1. 2 יום עיון רפתות גליל מערבי 19.02.08 outlook for soybean meal and corn
Post on 15-Jan-2016
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19.02.08יום עיון רפתות גליל מערבי •
OUTLOOK FOR SOYBEAN MEAL AND CORN
3
U.S. OILSEED PRODUCTION
52.4 54.159.6
50.9
68.4
59.264.8
73.2 74.6 72.2 75.178.7
75.066.8
85.0 83.4 86.8
70.2
80.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09
Pro
du
cti
on
(m
il t
on
ne
s)
-SOYBEANS- -COTTONSEED- -SUNSEED- -PEANUTS- -RAPESEED-
76.6
64.3
68.5
84.983.1
69.0
79.7
59.5
89.8
84.482.3
74.8
83.9
60.5
96.695.5
95.9
79.7
88.9
Soybean led recovery expected next year, but will remain well below levels of two years ago
4
FOREIGN OILSEED PRODUCTION
66.9 69.2 65.2 67.285.8 85.5 87.4
100.7 106.2121.8 119.8
130.7 137.1148.4 148.5
24.0 26.1 29.7 27.9
28.8 27.8 27.1
27.729.7
27.1 29.7
38.336.7
36.7 40.0
26.730.8 34.5 31.6
33.4 35.942.3
36.435.1
32.2
45.548.0
46.1 48.2
20.021.4
24.0 22.3
21.6 24.225.2
21.519.9
22.925.7
24.528.2
29.0 26.2
22.3
24.725.6 26.9
25.928.0
27.329.7
31.9
29.430.9
31.630.8
30.6 30.9
38.7
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08
MIL
LIO
N T
ON
NE
S
SOYBEAN COTTONSEED RAPESEED SUNSEED PEANUT
222.7
195.5
175.9178.9172.2
201.4 209.2216.0
233.4
244.8
159.9
270.6
294.3
280.8
293.4
5
WORLD OILSEED PRODUCTION
209217 219 220
252 248 250
277285
292301
313 317 321
367376
391
376
20
45
70
95
120
145
170
195
220
245
270
295
320
345
370
395
420
Pro
du
cti
on
(m
il t
on
ne
s)
20.0%
21.0%
22.0%
23.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
27.0%
28.0%
29.0%
30.0%
31.0%
32.0%
33.0%
34.0%
35.0%
36.0%
US
Pro
du
cti
on
(%
of
To
tal)
WORLD US Production as % of World
First decline since 95/96, decline is record large
6
World Soybean Production, Thousand Tonnes
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
240,000
260,000
87/
88
88/
89
89/
90
90/
91
91/
92
92/
93
93/
94
94/
95
95/
96
96/
9797
/98
98/9
999
/00
00/0
101
/02
02/0
303
/04
04/0
505
/06
06/0
707
/08
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Change (right scale) World total (left scale)
Record yearly decline in world soybean production, assuming normal South American yields
7
SOUTH AMERICAN SOYBEAN PRODUCTION
32.5 31.3 34.239.3
43.552.0 51.0 53.0
57.0 59.0 61.0
19.5 20.021.2
27.8
40.5
47.247.0
3.0 3.0
3.5
4.53.9
4.0
6.5
1.2 1.1
1.9
1.4
2.4
2.8
35.530.0
33.0
39.0
6.0
3.5
2.9
4.1
2.4
2.7
1.4
2.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08
Pro
du
cti
on
(m
il t
on
ne
s)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Brazil Argentina Paraguay Other S.A. US
56.255.4
60.2
78.4
72.0
94.0
89.8
102.2
114.6
98.7
117.4
Relatively small increase in South America production is expected. Would not take much of a crop problem before production is lower than the previous year
8
9
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08USDAFeb
07/08Citi Est
08/09Citi Proj
stock deviation
US Soybeans Stock Deviation
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08USDAFeb
07/08CitiEst
08/09CitiProj
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
C/O
S/U ratio
US Soybeans Carry Out and Stock To Use Ratio
11
US Soybean Ending Stocks, Million Bushels
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
6507
1/7
2
72/
73
73/
74
74/
75
75/
76
76/
77
77/
78
78/
79
79/
80
80/
81
81/
82
82/
83
83/
84
84/
85
85/
86
86/
87
87/
88
88/
89
89/
90
90/
91
91/
92
92/
93
93/
94
94/
95
95/
96
96/
97
97/
98
98/
99
99/
00
00/
01
01/
02
02/
03
03/
04
04/
05
05/
06
06/
07C
iti
07/
08C
iti
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
28
30
Ending Stocks, Left Scale Stocks/Use, Right Scale
US stocks are declining to minimum levels. No signs of sufficient rationing yet. Supply tightness in the 08/09 season could become more severe if a large increase in area is not secured.
