1 buckingham research group’s 2007 chemicals and advanced materials – majors conference june 28,...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Buckingham Research Buckingham Research Group’sGroup’s
2007 Chemicals and Advanced 2007 Chemicals and Advanced Materials – Majors ConferenceMaterials – Majors Conference
June 28, 2007June 28, 2007
2
Olin AttendeesOlin Attendees
John E. Fischer Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
John L. McIntosh Vice President & President Chlor-Alkali Products
Larry P. Kromidas Assistant Treasurer & Director, Investor Relations
3
Company OverviewCompany Overview
All financial data are for the year ending 2006 and quarter ending March 2007 and are presented in millions of U.S. dollars except for earnings per share. Shown above is income before taxes from continuing operations. Additional information is available on Olin’s website www.olin.com in the Investors section.
WinchesterChlor Alkali
North American Producer of Chlorine and Caustic Soda
FY 2006 Q1 2007
Revenue: $666 $155
Income: $256 $ 43
North American Producer of Ammunition
FY 2006 Q1 2007
Revenue: $374 $100
Income: $ 16 $ 8
Metals
Specialty Copper-Based Products & Related Engineered Materials
FY 2006 Q1 2007
Revenue: $2,112 $510
Income: $58 $ 10
Revenue: $3,152 $766 Pretax Operating Inc.: $ 201 $ 35EPS (Diluted): $ 2.06 $ .31
Olin FY 2006 Q1 2007
4
Olin VisionOlin VisionTo be a leading Basic Materials company delivering attractive, sustainable shareholder returns
• Being low cost, high quality producer, and #1 or #2 supplier in the markets we serve
• Providing excellent customer service and advanced technological solutions
• Following our customers globally where we can do it profitably
• Generating returns above the cost of capital over the economic cycle
5
Olin Corporate StrategyOlin Corporate Strategy
1. Build on current leadership positions in Chlor-Alkali, Metals and Ammunition
• Improve operating efficiency and profitability• Integrate downstream selectively• Expand globally where profitable
2. Allocate resources to the businesses that can create the most value
3. Manage financial resources to satisfy legacy liabilities
TRS in Top Third S&P Mid Cap 400ROCE Over Cost of Capital Over the Cycle
Olin Corporation Goal: Superior Shareholder Returns
6
2006 Highlights2006 Highlights• Highest earnings per share level since 1996• Second consecutive record year for Chlor Alkali
Products division• Capital expenditures for bleach expansion projects and
rail transportation to improve margins and customer service
• Unprecedented copper, zinc and lead prices increase working capital requirements and production expense
• Customer surcharges and price increases implemented by Metals and Winchester divisions
• Metals closure of Waterbury Rolling Mills completed in June, New Haven Copper shutdown completed March 2007, annual savings expected to be $11-$12 million.
