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Getting PublishedGetting PublishedCAS Annual Meeting (C12)CAS Annual Meeting (C12)

November 15, 2006November 15, 2006

Moderator: Joanne Spalla, CAS VP Marketing & Communications

Panelists: Gary Josephson, Chair, Publications Management Board

Roger Hayne, CAS VP Research

Gary Venter, Associate Editor, Variance Journal

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OutlineOutline

Introduction SpallaTF on Publications SpallaOverview of CAS Publications

Josephson

Journal Editorial Process VenterWriting the Paper HayneQuestions

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CAS Centennial GoalCAS Centennial Goal

The CAS will be The CAS will be globallyglobally recognized as recognized as the preeminent resource in educating the preeminent resource in educating casualty actuaries and conducting casualty actuaries and conducting research in casualty actuarial science. research in casualty actuarial science. CAS members will be recognized as the CAS members will be recognized as the leading experts in the evaluation of leading experts in the evaluation of hazard risk and the hazard risk and the integrationintegration of of hazard risk with strategic, financial and hazard risk with strategic, financial and operational risk.operational risk.

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Task Force on Task Force on PublicationsPublications

RecommendationsRecommendations1.1. Remove papers from PCAS. Keep CAS-Remove papers from PCAS. Keep CAS-

specific content and add Yearbook content.specific content and add Yearbook content.

2.2. Create a new journal where refereed Create a new journal where refereed papers will be published. papers will be published.

3.3. Create a yearly Membership Directory as a Create a yearly Membership Directory as a separate publication available on request.separate publication available on request.

4.4. Encourage non-CAS members to publish in Encourage non-CAS members to publish in the new journalthe new journal; ; actively solicit articles actively solicit articles from around the world. from around the world.

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VarianceVarianceMission StatementMission Statement

VarianceVariance is a peer-reviewed journal published is a peer-reviewed journal published by the CAS to disseminate work of interest by the CAS to disseminate work of interest

to casualty actuaries worldwide. The to casualty actuaries worldwide. The journal's focus is original practical and journal's focus is original practical and

theoretical research in casualty actuarial theoretical research in casualty actuarial science. Significant survey or similar science. Significant survey or similar

articles are also considered for publication. articles are also considered for publication. Membership in the Casualty Actuarial Membership in the Casualty Actuarial

Society is Society is notnot a prerequisite for submitting a prerequisite for submitting papers to the journal and submission by papers to the journal and submission by

non-CAS members is encouraged. non-CAS members is encouraged.

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CAS PublicationsCAS Publications

Gary JosephsonGary Josephson

Chair, CAS Publications Chair, CAS Publications Management BoardManagement Board

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CAS PUBLICATIONSCAS PUBLICATIONSCURRENTCURRENT

PROCEEDINGSPROCEEDINGS FORUMFORUM NEWSLETTERSNEWSLETTERS YEARBOOKYEARBOOK

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PUBLICATIONS PUBLICATIONS MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT

BOARDBOARD Distinguish among types of papersDistinguish among types of papers

RefereedRefereed ReviewedReviewed OtherOther

Use CAS Website to showcase Use CAS Website to showcase publicationspublications

Make it easier for authors to submitMake it easier for authors to submit Establish publication policiesEstablish publication policies

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CAS PUBLICATIONSCAS PUBLICATIONS2007 and beyond2007 and beyond

VARIANCEVARIANCE ON LINE FORUMON LINE FORUM MONOGRAPHSMONOGRAPHS NEWSLETTERSNEWSLETTERS YEARBOOK/PROCEEDINGSYEARBOOK/PROCEEDINGS

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CAS PUBLICATIONS CAS PUBLICATIONS 2007 and beyond2007 and beyond

ON-LINE FORUMON-LINE FORUM Working PapersWorking Papers

Way to develop ideasWay to develop ideas Minimal reviewMinimal review (Almost) immediate posting(Almost) immediate posting Comments welcomed/encouragedComments welcomed/encouraged ““Grow up” to be Variance papersGrow up” to be Variance papers

