1. federal fire policy 2. strategic risk assessment 3. regional forester engagement 1 2 3
TRANSCRIPT
New Lexicon Being Used For Risk Based Decisions Prospect ~ Alternatives Fire Fighter Exposure Budget -- Hour/Days Course Of Action – Strategy To Be Implemented
2
1
Three Components of A Safe And Productive Unit
2
Fai
r or
Jus
t
Rep
ortin
g
Lear
ning
Fle
xibl
eRespect feedback
Be willing to share concerns
Be a student
Rules don’t and can’t cover every situation
Safety Culture
Watch for Weak Signals of Failure Suspicious of Simple Interpretations Focus on Ongoing Operations Capacity for Flex and Bounce Back Locate and Defer to Expertise
Principles of an HRO :3
Version # 3 (HRO = Highly Reliable Organization)
Risk Mgt
2
Helps Us Successfully Manage Risk During A Wildland Fire
During an incident…….From the Agency Administrator Perspective
Regional Forester Representative TeamRegional Forester Representative Team
Strategic Risk Assessment (SRA)
2
What Is Successful Mgt of Risk?
Safely Managing Inherent Risks In A Manner That Meets Reasonable Objectives With Least Exposure To Incident Responders.
2
Risk
Probability And Severity Of An Undesirable Outcome Linked To Hazards.
Hazards Undesirable Outcome
2
Exposure
Exposing Fire Fighters To Hazards That May Result In Injury Or Possibly Death
Aviation
Fire Fighters
Public
2
Be Cognizant Of Moving Risk To Private Sector
Three Levels of Risk Management
Unit
IMT
Operational
2
Strategic
Deliberate
Time Critical
Time Data Decision Space
Decision (COA)
COA = Course Of Action
Strategic Risk Assessment
Outline For Strategic Risk Assessment
1. Risk Assessment
2. Risk Analysis
3. Risk Communication
4. Risk Sharing
Risk Decision (COA)
Periodic Assessment
1 10Corporate Scale
2
See Template Handout
Preseason Work
COA = Course Of Action
Risk Assessment
What Values Are At Risk?
What Is The Likelihood Of Harm?
What Are The Consequences Of Harm?
What Are The Potential Benefits?
Etc
2
• RAVAR – Rapid Assessment Values At Risk• Natural Resources
• FSPro – Fire Spread Probability• RERAP – Rare Event Risk Assessment Process
Risk Analysis
What Are Your Objectives? What Alt Offers The Best Tradeoffs? How Much FF Exposure Will Be Required? What Are The Tradeoffs Of FF Exposure, Impacts
to the Public, Political Fallout, and Impacts to Natural Resource?
Prospect 1
PROSPECT INPUT COST EXPOSURE
Resource Type
A: # of Resource
UnitsB: Persons Per Resource Unit
C: Days Needed
Rate Per Day Total Rate
Exp Hrs/Ss/Day Exp Hrs/Day
Total Person-Hours
Exposure (Unadjusted) Ω
Total Person-Hours Exposure
(Adjusted)
T1 Crews 12 20 12 $ 7,447 $ 1,072,368 14 168 40,320 1.3 52,416
T2 IA Crews 22 20 10 $ 8,155 $ 1,794,100 14 140 61,600 1.0 61,600
T2 Crews 20 $ 8,155 $ - 14 0 0 1.1 0
Fellers 2 $ 1,465 $ - 14 0 0 1.0 0
Engines 3 $ 1,210 $ - 14 0 0 1.0 0
Dozers 1 $ 1,456 $ - 14 0 0 1.1 0
Water Tender(s) 1 $ 1,440 $ - 14 0 0 1.1 0
Fixed Wing A/C 2 $ 2,000 $ - 6 0 0 1.0 0
Type 1 Helicopters 1 $ 4,000 $ - 6 0 0 1.1 0
Type 2 Helicopters 1 $ 1,773 $ - 6 0 0 1.0 0
Type 3 Helicopters 1 $ 1,008 $ - 6 0 0 1.0 0
Overhead (line) $ 826 $ - 14 0 0 1.0 0
Overhead (camp) $ 826 $ - 14 0 0 1.0 0
Other: ______________ $ - 14 0 0 1.0 0
Totals 34 72 22 $ 2,866,468 308 101,920 114,016
Prospect 1 Totals:
Total Responder Exposure (Adjusted): Hours 114,016
Total Estimated Cost: $ 2,866,468
2
FF = Fire Fighter
Risk Communication
Have Stakeholders Been Consulted?Has Risk Assessment & Analysis Been Shared?Are Stakeholder’s Reactions Documented?
• Understanding• Degree Of Acceptance• Degree Of Support• Reactions• Concerns
2
Risk SharingDialogue Draft Decision With Oversight Officials
• Risk Assessment• Risk Analysis• Risk Communication
Example, Engagement with:• Regional Forester• Political
2
Risk Decision
Using Results From:1. Risk Assessment2. Risk Analysis3. Risk Communication4. Risk Sharing
Document The Formal Risk Decision:• Objectives: State Overall Objectives for Managing Wildfire• Decision: Course Of Action To Implement Desirable Prospect• Rationale:
Best Protects Life and Property Minimizes FF Exposure Required To Meet Objectives Reasonably Safe For FF To Implement
• Periodic Assessment: Document Your Intentions To Monitor.
2
WFDSS = WildFire Decision Support SystemFF = Fire Fighter
1.Assessment2.Analysis3.Communication4.Sharing Decision
SRA
Defines ObjectivesDocuments Decision and COAGuides Deliberate & Time Critical Risk AssessmentProvides Documentation For FLAME Act
Strategic Risk Assessment Summary:
COA = Course of ActionWFDSS = WildFire Decision Support System
2
1. Assessment2. Analysis3. Communication4. Sharing Decision
SRA(Unit)
(IMT)
(Operational)
SRA
Deliberate
Time Critical
Time Data Decision Space
Making SRA Value Added
Gather:• Line Officer• Fire Management Officer• Resource advisor(s)• Recorder
Discuss elements of SRA:1. Assessment2. Analysis3. Communication4. Sharing
Recorder:• Documents Discussion
Using SRA Template• Paste into WFDSS
Periodic Assessment
Early Warning Alert!Change is coming in FY11
2
National Changes For Funding Large WF
Among others things:For Type 1 And 2 Incidents, The Forest Service Requires Agency Administrators to Develop and Document Their Risk Management Decision, i.e. Follow SRA Process
Stems From Past Expenditures On Managing Wildfires & Impacts On Agency Budgets. Culminating In:
2
Fire Suppression Funding Changing - 2011+
Based On 5 Yr Moving Average Initial Attack and Extended Attack RF’s Accountable
Rebased To Reflect Actual Expenses
Reimburses T1 & T2 Fires Secretarial Concurrence Based On SRA Decisions Not Receiving Concurrence, Funded In Dispute
Requires A Presidential Declaration Audit Trail Of Risk Decisions Made For Type 1 And 2
Fires Is Used For Declaration
Preparedness
Regional Suppression
Accounts
FLAME Act Fund
Contingency Reserve Fund
2
(Continued)
?
CR?
How SRA Will Be Used
Type 1 & 2 Fires
2011 Continue with SRA
2010We
Practiced
FF safety
2
FLAME Act
1. Assessment2. Analysis3. Communication4. Sharing Decision
SRA
ReflectionsCommentsConcerns
Lets Have A Conversation