00962402_bibliography on the application of probability methods in power system reliability...

7/25/2019 00962402_Bibliography on the Application of Probability Methods in Power System Reliability Evaluation 1996-199

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IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 16, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2001 595

Bibliography on the Application of ProbabilityMethods in Power System Reliability Evaluation

19961999Roy Billinton, Fellow, IEEE, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Senior Member, IEEE, and

Lina Bertling, Student Member, IEEE

AbstractThis paper presents a bibliography of papers onthe subject of power system reliability evaluation. Papers in suchareas as: probabilistic load flow, probabilistic production costing,probabilistic transient stability evaluation etc. have not beenincluded except where they specifically address power systemreliability evaluation.

It includes material which has been made available sincethe publication of six previous papers Bibliography on theApplication of Probability Methods in Power System ReliabilityEvaluation, IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and SystemsPAS-91, 1972, pp. 649660, Pas-97, 1978, pp. 22352242, PAS-103,1984, pp. 275282, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 3,no. 4, Nov. 1988, pp. 15551564, Vol. 9, No. 1, Feb. 1994, pp. 4149,and Vol. 14, no. 1, Feb. 1999, pp. 5157.

I. INTRODUCTION

CONSIDERABLE activity has occurred in the devel-opment and application of probabilistic techniques forpower system reliability evaluation since the six previous bib-

liographies were published in 1972, 1978, 1984, 1988, 1994,

and 1999. Only those papers which were published before the

end of 1999 have been included in this bibliography.

II. STATICGENERATINGCAPACITYRELIABILITYEVALUATION

1) An Alternative Approach to Rounding Off Generation

Models in Power System Reliability Evaluation, C.

Singh, N. V. Gubbala, Electric Power Systems Research,

Vol. 36, no. 1, Jan. 1996, pp. 3744.

2) Forced-Outage Rates of Generating Units Based on

Expert Valuation, S. F. Noor, J. R. McDonald, IEEE

Transactions on Reliability, Vol. 45, No. 1, March 1996,

pp. 138140.

3) A Sequential Simulation Technique for Adequacy

Evaluation of Generating Systems Including WindEnergy, R. Billinton, H. Chen, R. Ghajar, IEEE Trans-

actions on Energy Conversion, Vol. 11, no. 4, Dec. 1996,

pp. 728734.

Manuscript received July 17, 2000.R. Billinton and M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad are with the Power Systems Research

Group, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada.L. Bertling is with the Department of Electric Power Engineering, Kungl

Tekniska Hogskolan, Stockholm, Sweden.Publisher Item Identifier S 0885-8950(01)09423-8.

4) Power System Health Analysis, R. Billinton, M.

Fotuhi-Firuzabad, S. Aboreshaid, Reliability Engi-

neering & System Safety, Vol. 55, no. 1, Jan. 1997,

pp. 18.

5) Application of Frequency and Duration Approach

in Generation Planning, A. S. Malik, B. J. Cory,

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 3,Aug. 1997, pp. 10761084.

6) Loss of Load Costs in Generating Capacity Reliability

Evaluation, A. M. Leite da Silva, A. G. Perez, J. W.

Marangon Lima, J. C. O. Mello, Electric Power Systems

Research, Vol. 41, no. 2, 1997, pp. 109116.

7) Economical Generation Reserve in Isolated Power Sys-

tems, M. A. H. El-Sayed, Electric Machines and Power

Systems, Vol. 26, no. 9, 1998, pp. 963976.

8) Generating Capacity Planning Criteria Determination

for Developing Countries: Case Study of Nepal, R.

Billinton, M. Pandey, IEE Proceedings: Generation,

Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 5, 1999,

pp. 491495.9) Determination of the Optimum Site-Matching Wind

Turbine Using Risk-Based Capacity Benefit Factors,

R. Billinton, H. Chen, IEE Proceedings: Generation,


pp. 96100.

10) Individual Generating Station Reliability Assess-

ment, R. Billinton, H. Chen, J. Zhou, IEEE Trans-

actions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 4, Feb. 1999,

pp. 12381244.

11) Application of Monte Carlo Simulation to Generating

System Well-being Analysis, R. Billinton, R. Karki,

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 3,

1999, pp. 11721177.12) New Methodology for the Provision of Reserve in

an Isolated Power System, J. W. OSullivan, M.

J. OMalley, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,

Vol. 14, no. 2, 1999, pp. 519524.

13) Capacity Reserve Assessment Using System

Well-being Analysis, R. Billinton, R. Karki, IEEE

Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 2, 1999,

pp. 433438.

14) Capacity Planning in Small Isolated Power Systems

Using Probabilistic Methods, R. Billinton, R. Karki,

08858950/01$10.00 2001 IEEE


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596 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 16, NO. 4, NOVEMBER 2001

IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and Distri-

bution, Vol. 146, no. 1, 1999, pp. 6164.

III. MULTI-AREARELIABILITYEVALUATION

1) A New Approach to Evaluate Two Area Interconnected

Power Generating Systems Reliability, A. K. Azad, R. B.

Misra, Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 36, no. 10, 1996,pp. 15891594.

2) Capacity Assistance Distributions for Arbitrarily

Configured Multi-Area Networks, J. Mitra, C. Singh,


Nov. 1997, pp. 15301535.

