© world meteorological organization world meteorological organization working together in weather,...

© World Meteorological Organization

World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water

First Technical Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Data, Metadata and

Hazard Analysis to Support Risk Assessment and Analysis

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/projects/Thematic/HazardRisk/2013-04-TechWks/index_en.html

Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction programme

10-14 June 2013WMO HQ, Geneva

www.wmo.int

WMO


Content• Impacts of weather-, water-, and climate-related

hazards in a changing Climate• Background • Role of WMO for Development of Guidelines and

International Standards • About the Workshop

– Objectives– Participants– List of documents– Outputs

• Next Steps


Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.be Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

WMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data

Global

© World Meteorological OrganizationWMO/CRED Analysis using EM-DAT data

Global


Global

Droughts in East Africa (1983-1984): 550,000 deaths

Bhola Cyclone in Banglasdesh (1970):

300,000 deaths Cyclone Gorky in Bangladesh (1991): 139,000 deaths


Global

Hurricane Katrina in the United-States (2005): $US

142 billion


Socio-economic Impacts of Weather and Climate-Related Extremes on the Rise !

Intensity

Frequency

Heatwaves

Heavy rainfall / Flood

Strong Wind

Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement

PeoplePeople AgricultureAgriculture

EnergyEnergy

Urban areasUrban areas

Need for Disaster Risk Financing, Transfer and

Multi-sectoral RiskManagement

Drought

TransportationTransportationHazard intensity and frequency increasing linked

to climate variability and change!

Vulnerability and exposure on the rise !


Content• Impacts of weather-, water-, and climate-related hazards in a

changing Climate

• Background

• Role of WMO for Development of Guidelines and International Standards

• About the Workshop

– Objectives

– Participants

– List of documents

– Outputs

• Next Steps


WMO DRR Programme Strategic Foundation

WMO Strategic Plan

2008-2015(Top Level Objectives and

Five Strategic Thrusts)

Hyogo Framework for Action

2005-2015

(World Conference on Disaster Reduction)

WMO strategic priorities

in Disaster Risk Reduction

Consultations with WMO governing bodies, Regional and National

network and partners


Meteorological, Hydrological and Climate Services are critical to risk assessment and DRR decision-making

Hyogo-Framework for Action 2005-2015

Risk Financing and TransferRisk Assessment

Hazard databases and metadata

Forecasting and projections

Loss and damage databases

Exposure and vulnerability

Statistical and forward looking approaches

PREPAREDNESS: Early Warning Systems emergency planning

PREVENTION and MITIGATION: Sectoral Medium to long term planning (e.g. zoning, infrastructure, agriculture…)

Gov Investments, trust funds (ex-ante, post disaster)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather-indexed insurance and derivatives

Other emerging products

Risk Reduction

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

Governance and Institutional Framework (Policy, Legislation, legal framework, institutional coordination)

(Multi-sector, Multi-level, Multi-Hazard)

31

5

4

2

6© World Meteorological Organization


WMO Strategic Priorities in DRRApproved by WMO Congress XVI (2011)

• Providing data, analysis and hazard information for risk assessment, sectoral planning, risk financing and transfer and other informed decision-making;

• Development, improvement and sustainability of Multi-Hazard early warning systems;

• Development and delivery of warnings, specialized forecasts driven by requirements in socio-economic sectors;

• Better integration of meteorological, hydrological and climate information in risk management in socio economic sectors (e.g., land use planning and infrastructure design),

• Continued public education and outreach campaigns; and,

• Strengthening cooperation and partnerships with DRR stakeholders


Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Northern AtlanticOscillation

IPCC AssessmentsUNFCCC

negotiations

WMO Co-Sponsors and Coordinates International Research Programmes: Modeling and forecasting of

Weather and Climate World Climate Research Programme, World Weather Research Programme

National Operational forecasting

systems


WMO Coordinates a Global Operational Network

189 Members


WMO DRR Two-tier Work PlanAdopted by EC 64, item 4.2, Resolution 8 and its Annex

Doc 4.2 Progress Report Paras 2 and 3

1

2

Regional Associations

Technical Commissions


User-Driven Expert Advisory Groups (EAG) to guide WMO activities (EC 64 and 65)


User-Driven Expert Advisory Groups (EAG) to guide WMO DRR Guidelines and Capacity development projects

Participating experts from partner agencies

EAG on Hazard/Risk Analysis

World Bank, UNDP-GRIP, WFP, UN-ISDR, UNFCCC, UNEP, UNESCO-IOC, UNITAR/UNOSAT, OECD, GEM, CRED, Munich Re, Swiss Re, WRN, Experts from Risk Modelling Sectors, ESRI, CIMH, RCCs, NMHS

