Why and How This Century’s Agriculture Should Be Different from 20th Century Agriculture

National Seminar on Resource Managementand Sustainable Development

College of AgricultureBapatla, AP, January 28, 2004

Norman UphoffCornell International Institute for Food, Agriculture and Development (CIIFAD)

20th Century ‘Modern’ Agriculture Has Been the

Most Successful in History• Per capita food production, 1960-2000,

increased by 30%• Real food prices in constant terms during

this period decreased by 48%• Agriculture was an ‘engine of growth’ over

four decades worldwide• Capital and labor resources generated in

agricultural sector supported industry

Per Capita Food Production, 1961-2000, and Agricultural

Commodity Prices, 1960-2000

However, ‘modern agriculture’ is not necessarily the ultimate development

• Productivity gains achieved with heavy use of external inputs have slowed down

• Negative externalities are becoming more evident -- environmental, social costs

• How likely are we to make further progress in 21st century doing ‘more of the same’?

• Technologies, policies, and institutions are needed that will be better suited to our present and future situations

We Need to Raise the Productivity of LAND

Grain area p/c in India• 1950 0.28 ha• 2000 0.10 ha• 2050 0.06 ha

We Need to Raise the Productivity of WATER

• WATER is becoming scarcer, at least for agricultural uses and certainly scarcer in per capita and in per area terms

• Estimated annual water deficit: -- India 104.0 billion m3

-- China 30.0 billion m3

-- U.S. 13.6 billion m3 (S. Postel, 2001)

Previous Productivity Gains Were Made with Increased Use of

CHEMICAL INPUTSFertilizers, pesticides, insecticides,

fungicides, herbicides, etc. are now

-- giving diminishing returns while -- creating environmental hazards and health risks with

-- rising costs of production and

-- continuing problems of efficacy

Recent Changes in Input Use

World Fertilizer Use, 1950-2000

Global Pesticide Sales, 1950-1999 (on other side)

Changes in Fertilizer Productivity

World Grain Production

Fertilizer Response Use

Ratio

1950 631 14 -

1984 1649 126 9.1:1

1989 1685 146 1.8:1

1993 1719 130 Not calculable

Problems with Agrochemicals• Rising Costs --

due to supply/demand dynamics for petroleum

• Environmental and Health Hazards -- become more evident all the time

• Declining Efficacy -- ‘chemical treadmill’ caused by increasing resistance

21st Century Agriculture Needs to Be• More PRODUCTIVE in terms of :

– LAND -- per unit area– LABOR -- per hour/per day– WATER -- per cubic meter– CAPITAL -- more profitable

• More ENVIRONMENTALLY BENIGN– More robust in face of CLIMATE CHANGE

• More SOCIALLY BENEFICIAL– ACCESSIBLE to the poor, reducing poverty– Providing greater FOOD SECURITY– Contributing more to HUMAN HEALTH

These Expectations Call for a

‘Post-Modern’ Agriculture

which is more productive and profitable, while being more benign environmentally and more socially beneficial, i.e.,

a Greener Revolution

Post-Modern Agriculture• Is not like ‘post-modernism’ in literature

& humanities, which reject ‘modernity’• P-M agriculture will build on the same

scientific foundations as modern agric.• It will be more fundamentally grounded

in biological science than current agric.• Biotechnology will be part of P-M agric.

but agroecology is its basic foundation• ‘Post-modern’ agriculture will be the

most modern agriculture, not ‘backward’

20th Century Agriculture• Built on advances made in engineering

starting in 18th century [farm implements and equipment, powered machinery]

• And on knowledge from chemistry from middle of 19th century [esp. fertilizers]

• 20th century accelerated improvements made in genetic potentials thru breeding

• The basic approach was to increase and improve the INPUTS made in agriculture

• Modern agriculture is ENERGY-intensive -- reducing/displacing labor at expense of land

‘The Green Revolution’• Represented a synthesis and culmination

of many developments in engineering [ mechanization ] + chemistry [ fertilizers and pest control ] + genetics [ HYVs ]

• The world, and particularly India, would be a much less liveable place without the benefits of the Green Revolution

• The emerging alternative paradigm of ‘post-modern agriculture’ is not a rejection of what the Green Revolution contributed, but opens new opportunities

‘The Green Revolution’ Is Reaching Certain Limits

• Productivity gains are decreasing -- slowdown in yield increases since end of 1980s

• Diminishing returns to fertilizer and other inputs are raising farmers’ costs of production -- evident decline in the productivity of inputs

• Costs of inputs are rising as subsidies are cut; petroleum prices are likely to rise in future

• Water availability for agriculture is diminishing -- we need less ‘thirsty’ methods of production

• Adverse impacts on environment and human health are rising [agrochemicals, water quality]

‘Modern Agriculture’ Is Not Sustainable

Fortunately, there are alternatives that are• Scientifically sound, not just fads or fancy• Environmentally benign, or even enhancing• Profitable over time, and often immediately• Employment-generating for social welfare• More beneficial for human health• Useable at various scales of production, and• Evolving and improving

– as more becomes known about them, and – as more farmers and researchers work with them

AGROVISION 2004Will show what ‘post-modern’ agriculture could

become by considering what is known about:• Agroecological innovations around the world• Organic farming experience and opportunities• Use of biofertilizers, biocides, organic inputs• ‘The tillage revolution’ in South Asia• The System of Rice Intensification (SRI)• Use of green manures and cover crops• Farming systems with permanent vegetative

cover (developed by CIRAD)

Common ThemesThese various approaches are all together

complementary, having shared concerns:• A different view of SOIL, stressing its life

and health -- not regarded as an inert repository for seeds, fertilizer, etc.