3) Probabilistic Assessment of Interconnection Assistance

Between Power Systems, G. Hamoud, IEEE Trans-

actions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, no. 2, May 1998,

pp. 535540.

4) Methods and Techniques for Reliability Assessment of

Interconnected Systems, O. Bertoldi, Electra, CIGRE,

Task Force 38.03.11, no. 179, Aug. 1998, pp. 129134.

5) Bayesian Network Model for Reliability Assessment ofPower Systems, D. C. Yu, T. C. Nguyen, P. Haddawy,


1999, pp. 426432.

IV. COMPOSITEGENERATION-TRANSMISSIONRELIABILITY

EVALUATION

1) Reliability Assessment of Autonomous Power Systems

Incorporating HVDC Interconnection Links, E. N. Dia-

lynas, N. C. Koskolos, D. Agoris, IEEE Transactions on

Power Delivery, Vol. 11, no. 1, Jan. 1996, pp. 519525.

2) Generation/Transmission Power System Reliability

Evaluation by Monte-Carlo Simulation Assuming a

Fuzzy Load Description, J. Tome Saraiva, V. Miranda,

L. M. V. G. Pinto, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,

Vol. 11, no. 2, May 1996, pp. 690695.

3) Composite Reliability Evaluation of Interconnected

Power Systems, M. A. H. El-Sayed, H. J. Hinz, Electric

Machines and Power Systems, Vol. 24, no. 6, 1996,

pp. 609622.

4) Delivery Point Reliability Measurement, A. A.

Chowdhury, D. O. Koval, IEEE Transactions on In-

dustry Applications, Vol. 32, no. 6, Nov.Dec. 1996,

pp. 14401448.5) Composite System Adequacy Assessment Using

Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation With Variance Re-

duction Techniques, R. Billinton, A. Jonnavithula, IEE

Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution,

Vol. 144, no. 1, Jan. 1997, pp. 16.

6) Topological Analysis in Bulk Power System Reliability

Evaluation, S. Jonnavithula, R. Billinton, IEEE Trans-

actions on Power Systems Vol. 12, no. 1, Feb. 1997,

pp. 456463.

7) Integration of Non-Utility Generating Facilities Into

the Reliability Assessment of Composite Generation and

Transmission Power Systems, E. N. Dialynas, D. J.

Papakammenos, N. C. Koskolos, IEEE Transactions on

Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 1, Feb. 1997, pp. 464470.

8) Composite System Reliability Evaluation Using

State Space Pruning, C. Singh, J. Mitra, IEEE

Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 1,

Feb. 1997, pp. 471479.

9) Effects of Voltage Collapse Problems in the Reliability

Evaluation of Composite Systems, A. C. G. Melo,J. C. O. Mello, S. Granville, IEEE Transactions on


10) Effects of Preventive Maintenance on Circuit Breakers

and Protection Systems Upon Substation Reliability, J.

J. Meeuwsen, W. L. Kling, Electric Power Systems Re-

search, Vol. 40, no. 3, 1997, pp. 181188.

11) Application of Chronological Load Modeling in Com-

posite Reliability Worth Evaluation, J. C. O. Mello,

M. V. F. Pereira, A. M. Leite da Silva, A. C. G. Melo,

Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 40, no. 3, 1997,

pp. 167174.

12) Application of Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation

to Evaluation of Distributions of Composite SystemIndices, R. Billinton, A. Jonnavithula, IEE Proceedings

Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 144,

no. 2, March 1997, pp. 8790.

13) Efficient Loss-Of-Load Cost Evaluation by Combined

Pseudo-Sequential and State Transition Simulation, J.

C. O. Mello, A. M. Leite da Silva, M. V. F. Pereira, IEE

Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distribution,

Vol. 144, no. 2, March 1997, pp. 147154.

14) Diagnosing the Health of Bulk Generation and HVDC

Transmission Systems, R. Billinton, S. Aboreshaid,

M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, IEEE Transactions on Power

Systems, Vol. 12, no. 4, Nov. 1997, pp. 17401745.

15) Features That Influence Composite Power System

Reliability Worth Assessment, A. Jonnavithula, R.

Billinton, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems Vol. 12,

no. 4, Nov. 1997, pp. 15361541.

16) Energy and Load Curtailment Based Indices

in Probabilistic Transient Stability Studies, R.

Billinton, S. Aboreshaid, Journal of King Saud

University-Engineering Sciences, Vol. 9, no. 2, 1997.

17) Probing the New IEEE Reliability Test System

(RTS-96): HL-II Assessment, J. M. S. Pinheiro, C. R.

R. Dornellas, M. Th. Schilling, A. C. G. Melo, J. C.

Mello, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13,

No. 1, Feb. 1998, pp. 171176.18) Algorithm for Failure Frequency and Duration Assess-

ment of Composite Power Systems, R. Billinton, W.

Zhang, IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and

Distribution, Vol. 145, no. 2, March 1998, pp. 117122.

19) Application of an Adequacy Equivalent Method in

Bulk Power System Reliability Evaluation, W. Zhang,

R. Billinton, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,

Vol. 13, no. 2, May 1998, pp. 661666.

20) Voltage Stability Considerations in Composite Power

System Reliability Evaluation, R. Billinton, S. Abore-

shaid, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13,

no. 2, May 1998, pp. 655660.


