020111 marylhurst workforce success
DESCRIPTION
Gail Krumenauer, an economist with the Oregon Workforce and Economic Research Division present new labor market information to Marylhurst University students and alumni at a Workforce 21 event on February 1, 2011.TRANSCRIPT
Preparing for Workforce Success in Oregon’s Current Economic Climate
Presented by: Gail KrumenauerFebruary 1, 2011
Overview: Preparing for Workforce Success
Knowing where we are: still in a difficult economic climate
An educated guess of where we’re going:• Short-term forecasts and expectations• Occupational projections 2008-2018, and where we
expect growth• Factors that enhance competitiveness in the labor
market
Useful tools along the way: resources at QualityInfo.org
The Recession is Over?
Defining A Recession
To a Household or Individual• Employment and Income• Personal and Community
Across the U.S. Economy• Decline or Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Visually, you would expect a recovery period to look about exactly opposite of this.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1,540,000
1,560,000
1,580,000
1,600,000
1,620,000
1,640,000
1,660,000
1,680,000
Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t Ra
te (
se
as
on
ally
ad
jus
ted
)
To
tal N
on
farm
Pay
roll
Em
plo
ymen
t (s
easo
nal
ly a
dju
sted
)
Total nonfarm payroll employment
Unemployment rate
End of Recession
Nationally we see growth in our Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2008q4 2009q1 2009q2 2009q3 2009q4 2010q1 2010q2 2010q3
Qu
art
er-
to-Q
ua
rte
r C
ha
ng
e i
n U
.S.
GD
P
Portland at the lower-end of Metro area recovery
Source: Brookings Institute
We have seen some positive employment growth in recent months…
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10
Em
plo
ym
en
t Ch
an
ge
Ov
er
the
Mo
nth
, O
reg
on
Sta
tew
ide
Employment increase laregly due to temporary Census hiring.
Increases due largely to private-sector hiring.
…but the effects of recession will last for years.
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
1990:1 1992:1 1994:1 1996:1 1998:1 2000:1 2002:1 2004:1 2006:1 2008:1 2010:1 2012:1 2014:1 2015:4
Em
plo
ym
en
t (T
ho
us
an
ds
)
Moving Beyond Recession … Oregon Total Employment
We are here
4th Quarter 2009
1st Quarter 2015
Source: Office of Economic Analysis, Department of Administrative ServicesDecember 2010
Where We’re Heading: Short- and Long-term Employment Growth
Vacancies: Fall 2010 Survey ResultsTotal vacancies statewide = 30,652
Occupational TitleTotal
VacanciesVacancies 60+
Days
Registered Nurses 759 105
Postsecondary Teachers, All Other 366 79
Mental Health Counselors 169 78
Advertising Sales Agents 91 61
Teacher Assistants 513 57
Coaches and Scouts 310 54
Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 233 51
Electrical Engineers 101 49
Accountants and Auditors 259 49
Engineers, All Other 100 47
Physical Therapists 132 47
Business Operations Specialists, All Other 319 42
Occupational Therapists 101 39Supervisors and Managers of Production and Operating Workers 174 35
Loan Officers 193 34
Industrial Engineers 97 34
Customer Service Representatives 649 33
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 123 32
Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 881 31
Over half of vacancies 60+ days in professional and business services or health care
Management, business, and
financial13%
Professional and business services
35%
Health care18%
Service7%
Sales and related8%
Office and administrative support
6%
Farming, fishing, and forestry
1%
Construction and extraction
1%
Installation, maintenance, and
repair4%
Production4%
Transportation and material moving
3%
Long-Term Vacancies by Occupational Group, Fall 2010
Help-Wanted OnLine Ads Rebounding
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
He
lp W
an
ted
On
line
Ad
s (in
tho
usa
nd
s)
January 2008 - November 2010
The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Online Data Series(Seasonally Adjusted)
Oregon - Total Ads Oregon - New Ads
Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLineTM (HWOL)
Future Hiring: One-third of employers expect to hire, mostly for turnover openings
For 2011: Job Growth Projected in Most Industries
-4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
Professional and Business Services
Health Care and Social Assistance
Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities
Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade
Financial Activities
Computers and Electronics
Educational Services
Other Services
Metals and Machinery
