1 allied irish banks, p.l.c. introduction to aib mortgage bank (aibmb) covered bond programme aaa /...
TRANSCRIPT
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Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c.
Introduction to
AIB Mortgage Bank (AIBMB)
Covered Bond Programme
Aaa / AAA / AAA
Benchmark Transaction
December 2006
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Contents
Overview of Allied Irish Banks p.l.c.
The Irish Economy and the Irish Housing Market
AIB’s Funding Profile
AIB Mortgage Bank’s ACS Issuance
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Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c.
Ireland’s largest publicly quoted company
Retail & commercial bank with strong franchises in all geographies
# 1 bank in Ireland with leading market shares in core banking products
By market capitalisation €18.6bn (November 2006) >17% of Irish Stock Market Index
Y/E 2005 - total assets € 133bn, PBT € 1.7bn
1H 2006 - total assets € 144bn, PBT €1.2bn
Senior debt ratings Moody’s ‘Aa3’ (stable outlook)S&P ‘A+’ (stable outlook)Fitch IBCA ‘AA-’ (stable outlook)
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Geographic profile- June ‘06
PBT 10%RWA’s 4%5yr Av.GDP 3.0%
Shareholding of 24% in M&T BankContribution to PBT 7%5yr Av.GDP 2.6%
PBT 15%RWA’s 18%5yr Av.GDP 2.3%
PBT 37%RWA’s 41%5yr Av.GDP 5.1%
AIB Bank, ROI Division UK Division
M&T Bank Poland Division
Capital Markets Division
PBT 27%RWA’s 37%
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Divisional Performance
2005
2006 (H1)
AIB Bank Republic of Ireland €779m 24% €453m 19%
AIB GB & NI €322m 18% €184m 18%
Capital Markets €403m27% €300m 45%
Poland €132m13% €114m 62%
M&T * €148m 16% €80m 11% * after tax figure
Profit before tax
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Strong asset quality and robust capital
2004 2005 2006(H1)
1.3% Impaired loans (ILs) 1.0% 0.8%
5.8% Criticised loans / total loans 5.1% 5.1%
0.7% Gross new ILs 0.4% 0.4%
73% Total provisions / ILs 78 % 81%
20bpts Bad debt charge 15 bps 3bpts
Tier 1 7.2% 8.0%
Total Capital 10.7% 11.1%
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Key performance features
Double digit growth in all principal franchises
Cost / income ratio 2.7% and down in all divisions
Investing in our people to underpin rates of retention & recruitment
Operating profit 24%
Strong asset quality, impaired loans to 0.8% and down / stable in all divisions
Intense focus on single enterprise operations
Robust capital and funding positions
Confident we will continue to achieve balanced and well managed growth
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The Irish Economy and Housing Market
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Republic of Ireland Economic Trends
1990 1995 2000 2005 (e) 2006 (f)
Population (‘000) 3,506 3,601 3,789 4,131 4,235
Employment (‘000) 1,160 1,282 1,671 1,929 1,997
Unemployment (‘000) 172 177 75 86 89
Unemployment (% ) 12.9 12.2 4.3 4.2 4.2
Inflation (% )* 3.4 2.5 5.6 2.5 4.0
Exchequer + / (-) as (% GNP) (2.0) (1.7) 3.6 (0.4) 0
GNP per capita (€) 8,712 12,936 23,460 32,935 34,165
GNP growth rate 7.1% 8.9% 9.2% 5.4% 6.3%
Gen. Govt. Debt/ GDP (% ) 94.0 81.0 37.8 27.4 25.0
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
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The Irish Labour Market Has Been Transformed
Total Employment ’00S (LHS)
Unemployment Rate % (RHS)
The Irish Labour Market Has been Transformed(‘000s) (%)
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Population Growth
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
0-14 15-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+
1996 Census 2002 Census 2010 CSO Projections
Source: DOE and ESRI
Population Age Profile Estimates (m)
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Robust Public Finances
Government budget
