Numsa Media MonitorTuesday 19 April 2016

A daily compilation of local, national and international articles dealing with labour related issues

SA Unions

Cosatu plan to counter rival union

Mayibongwe Maqhina, Daily News, 19 April 2016

Durban - Cosatu is leaving nothing to chance as it has put into motion plans to counter the imminent formation of a rival labour federation by some of its former leaders.

Speaking at the shop stewards council meeting in Durban this week, Cosatu president Sdumo Dlamini spelled out the fightback strategy to reclaim its place.

At the centre of the strategy is massive recruitment drive of potential members.

A “mother of all rallies” is being planned to campaign for a long-standing resolution on several socio-economic issues in Durban on Saturday.

Coupled with this are efforts to foster unity within the ranks of Cosatu-affiliated unions.

“If Cosatu takes comfort that we had a successful national congress in December, and therefore we are in honeymoon, we do not live in South Africa. We live in a different world,” Dlamini said.

He warned about the formation of a new labour federation organised by Cosatu former general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi and others that could threaten Cosatu.

The labour federation is expected to hold a workers summit on April 30 in Boksburg, Gauteng, and a follow-on rally in Thembisa, also Gauteng, the next day, May Day.

However, Dlamini pledged Cosatu’s support to foster unity in affiliates that are embroiled in infighting and problems arising from the bruising national congress and

expulsion of Vavi and the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa), among others.

He also called on the Cosatu unions to take a leaf from the Liberated Metalworkers Union of South Africa (Limusa), which replaced the expelled Numsa within the metal and engineering sector.

According to Dlamini, Limusa has embarked on old tactics in recruitment of members, which entailed taking to taxi ranks, trains and workplaces.

“I want to challenge you, comrades, let’s go back to basics. Let’s go to the trains, taxi ranks on targeted days to get so much (new members).

“They (Limusa) take us to the old ways we used to recruit membership,” he said.

Dlamini also said: “If we don’t do that, we weaken ourselves. Let’s build our unions… because there is nothing that is available beside Cosatu.”

He warned against payment of commission to members for recruitment by some unions, saying “you are killing Cosatu in that way”.

Dlamini said the Saturday national march, organised in partnership with the SACP, should demonstrate that Cosatu was still alive.

“We understand the capacity of this province to pull the numbers to make it a national march. You did last year, so come to that march in your numbers,” Dlamini added.

The march will campaign on longstanding Cosatu resolutions on the pension tax laws, fast-tracking of comprehensive social security and implementation of national health insurance, among others.

Speaking to Daily News, Vavi laughed off the planned initiatives of Cosatu, saying they were the last kicks of a dying horse in response to the formation of the new union.

“They are not Cosatu. They can name themselves as Cosatu, but they know they are not Cosatu,” he said.

He also said the worker issues to be taken up in the Saturday march should be a normal programme of his former labour federation.

“It will no longer be able to take those campaigns. People who pushed those resolutions were kicked out of the federations, so as not to anger the ANC,” Vavi said.

He explained that the workers summit would decide whether the launch of the federation should go ahead on May Day.

“If workers agree that we go to a new federation, it should take us four months to a launch congress. But, May Day will be celebrated as a new federation,” he said.

http://www.iol.co.za/dailynews/news/cosatu-plan-to-counter-rival-union-2011375

Metal and Engineering Industries Bargaining Council (MEIBC) warns to shut its doors

Cape Business News, 19 April 2016

According to South African labour news and Business Times, the Metal and Engineering Industries Bargaining Council (MEIBC) warns to shut its doors if companies and unions do not agree to an 18% levy increase.

The council, which services about 300,000 employees and more than 10,000 employers, has not had a levy increase since 2011 and now has a R14m deficit.

It is unable to pay some service providers and has temporarily halted dispute resolution services due to lack of funds. The council has been asking for an increase in levies almost every year since 2011, but this has been rejected by employers because of slow economic growth and the contraction in the steel industry.

The levy collection was also affected by an industry strike in 2014 as well as a four-month delay in the renewal of the levy last year.

MEIBC general secretary Thulani Mthiyane is concerned that should the council close or cut its 150 staff members, the industry would deteriorate into a noncomplying and deregulated one.