CBS, CCL, CHy, CAgM, CIMO, JCOMM, CAS, Tropical Cyclone Program,

• First meeting in March/April 2014


Priority Hazards Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey

(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html)

Droughts, Flash and river floods, forest and wild fires, heat waves and cold spells, land- and mud-slides, marine and aviation hazards, strong

winds and severe storms, tropical cyclones and storm surges

Other: volcanic ash transport, air pollution, locust swarms, health epidemics, tsunami, etc…


Other National Agencies Involved in DRR(e.g. Hydrological Services, Ocean Services, Health Services, Space)

Global & Regional Specialized Meteorological & Climate

Centers (GPC, RSMC and RCC)

Government (national to local) Socio-economi sectors Private Sector NGOs General Public Media Etc...

Core Operatioinal Components

National Meteorological Service (NMS)

Observing network Operational Forecasting Telecommunications Human Resource Data Management Systems Etc...

Data, Forecast, Analysis Products & Services for:

Quality Managment Systems (QMS)

National DRR Stakeholders

RequirmentsService Delivery

Feedback

Agreements&

SOPs

GTS/WISAgreements & SOPs

Agreements & SOPs

National DRR Governance and Institutional Frameworks

RegionalDRR Governance and Institutional Frameworks

Nat

ion

alR

egio

nal

f

b

a

e

e

d

Risk Analysis Early Warnnings Sectoral Planning

Disaster Risk Financing and insurance

c

Weather, Climate and Hydrological Services to support DRR Decision-MakingDoc 4.2- Progress Report Para 1

WMO TC’s

CBSCCLCHy

JCOMMCASCIMOCAeMCAgM

WMO TC’s

CAgMCAeMCBS Regional Associations

Members


Increasing level of operational coordination with DRM agencies and sectors

Increasing Level of operational coordination and cooperation with other national technical and sectoral agencies for early detection, monitoring and

development of hazard information

Type I Type II Type III

Hazard fully under the

mandate of NMS

Hazard under joint mandate of

NMS with another technical agency

(e.g., NHS)

Hazard under mandate of other agencies but NMS

contribute

e.g. strong winds, strong rainfall,

snow/ice, hail, tropical cyclone

e.g. floods, landslides, heat/health etc.

e.g. locust, health epidemic, man-made

hazards

Example of cooperation of NMS with technical and DRR stakeholders in context of different hazard types


Facilitating development of products and services for Disaster Risk Reduction

Reduction of Reduction of RisksRisks: Life, economics: Life, economics

National Multi-sector Multi-agency coordination and National Multi-sector Multi-agency coordination and planning at national to local levelsplanning at national to local levels

DRM and civil protection, agriculture, health, water DRM and civil protection, agriculture, health, water resource management, infrastructure and planning, resource management, infrastructure and planning,

insurance and financial markets, etcinsurance and financial markets, etc

Research and modelingResearch and modelingObservations and Observations and datadata

Forecasting and analysis toolsForecasting and analysis tools

Regional aspects

Regional aspects

Products and Service Delivery Products and Service Delivery

International aspectsInternational aspects

Capacity Building


Risk Assessment and Probabilistic Risk analysis (near real time, statistical, forward looking

approaches)

Historical Climate and Hazard Data

Historical Loss and damage

Probabilistic forward-looking

Climate and Hazard modeling

Exposure and vulnerability

development - engineering

Probabilistic

analysis

Statistical with forward looking

climate and Hazard Modeling

Forward looking

Statistical with forward looking exposure/vulnerability Modeling

1

2 4

3



Simplified Schematic: Hazard / Risk Assessment (statistical and forward looking)

Hazard Analysis and

Mapping

Exposure and

Vulnerability

Potential Loss

Estimates

Decisions

Heavy Precipitation and flood mapping

Assets: population density agricultural land urban gridInfrastructureBusinessesetc

Number of lives at risk

$ at riskDestruction of buildings and infrastructure

Reduction in crop yields

Business interruption

etc

Need for historical and real time hazard data

meteorological, hydrological and climate

forecasts and trend analysis

Need for historical loss and damage data,

Development and engineering information

Policy and planning

Disaster Risk Financing

EWS

Sectoral Risk

Managment


• "Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters, The Economics of Effective Prevention," World Bank & UN (2011)

Global Reports on Risk (Socio-Economic Aspects)

• "2nd Global Assessment Report: Revealing Risk, Redefining Development,” UN (2011)

• "1st Global Assessment Report: Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate,” UN (2009)

• “Natural Disaster Hotspots Case Studies, “World Bank (2006)

• CRED Annual Disaster Statistic Review• Swiss Re Annual Natural Catastrophe and Man-

made Disasters

• Munich Re Annual Review of Natural Catastrophe

• 3rd Global Assessment Report: From Shared Risk to shared Value,” UN (2013)


• Risk Financing• Early Warning Systems development and on-going

operations• Socio-economic sectors:

– Land zoning – Infrastructure and urban planning– Financing /Insurance – Agricultural productivity and food security – Tourism– Health epidemics– Water resource management– Transport, etc…

Need for risk analysis and integration of risk information in decision support tools (local, national and trans-

boundary, regional and global!)


