078 17 ccc april 2017 08 transforming forensics business case march 2017
TRANSCRIPT
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Outline Business Case 31st March 2017
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Page 3
Executive Summary
Page 4
Strategic Case
Introduction
Page 7
Present Position
Page 8
Options for
transformation
Page 12
Evaluating the options
Page 14
Realising the benefits
Page 16
Economic Case Introduction
Page 19
Option Definition
Page 17
Quantitative
Assessment
Page 36
Quantitative
Assessment
Page 59
Commercial
Considerations
Page 62
Summary
Page 65
Financial Case Introduction
Page 66
Summary
Page 70
Commercial Case Introduction
Page 71
Strategic Context
Page 72
Business & Service
Requirements
Page 74
Category Management
Page 79
Management Case Introduction
Page 83
Delivering Option 5
Page 86
Appendix Appendix A –
Strategic Case
Page 93
Appendix B –
Economic Case
Page 93
Appendix C –
Financial Case
Page 110
Appendix D –
Commercial Case
Page 111
Appendix E –
Management Case
Page 124
Acronyms
Page 128
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INTRODUCTION
The Transforming Forensics project has been
charged by the NPCC Forensics Portfolio Board
with “investigating the possible transformation of
the delivery of forensic services using an
evidence-based approach, by developing options
and making recommendations that lead to a more
effective, efficient and economic model, thereby
delivering enhanced public safety and public
confidence”.
The scope of the Transforming Forensics project
was agreed from an early stage to include
physical and digital forensics, but to exclude
digital investigations and intelligence, and
communications intelligence.
The purpose of this Outline Business Case is to
help identify a preferred option for transforming
forensic service provision for police forces in
England and Wales, PSNI, BTP and NCA. It sets
out the rationale and goals for transformational
change, explains the options available, and sets
out a structured quantitative and qualitative
evaluation, leading to the identification of a
preferred option. The financial case supporting
the preferred option is then outlined, together with
an analysis of the commercial considerations that
will need to be resolved. Finally, the business
case describes how the preferred option can be
progressed.
The conclusions reached in the business case are
supported by comprehensive data collection and
analysis work covering forensic service provision
in 23 forces.
It is important to note that the Outline Business
Case is intended as the basis for making a
decision. It is not a blueprint for the future service,
and further appraisal of the selected option should
be carried out in the subsequent Full Business
Case.
Also, the level of transformational change
involved varies between options. Transformational
change is expected to be an essential attribute in
order to access financial support from the Police
Reform and Transformation Fund (PRTF), and will
therefore affect the overall affordability of each
option.
The OBC has been authored in accordance with
the HM Treasury Green Book guidance1 and
guidance on Public Sector Business Cases using
the Five Case Model2.
1https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/
uploads/attachment_data/file/220541/green_book_complete.pdf 2https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/
uploads/attachment_data/file/469317/green_book_guidance_public_sector_business_cases_2015_update.pdf
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This business case proposes the delivery of a
fully integrated forensic service that will better
support policing and the wider Criminal Justice
System (CJS), and adapt more readily to future
needs whilst releasing resources for re-
investment.
THE NEED FOR CHANGE
Patterns of crime are changing. Reductions in
some crime types are being offset by new types of
crime and crimes committed in new ways,
especially with the increasing prevalence of digital
technologies. Some crimes, such as fraud and
child sexual exploitation, increasingly occur
across multiple force borders, further complicating
the traditional forensic picture. As a result, while
the use of traditional forensics is declining,
demand for digital forensic support continues to
grow exponentially.
Meeting forensic needs is therefore difficult and
will grow more so. Many forces already
collaborate to improve services and realise
savings, and most are also pursuing programmes
to develop and deploy improved digital forensics
capabilities. Although collaborative approaches
deliver substantial benefits, they cannot address
all new demands and still deliver the cost savings
that forces need to achieve.
The challenge facing Chief Officers and Police
and Crime Commissioners (PCCs) is how to
reform forensic service delivery in a way that
significantly enhances the support provided to
individual forces while establishing a strong
platform to meet future needs and also freeing
resources. This echoes the challenge posed to
PCCs by the Home Secretary in May 2016.
The resulting vision set by the NPCC for forensic
services is therefore to deliver high quality,
specialist forensic capabilities that support the
2025 policing vision to rapidly protect
communities and the vulnerable, and which are
sustainable to meet future threats and demand.
Forensic service delivery cannot meet this goal by
continuing on its current trajectory. Instead, there
is a need for transformational change.
SERVICE TRANSFORMATION
The project team has explored options for future
forensic service delivery. These range from
making the minimum changes necessitated by the
updated biometric matching systems currently
being developed, to comprehensive service
transformation involving new ways of working and
the consolidation of capabilities to deliver a fully
integrated service to forces.
The analysis completed for this business case
has determined that the consolidation of forensic
activities to establish a unified service supporting
local delivery represents the most compelling
option.
This recommendation has been developed
through detailed service modelling and
cost/benefit evaluation, completed with input from
forensic leaders in policing and specialist support
from the Home Office. This conclusion is
supported by qualitative assessments completed
by forensic leaders across policing, and by
independent analysis of the financial and
commercial implications of each option.
The recommended future model will build on
current strengths in delivering high quality forensic
services to establish a single, national, unified
service for the direction and delivery of forensic
Executive Summary
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activities. This will simplify governance
arrangements and introduce aggregated
capabilities operating in a consistent way to
appropriate quality standards. Overall direction,
market engagement and ways of working will be
set at national level, with aggregated ‘back-end’
processing activities supported by a common
logistics network. By managing and delivering
services at appropriate levels, from national to
local, the service will provide local flexibility and
responsiveness. The envisaged forensic service
would also have influence across the whole
forensic supply chain, including locally-based
scene investigation services, and would influence
research and development as well as the
commercial and partnership approaches taken to
procure service and supplies. The scope of the
proposed forensic service would include all
physical and digital forensics, but exclude digital
investigations and intelligence, and
communications intelligence.
A comprehensive data collection and analysis
programme underpins this conclusion. Detailed
information on forensic services’ performance and
costs has been obtained relating to twenty three
forces. This data set has been described as
representing the most thorough, robust and
insightful analysis of forensic delivery costs and
efficiencies undertaken to date, and provides a
solid foundation for the business case’s
conclusions.
The data obtained indicates that forces in
England, Wales and Northern Ireland (including
British Transport Police (BTP) and the National
Crime Agency (NCA)) currently spend of the order
of £370M annually on forensic services. It has
been conservatively estimated that there is scope
to reduce this to an annual spend of £212M in ten
years time.
…consolidation of forensic activities to
establish a unified service supporting local
delivery represents the most compelling
option.
BENEFITS TO POLICING
Service transformation offers the prospect to build
on existing strengths and exploit new
opportunities to create a forensic capability that
will meet the future needs of police and other
stakeholders in an effective, efficient and
sustainable way. It will do this by:
Delivering better outcomes – Transformation
will identify and embed best practice, deliver
consistent outcomes, and adopt and deliver
the highest standards, thereby providing
support to the safeguarding and public
protection mission of policing and the wider
CJS.
Building capability for the future –
Transformation will lead to more resilient,
sustainable, flexible, coherently organised
services capable of adapting to local, regional
and national challenges, and new and
emerging threats.
Supporting re-investment in priority areas –
Transformation will enable the delivery of more
efficient services, reduce accreditation costs
and optimise procurement opportunities to
release resources for reinvestment in other
policing priorities.
Enabling wider reform – Within the context of
the wider police reform programme, forensic
transformation represents one of the first
tangible steps towards planned wider police
transformation. Although it is not without its
challenges, as a first step it is arguably
relatively straightforward, and can pave the
way to the more profound reforms that the
NPCC and APCC are currently exploring.
The proposed solution aligns with and supports
other strategic initiatives, including the Home
Office Biometrics (HOB) programme, the Digital
Policing Portfolio and the National Law
Enforcement Data (NLED) programme.
In her annual report published in January 2017,
the Forensic Science Regulator stated “the quality
management systems employed are reaching
their capacity limits. It is clear that the single
biggest challenge … is financial: the costs
associated with complying with and being
assessed against the standards”. The proposed
unified approach to quality standards and
accreditation, together with a common input to
legislative developments, will help address this
concern by reducing costs and improving the
fitness for purpose of future policy impacting
forensics and biometrics.
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The recommended solution will also allow policing
as a whole to more effectively steer and support
research and development in forensic
technologies, and help sustain a healthy and
effective forensic supplier marketplace – both of
which were set as objectives by the House of
Commons Science and Technology Committee in
late 2016.
RECOGNISING STAKEHOLDERS’ CONCERNS
Although the case for transforming forensic
services is compelling, it is recognised that some
PCCs, Chief Officers and members of the forensic
science community, as well as other stakeholders,
will have legitimate concerns over the potential
changes proposed.
Some have expressed concern that there will be
winners and losers in terms of service levels
received and responsiveness to local needs, with
larger, metropolitan forces potentially dominating
service planning and delivery. Initial service
design work and an understanding of how other
organisations approach this question suggest
that, in practice, improvements in services both at
a local level and a national level can be delivered.
Also, the scale of business and technology
change required to implement the recommended
solution may appear daunting and, at least
initially, to involve significant risks. In addition,
existing contractual commitments may constrain
forces’ ability to migrate to a new operating model
and technology base. Drawing on business
change experience in policing and more widely,
the recommended solution has been designed so
that it can be implemented progressively. It will
build on proven solutions, via Proof of Concept
(PoC) projects, and offer opportunities for
continuing refinement as the programme
progresses, in order to sustain a clear focus on
both achieving the end goals and continuing to
deliver high quality forensic services during the
transformation.
These are valid concerns at this time and will be
addressed in the Full Business Case.
Conservative cost/benefit modelling confirms that
it will not be essential for all forces to commit to
participating in the new service model. The Full
Business Case for the programme will confirm the
critical level of participation needed for success. It
is anticipated, however, that forces choosing to
participate from the commencement of the
change programme will benefit from
transformation funding to support the necessary
business and technology changes.
It should be noted that this is not a reinvention of
the Forensic Science Service (FSS); the proposed
solution differs in purpose and scope. The police
service has done much to establish itself as an
intelligent customer of forensic science services,
which has served to drive down cost and improve
quality. Building on previous work, the proposed
service will develop further the commercial
marketplace and build stronger, closer and more
strategic long term relationships with private
sector suppliers, industry and academia, ensuring
the provision of the high quality forensic services
needed by modern policing and helping re-
establish the UK as a world-leader in forensic
sciences.
COMMITTING TO CHANGE
The potential benefits of Transforming Forensics
are substantial. Realisation of this vision will
require leadership, commitment and a willingness
to tackle large and complex questions about the
future shape of forensic and biometric services.
The prospect of transforming police forensic
services as proposed is unprecedented, and has
been described by one Chief Constable as a
‘once in a lifetime’ opportunity. The NPCC and
APCC are therefore asked to review and approve
the conclusions reached in this Outline Business
Case, and to support progression to a Full
Business Case with a view to the development of
a bid to the PRTF in support of full
implementation.
Realisation of this vision will require
leadership, commitment and a willingness to
tackle large and complex questions about the
future shape of forensic and biometric
services.
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INTRODUCTION
This Strategic Case sets out the rationale for
transforming how forensic services are organised,
procured and delivered to support police forces, in
England, Wales and Northern Ireland (including
NCA and BTP), and other users of forensic
services. Its scope includes physical and digital
forensics, but excludes digital investigations and
intelligence, and communications intelligence.
Although crime patterns are changing and
creating new demands on forces, there are also
opportunities to adopt improved technologies and
modernise ways of working. These can help
forces achieve an enhanced intelligence picture;
deliver improved value for money; support better,
speedier justice; and respond effectively to
changing future needs.
The “prize” is significant: faster local response
times to crimes and the opportunity for the earlier
apprehension of those committing both volume
and serious crime will result in better services for
victims and the vulnerable, which will ultimately
increase confidence in local policing.
Embracing transformational change will also help
secure financial support, through the PRTF.
Furthermore, savings realised through the
programme will enable Chief Constables and
Police and Crime Commissioners to redirect
resources towards other force priorities.
The scale of the challenge should not be
underestimated. While many forces have made
significant advances, acting either alone or in
collaboration, the required scale and scope of
forensic service transformation involves more
fundamental change than can be delivered
through collaborations and local initiatives.
This Strategic Case highlights the drivers for
change, outlines the nature of the
transformational change that is needed,
references the views of senior stakeholders in
policing, and explains how alternative future
models have been developed for assessment,
leading to recommendations for the future shape
of forensic services.
Police forces thus face a number of
challenges which together mean that the
current model of forensic service delivery will
not be capable of supporting the future
mission of policing.
Strategic Case
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PRESENT POSITION
Forensic services are a major tool in police forces’
work to combat crime and meet the expectations
of local communities.
Police forces in England and Wales are
individually responsible for the procurement and
delivery of the forensic services they require. In
most cases, this is achieved through a mixed
economy of in-force capabilities and the use of
private sector Forensic Service Providers (FSPs).
The latter provide a wide range of services, from
higher volume ‘routine’ services, such as DNA
profiling, to more specialist lower-volume
services, such as ballistics examination. Forces
also access a range of national services, such as
the IDENT1 fingerprint services and the National
DNA Database.
In recent years, several forces have agreed to
pool their forensic service procurement and
delivery capabilities, and the majority now
collaborate to varying degrees in groups of
between two and seven forces to deliver forensic
services. These collaborations have been able
deliver forensic services at a greater scale, with
shared resources and capabilities, leading to
reduced costs through increased purchasing
power and resource sharing. Significantly,
collaboration has also allowed participating forces
to exploit some newly emergent or more specialist
forensic technologies and ways of working on a
local basis. This has typically encompassed both
physical and digital forensics, together with crime
scene work in many areas.
Forces use a variety of case management
systems to support their investigations and
forensic analysis tracking. Collaborations are
typically migrating to single case management
solutions, although the range of solutions
currently used and the need for compatibility with
individual forces’ core crime and property systems
mean that moving to a common solution remains
difficult. Significantly, given the need to meet
current demand trends, there is not yet an agreed
common solution to support digital forensic case
management.
Forensic services are subject to regulatory
oversight, with the government-appointed
Forensic Science Regulator (FSR) and the
Biometrics Commissioner playing significant roles
in ensuring legal compliance and fitness-for-
purpose. Linked to this, forensic service delivery
is subject to rigorous quality assurance, with
forces devoting significant and increasing
resources to meeting accreditation requirements
for both physical and digital forensics.
The financial cost of forensic activity is
considerable. Based on available information,
latest estimates compiled to support this Outline
Business Case suggest that the total cost of
forensic services in England, Wales and Northern
Ireland (including BTP and the NCA) is of the
order £370M per annum.
FORENSICS
2015/16
480,819£280MILLION
£53MILLION
415,300
£80
DIGITAL FORENSICS
CRIME
SCENES
ATTENDED
SPENT ON
TRADITIONAL
FORENSICS
MILLION
SPENT ON FORENSIC
SERVICE PROVIDERS
£8.5MILLION ON R&D
FINGERPRINTS
FROM SCENES
Figure 1: Current forensic spending
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This is a conservative estimate: the annual figure
includes core forensics staff and services, but
excludes non-recharged resources such as IT
hardware and, in many cases, premises. Within
the total figure, approximately £80M is accounted
for by spending on external forensic services. The
basis for these estimates is provided in our cost
model. The growth is expanding considerably with
the increase in digital criminal activity and
developing technology which is conservatively
estimated at approximately 29% year on year.
DRIVERS FOR CHANGE
There is growing recognition across policing that
current ways of working and advancing forensic
services will struggle to meet future needs in an
affordable and effective manner. Several factors
are driving this:
Force priorities and public expectations
continue to evolve. Recently published PCC
and force plans stress the need to protect the
vulnerable and support victims of crime, and
the Policing Vision 2025 plan highlighted the
need for transformation and better use of
resources to “provide an effective, accessible
and value for money service that can be
trusted.” Evolving public expectations together
with greater local accountability mean that
forces need to address these challenges
effectively, which will frequently demand new
forensic capabilities.
Demand for forensic services is changing.
Acquisitive crime has declined, but this has
been offset by a significant rise in digitally
enabled crime, often carried out on a cross-
boundary or international basis. Concurrently,
there is now also a digital element to more
traditional crime. The net effect is that, while
demand for ‘traditional’ forensics is projected
to decline, this trend will be partly offset by
rising demand in ‘new’ areas. Analysis by the
Home Office predicts a decline of around 9%
in total submission volumes from 2015/16 to
2019/20; this comprises two opposing trends –
a decrease of 16% in traditional forensics
volumes and an increase of 116% in the
number of digital devices examined.
Digital forensic technologies and their
deployment continue to evolve rapidly. This is
essential in order to respond to advances
made by perpetrators of digital and digitally-
enabled crimes, including the adoption of new
technologies. These include high priority
threats, such as Child Sexual Exploitation
(CSE), organised immigration crime and fraud,
which collectively target the most vulnerable in
society. To date, several forces have made
significant advances in this area, including the
development of technologies and structured
forensic evaluation processes. This has
frequently been achieved through the re-
allocation of underspends from other activities,
but the pace of change means that, for most
forces, it will be difficult and costly to remain
close to the forefront of developments.
Current biometric matching capabilities are
scheduled to be updated. The HOB
programme will deliver improved fingerprint
matching, automated DNA matching and
potentially new facial recognition capabilities
over the next 3-4 years. These will require new
business processes to be implemented in
forces’ forensic units in order to be able to
exploit these new capabilities.
Forensic services need to be readily adaptable
to meet future needs, but the current delivery
model remains fragmented and cannot readily
support wider policing reform or cross-
boundary working. In specialist capabilities, for
example, the concepts of ‘networked policing’
and establishment of national specialist
capabilities are currently being considered,
which will require a more integrated and
flexible delivery model than is currently in
place.
Current arrangements do not optimise the
efficient use of high cost resources. Forces
and collaborations purchase equipment and
services principally for their own use, which
means that high cost equipment and premises
will often not be used to their full capacity.
Although some forces do share across
boundaries, there are no nationally agreed
mechanisms for this or for planning and
managing the utilisation of such capabilities.
Forensic service providers and equipment
manufacturers are continuing to develop
promising new forensic technologies, but the
market for these remains fragmented and
therefore may be unattractive to some
potential entrants. Some of these technologies
offer possibilities for more rapid at-scene
processing of traditional forensic samples so
that, if integrated with local force systems and
ways of working, there is the potential to
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dramatically reduce the time taken to get
results from forensics samples. Several forces
are currently evaluating such technologies, but
successful adoption will require larger scale
coordination and funding.
The current delivery model does not easily
support the coordinated planning and delivery
of research and development of new forensic
technologies and ways of working. While many
forces have commissioned and delivered high
quality research and development work, there
is no integrated plan for this. This risks
overlaps and gaps between programmes, the
slower dissemination of best practice and the
adoption of differing solutions by individual
forces.
The Government’s Forensic Science Strategy,
published in 2016, highlighted the importance
of maintaining a healthy forensic services
market. Varying procurement and partnership
models are in place, but do not explicitly
address this need, and there remains a strong
need to coordinate management of the
marketplace as a whole. This will become
increasingly important as forces adopt new
technologies and ways of working, such as the
use of rapid at-scene forensics, which have the
potential to disrupt the current scene-
submissions-laboratory delivery model.
Present arrangements for managing
accreditation and regulatory compliance in
forensics and biometrics are fragmented and
costly. There is a need, and also an
opportunity, to rationalise how accreditation
and compliance are managed, particularly as
new technologies become available and are
adopted by forces.
Resource pressures on forces will remain
intense. To mitigate this, forces will need to
deliver more/better services at reduced cost in
areas such as forensics, in order to allow
investment in priority areas that are crucial to
achieving future success and meeting
stakeholders’ expectations.
Police forces thus face a number of challenges
which together mean that the current model of
forensic service delivery will not be capable of
supporting the future mission of policing.
THE CASE FOR TRANSFORMATION
The vision for forensic service delivery is to
deliver high quality, specialist forensic capabilities
that support the Policing Vision 2025 goals, to
rapidly protect communities and the vulnerable,
which are sustainable to meet future threats and
demand.
To meet this challenge, more radical change will
be needed than has been possible to date.
All forces make continuous improvements, and
many collaborate to realise benefits that would not
be achievable at individual force level. Most are
also pursuing programmes to enhance their digital
forensics capability.
Although these approaches are already delivering
substantial improvements, they cannot be
expected to continue to address the full scale of
new challenges and simultaneously realise the
scale of cost savings sufficiently quickly that
forces will need to make in order to address
emerging demands and meet public expectations.
Instead, there is a need for transformational
change of greater breadth, depth and speed than
continuous improvement and local collaborations
can deliver.
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Although these approaches are already delivering
substantial improvements, they cannot be
expected to continue to address the full scale of
new challenges and simultaneously realise the
scale of cost savings sufficiently quickly that
forces will need to make in order to address
emerging demands and meet public expectations.
Instead, there is a need for transformational
change of greater breadth, depth and speed than
continuous improvement and local collaborations
can deliver.
INVESTMENT OBJECTIVES
Service transformation offers the prospect to build
on existing strengths and exploit new
opportunities to create a forensic capability that
will meet the future needs of police and other
stakeholders in an effective, efficient and
sustainable way.
It will do this by:
Delivering better outcomes – Transformation
will identify and embed best practice, deliver
consistent outcomes, and adopt and deliver
the highest standards, thereby providing
support to the safeguarding and public
protection mission of policing and the wider
Criminal Justice System.
Building capability for the future –
Transformation will lead to more resilient,
sustainable, flexible and coherently organised
services capable of adapting to local, regional
and national challenges, and new and
emerging threats.
Supporting re-investment in priority areas –
Transformation will enable the delivery of more
efficient services, reduce accreditation costs
and optimise procurement opportunities to
release resources for reinvestment in other
policing priorities.
Enabling wider reform – Within the context of
the wider police reform programme, forensic
transformation represents one of the first
tangible steps towards planned wider police
transformation. Although it is not without its
challenges, as a first step it is arguably
relatively straightforward, and can pave the
way to the more profound reforms that the
NPCC and APCC are currently exploring.
Subsequent sections of this Outline Business
Case present an analysis of options for future
forensic delivery, embodying differing degrees of
transformational change to achieve these
objectives.
Minor Major
Aware DrivingRole of
senior leaders
Scale of
benefits
Gra
du
al
Rap
idSp
ee
d
of
ch
an
ge
Incre
men
tal
Pro
fou
nd
Sco
pe
of
ch
an
ge
Collaboration
Continuous
improvement
Transformation
Figure 2: Transformation versus current position
Only transformation can
deliver the required scale
and speed of improvement
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OPTIONS FOR TRANSFORMATION
Guided by senior stakeholders and working
closely with members of the forensic science
community, the project team has created a set of
potential future service models for evaluation.
Embodying varying degrees of service
transformation, each has been has been iterated
repeatedly within an expert group of senior
practitioners and reviewed with stakeholders to
reach the current set of options.
In parallel with this business design activity, an
assessment of the current police IT landscape
has allowed the project team to identify the
technology architectures that could support each
future service model. The project team has also
worked with the HOB programme team to
understand which elements of the future solution
may be delivered by HOB and the expected dates
for these.
To facilitate comparison between options and
ensure the robustness of the Outline Business
Case analysis, each option has been built around
a specific ‘theme’ that has guided its design.
Within this framework, each option has been
developed to deliver maximum benefits and to
allow a realistic implementation path to be
developed. These then form the basis for the
assessments set out in the Economic Case.
DEVELOPING THE OPTIONS
Guided by these principles, the project team
adopted the following approach to develop five
options for consideration:
Confirmation of business case scope – the
scope of the business case was agreed from
an early stage to include traditional and digital
forensics, but to exclude digital investigations
and intelligence, and communications
intelligence.
Expert involvement – an early decision was
made to use an ‘expert group’ drawn from
policing supported by external business design
specialists funded by the Home Office. This
has brought together deep expertise and
experience in forensic services delivery and
skills in business service analysis modelling to
build and test realistic future delivery models.
Examination of the current and projected IT
landscape – discussions with forces and IT
service providers, including government IT
programmes, have provided an understanding
of the current environment, plans for
development and the scope for future change.
Consideration of current and projected
capabilities and needs – the elements
considered have included fast at-scene
technologies; national strategy, standards,
accreditation; central management and
delivery of laboratory capabilities.
Business design optimisation – a holistic
picture has been constructed for each option
that fits together and exploits to the maximum
the gains offered by process, organisation and
technology changes, both individually and
acting together, to deliver maximum gains for
police, the public and stakeholders.
RECOGNISING SENIOR STAKEHOLDERS’ PERSPECTIVES
Although there is a case for better coordinating
and delivering forensic services, and this Outline
Business Case explores options based on this
premise, it is also recognised that PCCs, Chief
Officers and Scientific Support Managers, as well
as other stakeholders, have legitimate concerns
over some impacts of the potential changes.
In mid-2016, a short survey of PCCs and Chief
Officers was undertaken to elicit their views on the
potential for forensic service transformation. This
was a limited survey, aimed at surfacing broad
concerns, as an input to early service design
work. Stakeholders nevertheless welcomed the
opportunity to share their views, which are
paraphrased below:
“Cost saving is the burning platform and we need to do whatever it takes to deliver an affordable, sustainable
and quality service. The shape of policing has to change and transforming forensics is just part of that bigger
picture”
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“This is the best way to equip our officers with the tools they need to work in the world today. Data sharing
and more cross-agency and international working just have to be at the heart of how we work in the future –
we can’t let history constrain us”
“No services ‘have’ to remain at local level – but this is a philosophical issue for some. People just need to
get on the train. We might have to take small steps to bring people on the journey”
“This has to be a police-owned service in order to work, and a national model is a step too far – a small
number of multi-force or regional services will deliver just as much benefit, and means we don’t commit
everything to a single model”
“Bigger isn’t necessarily better, and we can’t start with restructuring as the goal. Will support where there’s a
clear benefit to be gained, but won’t put current service at risk without this. National service must explain
how leadership and culture will work – these are what drive quality”
“We just need to do this – we can’t be held back by how things are today, and we need to be ambitious in
our outlook. Failure would be not tackling the national issue and deferring it to a future generation or until a
tragedy forces our hand”
These senior stakeholders clearly held a variety of
starting positions at that time. Although the
options for transformation have evolved since
then, the sentiments expressed have been
reflected in the options design and evaluation
process.
THE FIVE OPTIONS
The project team has explored options for future
forensic service delivery. These range from
making the minimum changes necessitated by the
updated biometric matching systems currently
being developed, to comprehensive service
transformation involving new ways of working and
the consolidation of capabilities to deliver a unified
service to forces.
The Five Options
1 Maintain
service
continuity
Undertake the minimum changes necessitated by updated HOB functionality
Essentially the do nothing option. Forces will be expected to make some changes to
accept the deliverables within the HOB programme and therefore will receive some
benefits such as those associated with improved matching capabilities within the
fingerprint system.
This option forms the baseline against which the other options are assessed in the
Economic Case.
2 Utilise
enablers
Introduce a centrally-enabled business change function to maximise the
benefits obtained from updated HOB functionality
This would work with forces to standardise practice in the utilisation of the HOB
products and light touch coordination to support portfolio work associated with
research and development, quality standards and commercial strategy.
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3 Maximise
national
infrastructure
Implement a centrally-enabled and delivered infrastructure supporting individual
forces or collaborations
This would include a centrally coordinated quality management function, some
technology improvements that would begin to streamline access to forensic systems
(i.e. web enabled portal) and aggregated procurement of front-line tools (e.g. rapid
forensics, digital kiosks).
4 Aggregate
service
delivery
Aggregate back end services to ‘super-regional hubs’
These would deliver those specialised, repeatable, high throughput forensic services
to an industrialised and appropriate quality standard.
This option would begin to impact on demand driven capabilities such as digital
forensics and mitigate risks associated with resilience in more complex capabilities
that are difficult and expensive to maintain at force and collaboration levels.
Governance and control would be retained at force / collaboration / super-regional
levels.
5 Full
integration
Establish a unified and fully integrated end-to-end forensic service that delivers
to local, regional and national (and international) requirements
This option would simplify governance arrangements and introduce aggregated
capabilities in a consistent way to the appropriate quality standards. It would also
maximise the use of technologies, including at-scene forensic tools, to ensure that the
service can rapidly flex to local requirements. The proposed forensic service would
include all physical and digital forensic activities, but exclude digital investigations and
intelligence, and communications intelligence.
This option would exert influence over the whole forensic supply chain, including
locally-based scene investigation services and would steer the direction of research
and development, as well as the commercial and partnership approaches to
‘procurement’ of service and supplies.
NB: Although there are some common elements across the options, each option is self-contained, and they
should not be seen as sequential stages on a common implementation path.
Figure 3: The five options
EVALUATING THE OPTIONS
INTERPRETING THE OPTIONS
Analysis of how different service components help
achieve the project’s transformation goals shows
that, within each option, no single component is
pre-eminent. Instead, it is the combined effect of
the design components acting together that will
allow transformation of police forensics and
provide a platform for future services. Individual
elements, such as at-scene forensic technologies,
interactive support, and common standards and
accreditation contribute specific benefits, and are
therefore worthwhile developments in their own
right, but the overall benefits realised are
significantly increased when individual initiatives
complement each other in delivering a
transformed end-to-end service. This affects
significantly the benefit profiles of the more
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comprehensive options, as it is these that embody
greatest synergies.
It also has implications for the optimum sequence
in which to implement the various process,
organisation and technology changes that
together will deliver the service. Transition
planning will therefore need to take account of the
benefits, interdependencies and costs of the
various initiatives: this is reflected in the outline
transition plans developed for each option.
In order to facilitate the evaluation process, it has
been assumed for design and estimating
purposes that all forces will participate in the
recommended option. Recognising that this may
not be the case in practice, potential variations
from this are handled through sensitivity analysis
in the Economic Case. This supports identification
of the ‘critical mass’ that will sustain a viable
business case for each option.
In order to maximise benefits and avoid
fragmentation of the service, each option
assumes that forces will not be permitted to ‘pick
and mix’ from the range of services provided
within the recommended option. Each forensic
service model has been designed as an
integrated whole, and the Outline Business Case
analyses are predicated on the complete scope of
an individual option being implemented.
INFORMATION GATHERING AND ANALYSIS
Comprehensive data collection, analysis and cost
modelling have enabled development of a robust
understanding of the current position, and
underpin the objective economic assessment of
each option. This has included:
Structured data collection over 9 months from
13 forensic science units through quantitative
and qualitative questionnaires and visits to
forces. This has been used to build a detailed
picture of forensic services’ performance and
costs relating to 23 individual forces in England
and Wales, PSNI, BTP and the NCA.
The use of National Data Sources, including:
ADR
HMIC
CIPFA
Home Office
FMIT
Modelling of the potential efficiency gains and
performance benefits of each option. This has
included sensitivity analyses to support
assessment how different adoption levels by
individual forces potentially impact the costs
and benefits of each option.
Financial assessment of the net present value
of each option, taking account of not only the
benefits and costs involved, but also the
business change cost of implementing
individual options.
This work has been described as representing the
most thorough, robust and insightful analysis of
forensic delivery costs and efficiencies
undertaken to date. As a consequence, it provides
a comprehensive and testable foundation that
supports the business case’s conclusions.
STRATEGIC FIT
In addition to delivering economic benefits, it will
be essential that forensic service provision aligns
with and supports the vision of future policing. The
report Policing Vision 2025, published by NPCC
and APCC, describes how specialist capabilities,
digital policing and clear accountability will
support a local policing model tailored to society’s
needs. This will involve close collaboration
between all elements of policing and its partners,
and require support of high quality, modern,
effective and affordable forensic services.
Each of the options for future forensic service
delivery has therefore been assessed in terms of
Visited
Figure 4: Forces part of data collection visits
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how well it fits with and supports this future vision,
in addition to a quantitative evaluation of its
economic impact.
DETAILED EVALUATION OF OPTIONS
The five options are described in greater detail in
the Economic Case section of the Outline
Business Case, which presents an evaluation of
the potential qualitative and quantitative impacts
of each.
REALISING THE BENEFITS
While there is a strong case for transformational
change, commitment and strong leadership will
nevertheless be needed in order to overcome the
challenges involved and realise the benefits
potentially available.
IMPLEMENTATION PLANNING
It is important to recognise that the individual
options do not represent sequential points on a
common implementation path. At a high level,
some may include elements of others, but details
differ. Each therefore has a unique
implementation path, which reflects benefits
realisation priorities and delivery
interdependencies.
While Options 4 and 5 may appear complex and
challenging to implement, Options 1, 2 and 3 also
have significant implementation requirements,
driven at least in part by the greater number of
bureaux and forces across which change will
need to be delivered in order to accommodate
planned updates to existing biometric systems.
Also, the more complex options need not be
implemented as a ‘big bang’ but can be achieved
through progressive change.
The key goal at this stage is to agree the
ambition: this will then shape planned activities
and interim organisational structures, ways of
working and technology architectures. As part of
this, forces will have an opportunity to re-shape
wider internal processes and structures in order to
realise the benefits enabled by forensic
transformation, many of which will be in front-line
policing and the CJS.
Implementation planning for the preferred option
will also need to take account of the following
potential constraints on business change:
Notwithstanding breaks of convenience,
novation and convergence, existing contractual
commitments may constrain some forces’
ability to migrate to a new operating model and
technology base in the short term;
There is a need to balance ambition and
benefits: depending on the option selected, the
scale and complexity of the business change
needed could deter effective action, risking
incomplete solutions and poor implementation,
which will in turn reduce the benefits obtained
and restrict the scope for further
improvements;
Delays in selecting and implementing a
preferred future model will increase the gap
between capability being delivered and
evolving needs, thereby increasing the
business change challenge that needs to be
addressed.
