1 global warming: energy security: hard choices ahead. what christians can do thetford and rockland...
TRANSCRIPT
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*Global Warming: Energy Security: Hard Choices Ahead. What Christians can doThetford and Rockland Deanery 20th November 2008Norwich South Deanery 27th November 2008Keith Tovey: Lay Chairman, Norwich East Deanery
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Background: the evidence of Climate ChangeHard Choices facing usRaising AwarenessTechnical OpportunitiesOpportunities for the Church and CommunityHow Churches can Respond to Climate Change Background: the evidence of Climate Change*
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**Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide
Chart1
195819581958195819581958315.86195819581958195819581958
195919591959195919591959316.55195919591959195919591959
196019601960196019601960318.18196019601960196019601960
196119611961196119611961318.58196119611961196119611961
196219621962196219621962319.61196219621962196219621962
196319631963196319631963319.74196319631963196319631963
196419641964196419641964320.44196419641964196419641964
196519651965196519651965321.21196519651965196519651965
196619661966196619661966322.4196619661966196619661966
196719671967196719671967322.55196719671967196719671967
196819681968196819681968324.14196819681968196819681968
196919691969196919691969325.89196919691969196919691969
197019701970197019701970326.35197019701970197019701970
197119711971197119711971327.37197119711971197119711971
197219721972197219721972328.05197219721972197219721972
197319731973197319731973330.87197319731973197319731973
197419741974197419741974331.18197419741974197419741974
197519751975197519751975331.91197519751975197519751975
197619761976197619761976333.05197619761976197619761976
197719771977197719771977334.93197719771977197719771977
197819781978197819781978336.54197819781978197819781978
197919791979197919791979337.73197919791979197919791979
198019801980198019801980339.56198019801980198019801980
198119811981198119811981340.49198119811981198119811981
198219821982198219821982342.06198219821982198219821982
198319831983198319831983343.99198319831983198319831983
198419841984198419841984345.4198419841984198419841984
198519851985198519851985346.56198519851985198519851985
198619861986198619861986347.94198619861986198619861986
198719871987198719871987349.52198719871987198719871987
198819881988198819881988352.39198819881988198819881988
198919891989198919891989353.9198919891989198919891989
199019901990199019901990354.82199019901990199019901990
199119911991199119911991356.17199119911991199119911991
199219921992199219921992357.03199219921992199219921992
199319931993199319931993357.57199319931993199319931993
199419941994199419941994359.55199419941994199419941994
199519951995199519951995361.9199519951995199519951995
199619961996199619961996363.65199619961996199619961996
199719971997199719971997364.47199719971997199719971997
199819981998199819981998367.64199819981998199819981998
199919991999199919991999369.25199919991999199919991999
200020002000200020002000370.04200020002000200020002000
200120012001200120012001371.48200120012001200120012001
200220022002200220022002373.87200220022002200220022002
Jan.
Feb.