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BILLINTONet al.: BIBLIOGRAPHY ON THE APPLICATION OF PROBABILITY METHODS IN POWER SYSTEM RELIABILITY EVALUATION 19961999 597

21) Bulk Load Points Reliability Evaluation Using a Secu-

rity Based Model, M. E. Khan, IEEE Transactions on

Power Systems, Vol. 13, No. 2, May 1998, pp. 456461.

22) Bus-Based Reliability Indices and Associated Costs in

the Bulk Power System, S. M. Rios, V. P. Vidal, D. L.

Kiguel, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13,

no. 3, Aug. 1998, pp. 719724.

23) Reliability Analysis of Electric Utility SCADA Sys-tems, A. G. Bruce, IEEE Transactions on Power Sys-

tems, Vol. 13, no. 3, Aug. 1998, pp. 844849.

24) Assessment of Risk-Based Capacity Benefit Factors

Associated With Wind Energy Conversion Systems, R.

Billinton, H. Chen, IEEE Transactions on Power Sys-

tems, Vol. 13, no. 3, Aug. 1998, pp. 11911196.

25) Incorporation of Voltage Stability Operating Limits in

Composite System Adequacy Assessment: BC Hydros

Experience", W. Li, Y. Mansour, E. Vaahedi, D. N.

Pettet, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13,

no. 4, Nov. 1998, pp. 12791284.

26) Value-Based Reliability Enhancement Scheme for

Bulk Transmission System Planning, J. A. Momoh, Y.Wang, M. Elfayoumy, B. Mittelstadt, S. K. Agarwal, R.

Adapa, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 13,

No. 4, Nov. 1998, pp. 15411547.

27) A Reliability Approach to Transmission Expansion

Planning Using Fuzzy Fault-Tree Model, R. S. Chanda,

P. K. Bhattacharjee, Electric Power Systems Research,

Vol. 45, no. 2, 1998, pp. 101108.

28) State Extension in Adequacy Evaluation of Composite

Power SystemsConcept and Algorithm, R. Billinton,

W. Zhang, Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 47,

no. 3, 1998, pp. 189195.

29) Reliability Equivalents for AC Adequacy Evaluation of

Large Power Systems, H. M. Maghraby, A. S. Farag,

and A. N. Cheema, Electric Machines and Power Sys-

tems, Vol. 26, no. 5, 1998, pp. 507528.

30) Application of DC Equivalents to the Reliability

Evaluation of Composite Power Systems, H. A. M.

Maghraby, R. N. Allan, IEEE Transactions on Power

Systems, Vol. 14, no. 1, Feb. 1999, pp. 355361.

31) Deregulated Power System Planning Using a Relia-

bility Network Equivalent Technique, R. Billinton, P.

Wang, IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and

Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 1, 1999, pp. 2530.

32) Probabilistic Approach to Determining Generation

Equivalence to a Transmission Facility, A. A. Chowd-hury, D. O. Koval, IEEE Transactions on Industry

Applications, Vol. 35, no. 6, 1999, pp. 12601264.33) Adequacy Equivalent Development of Composite Gen-

eration and Transmission Systems Using a DC Load

Flow, R. Billinton, W. Zhang, Reliability Engineering

and System Safety, Vol. 65, no. 3, 1999, pp. 295305.

34) Well-being Framework for Composite Generation and

Transmission System Reliability Evaluation, L. Goel,

C. Feng, IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission

and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 5, 1999, pp. 528534.

35) Reliability and Production Assessment of Wind En-

ergy Production Connected to the Electric Network

Supply, J. R. Ubeda, M. A. R. Rodriguez Garcia, IEE

Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and Distribu-

tion, Vol. 146, no. 2, 1999, pp. 169175.

36) Framework of Voltage Stability Assessment in Power

System Reliability Analysis, J. A. Momoh, Y. V.

Makarov, W. Mittelstadt, IEEE Transactions on Power

Systems, Vol. 14, no. 2, 1999, pp. 484491.

37) Composite System Reliability Evaluation Based onMonte-Carlo Simulation Combined With Outages

Screening, Y. Guo, Y. Xi, K. Xiao, H. Yang, IEEE

Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 2, 1999,

pp. 785790.

38) Pruning and Simulation for Determination of Fre-

quency and Duration Indices of Composite Power

Systems, J. Mitra, C. Singh, IEEE Transactions on

Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1999, pp. 899905.

39) Comparison of Alternative Methods for Evaluating

Loss of Load Costs in Generation and Transmission

Systems, L. A. F. Manso, A.M.L. da Silva, J. C. O.

Mello, Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 50, no. 2,

1999, pp. 107114.40) Reliability Planning for Composite Electric Power Sys-

tems, C. Su, G. Lii, Electric Power Systems Research,

Vol. 51, no. 1, 1999, pp. 2331.

V. OPERATINGRESERVERELIABILITYEVALUATION

1) Response Health Constraints in Economic Load Dis-

patch Considering Standby Units, Interruptible Loads

and Postponable Outages, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, R.

Billinton, S. Aboreshaid, IEE Proceedings Genera-

tion, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 143, no. 6,

Nov. 1996, pp. 599607.

2) Unit Commitment Health Analysis for Interconnected

Systems, R. Billinton, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, S. Abore-

shaid, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12,

no. 3, Aug. 1997, pp. 11941201.