These risks are discussed more fully in the
Management Case in this document.
ORGANISATION DESIGN AND GOVERNANCE
The Transforming Forensics project has
recognised, but not yet attempted to resolve,
issues around governance, organisational
structure, sourcing options, staffing and delivery
locations that will need to be resolved in order to
implement the preferred solution. This will be
addressed as part of a Full Business Case, if
commissioned.
The relative merits of alternative structures will
depend on business goals, governance
requirements, the nature of the services being
provided and the starting point for any necessary
transformation. At this stage there is considerable
flexibility over how and where forensic/biometric
services will best be delivered, taking account of
local preferences, policing needs, delivery costs,
capability sharing opportunities, and engagement
with regulatory authorities and forensic service
providers.
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Additionally, much forensic service activity can
potentially be bought in by forces – as is current
practice. While these considerations apply to all
aspects of the proposed future service, the impact
on FSPs is an area of particular concern to police
forces, the Home Office and the providers
themselves. The recent Forensic Science
Strategy states an explicit goal that the future use
of forensics ‘supports a sustainable market for
forensic services – encouraging partnerships and
encouraging R&D investment’. Work to date
suggests that the preferred approach will continue
to be to use forensic service providers selectively
to maximise benefits while retaining essential
elements within policing.
At this Outline Business Case stage, the future
forensic service models are not sufficiently mature
to allow detailed consideration of these issues,
and stakeholders have not yet had an opportunity
to contribute fully to this debate. Following
confirmation of a preferred option, the core
decisions that will be required should be
identified, agreement reached in outline as to how
these will be made, and appropriate points
specified in the business change programme
when these decisions will need to be made.
The preferred governance model for
recommended forensic service option will be
confirmed in the proposed Full Business Case.
MEETING LOCAL FORCE PRIORITIES
During more recent work with senior forensic
managers, some have expressed concern that, if
a combined service is introduced, there will be
winners and losers in terms of service levels
received and responsiveness to local needs, with
larger, metropolitan forces potentially dominating
service planning and delivery.
Initial service design work to date and an
understanding of how some other organisations
approach this question suggest that in practice
improvements in services both at a local level and
a national level can be delivered. This can, in part,
be facilitated by balancing national governance
with delivery at an appropriate level (from local to
national) to meet forces’ priorities and ways of
working. Nevertheless, these are valid concerns
and will need to be resolved if forensic
transformation is to win approval from most
forces.
Therefore, while this issue has not been
addressed specifically in this Outline Business
Case, it is recognised and will be addressed
subsequently when the service design for the
preferred option is developed in more detail.
INTEGRATING SYSTEMS AND INFORMATION
This Outline Business Case does not provide a
full design for the technology solution needed to
support each option. Instead, it draws on the high-
level business designs to derive a realistic model
that allows estimation of the costs of
implementing and operating the necessary
technology services and infrastructure for each
option.
These technology models were developed by
applying core principles that reflect the earlier
technology review of forces and the contributions
of the expert group. These include:
taking a pragmatic approach to how new
technology will relate to existing police and
forensic systems that will remain in place;
converging on standard package choices and
keeping different elements loosely coupled, to
reduce the complexity of the technology estate
and ease future evolution;
using the same fixed and mobile networks as
the forces being supported;
providing access to application functionality
and data through simple but secure network
access to a common service;
working with IT and software suppliers to
develop and support the tools needed to
enable the forensic business vision.
This work, which has assessed the feasibility of
delivering the technology needed to support each
option, is described more fully in the Economic
Case and in the supporting appendices to the
Outline Business Case.
RESOLVING COMMERCIAL CONSIDERATION
The Forensic Science Strategy sets the following
aspirations for commercial arrangements to
underpin future forensic service provision:
consistent quality management and
standardisation;
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a review by police forces of the case for a
single service, to achieve economies of scale,
increased capability and resilience;
ongoing oversight of the health of the supply
chain;
stronger partnership with industry and
education to help align programmes with future
business requirements.
These are reflected in the high level objectives for
the project, and are captured in the evaluation of
the five options and the Commercial case sets out
in detail how the preferred option may be
supported commercially.
REGULATORY OVERSIGHT
In taking forward the preferred option for future
forensic services to a Full Business Case, it will
be essential for the future delivery model to
ensure the robustness of the scientific foundations
of police forensic provision and establish sound
risk management processes. It is therefore
proposed that the project continues to engage
with the FSR and the Biometrics Commissioner
following Outline Business Case acceptance to
ensure its detailed proposals meet regulatory
needs in an effective and efficient manner.
PARLIAMENTARY OVERSIGHT
The Home Office will continue to provide updates
to the House of Commons Science and
Technology Committee as options are resolved
and the Full Business Case developed.
CONCLUSION
New law enforcement challenges require new
ways of working, and continuing with current ways
of working cannot adequately serve the public in
the face of changing crime patterns and rising
expectations.
To meet the challenges facing future forensic
service delivery, more radical change will be
needed than has been possible to date. Policing
therefore needs to agree its vision for
transforming future forensic service delivery.
Transformational change offers significant
enduring benefits, in that it:
will embed best practice and deliver high
quality outcomes to support policing’s
safeguarding and public protection mission;
will lead to more resilient, sustainable, flexible
and better organised services capable of
meeting new and emerging threats;
can free resources to support high priority
areas, and thus better position forces to meet
continuing resource pressures;
offers a potential first step towards the wider
police transformation that will be necessary to
meet future needs.
The prospect of transforming police forensic
services in this way is unprecedented, and has
been described by one Chief Constable as a
‘once in a lifetime’ opportunity.
The Transforming Forensics project has
developed and evaluated a range of potential
service models for the future delivery of forensic
services, varying from basic improvement to more
complete transformation. The subsequent
sections of this Outline Business Case provide an
objective evaluation of the benefits and
challenges these options involve, identify a
preferred option, and describe how it may be
realised.
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INTRODUCTION
The Economic Case provides a comprehensive
and conservative assessment of the options, in
order to define a preferred option.
This appraisal is presented in the following order
in this chapter, with the proposed option being
identified in the Economic Case Summary:
Option Definition
Transformation Objectives
Capabilities Considered and Associated
Benefits
Development of the Options
Introduction to the Options
(Per Option)
Design Drivers and Key Outcomes
Transition Approach
Option Conclusions
Quantitative Analysis
Introduction to the Analysis
Option 1 (Baseline) Description
Option 2-5 Quantitative Analysis
Option 2-5 Quantitative Analysis –
Summary
Optimism Bias
Sensitivity Analysis
Qualitative Assessment
Introduction
Approach
Analysis
Commercial Considerations
Introduction
Summary
Current Forensic Landscape
High Level SWOT
Options Assessment
Economic Case Summary
Appendices
The following terminology is used throughout the
Economic Case, therefore a brief explanation is
provided below:
Forensic Delivery Costs – Cost of personnel
(including training), accreditation, premises
and services (i.e. logistics and bought in
forensics services from FSPs) for the delivery
of Business As Usual (BAU) forensics
services. IT costs are excluded unless
specifically identified.
Existing IT Delivery Costs – The costs of
maintaining the current level of IT capability.
Investment Costs – Business transition costs
required to deliver an option.
Additional Tech Delivery Costs – Technical
costs (i.e. new systems / services) required to
deliver an option.
Total Costs - the sum of:
Forensic delivery costs
Existing IT delivery costs
Investment costs
Additional Tech Delivery Costs
Financial NPV – Compares the equivalent ‘do
nothing’ Total Cost to the Option Total Cost
Economic Benefits – benefits that can be
quantified in terms of money generated and
money saved.
Business As Usual (BAU) – an ongoing and
unchanging state of affairs despite difficulties
or disturbances.
Economic Case
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‘Do Nothing’ – the baseline position for
comparison within the economic case, also
referred to as Option 1
Economic NPV – Compares the equivalent ‘do
nothing’ Total Cost to the Option Total Cost,
inclusive of benefits
Optimism Bias – An empirically-based
adjustment to a project’s costs to offset the
tendency of optimistic estimation
Qualitative Benefits – benefits that cannot be
measured in numerical form.
Quantitative Benefits – benefits that can be
measured numerically.
Sensitivity Analysis – technique used to
determine how different values of an
independent variable impact a particular
dependent variable under a given set of
assumptions.
Transition – The formal business process that
puts the design goals, priorities and strategies
in place for a successful migration from the
“as-is” to the “to-be” operating model.
OPTION DEFINITION
TRANSFORMATION OBJECTIVES
The Strategic Case sets out the rationale for
transforming forensic service delivery. As part of
this analysis, it identifies the essential goals for a
future service as:
Delivering better outcomes;
Building capability for the future;
Supporting re-investment in priority areas;
Enabling wider reform.
The Strategic Case goes on to describe how a set
of five options for future service design has been
developed for consideration. Drawing to varying
degrees on the transformation goals and reflecting
anticipated developments in forensic and
biometric capabilities, these range from making
the minimum changes necessitated by the
updated biometric matching systems currently
being developed, to comprehensive service
transformation involving new ways of working and
the consolidation of capabilities to deliver a unified
service to forces.
SUMMARY OF EACH OPTION
The Five Options
1 Maintain
service
continuity
Undertake the minimum changes necessitated by updated HOB functionality
Essentially the do nothing option. Forces will be expected to make some changes to
accept the deliverables within the HOB programme and therefore will receive some
benefits such as those associated with improved matching capabilities within the
fingerprint system.
This option forms the baseline against which the other options are assessed in the
Economic Case.
2 Utilise
enablers
Introduce a centrally-enabled business change function to maximise the
benefits obtained from updated HOB functionality
This would work with forces to standardise practice in the utilisation of the HOB
products and light touch coordination to support portfolio work associated with
research and development, quality standards and commercial strategy.
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3 Maximise
national
infrastructure
Implement a centrally-enabled and delivered infrastructure supporting individual
forces or collaborations
This would include a centrally coordinated quality management function, some
technology improvements that would begin to streamline access to forensic systems
(i.e. web enabled portal) and aggregated procurement of front-line tools (e.g. rapid
forensics, digital kiosks).
4 Aggregate
service
delivery
Aggregate back end services to ‘super-regional hubs’
These would deliver those specialised, repeatable, high throughput forensic services
to an industrialised and appropriate quality standard.
This option would begin to impact on demand driven capabilities such as digital
forensics and mitigate risks associated with resilience in more complex capabilities
that are difficult and expensive to maintain at force and collaboration levels.
Governance and control would be retained at force / collaboration / super-regional
levels.
5 Full
integration
Establish a unified and fully integrated end-to-end forensic service that delivers
to local, regional and national (and international) requirements
This option would simplify governance arrangements and introduce aggregated
capabilities in a consistent way to the appropriate quality standards. It would also
maximise the use of technologies, including at-scene forensic tools, to ensure that the
service can rapidly flex to local requirements. The proposed forensic service would
include all physical and digital forensic activities, but exclude digital investigations and
intelligence, and communications intelligence.
This option would exert influence over the whole forensic supply chain, including
locally-based scene investigation services and would steer the direction of research
and development, as well as the commercial and partnership approaches to
‘procurement’ of service and supplies.
NB: Although there are some common elements across the options, each option is self-contained, and they
should not be seen as sequential stages on a common implementation path.
Figure 5: Summary of the five options
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DEFINING THE OPTIONS AND
BENEFITS
From the outset of work on the Outline Business
Case, the project team worked to identify the key
benefits that underpinned the four strategic
themes described above. These benefits were
mapped to capabilities inherent within the service
design for each option.
The mapping of benefits to capabilities assisted
the design efforts by helping define the service
models at a finer level of detail and linking their
characteristics specifically to the benefits sought.
The early identification of the benefits, and the
capabilities to which they align, enabled the team
to define the following within the Economic Case:
the scope range that each option would
comprise;
quantitative values associated with each
potential benefit, aligned to options;
qualitative benefits, aligned to options.
The capability breakdown used to define and
bound the options at a summary level, are
detailed below:
Policy;
Research & Development (R&D);
Quality Management;
Network of advisory specialists;
Marketplace;
Tasking of forensic personnel;
Traditional forensic resources and capability;
Rapid at scene technology (FP marks, DNA
stains and footprints left at crime scene)
Rapid biometric identification
Digital forensics;
Exploiting HOB capabilities;
Logistics;
Central management;
Work management system;
Scene reconstruction;
Digital scene recording / scene investigation;
Cross-case analysis, i.e. intelligence.
The options presented in this business case are
built around these capabilities, both from a
business and technical design perspective, so
that there is a clear line of sight from benefit to
capability and ultimately, the option presented.
DEVELOPMENT OF THE OPTIONS
An Expert Group of Forensic Practitioners
developed the detail of the five design options
through a series of development and review
sessions. The options were created in accordance
with the development stages below:
1. Definition of the Transforming Forensics
vision.
2. Definition of the capability for the Forensic
Services.
3. Identification of the Forensic Services to
attain the vision, including a definition of
the service outcomes and the benefits
required of those future services.
4. Alignment of the services along five
distinct approaches to create the options
as presented in this Economic Case
The options were then tested against data
collected from visits to forces, and best practice
from other public and private sector organisations
to validate the viability of the designs and to
identify the costs and benefits associated with
each.
These workshops, and other events / activities,
were also used to define the technical solution
that underpins each option. Whilst the Economic
Case does not go into the detail of the technical
solution, the Transforming Forensics Technical
Design3 document outlines:
the technical aspects of each options design;
key findings of visits to forces to understand
their ‘as-is’ technology;
principles for forensic technology distribution
and delivery;
technology packages for option costing;
assumptions underpinning the technical design
and items to be challenged in the FBC;
technology costing assumptions.
OPTION 1 | MAINTAIN SERVICE
CONTINUITY
This option focuses on maintaining the
continuity of the forensic service when the
IDENT1 system is decommissioned and
replaced by the HOB Matcher tool. Requiring
minimal adjustments in the delivery of
forensic services, this is the ‘do nothing’
3 Transforming Forensics Technical Design
Document
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option and serves as the baseline for
comparison in the Economic Case.
Design Drivers and Key Outcomes
Maintaining the continuity of forensic services as
technology is migrated would result in no change
to the way forensic services are currently
organised; these would continue to be locally or
regionally owned, and delivered by local forces or
collaborations. The key outcomes for this option
include:
More accurate automated fingerprint matching
and consistent availability of ‘lights out’
capability for bureaux. The improved accuracy
of the matcher algorithm is estimated to
increase the number of identifications achieved
by approximately 13%.
An improved digital fingerprint mark up and
analysis capability, arising from the
introduction of improved analytical applications
in the HOB Matcher tools.
The ability to conduct Fingerprint analysis at a
single terminal, removing the need to copy,
paste and print between multiple information
points; this results from the implementation of
access to HOB capabilities through force
desktop IT and from updated interfaces
between HOB and local bureau tools.
The ability to work from multiple desks or
locations, through the introduction of a browser
portal to the HOB matcher, from the desktop.
Automated DNA processing to produce faster
matching for repeatable services and enable
staff to focus on delivering more specialist
services. This will provide faster forensic
results to front line staff.
This option will not include the following
outcomes:
Changes to any forensic services other than
Fingerprint and DNA services.
Centrally co-ordinated or funded business
change activity to support the introduction of
the HOB technical changes. Any coordination
would need to be initiated and achieved
locally, for example, as an extension of
existing collaborations between bureaux.
Changes to the current organisation of
Fingerprint bureaux, the DNA Delivery Unit or
other forensic services. Force Fingerprint
matching services would continue to be
managed and delivered either locally or
regionally.
Changes to existing approach to accreditation
for forensic tools and services.
Transition Approach
Forces/collaborations would be required to
individually plan and implement the changes
required from the migration to accept the new
technology into their operational processes.
Migration activities would require staff to prepare
for technical integration and possibly for some
minor changes to processes.
Option 1 - Conclusion
The replacement technology from HOB will
enable some incremental improvements to the
Fingerprint and DNA matching services. This
provides an opportunity to change the focus of
Fingerprint bureaux staff from volume Fingerprint
processing to more complex Fingerprint matching
activity, should individual bureaux choose this.
However, this option focuses only on maintaining
biometric service continuity. It delivers no
transformational impact on the wider forensic
service, and therefore has no transformational
impact on the services offered to the public. This
model perpetuates the currently fragmented
approach to forensic delivery and the high-costs
associated with delivering multiple, duplicated
services, with each running at less than optimum
capacity, and therefore offers limited value for
money.
The Transforming Forensics programme would
not offer any enhancements to the HOB outcomes
listed above should this ‘do nothing’ option be
preferred.
OPTION 2 | UTILISE ENABLERS
This option focuses on maximising the value
derived from existing enabling tools. It will
promote further co-ordination of some cross-
force forensic services, building on those
which already exist, including the Forensic
Delivery Board and NPCC Strategic
Marketplace Board.
Design Drivers and Key Outcomes
There would be, in addition to roles that exist in
the current forensic organisations, a small number
of roles introduced to support the co-ordination of
some enabling forensic services, in the areas of
Policy, R&D, Quality Management, Forensic
Expertise and Marketplace services. The use of
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existing enablers would result in no organisational
structure changes and no changes to how
forensic services are currently managed. The key
outcomes from this option would include:
A business change team to consistently
implement the technical enablers from the
HOB programme and deliver a single, common
fingerprint matching process for all bureaux.
This would result in all forces running the most
efficient consistent Fingerprint process,
thereby providing faster forensic results to front
line staff, and a more consistent delivery of
Fingerprint services.
A central forum and a co-ordinating role for
each of the enabling services: Policy, R&D,
Quality Management, Forensic Expertise and
Marketplace services. This could build on the
existing marketplace co-ordination and expert
networks. Some knowledge sharing regarding
approaches to accreditation across forces
would occur with the introduction of a central
Quality Management support role.
A national forensic access portal that would
federate force log-ins to allow access to
national capabilities and cross-border
collaboration. This would result in further
sharing of best practice and some alignment of
forensic approaches across forces, for those
that chose to be involved.
The above would be in addition to the outcomes
delivered in Option 1,Maintain Service Continuity,
which include:
More accurate, automated fingerprint matching
and consistent availability of ‘lights out’
capability for bureaux. The improved accuracy
of the matcher algorithm is estimated to
increase the number of identifications achieved
by approximately 13%.
An improved digital fingerprint mark up and
analysis capability, from the introduction of
improved analytical applications in the HOB
Matcher tools.
The ability to conduct Fingerprint analysis at a
single terminal, removing the need to copy,
paste and print between multiple information
points; this results from the implementation of
access to HOB capabilities through force
desktop IT and from updated interfaces
between HOB and local bureau tools.
The ability to work from multiple desks or
locations, through the introduction of a browser
portal to the HOB matcher, via a browser on
the desktop.
Automated DNA processing to produce faster
matching for repeatable services, and enable
staff to focus on delivering more specialist
services, which again, will provide faster
forensic results to front line staff.
This option will not include the following:
Any centrally designed or coordinated
organisation structure changes. Similar to
Option 1, force forensic management and
delivery would remain locally provisioned with
no change to the structure of the forensic
organisations.
Ongoing support for the use of collaboration
tools. Use of these will be self-initiated and any
support service agreements will need to be
purchased and managed locally.
Transition Stages
Transition for each force would be defined and
supported by a centrally co-ordinated business
change programme to deliver a co-ordinated,
more efficient implementation of the technical and
process changes involved. The approach to
transition would be to implement the changes in
groups of forces at a time, to better enable
migration deadlines to be met. At the end of each
change, the transition would be assessed, the
approach refined and then the best practice
resulting from prior implementations would move
to the next group to transition.
An overview of the transition approach for this
option is detailed in Appendix B-2.
Option 2 - Conclusion
This option focuses on using technical enablers
and standard processes to improve the efficiency
of the existing way of delivering Fingerprint
services. A single, consistent Fingerprint process
will result in identifications being returned quicker
to officers to aid their investigation. The
introduction of a business change team to co-
ordinate the implementation of the HOB
functionality will enable more consistent and
effective business implementation of technical
change.
However, this option offers incremental
improvements to a small biometric element of the
much wider forensic service. This offers limited
value for money, with the cost of continuing to run
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many duplicate biometric services from the
different physical delivery locations remaining
high. This option offers limited joined-up delivery
and does not support transformational change to
keep up to date with the changing crime
landscape. It will, similarly to Option 1, perpetuate
a fragmented delivery of existing and future
forensic services. Additionally, although a
consistent approach to transition and consistent
processes will be implemented, the fragmented
governance may result in inconsistencies in
processes still being created over time.
The transition to this option will require funding
from forces locally as this option only drives out
incremental improvements.
OPTION 3 | MAXIMISE THE NATIONAL
INFRASTRUCTURE
This option would provide the opportunity to
introduce best value, more consistent front-
line technology for forces or regions.
Additionally, this would coordinate some
enabling services at a national level, as well as
maximising the effectiveness nationally of
investments in enabling technology.
Design Drivers and Key Outputs
This option offers the opportunity to protect
victims through the introduction of more
consistent, value for money front line technology.
This option would also improve forensic practices
by creating a formal team to provide forces with
national support for key enabling services
including Quality Management and Procurement.
The driver to maximise this national infrastructure
would require no organisational structure changes
alterations in how forensic services are currently
managed or delivered. The key outcomes of this
option include:
Access to best value front line and scene
technology, digitisation applications and scene
capture technology, for example RapidDNA.
Central procurement support would secure the
benefits of a national pricing mechanism for
scene technology. The Met Digital Forensics
and Rapid Forensic Proof of Concepts would
inform best practice here. This would result in
a marked improvement in the victim
experience, due to the speed of forensic
results returned, which would support police
investigations where forces use this
procurement mechanism.
Development of the Head of Professions role
and a team to offer forces further enabling
support in the areas of Forensic Policy, R&D,
Quality Management, Forensic Expertise and
Marketplace services. This would include the
development of common approaches, best
practice and partnerships.
A central Quality Management service to
provide, at a minimum, proficiency testing,
competency testing, validation, standard
operating procedures and auditing capability
across force forensics. This would result in
strong co-ordination of accreditation activities
across forces by a central team and therefore
a significant reduction in accreditation costs.
The above would be in addition to the outputs
delivered in Options 1 and 2, which would
include:
A business change team to consistently
implement the technical enablers from the
HOB programme and deliver a single, common
fingerprint matching process for all bureaux.
This would result in all forces running the most
efficient consistent Fingerprint process,
thereby providing faster forensic results to front
line staff, and a more consistent delivery of
Fingerprint services.
A national forensic access portal that would
federate force logins to allow access to
national capabilities and cross-border
collaboration. This would result in further
sharing of best practice and some alignment of
forensic approaches across forces, for those
that chose to be involved
More accurate, automated Fingerprint
matching and consistent availability of ‘lights
out’ capability for bureaux. The improved
accuracy of the matcher algorithm is estimated
to increase the number of identifications
achieved by approximately 13%.
An improved digital fingerprint mark up and
analysis capability, from the introduction of
improved analytical applications in the HOB
Matcher tools.
The ability to conduct fingerprint analysis at a
single terminal, removing the need to copy,
paste and print between multiple information
points; this results from the implementation of
access to HOB capabilities through force
desktop IT and from updated interfaces
between HOB and local bureau tools.
The ability to work from multiple desks or
locations, through the introduction of a browser
portal to the HOB matcher, via a browser on
the desktop.
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Automated DNA processing to produce faster
matching for repeatable services, and enable
staff to focus on delivering more specialist
services, which again, will provide faster
forensic results to front line staff.
This option does not include the following:
Any changes to the organisational structure of
forensic services, except for the introduction of
a co-ordination services team; these will
remain locally managed and delivered.
Central procurement, management and
service support of forensic tools and services.
The central co-ordinating team will assist in
negotiating pricing mechanisms and offer
purchasing and commercial support to forces,
which would continue to procure locally.
Nationally owned and delivered accreditation
services. Though a central team will be in
place to support co-ordination of these
activities, ownership of this activity remains at
the existing force or collaboration level.
Transition Stages
Transition to this option would be supported by a
centrally managed and delivered business change
programme.
An overview of the transition approach for Option
3 is detailed in Appendix B-3.
Option 3 - Conclusion
This option would offer significant technology and
infrastructure benefits for those forces that choose
to utilise the centrally negotiated pricing
mechanisms to purchase scene technology and
other tools and services. Where adopted,
enhanced scene technology could deliver a
significant reduction in elapsed time in forensic
processing, through the introduction of more
consistent, best value front line forensic
technology such as RapidDNA kits. The
coordination and support for Forensic Policy,
R&D, Quality Management, Forensic Expertise
and Marketplace services would produce a more
consistent and innovative approach to delivering
these forensic services through reduced
duplication and a focus on a common strategy for
these areas.
However, the benefits of this option rely on forces
choosing to utilise the procurement and co-
ordination support available to them and to fund
the front-end technology. This could still allow a
lack of consistency in the front-line services
offered to the public, arising from how this
technology is used or from forces not having the
available funding for this technology. Additionally,
no ongoing service support would be provided for
any scene technology purchased using the
centrally negotiated pricing mechanism and so
this would require local negotiation and
implementation.
The majority of forensic services would still
operate in silos with this option, continuing to
incur the high running costs of multiple, duplicate
services. Additionally, should a sufficient number
of forces choose not to use the co-ordination
support, the creation of this team would be a
duplicate in forensic services further than the
current position, as forces would still retain
resources in these areas locally. This would result
in higher overall costs. Similar to Options 1 and 2,
this option would continue the fragmented
approach to the introduction of new forensic
services in the future; for example, facial
recognition will continue to grow at differing rates
in local labs, resulting in higher running costs and
continued inconsistent approaches to
identification.
OPTION 4 | AGGREGATE FORENSIC SERVICES
This option would aggregate the management
and delivery of ‘non-frontline’ forensic
services to a small number of ‘super-regions’
covering England and Wales. These would be
larger than current geographically-based
regions and collaborations. This would drive
efficiencies in the processing of high-
throughput, repeatable forensic services and
free up capability to focus on more complex
forensic processing. It would not alter how
front-line forensic services are managed and
delivered.
Design Drivers and Key Outcomes
Aggregating high throughput specialised
capabilites will create an effective, efficient
service whilst building public confidence through
consistency of experience. This option redefines
the existing organisation structures for forensic
‘back-end’ services by aggregating the
management and delivery of those services into
super-regions. This option will deliver the
following outcomes:
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Facilitates a focus on more complex lower
volume forensic services by driving efficiencies
in the delivery of high throughput, repeatable
services.
Value-for-money ‘back-end’ services with
significantly low costs arising through the
reduction in the number of delivery locations
required, and maximising the efficiency of
delivering high volume repeatable processes.
Opportunities to drive consistency in the
delivery of digital forensic processing, resulting
in improved capability to support forces in
tackling emerging crime types.
Consistent delivery of face, footwear, scars,
marks, tattoos and pattern matching services
to provide a more complete forensic picture to
support investigations.
A national forensic portal to support access to
multiple forensic systems including digital
forensic image and video processing and
scene reconstruction services, together with
more flexible access to national data services
such as the National Footwear Database. This
would enable staff to gain access to wider sets
of information to improve efficiency in delivery.
The above would be in addition to the outputs
delivered in Options 1 to 3, which would include:
Access to best value front line and scene
technology, digitisation applications and scene
capture technology, for example RapidDNA.
Central procurement support would secure the
benefits of a national pricing mechanism for
scene technology. This would result in a
marked improvement in the victim experience,
due to the speed of forensic results returned
which would support police investigations,
where forces that use this procurement
mechanism.
Development of the Head of Professions role
and the team to offer forces further support to
forces in the areas of Forensic Policy, R&D,
Quality Management, Forensic Expertise and
Marketplace services. This would include the
development of common approaches, best
practice, partnerships and IP.
A central Quality Mmanagement service to
provide, at a minimum, proficiency testing,
competency testing, validation, standard
operating procedures and auditing capability
across force forensics. This would result in a
reduction in the cost of accreditation, as this
could be co-ordinated centrally rather than
each force requiring its own approach to
gaining accreditation.
A business change team to consistently
implement the technical enablers from the
HOB programme and deliver a single, common
fingerprint matching process for all bureaux.
This would result in all forces running the most
efficient consistent fingerprint process, thereby
providing faster forensic results to front line
staff, and a more consistent delivery of
fingerprint services.
A national forensic access portal that would
federate force logins to allow access to
national capabilities and cross-border
collaboration. This would result in further
sharing of best practice and some alignment of
forensic approaches across forces, for those
that chose to be involved
More accurate, automated fingerprint matching
and consistent availability of ‘lights out’
capability for bureaux. The improved accuracy
of the matcher algorithm is estimated to
increase the number of matches achieved by
approximately 13%.
An improved digital fingerprint mark up and
analysis capability, from the introduction of
improved analytical applications in the HOB
Matcher tools.
The ability to conduct fingerprint analysis at a
single terminal, removing the need to copy,
paste and print between multiple information
points; this results from the implementation of
access to HOB capabilities through force
desktop IT and from updated interfaces
between HOB and local bureau tools.
The ability to work from multiple desks or
locations, through the introduction of a browser
portal to the HOB matcher, via a browser on
the desktop.
Automated DNA processing to produce faster
matching for repeatable services, and enable
staff to focus on delivering more specialist
services, which again, will provide faster
forensic results to front line staff.
This option does not include the following:
Changes to the delivery of front-line services
or more complex forensic processing services.
These would remain delivered at a regional or
local level as they currently are.
Changes to the national governance,
management and delivery of existing national
services such as NDU and NABIS.
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Transition Stages
Transition to this option would require a change
from forces delivering back-end forensic services
at a current local level to these services being
delivered on a super-regional level, which will in
turn necessitate consolidation of physical
locations to better meet demand in a more cost
effective way. Transition for forces to super-
regional delivery would occur in stages, to confirm
the approach to aggregating the services with a
few forces, and a review of improvements for the
next group of forces to consolidate within super-
regions would follow.
An overview of the transition approach for Option
4 is detailed in Appendix B-3
Option 4 - Conclusion
This option would deliver significant benefits to
operational policing. It would drive efficiencies in
back-end services to enable greater focus on the
development of the more specialist forensic
capabilities that are needed to tackle more
complex crimes. This option would result in
significantly reduced running costs as a
consequence of fewer labs being required and a
reduced risk in the end-to-end supply chain as
aggregation will strengthen the negotiation
position by introducing category management
approaches to procurement within each super-
region.
However, this option creates a strong divide
between local policing ownership and delivery of
Crime Scene Investigation (CSI) services and the
super-regional ownership of back-end services,
which could exacerbate some of the problems
encountered by current collaborations.
Additionally, inefficiencies and inconsistency in
local front-line services will impact the ability to
drive efficiencies in centrally run, high volume
forensic services. Although delivering back-end
services at a super-regional level would
significantly lower running costs, inefficiencies
would still exist in running duplicate services,
more than required to meet national demand,
managed by different super-regional bodies.
Separate management of parts of the forensic
service by super-regions could also restrict the
development of a holistic, national forensic view
for emerging threats to support police intelligence
activity.
Transition costs with this option would be high
owing to the complexity and the number of
locations involved and this option lacks the
flexibility to develop future forensic services
consistently and cost effectively, as this would
require duplication across super-regions.
OPTION 5 | FULL FORENSIC INTEGRATION
This option would establish a unified, fully
integrated end-to-end forensic service under
single management that would deliver to local,
regional and national (and international)
requirements. It would design, direct and
deliver forensic services built around local
forces’ needs, from the scene of crime to the
transfer of forensic evidence into the criminal
justice system, while seeking process
economies that would offer best value for
money. The proposed forensic service would
include all traditional and digital forensic
activities, but would exclude digital
investigations and intelligence, and
communications intelligence.
Design Drivers and Key Outcomes
This option would redefine existing organisational
structures and the ownership of forensic services
to result in a centrally governed and managed
service. Together with moving forensic services
as close to the scene as possible, it will enable
the provision of forensic services to occur at as
near to optimum capacity as possible, balancing
capacity to demand. Delivery of the service will
occur via a mix of local, regional and national
delivery methods, depending on the service, to
retain the necessary link between police forensics
and local communities where this remains
paramount.
Key outcomes which are unique to this option
include:
Digital kiosks and triage tools to be
consistently available at the front line in order
to optimise the victim experience by removing
the need to confiscate digital devices, to
support the police in resolving and preventing
crime more effectively.
Digital self service to be introduced at the front
line via a ‘digital first’ approach. Digitisation of
exhibits would be enabled, where possible
(and approriate). This support efficiencies in
matching activities and deliver a consistent,
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highly efficient and accurate evidential input
into the CJS.
Digital labs in place to produce improved
results for digital evidence and intelligence for
police investigations.
Intelligent use of technology to assess and
deliver to local priorities, from the reinvestment
available from the costs savings resulting in
unifying forensic services
Forensic processing service to be available
24/7 through the delivery of a consolidated
forensic service, end-to-end. The result of
which would be the right prioritisation of
forensic services and an aggregated forensic
response for the police.
Provision of a forensic intelligence service
spanning across boundaries to better tackle
emerging, national threats and to minimise
and prevent crime. This would be supported
by a new forensic casework management and
intelligence capability to provide seamless
access to case-related status and progress, as
well as the joined-up forensic intelligence to
support more complete and timely detections
and forensic outcomes.
A focus on more complex forensic services by
driving efficiencies in the delivery of high
throughput, repeatable services.
Value for money ‘back-end’ services from a
large reduction in running costs from the
reduction in the number of delivery locations
required and in maximising the efficiency at
running those high volume processes.
Resulting in improved public perception of
quality of service.
Opportunities to drive consistency in the
delivery of digital forensic processing, resulting
in the ability to support tackling emerging crime
types.
