1 cornelius adebahr escp-eap european executive mba berlin, 25.01.2006 1 berlin and eastern europe...

1

Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

1

Berlin and Eastern EuropeBerlin and Eastern Europe

Berlin and Eastern Europe

Economic, Political, and Cultural Effects of Continuous

ChangeESCP-EAP European Executive MBA,

Class of 2006Berlin, January 25, 2006

2

Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

2


Berlin and Eastern Europe: The Economic, Political, and Cultural Effects of Continuous ChangeI. Facts about EU

Eastern Enlargement

II. Berlin: City of East and West?

III. Outlook

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

3


Past Enlargement

1952: F, I, D, B, NL, LUX

1973: GB, IRL, DK

1981: GR

1986: E, P

(1990: East Germany)

1995: S, SF, A

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

4


May 1, 2004Ten New Members: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary,

Slovenia, Malta, and Cyprus

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

5


Surface 34%Population 28%GDP 5%Average GDP per capita 18%

EU with 27 Member states

One third of the population will live in States with a per capita GDP below 90% of the EU average - compared to 1/6 in the present EU-15

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

6


Enlargement and Labour

Labour mobility is one of the Four Freedoms of the EU

However, some restrictions in some Member Statesfour up to seven years

regional or sectoral limitations possible

After two years, reassessment Spring 2006

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

7


Enlargement and MoneyBenefits of enlargment largely

outweigh (financial) cost

Financial Perspecitve 2007-13 still under discussion

10 new Members need to take on the EuroMaastricht criteria apply

Slovenia, Estonia, Lithuania ahead (2007?)

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

8


II. Berlin: East meets West?• The „Hub“: A failed vision of the

90s• Trade and Aid: The city and its

neighbours• Berlin: A microcosm of Eastern

Europe?• German unification: Still

unfinished business?

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

9


Berlin - an East-West hub?„Berlin is in the centre again! The Western part is no longer an unhappy island within the GDR. Berlin has been redeemed from being on the edge of the free Europe. Now, finally, can the united city become the hub of political, cultural, and economic exchange within Europe. “Eberhard Diepgen, former Berlin Mayor, 20. April 1991

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

10


Berlin - no East-West hub

• A Vision of early and mid-Nineties: Commercial, financial, and educational East-West Centre

• Competition with Vienna and Budapest and with major cities/regions in Germany

• But: Low overall export ratio (11%), plus trade deficit with e.g. Poland

• Berlin share of German exports to CEE fell from 2,28% (1995) to only 1,36 % (2004).

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

11


Berlin - no East-West hub• Structural problems of the city: large public sector

and high unemployment after 40 years of division• Little knowledge transfer from academia to

business: 4,25% R&D of GDP, but less patent applications (1.345 in 1995, 1.101 in 2003)

• „Berlin benefits less from Enlargement than Hamburg, Munich, Ruhr region“ (Berlin Chamber of Commerce, 2004)

• After 2004 Enlargement, no more „East-West special relations“ needed. Regional approach

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

12


Berlin trade - some figures• Top 5 Importing countries (2004, mEUR):

– USA: 682.0 – France: 658.1– Italy: 477.8, Netherlands: 441.0, Poland: 412.1

• Top 5 Exporting countries (2004, mEUR)– France: 868.5– UK: 851.1 – USA: 759.0, Italy: 702.4, Spain: 646.2

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

13


Berlin - Capital of united Germany

• Since 1949, Berlin has been capital

• 1991 „capital decision“

• 1999: Government moves from Bonn to Berlin

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

14


Berlin: „capital city“ of Germany?

• Bonn:– 2nd seat of government (10.200

staff vs. 8.800 in Berlin)

– UN city (12 programmes, 500 staff; major conferences)

• plus Frankfurt (banking, EBC), Stuttgart (car industry), Hamburg (media, port), Munich (TV), Dusseldorf (fashion) etc.

• one of the few European capitals that is not the country‘s economic centre

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

15


Berlin - A Multicultural Capital• On 3,3 mio. inhabitants, 450.000 (or 13,5%)

foreigners from 183 countries– only 9 UN Members not represented: Belize, Timor

Leste, Kiribati, Marshall-Islands, Mikronesia, Palau, Salomon Islands, Tuvalu, and Nauru

– 38.000 Poles - 1/3 of EU foreigners– 117.000 Turks - „largest Turkish city“ outside Turkey– 11.000 Vietnamese, 14.000 Russians, and 12.000 US-

Americans

• but less than Hamburg (15%), Cologne (18%), Munich (23%) or Frankfurt (26,5%)

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

16


Berlin in comparison

• More populous (and bigger: 900km2!) than Paris, Warsaw, Budapest, and Prague

• But: Less students (40 per 1.000 inhabitants) than Prague (62), Budapest (65), Paris (142) or Warsaw (165)

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

17


III. Outlook - An Attempt

• The City: Becoming Metropolitan?• Germany: Federalism and Reform• Europe: Enlargement continues

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Cornelius Adebahr

ESCP-EAPEuropean

Executive MBA

Berlin,25.01.2006

18


Thank you for your interest

and good luck!Cornelius Brökelmann

Political ConsultantBerlin, Germany

[email protected]

1 cornelius adebahr escp-eap european executive mba berlin, 25.01.2006 1 berlin and eastern europe...

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