7
2006 Highlights 2006 Highlights ContinuedContinued
• Metals restructuring charges were more than offset by LIFO inventory gains
• Winchester revenues increased 8% over 2005 primarily due to increased selling prices and commercial sales
• Tax dispute settled favorably with IRS resulting in a reduction in income tax expense of $22 million
• Strong investment returns, a higher discount rate and an $80 million voluntary contribution reduced pension under-funding $148 million from year end 2005 levels
• Completed $125 million debt exchange extending maturity 5 years and lowering interest rate
• Year end cash and short-term investments were $276 million
8
First Quarter 2007 First Quarter 2007 ResultsResults
• Chlor Alkali operating rates lower than Q4 ’06 due to reduced demand in January and unplanned outages in February; outages fully resolved by mid-March
• Metals volumes off 13% with softer demand from automotive, electronics and building products customers; inventory reduction program yields $5.3 million LIFO liquidation gain
• Winchester earnings are best first quarter ever reflecting improved volumes and pricing
• Copper, zinc and lead prices continue to escalate over 2006 levels
9
Second Quarter 2007 Second Quarter 2007 OutlookOutlook
• Chlor Alkali expects improved ECU netbacks over Q1 from caustic price increases announced in Q4 ’06 and operating rates in mid-90% range
• April 1 chlorine and caustic price increases announced and are pending implementation
• May price announcement of $50/ton for all grades of caustic soda by Olin and other major producers
• May 1 sale of sodium hydrosulphite production to Chemtrade Logistics for approximately $7 million
10
Second Quarter 2007 Second Quarter 2007 OutlookOutlook(continued)(continued)
• Metals inventory reduction program is projected to add $5 million to earnings in the second quarter
• Inventory reduction program objective is to reduce Metals inventory levels by 20% over 2007 and 2008
• Winchester expects seasonally weaker earnings as compared to record first quarter
• $100 million pension contribution made in May and investment policy changes designed to insulate plan from discount rate changes
• On our April 27th earnings call, we projected EPS to be in the $0.35 range
11
Pioneer AcquisitionPioneer Acquisition• Synergistic, bolt-on acquisition that enhances our chlor-
alkali franchise– #3 in chlor-alkali, up from #4
– Diversifies geographic coverage
– Improves overall cost position
– #1 in industrial bleach
• Further low-cost expansion opportunities in the largest chlorine consuming region of North America
• Significant near-term cost synergies of $35 million• Immediately accretive to EPS and remains highly
accretive throughout the cycle, and the balance sheet remains strong
12
Pioneer AcquisitionPioneer Acquisition(Continued)(Continued)
• Purchase price of $35 per share, or about $420 million• Pioneer cash used to repay their debt, Olin will finance
transaction through use of cash and debt• Synergies will come from logistics, purchasing,
operations and SG&A expenses• Expect to realize $20 million in synergies in the first 12
months following acquisition and $35 million annually thereafter
• Approvals required– Pioneer shareholder approval
– Regulatory approval
13
• Be the preferred merchant supplier to non-integrated chlor alkali customers
• Continue to drive cost improvements through manufacturing and logistic optimization
• Continue our partnership philosophy with our customers
• Opportunities to increase the value of the business at modest capital investment
• Be a strong cash generator and value enhancer to Olin Corporation
Olin’s Chlor Alkali Olin’s Chlor Alkali StrategyStrategy
14
Olin Has Leading Olin Has Leading Capacity Share in Capacity Share in
Eastern U.S.Eastern U.S.
Source: CMAI Chlor Alkali Report
• 4th Overall in U.S. Capacity
• Largest Producer East of
the Mississippi River
• Olin Has 1.23 Million tons
ECU Capacity Per Year (1)
• A $10 / ECU Change
Equates to an $11 Million
Change in Pretax Income at
Full Capacity, or $.10 per
share @ 35% tax rate
Dow32%
Occidental22%
PPG12%
Olin8%
Formosa6%
Pioneer5%
Georgia Gulf3%
Mexichem2%
Bayer2%
Other8%
(1) Includes 50% of SunBelt
15
4,780
3,484
1,9921,856
1,218
880 774
471 430 371
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Dow Occidental PF Olin andPioneer
PPG Olin Formosa Pioneer Georgia Gulf Bayer AG Mexichem
Ch
lori
ne
Cap
acit
y (-
000-
sh
ort
to
ns)
Diaphragm Membrane Mercury Other
Pioneer Acquisition Moves Pioneer Acquisition Moves Olin from #4 to #3 Olin from #4 to #3 Producer and . . .Producer and . . .
16
Pioneer Chlorine Plants
Pioneer Bleach Plants
Olin Corporation
Augusta, GAMcIntosh, AL
Dalhousie, NB
St. Gabriel, LA
Becancour, Quebec
Niagara Falls, NY
-000- of Short TonsChlorine Capacity
McIntosh, AL 401Becancour, Quebec (1) 340Niagara Falls, NY 281Charleston, TN 270St. Gabriel, LA (2) 246McIntosh, AL (50% Sunbelt) 146Henderson, NV 152Augusta, GA 120Dalhousie, NB 36
(1) Pioneer’s Becancour plant has 275,000 short tons Diaphragm and 65,000 short tons Membrane capacity.