Comprehensive national direction and
management of forensic services drives
delivery at national and local scale, appropriate
to force priorities and needs.
Consistency in face, footwear, scars, marks,
tattoos and pattern matching at a super-
regional level to provide a more holistic
forensic picture to support investigations.
A national forensic portal to support access to
multiple forensic systems including digital
forensic image and video processing, scene
reconstruction services, and more flexible
access to national data services like the
National Footwear Database. This would
enable staff to gain access to wider sets of
information from one place to improve
efficiency in delivery.
Central co-ordination and delivery of Forensic
Policy, R&D, Quality Management, Advisory
and Procurement and Commercial services to
deliver best practice approaches, national
partnerships.
Standardised aggregated end-to-end
processes within a Quality Management
environment, resulting in consistent
experiences by service users regardless of
force.
Efficient management of risk in the supply
chain. An integrated approach will strengthen
the negotiation position and allow a single
category management approach to attain best
value for money from third parties.
The above would be in addition to the outputs
delivered in other options, which would include:
A national forensic access portal that would
federate force logins to allow access to
national capabilities and cross-border
collaboration. This would result in further
sharing of best practice and some alignment of
forensic approaches across forces, for those
that chose to be involved.
An improved digital fingerprint mark up and
analysis capability, from the introduction of
improved analytical applications in the HOB
Matcher tools.
The ability to conduct fingerprint analysis at a
single terminal, removing the need to copy,
paste and print between multiple information
points; this results from the implementation of
access to HOB capabilities through force
desktop IT and from updated interfaces
between HOB and local bureau tools.
Access to best value front line and scene
technology, digitisation applications and scene
capture technology, for example RapidDNA.
The ability to work from multiple desks or
locations, from the introduction of a portal to
the HOB matcher, via a browser on the
desktop.
Automated DNA processing to produce faster
matching for repeatable services, and enable
staff to focus on delivering more specialist
services, which again, will provide faster
forensic results to front line staff.
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This option does not include the following:
Any local or regional management of services.
This option would result in a central, national
management of service (delivery would occur
via a mixture of local, regional and national
methods).
A service model for this option can be seen in
Appendix B-6.
Transition stages
Transition to this model would be completed via a
number of stages. An incremental approach to
transformation would allow the ability to change,
assess and adjust during a transition of this scale,
rather than a ‘big bang’ implementation,
acknowledging that this transformation may occur
over multiple years. The key benefits of this
transition approach include continual alignment
with budgetary positions and the ability to respond
to any future changes to the forensic landscape.
This change would be planned and managed by a
central business change programme with local
business change staff to support a smooth
transition. An overview of the transition approach
for Option 5 is detailed in Appendix B-4.
Option 5 - Conclusion
This model would redefine how forensic services
are delivered. A move to a unified service would
provide the opportunity to transform the user
experience, support safeguarding and preventing
crime and the capability to keep up with a
changing and inreasingly complex crime
landscape. This option would be designed around
the user needs, moving forensic processing as
close to the scene as possible, whilst still
generating significant cost savings, which could
be reinvested. Self service at the scene,
consistent rapid scene technology and digital first
approaches are enabled within the scope of this
model at the front-line, with 24/7 forensic
processing, process automation and national
forensic intelligence capabilities being made
possible in back end services.
This option would transform the way that forensic
services are delivered; the changes required are
complex and far reaching. However, this option
may be politically challenging since it results in
forensic services moving away from local or
regional ownership to central control.
MEETING TRANSFORMATION GOALS
Service transformation offers the prospect to build
on existing strengths and exploit new
opportunities to create a forensic capability that
will meet the future needs of police and other
stakeholders. It will do this by:
Delivering better outcomes – Transformation
will identify and embed best practice, deliver
consistent outcomes, and adopt and deliver
the highest standards, thereby providing
support to the safeguarding and public
protection mission of policing and the wider
Criminal Justice System.
Building capability for the future –
Transformation will lead to more resilient,
sustainable, flexible and coherently organised
services capable of adapting to local, regional
and national challenges, and new and
emerging threats.
Supporting re-investment in priority areas –Transformation will enable the delivery of more
efficient services, reduce accreditation costs
and optimise procurement opportunities to
release resources for reinvestment in other
policing priorities.
Enabling wider reform – Within the context of
the wider police reform programme, forensic
transformation represents one of the first
tangible steps towards planned wider police
transformation. Although it is not without its
challenges, as a first step it is arguably
relatively straightforward, and can pave the
way to the more profound reforms that the
NPCC and APCC are currently exploring.
The ways in which the individual options align with
the transformation themes underpinning this
busines case are summarised in the table on the
following page.
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Delivering better outcomes Building capability
for the future
Supporting re-investment in
priority areas
Enabling wider reform
Maintain service
continuity
Undertake the
minimum changes
necessitated by
updated HOB
functionality
Improved fingerprint matching
accuracy, leading to more
identifications, plus some
coordination of R&D and quality
standards
No change from current position Minor cost savings only – not
expected to enable major
investment in other areas
No impact
Utilise enablers
Introduce a centrally
enabled business
change function to
maximise the benefits
obtained from updated
HOB functionality
Improved fingerprint matching
accuracy, leading to more
matches, plus some
coordination of R&D and quality
standards
Only limited change from current
position, as forces/collaborations
coordinate approaches to R&D,
standards and commercial
activities only on an ad-hoc basis
Local cost savings only – not
expected to enable major
investment in other areas
No impact
Maximise national
infrastructure
Implement a centrally
enabled and delivered
infrastructure
supporting individual
forces or regions
Scope for wide improvements in
forces participating
National coordination would
facilitate planning and help steer
R&D
Significant risk of ‘drift’ in local
ways of working, which would
impede or prevent future
changes
Local cost savings through
coordinated planning and
purchasing with forces choosing
to use the central pricing
mechanism.
No realisation of cost reductions
through economies of scale
from service consolidation.
Not expected to enable major
investment in other areas
Limited impact. Central
coordination would assist
planning and some business
change (but only in forces
adopting central frameworks and
standards)
Continuation of a loosely
coupled forensic service delivery
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Delivering better outcomes Building capability
for the future
Supporting re-investment in
priority areas
Enabling wider reform
Aggregate service
delivery
Aggregate ‘non-
frontline’ services to
‘super regional hubs’
Regionally optimised common
processes, economies of scale,
agreed prioritisation and
consistent case tracking
Inter-regional knowledge
sharing limitations could restrict
dissemination of best practice
nationally
Regional scale would facilitate
planning and investment (though
not to same extent as national
approach)
Significant risk of longer-term
‘drift’ between regions in ways of
working, which would impede
future change
Scale economies at super-
regional level could enable
some re-investment in priority
areas, but savings would be
partly offset by the increased
operating costs in comparison to
a national model
Adoption of a geographically-
based super-regional model
could impede (or fail to support
effectively) future policing
reforms, by establishing an
inflexible delivery structure, for
forensic services that does not
align with other service reforms
The emergence of super-
regional variations could further
hinder wider reforms
Full integration
Establish a unified and
fully integrated end to
end forensic service
that delivers to local,
regional and national
(and international)
requirements
Optimised common processes,
economies of scale, agreed
prioritisation and consistent
case tracking
Consistent processes and
access to latest technologies
provides strong foundation for
planned change, through simpler
planning and easier execution
Maximum efficiency in the use
of resources (including people,
equipment and premises)
through national planning and
load sharing
Common processes and tools
nationally would provide a
foundation to readily adapt to
the needs of future reforms in
policing
Figure 6: Meeting transformational goals
This simple analysis indicates that Option 5 (Full
Integration) best supports the Strategic Themes.
Option 4 (Aggregate Service Delivery) also aligns
with some themes, but is unable to provide a
coherent platform for future service development
and would not necessarily support the wider
police reform programme. In practice, the
regional aggregation model could prove to be an
obstacle, rather than an enabler, to future service
development and support for future police
transformation.
Option 3 (Maximise National infrastructure)
partially addresses some of the themes, but does
not provide comprehensive support, and some
goals would remain unresolved.
Option 1 (Maintain Service Continuity) and
Option 2 (Utilise Enablers) do not address the
strategic themes to a meaningful extent, and thus
cannot be considered transformational.
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IMPACT ON STAKEHOLDERS
The tables below illustrate the potential main
impacts on forensic services’ diverse stakeholder
base.
Option 1
Victim
“I continue to receive the same local response
from my police force”
“I would like my case to be progressed quicker”
“It’s a shame that my phone had to be taken away
for evidence”
“I’m not sure I would report things to the police
knowing how long they kept my phone”
Police Officer
“There has been a little improvement in the time it
takes to get some fingerprint and DNA matches
back recently, which helps with our investigation”
“Having tools to collect basic forensic intelligence
at the scene would help to identify suspects who
may still be nearby, and prevent them from re-
offending”
“It would be great if we were better able to
process digital forensics as routine procedure, we
often have to wait for devices to be sent off to be
processed, which makes the investigation”
CSI
“I would like some more tools to assist me in
gaining a rapid response on exhibits to support
scene collection, and prioritise work”
Forensic practitioner
“We are improving small parts of the matching
process over time to try to speed up the accuracy
and time taken to achieve a match”
“I would like us to be able to offer a faster service,
a lot of what we do could be automated further
and we could focus on more complex cases”
“Developing our digital forensics capability
remains a huge challenge”
Chief Officer
“We match more fingerprints and marks, leading
to faster resolution of crimes, and protection of
local communities”
“We have not been able to release any resources
to support new priority areas”
“However I am aware performance is variable
across the country”
Figure 7: Stakeholder impacts – Option 1
Option 2
Victim
“I continue to receive the same local response
from my police force”
“I would like my case to be progressed quicker”
“It’s a shame that my phone had to be taken away
for evidence”
“I’m not sure I would report things to the police
knowing how long they kept my phone”
Police Officer
“There has been a little improvement in the time it
takes to get some fingerprint and DNA matches
back recently, which helps with our investigation”
“Having tools to collect basic forensic intelligence
at the scene would help to identify suspects who
may still be nearby, and prevent them from re-
offending”
“It would be great if we were better able to
process digital forensics as routine procedure, we
often have to wait for devices to be sent off to be
processed, which makes the investigation
lengthy”
CSI
“I would like some more tools to assist me in
gaining a rapid response on exhibits to support
scene collection and to prioritise my work”
“I get frustrated that ways of working between
forces are so different; it makes no sense and it
prevents me from being able to work outside of
the force’s border”
Forensic practitioner
“We are improving small parts of the matching
process over time to try to speed up the accuracy
and time taken to achieve a match”
“I would like us to be able to offer a faster service,
a lot of what we do could be automated further
and we could focus on more complex cases”
“Developing our digital forensics capability
remains a huge challenge”
Chief Officer
“We match more fingerprints and marks, leading
to faster resolution of crimes, and protection of
local communities”
“We have not been able to release any resources
to support new priority areas”
Figure 8: Stakeholder impacts – Option 2
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Option 3
Victim
“I continue to receive the same local response
from my police force”
“I would like my case to be progressed quicker”
“I would like to be able to get updates on my case
quickly and easily”
Police Officer
“Our force bought some Rapid DNA machines
recently and these have really helped to speed up
investigations, it would be great if forces could
have access to these to provide a consistent
service to the public”
“Forensic processing occurring during weekends
would really help to speed up investigations”
“ I don’t have the knowledge and tools to look for
digital evidence”
CSI
“I have access to some great rapid technology at
the scene. It means I can gain matches at the
scene, which helps me to prioritise forensic
collection and support police with their leads
quicker. It would be great if colleagues across the
border had this too”
“I get frustrated that ways of working between
forces are so different; it makes no sense and it
makes me far less effective in being able to work
outside of the force’s border”
Forensic practitioner
“Buying products and services jointly with other
forces has helped reduce costs”
“Despite central support, the pace of change
makes digital forensics a continuing challenge”
“We can still only provide forensic services during
‘office hours’, needing to rely special
arrangements for urgent cases”
“The central R&D support team has helped to give
us a view on what other forces are doing and
where we can focus our innovation funding so we
don’t duplicate the same research”
“It would be great if we could offer services during
more hours of the week to help officers progress
their investigations”
Chief Officer
“We match more fingerprints and marks, leading
to faster resolution of crimes, and protection of
local communities”
“We have not been able to release any resources
to support new priority areas”
“Listening to colleagues in larger forces, I am
concerned that our forensic capabilities can’t
keep up with the pace of change in forensic
science and changing crime types”
Figure 9: Stakeholder impacts – Option 3
Option 4
Victim
“I continue to receive the same local response from
my police force”
“The officer had a suspect within a couple of days,
which is much better than I was expecting. This
makes me feel safer that the person responsible has
been caught”
Police Officer
“The ident results for marks and DNA are now very
efficient , I get results in a matter of hours”
“It’s frustrating that some CSIs can’t come to some
priority scenes because they are aligned to a
different force”
CSI
“I have access to some great rapid technology at the
scene, it means I can gain matches at the scene,
which helps me to prioritise exhibit collection and
support police with their leads quicker. It would be
great if colleagues across the border had this too”
“I get frustrated that ways of working between forces
are so different; it makes no sense and it makes me
far less effective in being able to work outside of the
force’s border”
Forensic practitioner
“The move to super-regions has meant that we can
start to really focus on digital forensics and
processing digital evidence in a wider range of
cases, which is a big improvement on what we used
to be able to do in force”
“Our cost for accreditation has dramatically reduced
from only needing to be accredited within the region”
“Dissemination of best practice between regions is
limited, and I worry that we are heading in different
directions, which will make future co-operation
increasingly difficult ”
“There is a lot of inconsistency in how CSIs and front
line staff use the service and deliver submissions,
which sometimes causes inefficiencies. It would be
great if we could be more consistent”
Chief Officer
“Our forensic delivery structure doesn’t align with the
latest police reform thinking, which makes it harder
to support important initiatives effectively”
“I hear of great things happening with digital
forensics in other regions, but worry that they aren’t
finding their way to our force”
Figure 10: Stakeholder impacts – Option 4
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Option 5
Victim
“I receive a quicker response from my local police
force, compared to how it used to be”
“I was relieved that my phone didn’t need to be
taken to collect evidence, this was taken from my
mobile at the time”
“I was able to find out quickly and easily the
progress of my case whenever I wanted, without
having to contact the police directly”
Police Officer
“I was able to apprehend the suspect close to the
scene because of the speed that the forensic
information was supplied, which was almost
immediate”
“Receipt of much earlier identifications enables
me to focus on priority lines of enquiry, and it is
safer for me because I can perform risk
assessments on suspects”
“The speed with which we can process cases
through to the CPS has improved dramatically
now the processes have been streamlined. We
seem to be getting more early pleas”
“The availability of national forensic intelligence
helps me not only understand crime patterns but
also solve individual cases more quickly”
“Forensic services available at weekends has
helped shorten the time needed to resolve cases”
CSI
“We are now intelligently tasked according to
priorities, our skills, location, availability and
workload. We are doing a better job for the public,
we are more productive and the work is more
rewarding”.
“I have consistent access to up to date technology
to help me digitise and process most evidence at
the scene. This is standard for all CSIs now”
“There is more opportunity to learn new skills in
digital forensics, so I can keep my skills current”
Forensic practitioner
“We have a larger, efficient digital forensic
capability now which means we can tackle new
crime types, which seem to be on the increase,
much more effectively”
“We can now offer a 24x7 forensic service, since
we are part of one virtual service; so we know we
are providing forensic evidence as soon as is
possible”
“I can look forward to a career in cutting-edge
forensic science, using the latest technologies
and supporting police forces nationally”
“I believe that, through our central forum, forensic
professionals are much more engaged and
influential in the direction of forensic services in
the UK”
“Our relationships with FSPs are now handled by
a central commercial team, allowing me to focus
more on delivering high quality services to local
forces”
Chief Officer
“I am able to reallocate some of my resources to
address emerging local and national priorities”
“I am confident that, by sharing common
structures and ways of working with other forces,
we are better placed to serve local people and
evolve our capabilities rapidly and effectively to
meet future threats to society”
“By sharing resources, especially in specialist
areas, we have been able to reduce forensic
service costs significantly”
“Our structure and ways of working are highly
flexible and we are well placed to support the
wider policing reforms that we anticipate”
Figure 11: Stakeholder impacts – Option 5
From this, it is evident that Option 5 (Full
integration) has the greatest positive impact for
stakeholders and, from a policing perspective,
offers the strongest foundation for service
development and the support of future reforms.
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QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT
INTRODUCTION
The quantitative assessment of the Economic
Case is presented over several sections, as
outlined below:
The baseline description of Option 1, which is
the ‘do nothing’ within the Economic Case,
identifying:
Applicable transition costs
Business As Usual (BAU) costs and
assumptions
Option 2-5 quantitative assessment detailing:
The transition costs for each option
The impacts on the BAU costs
Quantified benefits associated with each
option
A summary of NPV / ROI calculations across
the options
Optimism bias applied to the options
Sensitivity analysis undertaken against the
options
The following points apply to this section of the
Economic Case:
A conservative approach has been taken in the
quantitative assessment across:
o Cost estimating
o Benefits definition
o Variable and assumption
definition
As such the quantitative assessment reflects a
conservative outlook of cost, risk and benefits.
This is particularly true for Option 5, where the
realisation of cashable benefits has been
intentionally staggered, until such time as a
detailed schedule emerges.
The data sources used in the economic
assessment are detailed in Appendix B
The assessment presented within this
Economic Case has been calculated based on
an assumed 10-year funding cycle, herein the
‘appraisal period’.
Numerous variables have been defined and
assumptions made, to support the quantitative
analysis, including:
Global variables and assumptions that
support each option (including the ‘do
nothing’)
Demand projections per crime type
Assumptions on:
Fingerprint Bureaux
Traditional Labs
Digital Labs (including the tiered digital
model)
FSPs
CSIs
Other staff
These variables and assumptions are
documented in the Transforming Forensics
Economic Case Assumptions and Variables45
document.
OPTION 1 – MAINTAIN SERVICE CONTINUITY / THE ‘DO NOTHING’
Option 1 ‘Maintain Service Continuity’ represents
the ‘do nothing’ option for the Transforming
Forensics programme and assumes that forces
will manage the migration from IDENT1 to HOB
themselves. It is used as a baseline for
comparison of the costs and benefits of Options 2
to 5 in the Economic Case.
The total costs for this option are estimated at
£3,699.50M in discounted terms over the
appraisal period (2017/18 – 2026/27).
These costs have been estimated based on data
captured from force visits carried out between
December 2016 and January 2017, and
questionnaire returns across 24 forces in
England, Wales and Northern Ireland, with
additional data from BTP and the NCA, to
determine spend on forensics, volumes of activity,
standard operating procedures and outcomes.
The data collected has been supplemented by
data from the Home Office ADR, a 2016 digital
forensics questionnaire sent to all forces in
England, Wales Northern Ireland, BTP and NCA,
FMIT, Home Office Science - CAST and CIPFA.
5 Transforming Forensics Economic Case
Assumptions and Variables
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These data sets have been used to estimate total
forensic spend for each force, using a multiple
linear regression analysis extrapolation approach
to estimate data for each of the forces not
included in the sample. This results in a total
spend figure across the 44 police forces in
England, Wales and Northern Ireland, as well as
BTP and the NCA of c£363.35M in 2016/17. This
excludes spend on Information Technology (IT)
devices and software, which has been estimated
as a further cost of £20.50M
This total figure represents the “as-is” state of
police forensics spend and encompasses spend
on staff, estates, consumables, IT and software,
logistics and training across:
Traditional forensics:
Finger print bureaux
Finger print Enhancement Laboratories
Footwear bureaux
DNA and Drugs laboratories
Digital forensics from forensic department
budgets and non-forensic departments such
as:
High Tech Crime Units (HTCUs)
Cyber Crime Units (CCUs)
Counter-Terrorism and Intelligence.
Forensic Service Providers (FSPs)
Crime Scene Investigation (CSI)
Logistics
Leadership and management
Quality management, including accreditation
Commercial
IT Service Management (ITSM)
Future costs have been extrapolated from the “as-
is” data, taking account of:
predicted trends in forensic
submissions/exhibits provided by the Home
Office and the resources required to meet
these volumes;
expected improvements in the accuracy of the
new HOB strategic matcher for fingerprints.
The investment costs required for forces to
migrate to HOB have also been captured within
the future costs. These future costs are
summarised in Figure 1 below:
Figure 12: Extrapolated Forensic Spend across Forces in England, Wales, PSNI, BTP & NCA
Whilst there are numerous initiatives and proof of
concepts currently in progress, Option 1 assumes
that FSUs will continue under ‘business as usual’
with no uptake of emerging technologies like rapid
finger print and rapid DNA matching (except for
the Met and Greater Manchester Police that have
already contracted for rapid Fingerprint
technology, therefore these costs have been
included).
The known improvements delivered through the
wider HOB implementation have been included
and are summarised in the table below. The costs
associated with these improvements have also
been factored in to the ‘do nothing’ baseline:
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Area Outcome Qualitative Benefits
CASEWORK
FP Bureaux
upgrade
IDENT1 is switched out for the
HOB Strategic Matcher
Implementation of new Matcher
tools, including an improved digital
fingerprint mark up and analysis
capability
Tooling being available via the
force IT systems (not a separate
IDENT1 terminal).
Portal access to tooling to enable
remote working
Service continuity is
maintained and relatively
low disruption compared to
other options
More / more accurate
identifications obtained
resulting from the new
tooling
DNA upgrade Automation of NDU identification
processes
Quicker DNA identifications
Facilitates a reduction in
staff numbers
Enables 24/7 operation –
requiring no staff for
straightforward
identifications
Figure 13: Anticipated Outcomes and Benefits Associated with the ‘do nothing’
It is assumed that the costs for traditional
forensics will decline over time due to the
predicted decrease in traditional forensics
submissions/exhibits (which drive costs)
The anticipated rise in digital forensics
submissions/exhibits is anticipated to increase the
overall cost of forensics, as budgets will need to
increase to meet demand under existing
arrangements.
If the current approach to conducting digital
forensics continues, it would be inconceivable that
budgets could mitigate an ever increasing back
log of devices that need examining. Therefore, an
artificial cap on digital spending has been
modelled. Furthermore, it is acknowledged that
owing to a lack of a coherent process for
capturing digital forensics performance data, the
true spend is believed to be significantly greater
than declared.
The digital forensic costs are summarised in
Figure 3 below:
£-
£20
£40
£60
£80
£100
£120
£140
£160
£180
2015/16 2017/18 2019/20 2021/22 2023/24 2025/26
Millio
ns
Cost of Digital Forensics in England, Wales and NI
Digital Forensics Cost Cost of Backlog
Figure 14: Extrapolated Cost of Digital Forensics
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The ‘do nothing’ option perpetuates the current
fragmented approach to forensic delivery and
while there may be some piecemeal
improvements, such as further collaboration of
forensic delivery between forces, these have not
been included in the Option 1 estimate.
OPTION 2 – UTILISING ENABLERS
The table below summarises the main transition /
change areas associated with Option 2 and the
associated outcomes with anticipated benefits.
Text in italics represents additional outcomes and
benefits for this option that are not present in
Option 1, for the associated area:
Area Outcome Qualitative Benefits
NON-CASEWORK
Improved
coordination
between
forces
A small number of individuals
resourced to support coordination
between forces in the areas of
R&D, Marketplace, Quality
Management, Forensics Expertise
and Policy
Implementation of collaboration and
knowledge sharing tools
Improved knowledge
sharing
Reduction of duplication of
effort, particularly in areas of
R&D, procurement and
accreditation
Central
enabling
technology
Forensic cloud and single sign on,
providing a single point of access to
multiple forensic systems (including
forensic case management
systems, imaging and the National
Footwear Database)
Enables more efficient
working through ease of use
of IT and sharing of data
Project and
programme
delivery
Centrally managed programme
delivery, PMO and business
change, to manage the delivery of
the change associated with the
Fingerprint Bureaux
Projects and programmes
delivered right first time in
the most efficient way
Change is adopted with
minimum disruption
CASEWORK
FP Bureaux
upgrade
IDENT1 is switched out for the
HOB Strategic Matcher
Implementation of new matcher
tools, including an improved digital
fingerprint mark up and analysis
capability
Tooling being available via the
force IT systems, not a separate
IDENT1 terminal.
Portal access to tooling to enable
remote working
Common FP process implemented
across all FP Bureaux
Service continuity is
maintained and relatively
low disruption compared to
other options
More / more accurate
identifications obtained
resulting from the new
tooling
Common working practices
facilitate continual service
improvement and minimise
the change effort required
Enable FP Bureaux to
distribute workload to meet
capacity spikes, out of hours
working (24x7), and
manage large scale DR
scenarios
Figure 15: Anticipated Outcomes and Benefits Associated with Option 2
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The following provides a summary of the key
costs and benefits associated with Option 2, over
the appraisal period – all of these figures are
discounted:
The forensic delivery costs and IT costs are
£3,672.54M, representing a saving of £26.95M
against the ‘do nothing’ baseline, because of:
Savings expected from standardising
fingerprint processing across forces.
Savings resulting from streamlining the
approach to implementing the HOB
changes across forces via a business
change programme.
The additional investment costs required are
£7.54M
The additional technical delivery costs are
£18.52M
The total costs for Option 2 are therefore
£3,698.60M
The monetised benefits associated with Option
2 are:
The number of exhibit processing days
saved in SSUs (as a result of implementing
common Fingerprint practices), which
results in a £80.73M benefit to police
investigations
The resultant Economic NPV for Option 2 is
£81.63M over the appraisal period
The table on the following page summarises this
data, and presents the NPV in both discounted
and undiscounted terms for Option 2.
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Option 2 (all values in £M)
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
FY 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27
Discount Rate 1.00 0.97 0.93 0.90 0.87 0.84 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.73 Totals
Un
dis
co
un
ted
Forensic Delivery Costs 384.36 393.53 412.20 412.17 412.17 412.17 412.17 412.17 412.17 412.17 4075.30
Existing IT Delivery Costs 21.60 20.02 19.51 19.51 19.51 19.51 19.51 19.51 19.51 19.51 197.66
Investment Costs 4.17 3.21 0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.66
Add. Tech. Delivery Costs 0.00 2.73 4.04 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 2.12 21.62
Total Costs 410.12 419.50 436.02 433.80 433.80 433.80 433.80 433.80 433.80 433.80 4302.25
Financial NPV -0.75 -2.34 0.35 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 0.63 1.65
Financial ROI 1.06
Benefits 0.00 0.00 12.16 12.16 12.16 12.16 12.16 12.16 12.16 12.16 97.24
Economic NPV -0.75 -2.34 12.50 12.78 12.78 12.78 12.78 12.78 12.78 12.78 98.89
Economic ROI 4.38
Dis
co
un
ted
Forensic Delivery Costs 384.36 380.22 384.79 371.76 359.19 347.04 335.30 323.96 313.01 302.42 3502.05
Existing IT Delivery Costs 21.60 19.35 18.21 17.59 17.00 16.42 15.87 15.33 14.81 14.31 170.49
Investment Costs 4.17 3.11 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.54
Add. Tech. Delivery Costs 0.00 2.64 3.77 1.91 1.85 1.79 1.73 1.67 1.61 1.56 18.52
Total Costs 410.12 405.31 407.03 391.26 378.03 365.25 352.90 340.96 329.43 318.29 3698.60
Financial NPV -0.75 -2.26 0.32 0.57 0.55 0.53 0.51 0.49 0.48 0.46 0.90
Financial ROI 1.03
Benefits 0.00 0.00 11.35 10.96 10.59 10.23 9.89 9.55 9.23 8.92 80.73
Economic NPV -0.75 -2.26 11.67 11.53 11.14 10.76 10.40 10.05 9.71 9.38 81.63
Economic ROI 4.13
Figure 16: Option 2 quantitative assessment summary
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OPTION 3 – MAXIMISE THE NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE
The table below summarises the main transition /
change areas associated with Option 3 and the
associated outcomes with anticipated benefits.
Text in italics represents additional outcomes and
benefits for this option, that are not present in
Options 1 and 2, for the associated area.
Area Outcome Qualitative Benefits
NON-CASEWORK
Improved
coordination
between
forces
Teams in place to support
coordination between forces in the
areas of R&D, Marketplace, Quality
Management, Forensic Expertise
and Policy.
Implementation of collaboration
and knowledge sharing tools
Improved knowledge sharing
Reduction of duplication of
effort, particularly in areas of
R&D, procurement and
accreditation
Enabling
services
SMEs to set up a centre of
excellence around skills,
experience and training
Dedicated resource to support
forces with the accreditation
challenge, supported by a Quality
Management System (QMS)
Resources to capture the status of
R&D work in progress, as well as a
pipeline plan of desired work
Centrally provided support on
procurement, facilitated by a
procurement portal, to deliver
enabling:
o Systems, e.g. work
management, tasking;
o Devices, e.g. RapidDNA,
RapidFP, Rapid Footwear,
DF kiosks, DF Triage tools,
digital scene capture tools;
o Infrastructure, e.g. common
mobile platforms, telecoms
connectivity
Uses expertise centrally for
the benefit of all, whilst
minimising effort
Drives the adoption of
innovation to more effectively
address current and future
forensic needs
Drives consistency across
forces in the approach to
delivering forensic casework
Enables a more focused
approach to delivering R&D
by the forces
Supports prioritisation of
work
Central
enabling
technology
Forensic cloud and single sign on,
providing a single point of access to
multiple forensic systems (including
forensic case management
systems, imaging and the National
Footwear Database)
Oversee specification and delivery
of supporting technology and
infrastructure, e.g. devices, apps on
devices, APIs
Enables more efficient
working through ease of use
of IT and sharing of data
Enables new capability for
users
Project and
programme
delivery
Centrally managed programme
delivery, PMO and business
change, to manage delivery of the
change associated with the FP
Bureaux and enabling services
Projects and programmes
delivered right first time in the
most efficient way
Change is adopted with
minimum disruption
Figure 17: Anticipated Outcomes and Benefits Associated with Option 3
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The following provides a summary of the key
costs and benefit attributes associated with
Option 3, over the appraisal period – all of these
figures are discounted:
The forensic delivery costs and IT costs are
£3,631.53M, representing a decrease of
£67.97M against the ‘do nothing’ baseline,
because of:
Increased savings expected in digital FSP
spend due to better co-ordination of
marketplace
Increased savings expected from collective
kit and consumables purchasing for CSIs
The additional investment costs required are
£8.32M
The additional technical delivery costs are
£92.73M
The total costs for Option 3 are therefore
£3,732.57M
The monetised benefits associated with Option
3 are £144.25M
The number of exhibit processing days
saved in SSUs (as a result of implementing
common finger print practices)
The additional number of exhibit processing
days saved in SSUs (as a result of rapid
Fingerprint and DNA technology available
to more forces)
These lead to efficiencies in police
investigations
The resultant Economic NPV for Option 3
is £111.17M over the appraisal period
The table on the following page summarises this
data, and presents the NPV in both discounted
and undiscounted terms for Option 3.
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Option 3 (all values in £M)
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
FY 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27
Discount Rate 1.00 0.97 0.93 0.90 0.87 0.84 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.73 Totals
Un
dis
co
un
ted
Forensic Delivery Costs 384.36 393.53 409.56 405.98 405.98 405.98 405.98 405.98 405.98 405.98 4029.32
Existing IT Delivery Costs 21.60 19.98 19.03 19.03 19.03 19.03 19.03 19.03 19.03 19.03 193.81
Investment Costs 4.44 3.61 0.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.47
Add. Tech. Delivery Costs 0.00 18.99 15.03 9.21 9.21 12.47 10.84 10.84 10.84 10.84 108.26
Total Costs 410.40 436.11 444.03 434.22 434.22 437.48 435.85 435.85 435.85 435.85 4339.85
Financial NPV -1.03 -18.95 -7.66 0.21 0.21 -3.05 -1.42 -1.42 -1.42 -1.42 -35.95
Financial ROI 0.69
Benefits 0.00 0.00 13.41 13.41 13.41 27.43 27.43 27.43 27.43 27.43 177.40
Economic NPV -1.03 -18.95 5.76 13.62 13.62 24.38 26.01 26.01 26.01 26.01 141.45
Economic ROI 2.21
Dis
co
un
ted
Forensic Delivery Costs 384.36 380.22 382.33 366.17 353.79 341.83 330.27 319.10 308.31 297.88 3464.25
Existing IT Delivery Costs 21.60 19.31 17.76 17.16 16.58 16.02 15.48 14.96 14.45 13.96 167.28
Investment Costs 4.44 3.49 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.32
Add. Tech. Delivery Costs 0.00 18.35 14.03 8.31 8.03 10.50 8.82 8.52 8.23 7.95 92.73
Total Costs 410.40 421.36 414.50 391.64 378.40 368.35 354.56 342.57 330.99 319.80 3732.57
Financial NPV -1.03 -18.31 -7.15 0.19 0.18 -2.57 -1.16 -1.12 -1.08 -1.04 -33.08
Financial ROI 0.67
Benefits 0.00 0.00 12.52 12.10 11.69 23.10 22.32 21.56 20.83 20.13 144.25
Economic NPV -1.03 -18.31 5.37 12.29 11.87 20.53 21.16 20.44 19.75 19.09 111.17
Economic ROI 2.10
Figure 18: Option 3 quantitative assessment summary
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OPTION 4 – AGGREGATE FORENSIC SERVICES
The table below summarises the main transition /
change areas associated with Option 4 and the
associated outcomes with anticipated benefits.