Surpluses average 1.5% of GDP since 1997
Budget close to balance in coming years
Large current budget surpluses
Significant capital expenditure/borrowing
Gen Gov Debt/GDP ratio
27.4% at end 2005(e) and declining
Down from 90% of GDP during the 1990’s
Compares very favourably to eurozone average Debt/GDB of 71%
Relatively Low Tax Economy
Corporation Tax @ 12 ½% ; well below eurozone average
Personal Tax & Insurance Rates are LOW, no property taxes
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Many Factors Underpin Strong Housing Demand
Continued strong inward migration
Favourable demographic trends
Untapped demand – Rising Headship rates
Demand for second homes
Strong growth in economy and employment
Maturity of Government savings scheme (SSIA’s) in 2006/7
Home ownership is seen as an attractive tax efficient savings scheme, there are no personal or municipal taxes on residential property
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Functional Demand for House Completions (Year to April)
Avg
1996 –
2002
Avg
2002 -
2006
2006
(e)
2007
(f)
2008
(f)
Indigenous Population
Growth 12,550 16,500 16,300 16,300 16,300
Migration Flows 13,650 17,800 25,800 27,700 24,000
Headship 1,250 17,000 24,000 26,000 21,500
Second Homes 10,800 14,000 11,500 10,800 8,600
Replacement of Obsolete
Units 6,500 8,300 8,800 9,200 9,600
Completions 44,750 73,600 86,400 90,000 80,000
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Summary: A Sound Economy
Public finances to remain close to balance
Very low national debt. Declining debt/GDP ratio
Low tax economy attracting FDI and workers
Virtual full employment despite high immigration
Favourable demographics supporting growth
Inflation back close to Eurozone average
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Funding Profile
Allied Irish Banks, p.l.c
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AIB’s Publicly Traded Securities
Short Term Instruments
Certificates of Deposit , €, STG, US$, Can$, A$
US $ 10 bn Commercial Paper Programme
US $ 10 bn Yankee CD Programme
€ 5b French Certificate of Deposit Programme*
Can $3b Maple Commercial Paper Programme*
Long Term Instruments
AIB plc ( Aa3 / A+ / AA-)
€ 30 b EMTN programme
AIB Mortgage Bank (Aaa / AAA / AAA)
€ 15b covered bond EMTN programme
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Source of funds
0
20
40
60
80
100
2005 H1 2006
CapitalSenior Debt
ACSCDs & CPsDeposits by banks
Customer a/cs
52%
24%
10%
10%
49%
25%
10%
7%
%
4% 6%3%
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0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2015 2020 2025 Perp.
ACS Snr-Priv.Place. Snr-Benchmk Tier (ii) Tier (i)
Euro 82%
STG 14%
US$ 4%
Step-up issues – adjustedto earliest step-up date
Moody’s S&P Fitch
Aaa AAA AAA
Aa3 A+ AA-
Aa3 A+ AA-
A1 A(Lwr)/A-(Uppr) A+
A2 A- A+
€ (m)
Asset Covered Securities 3,500
Senior Debt - Private Placements 2,800
Senior Debt - Benchmark Issues 6,750
Tier (ii) 3,500
Tier (i) 2,700
Total 19,250
Debt Distribution October 2006€ (m)
Debt funding – well distributed and diversified
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AIB Mortgage Bank’s ACS Issuance
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Overview of AIB Mortgage Bank
Registered as a Designated Mortgage Credit Institution
License granted by Regulator – Feb 2006
Non-guaranteed, Public Unlimited Company - wholly owned by AIB plc
Shareholders investment exceeds €650m
9 Directors, including 4 non-executive directors
Major activities outsourced to AIB (ROI) Division, subject to terms of the
Service Level Agreement
€13.6bn residential mortgage loans transferred to AIB MB from AIB (ROI)
Prudent Discount Factor - 15 %
Pool Overcollateralisation set @ > 5%
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ACS Act (2001) - Irish Legislation
Restricts asset classes – currently Public Sector and Residential Mortgages
