0 cdfg sjr fall-run chinook salmon model cwemf november 4, 2005
TRANSCRIPT
11
CDFGCDFGSJR Fall-run Chinook SJR Fall-run Chinook
Salmon ModelSalmon Model
CWEMF CWEMF November 4, 2005November 4, 2005
22
ObjectivesObjectives
• Brief Overview of Model Development Brief Overview of Model Development
• Describe Model StructureDescribe Model Structure
• Describe Model Calibration/ValidationDescribe Model Calibration/Validation
• Describe Model ScenariosDescribe Model Scenarios
33
OverviewOverview
San Joaquin River Salmon Production as a function of Spring Vernalis Flow
44
Study AreaStudy Area
Courtesy of USFWS
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Salmon Life HistorySalmon Life History
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Salmon CohortSalmon Cohort“Singe Year Production Indicator”“Singe Year Production Indicator”
Age 1
Age 2
Age 3
Age 4
Age 5
Brood Year Production Juvenile
CWT RecoveryScale Analysis
77
Salmon EscapementSalmon Escapement“Multi-Year Production Indicator”“Multi-Year Production Indicator”
Age 1
Age 2
Age 3
Age 4
Age 5
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Annual Carcass “Creamer” Survey
88
1995 WQCP Triennial Review1995 WQCP Triennial Review
CDFG Challenge: CDFG Challenge:
– Are the Flow Objectives Working?Are the Flow Objectives Working?
– What is the status of the salmon What is the status of the salmon population?population?
– What fraction of juvenile salmon are What fraction of juvenile salmon are receiving protection?receiving protection?
– What is the status of the VAMP experiment?What is the status of the VAMP experiment?
99
Populations Are DecliningPopulations Are DecliningS
J B
asi
n P
rod
uct
ion
Year
1983-1995 Average 42,285
1996-2004 Average 35,004
1010
Level of ProtectionLevel of Protection
1111
VAMP ImplementationVAMP Implementation
• VAMP:VAMP:• Lock Down Uncertainty at Extremes FirstLock Down Uncertainty at Extremes First• Since 2000:Since 2000:
• Result:Result:• Continued uncertainty Continued uncertainty • Need several successive high flow range tests to Need several successive high flow range tests to
define/solidify relationshipdefine/solidify relationship
FlowFlow 32003200 44504450 61006100 70007000
TestsTests 33 11 11 00
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More Flow = More SalmonMore Flow = More SalmonApr-May Vernalis Flow (cfs) vs Salmon Production Cohort (1967-1999)
Pre-1995y = 2.2874x + 494.36
R2 = 0.7373P = 0.001
Post-1995y = 2.0385x + 5027.7
R2 = 0.7216P = 0.001
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000
Apr-May Vernalis Flow (mean daily cfs)
Sa
lmo
n C
oh
ort
1313
2005 SWRCB ’95 WQCP Review2005 SWRCB ’95 WQCP Review
• CDFG:CDFG:• presented its concernspresented its concerns• asked for peer reviewasked for peer review
• SWRCB: SWRCB: • peer reviewed already occurredpeer reviewed already occurred• CDFG: develop flow recommendationsCDFG: develop flow recommendations
1414
ChalkboardChalkboard
What +/- What = More Salmon?
E = mc?
Harvest?Exports?Disease?Predation?Flow?Gravel?
1515
Model LogicModel Logic• Delta ExportsDelta Exports
• weak correlation to cohort productionweak correlation to cohort production
1616
Model LogicModel Logic• Ocean HarvestOcean Harvest
• weak correlation to cohort productionweak correlation to cohort production
Harvest - Sacramento, San Harvest - Sacramento, San Joaquin and CVIJoaquin and CVI
Ocean Harvest versus Tuolumne Ocean Harvest versus Tuolumne EscapementEscapement
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Model LogicModel Logic• Adult Stock Density LimitationsAdult Stock Density Limitations
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
Previous Year Escapement
Mos
sdal
e S
mol
ts
Ricker Stock-recruit relationship Ricker Stock-recruit relationship (density dependent mortality (density dependent mortality
governor) appears questionablegovernor) appears questionable
More females = more juveniles More females = more juveniles (Tuolumne River)(Tuolumne River)
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Higher Escapement
Higher Spring Flow
Higher Cohort Production
Higher Escapement
Lower Spring Flow
Lower Cohort Production
Multiple Regression1973-1999
R-square = 0.75P = .001
Density Dependent Governor ?