3) Risk-Based Security Index for Determining Operating

Limits in Stability-Limited Electric Power Systems,

J. D. McCalley, A. A. Fouad, B. L. Agrawal, R. G.

Farmer, V. Vittal, A. A. Irizarry-Rivera, IEEE Trans-

actions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 3, Aug. 1997,

pp. 12101219.

4) An Energy Based Approach to Evaluate OptimumInterruptible Load Carrying Capability in Isolated

and Interconnected Systems Including Well-being

Constraints, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, R. Billinton,


Nov. 1997, pp. 16761681.

5) Reliability Analysis for Hydrothermal Generating Sys-

tems Including the Effect of Maintenance Scheduling,

J. Juan, I. Ortega, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,

Vol. 12, no. 4, Nov. 1997, pp. 15611568.

6) Reliability Evaluation in Operational Planning of

Power Systems, A. R. Abdelaziz, Electric Machines

and Power Systems, Vol. 25, no. 4, 1997, pp. 419428.


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7) Application of Perturbation Analysis to Sensitivity

Computations of Generating Units and System Relia-

bility, H. Salehfar, S. Trihadi, IEEE Transactions on


8) Probabilistic Evaluation of the Effect of Maintenance

on ReliabilityAn Application, J. Endrenyi, G. J. An-

ders, A. M. Leite da Silva, IEEE Transactions on Power

Systems, Vol. 13, no. 2, May 1998, pp. 576582.9) Risk Due to Load Forecast Uncertainty in Short Term

Power SystemPlanning, A. P. Douglas, A. M. Breipohl,

F. N. Lee, R. Adapa, IEEE Transactions on Power Sys-

tems, Vol. 13, no. 4, Nov. 1998, pp. 14931499.

10) Interruptible Load Considerations in Well-being Anal-

ysis of Interconnected Systems, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad,

Quality and Reliability Engineering International,

Vol. 14, no. 3, 1998, pp. 137144.

11) Adequacy Assessment Using a Modified Four-State

Model, N. Chowdhury, H. Khonsari, Quality and

Reliability Engineering International, Vol. 14, no. 3,

1998, pp. 145151.

12) Power Systems Operations Reliability Assessmentin Brazil, M. Th. Schilling, M. B. Do Coutto Filho,

Quality and Reliability Engineering International,

Vol. 14, no. 3, 1998, pp. 153158.

13) Value-Based Reliability for Short Term Operational

Planning, J. A. Momoh, M. Elfayoumy, W. Mittelstadt,


Feb. 1999, pp. 15331542.

14) Application of Probabilistic Risk-Shaving Technique

in Generation Planning, A. S. Malik, B. J. Cory, P. D.

C. Wijayatunga, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,

Vol. 14, no. 4, Feb. 1999, pp. 15431548.

15) Leveling Reliability in Systems With Large Hydro Re-

sources, C. Gonzalez, J. Juan, IEEE Transactions on


16) Unit Commitment Health Analysis in Composite

Generation and Transmission Systems Considering

Stand-by Units, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, R. Billinton,


bution, Vol. 146, no. 2, March 1999, pp. 164168.

17) Reliability Evaluation for Hydrothermal Generating

Systems: Application to the Spanish Case, C. Gon-

zalez, J. Juan, Reliability Engineering & System Safety,

Vol. 64, no. 1, April 1999, pp. 8997.

18) Extending Unit Commitment Health Analysis to

Include Transmission Considerations, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, R. Billinton, M. E. Khan, Electric Power

Systems Research, Vol. 50, no. 1, 1999, pp. 3542.

VI. TRANSMISSION ANDDISTRIBUTIONSYSTEMRELIABILITY

EVALUATION

1) Power Distribution System Planning With Reliability

Modeling and Optimization, Y. Tang, IEEE Trans-

actions on Power Systems, Vol. 11, no. 1, Feb. 1996,

pp. 181189.

2) Optimal Switching Device Placement in Radial Dis-

tribution Systems R. Billinton, S. Jonnavithula, IEEE

Transactions Power Delivery, Vol. 11, no. 3, July 1996,

pp. 16461651.

3) Distribution System Reliability Assessment Using Hi-

erarchical Markov Modeling, R. E. Brown, S. Gupta,

R. D. Christie, S. S. Venkata, R. Fletcher, IEEE Trans-

actions on Power Delivery, Vol. 11, no. 4, Oct. 1996,pp. 19291934.

4) Minimum Cost Analysis of Feeder Routing in Distri-

bution System Planning, S. Jonnavithula, R. Billinton,

IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 11, no. 4,

Oct. 1996, pp. 19351940.

5) Model for the Seismic Reliability Assessment of Elec-

tric Power Transmission Systems, A. H.-S. Ang, J. A.

Pires, R. Villaverde, Reliability Engineering & System

Safety, Vol. 51, no. 1, 1996, pp. 722.

6) Reliability Indices of a Radial Distribution System

With Sectionalizing as a Function of Network Structure

Parameters, G. Levitin, S. Mazal-Tov, D. Elmakis,

Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 36, no. 2, 1996,pp. 7380.

7) Distribution System Reliability Evaluation Using

the Monte Carlo Simulation Method, X. Liang, L.

Goel, Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 40, no. 2,

Feb. 1997, pp. 7583.

8) Reliability of Telecommunications for Bulk Power

System Teleprotection, M. Khademi, IEEE Transac-

tions on Power Delivery, Vol. 12, no. 2, April 1997,

pp. 601606.