Specialist bank principle - AIB Mortgage Bank
Conservative valuation methodology – haircut applied to increases in value (Prudent Market Value)
Prudent Market Value of Pool must be > ACS principal outstanding
Interest Receivable from pool must be > interest payable on the ACS for any 12 month period
Weighted Average maturity of the pool must be > ACS maturity
B/S interest rate sensitivity subject to limits
In the event of default - NTMA (Govt. Agency) appointed - Pool exempt from bankruptcy proceedings - Bond holders prioritised
Mandatory disclosure requirements
Covered Asset Monitor – independent external monitoring
Legislative changes planned for 2007
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ACS - Mortgage Origination
Irish mortgage market drawn balances exceed €100bn,
AIB has a market share of 16%+
AIB has a presence in all major towns and cities, by a
network of 188 branches and 87 sub-offices
35% - 40% of the Banked Public have a primary account
relationship with AIB
90%+ of our branched sourced mortgages come from
existing bank account holders
AIBMB currently does not book mortgages introduced
through intermediaries
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ACS - Credit Policy
Max Loan amount determined by DSR ( Debt Service Ratio ) = the
Proportion of Net Income that is prudent to allow for purposes of
Mortgage Repayments
DSR is stress tested to allow for increases in interest rates of 2%
Max LTV = 92%
Lenders have no sanctioning Targets/Quotas
Loan to be repaid by scheduled retirement date
Exceptions are approved by Senior Mortgage Lenders subject to the
customers ability to repay
Regular reporting to Regulator
Arrears as % of total advances at end June - 0.4%
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House mortgages - Republic of Ireland
Primary focus on debt service ratio (repayment capacity)
New Business
Consistent LTVs (% no’s of drawdowns) Dec 02 Dec 04 Jun 06
< 75% 66 67 65
> 75% < 90% 26 24 21
> 90% 8 9 14
Total 100 100 100
Strong arrears profile Dec 02 Dec 04 Jun 06
% total mortgage advances 0.8% 0.5% 0.4%
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ACS - AIBMB Collateral Pool at November 2006
Minimum Contractual Overcollateralisation 5%
Actual Overcollateralisation >10%
Pool Size by PMV €7.8 bn
Aggregate Prudent LTV 38%
WA indexed LTV 54%
Dublin/Non-Dublin 31/69
No. of Properties 50,400
BTL/Owner Occupier 23/77
Fixed Rate 16%
Interest only 22%*
Prudent Market Discount 15%
WA Seasoning c. 25 mths
Currently no commercial mortgages
Arrears > 3 months removed from pool
Minimal interest rate risk
* Life of interest normally <5 years then reverts to annuity
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ACS – AIB’s Issuance Strategy
€15 billion EMTN Programme established (Aaa/AAA/AAA)
Very high quality Covered Asset Pool
Successful Inaugural Dual Tranche Issue - €2.5bn 3 year, €1.0bn 7 year - strong secondary market performance
One issuing document to be updated annually
Ongoing commitment to investor relations - Regular marketing initiatives- Establishment of web-access- Rating Reports posted on website
Regular benchmark issuance across the curve
Participation in Euro Private Placements
To be recognised by investors as a consistent and responsible Issuer
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Contacts
AIB Web Site : www.aib.ie / investor relations
Provides a comprehensive library of AIB & AIB Mortgage Bank programmes, listing particulars and presentations
AIB Economic Research :www.aibeconomicresearch.com/research.asp?2
Provides comprehensive analysis of the Irish economy and housing market
AIB Group Investor Relations www.aibgroup.com/investorrelations
Exec., GM Group Finance : Alan Kelly T: + 353-1-641-4191
Manager : Maurice Tracey
AIB Global Treasury [email protected]
Chief Dealer, Debt Issuance : Sean Cremen T: + 353-1-641-7803