• An appreciation of MICROORGANISMS and other SOIL BIOTA -- as creators and maintainers of soil fertility

• Greater attention paid to plant ROOTS as the foundation for agricultural success

Modern Agricultureand Biotechnology Focus on One Species at a Time

This ignores the all-important CONTEXT of interactions among plants, among soil organisms, between plants and soil organisms, and of these with animals

AGROECOLOGY captures the benefits of synergy among these various organisms, capitalizing on the potentials of their existing genomes as they interact with their environments to produce phenotypes

Modern Agricultureand Biotechnology Have

Become Overly ‘Genocentric’Productivity and success in agriculture depend

equally on THREE major factors:• GENETIC POTENTIAL -- the starting point• INPUTS -- from farmers and environment• MANAGEMENT -- by farmers to get best results

from inputs and to deal with the environment, to create the best fit among genetic potential, inputs and environment

Agriculture is a highly skilled profession

Pie chart showing 3 factors in equal proportions

Example of the System of Rice Intensification (SRI)

Achieves yield increases of 50-100% -- or more:

• Without changing varieties• Without requiring chemical inputs

(fertilizer or pesticides)• Using about 50% as much water• And only 10-20% as much seed• With higher grain quality

Single Cambodian rice planttransplanted at 10 days

Rice field in Cuba -- 14 t/ha

SRI plant with 87 fertile tillers atCFA Camilo Cienfuegos, Cuba

Two rice plants in Cuba -- Same variety: 2084 (Bollito) Same age: 52 DAP

SRI field in Sri Lanka -- yield of 13 t/hawith panicles having 400+ grains

Two rice fields in Sri Lanka -- same variety,same irrigation system, and same drought :

conventional methods (left), SRI (right)

Analysis of SRI in Sri Lanka SRI Standard

• Yields (tons/ha) 8 4 +88%• Market price (Rs/ton) 1,500 1,300 +15%• Total cash cost (Rs/ha) 18,000 22,000 -18%• Gross returns (Rs/ha) 120,000 58,500 +74%• Net profit (Rs/ha) 102,000 36,500 +180%• Family labor earnings Increased with SRI• Water savings 40-50%

Data from Dr. Aldas Janaiah, economist at IRRI, 1999-2002, now working at Indira Gandhi Development Studies Institute in Mumbai, data from interviews with 30 SRI farmers in Sri Lanka, October 2002

Analysis of SRI in Sri LankaSurvey by IWMI of 60 randomly-selected SRI farmers:

Save seeds 100% Reduced demand

More tillers 98% for fertilizer 86%

Reduced need Lower input costs 85%

for herbicides 92% Higher yield 83%

Less lodging 91% More milling output 77%

Higher seed quality 91% Water productivity + 90%

Water saving 90% Profits > double

Less pest and Risk of net loss reduced

disease problem 88% Equal accessibility to poor

The basic idea of SRI is that RICE PLANTS DO BEST when(A) Their ROOTS can grow large and deep

because the plants have been• transplanted carefully, without trauma,

and there is• wider spacing between plants, giving

canopies and roots more room and light

(B) They grow in SOIL that is kept• well aerated, with abundant and diverse• soil microbial populations and fauna

Root Activity in SRI and Conventionally-Grown Rice

Nanjing Agricultural University (Wang et al. 2002)Wuxianggeng-9 variety

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AZOSPIRILLUM POPULATIONS, TILLERING AND RICE YIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT CULTIVATION PRACTICES

AND NUTRIENT AMENDMENTSResults of replicated trials at the Centre for Diffusion of Agricultural Intensification,

Beforona, Madagascar, 2000 (Raobelison, 2000)

Azospirillum in the

CLAY SOIL Rhizosphere(103/ml)

Roots(103/mg)

Tillers/plant

Yield(t/ha)

Traditional cultivation,no amendments

25 65 17 1.8

SRI cultivation, withno amendments

25 1,100 45 6.1

SRI cultivation, withNPK amendments

25 450 68 9.0

SRI cultivation, withcompost amendmts

25 1,400 78 10.5

LOAM SOILSRI cultivation, withno amendments

25 75 32 2.1

SRI cultivation, withcompost amendmts

25 2,000 47 6.6

SRI is COUNTER-INTUITIVE• LESS CAN PRODUCE MORE by utilizing

the potentials and dynamics of biology :• Smaller, younger seedlings become larger,

more productive mature plants• Fewer plants per hill and per m2 can give

more yield under SRI growing conditions• Half the water can give a greater yield and• Increased output is achieved with fewer or

no external inputs -- “feed the soil > plant”Get new phenotypes from existing genotypes

The contributions of soil microbial activity need to

be taken more seriously

“The microbial flora causes a large number of biochemical changes in the soil that largely determine the fertility of the soil.” (DeDatta, 1981, p. 60, emphasis added)

Water is becoming a greater constraint in agriculture

Soil degradation is reducing arable areas

Water storage is best done in the soil, is greatly increased by soil biota

Degraded soil is deficient more in biological than in chemical terms

Soil erosion is due to mismanagement, ploughing has many adverse effects

AGROVISION Presentations on Agroecological Approaches

• Will explain principles and give evidence on how productivity can be increased -- profitably and sustainably -- by intelligently capitalizing on biological processes and interactions

• SYSTEMS THINKING is required to understand and take advantage of these new opportunities

Post (most) modern agriculture