1© dennis meadows, 2005 limits to growth - 33 years later a presentation at rivm april 15, 2005...

1© Dennis Meadows, 2005

Limits to Growth - 33 Years Later

A Presentation at RIVM

April 15, 2005Dennis Meadows

[email protected]


Main Conclusion in 1972“If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production and resource depletion (physical factors) continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.”


Poster Created for the 1972 Smithsonian Presentation


World Population


Industrial Production

Year


Index of World Metals Use


CO2 Concentration


#1 - Sustainable Development

Resources

Population

Pollution

Industrial OutputFood


#2 - Overshoot and Collapse

Resources

Population

Pollution

Industrial Output

Food


Outline of my Remarks

• History and goals of the new Limits to Growth

• Three differences in our analysis from 1972 to 2004

• Comparison of Limits to Growth with the Millennium Ecological Assessment

• What we can expect in the next ten years


History & Goals• Provide an updated textbook.• Fulfill an obligation to Donella Meadows.• Explain better our goals and conclusions and offer the model on

a disc.• Not change the world; not make money

Conclusions and the World3 computer simulation in 2004 are identical to what we presented in 1972 except for three changes


Three Changes

• In 1972 global population and material & energy useage were below sustainable levels; now they are above. In 1972 we needed to slow down before we overshot; now we need to get back down from being in overshoot.

• In 1972 the model showed a time of crises 50-70 years into the future; now the crises appear 10-30 years in the future.

• In 1972 we changed technology before it was needed and without cost; now we recognize the delays and the costs.


Five Areas of Potential Confusion

• Malthus was not wrong.

• Ingenuity alone does not solve problems.

• Limits to Growth did not predict any problems before 2000.

• Limits to Growth made no statements about fossil fuels of any sort. But Hubbard did, and he was right.

• Price is not a good indicator of long-term scarcity.


Problems Solved by Technology and the Market

Now Future

Bet

ter

----

--->

Next Evaluation

#1


Problems Not Solved by Technology and the Market

Now Future

Bet

ter

----

--->

Next Evaluation


US Oil Production Peaked in 1970

The US owns about 2% of the globe’s oil reserves, pumps about 9% of the annual production, and accounts for about 25% of the annual global consumption. In September, ‘04

US monthly oil production was the lowest in 55 years.


Global Oil Production will Probably Peak before 2020

Last year $8 billion invested in exploration by major oil companies discovered reserves with a present value of about $4 billion.


Relation to the Millennium Assessment - 2 Differences

• Effort: LtG took 12 people 18 months, MEA took about 1500 people, part time for 4 years

• Focus: LtG looked at future behavior of the total global system, MEA mainly looked at the past 50 years of ecosystems


Relation to the Millennium Assessment - 3 Agreements

• The current global system is above sustainable levels.

• The liklihood of collapse is increasing

• One can imagine policies that would solve these problems, but there is no evidence that these policies are being implemented.


Some Indicators of Overshoot• Deterioration in renewable resources - surface and ground water,

forests, fisheries, agricultural land.

• Rising levels of pollution.

• Growing demands for capital, resources, and labor by military and industry to secure, process, and defend resources.

• Investment in human resources (education, shelter, health care) postponed in order to provide immediate consumption and security demands.

• Rising debt; eroding goals for health and environment.

• Growing instability in natural ecosystems.

• Growing gap between rich and poor - between the powerful and the weak. Meadows, et. al. pp 176-177.


One Index of Overshoot - the Global Ecological Footprint

Year

Num

ber

of E

arth

s R

equi

red


Scientists & Overshoot

Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course. Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our current practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it will be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know. Fundamental changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our present course will bring about.

World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity signed by more than 1,600 scientists, including 102 Nobel laureates, from 70 countries, 1992.


National Development & Overshoot

Fifty-four nations, 30 percent of the 178 countries for which data were available in 2003, experienced negative average annual percent growth in their per capita gross domestic product for more than a decade during the period from 1990 to 2001.


Positive Feedback Causes Growth in Population and Industry


The Demographic Transition

Year

Pop

ulat

ion

in B

illi

ons

Bir

ths

& D

eath

s pe

r 10

00 p

er Y

ear


Total Population Added

Year

Mil

lion

s of

Peo

ple

Add

ed p

er Y

ear

Russia


Physical Flows

Resources Productive Capital

Emissions & Waste


Waste Fraction


Energy Requirements of Al & Fe


Cost of Emission Reductions


Capital Flows


What we can expect in the next 10-20 years


What Must Decline

Material & Level of Materials &

≈ (Population) x Std. Of Living x Energy

Energy Flows Person Level of SOL


Universal vs. Global

• Universal challenges affect everyone, but they can be solved locally– Soil erosion, ground water contamination, loss

of plant species, diversion of agricultural soils to construction sites

• Global challenges affect everyone, but they can only be solved through collective action– Nuclear proliferation, climate change, loss of

migratory bird species, epidemics


The Challenge of Man’s FutureWithin a period of time which is very short compared with the total span of human history, supplies of fossil fuels will almost certainly be exhausted. This loss will make man completely dependent upon waterpower, atomic energy, and solar energy for driving his machines. There are no fundamental physical laws which prevent such a transition, and it is quite possible that society will be able to make the change smoothly. But it is a transition that will happen only once during the lifetime of the human species. .. if machine civilization should, because of some catastrophe, stop functioning, it will probably never again come into existence. Harrison Brown, 1954, p.222


How Can We Prepare?• Increase the time horizon used in making choices.• Develop and promote non-economic indicators of success,

consistent with the need to reduce physical flows.• Develop ecoefficient technologies.• Take responsibility for others far away in time and space;

adopt collective rather than self-centered goals.• Prefer negotiation and compromise over violence and force.• Realize that uncertainties and mistakes are unavoidable.• Honor natural systems because of their inherent importance

and rights, not because they generate market returns.• Rely on precaution rather than correction. • Realize that change comes through complex intercon-

nections, not simple cause and effect. Educate for systems thinking.

1© dennis meadows, 2005 limits to growth - 33 years later a presentation at rivm april 15, 2005...

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