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CAS PUBLICATIONS CAS PUBLICATIONS 2007 and beyond2007 and beyond

ON-LINE FORUM ON-LINE FORUM Call Papers/ Discussion PapersCall Papers/ Discussion Papers

Template for paper structureTemplate for paper structure No change in processNo change in process Oversight by CAS committeesOversight by CAS committees

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CAS PUBLICATIONS CAS PUBLICATIONS 2007 and beyond2007 and beyond

ON-LINE FORUM ON-LINE FORUM Research Working PartiesResearch Working Parties

Publish when completedPublish when completed Oversight by Research CommitteesOversight by Research Committees Extract ideas for Extract ideas for VarianceVariance papers papers

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CAS PUBLICATIONS CAS PUBLICATIONS 2007 and beyond2007 and beyond

CAS MONOGRAPH SERIESCAS MONOGRAPH SERIES Top quality papers – but not fitting Top quality papers – but not fitting

Variance Variance criteria criteria Research Working Party ReportsResearch Working Party Reports Study NotesStudy Notes Research Committee CompilationsResearch Committee Compilations OtherOther

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CAS PUBLICATIONS CAS PUBLICATIONS 2007 and beyond2007 and beyond

NEWSLETTERS AND YEARBOOK NEWSLETTERS AND YEARBOOK Newsletters – no changeNewsletters – no change

Actuarial ReviewActuarial Review Future FellowsFuture Fellows Yearbook Yearbook

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VarianceVariance::Advancing the Science Advancing the Science

of Riskof Risk

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Variance Editorial Variance Editorial BoardBoard

Curtis Gary DeanCurtis Gary Dean

Editor in ChiefEditor in Chief

Dale EdlefsonDale Edlefson

Associate Editor—Copy EditingAssociate Editor—Copy Editing

Rich FeinRich Fein

Associate Editor—Copy EditingAssociate Editor—Copy Editing

Gary VenterGary Venter

Associate Editor—DevelopmentAssociate Editor—Development

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What is Applied What is Applied Research?Research?

Gary G. Venter, FCASGary G. Venter, FCAS

Associate Editor, CAS Journal Associate Editor, CAS Journal Editorial BoardEditorial Board

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Applied vs. Theoretical Applied vs. Theoretical ResearchResearch

AppliedApplied Tries to solve a real-world problem Tries to solve a real-world problem

someone is actually havingsomeone is actually having TheoreticalTheoretical

Tries to generalize a theoremTries to generalize a theorem

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Theoretical Theoretical Research ApproachResearch Approach

Take a theorem of interestTake a theorem of interest Weaken one of the assumptionsWeaken one of the assumptions Try to figure out how that weakens Try to figure out how that weakens

the resultthe result

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Practical Research Practical Research ApproachApproach

Try to apply an algorithm to a Try to apply an algorithm to a problem you haveproblem you have

If it doesn’t seem to work:If it doesn’t seem to work: Look at the assumptions of the Look at the assumptions of the

algorithmalgorithm Try to figure out which ones don’t hold Try to figure out which ones don’t hold

for your applicationfor your application Try to develop adjustments that will Try to develop adjustments that will

make sense in your casemake sense in your case

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Communication is Communication is KeyKey

Academic research can produce new Academic research can produce new methods that will show the way to methods that will show the way to better applicationsbetter applications

This can come from any of many This can come from any of many different disciplinesdifferent disciplines

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MoralMoral

Keep your eye on the ball, your Keep your eye on the ball, your shoulder to the wheel, your nose to shoulder to the wheel, your nose to the grindstone and your ear on the the grindstone and your ear on the track.track. Then see if you can get any work done in Then see if you can get any work done in

that positionthat position

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Challenges for CASChallenges for CAS

