0-lsl impacts of ruc and offline non-spin on 2011

April 9th 2012

QMWG

0-LSL Impacts of RUC and Offline Non-Spin

on 2011

Resmi Surendran

2

0 – LSL Analysis Approach

Determine the effect of LSL energy from OFFNS/ RUC when BP=LSL – Extent EOC to 0, relax LDL to 0 and rerun SCED clearing engine to

get new lambda

– Additional PNM for each SCED interval is estimated as• If original pnm = 0 then addition =max(0, new lambda-10*FIP)* time else

if original pnm > 0 then addition = max(0, increase in lambda)* time

– Make-whole payment needed is estimated as• ½ (new lambda – old lambda) * sum of relaxed LSL * time

– Additional increase in cost is estimated as• (new lambda – old lambda) * total generation * time

ERCOT PublicMarch 2012

3

0 – LSL Studies

• QSGR – Case study of March 2nd

• OFFNS/ ONRUC – From Dec 1st 2010 to Jan 31st 2012– For the OFFNS units with BP=LSL, apply the 180 floor to the unit

EOC from 0 to HSL – For the ONRUC units with BP=LSL, apply the SWCAP floor to the

unit EOC From 0 to HSL


4

Effect of Quick Start Resources Dispatch on March 2nd, 2012

• 0-LSL deployment from QSGR– 2756.9 MWh

• Minimum 3 MW, Average 266.8 MW, Maximum 430 MW

• Approach– Extended EOC to 0MW, set LDL to 0 for QSGRs dispatched by

SCED at LSL and then reran SCED clearing engine

• Results– Average system lambda increase is $80.5– PNM addition is estimated to be $830 (FIP was 2.355) – Make whole payment is estimated to be 151k– Estimated additional increase in cost is 380k


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0 – LSL OFFNS/ ONRUC MW


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0- LSL OFFNS/ ONRUC Effective MW


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Monthly Summary of 0-LSL for OFFNS/ONRUC


dataset 201012 201101 201102 201103 201104 201105 201106 201107 201108 201109 201110 201111 201112 201201

# of sced runs with 0-LSL >0 4,504 2,128 3,298 1,310 2,584 3,297 2,909 898 692 303 553 1,573 117 48

Increased cost ($K) $7,582 $9,392 $593,208 $26,404 $17,913 $105,684 $95,579 $10,279 $47,475 $1,122 $2,462 $3,299 $50 $8

Estimated Make whole payment ($K) $17 $33 $2,724 $250 $93 $1,122 $141 $17 $22 $1 $17 $5 $0 $0

MW weighted avg inc in lambda considering only

the intervals with 0-LSL>0 ($/MWh)

$0.74 $1.45 $55.04 $7.54 $2.49 $9.55 $8.66 $2.63 $13.13 $1.04 $1.76 $0.82 $0.14 $0.06

Time weighted SCED MWs considering only the

intervals with 0-LSL>0 (GWh)

10,208 6,464 10,778 3,501 7,195 11,072 11,036 3,906 3,616 1,082 1,398 4,027 365 124

Effective hour with 0-LSL>0 (Hour) 320 177 267 107 209 271 237 75 57 25 45 130 10 4

Max lambda increase ($/MWh) $41 $355 $2,918 $150 $124 $2,975 $2,888 $104 $2,434 $31 $10 $183 $7 $0

MW weighted avg inc in lambda considering all

intervals ($/MWh)$0.32 $0.37 $25.21 $1.17 $0.73 $3.83 $2.87 $0.29 $1.25 $0.04 $0.10 $0.15 $0.00 $0.00

Time weighted SCED MWs considering all intervals

(GWh)23,864 25,560 23,529 22,541 24,390 27,571 33,300 36,044 37,906 29,753 24,563 22,119 24,841 23,849

Overall_days (Days) 31 31 28 31 30 31 30 31 31 30 31 30 31 31

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Summary of 0-LSL for OFFNS/ONRUC (Excluding Feb 2011)

Data Results

# of sced runs with 0-LSL >0 20,916

Increased cost ($) $327,248,462.94

Estimated Make whole payment ($) $1,717,736.92MW weighted avg inc in lambda considering only the intervals with 0-LSL>0 ($/MWh) $5.11Time weighted SCED MWs considering only the intervals with 0-LSL>0 (MWh) 63,993,286.03Effective hour with 0-LSL>0 (Hour) 1,665.55

Max lambda increase ($/MWh) $2,974.72

MW weighted avg inc in lambda considering all intervals ($/MWh) $0.86

Time weighted SCED MWs considering all intervals (MWh) 379,831,377.41

Overall_days (Days) 427


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Summary of 0-LSL for OFFNS/ONRUC (Dec 2010 – Jan 2012)

Data Results

# of sced runs with 0-LSL >0 24,214

Increased cost ($) $920,456,117.83

Estimated Make whole payment ($) $4,441,567.83MW weighted avg inc in lambda considering only the intervals with 0-LSL>0 ($/MWh) $12.31Time weighted SCED MWs considering only the intervals with 0-LSL>0 (MWh) 74,771,670.41Effective hour with 0-LSL>0 (Hour) 1,932.50

Max lambda increase ($/MWh) $2,974.72

MW weighted avg inc in lambda considering all intervals ($/MWh) $2.42

Time weighted SCED MWs considering all intervals (MWh) 379,831,377.41

Overall_days (Days) 427


10

PNM Change for OFFNS/ONRUC (Dec 2010 – Jan 2012)


Month PNM PNM Adder

201101 4,187.37 39.55

201102 20,809.51 10,219.18

201103 2,291.49 171.44

201104 1,817.58 184.14

201105 2,692.40 2,342.30

201106 4,869.96 1,286.19

201107 6,057.70 143.20

201108 69,569.47 664.32

201109 5,471.17 11.58

201110 1,929.56 3.76

201111 3,890.08 34.29

201112 1,414.39 0.71

Total 125,000.68 15,100.64

New PNM 140,101.32

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Monthly Estimated Impact for OFFNS/ONRUC (Excluding Feb 2011)


12

Percentiles of Estimated Impact for OFFNS/ONRUC (Excluding Feb 2011)


13

Appendix


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PNM Change for OFFNS/ONRUC (Excluding Feb 2011)


Month PNM PNM Adder

201101 4,187.37 39.55

201102 20,809.51 0.00

201103 2,291.49 171.44

201104 1,817.58 184.14

201105 2,692.40 2,342.30

201106 4,869.96 1,286.19

201107 6,057.70 143.20

201108 69,569.47 664.32

201109 5,471.17 11.58

201110 1,929.56 3.76

201111 3,890.08 34.29

201112 1,414.39 0.71

Total 125,000.68 4,881.46

New PNM 129,882.14

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Monthly Estimated Impact for OFFNS/ONRUC (Dec 2010 – Jan 2012)


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Percentiles of Estimated Impact for OFFNS/ONRUC (Dec 2010 – Jan 2012)


0-lsl impacts of ruc and offline non-spin on 2011

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