March
April
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Annual
(ppm)
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
Sheet1
Jan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.AnnualAnnual-Fit
1958-99.99-99.99315.71317.45317.5-99.99315.86314.93313.19-99.99313.34314.67-99.99-99.99
1959315.58316.47316.65317.71318.29318.16316.55314.8313.84313.34314.81315.59315.98316
1960316.43316.97317.58319.03320.03319.59318.18315.91314.16313.83315316.19316.91316.91
1961316.89317.7318.54319.48320.58319.78318.58316.79314.99315.31316.1317.01317.65317.63
1962317.94318.56319.69320.58321.01320.61319.61317.4316.26315.42316.69317.69318.45318.46
1963318.74319.08319.86321.39322.24321.47319.74317.77316.21315.99317.07318.36318.99319.02
1964319.57-99.99-99.99-99.99322.23321.89320.44318.7316.7316.87317.68318.71-99.99319.52
1965319.44320.44320.89322.13322.16321.87321.21318.87317.81317.3318.87319.42320.03320.09
1966320.62321.59322.39323.7324.07323.75322.4320.37318.64318.1319.79321.03321.37321.34
1967322.33322.5323.04324.42325324.09322.55320.92319.26319.39320.72321.96322.18322.13
1968322.57323.15323.89325.02325.57325.36324.14322.11320.33320.25321.32322.9323.05323.11
1969324324.42325.64326.66327.38326.7325.89323.67322.38321.78322.85324.12324.62324.6
1970325.06325.98326.93328.13328.07327.66326.35324.69323.1323.07324.01325.13325.68325.65
1971326.17326.68327.18327.78328.92328.57327.37325.43323.36323.56324.8326.01326.32326.32
1972326.77327.63327.75329.72330.07329.09328.05326.32324.84325.2326.5327.55327.46327.52
1973328.54329.56330.3331.5332.48332.07330.87329.31327.51327.18328.16328.64329.68329.61
1974329.35330.71331.48332.65333.09332.25331.18329.4327.44327.37328.46329.58330.25330.29
1975330.4331.41332.04333.31333.96333.59331.91330.06328.56328.34329.49330.76331.15331.16
1976331.74332.56333.5334.58334.87334.34333.05330.94329.3328.94330.31331.68332.15332.18
1977332.92333.42334.7336.07336.74336.27334.93332.75331.58331.16332.4333.85333.9333.88
1978334.97335.39336.64337.76338.01337.89336.54334.68332.76332.54333.92334.95335.5335.52
1979336.23336.76337.96338.89339.47339.29337.73336.09333.91333.86335.29336.73336.85336.89
1980338.01338.36340.08340.77341.46341.17339.56337.6335.88336.01337.1338.21338.69338.67
1981339.23340.47341.38342.51342.91342.25340.49338.43336.69336.85338.36339.61339.93339.95
1982340.75341.61342.7343.56344.13343.35342.06339.82337.97337.86339.26340.49341.13341.09
1983341.37342.52343.1344.94345.75345.32343.99342.39339.86339.99341.16342.99342.78342.75
1984343.7344.51345.28347.08347.43346.79345.4343.28341.07341.35342.98344.22344.42344.44
1985344.97346347.43348.35348.93348.25346.56344.69343.09342.8344.24345.56345.9345.86
1986346.29346.96347.86349.55350.21349.54347.94345.91344.86344.17345.66346.9347.15347.14
1987348.02348.47349.42350.99351.84351.25349.52348.1346.44346.36347.81348.96348.93348.99
1988350.43351.72352.22353.59354.22353.79352.39350.44348.72348.88350.07351.34351.48351.44
1989352.76353.07353.68355.42355.67355.13353.9351.67349.8349.99351.3352.53352.91352.94
1990353.66354.7355.39356.2357.16356.22354.82352.91350.96351.18352.83354.21354.19354.19
1991354.72355.75357.16358.6359.34358.24356.17354.03352.16352.21353.75354.99355.59355.62
1992355.98356.72357.81359.15359.66359.25357.03355353.01353.31354.16355.4356.37356.36
1993356.7357.16358.38359.46360.28359.6357.57355.52353.7353.98355.33356.8357.04357.1
1994358.36358.91359.97361.26361.68360.95359.55357.49355.84355.99357.58359.04358.88358.86
1995359.96361361.64363.45363.79363.26361.9359.46358.06357.75359.56360.7360.88360.9
1996362.05363.25364.03364.72365.41364.97363.65361.49359.46359.6360.76362.33362.64362.58
1997363.18364364.57366.35366.79365.62364.47362.51360.19360.77362.43364.28363.76363.84
1998365.32366.15367.31368.61369.3368.87367.64365.77363.9364.23365.46366.97366.63366.58
1999368.15368.86369.58371.12370.97370.33369.25366.91364.6365.09366.63367.96368.29368.28
2000369.08369.4370.45371.59371.75371.62370.04368.04366.54366.63368.2369.43369.4369.39
2001370.17371.39372372.75373.88373.17371.48369.42367.83367.96369.55371.1370.89370.91
2002372.29372.94373.38374.71375.4375.26373.87371.35370.57370.1371.93373.63372.95372.93
Sheet1
Jan.
Feb.
