1

Electricity Use in California: Past Trends and Present Usage

Patterns

Rich Brown

http://enduse.lbl.gov/Projects/CAdata.html

May 2002

2

Overview Background Was CA’s demand growth unprecedented? Was CA’s demand growth unforeseen? How many houses can 1 MW supply? Which end uses contribute most to peak? How do we know all this? Looking forward

3

Background Origins in EET demand-response white paper Mainly based on CEC and FERC data Electricity use values cited here exclude T&D

losses, but include loads served by self-generation

Further data in Brown & Koomey (2002), forthcoming in Energy Policy

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Was demand growth unprecedented or unforeseen?

5

CA Electricity Consumption

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Other

Agricultural

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

TWh

6

CA Peak Load

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Other

Agricultural

Industrial

Commercial

Residential

GW

7

Was Demand Growth Unprecedented?

Growth slowed in the 90s Growth rates in 90s were lower than any time

except Depression and early 70s Absolute growth in consumption in 80s was

similar to 50s and 60s

8

Was Demand Growth Unforeseen?

As early as 1988, CEC overpredicted 2000 demand

Early 90s recession led to lower growth Root cause of power crisis was little new

generation added 1994-1997 in Western U.S. How accurate was the CEC forecast?

9

1987-2000 Electricity Consumption Growth

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 Forecast Actual

Growth (TWh)

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Agricultural

Other

10

1987-2000 Electricity Peak Load Growth

0

5

10

15

20

1990 Forecast Actual

Growth (GW)

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

AgriculturalOther

Peak load in Ag sector declined by 300 MW.

11

How Many Houses Can 1 MW Supply?

Conventional wisdom says 1000 houses On peak: 600 houses On average: 1,200 houses Rule of thumb can be misleading CA ISO now uses 750 houses Only relevant for dispatchable resources

12

CA Households per MW of Capacity

0

500

1000

1500

LADWP PG&E SCE SDG&E SMUD StatewideTotal

Number of households per average MW

Number of households per peak MW

households/MW

Source: CEC; 1999 data

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Which End Uses Contribute Most to Peak?

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1999 CA Building Sector Consumption and Peak Demand - Top 10 Highest-Peak End Uses

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Res. - AirConditioning

Com'l. - AirConditioning

Com'l. -Interior

Lighting

Com'l. - Other Res. -Miscellaneous

Res. -Refrigerator

Com'l. -Ventilation

Res. -Cooking

Res. - Dryer Com'l. -Refrigeration

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Peak Demand

Annual Consumption

Source: CEC Demand Analysis Office

Peak Demand (GW) Consumption (TWh)

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California 1999 Summer Peak-day Load

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Residual ("Other" Area)

Res. - Air Conditioning

Com'l. - Air Conditioning

Com'l. - Interior Lighting

Res. - Miscellaneous

Com'l. - Other

Res. - Refrigerator

Com'l. - Ventilation

Res. - Cooking

Res. - Clothes Dryer

Com'l. - Refrigeration

Remainder of BuildingssectorIndustrial Sector

Agriculture & OtherSector

Time of Day (hour starting)

System Peak

Demand (GW)

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1999 Residential Summer Peak-day Load

0

5

10

15

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Air Conditioning

Miscellaneous

Refrigerator

Cooking

Clothes Dryer

Domestic Hot Water

Television

Freezer

Dishwasher

Washer

Time of Day (hour starting)System Peak

Demand (GW)

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1999 Summer Peak-day Commercial Building Load

0

5

10

15

20

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Air Conditioning

Interior Lighting

Other

Ventilation

Refrigeration

Office Equipment

Domestic HotWaterExterior Lighting

Cooking

Time of Day (hour starting)

System Peak

Demand (GW)

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1999 Summer Peak-day Industry & Other Load

0

5

10

15

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Assembly Industry

Agriculture

Process Industry

Transportation

Water Pumping(DWR)

Other Industry

Street Lighting

Time of Day (hour ending)

System Peak

Demand (GW)

19

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How have end use shares changed over time?

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CA Residential Electricity Consumption (and Annual Growth Rate)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Miscellaneous

Refrigerator

Dryer

Air Conditioning

Domestic Hot Water

Space Heating

Cooking

Television

Freezer

Dishwasher

Washer

TWh

19751999

Total Residential Consumption:

1975: 44 TWh1999: 75 TWh

4.9%

1.2%

4.3%

0.4%

1.2%

0%

0.4%

0.3%

0.3%

4.6%

3.3%

(2.3% annual growth rate)

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A Note About the Data Empirical data sources

– Monthly consumption at customers’ meters– Hourly loads at various points in transmission grid– Hourly use and annual consumption by end use for

small samples of customers– Equipment ownership and usage

Aggregate use derived analytically Key uncertainties: end use load shapes,

diversity factors, building/equipment operation

23

Looking Forward Improve baseline estimates

– Update/improve load shape data– Incorporate data from interval meters

Reduce peak & make it more price-responsive– Which end uses/building components to target?

Big challenge: population and economic growth swamp efficiency improvements

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For further information see:

http://enduse.lbl.gov/Projects/CAdata.html

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Backup Slides

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Electricity Supply Profile for Typical Hot Summer Day

Source: CEC

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Source: CEC

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CEC Power Plant Permit Filings11,350 MW