EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FROM CONCEPT ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FROM CONCEPT

TO REAL APPLICATIONSTO REAL APPLICATIONS

YASIN M. FAHJANDepartment of Earthquake and Structural Sciences

Gebze Institute of Technology, Gebze, Kocaeli, Turkeyfahjan@gyte.edu.tr

Universidade do MinhoDepartamento de Engenharia Civil

SEMINAR AND LUNCH ON EARTHQUAKEENGINEERING AND HISTORIC MASONRY

July 12, 2010

Attenuation of Seismic EnergyAttenuation of Seismic Energy

Local Site Effects:Local Site Effects:EventEvent

HAZARD ASSESSMENT

INVENTORY OF ELEMENTS AT RISK

VULNERABILITIES

RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY

LOSS RESULTS

Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City LevelLevel

SEISMIC HAZARDSEISMIC HAZARD

DeterministicConsider small number of scenarios: magnitude, distance, number of standard deviation of ground motionChoose the largest ground motion from cases considered

ProbabilisticConsider all possible scenarios: all magnitude, distance and number of

Attenuation Attenuation RelationshipRelationship

DETERMINISTIC APPROACHDETERMINISTIC APPROACH

Seismic source characterizationEstimation of seismicity (recurrence) parameters for each sourceSelection of ground motion attenuation modelsQuantification of the seismic hazard

F2

F1

Faults(line sources)

Area source

log(N)

M

SOURCEMODELS

RECURRENCE

pga,

Sa,

Ai

GROUND MOTIONATTENUATION

distancePr

obab

ility

of

exce

edan

ce

Acceleration

SEISMICHAZARDCURVES

SEISMIC HAZARD MAP

PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARDPROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD

Active faults of eastern Marmara region during the last century (Akyuz et al., 2000)

The recent high-resolution bathymetric map obtained from the survey of the Ifremer RV Le Suroitvessel that indicates a single, thoroughgoing strike-slip fault system (LePichon et al., 2001)

SOURCE CHARACTERIZATIONSOURCE CHARACTERIZATION

The long-term seismicity of the Marmara region (Seismicity between 32 AD –1983 taken from Ambraseys and Finkel, 1991)

Historical Earthquakes: the Earthquake Historical Earthquakes: the Earthquake CatalogCatalog

The sequence of earthquakes in the 18The sequence of earthquakes in the 18thth century (after Hubertcentury (after Hubert--Ferrari, 2000).Ferrari, 2000).

The seismic activity of the Marmara region with M>3 events from August 17, 1999 to present

Koeri, 2002

Koeri, 2002

Source Source ZonationZonation SchemeScheme

Koeri, 2002

RECURRENCE RELATIONSHIPSRECURRENCE RELATIONSHIPS

Koeri, 2002

The NEHRP-based Soil Classification

Koeri, 2002

Fa, the short period site-correction defined in the 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997)

Fv, the long period site correction defined in 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997)

SiteSite--correction Defined correction Defined iin n tthe 1997 NEHRP he 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997).Provisions (NEHRP 1997).

Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Site dependent seismic hazard assessment

Site dependent SA (T=0.2 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

Koeri, 2002

Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Site dependent seismic hazard assessment

Site dependent SA (T=1.0 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

Koeri, 2002

Standard Shape of the Standard Shape of the DesignDesign SpectrumSpectrum(NEHRP 1997) (NEHRP 1997)

T0 TS 1.0

SM1

SMS

Sa=S M1 / T

Period

Sa

0.4 S MS

RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS LEVELSRISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS LEVELS

National Level City Level(District & Sub-district)