12
13
BRAZILIAN SOYBEAN AREA, PRODUCTION, AND YIELD
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09
AR
EA
IN
MIL
LIO
N H
EC
TA
RE
S
P
RO
DU
CT
ION
IN
MIL
LIO
N T
ON
NE
S
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
TO
NN
ES
/HE
CT
AR
E
AREA PRODUCTION YIELD Linear (YIELD)
Caution, La Nina could reduce yields for Southern Brazil
14
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09SOYBEANS
AREA MIL HA 13.60 13.93 16.35 18.45 21.52 22.80 22.23 20.70 21.80YLD MT/HA 2.55 2.83 2.66 2.82 2.37 2.32 2.56 2.81 2.80BEG. STOCKS 0.40 0.62 0.46 0.68 3.30 3.49 1.52 2.33 2.74PRODUCTION 34.70 39.50 43.50 52.00 51.00 53.00 57.00 59.00 61.04IMPORTS 0.80 0.86 1.05 1.12 0.37 0.35 0.04 0.04 0.08SUPPLY 35.90 40.98 45.01 53.80 54.66 56.84 58.56 61.37 63.86
CRUSH 21.58 22.77 25.84 27.80 28.91 29.73 28.75 31.25 31.70EXPORTS 11.78 15.52 16.07 19.99 19.26 22.80 24.77 24.48 26.35SFR 1.93 2.22 2.41 2.72 3.00 2.80 2.70 2.90 3.10TOTAL USE 35.29 40.52 44.33 50.50 51.17 55.33 56.22 58.63 61.15
END STOCKS 0.62 0.46 0.68 3.30 3.49 1.52 2.33 2.74 2.71
SOYMEAL
BEG. STOCKS 0.44 0.46 0.36 0.62 0.86 0.77 0.82 0.86 1.42PRODUCTION 16.83 17.72 20.10 21.68 22.55 23.10 22.08 24.06 24.73IMPORTS 0.12 0.23 0.37 0.29 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.07 0.11SUPPLY 17.39 18.41 20.82 22.59 23.59 24.06 23.10 25.00 26.26
DOMESTIC 7.06 6.92 7.42 8.19 8.26 9.02 9.96 10.92 11.30EXPORTS 9.87 11.13 12.78 13.54 14.56 14.23 12.28 12.65 13.65TOTAL USE 16.93 18.05 20.20 21.73 22.82 23.25 22.23 23.58 24.95
END STOCKS 0.46 0.36 0.62 0.86 0.77 0.82 0.86 1.42 1.31
SOYOIL
BEG. STOCKS 0.20 0.25 0.11 0.17 0.20 0.28 0.27 0.31 0.32PRODUCTION 2.24 2.34 2.58 2.76 2.99 3.12 2.78 3.20 3.26IMPORTS 0.05 0.02 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.01SUPPLY 2.49 2.61 2.75 2.95 3.21 3.39 3.07 3.51 3.60
DOMESTIC 3.03 2.99 2.91 2.96 2.98 3.00 3.13 3.46 4.15EXPORTS 1.13 1.62 2.10 2.40 2.53 2.74 2.31 2.57 2.03TOTAL USE 4.16 4.61 5.01 5.37 5.51 5.74 5.45 6.03 6.18
END STOCKS 0.25 0.11 0.17 0.20 0.28 0.27 0.31 0.32 0.31
MEAL EQUIV 19.23 23.47 25.56 29.43 29.87 32.35 31.97 32.11 34.60OIL EQUIV 3.37 4.57 5.15 6.20 6.19 7.07 7.02 7.22 7.04
BRAZIL SOYBEAN COMPLEX SUPPLY/USAGE
FEB-JAN, MILLION TONNES
15
ARGENTINA SOYBEAN AREA, PRODUCTION, AND YIELD
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09
AR
EA
IN
MIL
LIO
N H
EC
TA
RE
S
P
RO
DU
CT
ION
IN
MIL
LIO
N T
ON
NE
S
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
TO
NN
ES/
HE
CT
AR
E
AREA PRODUCTION YIELD Linear (YIELD)
La Nina could increase risk for adverse weather and lower yield
16
00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09SOYBEANS
