09 awea small wind global market study

8/14/2019 09 AWEA Small Wind Global Market Study

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AWEA Sma W TeGa Maet St

YEAR ENDING 20 08


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Ron Stimmel I Small-Wind Advocate

1501 M St. NW, Suite 1000 I Washington, DC 20005 I Ph: (202) 383-2546 I [email protected] I www.awea.org/small wind


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SMAll Wind TurbinE GlobAl MArkET STudy: 2009 | 1

Tae Ctets

Smma ........................................................................................................................................... 3

Sve Fgs a Aass ........................................................................................................... 4

Cet Maet Stats ............................................................................................................... 4

Gwth Pteta A Pjects ............................................................................................. 6

States ........................................................................................................................................ 6

Pteta Maet Facts (See As The 2008 St) ............................................................... 6

ivestmet .............................................................................................................................. 10

Js ........................................................................................................................................ 10

dspace Ca dxe...................................................................................................... 10bg-Mte Tes ..................................................................................................... 10

Maactg ................................................................................................................................. 11

Maacte Pe ................................................................................................................ 11

Ga dstt Maactes ..................................................................................... 11

Maactg Tes ............................................................................................................. 12

Cmpas t Sa Phtvtacs ............................................................................................... 13

Gwth .................................................................................................................................... 13

Csts ....................................................................................................................................... 14

The Ga Maet .......................................................................................................................... 15The uS Pst ...................................................................................................................... 15

Fee-i Tas ......................................................................................................................... 16

ute kgm ...................................................................................................................... 16

Caaa ................................................................................................................................... 16

respg Maactes............................................................................................................. 17

Methg ................................................................................................................................... 18

bgaph a othe resces ................................................................................................. 19


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2 | AMEriCAn Wind EnErGy ASSoCiATion


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US Small WInd market

groWS 78% In 2008Iusy Scus l-t F Iciv

Fis Sic 1985

The uS maet sma w tes thse wth capactes

100 W1 a e gew 78% 2008 wth a ata 17.3

MW stae capact. Ths gwth s age atttae t

cease pvate eqt vestmet that awe maactg

vmes t cease, patca the cmmeca segmet

the maet (sstems 21-100W). The st-agest segmet themaet, eseta (1-10W), was ewse ve vestmet

a maactg ecmes scae, t as sg

eseta eectct pces a a heghtee pc awaeess

the techg a ts atttes.

The st pjects 30- gwth wth as tte as ve

eas, espte a ga ecess, a cmatve uS stae

capact 1,700 MW the e 2013. Mch ths

estmate gwth w e spe the ew eght-ea 30%

eea ivestmet Tax Cet passe Cgess octe

2008 a agmete Fea 2009.

The maet has ecme mate g-cecte ts

a w e cte ths te as these age sstems

ecme me aae.

The uS ctes t cmma gh ha the ga maet

shae a s hme t e-th the 219 ete wwe

maactes. Sma w s st a ace wth the sa

phtvtac st twa g pat pce pe watt-

h pa wth cveta ms eectct a w

th stes ej ea etca eea cetves a

me eve pag e.

o Sisics

80 MW cmatve stae sma-w capact

the uS.

uS maactes saes acct the ga maet.

$160 m tse vestmet was jecte t

18 maactes wwe ve the past thee eas.

At east 219 cmpaes wwe maacte sma

w sstems, 35% whch ae ase the uS.

ist pects a cmatve uS capact 1,700 MW

wth ve eas.

Smma

2008 U.S. Ss 2008 gb Ss

17.3 MW 38.7 MW

78% gwth ve 2007 53% gwth ve 2007

10,500 ts 19,000 ts

$77 m saes $156 m saes


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CUrrent market StatUS

base a sve eag maactes, 2008 gwth

was age e t the avaat capta a vet,

a the evt maactg ecmes scae.

Pvate eqt vestmet has awe spp t catch p t a

ema that has ee csstet stg ve ecet eas.

bette maacte captazat has e t a cease

pct vmes, saes ces, a techca sppt wth

va cmpaes.

leag extea maet acts ce sg a vate pces

cveta eectct, state cetves, csme ecat,

a a cease pc cce evmeta sses.

despte ec gwth, the eseta (1-10W) a

cmmeca (21-100W) maet segmets shwe a

appxmate 20% wt ate 2008 a ea 2009

e t a a ecmc ecess, t as ecase

tpca saes p-s g wte mths. despte the

p, ea 2009 eseta saes wee st 15-20% hghe

tha ea 2008.

Cmmeca-sect cstmes have ct secg

acg the tpca me expesve tes ths

maet, a have Pwe Pchase Ageemets (PPA)

t e a me attactve acg meth.2 Cmmeca PPAs

eae sesses, schs, gvemets, a ttes t

csme eewae eectct whe avg hgh capta

csts a ss asscate wth wg the geeatg

eqpmet. The PPA me has ee ve ppa the sa

phtvtac (PV) st ecet eas pma ecase

the eea vestmet tax cet ceate the 2005 Eeg

Pc Act pve a a me gees cetve (30% the

tta stae sstem cst) cmmeca appcats tha

eseta, whch was mte t $2,000. Sma w a

sa w ej a g-tem, cappe 30% tax cet th

cmmeca a eseta appcats.

PPAs w e ecme me ppa 2009 as the expae

cetve taes eet a cet emas estcte thght

the ecm.

tb 1. gw by m S

US: Uis, 2008 0-0.9W 1-10W 11-20W 21-100W ts

o-G 6,706 696 0 0 7,402

o-G 0 2,825 72 87 2,984

Ttas 6,706 3,521 72 87 10,386

US: W, 2008 0-0.9W 1-10W 11-20W 21-100W ts

o-G 2,784 980 0 0 3,764

o-G 0 6.619 1,331 5,660 13,610

Ttas 2,784 7,599 1,331 5,660 17,374

W t 2008 Uis W

o-G 13,902 7,536

o-G 4,992 26,065

Tta 18,894 33,601

* Whee cmat was avaae, ths st assmes a tes e 1W, a 90% tes eqa t 1W, ae -g. Sevea mes ca e se ethe - -g appcats.