Text in italics represents additional outcomes and
benefits for this option, for the associated area,
that are not present in Options 1-3, for the
associated area:
Area Outcome Qualitative Benefits
NON-CASEWORK
Central
enabling
technology
Note: NOT
limited to
back-end
services
Forensic cloud and single sign on,
providing a single point of access to
multiple forensic systems (including
forensic case management
systems, imaging and the National
Footwear Database)
Oversee specification and delivery
of supporting technology and
infrastructure, e.g. devices, apps on
devices, APIs
A national forensic portal to support
access to multiple forensic systems
including digital forensic image and
video processing, scene
reconstruction services, and more
flexible access to national data
services like the National Footwear
Database
Enables more efficient
working through ease of use
of IT and sharing of data
Enables new capability for
users
Enables staff to gain access
to wider sets of information
from one place to improve
efficiency in delivery
Capability
development
Note: LIMITED
to back-end
services
Introduction of new capability at the super-
regional level:
A training capability will be
established that will only provide
training on the back-end services
Similarly an R&D capability will be
set up to investigate opportunities
as captured in the R&D pipeline
register, but in areas of the back-
end services only
Delivers alignment and
consistency in working
practices for back-end
services
Fewer training centres
needing to make changes
when top down direction is
provided
Fewer forces delivering
R&D separately in an
uncoordinated manner
CASEWORK
FP Bureaux
upgrade
IDENT1 is switched out for the
HOB Strategic Matcher
Implementation of new matcher
tools, including an improved digital
fingerprint mark up and analysis
capability
Tooling being available via the
force IT systems, not a separate
IDENT1 terminal.
Portal access to tooling to enable
remote working
Consolidation of all FP Bureaux
within the super-region, requiring all
staff within the super-region to
Service continuity is
maintained and relatively
low disruption compared to
other options
More / more accurate
identifications obtained
resultant from the new
tooling
Common working practices
to facilitate continual service
improvement and minimise
the change effort required
More cost effective delivery
of out of hours working
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adopt a single common FP process
within the super-region
Consolidation
of back-end
forensic
services in
super-regions
Back end facilities owned by new
super-regions to be realigned to
deliver industrialised quality and
throughput
Experts available to provide scene
support services from the in scope
back-end forensic disciplines
Introduction of fast-labs to provide
Rapid Forensic capability to those
that need them, whilst driving
innovation in the area
Technology need to deliver the
aforementioned services
Delivers back-end casework
services in a more efficient
manner, to reduce the time
to gaining an identification,
including offering a 24/7
service
Quality raised to the highest
performing levels with
consistent service delivery
Focus on meeting the needs
of complex and emerging
crimes
Better use of sunk costs
around labs and equipment
Offers Rapid Forensic
services for time critical
requirements
Improves the victim
experience where Rapid
Forensics is used, by
receiving a result sooner,
with equipment confiscated
for shorter periods of time
Drives innovation around
Rapid Forensics
Consolidation
of identity
resolution
services
Super-region level activity:
Consolidation of Footwear Bureaux
Introduction of Face, Scars / Marks
/ Tattoos and Patterns bureaux
FP Bureaux (covered above)
DNA not in scope for this option
Consistency in how face,
footwear, scars, marks,
tattoos and pattern
matching is provided at a
super-regional level
A wider forensic identity
picture is created to support
investigations.
Enables best practice to be
deployed around the
introduction of new or for
growing forensic disciplines
e.g. Face.
Figure 19: Anticipated Outcomes and Benefits Associated with Option 4
The following provides a summary of the key
costs and benefit attributes associated with
Option 4, over the appraisal period – all of these
figures are discounted:
The forensic delivery costs and IT costs are
£3,258.56M, representing a saving of
£440.93M against the ‘do nothing’ baseline,
because of:
Increased savings expected in digital and
traditional FSP spend due to consolidated
procurement co-ordination
Increased savings expected from collective
kit and consumables purchasing for CSIs
due to consolidated procurement co-
ordination
Staff savings due to consolidation and
increased efficiencies
Savings in premises/accreditation due to
consolidation
Savings in coordination of some logistics
methods
Reduction in the cost of the digital backlog
due to:
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Increased efficiencies
Using the tiered digital model
Improved digital FSP agreements
The additional investment costs required are
£96.86M
The additional technical delivery costs are
£290.71M
The total costs for Option 4 are therefore
£3,646.13M
The monetised benefits associated with Option
4 are £128.52M from:
The number of exhibit processing days
saved in SSUs (as a result of implementing
common practices in all disciplines when
consolidating)
The additional number of exhibit processing
days saved in SSUs (as a result of rapid
fingerprint and DNA technology available to
more forces)
These lead to efficiencies in police
investigations.
The resultant Economic NPV for Option 4 is
£181.88M over the appraisal period
The table on the following page summarises this
data, and presents the NPV in both discounted
and undiscounted terms for Option 4.
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Option 4 (all values in £M)
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
FY 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27
Discount Rate 1.00 0.97 0.93 0.90 0.87 0.84 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.73 Totals
Un
dis
co
un
ted
Forensic Delivery Costs 384.36 396.47 417.81 412.24 412.24 412.24 279.41 279.41 279.41 279.41 3552.97
Existing IT Delivery Costs 21.60 19.73 19.30 19.30 19.30 19.30 16.08 16.08 16.08 16.08 182.84
Investment Costs 6.01 13.04 19.00 15.78 18.27 18.38 7.42 5.72 5.72 0.00 109.35
Add. Tech. Delivery Costs 0.00 62.15 44.88 28.99 28.99 47.71 31.42 31.42 31.42 31.42 338.42
Total Costs 411.97 491.39 500.98 476.31 478.79 497.62 334.33 332.63 332.63 326.91 4183.57
Financial NPV -2.59 -74.23 -64.61 -41.88 -44.37 -63.19 100.10 101.79 101.79 107.52 120.34
Financial ROI 0.69
Benefits 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41.56 41.56 41.56 41.56 166.22
Economic NPV -2.59 -74.23 -64.61 -41.88 -44.37 -63.19 141.66 143.35 143.35 149.07 286.56
Economic ROI 2.21
Dis
co
un
ted
Forensic Delivery Costs 384.36 383.06 390.03 371.81 359.24 347.09 227.30 219.61 212.18 205.01 3099.69
Existing IT Delivery Costs 21.60 19.06 18.02 17.41 16.82 16.25 13.08 12.64 12.21 11.80 158.87
Investment Costs 6.01 12.59 17.74 14.24 15.92 15.47 6.04 4.50 4.35 0.00 96.86
Add. Tech. Delivery Costs 0.00 60.05 41.89 26.15 25.26 40.17 25.56 24.70 23.86 23.06 290.71
Total Costs 411.97 474.77 467.67 429.60 417.24 418.99 271.98 261.45 252.61 239.86 3646.13
Financial NPV -2.59 -71.72 -60.32 -37.77 -38.66 -53.21 81.43 80.01 77.30 78.89 53.36
Financial ROI 0.67
Benefits 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33.81 32.66 31.56 30.49 128.52
Economic NPV -2.59 -71.72 -60.32 -37.77 -38.66 -53.21 115.24 112.67 108.86 109.38 181.88
Economic ROI 1.47
Figure 20: Option 4 quantitative assessment summary
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OPTION 5 – FULL FORENSIC INTEGRATION
The table below summarises the main transition /
change areas associated with Option 5 and the
associated outcomes with anticipated benefits.
Text in italics represents additional outcomes and
benefits for this option, that are not present in
Options 1-4, for the associated area:
Area Outcome Qualitative Benefits
NON-CASEWORK
Enabling
central
services
Ethos of best practices and shared skills / experiences
Dedicated resource to support forces with the accreditation challenge, supported by a Quality Management System (QMS)
Resources to capture the status of R&D work in progress, as well as a pipeline plan of desired work
Centrally provided support on procurement, facilitated by a procurement portal, to deliver enabling:
o Systems, e.g. work management, tasking;
o Devices, e.g. RapidDNA, RapidFP, Rapid Footwear, DF kiosks, DF Triage tools, digital scene capture tools; and,
o Infrastructure, e.g. common mobile platforms, telecoms connectivity
Management to run the service and deliver it to the service levels, identify areas for improvement, and deliver the improvements
Uses expertise centrally for the benefit of all, whilst minimising effort
Drives the adoption of innovation to more effectively address current and future forensic needs
Drives consistency across forces in the approach to delivering forensic casework
Enables a more focused approach to delivering R&D by the forces
Supports prioritisation of work
More effective workforce from access to the knowledge needed
Clear understanding of targets and performance against targets
Delivery of service to within the service level targets
Efficient allocation of areas for reinvestment of savings
Central
enabling
technology
Forensic cloud and single sign on, providing a single point of access to multiple forensic systems (including forensic case management systems, imaging and the National Footwear Database)
Oversee specification and delivery of supporting technology and infrastructure, e.g. devices, apps on devices, APIs
A national forensic portal to support access to multiple forensic systems including digital forensic image and video processing, scene reconstruction services, and more flexible access to national data services like the National Footwear Database
Remote access to scenes via 4G for:
o Multi-channel live video
Enables more efficient working through ease of use of IT and sharing of data
Enables new capability for users
Enables staff to gain access to wider sets of information from one place to improve efficiency in delivery
Better enables products to be tailored for the CJS, such as SFRs and digital casefiles
New tooling enables performance to be measured effectively, hence enabling continual service improvement
Fewer experts needed physically at the scene due to remote access
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streaming o Control of scene
technology
Strategic forensic work management system that features:
o Central record access and storage
o Case workflow and decision support
o Casework reporting for the CJS, e.g. SFRs
o Self-service access for victims for information about their forensic case
Consolidation of forensic databases such as DNA, NABIS and CAID
Minimising delays due to downtime between hand-offs
Better victim experience due to ability to easily understand progress with their forensic case
Capability
development
Introduction of new capability at a
national level:
A training capability will be established that will only provide training on all forensic services
Similarly an R&D capability will be set up to investigate opportunities as captured in the R&D pipeline register
Delivers alignment and consistent in working practices for all forensic services
Fewer training centres needing to make changes when top down direction is provided
Fewer forces delivering R&D separately in an uncoordinated manner
CASEWORK
FP Bureaux
upgrade
IDENT1 is switched out for the HOB Strategic Matcher
Implementation of new matcher tools, including an improved digital fingerprint mark up and analysis capability
Tooling being available via the force IT systems, not a separate IDENT1 terminal.
Portal access to tooling to enable remote working
Consolidation of all FP Bureaux, requiring all staff to adopt a single common FP process
Service continuity is maintained and relatively low disruption compared to other options
More / more accurate identifications obtained resulting from the new tooling
Common working practices facilitate continual service improvement and minimise the change effort required
Enable FP Bureaux to distribute workload to meet capacity spikes, out of hours working (24/7), and manage large scale DR scenarios
Migration to a
single
national
forensics
delivery
operating
model
Rollout of operating model that includes:
A common triage model that meets policing needs across the spectrum from local to international
Back end facilities to be realigned to deliver industrialised quality and throughput
Experts available to provide scene support services for all
Delivers back-end casework services in a more efficient manner, to reduce the time to gaining an identification, including offering a 24/7 service
Quality raised to the highest performing levels with consistent service delivery
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forensic disciplines
Introduction of fastlabs to process rapid casework services
New scene work operating models introduced that incorporate Rapid Forensics, including RapidDNA, RapidFP, RapidFootwear, and DF kiosks at or near the scene
Introduction of a new logistics service
Provision of self-service guidance for those impacted by crime
Services specified to meet the varying needs, i.e. volume crime through complex and emerging crime
Better use of sunk costs around labs and equipment
Offers Rapid Forensics services for time critical requirements, both in hubs and at/near the scene
Improves the victim experience where Rapid Forensics is used, by receiving a result sooner, with equipment confiscated for shorter periods of time
Drives innovation on Rapid Forensics
More cost effective processing of exhibits
Better triage of scene attendance, exhibit collection, forensic development and analysis prioritisation, selection of DF processing type, and data to access from the exhibit
Less time lost through moving exhibits around due to improved logistics
Provides opportunities for improved detections from information provided to people impacted by crime
Consolidation
of identity
resolution
services
National activity to set up the Identity
Resolution Service:
Consolidation of Footwear Bureaux
Introduction of Face, Scars / Marks / Tattoos and Patterns bureaux
FP Bureaux (covered above)
Migration of the DNA identification service (NDU) into the Identity Resolution Service
Consistency in how face, footwear, scars, marks, tattoos and pattern matching is provided
An holistic forensic identity picture is created to support investigations.
Enables best practice to be deployed around the introduction of new or for growing forensic disciplines e.g. Face.
Investigator
process
Investigate the impact of Rapid Forensics on the investigator’s process
Identify changes needed to maximise the benefits to be realised by transforming the forensics domain
INTELLIGENCE
Forensic
intelligence
A national forensic intelligence service set up to identify trends across cases and forensic
Better identification of trends and people networks that occur across
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service disciplines
Tooling to facilitate intelligence acquisition
force boundaries, cases and forensic disciplines
Better identification of emerging threats and needs
Figure 21: Anticipated Outcomes and Benefits Associated with Option 5
The following provides a summary of the key
costs and benefit attributes associated with
Option 5, over the appraisal period – all of these
figures are discounted:
The forensic delivery costs and IT costs are
£3,083.66M, representing a saving of
£615.83M against the ‘do nothing’ baseline,
because of:
Increased savings expected in digital and
traditional FSP spend due to consolidated
procurement co-ordination
Increased savings expected from collective
kit and consumables purchasing for CSIs
due to consolidated procurement co-
ordination
Staff savings due to consolidation &
increased efficiencies
Savings in premises/accreditation due to
consolidation
Savings in coordination of some logistics
vehicles
Reduction in the cost of digital backlog due:
Increased efficiencies
Using the tiered digital model
Improved digital FSP agreements
The additional investment costs required are
£85.21M
The additional technical delivery costs are
£296.46M
The total costs for Option 5 are therefore
£3,465.34M
The monetised benefits associated with Option
5 are £151.97M
A number of exhibit processing days saved
in SSUs (as a result of implementing
common practices in all disciplines when
consolidating)
An additional number of exhibit processing
days saved in SSUs (as a result of rapid
fingerprint and DNA technology available to
more forces)
These lead to efficiencies in police
investigations
Increased CSI productivity - more efficient
and collaborative tasking of CSIs means
that travel time is reduced and more crime
scenes can be attended
The resultant Economic NPV for Option 5 is
£386.13M over the appraisal period
The table on the following page summarises this
data, and presents the NPV in both discounted
and undiscounted terms for Option 5.
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Option 5 (all values in £M)
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
FY 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27
Discount Rate 1.00 0.97 0.93 0.90 0.87 0.84 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.73 Totals
Un
dis
co
un
ted
Forensic Delivery Costs 384.36 393.53 413.77 406.63 388.67 386.93 242.46 242.46 242.46 242.46 3343.72
Existing IT Delivery Costs 21.60 20.04 19.30 19.30 17.73 17.56 14.60 14.60 14.60 14.60 173.90
Investment Costs 6.71 14.50 17.64 12.76 13.18 12.82 8.58 4.80 4.58 0.00 95.58
Add. Tech. Delivery Costs 0.00 62.60 47.66 36.04 26.66 44.86 31.68 31.68 31.68 31.68 344.54
Total Costs 412.67 490.67 498.37 474.73 446.23 462.17 297.32 293.54 293.32 288.74 3957.74
Financial NPV -3.29 -73.51 -62.00 -40.30 -11.80 -27.74 137.11 140.89 141.11 145.69 346.16
Financial ROI 1.79
Benefits 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.74 7.43 44.09 44.09 44.09 44.09 194.53
Economic NPV -3.29 -73.51 -62.00 -40.30 -1.06 -20.31 181.20 184.98 185.20 189.78 540.69
Economic ROI 2.23
Dis
co
un
ted
Forensic Delivery Costs 384.36 380.22 386.26 366.75 338.70 325.79 197.24 190.57 184.13 177.90 2931.91
Existing IT Delivery Costs 21.60 19.36 18.02 17.41 15.45 14.79 11.87 11.47 11.08 10.71 151.75
Investment Costs 6.71 14.01 16.47 11.51 11.49 10.79 6.98 3.78 3.48 0.00 85.21
Add. Tech. Delivery Costs 0.00 60.49 44.49 32.51 23.23 37.77 25.77 24.90 24.06 23.25 296.46
Total Costs 412.67 474.08 465.23 428.17 388.86 389.13 241.87 230.72 222.75 211.85 3465.34
Financial NPV -3.29 -71.03 -57.87 -36.35 -10.28 -23.36 111.54 110.74 107.16 106.90 234.16
Financial ROI 1.61
Benefits 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.36 6.26 35.87 34.65 33.48 32.35 151.97
Economic NPV -3.29 -71.03 -57.87 -36.35 -0.92 -17.10 147.41 145.39 140.64 139.25 386.13
Economic ROI 2.01
Figure 22: Option 5 quantitative assessment summary
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SUMMARY OF OPTIONS 2 TO 5 - QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS
The summary of the BAU Cost Calculations, per option, is presented below in both discounted and
undiscounted terms. This summary is prior to any optimism bias or sensitivity analysis.
Option 2
Option 3
Undiscounted
£M
Discounted
£M
Undiscounted
£M
Discounted
£M
Forensic Delivery Costs 4075.30 3502.05
4029.32 3464.25
Existing IT Delivery Costs 197.66 170.49
193.81 167.28
Investment Costs 7.66 7.54
8.47 8.32
Add. Tech. Delivery Costs 21.62 18.52
108.26 92.73
Total Costs 4302.25 3698.60
4339.85 3732.57
Financial NPV 1.65 0.90
-35.95 -33.08
Financial ROI 1.06 1.03
0.69 0.67
Benefits 97.24 80.73
177.40 144.25
Economic NPV 98.89 81.63
141.45 111.17
Economic ROI 4.38 4.13
2.21 2.10
Option 4
Option 5
Undiscounted
£M
Discounted
£M
Undiscounted
£M
Discounted
£M
Forensic Delivery Costs 3552.97 3099.69
3343.72 2931.91
Existing IT Delivery Costs 182.84 158.87
173.90 151.75
Investment Costs 109.35 96.86
95.58 85.21
Add. Tech. Delivery Costs 338.42 290.71
344.54 296.46
Total Costs 4183.57 3646.13
3957.74 3465.34
Financial NPV 120.34 53.36
346.16 234.16
Financial ROI 1.27 1.14
1.79 1.61
Benefits 166.22 128.52
194.53 151.97
Economic NPV 286.56 181.88
540.69 386.13
Economic ROI 1.64 1.47
2.23 2.01
Figure 23: Summary of Option Costs
Prior to any optimism bias or sensitivity analysis it
is therefore shown that Option 5 presents the best
NPV through the quantitative analysis associated
with the Economic Case.
SUMMARY OF KEY QUALITATIVE BENEFITS
At this point of the assessment it is worth
documenting the significant qualitative benefits
that would be realised as a result of the
implementation of a Transforming Forensics
Programme. These, as well as the anticipated
quantitative benefits, as detailed in this section,
provide a compelling case for transformational
change:
Quicker investigations as a consequence of
forensic analysis results being returned
quicker.
An increase in the number of detections due to
results being available more expediently.
Increase in guilty pleas, reducing resource and
cost intensive non- guilty pleas and associated
impacts to policing.
This has the potential to reduce
submissions where earlier guilty pleas
mean less additional evidence needs to be
processed.
Criminals are more likely to plead guilty
when faced with rapid forensic results.
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Quicker apprehension of criminals resulting in
fewer offences committed by reoffenders.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
The Green Book Supplementary Guidance on
Public Sector Business Cases6 states that
“Sensitivity analysis is fundamental to appraisal. It
is used to test the vulnerability of options to
unavoidable future uncertainties and to test the
robustness of the ranking of the options. It
involves testing the ranking of the options by
changing some of the key assumptions.”
One of the fundamental assumptions made in
defining the baseline positon / ‘do nothing’ (as
described in the Baseline Definition section of this
document) was to include 46 forces within the
modelling activity. Whilst this is a valid assumption
from a modelling perspective and enables side-
by-side comparisons / evaluations to be made
throughout the option assessment, in reality it is
unlikely that all forces would form together as a
‘cohort’ and participate in Transforming Forensics.
In addition to the above, as described in the
Quantitative Analysis section, numerous
assumptions and variables were defined in order
to model the options as presented in the
Economic Case. These assumptions and
variables are defined in the Transforming
Forensics Economic Case Assumptions and
Variables7 document.
Given that these assumptions and variables are
key to the analysis presented, it is important to
subject them to sensitivity analysis in order to
confirm the viability of each option. Therefore,
eight scenarios were created, upon which the
options were analysed:
1. High level participation of 46 forces
against a baseline set of assumptions and
variables.
2. High level participation of 46 forces
against a pessimistic set of assumptions
and variables.
6https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/
uploads/attachment_data/file/469317/green_book_guidance_public_sector_business_cases_2015_update.pdf 7 Transforming Forensics Economic Case
Assumptions and Variable
3. High level participation of 45 forces (as
per item 1 above, but excluding the Met
Police) against a baseline set of
assumptions and variables.
4. High level participation of 45 forces (as
per item 1 above, but excluding the Met
Police) against a pessimistic set of
assumptions and variables.
5. Medium level participation of 28 forces
against a baseline set of assumptions and
variables.
6. Medium level participation of 28 forces
against a pessimistic set of assumptions
and variables.
7. Low level participation of 20 forces
against a baseline set of assumptions and
variables.
8. Low level participation of 20 forces
against a pessimistic set of assumptions
and variables.
The Economic NPV for the sensitivity analysis, as
defined by these scenarios, is summarised in the
table on the next page.
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Option 2
- C Option 2
- P Option 3
- C Option 3
- P Option 4
- C Option 4
- P Option 5
- C Option 5
- P
46 Forces
81.63 74.55 111.17 101.03 181.88 103.23 386.13 272.62
45 Forces
75.17 69.41 106.61 98.36 103.08 31.52 276.98 175.64
28 Forces
44.45 41.82 70.16 66.40 -22.76 -63.64 104.69 32.04
20 Forces
32.55 31.14 45.19 43.18 -29.29 -60.46 79.44 18.79
* All NPV Values in discounted Terms
Figure 24: Summary of the Sensitivity Analysis
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS – CONCLUSIONS
The following key conclusions can be drawn from
this analysis, broken down per option below:
Option 5 presents the strongest economic NPV
by a significant margin in the majority of
scenarios.
The economic NPV for Option 5 drops in the
28 and 20 force scenarios against the
pessimistic variables, therefore the in the FBC
phase:
the selected force cohort should be re-
modelled against this baseline, to confirm
the economic NPV and assumptions
against it
particular attention should be paid to the
size and mix of the forces within the cohort,
as the economic NPV will vary against
these factors
Option 4 presents a reasonable NPV in the 46
force scenario, but the NPV quickly diminishes
to a negative number as the cohort size drops.
On this basis, with anything less than a full
take up of Option 4 across forces, the benefits
diminish significantly.
Option 2 and option 3 remain positive across
the force cohort scenarios, however these are
relatively low positive values when compared
to Options 4 and 5.
OPTIMISM BIAS
In all aspects of the Economic Case a
conservative approach has been taken to
modelling and assessing the data, this includes
(but is not limited):
Creating realistic design options that are
underpinned by realistic assumptions and
drivers (e.g. current technology or technology
that lays within near term development road
maps).
Approaching the extrapolation of forensic
spend in a conservative manner, from which
the ‘do nothing’ and option baselines were
established.
Only claiming cashable benefits for items that
can be defined with certainty.
Time phasing the delivery of cashable and
non-cashable benefits such that a benefit is
only realised in the financial year after its
delivery project has completed.
However, whilst the sensitivity analysis tested the
vulnerability of the options with regards to the
potential make-up of forces within the cohort, no
adjustment was made to the forensic delivery
costs or the delivery / technical costs inherent
within the options.
The supplementary guidance to the HM Treasury
Green Book Guidance8 states that “there is a
demonstrated, systematic, tendency for project
appraisers to be overly optimistic. To redress this
tendency appraisers should make explicit,
empirically based adjustments to the estimates of
a project’s costs, benefits, and duration”.
8
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/191507/Optimism_bias.pdf
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Therefore, the HM Treasury Green Book
Guidance on Optimism Bias Upper Guidance for
Equipment / Development and Outsourcing
Projects (table 4 in the referenced article) was
used as a template against which delivery and
BAU costs were assessed. The completed table,
detailing the optimism bounds used against
Option 5, is detailed in Appendix E.
The following optimism bounds were applied to
the costs and benefits associated with Option 5:
Investment costs increased by 52% (i.e. the cost
to deliver Option 5 was increased by 52%). This
potential increase in cost was assessed as being
predominantly driven by:
1. the design complexity of Option 5;
2. the large number of stakeholders
involved;
3. the potential political angle associated
with Option 5.
The increase to the investment costs was applied
over the duration of the appraisal period.
Applying these bounds to Option 5 results in
updated totals which can be seen on the next
page. In total £198.47M, in discounted terms, is
added to the delivery cost of the programme,
owing to the optimism bias calculations.
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Option 5 (all values in £M)
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
FY 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27
Discount Rate 1.00 0.97 0.93 0.90 0.87 0.84 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.73 Totals
Un
dis
co
un
ted
Forensic Delivery Costs 384.36 393.53 413.77 406.63 388.67 386.93 242.46 242.46 242.46 242.46 3343.72
Existing IT Delivery Costs 21.60 20.04 19.30 19.30 17.73 17.56 14.60 14.60 14.60 14.60 173.90
Investment Costs 10.20 22.04 26.81 19.39 20.03 19.48 13.04 7.30 6.97 0.00 145.28
Add. Tech. Delivery Costs 0.00 95.16 72.44 54.78 40.52 68.18 48.16 48.16 48.16 48.16 523.70
Total Costs 416.16 530.77 532.32 500.10 466.94 492.16 318.25 312.51 312.18 305.21 4186.60
Financial NPV -6.78 -113.61 -95.95 -65.67 -32.51 -57.73 116.17 121.92 122.25 129.22 117.30
Financial ROI 1.18
Benefits 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.74 7.43 44.09 44.09 44.09 44.09 194.53
Economic NPV -6.78 -113.61 -95.95 -65.67 -21.78 -50.30 160.26 166.01 166.34 173.31 311.83
Economic ROI 1.47
Dis
co
un
ted
Forensic Delivery Costs 384.36 380.22 386.26 366.75 338.70 325.79 197.24 190.57 184.13 177.90 2931.91
Existing IT Delivery Costs 21.60 19.36 18.02 17.41 15.45 14.79 11.87 11.47 11.08 10.71 151.75
Investment Costs 10.20 21.29 25.03 17.49 17.46 16.40 10.61 5.74 5.29 0.00 129.52
Add. Tech. Delivery Costs 0.00 91.94 67.63 49.41 35.31 57.41 39.17 37.85 36.57 35.33 450.62
Total Costs 416.16 512.82 496.93 451.06 406.91 414.38 258.90 245.63 237.07 223.94 3663.81
Financial NPV -6.78 -109.76 -89.57 -59.23 -28.33 -48.61 94.51 95.83 92.84 94.81 35.69
Financial ROI 1.06
Benefits 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.36 6.26 35.87 34.65 33.48 32.35 151.97
Economic NPV -6.78 -109.76 -89.57 -59.23 -18.98 -42.35 130.37 130.48 126.32 127.16 187.66
Economic ROI 1.32
Figure 25: Cost and Benefit Breakdown for Option 5 Optimism Bias Results
This breakdown shows that, even with significant bias loaded into the investment and running costs associated with Option 5, the option still returns a positive, albeit
diminished, NPV over the appraisal period.
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QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT
INTRODUCTION
To obtain a qualitative evaluation of the options
proposed within the OBC, the Transforming
Forensics project team engaged with the Forensic
Leaders at the Forensic Leaders Conference
(FLC), held at the College of Policing, Ryton on
the 14th March 2017.
The OBC project team developed a questionnaire
which queried the leaders on which option was
best positioned to deliver the benefits. Each of the
options was presented to the Forensic Leaders,
who were then asked to score the options in their
questionnaire response.
The FLC consisted of circa 45 key forensic
personnel from various forces across England,
Wales and Northern Ireland. The approach to
undertaking this assessment, and the responses
received, are detailed within this section.
APPROACH
A questionnaire was developed by the
Transforming Forensics team and consisted of 22
strategic questions to assess each of the options
based on the following four categories. These
categories are tied to the key programme benefits
that it is anticipated the options shall deliver:
1. Delivery – does the option achieve the
programme’s goals?
2. Strategic fit – does the option support
police and government stakeholders’
strategies?
3. Feasibility – can the option be
implemented in a timely an acceptable
manner?
4. Acceptability – Is the option acceptable
(to key stakeholders)?
Figure 26: Questionnaire template embedded & snapshot of the questionnaire
The Forensic Leaders were walked through each
question such that they fully understood what was
being asked and its relevance to the anticipated
benefits and the options.
A scoring of 0 to 100 was applied to each
question, an entry of 0 and 100 was mandatory
against at least one of the options for each
question (0 = the option does not address the
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question, 100 = the option addresses the
question). The Forensic Leaders were then free to
apply any score between 0 and 100 to the
remaining options.
At the end of the session the questionnaire
responses were collated such that an assessment
on the options could be undertaken.
ANALYSIS
Circa 35 responses were received from the FLC
attendees. These answers were then aggregated
and weighted such that an overall score could be
formed. The answers were weighted for the
following reasons:
Importance was placed on questions that
related to the scope and content of each
option, e.g. whether each option best enabled:
Service delivery
Adoption of regulation / accreditation
standards
Future proofing
Conversely Less emphasis was placed on
items that would not be (or become) the direct
accountability of the FLC forum, e.g.:
The deliverability of the option
The support the option provided to non-law
users
The acceptability of the option to wider /
external stakeholders.
From this, the below summary table was
produced:
Question - is this option / does it deliver Option
1 Option
2 Option
3 Option
4 Option
5 Weight
Transformational Q1 0.3 14.8 45.8 69.5 100.0 8.0%
Local & Forces Priorities Q2 40.9 55.2 68.6 63.4 45.9 2.0%
Forensic Support Q3 14.5 33.4 60.4 76.1 73.9 4.0%
Access to the service Q4 19.1 34.1 59.8 65.7 83.2 4.0%
Forensic Intelligence Q5 0.7 26.6 49.0 76.2 94.1 6.0%
Strategy formulation & service development Q6 4.7 23.3 55.3 79.7 94.0 8.0%
Regulation/Accreditation & standards Q7 8.8 27.2 51.0 78.4 89.3 9.0%
Future Proof Q8 0.0 23.8 47.5 75.3 96.3 8.0%
Service resilience Q9 17.2 31.0 53.0 71.0 73.0 6.0%
Staff Recruitment & Retention Q10 32.3 45.7 53.2 64.7 53.0 3.0%
Support FSP Market Q11 19.7 28.8 52.8 76.7 73.7 6.0%
Support CSJ & Courts service Q12 28.0 36.5 58.7 71.7 72.3 4.0%
Support non-law users Q13 11.0 33.0 52.2 76.7 92.0 2.0%
Fit Published Strategies Q14 17.2 39.0 50.7 77.1 80.0 6.0%
Build long term capability Q15 1.7 26.5 58.3 81.8 91.3 8.0%
Fit with wider policing Q16 27.9 37.9 68.3 69.2 55.0 4.0%
Can changes be implemented Q17 73.7 71.7 67.8 50.0 17.3 2.0%
Practical to manage & deliver Q18 56.7 66.7 72.3 53.1 37.2 2.0%
Acceptable to external stakeholders Q19 56.3 61.6 77.7 63.1 25.2 2.0%
Acceptable to internal stakeholders Q20 73.9 73.0 79.3 47.7 9.6 2.0%
Acceptable to industry/ext suppliers Q21 28.5 50.1 66.4 70.9 71.4 2.0%
Acceptable to wider stakeholders Q22 10.7 41.9 63.8 79.0 80.7 2.0%
Weighted Average
16.2 33.2 55.9 72.9 78.4
Figure 27: Summary Responses from the FLC Community
The method for calculating the weighted average
was to take the average response per question
by, adding the scores (ranging from 0 to 100) and
dividing by the number of responses. A weight %
was applied to each question which would be
multiplied by the average to provide the weighted
average. These weighted averages for each
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question were added up to provide the overall
score for each of the options.
The output of this assessment shows that Option
5 was viewed as the preferred Option by the FLC
forum.
This questionnaire analysis was then re-analysed
for a subset of the FLC attendees. A portion of the
FLC attendees had participated as part of the
Expert Group to support the design of the options
themselves. It is therefore appropriate to assume
that these members had a better understanding of
the options presented (as they had been involved
in their creation).