Employers' organisation Seifsa is encouraging employers to look at the big picture. Irvin Jim of steelworkers union Numsa says the reason the council had not received any increase on levies was that there was a level of hostility from employers who were against collective bargaining.

The council will meet with employers and unions on 11 May to ask for the 18% increase in the levy.

http://www.cbn.co.za/component/k2/metal-and-engineering-industries-bargaining-council-meibc-warns-to-shut-its-doors

Fawu: SABMiller merger must not affect jobs

Siseko Njobeni, Business Report, 17 April 2016

Johannesburg - The Food and Allied Workers Union (Fawu) has demanded concrete commitments that the proposed merger between SABMiller, Gutsche Family Investments and Coca-Cola will not affect jobs and destroy local industries.

Fawu general secretary Katishi Masemola on Friday submitted a witness statement to the Competition Tribunal in preparation for the hearings on the merger next month.

Read: SABMiller, Coca-Cola gain approval for deal

Masemola declined to give details of his submission, but said his statement focused on job losses and the harmonisation of working conditions and benefits in the merging companies. He said Fawu wanted to get a breakdown of the 250 employees who might be retrenched as a result of the merger.

“We wanted to know if it is those at the top or staff at the bottom; we did not get that information,” Masemola said.

“We are disappointed that we did not get the information we were looking for. We needed that information in order to package our argument. We also wanted to know the impact of the merger on jobs in the supply chain.

“This includes jobs in the upstream, which is mainly the sugar industry and the downstream, which is jobs in retail and wholesale. We do not want to see any job losses.”

Last week’s agreement between the government and multinational brewing company Anheuser-Busch InBev, in which the company made a number of commitments on retrenchment and localisation, has raised the bar on mergers and acquisitions. Parties intervening in major mergers and acquisitions are likely to insist on stringent conditions.

The Competition Commission in December recommended a conditional approval of the merger, which will see the companies combine the bottling operations of their non-alcoholic beverages.

It pointed out that a number of suppliers would be placed in a weaker position as a result of the merger. “In other words, the merged entity is likely to gain significant bargaining power over its suppliers,” the commission said.

In order to address that concern, the merging companies undertook to purchase all tin cans, plastic bottles and closures, crates and sugar from local suppliers, the commission said at the time.

The merger will result in SABMiller transferring Appletiser, Grapetiser, Fruitiser, Peartiser and Lecol brands to Coca-Cola. SABMiller’s non-alcoholic beverages are currently housed in Amalgamated Beverages Industries, a division of SABMiller.

Cosatu has added its voice on the matter, reiterating Fawu’s concerns about job losses.

Spokesman Sizwe Pamla said the federation was also concerned about the impact of the merger on local industrial capacity and value chains, saying the power of the merged entity could be detrimental to suppliers of apples, pears and other fruit in the Appletiser value chain and those of glass, tin, and other products in the Coca-Cola value chain.

Pamla said the Competition Tribunal should impose conditions to safeguard jobs or prohibit the merger.

“While the Competition Commission, in its investigation, identified job losses as a concern and suggested including a condition that caps the number of job losses, we do not believe this is sufficient. There should be a total ban on any job losses arising

from this merger,” he said. “This could destroy thousands of jobs on farms and in factories.”

http://www.iol.co.za/business/companies/fawu-sabmiller-merger-must-not-affect-jobs-2010783

Did Zuma stash secret funds to establish Amcu’s rival union?

Pieter-Louis Myburgh, City Press, 17 April 2016

A huge civil suit against President Jacob Zuma, three Cabinet members and the national police commissioner is giving renewed impetus to sensational allegations that senior government leaders and secret intelligence agents were involved in the creation of a new trade union that was apparently intended to lure mine workers, particularly in the platinum industry, away from the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu).

City Press sister newspaper Rapport reports that the allegations are being made in the High Court in Pretoria in a R120 million claim against Zuma, the ministers of state security, police and defence, and the country’s police chief.

The claim relates to, among other things, the financial affairs of the Workers Association Union (WAU), a new trade union that was established early in 2014 to thwart Amcu’s dramatic rise in the platinum sector in the aftermath of the Marikana massacre at the end of 2012.