Risk Analysis to Decision Making

• Data: Hazard, Asset (Exposure), Vulnerability– Data availability, quality, accessibility– Standards

• Analysis (Sectoral, time and space scales): – Technical tools and methodologies – Human resource/expertise– Computational capacities

• Integration: From data to risk to decision-making– Institutional cooperation and partnerships

• R&D in climate forecasting to Operational Systems• Infrastructure: from monitoring (data) to information

development, management and dissemination


Need for Modernization, Expansion and Sustainability ofMeteorological, Hydrological, Climate Observing NetworksWMO

© World Meteorological OrganizationPage numberTitle of presentation

Need for Modernization, Expansion and Sustainability ofMeteorological, Hydrological, Climate Observing NetworksWMO

• c


Data Rescue, Standards and Technical Expertise in Hazard Analysis

(Geo referencing loss and damage!!!)

Nu

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of

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20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Strong w

inds

Thunder

storm

or l

ight

ning

Drough

t

Heat w

ave

Flash

floo

d

River

floodin

g

Hails

torm

Dense

fog

Cold w

ave

Heavy

sno

w

Smoke

, Dust

or H

aze

Hazar

ds to

avi

atio

n

Earth

quakes

Coasta

l flo

oding

Tropic

al c

yclo

ne

Forest

or w

ildla

nd fire

Lands

lide o

r mudsl

ide

Freez

ing

rain

Storm

surg

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Tornad

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Wate

rborn

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ards

Airborn

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Mar

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azar

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Sandst

orm

Avala

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Tsuna

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Volcan

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Deser

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st s

war

m

Over 80 % of meteorological Services need:

• Data rescue, and management systems

• Standards for:

• Hazard database and metadata

• Hazard Definition/linkages

• Analysis and mapping tools Statistical analysis Climate modelling

• Human expertise

Source: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html


Open Data Policy and Exchange

• International data sharing policies facilitated by WMO Resolution 40 “WMO Policy and Practice for the Exchange of Meteorological and

Related Data …” was adopted by 12th WMO Congress in 1995. Resolution 25 “Exchange of Hydrological Data and Products” was adopted by the

13th WMO Congress in 1999

• Challenges with data policy and exchange • National security• Commercial • Not available or need for data rescue• Institutional turfs and silos

• Need for high-level policy discussion within and across governments


Seamless Meteorological and Climate Forecasts and Analysis to support risk analysis and

management







• Next Steps


WMO develops standards and technical guidelines …

• Meteorological, hydrological and climate instrumentation, observing networks, monitoring

• Meteorological, hydrological and climate related hazards, databases, metadata

• Forecasting tools (Weather, water and climate)• Quality assurance and verification (data, tools,

methodologies, etc)• International data sharing policies

– Resolution 40 “WMO Policy and Practice for the Exchange of Meteorological and Related Data …” was adopted by 12th WMO Congress in 1995.

– Resolution 25 “Exchange of Hydrological Data and Products” was adopted by the 13th WMO Congress in 1999”


Global Climate CentresGlobal Climate CentresGlobal Climate CentresGlobal Climate Centres

Regional Users

Regional Climate CentresRegional Climate Centres

Global Users

National Climate National Climate CentresCentres

National Climate National Climate CentresCentres

National Sectoral Users

Global Framework for Climate ServicesGlobal Framework for Climate ServicesTo Operational science-based climate information and prediction building on

the WMO globally coordinated operational framework






• Next Steps


First Technical Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Data, Metadata and

Hazard Analysis to Support Risk Assessment and Analysis

10-14 June 2013WMO HQ, Geneva

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/projects/Thematic/HazardRisk/2013-04-TechWks/index_en.html


About the WorkshopObjectives (Scoping)

• Explore considerations and needs for hazard information to conduct risk assessment and analysis

– Cascading hazards and geo-referencing of damage and loss data;• Document definitions and approaches of the participating Members,

similarities and differences among their approaches;• Review the mandate and related activities of the relevant WMO