9) Transmission System Protection: A Reliability Study,

B. Hussain, C. E. Beck, T. E. Wiedman, C. R. Sufana,


April 1997, pp. 675680.

10) Automated Primary Distribution System Design: Reli-

ability and Cost Optimization, R. E. Brown, S. Gupta,


actions on Power Delivery, Vol. 12, no. 2, April 1997,

pp. 10171022.

11) Reliability Centered Maintenance for Transmission

Systems, M. E. Beehler, IEEE Transactions on PowerDelivery, Vol. 12, no. 2, April 1997, pp. 10231028.

12) Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Systems With

Non-Exponential Down Times, S. Asgarpoor, M. J.

Mathine, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12,

no. 2, May 1997, pp. 579584.13) Development of Reliability Targets for Planning Trans-

mission Facilities Using Probabilistic TechniquesA

Utility Approach, S. K. Agarwal, W. V. Torre, IEEE

Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, No. 2,

May 1997, pp. 704709.

14) Quantitative Reliability Analysis of Distribution Sys-

tems: Repair Times, D. M Rigler, W. R. Hodgkins, R.

N. Allan, Power Engineering Journal, Vol. 11, no. 4,

Aug. 1997, pp. 165168.

15) New Planning Model for Assessing the Effects of

Transmission Capacity Constraints on the Reliability

of Generation Supply for Large Nonequivalenced


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Electric Networks, E. G. Preston, W. M. Grady, M.

L. Baughman, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,

Vol. 12, no. 3, Aug. 1997, pp. 13671373.

16) Substation Reliability Evaluation Including Switching

Actions With Redundant Components, J. J. Meeuwsen,

W. L. Kling, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,

Vol. 12, no. 4, Oct. 1997, pp. 14721479.

17) Reliability and Life Cycle Cost Estimates of 400 KVSubstation Layouts, D. Karlsson, H. E. Olovsson, L.

Wallin, C. E. Solver, IEEE Transactions Power Delivery,

Vol. 12, no. 4, Oct. 1997, pp. 14861492.

18) Distribution System Reliability Assessment: Momen-

tary Interruptions and Storms, R. E. Brown, S. Gupta,


actions on Power Delivery, Vol. 12, no. 4, Oct. 1997,

pp. 15691575.

19) Generalized State System Markov Model for

Station-Oriented Reliability Evaluation, R. Billinton,

H. Chen, J. Zhou, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,

Vol. 12, no. 4, Nov. 1997, pp. 15111517.

20) Modeling the Reliability of Distribution Line Struc-tures, R. H. Stillman, M. S. Mackisack, M. Griffin,

Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 41, no. 2, 1997,

pp. 8590.

21) Reliability Network Equivalent Approach to Distri-

bution System Reliability Evaluation, R. Billinton, P.

Wang, IEE Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and

Distribution, Vol. 145, no. 2, March 1998, pp. 149153.

22) Reliability Standards Versus Development of Elec-

tric Power Industry, D. Holmber, T. Ostrup, M.

Amorouayeche, A. Invernizzi, Electra, CIGRE, Advi-

sory Group 28.03, no. 177, April 1998, pp. 95102.

23) Evaluating Strategies for Reliable Distribution, A.

T. Brint, W. R. Hodgkins, D. M. Rigler, S. A. Smith,

IEEE Computer Applications in Power, Vol. 11, no. 3,

July 1998, pp. 4347.

24) Demand-Side Optimal Selection of Switching Devices

in Radial Distribution System Planning, P. Wang,

R. Billinton, IEE Proceedings: Generation, Trans-

mission and Distribution, Vol. 145, no. 4, July 1998,

pp. 409414.

25) Modeling the Influence of Preventive Maintenance on

Protection System Reliability Performance, S. T. J. A.

Vermeulen, H. Rijanto, F. A. Van der Duyn Schouten,


Oct. 1998, pp. 10271032.26) Using Monte Carlo Simulation for Overall Distribution

System Reliability Worth Assessment, Y. Ou, L. Goel,


bution, Vol. 146, no. 5, 1999, pp. 535540.

27) Survey of Distribution Reliability Measurement Prac-

tices in the U.S., C. A. Warren, R. Ammon, G. Welch,


Jan. 1999, pp. 250257.

28) Reliability Comparison of Substation Designs, D.

Atanackovic, D. T. McGillis, F. D. Galiana, IEEE

Transactions Power Delivery, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1999,

pp. 903910.

29) Determining Number and Timing of Substation Spare

Transformers Using a Probabilistic Cost Analysis

Approach, W. Li, E. Vaahedi, Y. Mansour, IEEE

Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1999,

pp. 934939.

30) Modeling the Impact of Substations on Distribution

Reliability, R. E. Brown, T. M. Taylor, IEEE Trans-

actions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, No. 1, Feb. 1999,pp. 349354.

31) Distribution Feeder Reliability Studies, W. H. Ker-

sting, W. H. Phillips, R. C. Doyle, IEEE Transactions

on Industry Applications, Vol. 35, no. 2, MarchApril

1999, pp. 319323.

32) A Basic Framework for Sub-Transmission System

Health Analysis, R. Gupta, L. Goel, Electric Power

Systems Research, Vol. 49, no. 3, April 1999,

pp. 195200.

