1 camels camels project overview motivation for camels deliverables products structure peter cox,...
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1
CAMELS
CAMELS PROJECT OVERVIEW
Motivation for CAMELS
Deliverables
Products
Structure
Peter Cox, Hadley Centre, Met Office
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CAMELS
Kyoto Sinks
Article 3.3 : “The net change in greenhouse gas emissions by sources
and removals by sinks resulting from direct human-induced land-use
change and forestry activities, …… measured as verifiable changes …
shall be used to meet the commitments.”
Article 3.4 : “……each Party …… shall provide …… data to establish
its level of carbon stocks in 1990 and to enable an estimate to be
made of its changes in carbon stocks in subsequent years……”
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CAMELS
CAMELS and the Kyoto Protocol
Annex I countries are permitted to partially offset their emissions of CO2 by carbon accumulated due to forest
management and “additional human-induced” change in land-use and land management.
The related sources and sinks of CO2 must be reported in a
“transparent and verifiable manner”.
CAMELS will provide key support to EU countries in meeting their obligations under Kyoto.
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CAMELS
CAMELS Motivating Science Questions
Where are the current carbon sources and sinks located on the land and how do European sinks compare with other large continental areas?
Why do these sources and sinks exist, i.e. what are the relative contributions of CO2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, climate variability, land management and land-use change?
How could we make optimal use of existing data sources and the latest models to produce operational estimates of the European land carbon sink?
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CAMELS
Inverse Modelling
Method : Use atmospheric transport model to infer CO2 sources and
sinks most consistent with atmospheric CO2 measurements.
Advantages : a) Large-scale; b) Data based (transparency).
Disadvantages : a) Uncertain (network too sparse); b) not
constrained by ecophysiological understanding; c) net CO2 flux only
(cannot isolate land management).
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CAMELS
Inverse Modelling - Uncertainties
Fan et al. (1998): 1.7 GtC/yr sink in North America.
Bousquet et al. (1999): 0.5 +/- 0.6 GtC/yr in North America, 1.3
GtC/yr in Siberia.
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CAMELS
Forward Modelling
Method : Build “bottom-up” process-based models of land and ocean
carbon uptake.
Advantages : a) Include physical and ecophysiological constraints; b)
Can isolate land-management effects; c) can be used predictively (not
just monitoring).
Disadvantages : a) Uncertain (gaps in process understanding); b) Do
not make optimal use of large-scale observational constraints.
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CAMELS
Forward Modelling - Land Uncertainties
Smoothed Mean and Standard Deviation of DGVM Predictions(Cramer et al., 2001)
Diagram from RoyalSoc. Sinks Report
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CAMELS
CAMELS Products
Best estimates and uncertainty bounds for the contemporary and historical land carbon sinks in Europe and elsewhere, isolating the effects of direct land-management.
A prototype carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS) exploiting existing data sources (e.g. flux measurements, carbon inventory data, satellite products) and the latest terrestrial ecosystem models (TEMs), in order to produce operational estimates of “Kyoto sinks“.
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CAMELS
CAMELS Workpackages
WP1. Data Harmonisation and Consolidation (ALTERRA)
WP2. Model Validation and Uncertainty Analysis (MPI-BGC)
WP3. Modelling of the 20th Century Land Carbon Balance (LSCE)
WP4. Development of a System for Carbon Data Assimilation (MetO)
WP5. Dissemination of Information (UNITUS)
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CAMELS
CAMELS Flow Diagram
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CAMELS
CAMELS Facts and figures
CAMELS is a key part of the CarboEurope cluster.
CAMELS involves a coordinator (Met Office), 8 contractors (CEA, MPI-BGC, ALTERRA, UNITUS, EFI, NERC, CNRS, JRC) and 1 subcontractor (FastOpt).
CAMELS will receive 1.4MEuro over 3 years from 1st Nov 2002-31st Oct 2005.
CAMELS will provide improved estimates or historical and contemporary land carbon sinks.
CAMELS will combine the best data sources and forward carbon models to produce a carbon cycle data assimilation system.
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CAMELS
CAMELS Deliverables 1
D1.1Biome-specific datasets to drive and validate TEMs.
Month 6 Da PU
D1.2Atmospheric CO2 dataset for use in
nowcasting system.
Month 9 Da PU
D1.3Land-use and nitrogen deposition historical datasets (1900-2000).
Month 12
Da PU
D1.4Datasets of recent change in European land carbon.
Month 15
Da PU
D1.5Dataset of fAPAR for Europe Month
18Da PU
D2.1Report on improved process representation in TEMs.
Month 18
Re PU
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CAMELS
CAMELS Deliverables 2
D2.2Biome-dependent ecosystem parameters plus uncertainty bounds for each TEM .
Month 24
Da PU
D3.1
Contemporary carbon stores and TEM parameters constrained by 20th century simulations.
Month 24
Si PU
D3.2
Simulations of the historical land carbon balance, with and without land-use change.
Month 30
Si PU
D3.3
Diagnosis of thecauses of the European land carbon sink in the context of the Kyoto Proto.
Month 36
Si PU
D4.1Report on design of nowcasting carbon data assimilation system.
Month 30
Re PU
D4.2Estimates of the contemporary European land carbon sink, and its causes.
Month 36
Si PU
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CAMELS
CAMELS Deliverables 3
D5.1Project website with a layered structure. Month 3 Pr PU
D5.2Online and ad hoc consultation to European Commission.
As Required
Expert Advice
CO
D5.3
Report on the estimation of the contemporary land carbon sink and its causes.
Month 36
Re Pu