This was at the expense of the pro-ANC National Union of Mineworkers (NUM), which lost thousands of members to Amcu.

The aggrieved party, Thebe Maswabi, a former Amcu member, who was initially part of a group of so-called Amcu rebels who, in 2013, made allegations of corruption against Amcu president Joseph Mathunjwa, said he later formed the WAU on the instructions of Zuma, and received large amounts of cash from intelligence agents to pay for, among other things, the new union’s offices and staff salaries.

The WAU’s money apparently began to dry up after the union failed to lure significant support away from Amcu. This meant Maswabi alone was responsible for the mountain of debt that the union owed creditors, he said.

According to court papers, Zuma and the other defendants last month indicated they would oppose the claim.

A notice in the Government Gazette shows the WAU was registered on February 24 2014.

Bongani Majola, Zuma’s spokesperson, said the matter was sub judice and that it would run its course “in terms of the rules of the court”.

Brian Dube, State Security Minister David Mahlobo’s spokesperson, declined to answer questions about whether Mahlobo had had any contact with Maswabi.

Siphiwe Dlamini, Defence Minister Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula’s spokesperson, said: “Seeing that the matter is now following the court processes, it would be inappropriate to comment before that process has been concluded.”

http://city-press.news24.com/News/did-zuma-stash-secret-funds-to-establish-amcus-rival-union-20160416

NUM welcomes gazetted mining charter

eNCA/ANA, 17 April 2016

JOHANNESBURG - The National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) on Sunday welcomed the gazetted reviewed Broad-based Black Economic Empowerment Charter for the South African mining and minerals industry by Mineral Resources Minister Mosebenzi Zwane.

This was in line with section 100 of the Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development Act (MPRDA), the NUM said in a statement.

This “puts the industry well on time” to achieve its alignment process with the Broad-based Black Economic Empowerment Act and the trade and industry department (dti) codes of good practice as per the minister of trade and industry exemption gazetted in 2015.

“The NUM national office bearers will be undertaking to engage minister Zwane and the acting director general Mr Msiza during the prescribed 30 days consultation period and hoping all stakeholders will embrace this positive development.

“We reiterate our call on the implementation of corrective actions in line with MPRDA on all mining right holders who have failed to comply with the current mining charter targets and this draft should pave [the] way for the withdrawal of all court processes by various parties including the Chamber of Mines,” the NUM said.

The NUM would study the draft mining charter and prepare a substantial contribution that would be submitted to the mineral resources department within the prescribed period, “with the hope of ensuring the workers benefit through employee share ownership schemes, human resources development, home ownership, and employment equity, among other elements”, the NUM said.

https://www.enca.com/money/num-welcomes-gazetted-mining-charter

South Africa

Poor education traps black youth in poverty

Carol Paton, Business Day, 19 April 2016

TWO sets of data released on Monday provide alarming evidence that SA’s poor black youth are falling behind their peers in other population groups, and trends show there is little hope of this changing, despite government attempts at transformation.

Releasing Statistics SA’s (Stats SA’s) "social profile of youth" report, statistician-general Pali Lehohla said that the findings indicated "a very difficult future", and that SA remained stuck in its apartheid past, unable to overcome its legacy issues.

The report strips away the myth that the country is making progress through higher matric pass rates and higher numbers of university admissions.

Youth unemployment — among people 15 to 34 years old — remains stubbornly high at 39.5%, an increase on five years ago at 34.2%. While education remains the key pathway out of unemployment — 57% of unemployed do not have matric — black youth have been less able than other groups to translate educational opportunities into skilled jobs.

Compared to 1994, a greater percentage of white, coloured and Indian youth have made it into skilled work as managers, professionals or technicians. But among black youth, the percentage of those in skilled jobs was almost static over 20 years and even declined. So, in the age group of 25-34, there was a 2% decline in the proportion of those in skilled jobs, and among those aged 15-24, the needle hardly moved from about 9% to 10%.

The implication of this, Mr Lehohla said, "is that the parents are better equipped than their children. And when this happens, you don’t have a future."

One explanation for this, Mr Lehohla said, was that while the number of enrolments of black students at university had increased considerably, the completion rate of black students was far lower as a proportion of enrolment than it was even in 1994. Another was the closure of teacher training colleges and nursing colleges that were institutions that had catered more for black students than any other group.