Adult Stock Density LimitationsAdult Stock Density Limitations
yearyear # of # of femalesfemales
Flow at Flow at ModestoModesto
Adult Adult CohortCohort
19801980 341341 358358 22172217
19811981 62716271 71007100 1945819458
19821982 42764276 98449844 4486444864
19841984 46544654 363363 15011501
19851985 2258022580 39503950 1937319373
19861986 35543554 594594 13031303
19871987 45734573 257257 125125
19881988 34673467 263263 7070
19961996 15931593 13761376 91059105
19971997 42074207 47044704 2200022000
19981998 40374037 19971997 53105310Tuolumne River data
1919
Model LogicModel Logic• Instream FlowInstream Flow
Strong correlation to cohort Strong correlation to cohort production in relation to spring flowproduction in relation to spring flow
SJB east-side tributaries principle SJB east-side tributaries principle flow & salmon contributorflow & salmon contributor
2020
Flow FeaturesFlow Features
Increased Vernalis Flow Increased Vernalis Flow Magnitude/Duration/Frequency all Magnitude/Duration/Frequency all projected increased adult salmon projected increased adult salmon productionproduction
2121
Now What?Now What?• Challenge: “How to link salmon life Challenge: “How to link salmon life
history production to flow magnitude history production to flow magnitude & duration?”& duration?”
• Solution: “Develop a tool”Solution: “Develop a tool”
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Model ConceptModel Concept
• Flow primary driving factor in population (not Flow primary driving factor in population (not harvest, exports or adult stock density)harvest, exports or adult stock density)
• Quantify relationships between:Quantify relationships between:• flow and juvenile productionflow and juvenile production• flow and juvenile survivalflow and juvenile survival• juvenile survival and adult escapementjuvenile survival and adult escapement
• Simulate production over timeSimulate production over time
2323
Eureka! The Light Bulbs Went On!Eureka! The Light Bulbs Went On!
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Model FeaturesModel Features• Excel spreadsheet platformExcel spreadsheet platform• Links life history stages by numerical Links life history stages by numerical
production at each phaseproduction at each phase• Predicts adult escapement (1967-2000)Predicts adult escapement (1967-2000)• Flow duration & magnitude variable Flow duration & magnitude variable • Predicts escapement change & water Predicts escapement change & water
volumevolume• Has 95% confidence level predictionsHas 95% confidence level predictions• Customizable input parametersCustomizable input parameters
2525
Model RefinementsModel Refinements
• Limits predictions to data setLimits predictions to data set• Uses San Joaquin Basin data for age Uses San Joaquin Basin data for age
cohort reconstructioncohort reconstruction• Smolt Outmigration pattern WY Type Smolt Outmigration pattern WY Type
specificspecific• Allows for HORB/non-HORB smolt Allows for HORB/non-HORB smolt
survivalsurvival• 95% confidence levels predictions95% confidence levels predictions
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Conceptual ModelConceptual ModelVernalis
FlowMossdale
Smolts Delta Survival
Chipps Smolts
Adult Cohort
Escapement Reconstruction
Annual Escapement (spawners)
2727
Vernalis Flow - Mossdale SmoltsVernalis Flow - Mossdale Smolts
2828
Outmigration PatternOutmigration Pattern
2929
Conceptual ModelConceptual ModelVernalis
FlowMossdale
Smolts Delta Survival
Chipps Smolts
Adult Cohort
Escapement Reconstruction
Annual Escapement (spawners)
3030
Delta SurvivalDelta Survival
3131
Conceptual ModelConceptual ModelVernalis
FlowMossdale
Smolts Delta Survival
Chipps Smolts
Adult Cohort
Escapement Reconstruction
Annual Escapement (spawners)
3232
Adults versus OutmigrantsAdults versus Outmigrants
3333
Reconstruct Adult EscapementReconstruct Adult Escapement
EscapementEscapementYearYear
EscapementEscapement
SmoltSmoltProductionProduction
YearYear
CohortCohort##