Global Global preeminent resource in preeminent resource in casualty actuarial sciencecasualty actuarial science

IntegrationIntegration of hazard risk with of hazard risk with strategic, financial and strategic, financial and operational riskoperational risk

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Expanding TopicsExpanding Topics

Advanced credibilityAdvanced credibility Hachemeister 1975 – Regression credibilityHachemeister 1975 – Regression credibility Greg Taylor – Credibility in function spacesGreg Taylor – Credibility in function spaces Applicable in classification ratemakingApplicable in classification ratemaking Little PCAS attention to dateLittle PCAS attention to date

Predictive modelingPredictive modeling Big in classification ratemakingBig in classification ratemaking CAS starting to pay attentionCAS starting to pay attention

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More …More …

Stochastic ReservingStochastic Reserving Papers starting to appearPapers starting to appear Future of loss reserving is stochasticFuture of loss reserving is stochastic

Catastrophe lossesCatastrophe losses Big part of insuranceBig part of insurance Actuaries do not understand models very wellActuaries do not understand models very well Maybe survey papers would be helpfulMaybe survey papers would be helpful Basis risk, stratified sampling, … possible Basis risk, stratified sampling, … possible

issuesissues

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Financial ModelingFinancial Modeling Part of ERM we are less up onPart of ERM we are less up on Asset modelingAsset modeling Foreign exchange modelingForeign exchange modeling Capital needs and value of capitalCapital needs and value of capital Pricing of risk – incomplete market Pricing of risk – incomplete market

martingalesmartingales Value of risk transferValue of risk transfer Risk-adjusted profitability by lineRisk-adjusted profitability by line

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Challenges for Challenges for EditorsEditors

Getting papers submitted on these topicsGetting papers submitted on these topics Finding reviewers who can evaluate Finding reviewers who can evaluate

themthem Overcoming bias towards status-quoOvercoming bias towards status-quo

New paper – “Method A Sucks”New paper – “Method A Sucks” Proof – Hemi-semi-demi groups on manifoldsProof – Hemi-semi-demi groups on manifolds Send to reviewer who is expert on method ASend to reviewer who is expert on method A

Reviewer makes 60% of revenue on method AReviewer makes 60% of revenue on method A Doesn’t know anything about hemi-demi-semi Doesn’t know anything about hemi-demi-semi

groupsgroups Rejects paperRejects paper

It happens – but we need to try to minimizeIt happens – but we need to try to minimize

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So You Wanna Be So You Wanna Be A Writer?A Writer?

Roger M. Hayne, FCAS, MAAARoger M. Hayne, FCAS, MAAA

CAS VP - ResearchCAS VP - Research

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What Do You Need?What Do You Need?

One or more ideasOne or more ideas The ability to string two or more words The ability to string two or more words

together in a coherent sentencetogether in a coherent sentence PersistencyPersistency Knowledge of the guidelines for Knowledge of the guidelines for

submission to your target publicationsubmission to your target publication Thick SkinThick Skin

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Stringing Words Stringing Words TogetherTogether

1.1. Abstract summarizing the resultsAbstract summarizing the results

2.2. Brief summary of research on the topic Brief summary of research on the topic - what has been done so far and how - what has been done so far and how the new paper improves upon thatthe new paper improves upon that

3.3. Outline of the remainder of the paperOutline of the remainder of the paper

4.4. Development of the results (with Development of the results (with technical details in an appendices)technical details in an appendices)

5.5. Summary of what has been doneSummary of what has been done

6.6. References and any appendices.References and any appendices.

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The IdeaThe Idea

Does not have to be “earth shattering”Does not have to be “earth shattering” Think concise – a long treatise will Think concise – a long treatise will

probably not make it into probably not make it into VarianceVariance The idea should be practically soundThe idea should be practically sound A strong foundation in theory is always A strong foundation in theory is always

helpful but not necessary for helpful but not necessary for VarianceVariance For For VarianceVariance practical is the key practical is the key