Stark data on educational achievement was also released on Monday by Minister of Basic Education Angie Motshekga in response to a question by Democratic Alliance MP Gavin Davis.

Ms Motshekga said educational attainment in SA’s poorest schools is falling, while in its richest schools, it is consistently high. In 2013, the matric pass rate in quintile 1 schools — schools in the poorest areas — was 70.3%. In 2014, this dropped to 67.5%, and last year, to 61.6%. In contrast, in quintile 5 schools — SA’s richest

public schools, mostly in the former white suburbs — achieved a 91.9% matric pass rate in 2013; a 90.2% pass rate in 2014; and a 90.8% pass rate last year.

The youth report also illustrates a bigger developmental issue for policy makers: by failing to educate its youthful population — known by demographers as the youth bulge — SA has little hope of realising a "demographic dividend," which was seen by policy makers as an important factor in SA’s favour.

Some societies — such as the US and Europe during the post Second World War "baby boom" — were able to turn a growing population to advantage when a growing number of people entered the workforce relative to the number of dependants.

In its 2015 report on SA, the World Bank said SA’s potential to reap the demographic dividend was one of the few silver linings in an otherwise bleak economic climate. But significantly, says the Stats SA report, youth have declined slightly as a share of the population, from 36.8% in 2009 to 36.5%, indicating that the youth bulge is coming to an end. SA’s fertility rate at 2.5 children per woman is now close to replacement levels of 2.1%.

"If we are so close to replacement and the proportion of youth is falling, and we have persistently high youth unemployment, then we have a cocktail for disaster. We had the bulge, but the bulge was not translated into usable human capital. It suggests a very difficult future," Mr Lehohla said.

http://www.bdlive.co.za/national/education/2016/04/19/poor-education-traps-black-youth-in-poverty

The Great Reversal: StatSA claims black youth are less skilled than their parents

Marianne Merton, Daily Maverick, 19 April 2016

Bad news from Statistics South Africa for the new generation of black Africans, those aged between 25 and 34: according to new research, they are less skilled than their parents, and every other race and age group. It is also these youths who make up the bulk of South Africa’s unemployed.

The percentage of black African professional, managerial and technical workers aged 25 to 34 has dropped by 2% over the past 20 years, leaving that generation less skilled than previous ones – and less skilled than every other race and age group, according to Statistics South Africa. “When parents are better equipped than the children, it’s a sign of regression,” said Statistician-General Pali Lehohla at Monday’s release of ‘The Social Profile of Youth, 2009 – 2014’, the first in a series on vulnerable groups.

The Statistics South Africa research paints a bleak picture of failing policy interventions, particularly in education and youth employment. And this is not taking into consideration additional dynamics such as the research showing a stark decline in bachelor degree completion rates among black African and coloured students since the mid-1990s. In addition, Lehohla added, it remains twice as difficult for a black African and coloured graduate to secure a job than their colleagues graduating from the same university.

Jobs are linked to education levels, and little has changed since 2009. Those with not even a matric are most likely to remain unemployed – consistently at 57% in the five-year period under review – while those with matric recorded unchanged unemployment levels of 38%. This dropped to 1% among graduates in the period from 2009 to 2014, while those with other tertiary education other than university degrees dropped to 4% in 2014, slightly down from 5% in 2009.

The government touts an increase of numbers not only in higher education – about 800,000 matrics wrote the 2015 exam, although education experts and activists have for years cautioned that only half of those who start in Grade 1 complete Grade 12 – and as a percentage in various public work programmes. But the devil lies in the detail of proportionality. The numbers may well be up, but the proportion in relation to the country’s youth cohort remains the same. Thus there has been no real, systemic change.

“Education is the solution to the problem. We are not increasing the proportion of people in education,” said Lehohla. Describing this situation as “a cocktail of disaster” he pointed out that South Africa’s youth bulge is not translating into a gain of social and human capital. “It suggests a very difficult future.”

Young people aged 15 to 34 continue to make up the bulk of the unemployed: two thirds, or 5-million, on the strict definition of being able, willing and actively seeking work, but not having a job. This rises to 75% on the expanded definition, which includes those too discouraged to try to find work alongside those studying or doing unpaid work in the home like caring for the elderly or children.