(2) Pioneer’s St. Gabriel plant includes the announced 49,000 short tons capacity expansion and conversion to membrane cell.
Source: CMAI.
Santa Fe Springs, CA
Tracy, CA
Tacoma, WA
Total 1,992Charleston, TN
Henderson, NV
. . . Enhances Olin’s . . . Enhances Olin’s Operational and Operational and
Geographical PlatformGeographical Platform
17
Chlor Chlor AlkaliAlkali ProductsProducts • 2005 & 2006 record years, peak ECU netback in Q1‘06:
Q2’05 $505 Q4’05 $545 Q2’06 $560 Q4’06 $520
Q3’05 $515 Q1’06 $590 Q3’06 $540 Q1’07 $500
• Chlorine and Caustic price increases announced in Q1’07• Higher transportation and energy costs • $1 change in Natural Gas MMBTU increases costs of
Natural Gas-based producers by $25 to $35/ECU• Natural Gas increases plus capacity reductions have
created a more favorable long-term price outlook• North American demand growth rate of 0.8% annually• Net North American capacity has decreased since 2000
18
North America Chlor Alkali North America Chlor Alkali ForecastForecastNorth America Chlor Alkali CapacityNorth America Chlor Alkali Capacity
Reductions Reductions 2000 Through 20062000 Through 2006North America Chlor Alkali CapacityNorth America Chlor Alkali Capacity
Expansions Expansions 2000 Through 20062000 Through 2006
Company LocationShort Tons as
Chlorine
Dow Ft. Saskatchewan 610,000
Dow Plaquemine, LA 375,000
Oxy Vinyls LP Deer Park, TX 395,000
Formosa Plastics Baton Rouge, LA 201,000
Pioneer Tacoma, WA 214,000
Atofina Portland, OR 187,000
La Roche Gramercy, LA 198,000
OXY Delaware City, DE 145,000
Holtra Chem Orrington, ME 80,000
Holtra Chem Acme, NC 66,000
Cedar Chem
Georgia Pacific
Vicksburg, MS
(3 locations)
40,000
24,000
Oremet Albany, OR 5,000
Total Reductions 2,540,000
Source: Olin Data
Reductions 2,540,000Additions (462,000)Total Reductions 2,078,000
Company Location Short Tons as
Chlorine
Vulcan C-A Geismer, LA 210,000
Equachlor Longview, WA 80,000
Westlake Calvert City, KY 80,000
SunBelt McIntosh, AL 70,000
Oxy Various Sites 22,000
Total Additions 462,000
Company LocationShort Tons as Chlorine Timing
Shintech Plaquemine, LA 330,000 2007/2008
Bayer Baytown, TX 220,000 Delayed
Oxy Muscle Shoals, AL (154,000) 2008
Pioneer St. Gabriel, LA 49,000 2009
Total Announced Changes 445,000*
Annual demand growth at 0.8%/Yr = 110,000 Short Tons/Yr
* Includes delayed capacity
Announced Future Capacity ChangesAnnounced Future Capacity Changes
19
Olin’s Chlor Alkali Olin’s Chlor Alkali ContractsContracts
• Olin contracts nearly 100% of its chlorine and caustic sales
• On about two-thirds of the chlorine and caustic volumes, prices change quarterly, with a combination of formula-based and negotiated pricing, and the balance is renegotiated annually or semi-annually
• Many contracts have a one quarter lag in them, which delays price increases in a tightening market and delays decreases in a softening market
• Competitive forces dictate contract duration and terms
20
MetalsMetals • Olin is the leading manufacturer of copper alloy
strip, and a leading manufacturer of brass rod in the U.S.