Sve Fgs a Aass


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On-Grid

Off-Grid

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

kWS

oldinUS

Turbine size range

0-0.9kW

2784

980

6,619

1331

5,660

1-10kW 11-20kW 21-100kW0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

21-100kW11-20kW1-11kW0-0.9kW

2006

2007

2008

NewCapacity(kW)

Turbine Size Range

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

Sales ($US x 10,000)kWUnits

14% Growth

78% Growth

73% Growth

FIgUre 1: U.S. Small WInd tUrBIne market, 2008 FIgUre 2: U.S. market Segment groWth

FIgUre 3: groWth oF U.S. Small WInd market

The market has become dominated by grid-connected units

and will likely continue in this trend as these larger systems

become more affordable and available.

The residential and upper-commercial market segments

experienced the sharpest growth in 2008.


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F a maet segmets, st pects that the eea

vestmet tax cet (see Pteta Maet Facts) w

cte t hep cease pct a the ece

csme csts. The ceatech ecm sect geeahas ee eatve stg thght the ga ecess a

cet css, a sma w s except. Eve amst the

wt, ecmes scae ae egg t tae shape

the st a gwth pjects ae the stgest the

sts 80-ea hst.

groWth PotentIal and ProJeCtIonS

Maactes pect a 30- cease the uS maet

as tte as ve eas, eve e cet ecmc

cts. Pma ves ce the eght-ea 30% eea

vestmet tax cet eacte octe 2008, ecet a

pteta pvate eqt vestmet, a geate eqpmet

maactg capates. Ths gwth pject s mch

greater than the 40-50% annual growth predcted n the 2008

study, and s far beyond the average annual growth of 14-25%

year-over-year growth the ndustry has seen over the past decade.(See also Potental Market Factors and the 2008 AWEA study.)

StateS

i geea, states that e csme cetves at a eve

$2 pe Watt capact geate attact the stgest shae

the sma-w maet. base a sve eseta-

te pves, states wth hghest saes pecetages

2008 wee CA, nV, AZ, or, ny, MA, a oH. new Jese

a Hawa w have ee ae t ths st, sa st

memes, wee t t the sa cmesme

pemttg pcesses whch have sevee estcte the

maets.3 (See as Pteta Maet Facts.)

PotentIal market FaCtorS (S s 2008 suy)

New ederal incentives. o octe 3, 2008 Cgess

passe the Emegec Ecmc Stazat Act 2008,

H.r. 1424, that ces a ew eght-ea, 30% eea-eve

vestmet tax cet (iTC) t hep csmes pchase

qae sma w sstems wth ate capactes 100

watts (W) a ess. The amt ths cet was

stget cappe, hweve, t the passage The

Ameca recve a revestmet Act 2009, H.r. 1,

Fea 17, 2009 whch emve the cst caps. A 30%

iTC s w avaae sma w te csmes

thgh deceme 31, 2016. (F a st the cetves

eettg sma w ctae ths egsat, see

www.awea.g/egsatve/p/AWEA_Smma_ArrA_

Pvss__iteest_t_Sma_W.p. See as the

dataase State icetves reewaes a Ecec

We ste at http://sesa.g.)

tb 2. gi-ti rsii m Pi

2010* 2020**

Hmes wth t 1 ace a 12.0 13.9

Hmes wth >1 ace a 25.2 29.3

Gss pteta me hmes sma w tes 37.2 43.2

net pteta me hmes sma w tes 13.0 15.1

* Ms u.S. hmes cecte t the tt g

**Gwth accg t u.S. Cess bea, Ameca Hsg Sve, 1998.

Appxmate 35% these hmes w have a scet w esce, ee as a u.S. depatmet Eeg w cass 2 ette. T meet the eectca ees a tpca u.S.

hme, a sma w te a meate w egme mst have a t amete 16 t 25 eet a e stae a twe 60 t 150 eet ta. These mess ae stae hmes

sma t szes.

A ata ths tae s tae m the AWEA Sma W Te ist ramap (2002).

New

Cumulative

Megawatts(MW)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

20132012201120102009200820072006

FIgUre 4: U.S. market groWth ProJeCtIonS


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Ths egsat mae the st eea cetve the sma

w st ve 20 eas a pves the st wth

stae, g-tem pc that has hstca ee t each

the eewaes stes. ist memes vae tspassage as a mptat step twa achevg ptca pat

wth sa phtvtacs (PV) st, sma ws maet

ctepat, whch has eje a eea iTC sce 2005.

Sce the eea cetve was t eacte t the e

2008, a t expae t ea 2009, t s e that t

was a pma ve eh the 2008 sge saes.

External investment. See ivestmet, page 10.

Zoning/permitting. P aset ca pemttg pactces

thwat a estmate 1/3 a pteta sma w testaats. uecessa estctve egats, patca

heght mtats, ca mt a tes pctvt, scage

cstmes a vestmet, a epe ca st-eate

sesses m cmmtes. See the 2008 AWEA pemttg

ge, i the Pc iteest: Hw a Wh t Pemt

Sma W Sstems at www.awea.g/smaw/p/

iThePciteest.p.

State policies and incentives. At the state, tt, a ca

eves, pces cte t e agmete a cstat

chagg acss egs a eve cmmtes, as state the maps ave.

Tp state, tt, a ca pc gas the st

cte t e t:

icease the avaat a sze aca cetves,

Steame zg aces at the ca state eve,

Staaze g tecect es a pcees,

a

impemet mpve state/tt et meteg pces.