By re-running the assessment against just the
responses received from the Expert Group
participants, and using the same weighting, the
following results were obtained:
Question - is this option / does it deliver Option
1 Option
2 Option
3 Option
4 Option
5 Weight
Transformational Q1 0.0 15.0 37.8 64.4 100.0 8.0%
Local & Forces Priorities Q2 17.2 44.4 64.4 65.6 72.2 2.0%
Forensic Support Q3 17.2 35.0 56.7 51.1 82.2 4.0%
Access to the service Q4 17.2 30.6 46.7 52.2 90.0 4.0%
Forensic Intelligence Q5 0.0 24.4 48.9 68.9 96.7 6.0%
Strategy formulation & service development Q6 0.0 20.6 44.4 74.4 97.8 8.0%
Regulation/Accreditation & standards Q7 12.8 20.0 51.7 67.2 88.9 9.0%
Future Proof Q8 0.0 14.4 38.9 51.1 100.0 8.0%
Service resilience Q9 12.8 25.0 44.4 61.1 77.8 6.0%
Staff Recruitment & Retention Q10 20.0 34.4 49.4 60.0 63.3 3.0%
Support FSP Market Q11 15.6 26.1 54.4 74.4 77.8 6.0%
Support CSJ & Courts service Q12 8.9 30.6 54.4 70.0 82.2 4.0%
Support non-law users Q13 3.3 48.9 49.4 78.9 98.9 2.0%
Fit Published Strategies Q14 2.2 27.8 50.0 70.6 91.1 6.0%
Build long term capability Q15 0.0 22.8 61.1 70.6 85.6 8.0%
Fit with wider policing Q16 16.7 33.3 66.7 61.7 73.3 4.0%
Can changes be implemented Q17 74.4 83.9 77.2 53.3 21.1 2.0%
Practical to manage & deliver Q18 45.6 59.4 72.2 50.0 47.2 2.0%
Acceptable to external stakeholders Q19 44.4 60.0 84.4 62.2 35.6 2.0%
Acceptable to internal stakeholders Q20 61.1 68.9 84.4 45.6 10.0 2.0%
Acceptable to industry/ext suppliers Q21 25.6 46.7 65.6 69.4 83.3 2.0%
Acceptable to wider stakeholders Q22 6.7 57.8 73.3 77.8 86.7 2.0%
Option
1 Option
2 Option
3 Option
4 Option
5
Weighted Average
12 29 53 65 83
Figure 28: Summary Responses from the FLC community members involved in the definition of the options
This analysis emphasises further the view that
Option 5 is best positioned to deliver against the
anticipated benefits, the views of the Expert
Group participants further reinforces this. Option 5
scored particularly highly on the ‘delivery’ and
‘strategic fit ‘criteria, which is important as these
sections cover the ability of the option to deliver
the programme goals and meet stakeholder
needs. Whilst Option 5 didn’t score as highly on
the feasibility and acceptability criteria, these are
aspects that can be mitigated as the programme
moves towards FBC (as opposed to the inherent
option design, which is fixed).
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COMMERCIAL CONSIDERATIONS
The Forensic Science Strategy9 sets an ambition
for police forces to have a national approach to
forensic science delivery that will provide a more
strategic relationship with the forensic supply
chain. In anticipation of a Transforming Forensics
programme there is already strong momentum at
both regional and sub-regional level.
Recent major contract awards have introduced
new contract models, moving toward managed
service operations framed around broader
partnership working objectives. These
arrangements largely supersede the National
Forensic Framework-based approach of the last
nine years. Some of these deals are based on
well-developed regional structures that are
already creating a strong collaborative platform
within and around the existing National Forensic
Framework Agreements.
Option 5 (Full integration) is identified as offering
the greatest transformational benefit, including:
positively driving value for money through
standardisation, aggregation and collaboration;
maximum influence over the entire internal and
external forensic marketplace;
national adoption of enabling technologies and
toolsets;
creating maximum linkage to positive CJS
outcomes.
The Commercial Case supports the overall option
evaluation approach agreed with stakeholders,
including forensic leaders, and incorporates the
following alongside the standard OBC commercial
content:
current forensic landscape (As Is assessment);
options assessment;
priorities for commercial management action
9 Home Office Forensic Science Strategy, March
2016, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/506652/54493_Cm_9217_Forensic_Science_Strategy_Accessible.pdf
CURRENT FORENSIC LANDSCAPE
The current forensic landscape is summarised in
the situational assessment presented below in the
form of a SWOT analysis.
Further information on the forensic landscape
underpinning the Commercial Case is
incorporated within the main body of the case,
including:
A – Police forensic spend data trends
B – Traditional police forensics spend
C – Police spend on digital forensics
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High Level Situational Assessment (SWOT)
Figure 29: Forensic landscape ‘as-is’ SWOT analysis
T
WS
O
Strengths
Strong collaboration culture amongst forces
Established Marketplace management focus via
the Forensic Marketplace Strategy Group
(FMSG)
Established and highly credible traditional
supply base
Established independent regulator and a
focus on standards
Forensic Science Strategy aspiration
for a national solution and strategic
relationship with market
Weaknesses
Limited competition / new entrants in
Traditional Forensics
Lock in to long term contracts
Fragmented governance across
local / regional / national services
Funding pressure may
constrain Programme initiation
Availability of central skills /
capability to move at pace
Opportunit ies
Traditional versus digital segmentation
creates competition
Emerging and growing market in digital
forensics services
Technology increasingly enables CSI rapid
action
Digital Forensic pilots / demonstrators may be
scaled up
New MPS contract for Digital Forensics open to
all forces
Threats
Forces declaring UDI may undermine
national approach
Internal supply versus market
capability / capacity tension
Funding pressures may
constrain technology investment
Relative attractiveness of non
law enforcement markets
Inertia resists change,
particularly on internal supply market, which is
greater than external supply in monetary terms
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The market structure for traditional forensic
services is largely set, and recorded external
spend has been generally falling in recent years.
Three suppliers dominate both legacy and new
business, with one supplier monopolising. Around
70% of new business is now tied in via recently
awarded long term contracts generally lasting until
2020 – 2024. Barriers to entry are considered
high in relation to quality standards, qualifications
and accreditation, and there appears little
attraction for new entrants, with the possible
exception of a few sub-contractors.
Convergence to any transformational option must
recognise the terms and parameters of existing
contracts, including some significant recent
awards in relation to opportunities to break out.
However, exiting recently-awarded long term
contracts may not be a realistic or viable
expectation in the short to medium term, nor is
there any evidence-based economic rationale, as
yet, to support this approach. Any transformation
plan must therefore not only ensure ongoing value
for money and performance in incumbent
contracts, but also find a way to engage
productively with the incumbent suppliers, working
in and around existing contractual arrangements
in the short to medium term.
These challenges are counterbalanced by a
significant opportunity from which to build a
platform for transformation, based on taking a
holistic “whole system” approach working across
the external supply of traditional forensics, digital
forensics and the internal market of in-house
provision. The fact that major suppliers are
already embracing and investing in new ways of
working under the latest collaboration contracts is
significant. Furthermore, the shift in demand
toward digital forensics represents an opportunity
to re-establish a strong and sustainable
competitive marketplace to support law
enforcement and criminal justice longer term.
For digital forensics, the approach to acquiring
and delivering a service is much less mature, and
offers a significant opportunity to cultivate a more
competitive marketplace strategy. FMSG led
research in 2015 10
indicated little appetite from
forces to become suppliers to other forces using
their respective in-house capabilities. This further
supports the need to work more closely with the
10
Forensic Marketplace Commercial Strategy & Tactical Planning Workshop 18
th February 2015
market to support scaling of national capacity and
capabilities. There is a wider population of both
global and UK-based suppliers in digital forensics,
but it should also be noted that law enforcement is
competing in a much wider industry pool than the
traditional forensics marketplace. Many of these
suppliers are orientated more towards products
than services, and may currently fall short on
accreditation requirements.
Despite the good work of the FMSG since its
inception, market sustainability remains an area of
concern. Several common themes and concerns
have been reinforced in discussions with
stakeholders on both client and supply sides of
the relationship and will require ongoing proactive
management; these are set out in more detail in
the Commercial Case. These issues relate to both
traditional and digital forensics (only recently
included in FMSG scope), and include elements
of value for money, consistency and cost of
accreditation, supplier lock-in, perceived lack of
market access and access to innovation; and the
overall economics of delivery in a 44 force model.
OPTIONS ASSESSMENT
The Commercial Case assesses the respective
options and provides supporting rationale as
summarised below.
Options Qualitative Comment
1 & 2
Fundamentally an incremental play on
“as-Is”, does not adequately address
national and transformational approach
and levers. Low incremental benefit
potential.
3
May offer a stronger central approach
and benefits from enhanced category
management but is fundamentally built
around a national procurement
framework approach that many forces
have already rejected. May still be
possible to accommodate alternative
contract models using national
specifications and standards. Requires
sustainment of a central capability, but
offers only limited influence over
national and transformational levers.
4
Potentially opens up greater
opportunity to influence pan-regional
and national levers. Opportunity to
evolve from current collaboration
structures. Potentially complicated
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management and governance
structure given the volume of “lead
forces” operating under national
governance.
5
By far the most challenging to deliver
but creates a platform for a ‘whole
system’ approach and the ability to
drive all levers required to maximise
transformational benefits and market
engagement. This option is
significantly differentiated by creation
of a new management and service
delivery “entity” structure, and by
inclusion of front-line delivery in service
scope. Phased implementation may be
desirable in order to mitigate initial
concerns over transferring front-line
work outside of local force control. It is
currently unclear what impact, if any, a
front-line delivery shift has on the
market.
Figure 30: Commercial case options assessment
Given the perspective set by the Forensic Science
Strategy, and the extent of commitment to
recently awarded contracts, it is considered that
only Options 4 and 5 would ever converge toward
the level of national transformation benefits
envisaged.
Viability issues and questions remain around all
options but most critically around Options 4 and 5.
A commercial management action plan is
therefore integrated within the Commercial Case,
and referenced as a subset of the overall
Management Case presented to support the
execution of the preferred option.
The Commercial Case sets out in more general
terms the parameters that will ensure that specific
procurements yet to be identified, but derived to
support the preferred option at the next stage, are
both viable and executed in a manner consistent
with HM Treasury Green Book expectations.
SUMMARY
The Economic Case has considered the following
aspects in evaluating the options presented within
the OBC:
Quantitative assessment of the options
including:
Optimism bias analysis
Sensitivity analysis
Qualitative assessment of the options
including:
Questioning of forensic leaders as to which
option is best positioned to deliver the
benefits
Commercial assessment of the forensic
landscape and the impact of the options
Each of these assessments has concluded that
Option 5 is the preferred option. Option 5 shall
therefore be taken forward as the proposed option
within the Financial, Commercial and
Management cases.
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INTRODUCTION
The Economic Case has identified Option 5 (Full
integration) as the preferred option for
consideration. The Financial Case outlines the
funding sources for the constituent cost elements
within Option 5.
The constituent cost elements are:
Forensic Delivery Costs – the cost of
personnel (including training), accreditation,
premises and services (i.e. logistics and
outsourced forensics services providers) for
the delivery of Business As Usual (BAU)
forensics services. IT costs are excluded
unless specifically identified.
Existing IT Delivery Costs - the costs of
maintaining the current level of IT capability.
Investment Costs – the business transition
costs required to deliver Option 5.
Additional Technical delivery costs – the
technical costs (i.e. new systems / services)
required to deliver Option 5.
Two cost profiles have been modelled for Option
5, as outlined below:
1. The “core cost” profile – Option 5
modelled against a baseline set of
assumptions and variables, as detailed in
the Economic Case. The optimism bias
identified in the Economic Case is also
included within this profile.
The core assumption baseline
46 force cohort involvement
2. The “sensitivity analysis” profile - Option
5 as modelled against the following
scenario from the sensitivity analysis, as
previously described in the Economic Case:
The core assumption baseline
28 force cohort involvement
The second profile above is important in the
context of the Financial Case, for two main
reasons:
It is unlikely that all forces will participate in TF
and the number of forces within an option is a
significant cost driver. Modelling Option 5 on a
28 force cohort will therefore give a cost profile
based on partial participation, which in itself is
a more probable scenario.
By extension, this has an impact on the Police
Transformation Funding request – as a
reduced force cohort will mean a smaller
overall delivery cost. It is assumed that the
Transformation Funding is accessible from FY
17/18 – 19/20.
For the avoidance of doubt, all costs detailed
within the Financial Case are presented:
In undiscounted terms
With a 2% compounded inflation over the
appraisal period
Without Value Added Tax (VAT) being applied
Financial Case
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Non-core Cost 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 Totals
Forensic Delivery Costs 384.36 401.40 430.48 431.52 420.70 427.21 273.05 278.51 284.08 289.76 3621.06
Existing IT Delivery Costs 21.60 20.44 20.08 20.48 19.19 19.39 16.44 16.77 17.10 17.44 188.92
Sub-total Non-Core Costs 405.95 421.84 450.56 451.99 439.89 446.59 289.48 295.27 301.18 307.20 3809.98
Core Programme Cost
Option 5 - Investment Costs 6.71 14.79 18.35 13.54 14.27 14.15 9.66 5.52 5.37 0.00 102.37
Option 5 - Additional Tech Delivery Costs 0.00 63.86 49.58 38.25 28.85 49.53 35.68 36.39 37.12 37.86 377.12
Sub-total Core Costs 6.71 78.64 67.94 51.79 43.12 63.68 45.34 41.91 42.49 37.86 479.48
Total Non-Core & Core Costs 412.67 500.49 518.50 503.78 483.01 510.27 334.83 337.18 343.67 345.07 4289.47
Option 5 Optimism Bias
Optimism Bias 3.49 40.90 35.33 26.93 22.42 33.11 23.58 21.79 22.10 19.69 249.33
Sub-total Optimism Bias 3.49 40.90 35.33 26.93 22.42 33.11 23.58 21.79 22.10 19.69 249.33
Total Option 5 Costs 416.16 541.38 553.83 530.71 505.43 543.38 358.41 358.98 365.77 364.75 4538.80
Option 5 - Funding Sources (All £M)
Police Local Funding 405.95 421.84 450.56 451.99 439.89 446.59 289.48 295.27 301.18 307.20 3809.98
Sub-total Police Local Funding 405.95 421.84 450.56 451.99 439.89 446.59 289.48 295.27 301.18 307.20 3809.98
Police Transformation Funding
Police Transformation Funding 10.20 119.54 103.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sub-total Police Transformation Funding 10.20 119.54 103.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 233.01
Additional Funding Required
Additional Funding 0.00 0.00 0.00 78.72 65.54 96.79 68.92 63.70 64.59 57.55 495.81
Sub-total Additional Funding 0.00 0.00 0.00 78.72 65.54 96.79 68.92 63.70 64.59 57.55 495.81
Police Local Funding saving Vs. 'Do Nothing'
Do Nothing' Cost 409.37 425.50 454.00 461.02 470.24 479.64 489.24 499.02 509.00 519.18 4716.22
Option 5 Police Local Funding 405.95 421.84 450.56 451.99 439.89 446.59 289.48 295.27 301.18 307.20 3809.98
Variance 3.42 3.66 3.44 9.02 30.35 33.05 199.75 203.75 207.82 211.98 906.24
Net Additional Funding Required Vs Variance 3.42 3.66 3.44 -69.69 -35.20 -63.74 130.83 140.04 143.24 154.43 410.43
Figure 31: The “Core Cost” profile associated with Option 5
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Non-core Cost 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 2024/25 2025/26 2026/27 Totals
Forensic Delivery Costs 180.13 179.75 186.58 186.79 181.92 184.56 133.97 136.65 139.38 142.17 1651.90 a.
Existing IT Delivery Costs 11.36 11.19 11.33 11.56 11.01 11.14 7.82 7.98 8.14 8.30 99.83 b.
Sub-total Non-Core Costs 191.49 190.94 197.91 198.35 192.93 195.70 141.79 144.63 147.52 150.47 1751.73 c.
Core Programme Cost
Option 5 - Investment Costs 3.61 7.95 9.86 7.27 7.66 7.60 5.19 2.96 2.89 0.00 54.99 d.
Option 5 - Additional Tech Delivery Costs 0.00 35.74 28.96 22.29 17.54 28.40 18.36 18.73 19.11 19.49 208.61 e.
Sub-total Core Costs 3.61 43.68 38.82 29.56 25.20 36.01 23.56 21.70 21.99 19.49 263.60 f.
Total Non-Core & Core Costs 195.09 234.62 236.73 227.91 218.13 231.70 165.35 166.33 169.51 169.96 2015.34 g.
Option 5 - Funding Sources (All £M)
Police Local Funding 191.49 190.94 197.91 198.35 192.93 195.70 141.79 144.63 147.52 150.47 1751.73 c. above
Sub-total Police Local Funding 191.49 190.94 197.91 198.35 192.93 195.70 141.79 144.63 147.52 150.47 1751.73 h.
Police Transformation Funding
Police Transformation Funding 3.61 43.68 38.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 86.10
f. above for a7/18 – 19/20
Sub-total Police Transformation Funding 3.61 43.68 38.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 86.10
Additional Funding Required
Additional Funding 0.00 0.00 0.00 29.56 25.20 36.01 23.56 21.70 21.99 19.49 177.50
f. above for 20/21
onwards
Sub-total Additional Funding 0.00 0.00 0.00 29.56 25.20 36.01 23.56 21.70 21.99 19.49 177.50 i.
Police Local Funding saving Vs. 'Do Nothing'
Do Nothing' Cost 193.81 224.67 219.19 212.35 206.83 216.27 203.71 203.71 203.71 203.71 2087.95 h. above
Option 5 Police Local Funding 191.49 190.94 197.91 198.35 192.93 195.70 141.79 144.63 147.52 150.47 1751.73 j.
Variance 2.32 33.73 21.29 14.00 13.89 20.57 61.91 59.08 56.18 53.23 336.21 j. above less
i.
Net Additional Funding Required Vs Variance 2.32 33.73 21.29 -15.56 -11.30 -15.44 38.36 37.38 34.19 33.75 158.71
Figure 32: The “Sensitivity Analysis” profile associated with Option 5
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A summary of the profiles are shown below:
OPTION 5 – CORE COST PROFILE
Option 5 - Core Cost Profile Notes
Costs £M
Sub-total Non-Core Costs 3809.98
Sub-total Core Costs 479.48
Sub-total Optimism Bias 249.33
Total Option 5 Costs 4538.80 Total cost to deliver Option 5
Funding Required £M
Police Local Funding 3809.98
Police Transformation Funding 233.01
Remaining Funding Required -495.81 Additional funding required beyond
the Police Transformation Funding
Variance - Do Nothing Vs Police Local Funding 906.24 Saving to Police by proceeding with
Option 5, vs the 'do nothing' baseline
Remaining Funding Available to Police
Local Fund
410.43 Balance of saving now available for
Police reinvestment
Figure 33: The “Core Cost” profile summary
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OPTION 5 – SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS COST PROFILE
Option 5 - Sensitivity Analysis Cost Profile Notes
Costs £M
Sub-total Non-Core Costs 1751.73
Sub-total Core Costs 263.60
Sub-total Optimism Bias 0.00
Total Option 5 Costs 2015.33 Total cost to deliver Option 5
Funding Required £M
Police Local Funding 1751.73
Police Transformation Funding 86.1 Programme costs that fall within the Transformation Funding window
Remaining Funding Required -177.50 Additional funding required beyond the Police Transformation Funding window
Variance - 'Do Nothing' Vs
Police Local Funding 336.21
Saving to Police from proceeding with Option 5, vs the 'do nothing' baseline (Do Nothing - Op 5 Police Local Funding)
Remaining Funding Available
to Police Local Fund 158.71 Balance of saving now available for Police reinvestment
Figure 34: The “Sensitivity Analysis Cost” profile summary
SUMMARY
There are two significant aspects to highlight from
the cost profiles, which are themselves important
items to explore between the Outline Business
Case and Full Business Case phases of
Transforming Forensics:
There is an implicit assumption within this
Financial Case that any additional costs
required to support Option 5 beyond the Police
Reform and Transformation Funding window
can be offset against the savings that Option 5
will deliver to Police Local budgets. Obtaining
force cohort buy-in to this assumption (see the
bullet below) is key to the future funding of
Option 5.
The financial analysis has shown that the
number of forces within the Option 5 cohort is
a large varying factor to the overall cost of the
option. It is therefore key that, post Outline
Business Case, the size and mix of the force
cohort be quickly established, such that the
financial profile (and therefore Police Reform
and Transformation funding usage, as well as
reliance on Police Local Funding) can be
determined. Identifying and confirming the
force cohort is therefore captured as one of the
initial tasks in the transition plan associated
with Option 5.
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INTRODUCTION
The HM Treasury Green Book11
sets the following
expectation of the Commercial Case at OBC
stage:
Demonstrates that the “preferred option”
results in viable procurement and a well-
structured deal.
Planning and management of the procurement
occurs.
A spending authority will set how the “preferred
option” for spend will be procured,
competitively, in accordance with the current
regulations for public sector procurements.
The spending authority to clearly specify
service requirements for the spending proposal
in output terms, together with the anticipated
charging regime and the allocation of risk in
each of the design, build, funding and
operational (DBFO) phases of the proposed
scheme.
Includes the contractual arrangements and
specifies the accountancy treatment to be
used for the proposed service.
The Commercial Case assumes the preferred
option will be fulfilled via the provision of forensic
transformation services under multiple contracts,
rather than by execution of a single project-based
transformational procurement project.
For the purposes of the Commercial Case, the
following definitions are adopted.
11
HM Treasury Green Book https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-green-book-appraisal-and-evaluation-in-central-governent
a. “Traditional Forensics” (aligned to
Forensic Science Strategy)
“The application of science to a criminal
investigation and court proceedings. This
includes crime scene investigation and
the collection, identification, analysis and
interpretation of potential evidence such
as DNA, fingerprints, drug analysis and
footwear marks.”
b. “Digital Forensics” (aligned to Digital
Forensics Portfolio as recommended by
Programme Director)
“The application of science to the
identification, collection, examination and
analysis of electronic data whilst
preserving the integrity of the information
and maintaining the chain of custody of
that data”
The Commercial Case supports the overall option
evaluation approach agreed with stakeholders,
including forensic leaders, and incorporates the
following alongside the standard Outline Business
Case commercial content, intended to support the
realisation of the preferred option (Full Forensic
Integration) through to the Full Business Case
stage:
Current Forensic Landscape (“As-Is”)
Assessment
Options Assessment
Priorities for commercial management action
Commercial Case
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STRATEGIC CONTEXT
The strategic context is grounded in the Forensic
Science Strategy12
, published and presented to
Parliament in March 2016. It is assumed that the
Forensic Science Strategy is fully supported and
aligned within the wider landscape of policing
transformation, including the Modern Crime
Prevention Strategy13
, and Digital Investigation
and Intelligence14
.
The Forensic Science Strategy sets out a
commitment, by the end of this Parliament, to
design and deliver a national approach to forensic
science delivery, supported by the Home Office.
The pillars of this national approach draw out
several aspirations which have a direct and
significant impact on the market for forensic
services, and the commercial arrangements which
will underpin future procurement. The most critical
aspirations driving the Commercial Case are
expressed in the strategy as:
a. consistent quality management and
standardisation across police forces,
including a clearer statutory role for the
Forensic Science Regulator;
b. a review by police forces of the case for
moving current fragmented provision
into a Joint Forensic and Biometric
Service to achieve economies of scale,
increased capability and resilience;
c. ongoing oversight of the health of the
supply chain, including contingency
plans developed by police forces to cope
with disruption to the market;
12
Home Office Forensic Science Strategy, March 2016, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/506652/54493_Cm_9217_Forensic_Science_Strategy_Accessible.pdf 13
Modern Crime Prevention Strategy, March 2016, https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/509831/6.1770_Modern_Crime_Prevention_Strategy_final_WEB_version.pdf 14
Digital Investigation and Intelligence, Policing Capabilities for a Digital Age, http://www.npcc.police.uk/documents/reports/Digital%20Investigation%20and%20Intelligence%20Policing%20capabilities%20for%20a%20digital%20age%20April%202015.pdf
d. nurturing a stronger partnership with
industry and education to ensure that
learning programmes are future proofed
and aligned to the business requirements.
The National Police Lead for Digital Investigation
and Intelligence (DII), has also set out a
framework for DII development nationally,
regionally and locally, focusing on people, ways of
working, digital sources, exploitation and
partnerships. DII sets the aspiration of a national
approach to digital forensics to ensure that
services are designed, built once, and used
many times across law enforcement agencies.
This means that police forces need to ensure that
as any particular tools or techniques are
developed, there is sufficient governance and
infrastructure in place to avoid unnecessary
duplication. Digital forensic capabilities are to be
shared between law enforcement agencies as
quickly as possible where operational and legal
considerations permit.
Further commercial strategy context is considered
under the section of the Commercial Case
headed “Commercial Principles”, broadly aligned
to the NPCC and Home Office sponsored
Collaborative Law Enforcement Procurement
Programme15
.
CURRENT LANDSCAPE
The review of the commercial landscape for
forensic services has been derived from several
sources, primarily consisting of the following:
Transforming Forensics project data collection
including the force cohort questionnaire.
The Home Office Forensic Science Strategy
and subsequent reviews.
NAO report entitled “The Home Office’s
Oversight of Forensic Services” December
201416
.
15
Collaborative Law Enforcement Procurement Programme, October 2016 http://instituteforcollaborativeworking.com/Resources/Documents/exec_network_2016/lee_tribe_home_office.pdf 16
NAO Report entitled “The Home Office’s Oversight of Forensic Services” December 2014,
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Forensic Science Regulator Annual Report
dated January 201717
.
The Collaborative Law Enforcement
Procurement (CLEP) Programme Digital
Forensics Initial Briefing Paper (v3.1, issued
January 2017).
Home Office Forensic Marketplace Team
Management Information for 2015/16.
Stakeholder meetings and conference calls.
Limited industry engagement.
Other desk and web-based research into the
forensic marketplace.
https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/The-Home-Office%E2%80%99s-oversight-of-forensic-services.pdf 17
Forensic Science Regulator Annual Report dated January 2017, https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/forensic-science-regulator-annual-report-2016
No new primary market research has been
commissioned to support the Commercial Case.
No commercial market research or analyst reports
have been acquired. Freely available web based
market commentaries are referred to where
relevant.
In broad terms the approach taken has sought to
achieve a robust understanding of the Landscape
summarised in Figure 35 below.
Current
forensic
suppliers
Data
collection
force cohort
Market
strategy
board
Existing
police
collaborations
Commercial Case
Understand the current ‘as-
is’ regarding:
Force procurement models
and values
Key suppliers to forces
Different licensing and
procurement methods used
by forces
Trends between forces and
collaborations
Understand:
Existing engagements with
forensic supply chain
How forces currently
collaborate in enacting
procurements
Lessons learned that can
inform the OBC strategy
Understand:
Views and positions from
the market
Validation of the current
model; and contracting and
spend landscape from data
collection activity
Enable:
A more strategic relationship
with forensics supply chain
Align with:
Terms of reference
Strategic aims
Current operating model
Potential future models
Figure 35: Commercial Case principles
A copy of the supporting “as-is” assessment product is included within Appendix D.
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BUSINESS AND SERVICE REQUIREMENTS
BUSINESS REQUIREMENTS
The Strategic Case sets out the rationale for
transforming forensic service delivery. As part of
this analysis, it identifies the essential goals for a
future service as:
Delivering better outcomes
Building capability for the future
Supporting re-investment in priority areas
Enabling wider reform
The Strategic Case goes on to describe how a set
of five options for future service design has been
developed for consideration.
The Transforming Forensics (formerly Joint
Forensic and Biometric Service) Project
Mandate18
establishes six high-level “Must Have”
business requirements mapped to ten streams of
cashable or potentially cashable benefits. The
extent to which the OBC options satisfy these
high-level requirements and benefit expectations
has been assessed in the Economic Case. This
has concluded that Option 5 (Full Forensic
Integration) is the most advantageous option for
future forensic service delivery. This Commercial
Case therefore, focuses on the commercial
realisation of Option 5 (Full Forensic Integration).
SERVICE REQUIREMENTS
High-level service mapping has been undertaken
by the project against the scope of Options 1 to 5
described more fully in the Economic Case.
These options are aligned to 15 underlying
service elements, each of which gives rise to a
specific subset of service requirements. Each
option is progressively richer in content in terms of
back office non-casework-related activity, back-
end casework consolidation, and frontline forensic
operations at the crime scene.
Further development of the FBC will involve a
challenge process to identify the most efficient
and effective delivery mechanisms available to
support each capability, particularly where
services may potentially be moving outside their
historical market provision model.
18
Joint Forensics & Biometrics Service, Programme Mandate, v0.1, May 2016
It is envisaged that the final set of service
requirements will consist of a defined set of
products and services which will be packaged and
delivered consistently by the internal and external
market, through an agreed operating model.
These service requirements will need to
accommodate the range of operational
collaboration models currently adopted by police
forces and any other public service organisations
in scope. The service requirements will broadly
fall into the following sub-categories for futue
commercial and procurement strategy purposes:
Traditional forensic services
Traditional forensic supplies
Digital forensic services
Digital forensic supplies
Supporting technology, tools and systems
integration
Managed services supporting all or some of
the above
Supply Chain Management
National and regional enabling infrastructure,
e.g. network and cloud based systems
Training services
Forensic archiving
People,skills and recruitment
Proficiency testing services
R&D
Other national regional requirments not falling
into any of the above sub-categories
The service requirement descriptions to be used
to support procurement plans intended to deliver
the preferred option will be identified as part of the
work required to prepare the Full Business Case.
A set of national specifications is generally
available to support traditional forensic service
delivery based on what was previously developed
to support the National Forensic Framework (Next
Generation), and based on standards and
guidance agreed with the Forensic Science
Regulator. These service descriptions and SLAs
are well established and already widely used
across the forensic delivery community. They will
progressively be adapted to support new
contracts and future convergence to the preferred
option.
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POTENTIAL FOR RISK TRANSFER
This section provides a high-level view of how the
opportunity for risk transfer might be approached
between the Authority, forces and the supply
chain under the preferred option. Option 5
features a national delivery entity and supporting
capability, the scope of which will be further
developed at the OBC to FBC stage.
An early view of the potential scope for risk
transfer highlights four main risk areas that would
require particular focus in the execution of the
preferred option, the detail of which will require
further work during the OBC to FBC stage,
include:
A potential shift of delivery and operational risk
away from forces as operations and resources
are progressively migrated to the new model.
The potential for acceptance of delivery and
operational risk within the scope of the new
integrated service entity, yet to be fully scoped.
A potential shift toward greater sharing of risk
with industry, an extension of some of the
“partnership”-focused relationships already
being created under new contracting and
collaboration models.
The potential delegation of supply chain and
market management risk depending upon the
structure and limitations of any new supply
arrangements created to support the preferred
option.
There is currently no specific information available
to assess the potential impact of Brexit on the
forensic marketplace in such areas as research
funding, standards development, and any ripple
through effect on the continued availability of, and
access to, a skilled forensic workforce.
COMMERCIAL PRINCIPLES
In broad terms the Transforming Forensics project
will seek to follow established policy, principles
and guidelines to achieve competitive, value for
money commercial and service outcomes. At high
level these principles will include satisfying the
following:
EU Public Procurement Regulations and Policy
Directives where relevant;
National Police Chiefs Council (NPCC)
Commercial & Procurement Policy;
Collaborative Law Enforcement Procurement
(CLEP) Programme;
NPCC Information Management and
Operational Requirements Committee;
Home Office Commercial Policy &
Architectural Principles (to the extent they
apply to NPCC Police led programmes);
Standards and Guidelines set by the Forensic
Science Regulator;
Wider Government Commercial Policy
including Government Supplier Standard19
.
Any deviance from these broad principles will
need to be subject to business justification
underpinned by the relevant evidence base and
governance.
Options 3, 4 and 5 considered in the OBC are
characterised by progressively greater levels of
coordination in requirements definition,
marketplace management, centrally-facilitated
procurement enabling local delivery, and
casework management. These models in turn
drive increasing depth in the supplier relationship
model required for success. This is addressed
further under governance and procurement
mechanisms below.
PROPOSED CHARGING MECHANISMS
A range of charging models will be applied based on the nature of individual product and service contracts. Given the scope of component services involved in delivering the preferred option, it is likely that the full range of models will be applied to different transactions. For complex transactions, a range of models may be applied within a single contract. The most commonly used charging mechanisms to be deployed will include: catalogue-based unit pricing for standard
products and services (fixed and variable),
including national purchasing of new
technology, e.g. Rapid DNA;
project-based transition and transformation
charges;
managed service charges and fees;
capacity-based annual or quarterly fees,
subject to agreed volume tolerance;
forensics “as a service” style pricing;
19
https://www.gov.uk/government/consultations/supplier-standard-for-digital-and-technology-service-providers
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licence fees charged to individuals or groups of
users
professional service charges (time and
materials based).
The preferred option is likely to drive a combination of both commercial charging for external supply of services as described above, and the need to create a new internal charging model to accommodate national governance and service delivery elements, to be charged from the centre to regions and forces as recipients of service. The detail of this will need to be established as part of the FBC planning to enable timely alignment with the budget planning cycle.
PROPOSED CONTRACT LENGTHS
A full range of potential contract lengths will be
considered appropriate to the nature of the
specific transactions required to deliver any given
component of the preferred solution.
General Public Procurement policy in recent years
has driven toward shorter contract durations for
smaller packages of work. This is intended to
encourage regular competition, encourage
adoption of industry standard cloud-based
solutions, acquisition via multi-tenanted
framework contracts and marketplace, and to
reduce the incidence of bespoke project-based
investments, which create long term supplier lock
in. Such arrangements will typically apply to the
more commoditised service requirements. In
these instances, a project contract term or call off
award of 1–3 years may be appropriate.
Framework contracts will typically have a term of
3 to 4 years, but may be longer if clearly stated at
OJEU Notice stage and commercially justified.
In more complex cases longer contract durations
may appropriate. These contracts will typically
involve complex collaboration, a degree of project
specific authority or supplier-based investment
required to deliver the service, and a period of
transition and or transformation. The recently
awarded Metropolitan Police Service (MPS)
contracts for forensic services20
are examples of
such a contract awarded on the basis of a term of
20
MPS OJEU Notices, 2015
http://www.government-online.net/provide-forensics-service-to-metropolitan-police/ http://www.government-online.net/provide-digital-forensics-managed-service-to-metropolitan-police/
seven years with further options to extend up to
ten years. In the case of the MPS, the case for
such a long contract has been justified on the
grounds of building a deeper relationship which
delivers mutual benefit and seeds confidence to
invest in research and innovation. The recently
awarded (East Midlands Special Operations Unit
(EMSOU)21
collaboration contract establishes a
similar term. Where longer contract durations are
contemplated, key contract terms need to reflect
the balance of risk. Key areas to be considered
are reflected below.