Technical Commissions– related to the standardization of definitions, monitoring, detecting, as well as

mapping and forecasting tools for different hazards;• Explore challenges and opportunities for developing international

guidelines, manual and standards in this area, and; • Develop recommendations and priorities of action

– for consideration of the Management Groups of the WMO Technical Commissions for integration in their work planning and the first meeting of the EAG-HRA,


About the WorkshopParticipants

• Several countries, which systematically monitor, maintain databases and analyze hazards,

– Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Russian Federation, Switzerland, United States of America, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland;

• WMO Technical Commissions and Programmes responsible for the development of technical standards and guidelines

– CBS, CCL, CHy, JCOMM, CIMO, AgM, TCP

• Organizations with extensive experience in risk assessment and collection of damage and loss data

– Munich Re, CRED, UNISDR,UNDP


About the WorkshopDocuments

• Doc. 1: Draft Agenda of the Workshop• Doc. 2: Concept Note

– Annex I to Doc. 2: Guidelines for Preparation of Country Documents for the First Technical Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Databases, Metadata and Analysis Techniques to Support Risk Assessment

– Annex II to Doc. 2: Guidelines for Preparation of Technical Commission Documents for the First Technical Workshop on Standards for Hazard Monitoring, Databases, Metadata and Analysis Techniques to Support Risk Assessment

• Doc. 3: List of Participants.• Inf. 1: Logistical Information Note for Participants.


About the WorkshopOutputs

A comprehensive WMO Technical Report including:

(1)All documents, presentations prepared and presented in the workshop as the foundation knowledge underpinning the recommendations– Revised and updated documents to be submitted to WMO by

9 September 2013 for inclusion in the publication(2)A set of recommendations and priorities for action for

2013, 2015, 2017, 2019 timeframes – What specific guidelines and standards for hazard

definitions, , monitoring and detection, databases and metadata and hazard analysis and forecasting tools, for weather-, climate- and hydrological hazards


About the WorkshopNext Steps

• Presenting and discussing the report and recommendations to the Presidents and Management Groups of TCs

• Discussion of the priorities of actions and mechanisms at the Joint President’s of TC Meetings (Jan 2014)

• First Meeting of Expert Advisory Group on Hazard/Risk (Spring 2014)

• Work planning and implementation of priorities and deliverables through intra- and inter-commission mechanisms with Risk experts


About the WorkshopAgenda

• Session 1: Opening and introduction

• Session 2: Risk Analysis and Needs and Requirements for Hazard info – Chair: Angelika Wirtz

• Session 3: National Experiences and Practices for Monitoring, Detection, Development Of Databases, Metadata and Hazard Analysis – Chair: Graeme Forrester

• Session 4: Mandates and Relevant Activities of WMO Technical Commissions and Technical Programmes for Development of Guidelines, Manuals and Standards for Monitoring, Detection, Development of Databases, Metadata and Hazard Analysis

• Session 5: Examples of Other Relevant Activities and Initiatives– Sessions 4 and 5 Chair: Raymond Motha

• Session 6: Discussions, Priorities and Recommendations

• Session 7: Synthesis and drafting – Sessions 6 and 7 Co-chaired by Angelika Wirtz, Raymond Motha and Graeme Forrester


Drafting Team

• Co-chairs: Angelika Wirtz, Raymond Motha and Graeme Forrester

• Participants (experts from Members, TCs and organizations)

• WMO Secretariat support


About the WorkshopAgenda – Session 2

• Issues for discussions:

1) Diversity of disaster risk assessment and analysis stakeholders and their needs (local, national, regional, global, sectoral, etc) to support a diverse range of DRR related decisions.

2) Definitions of hazards and related cascading hazards from risk assessment and analysis perspectives versus meteorological, hydrological and climate perspectives.

3) Importance of hazard definition, data, metadata, analysis and mapping for collection of loss and damage data, risk assessment and risk analysis.

4) Needs and requirements of stakeholders that carry out risk assessment and risk analysis for hazard data, metadata, hazard analysis (historical versus forward looking).

5) Challenges with quality, availability, accessibility of hazard information at national, regional and global levels for risk assessment and risk analysis.



• Issues for discussions: 1) Definitions of hazards (and related cascading hazards) in your country, (from the list provided in the

questionnaire) Are there common definitions across the countries represented here? Are the definitions of hazards establish through legal instruments or remain at the discretion of technical agencies?

2) Institutional Aspects: Hazard Types (I, II, IIII) and roles of various agencies in monitoring, detection and maintenance of historical databases, metadata.