33) Probabilistic Steady-State Power System Security In-

dices, J. Naham, I. Skokljev, International Journal of

Electrical Power and Energy System, Vol. 21, no. 7,

Oct. 1999, pp. 515522.34) Reliability Evaluation of Substation Control Sys-

tems, L. R. C. Ferreira, P. A. Crossley, J. Goody,

R. N. Allan, IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmis-

sion and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 6, Nov. 1999,

pp. 626632.

35) Models for Probabilistic Power Transmission System

Reliability Calculation, B. Bak-Jensen, J. Bech,

C. G. Bjerregaard, P. R. Jensen, IEEE Transactions on

Power Systems, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1999, pp. 11661171.

36) Comprehensive Reliability Assessment of Substation

Originated Outages Using the Monte Carlo Simulation

Technique, L. Goel, S. Ren, Electric Power Systems


37) Predictive Analysis Ranks Reliability Improvements,

C. A. McCarthy, H. Liu, IEEE Computer Applications

in Power, Vol. 12, No. 4, 1999, pp. 3540.

38) Deregulated Power System Planning Using a

Reliability Network Equivalent Technique, R.

Billinton, P. Wang, IEE Proceedings Generation,


pp. 2530.

39) Teaching Distribution System Reliability Evaluation

Using Monte Carlo Simulation, R. Billinton, P. Wang,


1999, pp. 397403.40) Quantitative Reliability Analysis of Distribution Sys-

tems: Automation, D. M. Rigler, W. R. Hodgkins, R. N.

Allan, Power Engineering Journal, Vol. 13, no. 4, 1999,

pp. 201204.

41) Reliability Impacts of Subtransmission and Radial

Configurations on the Distribution System, R. Gupta,

L. Goel, Electric Machines and Power Systems, Vol. 27,

no. 7, 1999, pp. 721736.

42) A Comparison of Distribution System Reliability In-

dices for Different Operating Configurations, L. Goel,

Electric Machines and Power Systems, Vol. 27, no. 9,

1999, pp. 10291039.


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VII. EQUIPMENT OUTAGEDATA

1) Transmission Equipment Reliability Data From

Canadian Electrical Association, D. O. Koval, IEEE

Transactions on Industry Applications, Vol. 32, no. 6,

Nov.Dec. 1996, pp. 14311439.

2) Generalized Outage Table Approach to Reliability Study

of Power Stations Bus Schemes, Wang, Xi-Fan, Wang,

Xiu-Li, IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 12,

no. 4, Oct. 1997, pp. 14801485.

3) Distribution System Reliability: Default Data and Model

Validation, R. E. Brown, J. R. Ochoa, IEEE Transac-

tions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, No. 2, May 1998,

pp. 704709.

VIII. RELIABILITYCOST/WORTHANALYSIS

1) Effective Techniques for Reliability Worth Assessment

in Composite Power System Networks Using Monte

Carlo Simulation, A. Sankarakrishnan, R. Billinton,


Aug. 1996, pp. 12551261.

2) Factors Affecting Customer Outage Costs due to Elec-

tric Service Interruptions, K. K. Kariuki, R. N. Allan,

IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmission and Distri-

bution, Vol. 143, no. 6, Nov. 1996, pp. 521528.3) Impacts of Pertinent Factors on Reliability Worth

Indices in an Electric Power System, L. Goel, R.

Billinton, Electric Power Systems Research, Vol. 41,

no. 2, May 1997, pp. 151158.

4) Balancing Cost and Reliability: A Quantitative Study

at Atlantic Electric, V. Udo, S. K. Agarwal, A. Vojdani,

M. I. Harlacher, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,

Vol. 12, no. 3, Aug. 1997, pp. 11031111.5) Model for Security of Service Costing in Electric

Transmission Systems, O. Moya, IEE Proceedings

Generation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 144,

no. 6, Nov. 1997, pp. 521524.

6) Power Interruption Costs to Industrial and Commercial

Consumers of Electricity, M. J. Sullivan, T. Vardell, M.

Johnson, IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications,

Vol. 33, no. 6, Nov.Dec. 1997, pp. 14481457.

7) CostBenefit Analysis of Generation Additions in

System Planning, S. Jonnavithula, R. Billinton, IEE

Proceedings: Generation, Transmission and Distribu-

tion, Vol. 145, no. 3, May 1998, pp. 288292.

8) Distribution System Reliability Cost/Worth Anal-ysis Using Analytical and Sequential Simulation

Techniques, R. Billinton, P. Wang, IEEE Transac-

tions on Power Systems, Vol. 13, no. 4, Nov. 1998,

pp. 12451250.

9) Evaluation of the Marginal Outage Costs in Generating

Systems Using Quantitative Power System Reliability

Techniques, R. F. Ghajar, Quality and Reliability Engi-

neering International, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1998, pp. 129136.

10) Reliability and Interruption Cost Prediction Using

Time-Dependent Failure Rates and Interruption Costs,

G. H. Kjlle, A. T. Holen, Quality and Reliability Engi-

neering International, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1998, pp. 159165.

11) Customer Interruption Cost Assessment: An Inter-

national Perspective, R. Billinton, M. Pandey, IEEE

Power Engineering Review, Jan. 1999, pp. 6566.

12) Reliability Worth Assessment in a Developing

CountryResidential Survey Results, R. Billinton, M.

Pandey, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14,

no. 4, Feb. 1999, pp. 12261231.