Food Manufacturing
Information
Other Durables
Construction
Other Nondurables
Transportation Equipment
Federal Government
Logging and Mining
Wood Products
Leisure and Hospitality
State Government
Local Government
Expected Job Changes by Industry Sector, Oregon Statewide4Q 2010 through 4Q 2011
2011 Hiring Forecast* in a Variety of Occupations
Occupational Title Net Change
Total for All Occupations 24,843
Retail Salespersons 816
Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor-Trailer 736
Office Clerks, General 553
Registered Nurses 608
Customer Service Representatives 653
Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 593
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 504
Janitors and Cleaners 405
Wholesale and Manufacturing Sales Reps., Excl. Technical and Scientific Products 442
Cashiers 430
General and Operations Managers 386
Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 261
Supervisors and Managers of Office and Administrative Support Workers 301
Receptionists and Information Clerks 299
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 299
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 291
Accountants and Auditors 272
Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 235
Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 269
Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 248
Occupational Hiring Forecast: 4Q 2010 Through 4Q 2011Based on December 2010 OEA Forecast and 2008 Staffing Pattern
*Employment Department estimates based on OEA forecast.
Long-term Projections
• More than 430,000 openings from 2008 to 2018 to replace current workers as they …• change occupations early in their careers,• or retire – baby boomers are nearing retirement
• Add to this the more than 160,000 openings due to economic growth, and we expect …• about 600,000 total occupational openings*
*This doesn’t include job openings due to people changing jobs but not their occupations.
What do we mean by “total job openings?”
• In the context of these projections, we mean:Growth openings – net gains from more firms being created or
growing that firms going out of business or decliningPLUS
Replacement openings – caused by individuals permanently leaving occupations due to retirement, death, disability, or occupational transfer.
• In addition to the above, there are many – perhaps a million each year – turnover openings. These create opportunities for individuals and headaches for businesses, but do not represent “need” in terms of education/workforce planning.
Services industries will add many jobs, especially health care services
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
Ambulatory health care services
Food services and drinking places
Professional and technical services
Hospitals
Nursing and residential care facilities
Administrative and support services
Social assistance
Local governemt education
Food and beverage stores
General merchandise stores
Forecast Employment Growth, 2008-2018
Oregon's Industries Adding Most Jobs, 2008-2018
Manufacturing industries are expected to see the greatest losses
-1,500 -1,200 -900 -600 -300 0
Telecommunications
Logging
Publishing industries, except internet
Transportation equipment manufacturing
Federal government
Wood product manufacturing
Machinery manufacturing
Primary metal manufacturing
Computer and electronic product manufacturing
Paper manufacturing
Forecast Employment Losses, 2008-2018
Oregon's Industries Losing Jobs, 2008-2018
Projected job growth also varies by region
Projected Job Growth by Workforce Region2008 - 2018
Growth Rate5% - 8%9% - 13%14%
1
14
13
12
11
10
9
6
8
7
5
4
3
2
15
All occupational groups are projected to add jobs…
Important Notes
Relatively low-wage occupations add the most jobs.
Professional and health care significantly contribute to high-wage job growth.
124,392
89,196
87,388
71,957
51,199
47,852
42,341
26,825
17,311
15,546
11,849
8,425
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000
Service
Office and Administrative Support
Professional and Related
Sales and Related
Health Care
Management, Business, and Financial
Transportation and Material Moving
Production
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Construction and Extraction
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
Nonclassifiable
Total Openings by Occupational Group, Oregon Statewide 2008-2018
…and many projected openings will be high wage…
…but pay varies widely by occupational group.
Service and administrative support openings no longer top the list, once we focus only on high-wage, high-demand jobs.
