08/12/2015 developing renewable energy cost effectively european commission tom howes european...
TRANSCRIPT
21/04/23
Developing renewable energy cost effectively
EUROPEANCOMMISSION
Tom HowesEuropean Commission
EU renewable energy shares
11,60%
0,70%
2,80% 2,90%4,20% 3,80%
5,10%3,80%
9,50%
7,80%8,50%
9,40%7,90%
10,00% 9,70%
11,50%13,00% 12,40%
17,50% 16,90%
19,70%
22,70%21,60%
25,70%
29,20%
36,80%
29,80%
50,20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
EU MT LU UK NL BE IE CY HU IT CZ PO GR SK DE BG ES FR SI LT DK EE RO PT AT LV FI SW
2005 2009 (provisional) 2020 target
Progress to date…
Eurostat
Technology Results from the National Renewable Energy Action Plans
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Heat pumps
Biomass
Wind
Tide, wave, ocean
Solar
Geothermal
Hydro
ktoe
Technology breakdown - electricity
Cost estimations
• Total investments in renewables are currently at a level of approximately € 35 bn/y
• Most analysis predict this has to double to reach our 2020 targets
• Unit cost of renewables, contrary to other forms of energy, are declining; for certain technologies sharply
• PV module costs around €500/kW
• Producing (and generating) renewables where most cost-efficient offers significant potential for lowering overall cost
Merit order effect
• Denmark 2005: saving of 0.3 to 0.5 €cents per kWh consumed. • Spain 2005: a reduction of about 0.5 €cents/kWh at peak hour for each
additional GWh • Germany 2006: €5bn electricity price saving + CO2 exp. = cost of EEG
• Ireland 2011: neutral impact • EWEA EU 2020 estimate (265GW wind): €41.7bn/year savings (gross)
Market price
RES-support
TGC revenues
FIT FIPs Quota
stability of revenues and their composition (TGC=tradable green certificate)
Quota
Gov fixes quantity, market decides price
Obligation for suppliers:
Minimum RES-E share
Increasing over time
Penalty
Tradable certificates for RES-E production (‘market’ price)
Obligation is met by submission of certificates to competent authority
Power sold on conventional markets
Fixed feed-in tariff (FIT)
Gov fixes price, market decides quantity
Fixed tariff (€/MWh)
Guaranteed during lifetime or x years
Purchase obligation
(Grid (access & use) priority)
Feed-in premium (FIP) Fixed premium (€/MWh)
Guaranteed during lifetime or x years
Power sold on conventional markets
Feed in tariffs, Feed in Premiums & Quotas
Source: RE Shaping project
Points for reflection on support schemes (electricity)
Provide policy stability (for FIT / FIP / Quota): Retroactive / sudden changes should be avoided. Move away from annual budgeting (creates stop and go)
Reduce revenue risk: Long term contracts are most relevant (15-25 years) Priority dispatch/curtailment compensation
Apply automatic degression formulae for tariffs and premiums. New tariffs (or premiums) fall according to learning curve of technology. Other reductions in FIT/FIP require well planned, public tariff adjustment
cycles or mechanisms (e.g. DE tariff falls if capacity grows by more than 3.5 GW...)
Small scale development is a different market: Many quota countries offer separate incentives: BE minimum prices for PV,
IT FIP for PV, UK FIT for small-scale applications. Technology-banding within the quota as applied in UK can help to support cost-intensive technologies like wind offshore, but is less suitable for small-scale projects.
The other elements of European energy policy:
. EU policies working in tandem to provide a stable long term framework:
» The creation of competition and the single market in energy
» The development of European infrastructure (@1c/kWh)
» Europe's R&D programme for new technologies
» Energy Efficiency proposal to reduce consumption and transform the market
» 2050 – decarbonisation… 2030 milestones?...
. Impact of costs is clearly important:
» Explore net impact (merit order effect)
» Recall the whole 2008 energy and climate package price estimate was “up to 10%”
» Operating costs of non renewable energy rising (again)
» 2050 energy scenarios explore cost consequences of decarbonisation
» RES costs driven by capital costs, driven by risk, driven partly by regulatory framework
2020/2050 Key Challenges2020/2050 Key Challenges» Increasing importance of RES increases
requirements on:
• Capacity and flexibility of electricity grids, of power plants, of energy storage of demand side management (~smart)
» Energy Roadmap 2050 – due December
» Renewable energy Communication on “post 2020” - due 2012• (public consultation imminent)
» Update on state of internal market - due 2012
Thank you for your attention
http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/index_en.htm