• Olin possesses leading technology position– 37 U.S. patents for High Performance Alloys
– 40 U.S. patents on various proprietary processing and technical capabilities
• Olin is the leading copper alloy strip distributor in the U.S. with 8 service/distribution centers located in the U.S. and Puerto Rico; 2 additional centers are located in Mexico and China
21
MetalsMetals• The average price of copper increased from $2.57/lb in
January to $2.92/lb in March and is currently about $3.60/lb resulting in increased metal melting loss costs and higher working capital requirements
• Improved product pricing partially offsets higher costs• Softer automotive and building products demand masks
benefits from plant closures and other actions• Inventory reduction program adds $5.3 million to
income in Q1 and is expected to add an additional $5 million to Q2 results
• Target of 20% inventory reduction over 2007-8 period
22
Metals OutlookMetals Outlook• US dollar coin program should add volume for the
strip business, ammunition sales remain strong• We expect automotive to pick-up and we are
encouraged by forecasts of a housing pick up in Q2, both of which will add positive results to our cost and inventory reduction accomplishments
• Expansion of our China distribution facility by adding stamping capabilities
• We believe that we are the low cost metals producer in the U. S. putting us in a preferred position with regards to profitability
23
Winchester ProductsWinchester ProductsProductsProducts End UsesEnd Uses
Winchester ® sporting ammunition -- shot-shells, small caliber centerfire & rimfire ammunition
Hunters & recreational shooters, law enforcement agencies
Small caliber military ammunition
Infantry and mounted weapons
Industrial products -- 8 gauge loads & powder-actuated tool loads
Maintenance applications in power & concrete industries, powder-actuated tools in construction industry
24
WinchesterWinchester• Profits of $8.1 million reflect best first quarter ever• Nine price increases announced since the beginning of
2004 to offset higher metal prices• Continued increase in metal prices, especially lead,
poses a challenge for 2007 • Winchester recently received 2 new military orders:
1. $18 million order from US Army for shotgun shells, and
2. $24 million order under General Dynamics second source small caliber ammunition program
25
Financial HighlightsFinancial Highlights• Q1 cash and short-term investments of $283 million
exceed outstanding debt by nearly $30 million • $15 million sale/leaseback, lower tax payments and
lower level of working capital growth increased cash balances in Q1 which is normally a cash use period
• $80 million voluntary pension contribution in Q3 2006 coupled with higher discount rate and healthy returns on plan assets cut funded status shortfall by $148 million to $234 million
• $100 million voluntary contribution this quarter and investment policy change will likely lead to fully funded plan by 2011 without further contributions
26
Financial HighlightsFinancial Highlights(continued)(continued)
• 2007 pension expense expected to decrease by approximately $21 million as compared to 2006
• Favorably settled all IRS audits through 2002 resulting in a $22 million reduction in tax expense in 2006
• 2007 effective tax rate expected to be in the 34% to 35% range
• Capital spending levels, net of January sale leaseback transaction, are expected to be $75 to $80 million in 2007 with 65% allocated to Chlor-Alkali to complete bleach expansion and ongoing maintenance projects
27
Investment RationaleInvestment Rationale• Continued strong performance based on
– Relatively high ECU prices, Pioneer acquisition likely– Cost reductions, better pricing, inventory liquidation
gains and restructuring in Metals– Cost reductions, price increases and increased U.S.
Military revenue in Winchester• Strong financial discipline• Commitment to investment grade credit rating• At recent price levels, common dividend yield is
approximately 4.00% • 322nd consecutive quarterly common dividend (80+
years) paid in June
28
Forward-Looking Forward-Looking StatementsStatements
This presentation contains estimates of future performance, which are forward-looking statements and actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that could cause actual results to differ are described in the business and outlook sections of Olin’s Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006 and in Olin’s First Quarter 2007 Earnings Release. These reports are filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.