Gwth t jst saes, t the me maactes,

eaes, staes, spp cha memes, a stavcates has e t a age st pesece at ca eves,

cg pemttg sses t the e a geate me

cmmtes. Wth a estmate 25,000 eet ca zg

jscts the u.S.4, hweve, AWEA a st memes

ae attemptg t aess pemttg chaeges at ae

eves cg at state eve eea eves gvemet.

State a tt csme cetve pgams eewaes,

FIgUre 5: State PolICIeS and InCentIVeS

Maps pepae T Fsth the nata reewae Eeg laat, sg ata m: dSirEuSA

May 2007 November 2008

$

$

$

$

$

$ $

$

$

$

$

$

$

RPS

$

$

l i i l

l i l l i l - l

Residential Small Wind Incentives

www.dsireusa.org

Property Tax Incentives

Buydown/Grants& Net Metering

Buydown /Grants,Net Metering,& Loans

ProductivityIncentives& Loans

Net Metering,Loans & Prod.Incentives

Buydowns/grants Productivity Incentives Minor Incentives

$

$

$

$

$

$ $

$

$

$ Income Tax Credits

$

$

$

RPS$Puerto Rico $Puerto Rico

$

$

Buydown/Grants

Residential Small Wind Incentives

$

$

$

$

$

$ $

$

$

$

$

$$

$

$

$

$

RPS

ProductivityIncentives


Net Metering& Loans

Net Metering

Loans

Buydown/Grants& Net Metering

Buydown /Grants,Net Metering,& Loans

ProductivityIncentives& Loans


Buydowns/grants Productivity Incentives Minor Incentives

Buydown/Grants ProductivityIncentives


Net Metering& Loans

Net Metering

Loans

Property Tax Incentives

$ Income Tax Credits


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patca sa phtvtacs, have ece ecet eas

e t cstae state a tt gets a the tct

a expas a eea vestmet tax cet (iTC).5 The

same ma cc sma w, whch w ejs a eeaiTC that sme states see as a psse ssttte the w

cetve pgams. ist sees a ee the eea a

state cetves t w ccet athe tha as sstttes

e t have the ese maet stms.

A sma ha states have chse t ece the cetve

eves a pe-pject ass e t ct csts whe assstg

the same ( age) amt csmes. The te s t

vesa, hweve, as the states have chse stea t

expa the cetve pgams wth the hep cease

s thgh the Ameca recve a revestmet Act

2009 passe Fea 2009.6

The economic recession. Shap ps cmmt pces

ate 2008 a ea 2009 have hepe t we the csts

sa phtvtac (PV) ces csea, whch ae ase

the aw matea psc. Pteta csmes have as

ha geate ct secg aae hme mpvemet

as sce the egg the ecess a 2008,

aectg the eseta sma-w maet. Hstca, sma

w has ee csea me cst-cmpettve tha sa

PV a cst pe watt-h ass, t a sge sa

vestmet, a hea-stat eea cetves, a ag

pct csts w e est PV csts at eves me

cmpetetve wth sma w.

Rising electricity prices. reseta eectct pces ae

pjecte t se at aa ates at 1.1% 2009 a

1.8% 2010 a w e ctte t a st sma-

w saes.7 Hghe pevag ates eseta, sta,

a cmmeca eectct mae sma w tes me

cmpettve wth cveta eectct sces a

cemeta-cst ass. itage eets sma w,

sch as pvg a csstet a pectae spp a

cst eectct 20-30 eas, c a t ts vea

vae t csmes.

Utility policies. recet eas have see a sght pwa te

the qatt a qat state/tt et meteg aws a

pactces (see States), t the pc s a m staaze

vesa mpemete.

G tecect es a pcees w as have a

ceasg eect the st as the maet ctes

t sht twa g-cecte sstems. Whe aaze

a cmesme tecect es a pcees

ae thwat staats cmpete, the te mag

staats tme, expese, a cmpext. The nata

Fe Ptect Asscat w e ceate a sect ts

nata Eectc Ce (nEC) specca sma w

Sce: uS depatmet Eeg / Eeg imat Amstat. www.ea.e.gv/

eme/ste/p/gs/Fg21.g

-2%

0%

ChangefromP

riorYear

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

200820062004200220001998

FIgUre 6: U.S. reSIdentIal eleCtrICItY PrICe

Transportation,


11/24


tes ts ext evs 2011. Ths w expct st

eectca saet eqemets sma w tes a

t hep steame g tecect pcesses. Eectca

saet has t hstca pesete a chaege t sma wstaats e exstg nEC egats, t ppets

the avacemet cte a ee t estash sma w

the Ce as a vestmet the sts te a as a

amew gwth.

Installer and equipment certifcation. Pgams ae eag

cmpet t cet sma w te eqpmet a thse

wh sta them the Sma W Cetcat Cc

(SWCC)8 a the nth Ameca ba Cete Eeg

Pacttes (nAbCEP)9, espectve. Whe th pgams

w e vta, maet ces ae e t stttaze

them thght the st. A me states havecate that the pa t mae cetcat a eqemet t

tecect t the eectct g, ta a zg pemt, a/

eceve pc cetve s.

Increased public awareness. Sma w was the sject

10% a mea qes at AWEA 2008 athe ec-

eag ea whe st cmpsg ess tha 1% the w

eeg st ( tems 2008 stae capact). ist

epts that pc expse, whch has ee pemat

pstve, heps t hghght ca pc ees a sts,

geeate csme qes, a peset the techg as

masteam.