Age Cohort %'sAge Cohort %'sAge 1Age 1 Age 2Age 2 Age 3Age 3 Age 4Age 4 Age 5Age 5
0.05%0.05% 30.00%30.00% 55.35%55.35% 14.00%14.00% 0.60%0.60%
19671967 19681968 276276 00 8383 153153 3939 22
19681968 19691969 9860398603 4949 29,58129,581 54,57754,577 13,80413,804 592592
19691969 19701970 14031403 11 421421 776776 196196 88
19701970 19711971 11191119 11 336336 620620 157157 77
19711971 19721972 461461 00 138138 255255 6464 33
19721972 14,91914,919 19731973 26382638 11 791791 1,4601,460 369369 1616
19731973 1,5471,547 19741974 36453645 22 1,0941,094 2,0182,018 510510 2222
19741974 1,2131,213 19751975 33043304 22 991991 1,8291,829 463463 2020
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SJR Scale vs CV CWTSJR Scale vs CV CWT
3535
Repeat CycleRepeat CycleCombine spawners with Vernalis Combine spawners with Vernalis
flow to predict Mossdale Smolt flow to predict Mossdale Smolt ProductionProduction
Vernalis Flow Mossdale
Smolts Delta Survival
Chipps Smolts
Adult Cohort
Escapement Reconstruction
Annual Escapement (spawners)
3636
Model Calibration & ValidationModel Calibration & Validation
• Two ApproachesTwo Approaches• Calibrate with subset/validate with Calibrate with subset/validate with
remainingremaining• Calibrate with entire data setCalibrate with entire data set
• ParametersParameters• Escapement patternEscapement pattern• Time period average Time period average • Replacement ratioReplacement ratio• Stay within 95% CIStay within 95% CI
3737
SJ Basin Escapement 1967-2000SJ Basin Escapement 1967-2000
-----Historic -----Modeled
3838
95% Confidence Intervals95% Confidence Intervals
Historic Upper 95% CI Lower 95% CI
3939
Model ScenariosModel Scenarios
• Ten model runsTen model runs
• Four presentedFour presented
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What ScenariosWhat Scenarios
• Possible Goal Attainment ScenariosPossible Goal Attainment Scenarios• Vary Flow with Window ConstantVary Flow with Window Constant
• VAMP (3200-7000 with 31 day window)VAMP (3200-7000 with 31 day window)
• Constant Flow & Window ConstantConstant Flow & Window Constant• 10,000 all WY Types & 31 day window10,000 all WY Types & 31 day window
• Constant Flow & Variable WindowConstant Flow & Variable Window• 10,000 all WY Types & Variable WY Window10,000 all WY Types & Variable WY Window
• Variable Flow & Variable WindowVariable Flow & Variable Window• 5-20K Flow & 31-90 day Window5-20K Flow & 31-90 day Window
4141
10 Chosen10 ChosenModel Scenarios
Scenario Flow Range Window Duration Notes
1 5-7K 31 Days No HORB
2 5-7K 31 Days HORB
3 5K 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 Days Duration & magnitude constant
4 10K 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 Days Duration & magnitude constant
5 15K 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 Days Duration & magnitude constant
6 5-10K 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 Days Duration constant & magnitude variable
7 5-15k 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 Days Duration constant & magnitude variable
8 5-20K 30, 45, 60, 75, 90 Days Duration constant & magnitude variable
9 5-15K Variable with WY Type Duration & magnitude variable
10 5-20K Variable with WY Type Duration & magnitude variable
4242
Existing Flow MagnitudeExisting Flow Magnitude
4343
Vernalis Flow thousand-cfsVernalis Flow thousand-cfs 2-72-7
Duration (days)Duration (days) 3030
Predicted Escapement (25 year average)Predicted Escapement (25 year average) 17,09717,097
Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average)Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average) 579579
Percent Increase in EscapementPercent Increase in Escapement 4%4%
Replacement RatioReplacement Ratio 1.121.12
Average Annual acre-feetAverage Annual acre-feet 65,97865,978
Percent Additional WaterPercent Additional Water 10%10%
Percent of Water AvailablePercent of Water Available 2%2%
Salmon per 1000 acre-feetSalmon per 1000 acre-feet 99
