1 dedicated to making a difference vincent mages climate change initiatives vp lafarge...
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DEDICATED TO MAKING A DIFFERENCE
Vincent MagesClimate Change Initiatives VP
Lafarge
Greenhouse gas mitigation in the cement industry: a sectoral approach
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Some global convictions
Whatever Copenhagen concludes, CO2 is on top of the agenda, worldwide
Climate change first visible impacts Health /water management issues Energy security and access
No country will escape!
CO2 has a value CO2 emissions rights in EU now, in US soon Carbon taxes projects Incentives to improve energy efficiency CDMs …
CO2 has also a growing “marketing” value Carbon footprint becomes a selling point Energy efficient buildings Etc.
What does it mean in our industry?
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CO2: an environmental issue anda double business challenge
Clinker
Cements
Concretes
Other Building Materials
Construction modes
Building and Civil Engineering
CO2
CO2
CO2 reduction regulatory framework
Energy efficiency regulatory framework
““Carbon footprint”Carbon footprint”““Life Cycle Analysis” Life Cycle Analysis”
InnovationInnovationSolutionsSolutions
Illustrative
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• We cannot hide and expect regulations not to come: let’s be proactive!
• Potential international regulatory frameworks (CO2 reduction) will be combined with national regulatory frameworks (energy efficiency): we must work at international and national levels!
• CO2 regulations could impact our ability to meet, business wise, new downstream demand and needs in Buildings and Infrastructures: we must have our voice heard at UNFCCC negotiations level to have the most efficient “CO2 reduction regulatory framework” put in place!
First conclusions
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We, CSI members, have achieved a tremendous work, very positively considered,…
WRI/CSI CO2 protocol
GNR data base
Sectoral Approach Modeling
IEA
/ CS
I
Tech
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Sectoral Approach - What is it?
A combination of policies and measures, developed to enhance efficient, sector-by-sector, greenhouse gas mitigation, addressing data, policy, technology and capacity building within each sector.
1. International Cooperation with major sector actors to develop and share: appropriate sector tools, systems, data, best practices, UNFCCC crediting policies, benchmarking and technology development
2. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) ‘tuned’ to sector.Emission goals and policies could differ depending on national ambition, common
but differentiated responsibilities, and local circumstances
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Sectoral Approach - CSI Key Principles
A sectoral approach to GhG management must:
Work within the UNFCCC, compatible with existing and future mechanisms (e.g. ETS,CDM/JI);
Include key developed and developing economies;
Use simple metrics and standardized methodologies;
Use verified emissions data to track compliance;
Involve government to help set, monitor and enforce agreed goals;
Enhance new technology development, especially CCS
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Transport & Trade
CO2 Prices, Policies
Emissions Factors,Materials
Availability
Abatement Options
Model Global trade flows
CementDemand
Sector CO2 abatement
Sector CO2 emissions
Regional cement production
Distributional cost impacts
CO2 leakage effects
Transport CO2
Modeling Policy Options:from Principles to Practicalities
Caution: most models are false, some are useful
Results
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Policy scenarios evaluated:
Scenarios involve different mixes of carbon prices, mitigation options, national or regional carbon policies and commitments, etc.