March
April
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Annual
(ppm)
Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere
hawaii
YearJan.Feb.MarchAprilMayJuneJulyAug.Sept.Oct.Nov.Dec.AnnualAnnual-Fit
1958-99.99-99.99315.71317.45317.5-99.99315.86314.93313.19-99.99313.34314.67-99.99-99.99
1959315.58316.47316.65317.71318.29318.16316.55314.8313.84313.34314.81315.59315.98316
1960316.43316.97317.58319.03320.03319.59318.18315.91314.16313.83315316.19316.91316.91
1961316.89317.7318.54319.48320.58319.78318.58316.79314.99315.31316.1317.01317.65317.63
1962317.94318.56319.69320.58321.01320.61319.61317.4316.26315.42316.69317.69318.45318.46
1963318.74319.08319.86321.39322.24321.47319.74317.77316.21315.99317.07318.36318.99319.02
1964319.57-99.99-99.99-99.99322.23321.89320.44318.7316.7316.87317.68318.71-99.99319.52
1965319.44320.44320.89322.13322.16321.87321.21318.87317.81317.3318.87319.42320.03320.09
1966320.62321.59322.39323.7324.07323.75322.4320.37318.64318.1319.79321.03321.37321.34
1967322.33322.5323.04324.42325324.09322.55320.92319.26319.39320.72321.96322.18322.13
1968322.57323.15323.89325.02325.57325.36324.14322.11320.33320.25321.32322.9323.05323.11
1969324324.42325.64326.66327.38326.7325.89323.67322.38321.78322.85324.12324.62324.6
1970325.06325.98326.93328.13328.07327.66326.35324.69323.1323.07324.01325.13325.68325.65
1971326.17326.68327.18327.78328.92328.57327.37325.43323.36323.56324.8326.01326.32326.32
1972326.77327.63327.75329.72330.07329.09328.05326.32324.84325.2326.5327.55327.46327.52
1973328.54329.56330.3331.5332.48332.07330.87329.31327.51327.18328.16328.64329.68329.61
1974329.35330.71331.48332.65333.09332.25331.18329.4327.44327.37328.46329.58330.25330.29
1975330.4331.41332.04333.31333.96333.59331.91330.06328.56328.34329.49330.76331.15331.16
1976331.74332.56333.5334.58334.87334.34333.05330.94329.3328.94330.31331.68332.15332.18
1977332.92333.42334.7336.07336.74336.27334.93332.75331.58331.16332.4333.85333.9333.88
1978334.97335.39336.64337.76338.01337.89336.54334.68332.76332.54333.92334.95335.5335.52
1979336.23336.76337.96338.89339.47339.29337.73336.09333.91333.86335.29336.73336.85336.89
1980338.01338.36340.08340.77341.46341.17339.56337.6335.88336.01337.1338.21338.69338.67
1981339.23340.47341.38342.51342.91342.25340.49338.43336.69336.85338.36339.61339.93339.95
1982340.75341.61342.7343.56344.13343.35342.06339.82337.97337.86339.26340.49341.13341.09
1983341.37342.52343.1344.94345.75345.32343.99342.39339.86339.99341.16342.99342.78342.75
1984343.7344.51345.28347.08347.43346.79345.4343.28341.07341.35342.98344.22344.42344.44
1985344.97346347.43348.35348.93348.25346.56344.69343.09342.8344.24345.56345.9345.86
1986346.29346.96347.86349.55350.21349.54347.94345.91344.86344.17345.66346.9347.15347.14
1987348.02348.47349.42350.99351.84351.25349.52348.1346.44346.36347.81348.96348.93348.99
1988350.43351.72352.22353.59354.22353.79352.39350.44348.72348.88350.07351.34351.48351.44
1989352.76353.07353.68355.42355.67355.13353.9351.67349.8349.99351.3352.53352.91352.94
1990353.66354.7355.39356.2357.16356.22354.82352.91350.96351.18352.83354.21354.19354.19
1991354.72355.75357.16358.6359.34358.24356.17354.03352.16352.21353.75354.99355.59355.62
1992355.98356.72357.81359.15359.66359.25357.03355353.01353.31354.16355.4356.37356.36
1993356.7357.16358.38359.46360.28359.6357.57355.52353.7353.98355.33356.8357.04357.1
1994358.36358.91359.97361.26361.68360.95359.55357.49355.84355.99357.58359.04358.88358.86
1995359.96361361.64363.45363.79363.26361.9359.46358.06357.75359.56360.7360.88360.9
1996362.05363.25364.03364.72365.41364.97363.65361.49359.46359.6360.76362.33362.64362.58
1997363.18364364.57366.35366.79365.62364.47362.51360.19360.77362.43364.28363.76363.84