In the economically active 25 to 34 age group, unemployment has remained almost constant between 2009 and 2014, dropping a mere 0.6% to 40.4% in 2014 from 41% five years earlier. Enterpreneurism, often touted as the way to employment, has dropped among youths on average by 2.6%, but more notably among women – 6.2%, in the same period.

Although overall, youths living in poverty declined in all nine provinces, in 2014 a household with at least one youth was more likely to experience hunger than a household without. And households with youths in the Northern Cape and Eastern Cape saw the biggest increase of hunger of 9.6% and 5.9% respectively. With the exception of KwaZulu-Natal and the Eastern and Northern Cape, the percentages of youth-headed households declined somewhat. Nationally the drop was just over 1%.

Housing and related costs of water, electricity, gas and other fuels remain the largest household expenditure at 25.4% for the 25 to 34 age group, followed by transport (19.8%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (14.2%), with education in fifth place at 1.9%. For those aged 15 to 24 the same ranking applies, although 6.1% is spent on education.

While the overwhelming majority of youth in Gauteng (88.3%,), KwaZulu-Natal (88.4%) and the Western Cape (91.3%) stay put in their home province, youths are migrating away from Limpopo, Northern Cape and Eastern Cape, which lost the most youths, or 367,800 in 2011.

While the Western Cape received youths from the Northern and Eastern Cape, Gauteng was the preferred destination for youths from Limpopo as well as Mpumalanga and the Free State. Statistics South Africa says the decision to migrate was related to important life transitions such as higher education, work or marriage, but additionally because Eastern Cape and Limpopo are “perceived to be lacking in terms of affording their youth better socio-economic conditions”.

Lehohla said the data on the social profile of youth raised complex issues and highlighted that existing systems and instruments are not focused. There is a clear need to change the overall storyline. But that’s a job for the policy-makers and politicians, said Lehohla: “I’m not in a policy space. I’m just a ruler… in terms of (providing) measurements.”

http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-04-18-the-great-reversal-stats-sa-claims-black-youth-are-less-skilled-than-their-parents/#.VxXmC03lrIU

Tripartite Alliance differences laid bare

Mayibongwe Maqhina, Daily News, 18 April 2016

Durban - The difference of opinion in the Tripartite Alliance over religious leaders’ calls for President Jacob Zuma to resign – following the Constitutional Court judgment – was laid bare when the SACP and Cosatu shared a stage in Durban on Sunday.

Discussing the calls, the leaders of the SACP and Cosatu openly differed on the subject while addressing shop stewards at City Hall.

SACP provincial secretary, Themba Mthembu, said the religious leaders should be listened to. “We must not attack the religious leaders. We should open our eyes,” he said.

But, Cosatu president Sdumo Dlamini warned that the clergy needed to tread carefully on political matters.

“They should pray for us, guide us and provide leadership. They should not enter -politics. Once that happens, there will be an equal response,” Dlamini said.

Their comments come almost a week after the ANC Women’s League provincial treasurer, Barbara Thompson, warned the route being taken by religious leaders was “dangerous”.

Thompson said the religious leaders were compromising their religion and acted against the ethos of forgiveness.

Speaking to the media after Sunday's meeting, Mthembu said there was a need to listen to civil society as the ANC had promised to engage its branches and other sectors of society.

“We are saying we must not open other battle fronts. The ones we have is enough. We need to bring all sectors to a common understanding. Opposing each other will not help,” he insisted.

Earlier, Mthembu likened what had befallen the ANC to the repeat of an era when SACP and Umkhonto we Sizwe leader, Chris Hani, wrote a memorandum on state of affairs in the ANC in exile, only to be sentenced to death – and saved by then ANC president Oliver Tambo.

“Right now, whether you like it or not, we are a nation in distress. We need a Hani to raise issues that happen in the movement.

“We need Oliver Tambo to address those issues,” he said, in apparent reference to the Morogoro conference in April 1969 that tackled internal issues raised by Hani and others at the time.

Mthembu also said the big problem facing the ANC-led movement was the “demise of democracy”.

“There is only one tool as the working class we can use: the power of democracy.”

