02 the top 40 top down indicators pdf

ECONOMIC TODAY - THA Strong Economy Begins with A Strong, Well-Educated Workforce - Bill Owens

The Top

INVESTING FROM THE TOP DOWN

A Macro Approach to Capital Markets

ANTHONY CRESCENZI

Top-Down Indicators

40

WEALTH EFFECTS


Changes in household wealth reliably predict changes in consumer spending

federalreserve.gov statistical releases

levels tables

the most recent quarterly release

FEDERALRESERVE

RESEARCH


The most valuable information anywhere on topics of importance and relevance toInvestors.

The Fed’s 12 reserve banks.

San Francisco Fed’s Web site

www.frbsf.org

THE YIELD SPREAD

BETWEEN TWO-YEAR

T-NOTES AND THE

FED FUNDS TARGET


An excellent means of capturing turning points in the financial markets.

The fed funds target is the rate set by the Fed at its regularly scheduled FOMC meetings.

Federalreserve.gov

The statements http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm

THE TREASURYYIELD CURVE


Treasury yield curve has reliably foreshadowed major events and turning points in both the economyand the financial markets.

The 2007–2008 credit crisis and the simultaneous economic slowdown.

https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates-bonds/government-bonds/us

FREE-TRADE AGREEMENTS


Opportunities for investors

http://www.sice.oas.org/default_e.asp

https://ustr.gov/

INITIALJOBLESS

CLAIMS


Data on initial jobless claims are released every Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor.

https://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

INDUSTRIALMATERIALS

PRICE INDEXES


Industrial materials prices are tightly correlated withglobal economic activity.

Reuters/Jefferies CRB Raw Industrials index

http://www.crbtrader.com/crbindex/default.asp

http://www.joc.com/data/pricesindexes. shtml.

The JOC Industrial Price index is produced by the Journal ofCommerce and the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

INTERNATIONAL RESERVES


Shifts in InternationalReserves can speak volumes about a country’s economic situation, its economic outlook, and its ability to counter both economicweakness and unexpected shocks.

The International Monetary Fund’s Web site.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/index.aspx

PURCHASING MANAGERS

INDEX(PMI)


Since the end of World War II, the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly purchasing manager’s index, which until January 2002 was known as the National Association of Purchasing Managers (NAPM) index, has accurately portrayed economic conditions in the United States and has served as a superior leading economic indicator.

https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm?SSO=1

DEMOGRAPHICS


It is a fact of human and social life that people tend to engage in certain types of behavior at different points along the life cycle.

The U.S. Census Bureau

Trends in health and aging:http://www.cdc.gov/HealthyLiving/

http://www.census.gov/en.html

AUTOMOBILE PRODUCTION


Sense of the economy

Major economic services such as Stone & McCarthy Research provide additional insight into the impact of any changes in automobile production schedules.

http://www.smra.com/

HOUSING—INVENTORIES

OF UNSOLD HOMES


The heart of the recent housing crisis https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/

Association of Realtors

http://www.realtor.org/

PRODUCTIVITYCYCLES


Root of what boosts a nation’s

standard of living.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

http://www.bls.gov/bls/productivity.htm

Labor productivity measures output per hour of labor.

MARKET AND

INDUSTRY GROUPS


Fed know the nation’s industries better than

those who work in them.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/table1.htm

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17

02 the top 40 top down indicators pdf

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