3) Institutional cooperation and partnerships among technical agencies for monitoring, detection, collection and development of databases and metadata. (space and in-situ).

4) Practices with development of integrated hazard databases, data management systems, metadata and quality assurance practices for Hazards Type I, II, III.

5) Practices for cooperation with other technical and sectoral agencies to provide hazard data for sectoral and other risk assessment and risk analysis to sectors (services for public and private sector).

6) Challenges in developing and providing systematic hazard information at national level.

7) Latest techniques for hazard analysis (statistical, now-casting and forecasting (short-weather to long-term climate time scales, spatial resolution and downscaling aspects)?

8) Implications of climate variability and climate change for operational hazard analysis.

9) Service delivery models for provision of hazard data, meta data and analysis and advisory services.



• Issues for discussions:

1) Mandate of Technical Commission related to the priority hazards (listed in the questionnaire for the TCs), development of definition, guidelines, manuals and standards for observing networks, historical and real-time data management systems (data, metadata, quality assurance practices), statistical analysis, now–casting and forecasting and projections in context of climate scenarios for hazards (short weather to long-term climate time lead times)?

2) What are the relevant activities of your Technical Commissions work plan to development of guidelines, manuals and standards related to the above issues (issue 1)

3) Definition on hazards developed by the Technical Commissions

4) Are there a list of existing guidelines, manuals and standards relevant to the objectives of this initiative developed in your commission, for what specific application (research, forecasting)?

5) Through what process you identify needs and requirements of new users (in this case the risk assessment and risk analysis community) to guide development of guidelines, manuals and standards in your commission?

6) What are the intra- and inter-commission mechanisms for development of guidelines, manuals and standards that are relevant to the objectives of this initiative?

7) Are the experts with hand-on experience in disaster risk assessment and risk analysis engaged in your Technical Commissions? To what extend you have already, or can engage new representatives from the user community (in this case experts from risk community) in the process of identification of requirements?


About the WorkshopAgenda – Session6 and 7

Issues for discussions (Session 6):

• Building on the priorities, needs and requirements for hazard information to support risk assessment and risk analysis, practices of Members and current work plan and activities of the Technical Commissions, develop recommendations for priority of actions to be carried out through intra- and inter-commission working arrangements with this target users community to develop the missing guidelines, manuals and standards with deliverables and timelines for this year based on what is available for the TCs, and then in 2, 4, and 6 years timeframes (2013, 2015, 2017, 2019).

Issues for discussions (Session 7): Recommendations for:

• Priority Hazards and related cascading hazards• Deliverables and timelines regarding development of hazard definition, and guidelines,

manuals and standards for hazard monitoring, detection, historical and real-time databases, metadata, mapping, analysis, now-casting, forecasting techniques (short-term to long-term climate timeframes)

• Needs for strengthening intra-, and inter-commission mechanisms to address these issues• How to engage the risk assessment and risk analysis experts in the TC working

arrangements• Other considerations and issues


For more information please contact:Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.ChiefDisaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel. +41.22.730.8006Email. [email protected]

Thank You

http://www.wmo.int/disasters


Capacity Assessment of NMHSSource: 2006 WMO Country-level DRR survey

(http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html)

• 70% need amendments of national policies and legislation

• 67% need modernization of meteorological infrastructure (e.g., observation networks, forecasting, telecommunication, data rescue,…)

• 80% need technical and management training

• 80% of need multi-sectoral institutional partnerships, coordination

Meteorological infrastructure/systems… high return on investment! Source: “Natural Hazard, UnNatural Disaster, Economics of Effective Prevention,” World Bank

and United Nation’s Report (2010)

Global Survey of Global Survey of Scientific and Scientific and

Technical Technical Capacities in Capacities in

Support of Disaster Support of Disaster Risk ReductionRisk Reduction


South East Europe (2007-

present)

8 countries

South East Asia (2010 –

present)

6 countries: Lao,

Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand,

Philippines, Indonesia

Central America and Caribbean

(2010- present )

Costa Rica and Caribbean

Islands

Comprehensive Capacity Development DRR and Adaptation Projects Underway

(Doc 4.2 Progress Report Para 3)

Haiti

2010 with Members

& UN

Partners: WMO, World Bank, UN-ISDR, UNDP, Regional Socio-economic Groupings and regional DRR agencies, Regional Centers, WMO Regional Association, NMHS, National DRM agencies and economic line ministries

GCC

Discussion underway

6 Countries

Africa Discussion underway

AMCOMET October 2012


WMO DRR Programme WebsiteWMO

http://www.wmo.int/disasters

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/index_en.html

ThematicProjects

National / RegionalCapacity Development