In the case of the preferred Option 5, the current
view of likely contract length, by service
component is as set out in Figure 36 below.
Service
Requirement
Likely
contract
duration
Rationale
Technology 1-3 Market driven change
and churn
Managed
Services
3-5 Create deeper
relationship, support
transition
Full
outsourcing
5-7 Allow a full
investment cycle,
facilitate
transformation and
innovation
National
delivery entity
(Force
collaboration
“Contract”)
5-7 Allow a full
investment cycle,
facilitate
transformation and
innovation
Figure 36: Service components and rationale
PROPOSED KEY CONTRACT CLAUSES
No single contracting model will apply to all
elements of the preferred option solution.
In general, Transforming Forensics will seek to
apply established police precedent terms and
conditions based on existing collaborative
contracts or police model contracts. Where value
for money and service specifications are assured,
the solution will seek to re-use existing
collaborative contracts and frameworks, including
21
EMSOU -FS Tender for the Supply of Regional
External Forensic Service Provision 2016
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those made available via the Home Office or
Crown Commercial Service (E.g. Digital
Marketplace). This approach reflects the key
pillars of the NPCC Collaborative Law
Enforcement Procurement Programme, i.e.
standardisation, aggregation, and collaboration.
For more bespoke contracts the default position is
the Government Model Service Contract (MSC)22
.
The MSC forms a set of model terms and
conditions for major service contracts that are
published for use by government departments
and other public sector organisations. The MSC
reflects current government priorities and
recommended ways of doing business. The
model aims to aid assurance, reduce
administration, legal costs and negotiation time.
The MSC is suitable for use with a wide range of
business services that public sector organisations
purchase and contains applicable provisions for
contracts for business process outsourcing and or
IT delivery services. The MSC is generally
recognised by industry, and can generally be
modified to ensure its provisions are appropriate
and proportionate to the business opportunity.
Contracts intended to support complex
transformational requirements, potentially for a
longer time period, require specific key clauses to
reflect the risk profile of the transaction and the
allocation of responsibilities. In the context of the
preferred option, the following key contract
clauses and risk areas will require careful
consideration in context of both current and future
procurement arrangements:
novation and transfer arrangements if a new
contracting entity introduced;
supply chain and market management
transparency;
financial and charging model, price reviews
and VfM transparency;
assurance and Accreditation standards
(including those set by the Forensic Science
Regulator);
outcome-based service specifications;
liabilities and indemnities;
TUPE obligations;
22
Government Model Service Contract (MSC)
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/model-
services-contract
service development and innovation
provisions;
delivery milestones (transition and
transformation plan) and incentives;
Service Level Agreements and remedies for
failure;
performance management and Step In rights;
termination and exit provisions;
transition and exit assistance provisions;
reporting and governance.
In addition to the terms governing commercial
supply, the implementation of the preferred option
will require establishment of terms governing
internal supply, collaboration, service between the
national delivery model and users of the services
in forces and regions. The same commercial
principles as outlined above should generally be
applied as a guide.
GOVERNANCE AND PROCUREMENT MECHANISMS
The viability of the preferred option requires
application of advanced techniques in
Collaborative Relationship Management and
Category Management, underpinned by the
required governance. The assessment of options
included taking a view against a Category
Management maturity model as set out below.
Option 5 represents the position of maximum
opportunity in terms of classic category
management levers of aggregation,
standardisation, demand management, and ability
to influence the entire external and internal
service landscape.
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ASSESSMENT VIEW AGAINST CATEGORY MANAGEMENT MATURITY MODEL
Option 1
(Do Nothing)
Option 2
(Exploit HOB +)
Option 3
(Nationally Enabled Infrastructure)
Option 4
(Aggregate and Consolidate)
Option 5
(Full Integration)
No change from current commercial
landscape – no (or very limited)
additional benefits to be realised.
Encompasses none of the features of
Category Management.
Minimal benefit from Fingerprint
Bureaux kit.
Low annual aggregated spend,
therefore minimal savings anticipated.
Entails aggregation of only one sub-
category therefore on the very low
scale of Category Management.
Some products and services to be
specified and managed centrally
enabling aggregation of demand and
more consistent contract
management.
Limited influence on internal market.
Simplified /unified contract
management.
Represents an old contract model (i.e.
Frameworks established at the
“Centre”, called off by forces).
Assumes the Procurement is
managed by the TF Programme,
therefore a time-limited initiative.
Recent major contracts (Met,
EMSOU, SWCC) would need to be
managed to accommodate new
commercial arrangements
A more mature level of category
management with harmonisation of
specifications and aggregation of
demand for some sub-categories.
Assumes a much greater level of
aggregation of demand, leading to
better value for money.
Strong Category Management
governance.
Collaborative R&D.
Assurance and benchmarking.
Allows for commonality of
specifications and requirements.
Suppliers still have to deal with
multiple tenders and contracts.
Fragmented and potentially
inconsistent Contract Management.
Potential for inconsistent supplier
performance and contract
management.
Recent major contracts (MPS,
EMSOU, SWCC) would need to be
managed to accommodate new
commercial arrangements.
Moving towards full Category
Management but no (or very limited)
ability to manage the entire market.
Full service delivery entity creates the
strongest national governance.
Only Option which allows proper
market management and
development.
Strong demand management.
Allows for commonality of
specifications and requirements but
with more viability of their application
than under Option 4.
Offers most positive opportunity for
best supply chain and price value
through “one to many” customer to
market model.
Integrated systems and MI.
Enables full aggregation of demand
and hence best leverage, and
economies of scale.
Modelling of products and service
pricing to determine the “should cost”.
Best utilisation of Procurement and
Commercial resources.
Allows for holistic contract
management.
Recent major contracts (MPS,
EMSOU, SWCC) would need to be
managed to accommodate new
commercial arrangements.
Full category management, expected
to deliver all the associated benefits.
Figure 37: Option assessment against category management model
Options 3, 4 or 5 requires progressively more sophisticated and stronger category and collaborative governance as outlined below.
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CATEGORY MANAGEMENT
The overall market management function, and the
balance of responsibilities between the Home
Office, individual forces, the police ICT company,
the well-established collaborative and regional
structures may need re-establishing under the
NPCC, working with the Forensic Marketplace
Strategy Group and CLEP in a manner which
resets the relationship with the internal and
external market in context with the preferred
operating model. There is currently a risk that the
responsibility for overall delivery of VfM,
performance, accreditation and market
sustainment could become too fragmented across
the breadth of the Transforming Forensics
delivery landscape.
In parallel with the planned shift of ownership of
the Transforming Forensics delivery into police
governance from 1 April 2017, there is an
opportunity to refresh the management and
running of the Forensic Marketplace Strategy
Group (FSMG) to create a clean line of
operational category management accountability
via the NPCC, National Commercial Board,
National Police Procurement Executive, the CLEP
and individual forces. This police governance
model would also need to recognise and
incorporate any new structures created under or
inspired by Transforming Forensics. A
reinforcement and consolidation of the role of the
Forensic Marketplace Strategy Group will refocus
specific oversight to the commercial operations
and management required to underpin execution
of the preferred option. Operational procurement
resources will then be focused on the forensic
category management strategy and its execution,
sourced via existing police procurement
collaboration resources where available, the
police ICT company, or via resources seconded in
from either the Home Office or the external
market where necessary, to deliver the
Transforming Forensics project outcomes. Given
the specialised nature of the marketplace, it is
preferable for existing forensic market
procurement specialists to lead the activity with
appropriate strategic management oversight.
COLLABORATIVE RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Execution of the preferred option is likely to be a
long term and complex undertaking which, if
approved, will span the entire lifecycle of all
existing and planned contracts in the current
landscape, and needs to plan for the succession
of these contracts as part of the transformation
process. Success will require high order
collaborative working and relationship
management across both the customer and the
supply chain community. A best practice model
should therefore be adopted. Under the
leadership of the FSMG, a formalised approach,
aligned to the principles of BS11000
(Collaborative Business Relationships)23
or
equivalent as advised by the National Commercial
Board, should be considered as a critical enabling
investment. This will maximise the opportunity to
bring the “centrally enabled, locally delivered”
philosophy to life within a comprehensive
relationship management plan tailored to support
all levels of collaboration across national and local
Policing, and all aspects of the forensics supply
chain, both Traditional and Digital.
Implementing a formalised and structured
approach sends out a strong message to the
marketplace other business and political
stakeholders that Transforming Forensics is
different, and that accreditation at all levels of the
supply chain is a central pillar to the sector-wide
collaboration. One approach may involve creation
of a senior supplier-facing Steering Board for
Transforming Forensics, operating alongside the
internal police and Home Office governance
framework, and outside any specific contract
governance.
Best practice category management delivers
incremental bottom line benefits. CLEP estimates
this at 14% based on its general track record of
standardisation, aggregation and collaboration.
Wider market surveys support this view. Future
Purchasing’s Global Category Management
Leadership Report for 2016/17, “Collaborating For
Category Management Success, Bridging The
23
BS11000 https://www.bsigroup.com/en-GB/bs-11000-collaborative-business-relationships/
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TF OBC - v1.1.docx PAGE 80 OF 129 31st March 2017
Performance and Value Gap”24
estimates that
procurement leaders typically achieve between
11.1% and 16.3%. It is expected that application
of full Category Management across the scope of
forensic activity captured within the scope of
Option 5 (Full Integration) would establish a
benefits delivery challenge in this range as a
significant contribution to the overall benefits case
set out elsewhere in the OBC.
KEY STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
A key stakeholder mapping exercise has been
undertaken and initial engagements are in hand to
support the OBC. This work establishes the
platform from which stakeholder management
focus will be driven through from the OBC to the
FBC phase.
PERSONNEL IMPLICATIONS (INCLUDING TUPE)
This area has not been assessed at present,
primarily as in order to review TUPE
considerations confirmation of a Transforming
Forensics programme force cohort would be
required (so that the forces and therefore
personnel could be determined). This area
therefore needs a more thorough review of
preferred option content by force FTE, mapped to
the end state and anticipated market provision
model, as part of the FBC effort. Option 5
distinguishes itself most notably in this regard with
respect to the creation of a new central service
delivery entity, and the potential shift of frontline
activity from law enforcement organisations.
None of the recently awarded collaboration
contracts reviewed in the “As-Is” assessment
resulted in any material TUPE transfer of people,
assets and facilities. Further discussion with the
Forensic Marketplace Management team will
confirm any wider lessons learnt.
In the absence of any other NPCC and HO
corporate template, the ACAS and Government
UK guides25
contain appropriate guidance and
templates. HR impact needs to be mapped
24
http://www.futurepurchasing.com/catman-leadership-executive-summary-report-2017 25
http://www.acas.org.uk/media/pdf/j/p/Handling-
TUPE-Transfers-The-Acas-Guide.pdf
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/tupe-
a-guide-to-the-2006-regulations
against the relevant business design options to
determine the extent to which services and people
fall within the scope of TUPE. These impacts will
be reflected in the FBC.
OPTION ASSESSMENT
An option assessment has been undertaken and
documented within the Economic Case. The FBC
phase of the work will develop and set out
implications on the existing (and potentially new)
supply chain(s) associated with Option 5,
including in-house vs bought-in potential and
wider feasibility considerations.
PROCUREMENT STRATEGY AND IMPLEMENTATION TIMESCALES
At this stage there are no specific procurement
strategies or plans such as RFIs, market
engagements, or OJEU notices to be approved as
part of this OBC submission, these plans have yet
to be formulated and will therefore form part of the
FBC work.
FRS 5 ACCOUNTANCY TREATMENT
It is envisaged that the assets engaged in the
future delivery of the forensic services will
comprise a mix of both on and off the balance
sheet entities depending on the nature of
individual service propositions, and legacy
provision. In the case of the preferred option the
anticipated asset treatment or change by service
component will be assessed in the FBC phase
through collaboration between the Commercial
case and Finance case.
CONCLUSION AND MANAGEMENT ACTIONS
Option 5 (Full Forensic Integration) is
commercially viable but requires further
development during the FBC phase. In order to
increase the probability of success, and the
realisation of benefits associated with Option 5, a
set of priorities for commercial management
action are identified below and form part of the
overall Management Case supporting the ongoing
execution of the recommendations set out in the
OBC.
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PRIORITIES FOR COMMERCIAL MANAGEMENT ACTION
1. Establish the commercial component of the
Transformation Programme: There is an
immediate need to establish the commercial
management elements of the central
programme, and thereby establish policy
direction over the extent to which the execution
and terms of existing contracts, and contracts
yet to be awarded, may already be
constraining the national transformation
opportunity. There may be an immediate need
to introduce measures to more effectively
manage demand, limit financial and
contractual commitments, and scrutinise
procurement renewals in the short (1-3 years)
term. National direction may then be
supportive toward cross-contract assurance
activity across VFM, standards and
performance expectations given the long
period of contract term entered in some key
cases.
2. Operationalise the Forensic
Marketplace Strategy Group (FMSG): A
reinforcement and consolidation of the
role of the FMSG, within the new
Transforming Forensics operating
structure defined by Option 5, is required
to maximise direct accountability and
management oversight of the commercial
operations. FMSG will underpin the
capacity and commitment to further invest
in the strength of category management
and collaborative relationship
management, including exercising control
and influence over the internal market,
drawing down its authority from the
approved Transforming Forensics
mandate to be established via the NPCC.
3. Formalise Category Management
model: Success will require investment in
leadership skills, category management,
collaborative working and relationship
management across both customer and
the supply chain community. It is
assumed that the police commercial
community already has access to a
standard category management model
which would be suitably applied and fine
tuned to the forensics opportunity,
building on existing work. The FMSG has
already begun the process of identifying
commodity targets for 2016/17
implementation, e.g. “deep dive” on
mobile kiosks, and is best placed to work
with the police ICT company on common
hardware, software and licencing
requirements.
4. Implement best practice Collaborative
Relationship Management model: A
best practice collaborative relationship
model should be adopted, under the
leadership of the FMSG, possibly aligned
to the principles of BS11000
(Collaborative Business Relationships) 26
or equivalent as advised by the National
Commercial Board. This should be
considered as a critical enabling
investment for Option 5. Implementing a
formalised and structured approach sends
out a strong message to the marketplace
and to other business and political
stakeholders that Transforming Forensics
is different, and that accreditation at all
levels of the supply chain is a central pillar
to the sector-wide collaboration.
5. Activate a contract management and
succession plan: Execution of the
preferred option is likely to be a long term
and complex undertaking which will span
the entire lifecycle of all existing and
planned contracts in the current
landscape. This is likely to take the form
of a gradual convergence rather than a
more disruptive approach. Ability to
operate within and migrate from the
parameters set by existing contracts will
be critical, with eventual succession
planning for these contracts integrated
into the transformation process.
6. Complete market scoping of Option 5:
A deeper understanding is required to
fully understand the market capability
available to deliver all service
components in the scope of Option 5,
particularly where services may be
shifting to market provision for the first
time. Further development of the FBC will
involve a challenge process to identify the
most efficient and effective delivery
mechanisms available to support each
service component.
7. Commission FMSG evaluation of
contract operating models: This will be
a critical work stream in Transforming
Forensics. Availability of empirical
26
BS11000 https://www.bsigroup.com/en-GB/bs-11000-collaborative-business-relationships/
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evidence to support the option and
evaluation of current contract model
variants is currently limited. The FMSG
work already initiated needs to be further
scoped and implemented following an
initial period (6 – 12 months) of operation
of the new models.
8. Determine TUPE scope: No headcount
or asset transfer based view of Option 5
has been reviewed, so the potential TUPE
impacts of each have yet to be included in
the case.
9. Engage industry: The two main Forensic
Trade Associations, AFSP and FAPSA,
have a vital role to play, operating as
“virtual suppliers” within a collaborative
model. Through a fully inclusive
approach, the transformational agenda
can continue to be developed at national
level, rather than being strictly limited by
the constraints of individual incumbent
supplier contracts. By harnessing the
AFSP and FAPSA (and possibly others
driven by service requirements) in this
way, the national organisation can drive
its agenda across the entire market. This
would include major suppliers and SMEs,
traditional and digital forensic services,
and support early identification and
planning potential for new services and
outsourcing, including the frontline
support potentially required under Option
5.
10. Develop new routes to market: The
Government Digital Marketplace27
may
provide a force-neutral route to support
wider market creation in digital forensic
services. Proactive use of this channel,
driven via a relaunched (repurposed to
Transforming Forensics) FMSG, may
provide ready access to additional
services, specified to agreed standards
and accreditation levels. This marketplace
would operate alongside, and potentially
within, existing non-exclusive force
contracts, thereby keeping open access
to innovation, maintaining regular refresh
of the Marketplace itself, and sustaining a
level of competition as the demand for
digital forensic services develops in both
volume and capability terms.
27
https://www.digitalmarketplace.service.gov.uk/g-cloud/search?q=Digital+Forensics
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INTRODUCTION
The Management Case identifies how to progress
and take forward the preferred option within this
Outline Business Case, Option 5 (Full Forensic
Integration), based on core programme, business
change and project management principles. The
application of these recognised principles will
enable police and the Transforming Forensics
project to deliver what is a significant and complex
change programme, whilst minimising risks and
issues where possible. These principles also
support and enable the delivery of the investment
objectives identified in the Strategic Case,
namely:
Delivering better outcomes
Supporting re-investment in priority areas
Building capability for the future
Enabling wider reform
The Management Case therefore identifies, at a
summary level, the key aspects of Option 5, its
transformation and delivery plan, and the
programme, project and business change
management steps and principles that need to be
applied in order to successfully take forward this
option.
At this point it is important to note two aspects
which are significant to the Management Case:
1. Option 5 presents a significant programme of
transformation (business and technical) work
for policing, which will result in the delivery of
Forensics “as a Service” across England and
Wales. In the context of this Management
Case:
a. Programme management is defined “as the
action of carrying out the coordinated
organization, direction and implementation
of a dossier of projects and transformation
activities (i.e. the programme) to achieve
outcomes and realize benefits of strategic
importance to the business” and “It
provides a framework whereby large,
complex change can be broken down into
manageable, inter-related projects”28
. In the
case of Option 5, Transforming Forensics is
the programme and the timely delivery of
the cost savings and benefits, as defined in
the Economic Case for Option 5, defines
success.
b. Project management is defined as “A
temporary organization that is created for
the purpose of delivering one or more
business products according to an agreed
Business Case”29
. Option 5 is comprised of
several projects, which are identified later in
this section. The projects are the vehicles
by which the “to-be” state service, with its
anticipated cost savings and benefits, is
delivered within the programme.
c. A Proof of Concept (PoC) is a project
tasked with prototyping and delivering
capabilities ahead of full service delivery,
thereby allowing risks and issues to be
identified and mitigated, as well as benefits
28
https://www.axelos.com/best-practice-solutions/msp 29
https://www.axelos.com/Corporate/media/Files/Glossaries/PRINCE2-2009-Glossary-of-terms_GB-v1-1.pdf
Management Case
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to be identified and maximised, in defining
and delivering the to-be service.
d. Information Technology Infrastructure
Library (ITIL) defines a Service30
as "a
means of delivering value to customers by
facilitating outcomes customers want to
achieve without the ownership of specific
costs and risks. In other words, when we do
something for another party that gives them
something they want or value, we're
providing a service”. In the context of
Transforming Forensics, the Service is the
resultant Forensic Service which shall
remain extant once the programme has
completed, noting that projects, and
therefore the programme, will deliver
incrementally – and therefore the Service
shall build incrementally.
2. This Outline Business Case has considered
a wide range of options. Option 1, for
example (had it been proposed by the
Outline Business Case) would have likely
resulted in multiple implementation projects
at a Force level, as opposed to any wider
transformation programme. This is in
contrast to the scope of work incorporated
within Option 5. Given that this is an Outline
Business Case, and not a Full Business
Case, the Management Case cannot, and
will not, define the full approach and
methodology for all of the projects within
the programme of work that is Option 5.
The Management Case will however
identify the following as an outline approach
for the programme, in particular to guide
the path to Full Business Case:
a. Current governance arrangements and
future arrangements required as
Transforming Forensics progresses.
b. Key activities required to progress
Option 5 to Full Business Case, and the
organisational structure required to
support this.
c. Business Case Governance associated
with Option 5
d. The programme structure required to
support the delivery of Option 5,
including key roles and stakeholders
e. Key practices and principles associated
with the delivery of Option 5, in
particular:
30
https://www.axelos.com/best-practice-solutions/itil/what-is-itil
i. Programme and project management
methodology
ii. Programme / project monitoring and
control
iii. Stakeholder management and
specialist advisers
iv. Key aspects of Industry engagement
associated with Option 5
v. Benefits Management
vi. Change Management
vii. Risk Management
The rest of the Management Case therefore
outlines the approach for the items listed in point
2 above.
CURRENT AND FUTURE GOVERNANCE ARRANGEMENTS
To date Transforming Forensics has been run as
a collection of projects, covering Research and
Development (R&D) and Proof of Concept (PoC)
activities. The effort to produce the Outline
Business Case has been run as one of these
projects, therefore existing governance layers
have already been built and there is value in
identifying these, such that the path to Full
Business Case submission and beyond can be
identified for Option 5.
The Transforming Forensics project is a police led
project, delivered with support from the Home
Office (HO). Both the police and HO stakeholders
have worked with a single delivery partner to
deliver the Outline Business Case content. The
organisational structure for the Outline Business
Case project is summarised, at the highest level,
in Figure 38 below:
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Under this project a review and governance
structure has already emerged. The more senior
aspects of this governance structure are
summarised in the image below, noting that within
the project there is an additional layer of low-level
governance and reporting that is not identified
here:
As Transforming Forensics progresses from
Outline Business Case to Full Business Case, it is
anticipated that an additional governance forum
shall be required. Work is already underway to
look at wider governance across strategic policing
initiatives (referred to as NPCC Strategic
Capabilities Portfolio), such that an efficient
management and governance structure can be
created across multiple programmes. Therefore
this Management Case does not propose that a
new governance forum be created specifically for
Transforming Forensics. Instead the
recommendation is that Transforming Forensics
participates in this wider governance consultation
with the aim of identifying a reference group (for
onwards review, status and critique of the
programme as it moves towards a Full Business
Case) that has the participation of the following
key stakeholders as a minimum:
Senior police stakeholders (both Home Office
forces and non-Home Office forces, e.g. NCA /
MoD Police / BTP)
Criminal Justice (CJ) Agencies and Courts
Crown Prosecution Service (CPS)
Criminal Case Review Commission
Forensic Science Regulator (FSR)
Forensic Service Providers (FSP) Associations
In addition to the above senior governance forum,
as the Transforming Forensics effort continues
from Outline Business Case to Full Business
Case and onwards, additional governance will be
required at the programme and project level (i.e.
within the Transforming Forensics Programme
itself). This governance is described in the “Wider
Delivery of Option 5” section of this Management
Case.
Reporting to
police
stakeholders
Reporting to
Home Office
stakeholders
Police
forensics
experts
Home Office
and delivery
partner
personnel
Police
programme
director
Home Office
programme
director
National Police
Chiefs Council
Association of
Police and
Crime
Commissioners
Executive Review Board (ERB) –
NPCC representative – Debbie
Simpson (SRO), APCC representative
Mark Burns Williamson, shortlist of
NPCC members
Transforming
Forensics
OBC project
Transforming
Forensics
R&D projects
Transforming
Forensics
PoCs
Status and
request for
guidance and
clarification
Guidance and
direction to the
projects
Fig
ure
38:
Curr
ent
pro
ject
str
uctu
re
Fig
ure
39:
Exis
ting g
overn
ance s
tructu
re
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DELIVERING OPTION 5
This section outlines the scope of Option 5 and
how current effort needs to be directed such
that the current project transitions into the
programme of activities incorporated within it.
This section also considers onward business
case governance associated with
Transforming Forensics and the wider delivery
of the programme.
THE SCOPE OF OPTION 5 (FULL FORENSIC INTEGRATION)
This option focuses on creating a single,
unified forensic service, governed and
managed at a national level with the delivery of
services occurring at a mixture of national,
regional and local levels. This service aims to
bring forensic processing as close to the scene
as possible. Key outputs from this option
include:
faster processing of forensics, via the
introduction of digital kiosks and digital
triage tools, via self-service;
opportunity to deliver some forensic
services on a 24x7 basis; and
consistent forensic intelligence services,
across boundaries to minimise and prevent
crime.
In technology terms, this option includes:
new Home Office Biometrics (HOB)
technical capabilities;
provision of a federated national login via a
front-end Forensic Portal that provides
access to a set of collaboration tools to
support policy, standards, R&D and quality
management;
networked portal applications and national
data stores for all physical and digital
forensic disciplines; and
a strategic, new national forensic work
management and intelligence capability
linked to a common family of frontline rapid
at-scene technologies.
Given that this scope presents a significant
departure from the “as-is”, careful
consideration is required to plan how the
current Transforming Forensics project (at the
point of Outline Business Case submission)
becomes a programme on its path to Full
Business Case creation and submission,
programme delivery and ultimately service
delivery.
TRANSITIONING TO OPTION 5
In creating the Transforming Forensics Outline
Business Case submission the project team
has identified a transition path for Option 5.
This transition path is detailed in Appendix B-
5. In summary, the transition path for Option 5
outlines:
a single project, in its own right, associated
with delivering the Transforming Forensics
Full Business Case – herein referred to as
the “Full Business Case project”;
a single project, in its own right, associated
with planning the wider implementation and
delivery of the Transforming Forensics
capability (the projects and PoCs detailed
below) – herein referred to as the
“Transition project”;
projects associated with introducing
capability to the delivery locations inherent
within Option 5 – herein referred to as the
“Delivery projects”; and
PoCs associated with introducing capability
to the forward and delivery inherent within
Option 5 – herein referred to as the “PoCs”.
The transition path therefore shows that
Option 5 will soon become a programme in its
own right, given that it will be comprised of
many projects, delivering in parallel. Given that
initially the focus of the programme will be on
the Full Business Case and Transition
projects, ahead of wider implementation, it is
necessary to consider an interim programme
organisation. This interim programme
organisation will, initially, be comprised of only
two projects:
a. A project with the remit of delivering
the Transforming Forensics Full
Business Case – the Full Business
Case project
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b. A project tasked with developing,
defining and delivering the wider
transition path for Option 5 – the
Transition project.
Whilst at face value there is a degree of
overlap between these projects, there is clear
rationale for running them as discrete items
under a single Programme Director (PD):
The skill sets required to prepare and
deliver a Full Business Case are different
from those needed to define and plan a
programme of work. Consequently, the
teams are likely to be staffed from
different organisations, where:
the Full Business Case project team will
be staffed by a mixture of police and
external consulting support;
the Transition project team will be more
business-focussed and, as such, have
significant representation of police and
forensic staff.
The Full Business Case team will have a
near-term focus, associated with maturing
the Outline Business Case proposition into
a more detailed analysis of Option 5 –
ultimately delivering this as a Full Business
Case, whereas the Transition project team
will be focussed on engagement with forces
to agree a robust and achievable plan that
forces can sign up to. This plan will focus
on longer term programme, project and
benefit delivery / realisation.
Police Transformation Funding (PTF), on
which Option 5 is dependent, is only
accessible for the next three financial
years. As such there is a clear need to
mobilise the programme rapidly.
Resourcing both teams early will allow the
programme to deliver the Full Business
Case whilst simultaneously preparing for
the wider implementation and capability
delivery activities.
The full interim programme organisation
(covering both the Full Business Case and
Transition project teams), which has been
costed into Option 5 as detailed in the
Economic Case, is detailed in Appendix E2 of
this Management Case.
As work commences on the tasks that will take
the Transforming Forensics programme to Full
Business Case and through transition
planning, it is important to acknowledge the
role of forensic Subject Matter Experts (SMEs)
or Specialist Advisers required during the next
phase. The project team responsible for
delivering the Full Business Case will require
the following specialist advisers to assist the
preparation of the Full Business Case
associated with Option 5:
1. Data Analysts – to build on the extensive
forensics data set compiled and modelled
under the Outline Business Case activities,
in support of the Option 5 definition and
lower level design. 2. Business and Technical Architects, to
progress Option 5 to a lower level design
as part of the Full Business Case
submission. 3. Economist and cost modelling resources to
develop the societal and financial costs,
benefits and risks required in the Economic
Case for the Full Business Case. 4. Human Resource (HR) professionals.
Option 5 has significant staffing
implications, involving a large number of
resources (c5000 in the as-is). It is
therefore of vital importance that the design
of the option is shaped around a viable
personnel strategy for these staff members. 5. Stakeholder engagement personnel. Given
the impact of Option 5 on the stakeholders
identified in the previous points, and given
the wide range of “home” organisation for
these personnel (police, Home Office,
industry providers, consulting
organisation(s)) it is critically important that
stakeholder engagement and mapping is
undertaken in a coordinated fashion. 6. Legal and policy – required to guide the
planning and delivery of Option 5 and
provide guidance on any wider implications.
In addition to the above, the following
specialist advisers will be required to support
the transition project associated with Option 5:
1. Operations Manager – to support the
initiation of the management vehicle that
will underpin Option 5, agree the force
cohort that will participate within Option 5,
agree the model for estate ownership within
Option 5 and refine the definition of the
BAU organisational structure. It is important
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to note that a key aspect of the transition
project (and the Full Business Case
project) is the early identification of the
force cohort that will be participating in
Option 5, and obtaining their early buy-in to
the programme of work.
2. HR Professional / Recruiter – to support the
identification of staff roles required, write
terms of reference and job specs for each
role, manage the recruitment and on-
boarding of resources and manage the
wider staff consultancy process. This is of
particular importance given the degree of
transformational change associated with
Option 5.
3. Police estate and facilities management –
to produce the estates strategy associated
with Option 5, identify potential premises
suitable to meet the option needs,
negotiate leases with buildings and facilities
providers, and facilitate the potential exit
from existing leased premises.
4. Communications and stakeholder
engagement resources to lead on engaging
with police resources and stakeholders
through the planning activities associated
with a significant business change activity.
At this point it should also be acknowledged
that particular emphasis will be required in the
Full Business Case project on the Commercial
Case, and that in particular strong commercial
leadership will be required in conjunction with
efforts / input from the Forensic Marketplace
Strategy Group (FMSG) and Collaborative Law
Enforcement Programme (CLEP). The Outline
Business Case’s Commercial Case has
documented that:
There is no coordinated strategic approach
currently being actioned with the forensics
industry.
The forensic market is dominated by a
small handful of key players.
These key players are already locked into
long (3 years+) frameworks / contracts of a
varying nature
Introducing changes into the marketplace
runs the risk of a duopoly, or even a
monopoly developing in some areas.
As such, a conscious decision of Outline
Business Case activities has been to only
engage with industry representatives (trade
organisations, affiliations) and not suppliers
directly until such time that:
A preferred option emerges through the
Outline Business Case review and approval
process, which has buy-in from key
governance forums (NPCC, APCC, Home
Office, SRO etc.).
The Full Business Case and transition
teams have planned, and coordinated the
sequence of tasks and activities required to
appropriately engage with industry on
Option 5.
The management actions identified in the
Commercial Case therefore call out the
following items as key actions to engage with
industry going forward:
Option 5 FBC Effort
Option 5 Transition Planning
Project
Planning
Project
Planning
Project
Planning
Project
Delivery
Project Delivery
Project Delivery
Programme Delivery
Option 5 –
Programme FBC
SubmissionProgramme
Comprehensive
Estimate At
Complete (CEAC)
Programme CEAC
Project monitoring and control
YR1 YR2
Fig
ure
40:
Pro
gra
mm
e F
BC
govern
ance
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1. To establish the Transforming Forensics
programme, such that central control can
be established on the terms and execution
of contracts yet to be awarded.
2. To operationalise the FMSG and to
consolidate the roles of the Strategy Group
to manage the commercial activities and
oversight required to deliver Option 5 with
the Forensics industry.
BUSINESS CASE GOVERNANCE ASSOCIATED WITH OPTION 5
Given that Option 5 represents a significant
transformation programme for policing, it is
important to consider how individual projects
within the programme shall be approved,
monitored and controlled. Agreeing this
process, even at an Outline Business Case
stage, is key to setting expectations on
governance and accountability as the
programme progresses.
Figure 40 above summarises the proposed
approach for governance, at the highest level,
within the programme that will deliver Option 5.
The next phase of activities, post Outline
Business Case submission and review, will
see the programme work towards a Full
Business Case. As per HM Treasury green
book guidance31
, the following are key tenets
of the Full Business Case deliverable
associated with the next phase of work:
The Full Business Case “takes place within
the procurement phase of the project,
following detailed negotiations with
potential service providers/suppliers prior to
the formal signing of contracts and the
procurement of goods and services”
“The purpose of the Full Business Case is to revisit the Outline Business Case and record the findings of the subsequent procurement activities; together with the recommendation for an affordable solution which continues to optimise value for money, and detailed arrangements for the successful delivery of required goods and
31
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/190609/Green_Book_guidance_short_plain_English_guide_to_assessing_business_cases.pdf
implementation of services from the recommended supplier/s”.
Given that Transforming Forensics is a business change programme, with projects spanning many years, it is likely that the Full Business Case submission will be predominantly focussed on the refinement of Option 5 to a low level of detail, with its cost / benefits / risk analysis updated to reflect this. Supplier engagement at the Full Business Case stage will likely be centred on two aspects: 1. Work undertaken in the Full Business Case
project to make industry aware of the aims / scope of the Transforming Forensics programme, and to solicit its feedback (and document this).