Scope of international commitment post Kyoto
8 world regionsNo commitments Europe cap only Annex I caps Global goals Sectoral approach Global caps
Europe
Japan/Aus/NZ
North America
CIS
China
Asia excl China
Latin America
Africa/Middle East
Absolute CO 2 targets --
Emissions efficiency goals --
No commitments --
8 world regionsNo commitments Europe cap only Annex I caps Global goals Sectoral approach Global caps
Europe
Japan/Aus/NZ
North America
CIS
China
Asia excl China
Latin America
Africa/Middle East
Absolute CO 2 targets --
Emissions efficiency goals --
No commitments --
8 world regionsNo commitments Europe cap only Annex I caps Global goals Sectoral approach Global caps
Europe
Japan/Aus/NZ
North America
CIS
China
Asia excl China
Latin America
Africa/Middle East
Absolute CO 2 targets --
Emissions efficiency goals --
No commitments --
8 world regionsNo commitments Europe cap only Annex I caps Global goals Sectoral approach Global caps
Europe
Japan/Aus/NZ
North America
CIS
China
Asia excl China
Latin America
Africa/Middle East
Absolute CO 2 targets --
Emissions efficiency goals --
No commitments --
8 world regionsNo commitments Europe cap only Annex I caps Global goals Sectoral approach Global caps
Europe
Japan/Aus/NZ
North America
CIS
China
Asia excl China
Latin America
Africa/Middle East
Absolute CO 2 targets --
Emissions efficiency goals --
No commitments --
8 world regionsNo commitments Europe cap only Annex I caps Global goals Sectoral approach Global caps
Europe
Japan/Aus/NZ
North America
CIS
China
Asia excl China
Latin America
Africa/Middle East
Absolute CO 2 targets --
Emissions efficiency goals --
No commitments --
8 world regionsNo commitments Europe cap only Annex I caps Global goals Sectoral approach Global caps
Europe
Japan/Aus/NZ
North America
CIS
China
Asia excl China
Latin America
Africa/Middle East
Absolute CO 2 targets --
Emissions efficiency goals --
No commitments --
Scenarios involve different combinations of carbon prices, mitigation options, national or regional carbon policies and commitments. Many other policy combinations are possible.
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Model reviewed by IEA, LBNL and RITE
Comparison of scenario outputs: CO2 emissions projections
• Emissions increase in all cases from 2005-2030• Impacts occur late in the scenarios, if at all• Only ‘Global caps’ ‘Global goals’ & ‘a sectoral approach’ show impact on emissions
Cement demand forecast from International Cement Review and JP Morgan
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4 Levers for CO2 Reduction
Quantities shown are relative to the “no-commitments” baseline scenario in 2030
Global Caps Sectoral Approach(high CO2 price) (lower CO2 price)
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Trade and Carbon Leakage impacts
Changes in trade patterns, production location and CO2 emissions can occur when different carbon policies in different regions cause significant price differences for the same product.
Policy options are available to help reduce these market distortions
An effective sectoral approach should include specific policies to address this issue
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1. ‘Sectoral approach’ shows real impact from 2020 onwards, and seems to be the most practical to implement;
2. Greater worldwide sector CO2 abatement is possible under scenarios which include non-Annex I actions;
3. Abatement potential varies by region: hence nationally tailored approaches are key.
Energy efficiency lever is weak in cement industry. Alternative fuels and blending options are powerful but require national
policies
5. Risk of leakage (trade and CO2) exists where emissions are capped in one region and not in others.
Key conclusions from Model Studies
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Sectoral Approach: summary
Shows promise to help address climate mitigation with greater speed and scale.
Retains ability for growth If well designed, can permit different national carbon policies with
minimum distortion of trade flows Is a practical approach to engage business and key economies in
mitigation action. Needs national government policies and measures to help deliver
applied technology at national level. Requires good coordination with cement trade associations to
develop local and regional action.
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We, CSI members, have achieved a tremendous work, very positively considered,…
WRI/CSI CO2 protocol
GNR data base
Sectoral Approach Modeling
IEA
/ CS
I
Tech
no
log
y Ro
adm
ap
CD
M n
ew m
etho
dolo
gy
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… but
• The debates in Copenhagen will not end in December 2009: we must stay mobilized again in 2010 to promote, refine and adapt the Sectoral Approach proposition to NAMAs.
• As CSI, in cooperation with Trade Associations, throughout our international and national contacts, we have to be proactive and solution oriented
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You want to find out more details and discuss further sectoral approaches?
Let’s meet at 3:15 in the Zirconium room!!
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www.wbcsdcement.org
Thank you!