AREA MIL HA 8.58 10.40 11.40 12.60 14.00 14.40 15.20 16.00 16.80YLD MT/HA 2.47 2.67 2.63 2.82 2.36 2.71 2.66 2.95 2.80BEG. STOCKS 0.29 0.46 0.87 1.94 2.76 3.68 2.38 2.41 3.54PRODUCTION 21.20 27.80 30.00 35.50 33.00 39.00 40.50 47.20 47.04IMPORTS 0.44 0.55 0.47 0.53 0.71 0.68 1.01 2.28 2.35SUPPLY 21.93 28.81 31.34 37.97 36.47 43.35 43.89 51.89 52.93
CRUSH 16.35 19.26 22.01 24.78 24.67 29.21 32.65 35.01 38.75EXPORTS 4.10 7.48 6.18 8.92 6.57 10.12 7.13 11.59 9.40SFR 1.01 1.19 1.20 1.50 1.55 1.65 1.70 1.75 1.90TOTAL USE 21.46 27.94 29.39 35.21 32.79 40.97 41.48 48.35 50.05
END STOCKS 0.46 0.87 1.94 2.76 3.68 2.38 2.41 3.54 2.88
SOYMEAL
BEG. STOCKS 0.33 0.15 0.27 0.26 0.38 0.48 0.33 0.39 0.26PRODUCTION 12.94 15.29 17.47 19.60 19.40 23.05 25.71 27.39 30.32SUPPLY 13.27 15.44 17.74 19.86 19.78 23.53 26.04 27.78 30.58
DOMESTIC 0.19 0.23 0.22 0.36 0.28 0.47 0.43 0.40 0.45EXPORTS 12.93 14.94 17.26 19.12 19.01 22.73 25.22 27.13 29.85TOTAL USE 13.12 15.17 17.49 19.48 19.29 23.20 25.65 27.53 30.30
END STOCKS 0.15 0.27 0.26 0.38 0.48 0.33 0.39 0.26 0.28
SOYOIL
BEG. STOCKS 0.09 0.11 0.13 0.20 0.17 0.22 0.20 0.26 0.30PRODUCTION 2.99 3.58 4.04 4.64 4.65 5.48 6.16 6.74 7.31SUPPLY 3.07 3.68 4.16 4.85 4.82 5.70 6.36 6.99 7.61
DOMESTIC 0.12 0.09 0.18 0.34 0.21 0.38 0.32 0.36 0.80EXPORTS 2.85 3.47 3.78 4.34 4.39 5.12 5.78 6.34 6.52TOTAL USE 2.97 3.56 3.96 4.68 4.60 5.50 6.10 6.69 7.32
END STOCKS 0.11 0.13 0.20 0.17 0.22 0.20 0.26 0.30 0.29
MEAL EQUIV 16.19 20.89 22.18 26.22 24.23 30.77 30.89 36.35 37.32OIL EQUIV 3.61 4.86 4.92 5.99 5.60 6.99 7.10 8.48 8.26
ARGENTINE SOYBEAN COMPLEX SUPPLY/USAGE
MAR-FEB, MILILON TONNES
17
18
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
900.00
1000.00
1100.00
1200.00
1300.00
1400.00
21/0
7/04
21/0
8/04
21/0
9/04
21/1
0/04
21/1
1/04
21/1
2/04
21/0
1/05
21/0
2/05
21/0
3/05
21/0
4/05
21/0
5/05
21/0
6/05
21/0
7/05
21/0
8/05
21/0
9/05
21/1
0/05
21/1
1/05
21/1
2/05
21/0
1/06
21/0
2/06
21/0
3/06
21/0
4/06
21/0
5/06
21/0
6/06
21/0
7/06
21/0
8/06
21/0
9/06
21/1
0/06
21/1
1/06
21/1
2/06
21/0
1/07
21/0
2/07
21/0
3/07
21/0
4/07
21/0
5/07
21/0
6/07
21/0
7/07
21/0
8/07
21/0
9/07
21/1
0/07
21/1
1/07
21/1
2/07
21/0
1/08
CBOT Soybeans Futures Prices (nearby contract)
19
JUL08-NOV08 Futures Spread
-160.00
-140.00
-120.00
-100.00
-80.00
-60.00
-40.00
-20.00
0.00
20.00
40.00
15
/11
/05
15
/12
/05
15
/01
/06
15
/02
/06
15
/03
/06
15
/04
/06
15
/05
/06
15
/06
/06
15
/07
/06
15
/08
/06
15
/09
/06
15
/10
/06
15
/11
/06
15
/12
/06
15
/01
/07
15
/02
/07
15
/03
/07
15
/04
/07
15
/05
/07
15
/06
/07
15
/07
/07
15
/08
/07
15
/09
/07
15
/10
/07
15
/11
/07
15
/12
/07
15
/01
/08
15
/02
/08
20
Soybean Meal outlook