13) Reliability Worth Assessment in a DevelopingCountryCommercial and Industrial Survey Results,

M. Pandey, R. Billinton, IEEE Transactions on Power

Systems, Vol. 14, no. 4, Feb. 1999, pp. 12321238.

14) Electric Service Reliability Worth Evaluation for Gov-

ernment, Institutions and Office Buildings, J. Gates, R.

Billinton, G. Wacker, IEEE Transactions on Power Sys-

tems, Vol. 14, no. 1, Feb. 1999, pp. 4350.

15) Value-Based Power System Reliability Planning, A.

A. Chowdhury, D. O. Koval, IEEE Transactions on In-

dustry Applications, Vol. 35, no. 2, MarchApril 1999,

pp. 305311.

16) Reliability Worth of Distribution System Network

Reinforcement Considering Dispersed Customer CostData, R. Billinton, P. Wang, IEE Proceedings: Gener-

ation, Transmission and Distribution, Vol. 146, no. 3,

1999, pp. 318324.

17) Reliability Worth Assessment in Radial Distribu-

tion Systems Using the Monte Carlo Simulation

Technique, L. Goel, Y. Ou, Electric Power Systems


18) Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Customer Service Re-

liability Assessment, L. Goel, X. Liang, Y. Ou, Elec-

tric Power Systems Research, Vol. 49, no. 3, April 1999,

pp. 185194.

19) Time Sequential Distribution System Reliability Worth

Analysis Considering Time Varying Load and Cost

Models, P. Wang, R. Billinton, IEEE Transactions on

Power Delivery, Vol. 14, no. 3, 1999, pp. 10461051.

20) Reliability Worth Assessments of Electrical Distribu-

tion Networks, R. N. Allan, K. K. Kariuki, Quality

and Reliability Engineering International, Vol. 15, no. 2,

1999, pp. 7985.

IX. GENERALCONSIDERATIONS

1) Calculating the Frequency of Power System Failure

Including Common-Cause Failure, A. R. Abdelaziz,Electric Machines and Power Systems, Vol. 24, no. 5,

1996, pp. 533540.

2) Time-Series Models for Reliability Evaluation of

Power Systems Including Wind Energy, R. Billinton,

H. Chen, R. Ghajar, Microelectronics and Reliability,

Vol. 36, no. 9, Sept. 1996, pp. 12531261.

3) A Test System for Teaching Overall Power System

Reliability Assessment, R. Billinton, S. Jonnavithula,


Nov. 1996, pp. 16701676.

4) Power System Structure Optimization Subject to

Reliability Constraints, A. Lisnianski, G. Levitin,


7/8


H. Ben-Haim, D. Elmakis, Electric Power Systems

Research, Vol. 39, no. 2, Nov. 1996, pp. 145152.

5) Impact of Supply Restoration Procedures on the Reli-

ability Performance of Power Distribution Systems, E.

N. Dialynas, D. G. Michos, Electric Power Systems Re-

search, Vol. 39, no. 2, 1996, pp. 111121.

6) Choosing From Redundant Designs of Power Systems

Using System Outage Rate and Cost, C. R. Vallarino,K. J. Elsey, Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 36, no. 5,

1996, pp. 12691274.

7) Power System Reliability Evaluation Using Fuzzy

Logic and Neural Networks, S. A. Khaparde, K.

Bhattacharyya, International Journal of Engineering

Intelligent Systems for Electrical Engineering and

Communications, Vol. 4, no. 4, Dec. 1996, pp. 197206.

8) Power System Reliability Using Network Decomposi-

tion, Electric Machines and Power Systems, A. R. Ab-

delaziz, Vol. 25, no. 4, 1997, pp. 411418.

9) Improved Reliability Model for Redundant Protective

SystemsMarkov Models, P. M. Anderson, G. M.

Chintaluri, S. M. Magbuhat, R. F. Ghajar, IEEE Trans-actions on Power Systems, Vol. 12, no. 2, May 1997,

pp. 573578.

10) Well-being Analysis for HVDC Transmis-

sion Systems, R. Billinton, S. Aboreshaid, M.

Fotuhi-Firuzabad, IEEE Transactions on Power Sys-

tems, Vol. 12, no. 2, May 1997, pp. 913918.

11) Reliability Issues in Todays Electric Power Utility En-

vironment, R. Billinton, L. Salvaderi, L., J. D. Mc-

Calley, H. Chao, TH. Seitz, R. N. Allan, J. Odom, C.

Fallon, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 12,

No. 4, Nov. 1997, pp. 17081714.

12) Application of the State Transition Sampling Tech-

nique to System Reliability Evaluation, R. Billinton,

A. Jonnavithula, Quality and Reliability Engineering

International, Vol. 13, no. 5, 1997, pp. 311315.

13) Diagnosing the Health of Engineering Systems, R.

Billinton, S. Aboreshaid, M. Fotuhi-Firuzabad, Quality

and Reliability Engineering International, Vol. 13, no. 5,

1997, pp. 317323.

14) Weaknesses of the Conventional Three-State Model in

Station-Oriented Reliability Evaluation, R. Billinton,

H. Chen, Microelectronics Reliability, Vol. 37, no. 12,

1997, pp. 17991804.

15) Power System Security Assessment: A Position

Paper, Task Force 38.03.12, CIGRE, Electra, no. 175,Dec. 1997, pp. 4978.