Building Level

Risk Assessment At NATIONAL LevelRisk Assessment At NATIONAL Level

Intensity based estimation for the total damage for each city

Members Capacity

Assessment ProceduresAssessment Procedures At At Building Building LevelLevel

Strong Ground Motion Time Histroy

Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City LevelLevel

ELEMENTS AT RISKELEMENTS AT RISK

• Buildings • Lifeline Systems Built Environment

• Population• Socio-Economic Activities

Vulnerability Estimation MethodologyVulnerability Estimation Methodology

Observed VulnerabilityBased on Previous Earthquake Damage Data

Calculated VulnerabilityBased on computed performance of the building class

Observed VulnerabilityObserved Vulnerability

AdvantageBased on Observed Damage in previous EarthquakesSimple Concept

LimitationsIntensity Based that does not fit to Current Engineering parametersRegional Building Class Can not apply to New Classes of building

HAZUS, 2003

Classification of Structural DamagesClassification of Structural Damages

EMS-1998

Koeri, 2002

Calculated VulnerabilityCalculated Vulnerability

AdvantageBased on Engineering Ground Motion ParametersApplied to all building classesBased on Soil and Structural Response

LimitationsNot based on damage dataNon-structural failure can not be considered

HAZUS, 2003

General General AnalysisAnalysis ProcedureProcedure ForFor BuildingsBuildings LossLossEstimationEstimation

IST, 2004

Line plot for vulnerability curvesLine plot for vulnerability curves

Classification of Structural Damage(1) Slight damage(2) Moderate damage(3) Extensive damage(4) Complete damage

Classification of CasualtiesSeverity 1

Injuries requiring basic medical aid without requiring hospitalization

Severity 2Injuries requiring a greater degree of medical care and

hospitalizationSeverity 3

Injuries that pose an immediate life threatening condition if not treated adequately and expeditiously

Severity 4Instantaneously killed or mortally injured

Example for Classification of Building Types Example for Classification of Building Types According to Existing DatabaseAccording to Existing DatabaseConstruction Type ( I )

1. Skeleton type reinforced concrete building

2. Reinforced concrete shear wall buildings

3. Masonry and plain concrete buildings

Number of stories ( J )1. Low rise (1-3 stories)2. Mid rise (4-6 stories)3. High-rise (more than 6 stories)

Construction date ( K )1. Construction year: Pre-19852. Construction year: Post-1985

Spectral D

isplacement B

ased LossS

pectral Displacem

ent Based Loss

Estim

ation Analysis

Estim

ation Analysis

Input Building Inventory

Database for Geo-Cells

Input Spectral Acceleration for

Geo-Cells

Input Spectral Displacement

Based Vulnerabilities

Compute Building Damage Ratio for each Building Types

Input Capacity Curve for each Building Type

Compute Number of Damaged Buildings for each building

Class

Compute Direct Economic Loss for each Building Damage State

Compute Casualties for each Injury Groups

Input Economic Loss Data

Parameters

Input Demographic Database for

Geo-Cells

Input Casualties Loss data

Parameters

Casualties Losses for geo-Cells, Sub-

district, Districts

Economic Losses for geo-Cells, Sub-

district, Districts

Buildings Damages for geo-Cells, Sub-

district, Districts

Calibration with Intensity Based Vulnerabilities

TransportationTransportation SystemsSystems

Highway Systems:A highway transportation system consists of roadways, bridges and tunnels. ( geographicallocation, classification, and replacement costof the system components)

Highway RoadsMajor RoadsUrban Roads

Highway Bridges

Transportation system: Earthquake Transportation system: Earthquake Vulnerability and Damage Vulnerability and Damage

Road damages consist of the surface damages and collapse of the neighboring slopes or retaining walls.

Also collapsed underpasses or buildings can block the traffic even if the motorway is not damaged. According to ATC 25, the ratio of damage of local roads during an earthquake are given as %2 for MMI V, %4 for MMI VI, %11 for MMI VII, and %32 for MMI VIII

LifelineLifeline UtilityUtility SystemsSystems

Potable Water SystemA potable water system consists of pipelines, water treatment plants, wells, storage tanks and pumping stations. ( geographical location and classification of system components. repair cost for pipelines )Brittle PipeDuctile PipeWells, Water Storage Tanks, Water Treatment PlantsPumping Plants

Waste WaterA waste water system consists of pipelines, waste water treatment plants and lift stations. (geographical location and classification of system components, repair cost for pipelines).