Federal renewable electricity standard. legsat s

expecte t e csee aga 2009 that w ceate a

at-we eqemet maj ttes t eve a ceta

pecetage the geeat m eewae sces a

ceta ate. Cae a eewae eectct staa rES,

ths tpe pc cet exsts 28 states a ve 35

ctes a has ceate a sstae maet eewaes

these aeas. depeg hw the pc s stcte, a

rES ma pve a cetve ttes t ecage sma-

scae, cstme-ste eewaes e sma w tes te ae t the geeat mx. F me mat the

rES a the egsat, see www.awea.g/egsatve.

A maj rES s ppse the ecet past w aw

eectct geeate stte eewae geeats,

e sma w sstems, t e cte as thee tmes as

vaae as eectct geeate m cetaze eewaes.

Ths ma pve cetves ttes t w a peate

sma w sstems, t ecage csmes t geeate a

sps eectct, t the evmeta atttes

a cstmes excess geeat the m eewae

eectct cets, rECs.

Federal climate change legislation. Cgess ma cse

egsat the eseeae te that w estash a

ceg, cap, ca xe (Co2) emsss awe

a ecm-we ass. reewae eeg sstems e

sma w tes, whch emt Co2, c ecme me

cst-cmpettve e ths aw.

i e t emt geehse gases wth the cap, ettes

w have t acqe pt awaces, m the eea

gvemet, ethe ee thgh act. Ettes that

eceve awaces t t ee them t set theemsss (ecase the pce tte Co

2) w the

e awe t se the awaces t thes that ee

them. Ths sstem s w as cap-a-tae.

depeg heav the stcte (a passage)

ths egsat, stte eewae eeg geeat

techges e sma w sstems c eet ect

a ect. i the, eea act pcees c e

se t csme cetve pgams, a states a

ttes c eceve cetves the apt pces that

sppt stte eewaes.

AWEA s actve avcatg cmate chage egsat

a that t ces pvss t hep sma w. F me

mat see www.awea.g/egsatve.

Improved resource assessment technology. Aveage

pevag w spee s the sec mst sgcat act

a tes ate et vestmet, eh

aca cetves (see as Csts the 2008 st).

Sevea pvate-sect cmpaes have evepe me

avace techges ecet eas t et gegaphc

egs wth the geatest aveage w spees, a theuS depatmet Eeg eease a Fg opptt

Acemet 2008 cag the evepmet a

csme-e ste aass t t eet stte

w techg.10 These ew ts c hep te sma

w staats e me pctve a e csmes

me pectat the vestmet.

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. The Ameca recve a


12/24


revestmet Act, passe Fea 2009, athze $14.4

cetves a as pg- eectc h vehce

(PHEV) csmes a pces.11 Peset oama as

cate hs peseta campag hs ese t have em PHEVs a eectc vehces uS as 2015.12 A

gwg maet ths techg w tase a egee

ema m t the eseta eectct sect, a t

pteta t -ste eewae eectct geeats e sma

w sstems.

Wind-diesel hybrid systems. oe qate tes 50-100

W s 2008 wee se w-ese h appcats

emte cats, patca Aasa a Caaa.

icetves ths appcat tpe ae ceasg the uS

a Caaa, a maactes ths maet segmet te

a peceete se ema.

InVeStment

The past thee eas have ght ve $160 m extea

pvate eqt vestmet t ve 18 maactes wwe,

at ha whch ae uS maactes. Ths vestmet

was a mptat ve the sts ecet gwth.

Te pecet a vete capta the uS s veste the

cea techg sect13 t ctes t av the sa

st, whch eceve $1.8 (ea ha) a vete

g cea techg cmpaes 2008 espte a

ga ecess a a stae cet maet.14

JoBS

The estmate me js asscate wth the w eeg

st, cg sma w, w e eease as pat a

sepaate, cmpehesve AWEA st avaae ate 2009

at www.awea.g.

dISPlaCed CarBon dIoXIde

A sge eseta-scae te spaces the ca xe

(Co2) pce 1.5 aveage cas. The 80MW cmatve

sma-w stae capact the uS tasates t:16

13,300 cas set

9,200 eqvaet me hmes pwee

76,000 ts Co2

space pe ea

BUIldIng-moUnted tUrBIneS

i 2008 appxmate 200 ts wee s t e se

a tp appcats the uS,17 epesetg ess

tha 250W stae capact. Ths me st epesetsess tha 0.002% the uS sma-w maet, t a sght

cease ve the appxmate 100 ts s 2007.

At east 10 uS cmpaes maacte pa t maacte

g-mte mes, a hgh ppt whch ae

vetca-axs cgat.

0

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

200820072006

Tower-Mounted

Urban/Rooftop

FIgUre 9: UrBan rooFtoP tUrBIne market Share

AgricultureWater

Solar

Biofuels

Transportation(including electric

vehicles,

advanced batteries,

fuel cells)

Wind

SmartGrid

(including ethanol,

biodiesel,

synthetic biology,

algae)

FIgUre 8: toP VentUre CaPItal In 2008

Clean Technology Sectors

Sce: Ceatech Gp, llC


13/24


manUFaCtUrer ProFIleAt east 219 cmpaes maacte, pa t maacte,

sma w tes the w. o these:

Sevet- (34%) ae ase the ute States.

At east 36 (14 uS) have eg saes.

At east 45 (21 uS) maacte pa t maacte

vetca-axs sstems.18

A mmm ve maactes (tw uS) ega

saes 2008.