60,012
45,650
34,121
21,987
17,814
12,738
10,422
10,161
8,531
7,108
1,564
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
Professional and Business Services
Management, Business, and Financial
Health Care
Sales and Related
Office and Administrative Support
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair
Construction and Extraction
Transport and Material Moving
Service
Production
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry
Projected Total Openings for High-Wage, High-Demand Jobs by Occupational Group, 2008 - 2018
“Usual Suspects” List of Occupations
Occupational TitleTotal
Vacancies
Total Help-Wanted
OnLine Ads
2011 Net Change
Forecast
# of Employers
Future Hiring2008-2018
ProjectionsMedian Wage Minimum Education Requirement
Stock Clerks and Order Fillers 1,924 202 291 28 5,008 $11.55 Short term on-the-job training
Cashiers 1,285 175 430 33 20,095 $9.51 Short term on-the-job training
Retail Salespersons 1,267 1,821 816 116 23,370 $10.46 Short term on-the-job training
Sales Representatives, Services, All Other 881 456 144 1 2,107 $20.70 Moderate term on-the-job training
Registered Nurses 759 2,589 608 18 12,718 $35.62 AssociateCombined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 657 165 -69 19 12,868 $9.26 Short term on-the-job training
Customer Service Representatives 649 1,207 653 43 9,875 $14.48 Moderate term on-the-job training
Personal and Home Care Aides 555 445 137 23 2,322 $10.57 Short term on-the-job training
Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 528 462 269 11 2,386 $13.89 Moderate term on-the-job training
First-Line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers 435 1,202 228 9 5,272 $16.88 Related work experience
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 403 355 299 8 4,541 $12.70 Short term on-the-job training
Tellers 387 428 157 23 3,235 $11.91 Short term on-the-job training
Postsecondary Teachers, All Other 366 334 90 4,518 $70,708* Master's
Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 356 1,120 736 113 6,091 $18.06 Postsecondary training
Computer Specialists, All Other 272 1,088 48 15 1,659 $32.22 Postsecondary trainingMedical Records and Health Information Technicians 269 233 63 1 1,238 $16.01 Postsecondary training
Accountants and Auditors 259 660 272 22 3,410 $27.74 Bachelor'sJanitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 249 231 405 37 7,292 $11.32 Short term on-the-job training
Waiters and Waitresses 244 199 -108 38 20,290 $9.93 Short term on-the-job training
Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 241 347 504 28 6,001 $16.34 Postsecondary training Medical Assistants 241 403 169 20 2,730 $15.54 Moderate term on-the-job training
*annual, all others are hourly
Factors that Enhance Competitiveness for Job Openings
Education Pays!
Higher education also associated with lower unemployment rates.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
All Persons
<HS Diploma
HS Diploma
Some College
Assoc. Degree
Bach. Degree
Master's Prof. Degree
Doctorate
Un
em
plo
ymen
t Ra
te
Me
dia
n W
ee
kly
Ea
rnin
gs
U.S. Median Weekly Earnings by Educational Attainment - 2009 (age 25+)
2009 Median Weekly Earnings
2009 Unemployment Rate
Source: U.S. Dept of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Postsecondary training will only continue to be increasingly more important.
2008 2018 Growth Replacement Total
Employment Employment Openings Openings Openings
Advanced degree 56,379 64,570 8,191 11,893 20,084
Bachelor's 279,344 301,438 22,232 65,659 87,891
Associate 65,907 77,067 11,231 14,260 25,491
Postsecondary training 167,351 181,866 14,582 34,067 48,649
Total 568,981 624,941 56,236 125,879 182,115
Related work experience 151,678 163,607 12,038 31,581 43,619
Long-term on-the-job training 110,837 115,187 4,996 21,757 26,753
Moderate-term on-the-job training 264,052 282,929 20,875 58,560 79,435
Short-term on-the-job training 643,991 710,503 66,973 186,961 253,934
Total 1,170,558 1,272,226 104,882 298,859 403,741 Share with postsecondary requirement 48.6% 49.1% 53.6% 42.1% 45.1%
Almost Half of Oregon's Total Job Openings Will Require Education Beyond High School
Advanced degree8%
Bachelor's degree33%
Associate degree10%
Postsecondary training
15%
Long-term on-the-job training
8%
Moderate-term on-the-job training
9%
Short-term on-the-job training
2%
Related work experience
15%
Total High-Wage, High-Demand Job Openings by Minimum Education Requirement, Oregon Statewide, 2008-2018
Two-thirds of job openings in high-demand occupations paying at least $50,000 per year require some postsecondary training …
* Due to growth and replacement.