2. Industry proposals / negotiations and agreed positions on the scope associated with near-term projects within the programme, and how these proposals from the recommended suppliers fit within the overall scope. It is not anticipated that the Full Business Case will contain details of source selection / procurement activities for projects in the latter years of the programme – as it would not be feasible / viable to work these aspects until such time that they are needed.
Accordingly, the following updates (as
compared to the Outline Business Case) are
expected in the Full Business Case:
The Strategic Case – revisited and updated
as required.
The Economic Case – updated to reflect
the outcome of procurement activities for
near term projects in the analysis and
outcomes.
The Commercial Case – updated to reflect
the recommended deal(s) and the industry
engagement to date. Identification of likely
future procurement activities.
The Financial Case – updated to resolve
any affordability and/or funding issues.
The Management Case – updated to reflect
the detailed plans for delivery and
arrangements for realisation.
It is anticipated that, with the Transforming
Forensics programme being a police-led
initiative, the NPCC and APCC governance
forums shall remain the appropriate boards for
sign-off of the Full Business Case and it is
reasonable to expect that the sign-off of the
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Full Business Case shall therefore baseline
the following key programme aspects:
The programme objectives and
requirements, tied to key benefits that will
be delivered. These items should be
mapped to the projects that shall deliver
each of these items.
The programme cost profile, covering both
implementation (transition) and run costs,
again mapped to project budgets.
The programme funding profile, identifying
the funding streams associated with the
cost profile.
The programme risk profile, with
responsible stakeholders identified within
the programme organisation to own the
risk(s), and with suitable mitigation plans
developed.
The programme plan baselined,
underpinned by project schedules, with
aligned inter-dependencies, constraints and
deliverables.
Documented programme assurance plans,
detailing the programme assurance
approach and how each of the projects
aligns to the approach, with agreed
assurance requirements levied onto the
projects.
However, it does need to be recognised that
Option 5 will be a multi-year delivery
programme, comprised of several projects and
PoCs. It should therefore be acknowledged
that, as with any proposition, the further in the
future estimates are made, the higher the
degree of uncertainty that will be associated
with those estimates.
Therefore a recommendation of this
Management Case is that the Transforming
Forensics programme follows a similar model
to other police / Home Office programmes in
that post-Full Business Case sign-off the
programme enters a yearly funding review and
approvals governance cycle. As part of this
governance cycle the programme will
undertake a Comprehensive Estimate At
Complete (CEAC) activity to confirm:
progress made to date, vs progress
anticipated in the baseline programme
schedule;
actuals incurred to date within the
programme;
Estimate To Complete (ETC) for the
programme;
benefits and deliverables delivered or to
be delivered by the programme; and
variances from the programme Full
Business Case position (to be reviewed
/ approved by the NPCC / APCC
governance bodies).
The completion of this yearly activity will
provide reporting status to key stakeholders
and identification of any variances to the Full
Business Case position. This reporting cycle
will also allow for short to mid-term financial
planning and anticipated usage of funds (i.e.
forecasting usage of Police Transformation
Funds). It is important to note, that through the
governance forums previously identified (ERB
/ NPCC / APCC) interim updates shall be
given on the status of the programme, so this
yearly review cycle is not the only forum for
programme status to external stakeholders.
The yearly funding review cycle does however
force the programme to perform a CEAC
activity on an annual basis, and identify
variances against the baseline Full Business
Case position where appropriate.
A recommendation of this business case is
that the individual projects submit a Full
Business Case for their scope, post the
Transforming Forensics programme Full
Business Case submission and sign-off, and
after their respective (project) planning
activities have completed. The project-level
Full Business Case shall be signed-off within
the programme, assuming that the parameters
of the project Full Business Case (i.e. cost /
schedule / benefit requirements) are within the
sign-off of the programme. The review and
approval of project Full Business Cases within
the programme shall ensure that:
The project has been correctly allocated its
portion of the programme objectives,
requirements and anticipated benefits, and
that these have suitably derived such that
the project has a clear scope for delivery.
The project can deliver these objectives,
requirements and benefits within its
allocated cost profile, and that this cost
profile fits within the overall programme
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profile (which will be particularly important
for projects whose planning activities start a
significant time after programme Full
Business Case submission).
That the project risk profile is correct, the
risks are correctly apportioned between the
programme and project and risk owners /
mitigation plans are correctly assigned and
understood.
The project schedule is adequately
determined, with deliverables and inter-
dependencies baselined and agreed within
the wider programme.
Assurance plans relevant to the project in
hand have been captured and baselined,
such that they support the over-arching
programme assurance plan.
Lastly, a project Full Business Case update
and submission, once approved, will give
each Project Manager clear responsibility
to deliver and execute against a baseline
within their control, as delegated from the
Programme Director.
As projects execute their scope of work, they
provide frequent (monthly) updates to the
programme on their cost and deliverable
status. These updates provide the programme
with up to date status and forecast information,
from which an overall programme status can
be formed. Thus the programme, and its wider
stakeholder, can be appraised of progress.
WIDER DELIVERY OF OPTION 5
Whilst the activities within the Full Business
Case and Transition project will document and
baseline the wider programme approach to
delivering Option 5, it is important to consider
and agree a high-level approach for
programme execution, such that planning
activities can commence and stakeholders
(both internal and external) are aware of how
the programme intends to proceed.
There is a wealth of documented programme
management and project management good
practice and guidance available to UK Central
Government organisations and it is important
to identify the aspects that are applicable to
the delivery of Option 5 and the Transforming
Forensics programme. It is not, however, the
intention of this Outline Business Case to
provide detail on the good practice / process
itself – as these artefacts are readily available
elsewhere.
This section of the Management Case will,
however, define the aspects that are
applicable to the delivery of Option 5. In doing
this, the key aspects of the transition path for
Option 5 (as identified in Appendix B-5) and
the anticipated wider delivery workstreams (as
detailed in Appendix E) have been taken into
consideration. It is envisaged that the delivery
areas detailed in Appendix E would be a
programme organisation in its own right, as
opposed to operating within a ‘lead force’
model, owing to the size, complexity and risk
associated with Option 5.
PROGRAMME MANAGEMENT
The Cabinet Office32
advocates the use of
Managing Successful programmes (MSP) as
best management practice for the delivery of
programmes and there are key aspects of this
guidance that shall be of particular importance
to Option 5. In particular, MSP provides
guidance on:
How to organise the programme to ensure
clear lines of communication and
stakeholder engagement.
How to plan effort to ensure results are
achieved and benefits are realised.
The management of risks, issues,
assumptions and dependencies within a
programme.
Ensuring quality/assurance of the
programme deliverables.
The creation of audit mechanisms to
ensure standards and processes are being
followed.
Importantly, the MSP guidance articulates how
to approach programme management
throughout the full lifecycle (“cradle to grave”),
meaning that this guidance should be adopted
post-Outline Business Case submission, such
that programme aims and benefits can be
captured early – ahead of any project planning
activities.
32
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/best-management-practice-portfolio/about-the-office-of-government-commerce
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In addition, MSP provides significant guidance
on:
transitioning between ‘old’ and ‘new’ ways
of working;
benefits definition, management and
realisation; and
programme planning and control.
All of these are clearly key aspects of Option
5, and as such it is important that the
programme is managed and governed within a
framework (MSP) that acknowledges this from
the outset. In addition, all of the aspects
defined under the MSP guidance are key
tenets of the PRINCE2 methodology, outlined
below. As such, the adoption of these two
guidelines (MSP for programme management
and PRINCE2 for project management) will
ensure that the programme as a whole can be
defined, developed and executed in a
consistent and coordinated fashion.
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
The Cabinet Office33
advocates the use of Projects IN Controlled Environments (PRINCE2) as a best management practice for the delivery of individual projects. PRINCE2 is a project management framework that provides a tailorable method to approach project delivery. Similar to MSP, the PRINCE2 methodology covers the totality of the project lifecycle and through its methodology there are key aspects of the PRINCE2 approach that would align well with both the wider MSP guidance adopted by the Transforming Forensics programme and the needs / requirements of the projects inherent within Option 5. Specifically, PRINCE2 outlines the need for: A Benefits Review Plan (BRP), which in the
context of a project within Option 5 would
tie to the overall Transforming Forensics
Benefits Realisation Plan (i.e. the project
BRP would detail how it anticipates
meeting the Benefits allocated to it within
the programme realisation plan).
A Business Case – as detailed in the
Business Case Governance section of this
33
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/best-management-practice-portfolio/about-the-office-of-government-commerce
Management Case, the validation of project
Full Business Cases is going to be vital in
assuring that the baseline programme Full
Business Case is not exceeded / fails to
deliver the anticipated results. By ensuring
that each project delivers and maintains its
own business case, via the PRINCE2
methodology, ongoing confidence can be
built and maintained in the anticipated
outcomes of the programme Full Business
Case.
PRINCE2 methodology requires project
managers to build and maintain project
artefacts, all of which will be key “feeds” or
“inputs” to the wider programme artefacts,
as outlined in MSP. Examples of these
artefacts include:
Communications Strategies
Configuration Item Records and
Configuration Management Strategies
Project risk registers
The ability to break down Option 5 into multiple
projects will bring other advantages that de-
risk the delivery programme:
By delivering multiple smaller projects the
programme avoids a ‘big bang’ scenario,
where all benefits / key outcomes are tied
to the success of a single milestone.
The transformation can be delivered to
policing in an incremental nature. For
example, changes to frontline activities can
be broken down into logical groupings of
events that happen over time, enabling
better adoption.
Over time, the Programme Director and other
governance members will have the ability to
amend the scope / phasing of Option 5 by
amending the projects within it. Scope could
be added or removed from the programme,
either by adding or removing projects
respectively or changing the deliverables
within them.
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APPENDIX A – STRATEGIC CASE
APPENDICES
This section has been intentionally left blank.
APPENDIX B – ECONOMIC CASE
APPENDICES
B-1 – EXPERT GROUP REPRESENTATION
The following forensic specialisms were represented in the group:
Toxicology
Footwear and Drugs
Firearms
Fingerprint Enhancement Labs
DNA and RapidDNA
Digital Forensics
Performance
Quality and CSI
Innovation
FFLM Update
Fingerprints
SFR
Marketplace
Other attendance:
Home Office
HOB
FDB
College of Policing
NABIS
CLEP
Appendices
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B-2 – TRANSITION ROADMAP FOR OPTION 2 “UTILISE ENABLERS”
Transition Mapping Logic
FBC
This work is anticipated to run over approximately 8 months, although it is not anticipated that it will
require full time activity from all roles to create an FBC for this option.
Transition
A transition team will be established to:
Resource forensic co-ordination roles. Roles would be identified, specified and resourced to own
coordination across the forces in the areas of Policy, Quality Management, Marketplace, R&D and
Forensic Expertise.
Establish the programme. Set up and on board the programme team for delivery of the common
Fingerprint Bureaux process project.
De-risk early delivery. Kick off the early fingerprint planning and force engagement work.
Programme Delivery
The following is commentary on the project delivery activity:
Common Fingerprint Process Project. This would start part-way through the FBC activity, in order
to allow sufficient time to make the tactical changes to the process with all bureaux prior to
decommissioning the IDENT1 system in 2019.
Legacy work
R&D Project. This would continue to run to its conclusion and the outcome will feed into the FBC.
Met Digital Proof of Concept. This would continue to run to its conclusion and the outcome will
feed into the FBC.
Traditional Forensics Rapid Forensics Proof of Concept. This would continue to run to its
conclusion and the outcome will feed into the FBC.
Assumptions
1 The number of Fingerprint bureaux remains as it currently is, no rationalisation activity is required
for transition.
2 There is no impact on T&Cs hence there will be no Union involvement in transition.
3 Business change effort is costed in to the project, which assumes 3 FTEs over 2 years.
4 The HOB programme will provide training to support the use of the new HOB Matcher tool and so,
is not reflected in the transition for this option.
Risks
1 There is a risk that the necessary funding for Transforming Forensics work will not be gained in
time to complete the FP Bureaux service continuity work in time for the IDENT1 decommissioning
date.
2 There is a risk that staff being made available to implement business changes will result in some
operational demand not being met.
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B-3 – TRANSITION ROADMAP FOR OPTION 3 “MAXIMISE THE NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE”
Transition Mapping Logic
FBC
This work would plan the introduction of the forensic support services in detail.
Transition
A transition team will be established to:
Resource forensic coordination roles. Roles would be identified, specified and resourced to own
coordination across the forces in the areas of Policy, Quality Management, Marketplace, R&D and
Forensic Expertise.
Establish the programme. Set up and onboard the programme team for delivery of the common
Fingerprint Bureaux process project.
De-risk early delivery. Kick off the early fingerprint planning and force engagement work.
Programme Delivery
The following is commentary on the project delivery activity:
Common Fingerprint Process Project. This would need to start part-way through the FBC process
to allow sufficient time to make the tactical changes to the process with all bureaux before the
IDENT1 system is decommissioned in 2019.
Set up of support services. Force coordination leads in the areas of Policy, R&D, Quality, Forensic
Expertise and Marketplace services would set up the supporting services, with assistance from the
transition and programme team. This activity is required to commence after the Full Business Case
has concluded, as the latter would inform the operating model for these services and the funding
structure.
Legacy work
R&D Project. Would continue to run to its conclusion and the outcome will feed into the FBC.
Met Digital Proof of Concept. Would continue to run to its conclusion and the outcome will feed into
the FBC.
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Traditional Forensics Rapid Forensics Proof of Concept. Would continue to run to its conclusion
and the outcome will feed into the FBC.
Assumptions
1 The number of Fingerprint bureaux remains as it currently is, and no rationalisation activity is
required for transition.
2 There is no impact on staff terms and conditions, and hence there will be no requirement for trade
union involvement in transition.
3 Business change effort is costed in to the project, which assumes 3 FTEs over 2 years.
4 The HOB programme will provide training to support the use of the new HOB Matcher tool, so the
cost of this is not reflected in the transition for this option.
Risks
1 There is a risk that the necessary funding for Transforming Forensics work will not be gained in
time to complete the FP Bureaux service continuity work in time for the IDENT1 decommissioning
date.
2 There is a risk that staff being made available to implement business changes will result in some
operational demand not being met.
B-4 – Transition Roadmap for Option 4 “Aggregate service delivery”
Transition Mapping Logic
FBC
This work would plan the introduction of the forensic support services in detail.
Transition
A transition team will be established to:
Identify delivery centres. This activity will commence during the development of the FBC as
information regarding costs, locations and availability of skills will be required to inform the FBC.
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Once the FBC concludes, further Delivery Centre work would be required, for example identifying
and securing the premises ready for transition.
Resource forensic coordination roles. Roles would be identified, specified and resourced to own
coordination across the forces in areas of Policy, Quality Management, Marketplace, R&D and
Forensic Expertise.
Set up programmes. Set up and on board the x5 programme teams for delivery of the projects in
each of the super-regions.
Define roles and responsibilities, and commence recruitment and onboarding activities. . These
activities will be required to start once a conclusion has been reached from the FBC activity, not
before, so that funding is approved for the transition activity to commence.
Commence Force Engagement. Commence force engagement work for aggregation activities.
Programme Delivery
The following is commentary on the project delivery activity:
Common fingerprint process project and tactical changes to fingerprint bureaux. These activities
are still needed despite a move to aggregate fingerprint bureaux as IDENT1 will be
decommissioned before forces have moved to an aggregated model. Consequently tactical,
interim changes are still required.
Set up of Support Services. Force coordination leads in the areas of Policy, R&D, Quality, Forensic
Expertise and Marketplace services would set up the supporting services, with assistance from the
transition and programme team. This activity is required to come after the FBC has concluded, as
this would inform the operating model for these services and the funding structure.
Super-regional implementation. Transition will occur in sequence, with overlapping start and end
dates. It is anticipated that it would take approximately two years for each super-region to
complete transition and that overlapping transition for some super-regions is possible in order to
complete aggregation in the shortest realistic time with the resources that would be available to
assist in the transition. This approach will allow capacity to be managed whilst ongoing operational
demands are met.
Legacy work
R&D Project. Would continue to run to its conclusion and the outcome will feed into the FBC.
Met Digital Proof of Concept. Would continue to run to its conclusion and the outcome will feed into
the FBC.
Traditional Forensics Rapid Forensics Proof of Concept. Would continue to run to its conclusion
and the outcome will feed into the FBC.
Assumptions
1 All force forensics will not transition to super-regions at the same time; this will allow operational
policing needs to be met.
2 IDENT1 decommissioning date remains immoveable, and so requires the tactical fingerprint
bureaux changes.
3 The HOB programme will provide training to support the use of the new HOB Matcher tool, so the
cost of this is not reflected in the transition for this option.
4 Suitable premises exist and are available to support five super-regional locations.
Risks
1 There is a risk that the necessary funding for Transforming Forensics work will not be gained in
time to complete the FP Bureaux service continuity work in time for the IDENT1 decommissioning
date.
2 There is a risk that, due to the level of information available at the time of planning, the duration of
the transitions is longer than anticipated for each super-region, and therefore increases costs.
3 There is a risk that staff being made available to implement business changes will result in some
operational demand not being met.
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Virtually managed teams:Management, Enablement and Centres of Excellence for Policy, R&D, QM, SMEs, MarketplaceServices: Advisory, Accreditation
Fore
nsi
c p
roce
ssin
g se
rvic
es
Year 0 (‘17) Year 1 (‘18) Year 2 (‘19) Year 3 (‘20) Year 4 (‘21) Year 5 (‘22) Year 6 (‘23) Year 7 (’24)
OBC FBC
Project: R&D
Identify delivery centres
PoC: Met DF (legal entity)
Force R&Rs
Region 1Region 2
Region 3
Recruitment
Business Change programme team, including PMO
FY ’17/’18 FY ’18/’19 FY ’19/’20 FY ’20/’21 FY ’21/’22 FY ‘22/’23 FY ‘23/’24 FY ’24/’25
On boarding
Set up support services
Region 4Region 5
Tactical changes to all FP bureaux
Project:Plan and
implement common FP
process
IDENT1 decommissioned
Super-region 5
Super-region 4
Super-region 3
Super-region 2
Super-region 1
Consolidation of FP
Consolidation of Face
Rollout of S/M/T
Identity Resolution Bureaux
Biometrics Bureaux
Consolidation of FW
Rollout of Patterns
Consolidation of DF
Duplicate transition per Super-region
Tech integration
Common enabling services integration
Consolidation of TF
Set up R&D capability
Set up training capability
PoC: DF T2 & T3
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B-5 – TRANSITION ROADMAP FOR OPTION 5 “FULL INTEGRATION”
Transition Mapping Logic
FBC
This work would plan the introduction of the forensic support services in detail.
Transition
A transition team will be established to:
Identify delivery centres. This activity will commence during the development of the FBC as
information regarding costs, locations and availability of skills will be required to inform the FBC.
Once the FBC concludes, further Delivery Centre work would be required, for example identifying
and securing the premises ready for transition.
Resource forensic coordination roles. Roles would be identified, specified and resourced to own
coordination across the forces in areas of Policy, Quality Management, Marketplace, R&D and
Forensic Expertise.
Set up programme. Set up and on-board the programme team for delivery of the projects.
Define roles and responsibilities, and commence recruitment and onboarding activities. These
activities will be required to start, once a conclusion has been reached from the FBC activity not
before, so that funding is approved for this activity to be able to commence.
Commence force engagement. Commence force engagement work for integration activities.
Programme Delivery
The following is commentary on the project delivery activity:
Common fingerprint process project and tactical changes to fingerprint bureaux. These activities
are still needed despite a move to aggregate fingerprint bureaux as IDENT1 will be
decommissioned before forces have moved their fingerprint services to a super-regional model.
Consequently, tactical, interim changes are still required.
Set up of Support Services. Force coordination leads in the areas of Policy, R&D, Quality, Forensic
Expertise and Marketplace services would set up the supporting services, with assistance from the
transition and programme team. This activity is required to come after the FBC has concluded, as
this would inform the operating model for these services and the funding structure.
Waves 1-3. Transition will occur in three waves to minimise the impact on daily operational
requirements and maintain service continuity. One transitional wave will complete before the next
commences, so as to ensure the availability of resources to support the transition. Services that
form the activities within each wave have been categorised in each wave depending on immediacy
of the need for those services to change, and to gain sizeable benefits from the changes as early
as possible.
Common Footwear Project. Will occur in advance of the integration of the footwear services
(Waves 1-3), to test the approach to consolidating Footwear processes and technology, to ensure
the most effective processes are used for the future Footwear service.
Training Capability. Occurs as part of Wave 1 transition activities as training will be required for
many following the transition. It can only be set up once the Expertise / SMEs coordinating function
has been setup, so that requirements can be captured holistically.
Cross-Border Intelligence Service. Can commence once the majority of the first wave of transition
activity has been transitioned, as the integration of some forensic services is required to produce
cross-border view.
Digital Forensics T2&T3 Proof of Concept (PoC). This activity will test and identify how central
processing for Digital Forensics will occur at tiers 2 and 3 of delivery, before migrating these
activities from forensics (wave 1), forces/ROCUs (wave 2) and the NCA/others (wave 3) into one
integrated service.
Proof of Concepts for front-line activities. These are needed in advance of their respective
transition activities to test the approach to integration and inform transition plans.
Transition delivery of TF Scene work to new ‘service’. This comprises the transition of CSI activity
to the integrated service model and occurs after the roll out of the scene technology infrastructure.
This is so that staff can get used to conducting their jobs within the new model with the right tools
available. Transition to the new model will occur force by force, or by groups thereof.
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Roll out of single tasking system. This transition activity will move tasking of CSIs to a central
system. It can only start once the CSI staff have been transitioned to the new service activity
occurs. Transition to the new system will occur force by force, or by groups thereof. The timing will
depend on agreement with the respective forces.
Legacy work
R&D Project. Would continue to run to its conclusion and the outcome will feed into the FBC.
Met Digital Proof of Concept. Would continue to run to its conclusion and the outcome will feed into
the FBC.
Traditional Forensics Rapid Forensics Proof of Concept. Would continue to run to its conclusion
and the outcome will feed into the FBC.
Assumptions
1 Force forensics will not transition at the same time, to continue to meet operational policing needs.
2 IDENT1 decommissioning date remains immoveable, and so requires the tactical fingerprint
bureaux changes.
3 The HOB programme will provide training to support the use of the new HOB Matcher tool, so the
cost of this is not reflected in the transition for this option.
4 One of the 3 delivery facilities is available in the police estate for use
Risks
1 There is a risk that the necessary funding for Transforming Forensics work will not be gained in
time to complete the FP Bureaux service continuity work in time for the IDENT1 decommissioning
date.
2 There is a risk that, due to the level of information available at the time of planning, the duration of
the transitions is longer than anticipated for each super-region, and therefore increases costs.
3 St There is a risk that staff being made available to implement business changes will result in
some operational demand not being met.
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B-6 – FULL INTEGRATION SERVICE MODEL (OPTION 5)
This appendix provides details of the service model that was created in order to be able to specify (a)
a potential future organisation and (b) a best case transformation plan (seen in B-5); ultimately for the
sole purpose of developing costs and assessing the benefits.
High Level View
The graphic below depicts the high level areas of the service model, with corresponding details
provided in the table beneath.
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Service Area Description Examples
Back office The back office, also referred to as
operations, is the area of the
business responsible for activities
related to the running of the
organisation. Due to the skills
needed, back office functions do
not need to be physically located
with any of the casework delivery
locations, providing opportunities
to be located in cost efficient
location(s).
• Enabling services such as IT,
Estates, Finance, HR, Legal,
and Security
• Forensic specialists who
manage strategy in areas such
as policy, training, R&D, Quality
Management and the
Marketplace
• Programme teams who are
responsible for delivering
change
Forensic
casework
This area is responsible for
delivering customers’ forensic
requirements, from scene work
through to the provision of forensic
results to investigators and
casefiles to the CJS.
• Scene investigation support
• Traditional forensics
• Digital forensics
• Identity resolution
• Scene reconstruction
• Work management
Forensic
intelligence
This area is responsible for the
collection, analysis, and
exploitation of information in
support of law enforcement and
national security objectives.
• Value-add services that provide
links across people networks,
forensic disciplines and cases.
User case
services
These services will be accessed
by ‘users’, i.e. police investigators,
victims and witnesses, to gain or
provide information or evidence
relating to a crime.
• Information services regarding
how to protect the crime scene,
how to find out the progress of
a forensic case, and what the
progress a forensic case is.
User
intelligence
services
These services will be accessed
by users who require the analysis
and exploitation of data.
• Information services such as
how can we relate these
people, exhibits and scenes via
forensic analysis across all the
disciplines
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Mid-Level View
The graphic below shows the service areas within the scope of transformation
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Customer Interface View
The graphic below highlights the key user interfaces into the service for front-line staff, victims and
witnesses.
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Low Level View
The graphic below shows further detail of the elements that form each forensic service area for this
option.
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B-7 – ECONOMIC CASE – DATA SOURCES
Force/Collaboration selection
A sample comprising 11 forensic support units was selected following a force profiling exercise to
ensure that a representative sample from England, Wales and Northern Ireland were chosen given
the limited time and resources available. This exercise drew on census data and the “Most Similar
Groups” framework developed by the Home Office, ACPO, HMIC and industry partners. Additional
considerations were taken into account for the profiles, which included whether the forensic support
unit was part of collaboration or not, total volume of crime per region, how many specialist forensics
services were outsourced and what forensics case management software was used. Importantly,
forensic support unit willingness to engage in the TF project was also taken into consideration initially.
The outcome of the profiling exercise identified 24 individual constabularies from England, Wales and
Northern Ireland (some forming part of collaborations) that were selected to receive questionnaires
and visits. Additionally, British Transport Police (BTP) and the National Crime Agency (NCA) were
selected for data collection due to their profiles, but were not visited.
The full list of FSUs engaged in the data collection activities were:
Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire & Cambridgeshire
Dyfed Powys
East Midlands Special Operations Unit (EMSOU)
Greater Manchester (GMP)
Norfolk and Suffolk
Police Service Northern Ireland (PSNI)
Staffordshire
South West
Warwickshire and West Mercia
West Midlands
Yorkshire and the Humber (YatH)
BTP
NCA
Data Collection & Evaluation
During November 2016 – January 2017, a team of analysts from BAE Systems visited the selected
FSUs. They were supported on the majority of visits by Home Office colleagues and Police Service
subject matter experts (SMEs).
Whilst onsite at the FSUs, the analysts interviewed in excess of 76 Forensic Science SMEs, and
elicited qualitative information in addition to the quantitative data.
Outstanding data not available during the visits was returned to BAE Systems by the start of March
2017. Following data cleansing activities and mapping to project scope elements, additional analysis
of “As-Is” (the here and now picture of the forensic science landscape) was conducted to support the
assumptions for the future “To-Be” (future landscape) design activity.
There is no single holistic database for forensic data, nor is there a standard tool or process for the
submission and collation of FSU performance data. To overcome this issue, the data collected by the
Transforming Forensics Project was augmented from the following sources:
CIPFA (Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy)
ADR (Annual Data Return)
HMIC - Value for money profiles & Police Effectiveness
Home Office Science - CAST (Centre for Applied Science and Technology)
FMIT (Framework Management Information Tool)
Additional reports including those from the National Audit Office
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For the data that was collected, the lack of standardisation meant that it was not always possible to
compare and analyse similar data sets. For example, whilst the questionnaire asked for volumes to
be recorded at exhibit level, volumes of exhibits collected at crime scenes may in reality be collated
and recorded into cases for submissions. Similarly, submissions to labs for analysis may be recorded
at case, docket, test, exhibit or item level.
The collation of data for the 13 forensic support units (11 selected for visits and additional data from
BTP and NCA) provided an evidence base which was extrapolated to provide a National picture.
CIPFA data was fundamental in providing the most suitable scoping metrics.
Data Modelling
A master data set for all 43 forces in England and Wales, PSNI, BTP and the NCA was created (46
entities in total). This provided the foundation for a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) cost model. The
ROM was developed over several weeks with input from the BAE Systems Design Team and Home
Office, to enable costs to be estimated for the 5 proposed options in the Outline Business Case.
Fundamental to the creation of the ROM was the development of a set of assumptions and forecasts.
A key consideration for the ROM model was the fact that Digital Forensics is sometimes conducted
outside of the forensic support units and within departments such as High Tech Crime Units (HTCU),
Cyber Crime Units and Intelligence departments. As these departments fall outside the remit of the
forensic support units, their activities, and budgets are not always collated in a centralised or
managed process. As a result, representative Digital Forensics data was not always collected during
forensic support unit visits, therefore data provided by the Home Office from a Digital Questionnaire
circulated in summer 2016 was used in the ROM modelling instead.
Some significant costs incurred by forensic support units are not fully recharged to the forensic
departments i.e. premises and some IT, but are absorbed by the wider force. For ROM modelling
such costs were extrapolated from whole force IT and premises CIPFA data.
The output from the data collection and analysis activities has provided input to the Economic Case
for the TF OBC. Additionally, the team’s findings have been collated into an Observations and
Analysis (O&A) spreadsheet with additional qualitative evidence from force visits.
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B-9 - OPTIMISM BIAS AGAINST OPTION 5
Cap
ital Expe
nd
iture
Op
eratin
g Expe
nd
iture
Equ
ipm
en
t / De
velo
pm
en
tO
utso
urcin
gC
om
me
ntary
Co
mp
lexity o
f Co
ntract Stru
cture
22
Op
tion
5 will like
ly invo
lve m
anage
me
nt o
f mu
ltiple
year fram
ew
ork co
ntracts.
Late C
on
tractor In
volve
me
nt in
De
sign5
5
Pe
r the
Co
mm
ercial C
ase n
arrative, in
du
stry has n
ot b
ee
n in
volve
d in
the
OB
C
effo
rts to d
ate.
Po
or C
on
tractor C
apab
ilities
--
-
Go
vern
me
nt G
uid
elin
es
--
-
Disp
ute
and
Claim
s Occu
rred
--
-
Info
rmatio
n m
anage
me
nt
--
-
Oth
er (sp
ecify)
--
-
De
sign C
om
ple
xity8
2
Op
tion
5 rep
rese
nts a sign
ificant ch
ange
from
the
'as-is', bo
th in
term
s of b
usin
ess
and
tech
nical d
esign
com
ple
xity. Disaste
r Re
cove
ry (DR
) will n
ee
d to
be
con
side
red
in th
e ge
ograp
hic lo
cation
s cho
sen
un
de
r Op
tion
5.
De
gree
of In
no
vation
2-
The
Tech
nical d
esign
migrate
s Fore
nsics to
SaaS base
d so
lutio
ns
Enviro
nm
en
tal Imp
act-
--
Oth
er (sp
ecify)
--
-
Inad
eq
uacy o
f the
Bu
sine
ss Case
2-
-
Large N
um
be
r of Stake
ho
lde
rs6
8
Siginifican
t amo
un
t of P
olicin
g, Fore
nsics an
d H
O Stake
ho
lde
rs. De
tailed
analysis
of p
erso
nn
el asp
ects w
ill be
req
uire
d in
the
imp
lem
en
tation
of O
ptio
n 5 (e
.g.
TUP
E / Pe
nsio
n C
on
tribu
tion
s etc)
Fun
din
g Availab
ility5
-Th
e O
BC
has a large
relian
ce o
n P
RTB
Fun
din
g
Pro
ject M
anage
me
nt Te
am5
-
The
PM
team
is be
ing in
stantiate
d at th
e p
oin
t of FB
C w
ork startin
g, an assu
me
d
mix o
f po
lice / co
nsu
ltant staff h
as be
en
assum
ed
, wh
ich m
ay pro
ve to
be
inco
rrect.
Po
or P
roje
ct Inte
lligen
ce-
--
Oth
er (sp
ecify)
--
-
Pu
blic R
elatio
ns
--
-
Site C
haracte
ristics-
--
Pe
rmits / C
on
sen
ts / Ap
pro
vals-
--
Oth
er (sp
ecify)
--
-
Po
litical8
5
The
de
gree
of ch
ange
, and
amo
un
t of stakh
old
ers, m
ean
s that O
ptio
n 5 w
ill ne
ed
to care
fully m
anage
d / d
elive
red
.
Econ
om
ic-
--
Legislatio
n / R
egu
lation
s5
--
Tech
no
logy
55
Oth
er (sp
ecify)
--
-
Total
5327
Up
pe
r Bo
un
d O
ptim
ism B
ias (%)
Co
ntrib
uto
ry factors to
Up
pe
r Bo
un
d O
ptim
ism B
ias (%)10
Pro
cure
me
nt
Pro
ject Sp
ecific
Extern
al Influ
en
ces
Clie
nt Sp
ecific
Enviro
nm
en
t
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APPENDIX C – FINANCIAL CASE APPENDICES
This section has been intentionally left blank.
APPENDIX D– COMMERCIAL CASE
APPENDICES
APPENDIX D1 - CURRENT COMMERCIAL OPERATING MODEL “AS IS” ASSESSMENT
Headlines
The classic situational analysis (SWOT) indicates:
Strong foundations in national strategic and market focus
Opportunity to create competition / greater use of technology in digital forensics
Challenges in potentially unravelling recently awarded contracts
Potential challenges in securing sufficient buy in to a new transformational model
Key Police Forensic spending data points:
Total Investigative Support expenditure is falling and remains under pressure
3rd
party spend on Traditional Forensic Services is falling as a result of recent competitive procurement
activity, increased demand management, and new operating models
The in-house Police Forensics market is continuing to grow
External spending on Digital Forensic services is being captured for the first time. Expectations are that
this will continue to grow given crime trends, global market trends, advances in technology and pressures
on internal Police forensic teams
A request was placed on the programme to obtain 2015/16 CIPFA data but this is not yet available.