Cpy Cuy W Si 2008

Sthwest Wpwe uS (AZ) 10,000

Pve Eeg lt. uk (Scta) 4,800

nthe Pwe uS (VT) 4,300

Etegt W SstemsCaaa (PE) /

uS (Co)3,500

bege WPwe C. uS (ok) 1,700

Maactg

FIgUre 10: gloBal dIStrIBUtIon oF manUFaCtUrerS

Cuy (nub f mufcus)

uS (66)

Japa (28)

Caaa (23)

uk (18)

Gema (16)

Cha (14)

netheas (7)

Swee (5)

Sth Aca (4)

Spa (4)

ia (3)

Tawa (3)

Fa (2)

Face (2)

isae (2)

ita (2)

rssa (2)

Ageta (1)

Astaa (1)

Asta (1)

dema (1)

ia (1)

kea (1)

Pa (1)

new Zeaa (1)

Swtzea (1)


14/24


manUFaCtUrIng trendS

Maactg techqes h a e t hghe pct

vmes a we csts. i the a 2008 the uS

depatmet Eeg he tw wshps staehest evep a eseach a evepmet act pa

the w eeg st, cg the sma w te

sect. Staehes ete the wg maactg

ees m a eseach a evepmet pespectve, wth a

veachg cs weg a tes cst eeg:

Efciency

baes: impve ececes m appxmate 32% t

42-45%

Ateats: impve ececes m 65-80% t 90-92%

ivetes: ivetes e ess m mpvemet,

as mst ae ve 90% ecet. Mst vetes se sma w tes ae apte m thse se the

sa phtvtac st, whch has cse heav

mpvg vete ececes ve past ecaes.

Design

Cte t cease swept aea 19 t capte me eeg

whe mmzg esg as. Ths as ma ce the

se ew cmpste mateas a mg pcesses.

rece the me cmpets a sstem.

reseach eat sses petag t ghtg,

cs, eag cat, ateat wg

sat, a eectcs.

Fcs esg maactg techqes.

rece the vea se mateas tems ps

pe Watt.

Mmze the se mvg pats a mechaca g

sstems.impve te pemace w-w cts.

Cse cpatg me techg m tt-scae

tes sch as geaxes, mechaca eas, pw

t esgs, actve aw ct, sta t-ct, a

vaae-ptch aes, t cmmeca-scae (21-100W)

esgs.

Other

Apt avace twe matea esgs t ece

staat tme a cst.

devep pcesses a ts that ca me accate

pect a tes eeg pct at a gve ste.Estash st a we-tae stae/eae etws.

devep avace twe ats t ecease

staat tme.

devep weess a We-ase te pemace

mtg capates t mmze the eqec ste

spects.

Cte t evep a sppt pemace staas,

cetcat, a th-pat eqpmet testg stes.

The evepmet attees a the ms eectct

stage wee eteme t t e a st pt

cs. Maet mmetm s tte heav twa g-te

tes whch esseta se the eectct g as a meas

stage a t cpate attees.20


15/24


See the 2008 AWEA market study for other trends and

comparisons.

groWth

i as tte as thee eas the uS sma w te st

c match the 2007 ec gwth the sa phtvtac

(PV) st tems aa stae capact.

An uncapped, eght-year 30% federal nvestment tax credt

(iTC) s now avalable for both solar PV and small wnd, and

for both commercal and resdental applcatons.21 The federal

government now provdes nearly dentcal ncentves for the two

ndustres, except that the solar tax credt can be used by utltes.

The uS maet saw 292 MW g-te sa PV capact

ae 2008 a cmatve 792 MW. Cheape aw

mateas a mpve maactg pcesses ae weg

pces PV ces a paes, eag ma cmpaes t

pect that sa pwe c ecme cst cmpettve wth

ata gas-ee eectct as ea as 2011.22

Cmpas t Sa Phtvtacs

0

2000

1000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2015 20162014201320122011201020092008

5,700 MW

AnnualU.S.

Installations(MWp

DC)

Year

2,150 MW

1,650 MW

950 MW

Accelerated, Current ITC

Conservative, Current ITC

Accelerated, Reduced ITC

Conservative, Reduced ITC

FIgUre 13 : U.S. InStallatIon ForeCaStS 2008-2016 For Solar PhotoVoltaICS

Sce: navgat Cstg

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20082007200620052004200320022001

Solar PV

Small Wind

Megawatts(MW)

On-Grid

Off-Grid

Megawatts(MW)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

20082007200620052004200320022001

FIgUre 11 : neW Small WInd VS. Solar PV FIgUre 12: U.S. Solar PV groWth

PV ata sce: la Shew; SEiA 24


16/24


CoStS

Hgh pces sc-ase mes 2007 a ea 2008

e t cease maactg vestmet that eae hghe

pct vmes. bt ate 2008 ag pces thee cmmtes cppe, amm, a especa sc

(m a ecease ga ema semcct-ase

csme eectcs) este steep cst ects

sa PV pct, a pjecte spp sps, a mch

we csme pces ecaste 2009.25

Sma w sstems ae appxmate 90% stee a

cpate a sgcat amt cppe the geeats

a wg, a ae ths sma sscepte t fctatg

cmmt pces. Stee pces ea e 2008 t

have ppe shap ac t ea-2007 eves as ea

2009. Cppe pces as ppe shap t 2005 eves ate 2008 a ea 2009, e e t the ga ecess

egg that pe.26

A lawece beee nata laat st27 epts that

state cetves hepe psh the stae cst sa pwe

the uS w 28 pecet etwee 1998 a 2007 a that csts

eseta PV ece m $10.50/Watt 1998 t $7.60/Watt 2007. Factg aveage state/tt a eea cetves,

ths aveage pce ps t $5.10/Watt. Cmmeca PV aveage

a pst-cetve $3.80/Watt 2007, a 32% p sce 2001,

age e t the cappe iTC the cmmeca PV sect has

eje sce the Eeg Pc Act 2005.

Pces sma w cte t e we scattee e t

the mes acts aectg staat csts (see Csts

the 2008 st), t te t gavtate etwee $3-6/Watt.