… and 95% of the “above $50,000” high-demand jobs desire post-secondary training if you want to be competitive.
* Due to growth and replacement.
Advanced degree22%
Bachelor's degree35%
Associate degree15%
Postsecondary training
23%
Related work experience
5%
Total High-Wage, High-Demand Openings by Competitive Education Requirement, Oregon Statewide, 2008 - 2018
We’ve updated Oregon’s high-wage, high-demand occupations lists.
The statewide list…
… includes 222 occupations (out of more than 700 total)
… accounts for over 230,000 of the 600,000 projected total openings between 2008 and 2018
… includes occupations that pay at least $15.97 median hourly wages
Need skills that employers want, in addition to education requirements.
Skill FrequencyProcess records and maintain forms and files 1,071,977Use basic mathematics 979,208Work as a team member 791,952Provide customer service 713,450Follow safety procedures 646,645Obtain information from clients, customers, patients or others 611,524Use computers to enter, access and retrieve data 599,796Maneuver heavy objects 521,887Use algebra 485,606Prepare reports in timely manner 467,939Use correct grammar, punctuation and spelling 457,907Apply health and sanitation standards 394,123Apply mathematical principles to accounting, bookkeeping or budgeting 386,958Understand, use, and communicate technical information 356,328Process and prepare business forms 317,730Operate fax machines, copiers, printers, and other office machines 295,461Make presentations 291,178Apply quality assurance techniques 285,503Provide customer service using telephone 284,086Receive payments and make change 276,122
Top 20 Skills Requested by Employers in All Occupations, Oregon, 2008
Boomers
Gen Y
vs.
Gen X
The ability to work across generations is essential
Same Workplace, Different Perspectives
DEMANDAcceptDislikeChange
MastersComfortableChallengedTechnology
Sept. 11, 2001, “Great Recession”
Watergate, Iran (Contra and
Hostages)
JFK Assassination, Civil Rights
Defining Issues
WHY do I need to learn
this?
Tell me HOW to do it
Tell me WHAT to do
School and Training
Gen YGen XBoomers
Resources Available at QualityInfo.org
Occupational Information Center
Detailed info on more than 700 occupations!
Current job openings
Employment projections
Wages
Industries of employment
Training providers
Educational Information Center
Program reports with training in your area!
Institutions
Number of Graduates
Relevant Occupations
Employment Projections
High-Wage, High-Demand jobs on the Web
To view all the High-Wage, High-Demand, and High-Skill jobs:
• Go to www.QualityInfo.org• Click On Occupation Explorer under Tools• At the bottom of the page, click on
High Demand, High Skill, High Wage Occupations
The Take Home Messages
• The effects of “The Great Recession” (2007-2009) will continue to impact the workforce for years.
• Vacancies and hiring are occurring! We expect modest employment growth through 2011, and roughly 9 percent statewide between 2008 and 2018.
• Even those occupations that aren’t growing will need new workers, to replace those who leave. Replacement openings will outnumber growth openings by roughly 2:1.
• The majority of high-wage and high-demand jobs require postsecondary education, especially in this competitive job market
For the latest Workforce & Economic Research news:
www.QualityInfo.orgwww.OregonEmployment.Blogspot.com
www.twitter.com/OrEmployment
Gail Krumenauer, EconomistOregon Employment [email protected]
(503) 947-1274