1998365.32366.15367.31368.61369.3368.87367.64365.77363.9364.23365.46366.97366.63366.58
1999368.15368.86369.58371.12370.97370.33369.25366.91364.6365.09366.63367.96368.29368.28
2000369.08369.4370.45371.59371.75371.62370.04368.04366.54366.63368.2369.43369.4369.39
2001370.17371.39372372.75373.88373.17371.48369.42367.83367.96369.55371.1370.89370.91
2002372.29372.94373.38374.71375.4375.26373.87371.35370.57370.1371.93373.63372.95372.93
Monthly values areexpressed inparts per million (ppm) andreported in the 1999SIO manometricmole
fraction scale. The monthly values have beenadjusted to the 15thof eachmonth.Missing values are
denoted by-99.99.The "annual"averageis thearithmetic mean of the twelve monthly values. Inyears
withone ortwo missing monthlyvalues,annualvalueswere calculated by substituting afit value
(4-harmonics withgain factor and spline) forthat month andthen averaging the twelve monthlyvalues.
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*Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood
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*Is Global Warming Man Made?Not according to Channel 4: The Great Global Warming Swindle!Conveniently omits recent data post 1980 and 10 hottest years
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*Last Ice AgeHumans are forcing the system in a new way. CO2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO2 has not been this high in more than half a million years.Last InterglacialIce ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earths orbital clock. changes in the sunlight received).350300250200 Carbon Dioxide (ppmv)[Adapted from Figure 6.3, IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]1800today*Long Term Carbon Dioxide Record
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*Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.OfficeIs Global Warming man made?Prediction: Anthropogenic onlyNot a good match between 1920 and 1970 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity*
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*Is Global Warming man made?Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.OfficePrediction: Natural onlygood match until 1960 Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity*
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*Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.OfficePrediction: Natural and AnthropogenicGenerally a good matchPredictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activityIs Global Warming man made?*
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*(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)Consequence of ~ 1m riseConsequence of ~ 6m riseNorwich City would be playing water polo!
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*Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar RegionNASA satellite imagery
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 20% reduction in 24 years20 24 1979 - 2003*
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Background: the evidence of Climate ChangeHard Choices facing usRaising AwarenessTechnical OpportunitiesOpportunities for the Church and CommunityHow Churches can Respond to Climate Change *
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Comparison of Discoveries and DemandWe need to consider alternatives now*
Chart1
7.6219301.45
8.60619311.5695
3.17119321.689
3.16719331.7356
2.6719341.7822
9.58119351.8288
11.0619361.8754
34.76119371.922
31.54719382.083
36.48219392.244
14.01119402.405
10.05619412.5012
3.14119422.5974
3.87819432.6936
7.82619442.7898
8.31619452.886
6.83219463.13
51.27419473.374
56.20919483.618
56.69919493.862
20.89419504.10575
16.44719514.3495
27.55519524.59325
21.37919534.837
28.53719545.2453333333
25.07719555.6536666667
35.19719566.062