D-1641 Flows (No HORB)D-1641 Flows (No HORB)
4444
Vernalis Flow thousand-cfsVernalis Flow thousand-cfs 2-72-7
Duration (days)Duration (days) 3030
Predicted Escapement (25 year average)Predicted Escapement (25 year average) 17,88817,888
Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average)Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average) 1,3701,370
Percent Increase in EscapementPercent Increase in Escapement 8%8%
Replacement RatioReplacement Ratio 1.121.12
Average Annual acre-feetAverage Annual acre-feet 65,97865,978
Percent Additional WaterPercent Additional Water 10%10%
Percent of Water AvailablePercent of Water Available 2%2%
Salmon per 1000 acre-feetSalmon per 1000 acre-feet 1616
D-1641 Flows (With HORB)D-1641 Flows (With HORB)
4545
Constant FlowConstant Flow
4646
Vernalis Flow thousand-cfsVernalis Flow thousand-cfs 1010
Duration (days)Duration (days) 6060
Predicted Escapement (25 year average)Predicted Escapement (25 year average) 24,90324,903
Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average)Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average) 8,3858,385
Percent Increase in EscapementPercent Increase in Escapement 51%51%
Replacement RatioReplacement Ratio 1.101.10
Average Annual acre-feetAverage Annual acre-feet 635,797635,797
Percent Additional WaterPercent Additional Water 43%43%
Percent of Water AvailablePercent of Water Available 21%21%
Salmon per 1000 acre-feetSalmon per 1000 acre-feet 1313
Constant FlowConstant Flow
4747
Flow Varies by Water Year TypeFlow Varies by Water Year Type
4848
Vernalis Flow thousand-cfsVernalis Flow thousand-cfs 5-155-15
Duration (days)Duration (days) 6060
Predicted Escapement (25 year average)Predicted Escapement (25 year average) 25,92925,929
Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average)Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average) 9,4119,411
Percent Increase in EscapementPercent Increase in Escapement 57%57%
Replacement RatioReplacement Ratio 1.161.16
Average Annual acre-feetAverage Annual acre-feet 593,693593,693
Percent Additional WaterPercent Additional Water 42%42%
Percent of Water AvailablePercent of Water Available 14%14%
Salmon per 1000 acre-feetSalmon per 1000 acre-feet 16 16
Flow varies by Water Year TypeFlow varies by Water Year Type
4949
Variable Flow and DurationVariable Flow and Duration
5050
Variable Flow and DurationVariable Flow and Duration
Vernalis Flow thousand-cfsVernalis Flow thousand-cfs 5-205-20
Duration—Variable by WY Type (days)Duration—Variable by WY Type (days) 30-9030-90
Predicted Escapement (25 year average)Predicted Escapement (25 year average) 37,18137,181
Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average)Additional Predicted Escapement (25 year average) 20,66320,663
Percent Increase in EscapementPercent Increase in Escapement 125%125%
Replacement RatioReplacement Ratio 1.221.22
Average Annual acre-feetAverage Annual acre-feet 991,795991,795
Percent Additional WaterPercent Additional Water 46%46%
Percent of Water AvailablePercent of Water Available 17%17%
Salmon per 1000 acre-feetSalmon per 1000 acre-feet 2121
5151
ConclusionConclusion
Stanislaus River
San Joaquin River
5252
What Now?What Now?
• Model DocumentationModel Documentation• Release Model/ReportRelease Model/Report• Model RefinementsModel Refinements• Peer ReviewPeer Review
• Develop questionsDevelop questions
5353
Peer Review QuestionsPeer Review Questions
• What is the best way to test model results? What is the best way to test model results? • Is there a better population health Is there a better population health
barometer than “replacement ratio and barometer than “replacement ratio and escapement”?escapement”?
• What is the influence of cascading What is the influence of cascading confidence intervals?confidence intervals?
• Other Questions?Other Questions?
5454
Input & QuestionsInput & Questions
• Provide comments and questions to: Provide comments and questions to: dmarstondmarston@@dfgdfg.ca..ca.govgov
5555
Q & AQ & A