Sma w te staats ae a me cstct-

tesve tha sa PV, whch ate ts maacte s age

a eectca pject. Expag the eea iTC t sma ww e aw ecmes scae t tae eect a pt

wwa pesse stae sma-te csts.

Sce: navgat Cstg 23

FIgUre 14: real modUle PrICeS and annUal gloBal PV InStallatIonS 1993-2008

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

$0.00

$1.00

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

2006 20082004200220001998199619941992

MW

Real Module Price (2007 $/W)

2007$/W

Global PV Installations (MW)

iceases ema a pces amm, cppe a sc


17/24


the US PoSItIon

Accg t a 2008 AWEA sve, uS maactes

accte 49% ga sma w saes 2008,

matag the hstca mat pst.28

Expts accte appxmate 28% uS

maactes saes (mease capact), a ecease

m 33% 2007. A vewhemg majt (94%)

ts s the uS 2008 wee pce uS

maactes, thgh ths s a sght ecease m

98% 2007. These tes ma sg a gwg

attactveess the uS maet.

uS state a gvemet cetves have eg t catch

p wth thse the maj te-pcg ctes.

Patca wth a cappe iTC, the uS appeas

pepae t eta a mpve ts maet shae the

ga st.

The Ga Maet

Export

Domestic

2008200720060

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

kW

Rest of World

US Market0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

200820072006

Export

Domestic0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

200820072006

FIgUre 16: U.S. manUFaCtUrerS eXPortS (W)

FIgUre 15: U.S. gloBal market Share (W)

FIgUre 17: U.S. manUFaCtUrerS eXPortSaS a PerCentage oF SaleS (W)


18/24


Feed-In tarIFFS

A gwg ga te t mpemet ee- tas (FiTs), a

tpe pct-ase aca cetve sma, -ste

eewae geeats, has age escape the uS pcaea t ate.29 A me uS states30 have tce

egsat that w ceate a ves the FiT, t mst

sa PV techg, a as Mach 2009 e has ee

eacte t aw specca t eet sma w sstems.

UnIted kIngdom

F mat at the sma w maet the ute

kgm, see the btsh W Eeg Asscats aa

maet ept at www.wea.cm/sma/ex.htm.

Canada

Mst Caaa pvces w e sme m a et

meteg pc, t a pvces t e Sasatchewa

ac aca cetves sma-w csmes. The

Caaa W Eeg Asscat (CaWEA) pas t

aess ths ee hg a -tme Sma W Avcate

2009 t w t sece eea a pvca cetves

sma w.

Gve the ght cetve cmate, CaWEA estmates that 30%

aa gwth s psse the Caaa maet, patca the cmmeca, w-ese h, a emte/-g

cmmt segmets.

tb 2: F-I tiffs

Cuis wi F-I tiffs

Astaa ita

Asta Japa

Caaa new Zeaa

Cha The netheas

Czech repc Ptga

Geat bta Sth Aca

Face Spa

Gema Swtzea*

Geece Te

iea* uae

isae* uSA

* Specca eets sma w techg.

Sce: Pa Gpe, www.w-ws.g/atces/ee_aws.htm


19/24


Eve e the 219 ete w sma w te

maactes was scte the 2008 AWEA sma w

maactg sve (see as Methg). o these, 44

espe a 36 ha cmmece pct a saes

the e 2008.

mufcu Piy lci

Sthwest Wpwe uS - AZ

bege WPwe uS - ok

W Te istes Cp. uS - Mn

Eeg Mateace Sevce uS - Sd

AeVmet uS - CA

Aat reewae Eeg uS - or

Eath Tes uS - VT

nthe Pwe uS - VT

Maah Pwe uS - nV

Aetecte iteata, ic. uS - il

Eace W Pwe, ic. uS - uT

Evea Etepses uS - Fl

Maqss W Pwe* uS - CA

Vetea uS - Mn

V Techges, ic. uS - CA

Gee Eeg Techges uS - oH

Wat Eeg Sstems uS - CA

Etec Face

isa uk

Gaa-W uk

Gazee W Tes uk

reewae devces uk

mufcu Piy lci

Pve Eeg, lt. uk

Ampa Mcw uk

FtEeg uk

Ga iste Face/Spa

Wec Spa

Aemax Caaa

Te nth Pwe Sstems Caaa

CeaFe Eeg Caaa

Etegt W Sstems Caaa

Wtea Caaa

rEdve, ic. Caaa

Qatm W Caaa

la Cmpstes, lt. Caaa

W Smpct Caaa

Aecatche Gema

Wmss dema

W Eeg Sts Caaa/netheas

ut ia

keste W Tes Sth Aca

Haev Swee

Aveta, lt. Swtzea

Cs W* isae

respg Maactes

* = n ge pct as 3/2009

= AWEA meme as 3/2009

tb 3: rsps 2009 aWea S-Wi mufcu Suvy

Identifed Mrs:

219 (74 US)

Reporting

Mrs: 44

(17 US)

Have Begun

Sales:

36 (14 US)?


20/24


Methg

A saes ata epte ths st was tae ect mmaactes thgh teephe tevews, e-ma ctact,

th. respses wee cmpae t pevs eas saes as

epte 2007 a 2008 sves.

F ppses estmatg stae capact, ths st

assmes that each te s was as stae a that

the staat cce wth the same caea ea as the

sae. Hweve, epeg the maactes saes cce,

a tes phsca staat ma cc ate the caea

ea whch t s s.

Saes a amts ae ase aveage testae sstem cst, whch ces eqpmet, wg, a

staat. Ths s e t efect the ecmc mpact the

st me cmpete tha eptg the cst the

te a twe, stae. The cst a gve staat

ca va csea gve a me acts (see page

9 the 2008 AWEA Sma W Te Ga Maet St).