16) Power System Reliability Assessment Suitable for aDeregulated System via the Method of Cumulants, L.

A. Sanabria, T. S. Dillon, International Journal of Elec-

trical Power and Energy System Vol. 20, no. 3, March.

1998, pp. 203211.

17) Sequential Probabilistic Methods for Power System

Operation and Planning, J. V. Hecke et al., Electra,

CIGRE, Task Force 13 of Advisory Group 38.03,

no. 179, Aug. 1998, pp. 6999.

18) Comparative Study of Continuous Distribution Models

for Power System Reliability Evaluation, J. O. Kim, C.

Singh, IEE Proceedings Generation, Transmission and

Distribution, Vol. 145, no. 5, Sept. 1998, pp. 566572.

19) A Proposal of a Supporting Expert System for Outage

Planning of Electric Power Facilities Retaining High

Power Supply Reliability: Part IOutline of a Sup-

porting System and Outage Work Allocation Based on

Indices, K. Kawahara, H. Sasaki, J. Kubokawa, H.

Asahara, K. Sugiyama, IEEE Transactions on PowerSystems, Vol. 13, no. 4, Nov. 1998, pp. 14531458.

20) A Proposal of a Supporting Expert System for

Outage Planning of Electric Power Facilities Retaining

High Power Supply Reliability: Part IIKnowledge

Processing and Simulation Results, K. Kawahara,

H. Sasaki, J. Kubokawa, H. Asahara, K. Sugiyama,


Nov. 1998, pp. 14591465.

21) Wind Speed Simulation in Wind Farms for

Steady-State Security Assessment of Electrical Power

Systems, A. E. Feijoo, J. Cidras, J. L. G. Dornelas,

IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion, Vol. 14,

no. 4, 1999, pp. 15821587.22) The IEEE Reliability Test System1996, C. Grigg,

P. Wang, P. Albrecht, R. N. Allan, M. Bhavaraju, R.

Billinton,et al., IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,

Vol. 14, no. 3, 1999, pp. 10101018.

23) Power System Reliability Enhancement Using a

Thyristor Controlled Series Capacitor, R. Billinton, M.

Fotuhi-Firuzabad, S. O. Faried, IEEE Transactions on


24) Evaluation of Power Systems Reliability by an

Artificial Neural Network, N. Amjady, M. Ehsan,


Feb. 1999, pp. 287292.

25) A Fuzzy-Based Power System Reliability Evaluation,

A. R. Abdelaziz, Electric Machines and Power Systems,

Vol. 27, no. 3, 1999, pp. 271278.

26) Reliability of Special Protection Systems, J. D. Mc-

Calley, W. Fu, IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,

Vol. 14, no. 4, Feb. 1999, pp. 14001406.

27) MicroturbineAn Economic and Reliability Evalua-

tion for Commercial, Residential, and Remote Load Ap-

plication, M. W. Davis, A. H. Gifford, T. J. Krupa,

IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 14, No. 4,

Feb. 1999, pp. 15561562.

28) Impact of Cogenerated Energy on a Power System,

R. Gupta, N. Chowdhury, R. Billinton, Journal of Insti-tute of Engineers Singapore, Vol. 38, no. 6, July 1999,

pp. 4347.

29) Probabilistic Performance Assessment of Autonomous

Solar-Wind Energy Conversion Systems, S. H. Karaki,

R. B. Chedid, R. Ramadan, IEEE Transactions on En-

ergy Conversion, Vol. 14, no. 3, Sept. 1999, pp. 766772.

X. CONCLUSION

In compiling any bibliography of related publications, it is not

possible to make it absolutely complete. The authors would like


8/8


to apologize for any errors or omissions and hope that additional

references will be advanced as discussion to this publication.

Roy Billinton (F78) came to Canada from England in 1952. Received theB.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees from the University of Manitoba and the Ph.D. andD.Sc. degrees from the University of Saskatchewan. Worked for ManitobaHydro in the System Planning and Production Divisions. Joined the University

of Saskatchewan in 1964. Formerly Head of the Electrical Engineering Depart-ment. Presently, C. J. Mackenzie Professor of Engineering and Associate Dean,Graduate Studies, Research and Extension of the College of Engineering.

Author of papers on Power System Analysis, Stability, Economic System Op-eration and Reliability. Author or co-author of eight books on reliability. Fellowof the IEEE, the EIC and the Royal Society of Canada and a Professional Engi-neer in the Province of Saskatchewan.

Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad (SM99) was born in Iran. Received the B.Sc.(Hons.) and M.Sc. degrees in electrical engineering from Sharif University ofTechnologyand TehranUniversity, Tehran,Iran, in 1986and 1989, respectively,andthe M.Sc. andPh.D. degrees in electrical engineering from theUniversity ofSaskatchewan,Saskatoon, Canada, where he is presentlya Post-doctoral Fellow.His area of research interest is power system reliability evaluation.

Lina Bertling is a Ph.D. student at the Department of Electrical Power Sys-tems at the Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), in Sweden. She received theM.Sc. degree in 1997 in system engineering from the KTH. Her research area isreliability evaluation of electrical distribution systems with focus on reliabilitycentered maintenance. The project is sponsored by the Competence Center ofElectrical Power System at KTH.

00962402_bibliography on the application of probability methods in power system reliability...

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