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The ProcessThe Process

Write it downWrite it down Read it overRead it over Read it againRead it again Get someone else to read itGet someone else to read it Get someone else to read it againGet someone else to read it again You get the picture – give the editors a You get the picture – give the editors a

break, get them something that is break, get them something that is reasonably polishedreasonably polished It is always a good ideaIt is always a good idea It lessens the chance for outright rejectionIt lessens the chance for outright rejection

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The Process – Part The Process – Part DeuxDeux

Format and clean up the paperFormat and clean up the paper Pay careful attention to the Pay careful attention to the

guidelines for publication in your guidelines for publication in your target publicationtarget publication

Send the “completed” manuscript to Send the “completed” manuscript to the appropriate person (see guides the appropriate person (see guides for submission)for submission)

WaitWait

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Journal TimelineJournal Timeline

Paper Submitted Initial Screening 1-2 weeks

Peer Review Process 1st review: 6-10 weeks (subsequent reviews 3-6 weeks each)

Decision on Paper (Accepted/Rejected)

Author Revision & Resubmission

2 to 6+ weeks

Manuscript Copy Editing 5-6 weeks

Typesetting 3-4 weeks

Review of First Galley 3-5 weeks (subsequent reviews 2-3 weeks each)

Publication in Journal

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The Process – Part The Process – Part DreiDrei

Wait patiently (editors are busy Wait patiently (editors are busy actuaries too)actuaries too)

Generally the reply will fall into one of Generally the reply will fall into one of five categories:five categories: Accept as is (very rare)Accept as is (very rare) Accept with suggestions for improvementAccept with suggestions for improvement Accept conditionallyAccept conditionally Request resubmissionRequest resubmission RejectReject

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Thick SkinThick Skin

Suggestions by editors given in the Suggestions by editors given in the spirit of a high quality final paperspirit of a high quality final paper

Most are editorial (commas, Most are editorial (commas, spelling, grammar, etc.)spelling, grammar, etc.)

Sometimes reviewer(s) critical of Sometimes reviewer(s) critical of theory or concept presentedtheory or concept presented

You decide whether and what to You decide whether and what to changechange

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The ResponseThe Response Good idea to attempt to at least respond to each Good idea to attempt to at least respond to each

suggestionsuggestion ““Thought about it and decided not to change” is Thought about it and decided not to change” is

an appropriate responsean appropriate response Look at this as another opportunity to improve Look at this as another opportunity to improve

your paperyour paper Sometimes criticisms lead to new paths for Sometimes criticisms lead to new paths for

exploration (case in point my first exploration (case in point my first PCASPCAS paper) paper) Frank and open discussion can often resolve Frank and open discussion can often resolve

issues and allow publication (case in point my issues and allow publication (case in point my Service Contract paper)Service Contract paper)

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Then WaitThen Wait

Wait some moreWait some more Remember – editors are people too, Remember – editors are people too,

and busy people at that!!and busy people at that!! You may get another round of You may get another round of

suggestions, particularly if you suggestions, particularly if you significantly revamp the papersignificantly revamp the paper

You may get notification that the paper You may get notification that the paper has been accepted – congratulationshas been accepted – congratulations

You will then get a proof of the paper – You will then get a proof of the paper – time to read it again, you know the time to read it again, you know the drilldrill

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In PrintIn Print Paper finally appearsPaper finally appears If a If a VarianceVariance paper you get to present it paper you get to present it

at a CAS meeting at a CAS meeting Put together your presentationPut together your presentation Get ready for the encoreGet ready for the encore

The sequelThe sequel DiscussionsDiscussions FameFame Fortune??????Fortune??????

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Submission Submission InformationInformation

currentcurrent

http://www.casact.org/pubs/http://www.casact.org/pubs/

(coming soon)(coming soon)

www.VarianceJournal.orgwww.VarianceJournal.org

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QuestionsQuestions