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Current Issues And Problems Encountered For Projections In The United States And Canada

Presented byPresented byMs. Rebecca Lee Tooly Ms. Rebecca Lee Tooly USEPA Office of Air Quality Planning & StandardsUSEPA Office of Air Quality Planning & StandardsEmissions Inventory and Analysis Group Emissions Inventory and Analysis Group

Marc DeslauriersMarc DeslauriersEnvironment CanadaEnvironment CanadaPollution Data Division Pollution Data Division Science and Technology BranchScience and Technology Branch

TFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsTFEIP Workshop on Emission ProjectionsThessaloniki, Greece, Thessaloniki, Greece, October 30-31, 2006 October 30-31, 2006

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How The Emission Projections Are Developed

Projected Emissions =

Current Emissions * Emission Growth Adjustments * Emission Control Adjustments

Emission growth adjustments account for parameters such as population, gross domestic products, technology efficiency improvements, energy consumption, land use, motor vehicle kilometers traveled, etc.

Emission control adjustments account for technological innovations, control technologies, substitution of inputs to production (e.g., fuel switching), equipment turnover, emission controls implemented to satisfy regulations, voluntary programs and other initiatives expected to reduce air emissions, etc.

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How The Emission Projections Are Developed

Different datasets are also used in the estimation of the future

emissions, which include:• Outputs from macro-economic models, energy supply and demand

models• National statistics/forecasts for fuel consumption by fuel type and

energy sector• National, state, and provincial trends for different industries• Industry specific market planning model that addresses capital

turnover and economically-motivated fuel switching (eg. power generation)

• Emission estimation models for on-road and non-road vehicles (account for equipment turnover, fuel efficiency, fuel switching)

• Data compiled from continuous emissions monitoring (CEMs)

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Changes in economic activity (typically growth) Changes in the mix of production activities within and

between economic sectors Changes in vintages of capital equipment Changes in population, energy use, land use, or motor

vehicle miles traveled Technological innovation may alter:

• Production processes for emission sources,• Control technologies available, • Substitution of inputs to production (e.g., fuel switching)

– Emission controls implemented to satisfy CAA regulations, and voluntary programs and other initiatives expected to reduce air emissions

Influences on future year emissions

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Data Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, US Census Bureau, and US Department of Energy.

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Problems With Past Projection Approaches

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USEPA

1 Sources: National Emissions Inventory and Regulatory Impact Analysis for the Ozone and PM NAAQS, 1997.

Comparison of 1997 PM NAAQS RIA Forecasts and NEI Actual EmissionsNon-EGU Stationary Sources Only1

Problems With Past Projection Approaches

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Current growth projection may not capture well:

Equipment replacement Newly installed emission control equipment Local and voluntary reduction measures Implementation of codes of practice

Problems With Past Projection

Approaches

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Acid Rain Program

Clean Air Nonroad DieselNOX SIP Call

CAIR

Regional Haze Rule/BART

National NOX and SO2 Emissions Trends

With Control Programs

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Future Year Trends

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EGUsHistorical and Projected Nationwide SO2 and NOx Emissions (million tons)

Future Year Trends

0

5

10

15

20

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mil

lio

n T

on

s

SO2

NOx

Source: EPA’s National Emissions Inventory and the Integrated Planning Model

Projected, with CAIR, CAMR, and CAVR

0

5

10

15

20

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Mil

lio

n T

on

s

SO2

NOx

Source: EPA’s National Emissions Inventory and the Integrated Planning Model

Projected, with CAIR, CAMR, and CAVR

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Problems With Past Projection Approaches

Forecast of continuing emission increases is inconsistent with trend in activity variables used to relate impact on emissions.

Application of growth in the general economy and consideration of nationally mandated emission controls overlooks important factors that influence emission trends.

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Improving the Approach Focus on sectors with large contributions to precursors of

ozone, PM, regional haze, and high risk toxics.

Research trends in technological innovation, capital turnover, fuel switching, and other activities that may have a significant impact on emissions.

Evaluate current available forecasting models capable of estimating local, regional, and national economic trends.

Examine the effect of removing emission declines attributable to national rules.

Develop models that better reflect historical and anticipated future trends for key stationary non-EGU sectors.

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Improving The Timeliness

The emission projections are developed by Environment Canada (inventory developers, economists)

A review process is used to finalize the emission projections

Reviewers include • Industry and policy experts within Environment Canada • Industry sector/industry association representatives• Emission inventory compilers in the provincial ministries of the

environment

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The review process is considered very valuable in the development of representative projections

Long delays in have been experienced in the review of the projections, delaying the publication of the final emission projections and their integration in the development of emission reduction policies

A new process is now being implemented in Canada for the review of the emission projections• Restriction of the review process to a 3 month period • Requiring adequate documentation (socio-economic

parameters, assumptions, models, etc.) from Environment Canada and from the reviewers requesting adjustments to the original projections

Improving The Timeliness