Damage FunctionsDamage Functions for Water Pipelines for Water Pipelines

STRUCLOSS 1.4 SOFTWARESTRUCLOSS 1.4 SOFTWARE(Updated Version of (Updated Version of KoeriLossKoeriLoss 1.0)1.0)

• StrucLoss 1.4 is an updated version of Koerilosssoftware. The updated version is developed by Earthquake and Structural Department of GebzeInstitute of Technology, Turkey.

• Major UpdatesIntegrate the deterministic hazard into the software for widely used attenuation relationships computation is integrated. Provide Intensity range outputs of the results for each damage states of each building types. Calibration and testing the capacity curve and fragility curve parameters can be done more accurately and in fast way.

Adnalyis Method Options

Options Icons

Start Analyis

Input and Control Data Files

Integration of Integration of KOERILossKOERILoss and MapInfo and MapInfo GraphicsGraphics

ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RISK ISTANBUL EARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTASSESSMENT PROJECT

Mw=7.5 scenario earthquake for Istanbul and vicinity

Deterministic Seismic Hazard

GRID BASED BUILDING DISTRIBUTIONGRID BASED BUILDING DISTRIBUTION

Site dependent deterministic intensity distribution

Site-dependent deterministic SA(T=0.2 sec) values in units of g

Site-dependent deterministic SA(T=1.0 sec) values in units of g

Moderate Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings

Extensive Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings

Complete Damage Distribution of Mid-Rise Pre-1980 R/C Buildings

GREATER AMMAN MUNICIPALITY (GAM)GREATER AMMAN MUNICIPALITY (GAM)--JORDANJORDANEARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTEARTHQUAKE RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECT

Boundaries of Greater Amman Municipality districts Boundaries of Greater Amman Municipality districts

GeoGeo--Grid mesh for the study (cell size 500x500m). Grid mesh for the study (cell size 500x500m).

Geological map of GAMGeological map of GAM

A census block at city center of GAM with 500x500 A census block at city center of GAM with 500x500 GeoGeo--Grid layer Grid layer

Building Parameters for Skeleton Type, 1Building Parameters for Skeleton Type, 1--3 Floors (One Building 3 Floors (One Building of 2 Floors )of 2 Floors )

0.80.5Average Percenatge of Steel in Beam (%)0.80.6Average Percenatge of Steel in Columns (%)2515 cmSlab ThicknessRib slap

RC solid slabSlab Type

50x25 cm30 x 50 cmExternal Beam Dimesions70x25 cm30 x 50 cmInternal Beam Dimensions 30 cmnoShear wall Thickness25 x 50 cm30 x 30 cmExternal Column Dimesinon (Floor 2)25 x 50 cm30 x 30 cmExternal Column Dimesinon (Floor 1)

25 x 50 cm30 x 30 cmInternal Column Dimension (Floor 2)25 x 50 cm30 x 30 cmInternal Column Dimension (Floor 1)3.0 -2.75 m3.5-3.0 mFloor Height4.0 m4.5 mY Grids Spaces4.0 m4.5 mX Grids Spaces400 Mpa275 MpaReinforced Steel Type

300 kg/cm2200 kg/cm2Concrete Type

After > 1985

Before <1985

Structural Model RC skeleton, 1-3 Stories, pre 1985 Buildings Type (111)

Structural Model RC skeleton, 1-3 Stories, post 1985 Buildings Type (112)

Capacity Curve ComputationsCapacity Curve Computations

Capacity Curve ( +X Direction)

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25

Sd (m)

Sa (g

)

Capacity CurveLinearizedBilinear

Fragility Curve EstimationFragility Curve Estimation

. . Example of siteExample of site--dependent deterministic strong dependent deterministic strong ground motion distribution ground motion distribution

ThankThank youyou