21/24


aic Wi ey asscii (aWea)

Sma W Hmepage www.awea.org/smallwind

Ata resces www.awea.org/smallwind/toolbox2/

additional_resources.html

aWea S Wi tubi gb m Suis

2008

2007

2007 data Amemet

2005

u.S. Sma W Te ist ramap .

S Picy Ifi

Pces t Pmte Sma W Tes: A Me State

a lca Gvemets. Ameca W Eeg Asscat

2008. www.awea.org/smallwind/pd/Policies_to_Promote_Small_

Wind_Turbines.pd

dataase State icetves reewaes & Ecec

http://dsireusa.org.

bge, Ewas, Fsth, a Wse. Evaatg State

Maets reseta W Sstems: rests m a

Ecmc a Pc Aass T. Evmeta Eeg

Techges dvs a nata reewae Eeg

laat. deceme 2004. http://eetd.lbl.gov/EA/EMP.

S Pvic Iusy Ifi

Sa bzz www.solarbuzz.com

Sa Eeg istes Asscat (SEiA) www.seia.org

Ameca Sa Eeg Scet (ASES) www.ases.org

Gae base, Caa Petema, a ra Wse. Tacgthe S: The istae Cst Phtvtacs the u.S. m

19982007. http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/emp/reports/lbnl-1516e.pd

u.S Sa ist yea revew 2008. Pmethes isttte

a Sa Eeg istes Asscat. www.seia.org/galleries/

pd/2008_Year_in_Review-small.pd.

Wi rsuc mps

u.S. depatmet Eeg / Eeg Ecec a

reewae Eeg, www.eere.energy.gov/windandhydro/

windpoweringamerica/wind_maps.asp.

u.S. depatmet Eeg / Eeg Ecec a reewae

Eeg / reewae resce data Cete http://rredc.nrel.

gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps.html.

ua W resce Assessmet

Cace, et a. ua W Tes: Gees Sma

W Tes the bt Evmet. iteget Eeg,

Epe. Fea 2007. www.urbanwind.org/pd/SMALL_WIND_

TURBINES_GUIDE_fnal.pd

Ecat. Wawc W Tas Pject. u.k., 2009.

www.warwickwindtrials.org.uk

r Phps, P bacme, J Aes, M Ct, A Ag-ra

a S Peste. Mc-W Tes ua Evmets:

A Assessmet. brE, nv 30, 2007.

www.brebookshop.com/details.jsp?id=287572.

Ct a Ct Sa Facsc W resce

Assessmet Pject. Caa Eeg Cmmss

Pcat nme: 500-04-066 octe 2004.

www.energy.ca.gov/reports/2004-10-13_500-04-066.pd.

ua W resce Assessmet the uk. iT Pwe

iTP/0875, Fea 2007. www.urban-wind.org/pd/Reports_

UrbanWindResourceAssessment_UK.pd.

Zi Pii

i the Pc iteest: Hw a Wh t Pemt Sma

W Sstems, A Ge State a lca Gvemets.Ameca W Eeg Asscat, 2008. www.awea.org/

smallwind/pd/InThePublicInterest.pd

Gee, Jm a Sag, Mc. Zg dstte W

Pwe: beag dw baes. nata reewae Eeg

laat, Ceece Pape nrEl/CP-500-38167. Agst

2005.

bgaph a othe resces


22/24


Ptt, dama. Tag the re Tape t Gee Pwe: Hw

t ovecme Pemttg ostaces t Sma-Scae dstte

reewae Eeg. netw new Eeg Chces, 2008.

www.newenergychoices.org/uploads/redTape-rep.pd .

Ameca W Eeg Asscat

www.awea.org/smallwind/toolbox2/zoning.htm

www.awea.org/smallwind/toolbox2/TOOLS/permitting.htm

n mi gi Icci

Haes, rst a Whtae, Chc. Cectg t the G:

A Ge t dstte Geeat itecect isses.

5th E. itestate reewae Eeg Cc, nth Caa

Sa Cete, 2007. www.irecusa.org/fleadmin/user_upload/

ConnectDocs/IC_Guide.pd

Cpe, Chs et a. Feeg the G: Hw Eectve State net

Meteg laws Ca revtze u.S. Eeg Pc. netw

new Eeg Chces, rept 01-06. nveme 2006. www.

newenergychoices.org/uploads/netMetering.pd.

Feeg the G: 2007 Et. netw new

Eeg Chces, rept 02-07. nveme 2007. http://

newenergychoices.org/uploads/FreeingTheGrid2007_report.pd.

Feeg the G: 2008 Et. netw new Eeg

Chces. octe 2008. www.newenergychoices.org/uploads/

FreeingTheGrid2008_report.pd

Ameca W Eeg Asscat

www.awea.org/aq/netbde.htm

www.awea.org/smallwind/toolbox2/utilities.htm

www.awea.org/smallwind/toolbox2/grid_connecting.htm

m Ifi

Jee l.Ewas, ra Wse, Ma bge, a T

Fsth, Evaatg state maets eseta w

sstems: rests m a ecmc a pc aass t

(deceme 1, 2004). lawece beee nata laat.

Pape lbnl-56344. http://repositories.cdlib.org/lbnl/LBNL-56344.

Fsth, T, a rhas-Weave, Heathe. ovecmg

Techca a Maet baes dstte W

Appcats: reachg the Masteam. nata reewae

Eeg laat a eFmatve opts, llC. CeecePape nrEl/CP-500-39858. J 2006. www.nrel.gov/docs/

y06osti/39858.pd.

The u.S. Sma W Te ist ramap. Ameca

W Eeg Asscat. Je 2002. www.awea.org/smallwind/

documents/31958.pd.

bWEA Sma W Sstems u.k. Maet rept 2008. btsh

W Eeg Asscat www.bwea.com/pd/small/BWEA_

SWS_UK_Market_Report_2008.pd.


