1 consideration of air quality/climate linkages for analyses jason samenow and ben deangelo october...
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1
Consideration of Air Quality/Climate Linkages
for Analyses
Jason Samenow and Ben DeAngeloOctober 24, 2004
Climate Analysis BranchClimate Change Division
U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs
2
Climate Program Linkages
Integrated Assessment Models
Methane reduction
Role of Black Carbon/Organic Carbon Emissions
Land Use Change and Forestry
Integrated Environmental Strategies
3
Integrated Assessment Considerations
• Integrated Assessment Models– Tools for coupling climate and economic
systems to determine optimal policies– We participate in and co-chair Energy
Modeling Forum (EMF)– New focus on multi-gas approach– Air Quality has only been integrated into
models in rudimentary manner (SO2, some trop ozone)
4
CO2 Futures
Global CO2 (GtC) in Reference Scenario
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
AMIGA
CICERO
EDGE
GEMINI-E3
GRAPE
IMAGE
IPAC
MERGE
MESSAGE
MiniCAM
SGM
A1 (AIM)
A2 (ASF)
B1 (IMAGE)
B2 (IMAGE)
5
Methane Futures
Global Methane (BMTCE) in Reference Scenario
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
AMIGA
CICERO
EDGE
GEMINI-E3
GRAPE
IMAGE
IPAC
MERGE
MESSAGE
MiniCAM
SGM
A1 (AIM)
A2 (ASF)
B1 (IMAGE)
B2 (MESSAGE)
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EPA’s Voluntary Methane Programs
• OAP runs voluntary programs to reduce methane emissions– AgStar– Coalbed Methane Outreach Program– Landfill Methane Outreach Program– Natural Gas STAR– Methane to Markets
• Methane emissions have been reduced 5% below 1990 levels
• Methane (CH4) emission controls are “a powerful lever for reducing both global warming and air pollution via decreases in background tropospheric ozone” (Fiore et al., 2002)
7Courtesy John Reilly, MIT
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EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTION POLICIES ON GLOBAL CLIMATE
EFFECTS PARTIALLY CANCEL EACH OTHER
LOWER OZONE LESS WARMING & SEA LEVEL RISE
LOWER SOX AEROSOL MORE WARMING & SEA LEVEL RISE
LOWER OH LONGER CH4 LIFETIME
LARGER GWP
POTENTIALLY MORE WARMING & SEA RISE
MORE CARBON UPTAKE LESS WARMING & SEA RISE
LOWER BLACK CARBON (BC) ???
Courtesy John Reilly, MIT
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Black/Organic Carbon Considerations
• How important is BC/OC relative to other GHGs for climate?
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BC/OC Considerations
• How well can we measure BC/OC?– Inventories exist but uncertainties remain large
• Mitigation options– Integrated assessment may help ID synergies
and tradeoffs with GHG mitigation
• Climate or Air Quality Goal?– Remains unclear how and to what extent BC/OC
should be treated within a climate policy context
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LUCF Considerations
• We are conducting and supporting analyses on carbon sequestration and GHG mitigation options in forestry and agriculture – domestically and internationally
• Key NEW question: How will climate change and air pollution over time affect trees and crops, and hence, potential greenhouse gas mitigation?
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IAM Challenges
• Continue refining science of climate change/air quality linkages and incorporate into models
• Include plausible air quality policies as they affect long-term GHG emissions scenarios
• Conduct a new comprehensive, multi-gas policy assessment to improve the understanding of the effects of including non-CO2 GHGs (NCGGs) and sinks (terrestrial sequestration) into short- and long-term mitigation policies.
• Identify synergies/trade-offs with GHG and air pollutant mitigation strategies
How can ICAP results feed into Integrated Assessment Modeling?
13
Integrated Environmental Strategies
• Established in 1998 as a capacity-enhancing co-benefits program.
• Partners local teams in developing countries with experts and tools from U.S. EPA, other IES projects, and other organizations (e.g., U.S. AID, NREL).
• Flexible, to address local air quality and public health needs of stakeholders in cities.
• Identifies and analyzes integrated (i.e., air-quality improvement and greenhouse-gas mitigation) strategies and co-benefits.
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IES Goals• Identify strategies that improve local air quality
while meeting public health, economic development, and GHG mitigation objectives.
• Provide stakeholders with quantitative estimates of local and global co-benefits of policies and technologies.
• Build analytical, institutional, and human capacity for co-benefits analysis
• Transfer tools and methodologies for co-benefits analysis.
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IES: Key questions
• What are the health impacts of changes in policies that impact air quality? What is the economic value of these health impacts?
• What are the GHG emissions reductions associated with these measures?
• How can an integrated approach benefit decision-making?
• How can co-benefits be quantified to be meaningful?
• How can integrated analysis benefit existing decision-making processes?
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Contacts• Black Carbon
– Ben DeAngelo, [email protected], 202-343-9107
• Integrated Assessment Modeling– Steve Rose, [email protected], 202-343-9553– Francisco Delachesnaye, Acting Branch Chief,
[email protected], 202-343-9010
• Methane Voluntary Programs– Paul Gunning, [email protected], 202-343-9736
• Carbon Sequestration– Ken Andrasko, [email protected], 202-343-9281
and Ben DeAngelo
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Contacts
• Integrated Environmental Strategies– Kong Chiu, [email protected], 202-343-9309
• Climate Change Science Issues– Jason Samenow, [email protected],
202-343-9327
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Resources
• Methane voluntary programswww.epa.gov/methane
• GHG emissions inventorywww.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/emissions
Carbon sequestration website
www.epa.gov/sequestration