41.1219576.368
45.56219586.674
38.15219596.98
47.28519607.286
50.24419617.925
49.519628.564
55.42319639.203
55.4219649.842
56.652196510.481
37.39196611.52725
33.683196712.5735
32.447196813.61975
36.64196914.666
35.156197016.144
30.956197117.622
26.261197218.358
26.012197320.333
28.23197420.823
35.141197518.845
41.559197620.571
41.308197721.556
37.602197821.553
28.463197921.55
25.004198022.042
20.803198120.557
18.578198219.567
17.587198318.576
16.843198418.82
14.618198519.064
14.368198619.554
14.859198719.6745
17.819198819.795
16.829198920.534
21.763199021.026
18.058199121.02
15.091199221.0993333333
8.175199321.1786666667
7.184199421.258
8.169199521.749
8.413199622.24
9.398199722.6085
10.876199822.977
14.577199923.221
15.067200022.23
11.855200123.461
7.655200222.964
5.677200322.467
8.883200424.442
8.139200524.934
20067.6422006
20077.3922007
20086.6482008
20096.6462009
20105.9022010
20115.1582011
20125.1552012
20134.9052013
20144.162014
20153.6622015
20163.4122016
20173.1622017
20183.162018
20192.9092019
20202.82020
20212.72021
20222.62022
20232.52023
20242.42024
20252.32025
20262.22026
20272.12027
20281.6482028
20291.6462029
20301.6432030
20311.3942031
20321.1432032
20330.8942033
20340.892034
20350.8882035
20360.6382036
20370.6342037
20380.8792038
20390.652039
20400.6262040
20410.3752041
20420.3732042
20430.372043
20440.3672044
20450.3652045
20460.3622046
20470.3582047
20480.3562048
20490.3552049
20500.352050
actual discoveries
projected discoveries
demand
bilion barrels per annum
PEAKOIL2
7 5000 1 1 2 20000 (7(F8.31H))-19.58329.49649.07924449.1803278689
0.1185.8334.0519300205060actual discoveriesprojected discoveriesdemand26016
-57.285-19.58300000193019307.6219301.45
-56.77-18.597000001930.51519318.6061.5695
-55.749-24.032000001931.53619323.17119321.689229317.6229508197
-54.549-24.036000001932.73619333.16719331.73562600
-53.349-24.533000001933.93619342.6719341.78221660
-52.654-17.622000001934.63119359.58119351.82882923156.8032786885
-51.795-16.143000001935.49193611.0619361.8754
-50.7327.558000001936.553193734.76119371.922
-49.3654.344000001937.92193831.54719382.083
-48.5019.279000001938.784193936.48219392.244
-47.505-13.192000001939.78194014.01119402.405
-46.139-17.147000001941.146194110.05619412.5012
-45.634-24.062000001941.65119423.14119422.5974
-44.433-23.325000001942.85219433.87819432.6936
-43.571-19.377000001943.71419447.82619442.7898
-42.37-18.887000001944.91519458.31619452.886
-41.515-20.371000001945.7719466.83219463.13
-40.59424.071000001946.691194751.27419473.374
-39.7329.006000001947.555194856.20919483.618
-38.18729.496000001949.098194956.69919493.862
-37.381-6.309000001949.904195020.89419504.10575
-36.358-10.756000001950.927195116.44719514.3495
-35.4850.352000001951.8195227.55519524.59325
-34.466-5.824000001952.819195321.37919534.837
-33.5981.334000001953.687195428.53719545.2453333333
-32.403-2.126000001954.882195525.07719555.6536666667
-31.367.994000001955.925195635.19719566.062
-30.49413.917000001956.791195741.1219576.368
-29.63118.359000001957.654195845.56219586.674
-28.78410.949000001958.501195938.15219596.98
-27.74320.082000001959.542196047.28519607.286
-26.36723.041000001960.918196150.24419617.925
-25.3422.297000001961.945196249.519628.564
-24.30328.22000001962.982196355.42319639.203
-23.44528.217000001963.84196455.4219649.842
-22.58729.44900000peak1964.698196556.652196510.481
-21.41410.187000001965.871196637.39196611.52725
-20.3916.48000001966.894196733.683196712.5735
-19.7075.244000001967.578196832.447196813.61975
-18.5019.437000001968.784196936.64196914.666
-17.4747.953000001969.811197035.15616.144
-16.6233.753000001970.662197130.956197117.622
-15.43-0.942000001971.855197226.261197318.358
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