Market concerns raised by various stakeholders include:
Sustainability of price reductions / higher SLA’s / ever higher standards of accreditation. UK generally
considered to have low cost / high service specification and rapid response model relative to other
comparable developed countries.
Lack of consistency in accreditation across internal / external supply channels, need to reinforce
commitment of all to meeting formal standards and supporting guidance. This may ultimately contribute
to sub optimal criminal justice outcomes.
Cost of compliance / investment required to achieve accreditation considered high.
Shortage of available accreditation bodies / resources available to meet the accreditation deadlines set by
the Regulator.
Lack of statutory powers available to the Regulator have left the Regulator asserting a weaker position
than before the Home Office Forensic Science Strategy existed, compounded by delays in addressing
this through Parliament. Proxy controls through contract T&C have been used to support Regulator
provisions.
Lack of cost transparency and allocation of overhead treatment may be creating a bias toward in house
provision.
Inability of forces to breakdown costs such as buildings and IT to evidence full cost of in – house
forensics provision.
Perceived public subsidy to Police in house labs.
Framework bureaucracy and service delivery fragmentation / inefficiency associated with the expired
National Framework model, but not a view shared to the same degree by all.
Risk of long term “partnerships” with certain suppliers effectively constraining the underlying market,
freezing out innovators into a Tier 2 sub contract role at best, or no role at all.
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Limited competition in Traditional Forensics, over 90% of the Police market serviced by three suppliers
and LGC in a dominant position.
Lack of direct access opportunities for SME’s / new entrants to showcase innovative new solutions,
particularly in Digital Forensics, with senior policing and police commercial decision makers.
Digital Forensic innovators potentially seeing non law enforcement channels as more attractive business
to pursue, potentially creating a resource / skills retention challenge / innovation gap for Forces in the
future.
Economics of delivery mean that collaboration between Forces (not just in procurement but in pooling
forensic and administrative resources) is essential in a 43 Force model, as exemplified in some of the
new models.
Economics of delivery mean that collaboration between Forces (not just in procurement but in pooling
forensic and administrative resources) is essential in a 43 Force model, as exemplified in some of the
new models.
Traditional Forensics
High concentration amongst 3 suppliers, reinforced by recent awards.
Little evidence of appetite from new suppliers to enter this market
Evolving from National Framework legacy to a number of new models which have yet to fully bed in. No
comparative data available to evaluate relative performance to date.
Digital Forensics
Market for external services is less mature
Services often delivered through Hi Tech crime units, not necessarily forensics
Traditional suppliers still featuring prominently in early spend analysis of Digital Forensics buying
behaviour.
Two significant collaborative contracts require further consideration
Metropolitan Police (Open to all Forces)
South West Forensics Hi Tech Crime Unit (Open to 19 Forces plus PSNI)
Two TF demonstrators in Rapid DNA / Mobile Forensics technology may drive national requirements
Significant Forensic Service Buying Collaborations
Four collaborative contracts are leading the market, with around 70% of spend
Metropolitan Police Service
EMSOU
North East
West and South Coast Consortium
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Analysis
Key Data
Key Police Forensic spending data points are captured in Figure 1 below.
Total Investigative Support expenditure is falling and remains under pressure
3rd
party spend on Traditional Forensic Services is falling as a result of recent competitive procurement
activity, increased demand management, and new operating models
The in-house Police Forensics market is continuing to grow
External spending on Digital Forensic services is being captured for the first time. Expectations are that
this will continue to grow given crime trends, global market trends, advances in technology and pressures
on internal Police forensic teams
Figure D1: Police forensic spending key data trends
Data Point £M (All ex VAT) Period Trend Source
Total
Investigative
Support
Expenditure
(43 Forces)
£405M
2013/14
CIPFA Police Objective Analysis
(POS) annual data may be
distorted by overhead treatment,
underlying costs in £320M - £350M
range.
(2014 – 16 CIPFA POS data not yet
received)
External
Spend on
Traditional
Forensic
Services
£60M - £90M
2013 - 16
NAO Report, “December 2014,
confirmed via CIPFA (POS) Data
and 2015/16 FSMG spend data
Size of In-
house
Police
Forensics
market
£113M
£122M
2013/14
2014/15
CIPFA (POS) data against a limited
range of services.
(2015/16 CIPFA POS data not yet
received)
Spending on
Digital
Forensic
Services
£9.6M (3rd
Party,
plus £6.5M Capex)
£39.6M (staff costs)
2015/16
CLEP Programme Digital Forensics
Initial Briefing Paper v.3.1 (January
2017)
These data points provide a consistent historic spend picture to support broad framing of the Transforming
Forensics case. The NAO report identifies that the Home Office collects a range of data, primarily using
Force / CIPFA returns. All available data has been consolidated via the Home Office Economic / Finance
case lead and used to underpin the financial baseline used in the development of the TF OBC.
Data limitations have been well documented in various papers published between the HO, NAO, and House
of Commons Science and Technology Committee. The key focus now needs to be in establishing future
commercial arrangements which are flexible, relevant, accredited and scalable. Four overlapping drivers are
key to the Commercial Case:
service continuity and more efficient delivery of traditional forensic services,
meeting anticipated continued growth in digital forensics demand,
keeping pace with technological change and accreditation standards,
supporting wider service transformation through new operating models.
Forensic Supply Chain
The Home Office Forensic Science Strategy sets the scene around the external supply chain for both
Traditional and Digital Forensic products and services.
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A mixed landscape of forensic delivery models exists, ranging from those based at an individual force level,
models based on well-developed collaborative/regional structures, to some more recent operating models
linked to wider partnership approaches. The Forensic Science Strategy sets an ambition for police forces to
have a national approach to forensic science delivery that will provide a more strategic relationship with the
forensic supply chain.
A Forensic Marketplace Strategy Group has been established under the NPCC to provide strategic oversight
of the relationship with the market, and to mitigate risk of market failure / disruption as Police Forces seek to
transform their services. The Terms of Reference for this group include the following key objectives:
Maintaining continuity and quality of forensic science supplies to forces,
Ensuring and retaining public confidence in the contribution forensic science makes to the CJS,
Ensuring value for money for the tax payer,
Enabling & supporting a sustainable and effective competitive market for Forensic Laboratory services.
Overall State of the Market
Despite documented concerns in Parliament 34
over recent years, since the closure of the Forensic Science
Service, the Forensic Marketplace Strategy Group has advised of no significant exit / closure of any of the
established UK forensic service providers. However, the Group does still consider the sustainability of the
market to be a high priority.
Concerns remain and several common themes have emerged from discussions with stakeholders on both
client and supply side of the relationship. A brief summary of the issues highlighted through these
stakeholder interactions includes the following “non-attributed” observations:
Sustainability of price reductions / higher SLA’s / ever higher standards of accreditation. UK generally
considered to have low cost / high service specification and rapid response model relative to other
comparable developed countries.
Lack of consistency in accreditation across internal / external supply channels, need to reinforce
commitment of all to meeting formal standards and supporting guidance. This may ultimately contribute
to sub optimal criminal justice outcomes.
Cost of compliance / investment required to achieve accreditation considered high.
Shortage of available accreditation bodies / resources available to meet the accreditation deadlines set by
the Regulator.
Lack of statutory powers available to the Regulator have left the Regulator asserting a weaker position
than before the Home Office Forensic Science Strategy existed, compounded by delays in addressing
this through Parliament. Proxy controls through contract T&C have been used to support Regulator
provisions.
Lack of cost transparency and allocation of overhead treatment may be creating a bias toward in house
provision.
Inability of forces to breakdown costs such as buildings and IT to evidence full cost of in – house
forensics provision.
Perceived public subsidy to Police in house labs.
Framework bureaucracy and service delivery fragmentation / inefficiency associated with the expired
National Framework model, but not a view shared to the same degree by all.
Risk of long term “partnerships” with certain suppliers effectively constraining the underlying market,
freezing out innovators into a Tier 2 sub contract role at best, or no role at all.
Limited competition in Traditional Forensics, over 90% of the Police market serviced by three suppliers
and LGC in a dominant position.
34
House of Commons Science & Technology Committee, September 2016 http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/science-and-technology-committee/news-parliament-2015/forensic-science-report-published-16-17/
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Lack of direct access opportunities for SME’s / new entrants to showcase innovative new solutions,
particularly in Digital Forensics, with senior policing and police commercial decision makers.
Digital Forensic innovators potentially seeing non law enforcement channels as more attractive business
to pursue, potentially creating a resource / skills retention challenge / innovation gap for Forces in the
future.
Economics of delivery mean that collaboration between Forces (not just in procurement but in pooling
forensic and administrative resources) is essential in a 43 Force model, as exemplified in some of the
new models.
However, there are also significant opportunities from which to build a platform for transformation. Firstly, the
fact that key suppliers are already embracing and investing in new ways of working under the latest
collaboration model contracts is significant. Secondly, the shift in demand toward Digital Forensics
represents an opportunity to re-establish a strong and sustainable competitive marketplace to support UK
law enforcement.
Traditional Forensics
Since the closure of the Forensic Science Service, most external expenditure has been routed via the
National Forensic Framework Next Generation (NFFNG), and its predecessor the National Forensic
Framework Agreement (NFFA).
The NFFNG was set up in 2012 and supported delivery of 13 service Lots via 7 main suppliers. The NFFNG
expired in mid-2016 but there is still a significant “ragged end” of existing business working through the
framework pending the introduction of various replacement solutions implemented by groups of Forces.
The NFFNG was not a mandated national framework. However, with the exception of the North-East region,
the Forensic Science Strategy asserts that all forces use or have used the framework. This view is strongly
supported by the findings of the Transforming Forensics data collection template. The majority of forensic
services purchased under the NFFNG have been acquired as part of collaborative regional competitions with
standardised specifications and regional aggregated volumes. However, the forensic landscape has evolved
considerably since the introduction of these national frameworks. Police Forces are delivering more services
in-house and new types of commercial partnerships have emerged in some police regions.
The Outline Business Case development has not had direct visibility of the business case details
underpinning any of the more substantial recent contract awards / proposed awards so the evidence base
and supporting the Transforming Forensics Economic Case assumptions cannot yet be informed by such
material. The Home Office Commercial team, working with the Forensic Marketplace Strategy Group, has
delivered a report (embedded below) intended to compare the respective contract models recently
established by EMSOU and West South Coast Consortium (19 Forces), with a view to providing guidance to
other Forces as to the relative merits of different approaches.
Major NFFNG replacement contracts awarded by MPS, EMSOU, WCC, and North East effectively tie up the
traditional market until 2020 - 2024 with LGC, Cellmark and Key Forensics continuing to dominate. Figure 2
below highlights the market concentration. With the most recent contract awards, LGC have further
cemented their position as market leader by market share. All of these models go live in 2017/18 so
comparative operational data is not yet available.
Figure D2: Traditional Forensics 3rd
party spend by supplier and region
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In terms of market structure, there is a high concentration ratio amongst a few established suppliers to the
Police and law enforcement sector in England and Wales, predominantly LGC, Key Forensics, and Cellmark
in the world of Traditional Forensic services. 72% of spend is accounted for under four collaborations
supplied by these companies. The most significant new collaborative contract awards in 2017 commit
business through to various dates in the 2020 – 2024 period, potentially longer with extension options.
These three major suppliers, along with the Defence Science and Technology Laboratories, and in house
Police forensic services in Eire, Northern Ireland and Scotland, have formed the Association of Forensic
14%Key Forensic
42%LGC
38%Cellmark
Traditional forensics
spend (£64M) by
supplier
(Source: 2015/16 FMSG data)
6%South West
9%Eastern
6%East Mids
26%Metropolitan
24%WCC
15%North East
7%West Mids
Traditional forensics
spend (£64M) by region
(Source: 2015/16 FMSG data)
11%South West
2%Other
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Service Providers (AFSP) 35
. This organisation appears limited in membership / scope but provides an
industry interface to the Regulator.
LGC has a long association with the UK Government Sector and has hosted the function of the “Laboratory
of the Government Chemist” 36
for over 100 years. The Government Chemist function today sits within the
Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. The name LGC was adopted on privatisation in
1996 and the firm has since grown approximately 10-fold in manpower terms, as well as acquiring many
other smaller companies. LGC enjoys the dominant share (43%) of the England and Wales Police
Traditional Forensic services business, with Cellmark (37%) and Key Forensics (14%). The remaining
suppliers from the NFFNG; ESG, Arrogan, Randox, pick up a very small (6%) of the remaining business.
It is notable that when the nearest event to a retender of the NFFNG came to market, via the WSCC open
OJEU competition in Q4 2016, no new suppliers elected to bid, indicating the market is relatively closed /
unattractive for new entrants, even more so given that larger companies such as LGC and Key have
diversified their portfolio of services to create broader appeal, potentially to the exclusion of more niche
providers. Given the length of contracts entered in recent months, covering >70% of the total England and
Wales Police market for the next 3 - 7 years, potentially longer, this situation is unlikely to change.
Table 1 below summarises the broad scale and scope of the most significant recent contract awards
representing over 70% of the Traditional Forensics marketplace spend.
35
Association of Forensic Service Providers, http://afsp.org.uk/ 36
LGC website http://www.lgcgroup.com/our-science/government-chemist/#.WLcUU4XXLg8
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Table D1: Summary Table of Recent Contracts. (Capturing over 70% of total Forces spend)
Major Existing Forensic Contract Awards
Collaboration/Organisation Collaboration Scope Contract
Term
Key features
The Metropolitan Police
(Digital Forensics)
Open to all Forces in
England, Wales,
Scotland and PSNI.
Plus others such as:
British Transport
Police, Civil Nuclear
Constabulary, and UK
Border Agency.
Awarded in
Feb 2017.
Seven years
plus three
year option
Contract won by MASS as
“Managed Service Provider”. Tiers
of service: Levels 1 and 2 -
Frontline Self Service Hubs, Level
3 – Technical Services including
Case work development, Research
and Development/Consultancy and
lab based forensic analysis of
digital devices. Estimated value
£15m to £230m
The Metropolitan Police
(Traditional Forensics)
Available beyond The
Met only to London
Fire and Emergency
Planning Authority,
Greater London
Authority and
Transport for London
Awarded in
Feb 2017.
Seven years
plus three
year option
Contract won by LGC as “Managed
Service Provider”. Caters for
innovation such as Rapid DNA in
Custody Suits within 1 year and
Rapid DNA at crime scene within 3
to 5 years. Estimated value £75m
to £111m
East Midlands SOU – FS
(Traditional Forensics)
Open to Derbyshire,
Nottinghamshire,
Lincolnshire
Leicestershire and
Northamptonshire
Police Forces
Awarded
January
2017, with
Go-Live on
1st April
2017.
Contract
term: Seven
years plus
three year
option.
Partnering arrangement awarded
to Cellmark. Approx. 94% to be
delivered by Cellmark with the
balance by sub-contractors.
Primarily Traditional Forensics but
with limited Digital (training and
consultancy, provided by
Intaforensics). Est Value: £35 over
ten years. 10% cashable savings in
Year 1and 9.6% savings predicted
for Year 2. Significant back office
savings e.g. 240 invoices pa to 12
pa.
West and South Coast
Consortium (W&SCC)
(Traditional Forensics)
Nineteen Forces (A&S,
BTP, Cheshire,
Cumbria, D&C, Dorset,
Dyfed, Glous, GMP,
Gwent, Hants, Mersey,
N Wales, S Wales,
Surrey, Sussex, TVP,
Wilts) Also available to
PSNI although not part
of the Consortium.
Contract
terms;
3 years
from 1 April
2017 with
optional 2
year
extension
Contractual model of category 8
Lots and 2-5 suppliers per Lot.
Suppliers either allocated a specific
Force or a percentage of Force
business. Main suppliers: Key
Forensics, LGC and Cellmark.
Standard specifications across all
Forces. Accreditation as advised
by Regulator, UKAS and Home
Office. Pricing based on Service
codes and consistent across all
Forces. Spend estimated at £23m
pa based on 2015/16 data.
Savings in year 1 estimated at 25%
(PACE sample price reduction from
£17-£22 to £12.80 as example)
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North East Consortium
(Traditional Forensics)
Seven Forces (West
Yorkshire, North
Yorkshire, South
Yorkshire,
Humberside,
Cleveland,
Northumbria, Durham)
Five years
plus 2
optional
extension.
Awarded
Sept 2013
The Forces have been
collaborating since the closure of
the FSS. Contractual model of five
Lots (PACE, Volume crime
including DNA, Drugs, Toxicology,
Case Work). LGC sole supplier,
apart from niche services such as
Fire or archaeology. Lots 1 to 4
paid for on a case by case basis,
Lot 5 (Casework) paid as lump
sum (£500k pm). Spend estimated
at £10pa with discount structure
applying at spend over £10m.
Seven individual contracts but
pricing consistent across all seven.
Pricing fixed for five years,
adjustments agreed in light of
experience e.g. new drug driving
legislation. No single contract
manager – monthly meetings with
individual Forces, West Yorks
manage on behalf of other
Yorkshire Forces and Humberside.
Digital Forensics
For Digital Forensics, the approach to acquiring / delivering service is less mature and represents a
significant opportunity to cultivate a much more competitive marketplace strategy. There is a varied
approach to the way services are procured and delivered today. In some forces, digital forensics are
delivered through forensic departments; in others, it is part of a high-tech crime unit or intelligence bureaux.
Most forces have invested in providing Digital Forensics in-house, but the growth in demand means they
often use external suppliers when internal resource cannot meet demand or to clear a backlog. This leads to
external digital services being procured in an ad hoc manner, which may not represent good value for money
over the longer term. There is also an argument that the pace of technological change may make it
increasingly difficult for in house
capabilities to keep up.
The Collaborative Law Enforcement
Programme (CLEP) has undertaken
a survey pulling together, for the first
time, the national landscape of Digital
Forensics spending and procurement
activity across policing, drawing data
from 41 Forces plus several other law
enforcement organisations. The
findings are captured in a
comprehensive paper entitled Digital
Forensics Initial Briefing Paper
v3.1 (January 2017), intended to
assist the TF project by identifying
priority areas for follow up. Figure 4 below shows the reported 2015 / 16 distribution across 3rd
party spend
(£9.6M), capex (£6.5M) and (£39.6M) internal staff costs.
Source: 2015/16 CLEP Survey
Internal staffing 71%
17%
12%
3rd party
Capex
Figure D4: Police Spending on Digital Forensics
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The Commercial Case adopts this work as a foundation layer product to support ongoing development of
category management 37
strategy for forensic products and services. The NPCC sponsored CLEP
Programme is fundamentally driven by the principles of standardisation, aggregation, and collaboration. As
such the continued development of this research provides a sound base from which to develop future
category management strategy for all of the Options under consideration.
The NPCC research identifies that the market for Digital Forensics is a potentially more competitive
landscape than traditional forensics, this is supported by wider market data. However, in the case of larger
service providers the line is becoming somewhat blurred between traditional and digital service provision,
with some companies handling both, consequently sweeping up a significant share of the overall police
market available today. The remaining players may be more constrained to specialist equipment and / or
services. The breakdown of recorded spend in 2015/16 by supplier, further confirms the current role of LGC
and Key Forensics as potentially dominant suppliers in the digital space too, although 73 suppliers in total
are identified. Cellebrite and MSAB take a combined 60% share on mobile device kiosk technology. The
data points and estimates created through this initial research into Digital Forensics spending patterns
should be treated with caution given this is the first attempt to capture such data. This work will need to be
reassessed and repeated as part of a focused MI sub category strategy over a sustained period of time.
The research goes on to identify 39 contracts for procuring relevant equipment and services of which only 7
are open to collaborating Forces, with 1 national agreement. In additional, there are a limited range of digital
forensic service capabilities and equipment / licencing options available through the Crown Commercial
Service Frameworks and Digital Marketplace. These contracts cover a variety of operating model scenarios
and the natural next step would be to consolidate evidence / data points to support future procurement
intelligence, VFM and performance benchmarking and pipeline development. This material can then be
packaged into customer / user facing decision support collateral championed by the Forensic Marketplace
Strategy Group.
Forensic Marketplace Strategy Group research in 2015 38
indicated little appetite from Forces to become
suppliers to other Forces using their respective in sourced capabilities.
There is no consolidated view currently available with respect to the future market spend / demand profile for
either traditional or digital forensic services. However, the various TF pilot / demonstrator projects may
provide some helpful volumetrics in this regard since some of the new contracts and fee structures are
predicated on a view of volumes of case referrals. The Forensic Marketplace Strategy Group is developing a
view to inform future work, including 2017/18 spend plans, but this has not yet been made available to
support the OBC.
The Metropolitan Police Service (MPS) has potentially broken new ground in its recent (January 2017)
contract award to MASS 39
(Cohort plc). The contract is structured around three service lots. The contract
has a seven year term (plus potential for three year extension). OJEU value range is £15M - £230M as the
contract is open to all Forces. There are no guaranteed volumes. The three service lots are:
Frontline Self Service Equipment
Frontline Supported Service
Lab & Development Services
37
Category Management overview based on one of many available approaches available in the marketplace http://www.futurepurchasing.com/category_management/5_step_process 38
Forensic Marketplace Commercial Strategy & Tactical Planning Workshop 18th February 2015
39 MASS news release http://mass.co.uk/about-us.asp#sec5
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The MPS contract supports a Transforming Forensics kiosk “Proof of Concept” collaboration project with
Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Kent and Essex Police Forces. The Forensic Marketplace team
has intelligence supporting the view that many other Forces may see benefit in adopting this solution.
The South West Forensics Hi Tech Crime Unit hosts a further multi Force contract for Digital Forensic
services, open to 19 Forces plus PSNI.
West Yorkshire Police is working with LGC in delivering a Rapid DNA “Proof of Concept site over the period
April 2017 – December 2017. The “Proof of Concept” uses technology supplied under distribution rights
owned by Key Forensics. The technology is similar to that to be deployed via the Metropolitan Police Service
and may ultimately lend itself to a national buy to optimise lifecycle costs and availability of future features
and functionality.
Given underlying crime trends, it is reasonable to assume the trajectory of growth in Digital Forensics is likely
to outstrip the decline in demand for / spend on Traditional Forensic services. These factors, coupled with
any further level of outsourcing and the costs of accreditation, are likely to sustain or increase the overall
level of spending on external forensic services for the foreseeable future.
Global Digital Forensics Market
Rising cases of cybercrime and terrorist activities across the globe are the key factors driving the growth of
this market, evidenced in various free to view market commentaries.40
High rate of internet penetration and
increasing dependency on it for communication has gained the attention of criminals and hackers. Thus,
there has been a surge in internet-related crimes and misuse of government and corporate IT assets costing
huge losses. This is turn generates a specific need for Digital Forensic tools for gathering and examining
digital data, and for presenting it as evidence in a court of law. The digital forensics market is expected to
grow significantly over the coming years.
The global Digital Forensics market is typically segmented by five major domains:
computer forensics,
network forensics,
cloud forensics,
mobile device forensics
database forensics and others.
The global Digital Forensics market by end user industry is represented by seven segments: law
enforcement, healthcare, education, banking, financial services and insurance, information technology,
transportation and logistics, defence and aerospace. The law enforcement segment contributes the largest
market share. Moreover, terrorism and security threats are prevented on the basis of digital traces, thus
digital forensics is becoming a vital tool for defence and law enforcement.
Market Forecasts indicate this is a c. USD $2bn market potentially growing to over USD $3bn by 2020, with a
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 11% -12% year on year, dominated by the North America region
contributing around 50% of the total market.
The most notable solution developers in the global Digital Forensics market, consistently identified in
published reports are Access Data, Guidance Software, Oxygen Forensics, FireEye, Paraben, Nuix, MSAB,
40
Various market commentaries referred to …..
http://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/digital-forensics-market-230663168.html
http://www.transparencymarketresearch.com/digital-forensics-market.html
http://www.insightpharmareports.com/Affiliated-Reports/IndustryArc/Digital-Forensics-Market/
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Cellebrite, Digital Detective Group, LogRhythm, Binary Intelligence, Asr Data, Lancope. Most of these are
none UK centric but some do have a global / regional presence in the UK and Europe.
In the UK there appears to be a growing competitive market of organisations providing Digital Forensic
services amongst a suite of offerings focused on Information Assurance more generally. The Forensic and
Policing Services Association (FAPSA) 41
has many of these organisations, a mixture of SME’s and more
established / broader based companies, amongst its membership. However, many of these companies may
currently lack accreditation credentials or sufficient conviction in plans to obtain them.
The Forensics Expo 2017 42
to be held in London Olympia places a significant emphasis on Digital
Forensics, albeit much of it product rather than service focused. The breadth of companies exhibiting
indicates a wide range of technology / innovation which may need to be given a platform / route to market
other than by simply working behind the established forensic suppliers to Police Forces or waiting for
successor procurements.
The Government Digital Marketplace 43
may provide another Force neutral route to facilitate wider market
creation in Digital Forensic services in the future. Proactive use of this channel, driven via the Forensic
Marketplace Strategy Group may provide ready access to additional services, specified to agreed standards
/ accreditation levels. This marketplace would operate alongside and / or within existing non-exclusive
Force contracts, thereby keeping open access to innovation, through regular refresh of the Marketplace
itself, and sustaining a level of competition as the demand for digital forensic services develops in both
volume and capability terms.
In Digital Forensics, law enforcement is competing in a much wider industry pool for talent, demand,
resources and innovation etc. than the traditional Forensics marketplace. There are competing demands
arising from the limited pool of qualified resources and pace of technological change. These factors need to
be considered by the Forensics Marketplace Strategy Group when framing the future relationship with the
market, and in assessing the ability of internal Police resources to keep pace with both demand and
innovation.
Forensic Science Regulator
The Forensic Science Regulator was established in 2007 to advise Government and the CJS on quality
standards in the provision of forensic science. The Regulator ensures that forensic science services across
the CJS in England and Wales are provided within an appropriate regime of quality standards. Scotland and
Northern Ireland have their own CJSs but follow the Forensic Science Regulator’s standards. The Forensic
Science Regulator published her first Annual Report in December 2015.
The 2016 Annual Report44
, published in January 2017, raises a red flag around funding of science and
Force application of standards, reinforcing the following key concern …
“In this, my second annual report, I have updated my assessment of risks to quality in the CJS, reported on
progress against last year’s priority areas and defined priorities going forwards.
A year on, it is clear that the single biggest challenge to achieving my aim is financial: the costs associated
with complying with and being assessed against the standards.
To be clear, the standards are not some unachievable ‘gold-plated’ ideal; they are the minimum standards
expected of any reliable forensic science organisation, drawing from general good scientific practice and also
learning from errors and omissions of the past and of other industries.”
41
FAPSA website link http://www.fapsa.org.uk/ 42
https://www.forensicseuropeexpo.com/ 43
https://www.digitalmarketplace.service.gov.uk/g-cloud/search?q=Digital+Forensics 44
Forensic Science Regulator Annual Report 2016
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/581653/FSR_Annual_Report_
v1.0.pdf
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The Forensic Science Strategy reinforces the importance of a robust quality regime.
“Operating within a robust quality framework provides the CJS with an assurance of the legitimacy of the
evidence being submitted. Complying with international standards, such as ISO1702511, provides a
framework that assesses competence, quality and effectiveness in meeting customer requirements.
Accreditation to these standards by an independent body demonstrates that the processes within which
evidence has been obtained and analysed have been independently assessed to ensure appropriate
validation of the methods used and competency of the staff who conduct the analysis.”
Key relevant standards
a. ISO 17025 (General requirements for the competence of testing and calibration laboratories)
b. ISO 17020 (Scene of crime)
Consistent quality across an organisation enables more cost-efficient operations. The absence or failure of
quality management systems could lead to massive costs from investigating and correcting miscarriages of
justice.
The Forensic Science Regulator has published the Codes of Practice and Conduct which provide additional
guidance, context and interpretation of the standards for the UK. Accreditation of forensic science is carried
out by the UK Accreditation Service (UKAS). This process of independent assessment provides an
accountable and transparent process that strengthens public trust.
ISO17025 is the international standard used to confirm the competence of a laboratory. It specifies the
general requirements for testing and allows laboratories to develop management systems for quality,
administrative and technical operations.
Under previous commercial arrangements, all commercial FSPs delivering services under the NFFNG are
required to be accredited to ISO17025 standards for each of the services they provide. However, this
requirement for accreditation does not apply to services purchased outside of the framework, such as digital
forensics or services purchased by the defence.
Police forces which carry out in-house forensic provision have agreed a timetable with the Forensic Science
Regulator within which they will obtain accreditation to the same standards as those required by external
providers.
Digital forensics is a growing and dynamic area but it is still possible to apply the same standards as for
other forensic science disciplines to achieve accreditation. The rapid pace of technological change and the
introduction of new devices mean that new methods are required in order to extract information. However,
the use of an overarching quality management system is still essential to ensure the validity of the methods
and the competence of the staff.
Other Spend Categories
Other potential spend categories to be considered but not dealt with in this paper include:
Forensic Archiving
Back office systems, e.g. Case Management, which may be outside direct scope of TF
R&D
Training and specialist resourcing / recruitment
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APPENDIX D2
This section has been intentionally left blank.
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APPENDIX E – MANAGEMENT CASE
APPENDICES
APPENDIX E1 – SUMMARY TRANSITION PATH ASSOCIATED WITH OPTION 5
Virtually managed teams:Management, Enablement and Centres of Excellence (policy, QM, SMEs, marketplace)Services: Advisory, Accreditation
Fore
nsi
c P
roce
ssin
g se
rvic
es
PoC: TF Rapid Forensics
Year 0 (‘17) Year 1 (‘18) Year 2 (‘19) Year 3 (‘20) Year 4 (‘21) Year 5 (‘22) Year 6 (‘23) Year 7 (’24)
OBC FBC
Project: R&D
FP bureaux migration to central processing locations
Tactical changes to all FP bureaux
Migration of Facecapability from PND to single
building
Consolidation of Footwear
service delivery
Rollout of S/M/Tidentification
capability
Rollout of Patternidentification
capability
Migration of DNA
Rollout of strategic DNA
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3
Biometrics Bureaux
Identity Resolution Bureaux
Identify delivery centres
Plan & Design
LLP & Fit
Migration 1
Traditional Forensics + ‘Digital’ Capability (Not DF!)
PoC: Met DF (legal entity)
PoC: DF T2 & T3 central processing across force
types
PlanMigrate from forensics
(DF T2-T3)Migrate from force / ROCUs
(DF T2-T3)
DF Central Processing
Industrialised central processingScene support services
Spe
cia
list
De
vel’
nt Set up R&D
capability
Set up training capability
Forw
ard
loca
tio
ns
Transition delivery of TF scene work (people) to new ‘service’
Logistics service development
PoC: Logistics
PoC: Frontline TF and DF across force types
Project: Investigator process impact
assessment
Roll out DF T1 self-service kiosks
Roll out single tasking system for Traditional Forensics scene work
Wave 1
Wave 2
Wave 3
Project:Plan &
common FP process
Project:Common
F/W process
Force R&Rs
IDENT1 decommissioned
PoC: Cross border tasking
Migrate others, e.g. NCA (DF T2-T3 )
Wave 1 Wave 2 Wave 3
Roll out TF Rapid Technology
Roll out of Digital Scene Capture Tech.
Building 1Building 2
Building 3
Logistics service rollout
Recruitment
Change programme team, including PMO
Migration 2 Migration 3
LLP & Fit
LLP & Fit
Transition into 1
building at a time
FY ’17/’18 FY ’18/’19 FY ’19/’20 FY ’20/’21 FY ’21/’22 FY ‘22/’23 FY ‘23/’24 FY ’24/’25
Tactical integration of work management systems
On boarding
Set up support services
Industrialised central processingScene support services
Set up cross-border
intelligence service
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APPENDIX E2 – OPTION 5 INTERIM PROGRAMME TEAMS AND WORKSTREAMS
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APPENDIX E3 – OPTION 5 BAU DELIVERY AREAS
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GLOSSARY
The following acronyms are used throughout this outline business case to abbreviate key components. The
full description of these acronyms is below:
Acronym Defined
ACAS Advisory, Conciliation and Arbitration Service
ADR Annual Data Return
APCC Association of Police and Crime Commissioners
BAU Business As Usual
BRP Benefits Realisation Plan
BTP British Transport Police
CAST Centre for Applied Science and Technology
CC Chief Constable
CEAC Comprehensive Estimate to Complete
CIPFA Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy
CJS Criminal Justice System
CLEP Collaborative Law Enforcement Programme
CPS Crown Prosecution Service
CSE Child Sexual Exploitation
CSI Crime Scene Investigator / Investigation
DII Digital Investigation and Intelligence
DNA Deoxyribonucleic acid
ERB Executive Review Board
FBC Full Business Case
FLC Forensic Leaders’ Conference
FMIT Forensic Management Information Tool
FMSG Forensic Marketplace Strategy Group
FSP Forensic Service Provider
FSR Forensic Science Regulator
FSS Forensic Science Service
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FTE Full Time Equivalent
GMP Greater Manchester Police
HMIC Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary
HO Home Office
HOB Home Office Biometrics
HR Human Resources
ITIL Information Technology Infrastructure Library
MoD Ministry of Defence
MPS Metropolitan Police Service
MSC Model Service Contract
MSP Managing Successful Programmes
NAO National Audit Office
NCA National Crime Agency
NLED National Law Enforcement Data
NPCC National Police Chiefs' Council
NPV Net Present Value
OBC Outline Business Case
PCC Police and Crime Commissioner
PD Programme Director
PoC Proof of Concept
PRTF Police Reform and Transformation Fund
PSNI Police Service of Northern Ireland
PTF Police Transformation Funding
R&D Research and Development
ROI Return on Investment
SLA Service Level Agreement
SME Subject Matter Expert
SRO Senior Responsible Owner
TUPE Trade Union Protection of Employment