23/24


1 (istae/rate/namepate) Capact: The stataes ate eectctgeeat at a gve w spee. Capact s cmm se t cmpaeszes eectct geeats vas tpes, cg w tes. Capactes t cate the amt eectct a te pces ve tme.

kwatt (W): A mease a ate eectct pct ( csmpt). Aw tes sze (ts pct capact) s tpca mease wattsa epesets the ate at whch the te ca pce eectct at a gvew spee.

F me mat sma w te techg, see www.awea.g/smaw.

2 A PPA s ctact etwee a csme a a cmpa that ws apeates a eeg geeat. The PPA estashes a pce a tme pe whch the geeat we/peat w se eectct t the csme. Thsaagemet pves the csme a pectae, asse eectct pce vea extee pe tme; eem m ss a espstes asscatewth eqpmet weshp; a the at t se eewae eeg wthta age p-t capta vestmet. The PPA pves the geeat we/peat pectae cash fw the vestmet a ceta tax avatages.

3 F me mat pemttg, see i the Pc iteest: Hw a Wht Pemt Sma W Sstems. AWEA, 2008. www.awea.g/smaw

4 Jm Gee a Mc Sag. Zg dstte W Pwe: beagdw baes. nata reewae Eeg laat ceece pape nrEl/CP-50038167.

5 Shag up the reseta PV Maet: impcats recet Chages tthe iTC Ma bge, Gae base, a ra Wse. lawece beeenata laat a the Cea Eeg States Aace. nveme 2008.http://eet..gv/ea/EMS/cases/es-tc-ept.p.

6 Specca, the Massachsetts Techg Caatve, Cectct CeaEeg F, Xce Eeg Ca, a the new Jese ba Pcuttes.

7 Eeg imat Amstat

8 See www.smatecetcat.g

9 See www.acep.g/cetcat/te-cetcats/sma-w

10 See Tpc Aea 2C at https://e-cete.e.gv/ps/ap.s/unid/C53C9A2E58F125848525753000066191/$e/FinAl_FoA_PMC113_1-FoA-Gats_Gv_wth_M005.p

11 See www.pgameca.g

12 baa oama a Je be: new Eeg Ameca. Agst 3, 2008.www.aacama.cm/p/actsheet_eeg_speech_080308.p

13 nathaa Gew . Sa st aces heate ga cmpett.Geewe, Fea 20, 2009.

14 Cea Tech St Szzes as Vete ivestmets C Ca Ca Me.new y Tmes, Jaa 26, 2009. http://ts.gs.tmes.cm/2009/01/26/cea-tech-st-szzes-as-vete-vestmets-c/

15 A we-ste 10W te geeates at 1,090 Wh/mth 12mphaveage ws. i the tes expecte etme 20 eas t ca spaceappxmate 340,000 s. Co2. Each watt-h (Wh) eectctpce the uS ests 1.55 s. Co2 emtte t the atmsphee, aveage, efectg the cet uS eectct pct mx. Sce: uS

depatmet Eeg. The uS Evmeta Ptect Agec estmate 2000 that the aveage passege ca emts 11,450 s. Co2 pe ea.

Aveage aa hme eeg se the uS s 10,565 Wh.

16 See the bgaph me mat a/tp staats.The btsh W Eeg Asscat as tacs the me g-mtesma w sstems stae the ute kgm ts aa sma wsstems maet ept. See www.wea.cm/p/sma/

17 See www.awea.g/aq/vawt.htm me mat vetca-axstes VAWTs.bWEA_SWS_uk_Maet_rept_2008.p.

18 Swept aea s the sace aea a te t, A =r2,whee r s the as the t (.e., the egth e ae).

19 F me mat at g tecect, see www.awea.g/smaw/tx2/g_cectg.htm

20 As ee itea revee Ce sects 48 a 25d, espectve.See www.awea.g/egsatve me mat the tax cet a theegsat.

21 See Sa State the Maet Q3 2008: The rc ra t $100 b.lx reseach, octe 2008. www.xeseachc.cm//sa

22 Ecmc impacts Exteg Feea Sa Tax Cets. navgatCstg, Septeme 2008. http://sea.g/gaees/p/navgat%20Cstg%20rept%209.15.08.p

23 uS Sa ist yea revew 2008. Sa Eeg istesAsscat. http://sea.g/gaees/p/2008_yea__revew-sma.p

24 nathaa Gew . Sa st aces heate ga cmpett.Geewe, Fea 20, 2009.

25 See www.me.cm a www.meps.c..

26 ra Wse, Gae base, a Caa Petema. Tacg the S: Theistae Cst Phtvtacs the u.S. m 1998-2007. lawece beeenata laat ept lbnl-1516E, Fea 2009. http://eet..gv/ea/emp/epts/-1516e.p

27 The estmate uS ga maet shae ma e smewhat fate ecase 26 145 ete eg maactes espe t the AWEA maetsve. Hweve, these 26 maactes ae eeve t epeset the the eg maet. Cece maet shae tes ve the past thee eass eatve hgh ecase geea the same set maactes esps tthe AWEA sve.

28 A FiT sma, stte geeat ws smewhat e the evese areewae Eectct Staa that t estashes a set pce at whch a ttpchases eectct m a eewae geeat, sch as a sma w sstem,

a ets maet ces ajst the amt eeg pce (spp) aema accg. ue p-t eates a tax cets, ths pc s ase tpt (cets/Wh) athe tha te sze (W), a theee ewaspemace. A e et meteg, a eectct geeate t jst theexcess s set t the g a awae pamet m the tt at a pceave ega eta eectct ates.

29 See www.w-ws.g/Feelaws/uSA/uSAlst.htm#uSA

Etes


24/24

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09 awea small wind global market study

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