21
WORLD SOYBEAN/SOYBEAN MEAL IMPORT/EXPORT MATRIX(October-September) (Thousand tonnes)
2005-06 2006-07
IMPORTERS BEANS MEAL SBME* BEANS MEAL SBME* BEANS MEAL SBME*
EU-27 13940 22822 33904 15300 22600 34764 15350 24200 36403OTHER EUR 540 561 990 500 600 998 450 600 958FSU 5 801 805 40 850 882 400 900 1218CANADA 300 1342 1581 250 1385 1584 250 1450 1649MEXICO 3600 1728 4590 4000 1900 5080 3800 1950 4971O.W.HEM 950 5099 5854 1100 5400 6275 1000 5500 6295CHINA 28317 836 23348 28723 32 22867 33000 800 27035TAIWAN 2400 92 2000 2500 200 2188 2300 100 1929JAPAN 3950 1601 4741 4100 1700 4960 3950 1725 4865SOUTH KOREA 1100 1773 2648 1300 1850 2884 1200 2000 2954THAILAND 1450 2042 3195 1600 2300 3572 1525 2350 3562MALAYSIA 380 779 1081 500 900 1298 500 950 1348INDONESIA 1200 2071 3025 1600 2300 3572 1525 2400 3612PHILIPPINES 100 1272 1352 150 1500 1619 100 1500 1580OTHER ASIA 200 2179 2338 300 2202 2441 250 2400 2599MIDDLE EAST 2800 2149 4375 3080 2700 5149 3200 2850 5394EGYPT 750 441 1037 1100 300 1175 1200 300 1254MOROCCO 400 77 395 500 140 538 500 150 548ALGERIA 0 631 631 0 660 660 0 700 700OTHER AFR 20 1327 1343 20 1500 1516 20 1550 1566OTHER 380 586 888 479 837 1218 235 1250 1437TOTAL 62782 50209 100120 67142 51856 105234 70755 55625 111875
EXPORTERSARGENTINA 7300 24509 30312 9510 25938 33499 11100 28400 37225BRAZIL 25911 12869 33468 23485 12712 31383 26475 13543 34591U.S. 26417 7301 28302 30347 8036 32162 27285 7922 29614INDIA 0 3680 3680 0 3470 3470 0 3810 3810PARAGUAY 2400 850 2758 3000 950 3335 5000 1100 5075BOLIVIA 92 1000 1073 100 750 830 120 850 945URAGUAY 662 0 526 700 0 557 775 0 616
----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- TOTAL 62782 50209 100120 67142 51856 105234 70755 55625 111875
2007-08
22
23
24
SOYBEAN MEAL / CORN MONTHLY NEARBY FUTURES PRICE RATIO
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25Ja
n-8
0
Ja
n-8
1
Ja
n-8
2
Ja
n-8
3
Ja
n-8
4
Ja
n-8
5
Ja
n-8
6
Ja
n-8
7
Ja
n-8
8
Ja
n-8
9
Ja
n-9
0
Ja
n-9
1
Ja
n-9
2
Ja
n-9
3
Ja
n-9
4
Ja
n-9
5
Ja
n-9
6
Ja
n-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Ja
n-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Ja
n-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Ja
n-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Ra
tio
Source: CQG Expect the meal/corn ratio to move to 2.5. Based on a corn price of $3.15-$4.75 per bushel, soybean meal would be $288-$424 per ton
25
Crush Margins
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
06
/05
/04
06
/07
/04
06
/09
/04
06
/11
/04
06
/01
/05
06
/03
/05
06
/05
/05
06
/07
/05
06
/09
/05
06
/11
/05
06
/01
/06
06
/03
/06
06
/05
/06
06
/07
/06
06
/09
/06
