1Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

Triple bottom line impacts of community energy initiatives Crossing disciplinary boundaries with Bayesian Networks

Philip A Leicester BSc DIS

School of Civil and Building Engineering Centre for Renewable Energy and Systems Technology

Loughborough University

2Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

Presentation Objectives

• Introduce the research project.• Describe the utility of Bayesian Networks as a

methodology for this problem domain.• Demonstrate the adoption of Solar PV and

impact on fuel poverty as a case study.• Highlight the future potential of the

methodology• Solicit feedback from domain experts!

3Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

Research Aim:

To develop and validate a methodology for the evaluation of the triple bottom line impacts of community energy initiatives.

4Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

5Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

• Problems are wicked

• Parameters are characterised by uncertainty

• All models are wrong

• Quants and quals

6Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

While fuel prices and low incomes are constituent factors, the real cause of fuel poverty is the energy inefficiency of the home .

B. Boardman 2012

7Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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....I find myself referring to reports published by CSE going back several years which presented findings that are extremely pertinent to the debates we are having now.

So one, some or all of the following must apply:

CSE is failing to communicate the things we’ve discovered;

‘the system’ (DECC, Ofgem, BIS, DoH and their former incarnations) isn’t listening to us;

‘the system’ is unable to assimilate evidence and analysis

Ian Preston, “Fuel Poverty – reasons for being Seriously unimpressed.” CSE 14 November 2012.

8Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

9Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

Credit to L. Jouffe/Bayesia

10Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

11Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

Thomas Bayes 1701-1761

Judae Pearl 1936

12Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

13Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

14Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

15Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

16Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

17Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

18Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

With Grateful thanks to Ben Anderson, CRESEI, Essex University

B. Anderson, “ESTIMATING SMALL AREA INCOME DEPRIVATION : AN ITERATIVE PROPORTIONAL FITTING APPROACH.” 2011.

PAY STATEMENT

19Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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20Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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21Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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23Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

Can solar PV help alleviate fuel poverty?

Walker, G., 2008. Decentralised systems and fuel poverty: Are there any links or risks? Energy Policy 36, 4514-4517.

24Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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YES 21.6%

YES 17.5%

25Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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26Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

Conclusion

•Bayesian Networks can propagate probabilistic causal relations and facilitate prognostic and diagnostic inference.

•Can combine expert opinion (subjective probability) with quantitative (frequentist probability) from multiple knowledge domains.

•Explicate a complex problem with intuitive causal map and systems thinking

•Facilitate decision making under uncertainty

But...

•Require rich data and conditional probabilities . . . we need to share data!

27Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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END

Thanks for listening

28Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

Questions / Feedback

More informationContact

p.a.leicester@lboro.ac.uk

29Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

30Fuel poverty in policy and practice - a postgraduate symposiumFriday 16th November 2012Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Leicester et al 2011