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By: Dr. Nader SaidBy: Dr. Nader Said

Development Studies Programme

Polling Palestinian Voters

(Legislative Elections 2006)

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• Legislative Elections in West Bank and Gaza-January 2006; 132 seats.

• Mixed elections system: - Proportional:11 national lists competing to win 66 seats (with 314 candidates). - Simple majority voting for individual candidates – 16 different size – districts with 412 candidates competing to win 66 seats.

• 2% of the vote minimum threshold to enter the competition for seats.

About the Elections

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Structure of the Exit Poll

• 232 Polling Stations (9%).

• Special Security Forces survey.

• More than 600 Research Interviewers.

• 100 Data Processing & Programming Personnel.

• Total workforce of over than 900 personnel including interviewing, data processing, and supervisory staff.

• 8000 completed questionnaires in districts, 2800 for national lists, and 956 for background Questionnaires.

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58%

42%

20%

42%38%

42%

58%54%

46%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

WestBank

Gaza Camp Village City Refugee Non-refugee

Male Female

Profile of Palestinian Voters

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44% 46%

10%

47%50%

4%

7% 9%

16%

38%

12%

19%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

18-29 30-50 More than50

Religious SomewhatReligious

NotReligious

Illiterate Preparatory Elementary Secondary Diploma B.A. or more

Profile of Palestinian Voters … Continue

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Perceived Fairness of Elections Process

70.9%

66%

82%

25.7%

30%

16%

3.5%

4%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Total

West Bank

Gaza

Fair Somewhat Fair Unfair

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Evaluation of CEC Performance

71.5%

25.0%

3.5%

Satisfied Somewhat satisfied Not satisfied

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Why did you participate?

26%

22%

16%

14%

12%

6%

2.4%

1%

0.4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

My duty as a citizen

It's a democratic right and practice

Improving internal condition--chaos/violence

To improve the economic situation

To improve PNA institutions

Convinced by candidate

Hope for change in political parties

Confirm to the wishes of a political Party

Conform to the wishes of my family

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81%

80%

78%

77%

68%

62%

43%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Reform PNA Institutions

Improve internal security

Improve economicconditions

Promote Democracy

Resumption ofNegotiations with Israel

Ease of Closure

Israeli Withdrawal

Expectations from elections.

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Distribution of % vote and seats

44

75

42 45

4.2 3 2.7 2 2.4 2 2.4 20

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Hamas Fateh PFLP Badil IndependentPalestine

Third Way Others

%

Seats

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Votes Compared with seats

Hamas Others

44%

56%

Popular Vote

35%

65%

Districts Vote

At District Level

Proportional System

56%

56%

% of Seats

37

29

% of Seats

32%

68%

45

21

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The Popularity of Hamas (Change and Reform List)

44%

56% 67%

33%

22%

78%

Hamas Others

Valid Vote for National lists Registered Voters

Voting Age Population

21

13

14%

8%

78%

Voted for Hamas / commited Voted for Hamas / Not Supportive Others

The Popularity of Hamas

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Why a vote for Hamas (and not Fateh)

19%

12%

43%

Ending Corruption

Religious Reasons

Political agenda

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Voting for Hamas and Fateh

1. Age Group

47%43%

47%

39%

45%40%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

18-29 30-50 More than 50

Hamas

Fateh

16

Voting for Hamas and Fateh

2. Gender

39%

49%

56%

33%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Men Women

HamasFateh

17

Voting for Hamas and Fateh

3. Education

44% 43%

48%43%

46%

38%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

> 9 years 9 12 12

HamasFateh

+-

18

Voting for Hamas and Fateh

4. Work / Sector

52%

32%

23%

68%

52%

30%

60%

25%

56%

33%

56%

30%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Private Public NGOs Students Housewives Don't work

Hamas

Fateh

19

Voting for Hamas and Fateh

5. Religiosity

54%

38%41%

45%

20%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Religious Somewhat Religious Not Religious

Hamas

Fateh

20

Voting for Hamas and Fateh

6. Type of Residence

53%

38%42% 41%

44%50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

City Village / town Refugee Camp

Hamas

Fateh

21

Support for President Abbas’s Program by Political support

79%

30%

50%

10%

41%

50%

13%

29%

00%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Supportive Not Supportive Don't know / Undecided

FatehHamasPFLP

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• 74 % didn’t expect a Hamas overwhelming majority in PLC.

• 67% expect that a Hamas led government commit to political negotiations with Israel.

Positions Regarding the Results of the Elections