06
/11
/06
06
/01
/07
06
/03
/07
06
/05
/07
06
/07
/07
06
/09
/07
06
/11
/07
06
/01
/08
26
120.00
170.00
220.00
270.00
320.00
370.00
02/0
1/04
02/0
3/04
02/0
5/04
02/0
7/04
02/0
9/04
02/1
1/04
02/0
1/05
02/0
3/05
02/0
5/05
02/0
7/05
02/0
9/05
02/1
1/05
02/0
1/06
02/0
3/06
02/0
5/06
02/0
7/06
02/0
9/06
02/1
1/06
02/0
1/07
02/0
3/07
02/0
5/07
02/0
7/07
02/0
9/07
02/1
1/07
02/0
1/08
CBOT Soybean Meal Futures Prices
27
Soybean Oil Outlook
28
29
30
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
02/0
1/04
02/0
3/04
02/0
5/04
02/0
7/04
02/0
9/04
02/1
1/04
02/0
1/05
02/0
3/05
02/0
5/05
02/0
7/05
02/0
9/05
02/1
1/05
02/0
1/06
02/0
3/06
02/0
5/06
02/0
7/06
02/0
9/06
02/1
1/06
02/0
1/07
02/0
3/07
02/0
5/07
02/0
7/07
02/0
9/07
02/1
1/07
02/0
1/08
CBOT Soybean Oil Futures Prices
31
Soy Complex
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
400.00
450.00
500.00
550.00
02/0
1/04
10/0
2/04
18/0
3/04
26/0
4/04
02/0
6/04
09/0
7/04
17/0
8/04
23/0
9/04
29/1
0/04
07/1
2/04
14/0
1/05
23/0
2/05
01/0
4/05
09/0
5/05
15/0
6/05
22/0
7/05
29/0
8/05
05/1
0/05
10/1
1/05
19/1
2/05
27/0
1/06
07/0
3/06
12/0
4/06
19/0
5/06
27/0
6/06
03/0
8/06
11/0
9/06
17/1
0/06
22/1
1/06
02/0
1/07
08/0
2/07
19/0
3/07
25/0
4/07
01/0
6/07
10/0
7/07
15/0
8/07
21/0
9/07
29/1
0/07
05/1
2/07
14/0
1/08
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00Meal
Sbeans
Oil
32
Corn Outlook
33
34
35
36
CORN STOCKS TO USE RATIO VS. CROP YEAR AVERAGE PRICES FOR CORN1989-2006
150
200
250
300
350
400
2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.0 27.0
STOCKS TO USE AS PERCENTAGE
CE
NT
/BU
SH
EL
95/96
96/97
91/92
90/91
94/95
92/93
99/00
97/98
98/99
00/01
03/04
02/03
93/94
01/02
89/90
04/05
U
05/06
CITI07-08
06/07
USDA 07-08
Source: USDA, CQG, & Citi
Ethanol keeps shifting the price curve upwards. The price curve is likely higher than the line running through 06/07.
37
Soybeans – Corn Ratio
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
02
/01
/01
02
/04
/01
02
/07
/01
02
/10
/01
02
/01
/02
02
/04
/02
02
/07
/02
02
/10
/02
02
/01
/03
02
/04
/03
02
/07
/03
02
/10
/03
02
/01
/04
02
/04
/04
02
/07
/04
02
/10
/04
02
/01
/05
02
/04
/05
02
/07
/05
02
/10
/05
02
/01
/06
02
/04
/06
02
/07
/06
02
/10
/06
02
/01
/07
02
/04
/07
02
/07
/07
02
/10
/07
02
/01
/08
38
CBOT Corn Futures Prices
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
02
/01
/04
02
/03
/04
02
/05
/04
02
/07
/04
02
/09
/04
02
/11
/04
02
/01
/05
02
/03
/05
02
/05
/05
02
/07
/05
02
/09
/05
02
/11
/05
02
/01
/06
02
/03
/06
02
/05
/06
02
/07
/06
02
/09
/06
02
/11
/06
02
/01
/07
02
/03
/07
02
/05
/07
02
/07
/07
02
/09
/07
02
/11
/07
02
/01
/08
39
Thank you!
40
41
42