However, Mthembu said the SACP had decided to leave it up to the ANC to deal with the issues arising from the Constitutional Court.In defence of Chief Justice Mogoeng Mogoeng, Mthembu also warned against use of numbers in order to trample on ethics and morality.

He said the Gupta saga was part of a fight between established and emerging -capitalists over a turf. “We are not supposed to be close to them. These are our enemies. They are equally dangerous and reinforce each other against the working class.”

Dlamini said those calling for removal of Zuma were calling for the fall of the ANC.

He was convinced the jury was out on the ANC and the calls by civil society should be watched.

“The plethora of calls by individuals and organisations literally say ANC must take a rope and hang itself on the tree and kill itself.

“We will not support any call for suicide,” Dlamini said.

http://www.iol.co.za/dailynews/news/tripartite-alliance-differences-laid-bare-2010849

Slain ANC councillor strove for peace at violence-wracked Glebelands Hostel

Matthew Savides, Sunday Times, 17 April 2016

lain ANC councillor Zodwa Sibiya was desperate to bring about peace at Durban's Glebelands hostel‚ but instead she would be murdered in her room at the same facility she was trying to change.

Sibiya‚ 47‚ was shot and killed at the hostel‚ where she lived‚ on Saturday night. She is the 62nd person to be murdered at the notoriously violent hostel. Sibiya was a proportional representation councillor in the eThekwini municipality‚ and was known for her involvement in trying to deal with the problems plaguing the Glebelands area.

The ANC described her murder as "the worst and most callous act of cowardice"‚ and called for swift police intervention.

"Comrade Sibiya was a true servant of the people‚ who had absolute hatred of corrupt practices in (the) hostel. We have lost our cadre who knew nothing in her life besides serving our community. She served our revolutionary movement with due commitment and dedication‚" said the party's KZN secretary‚ Super Zuma.

He added that there were concerns about violence aimed at the party's leadership.

"We are much worried about what seems to be a developing trend within the eThekwini region‚ where leadership is seen as an easy target for assassination‚” he said.

http://www.timeslive.co.za/sundaytimes/stnews/2016/04/17/Slain-ANC-councillor-strove-for-peace-at-violence-wracked-Glebelands-Hostel

Comment

Threat of pro-Zuma breakaway emerges as reality bites ANC at manifesto launch

Ranjeni Munusamy, Daily Maverick, 18 April 2016

It will be written off as a logistics cock-up. Transport hitches, miscommunication, bad service providers – there have been all sorts of excuses from the ANC for the poor showing in Nelson Mandela Bay. The bad turnout at the ANC’s manifesto rally provided a strong dose of reality, showing the level of discontent in the party. Still, the ANC cannot purge itself of its biggest liability. While it has been reported that a secret mission is under way to dislodge President Jacob Zuma, there are also alleged threats of a mass breakaway should the ANC attempt to get rid of its leader.

If the ANC had to make a list of pros and cons for removing President Jacob Zuma from office, they would probably find more reasons not to do so, among them removing two consecutively elected presidents in a row and succumbing to the pressure of the opposition.

Of course, if the rest of society had to do the same, there would be no cons. There would just be the big plus of ridding South Africa of the worst leader it could possibly have – someone who breached the Constitution and who plunged the country into economic peril by firing a finance minister who was trying to protect the integrity of the state.

But the ANC has other considerations. The ANC’s biggest fear is losing power and dominance. It believes it can keep its majority control of the country by closing ranks and keeping all its factions and interest groups under its umbrella, even if they are at war with each other over power and resources. If the ANC loses its dominance, its power is diminished and its sphere of influence is reduced. That will mean far fewer people in its ranks will get to serve in high-flying positions in the state and Parliament, and it will also lose absolute control of the levers of state.

It is the understanding of this fear that has apparently motivated some of Zuma’s most ardent supporters to threaten that if the president is dislodged from his position before his term of office ends, they would lead a breakaway from the ANC. On the face of it this prospect sounds illogical. Why would the people in the pound seats surrender the ANC brand to their opponents in the party and go the way of the Congress of the People and the Economic Freedom Fighters to form a new breakaway party?

It all sounded like an unrealistic prospect until it became apparent that such a party would be backed financially by the Gupta family. Suddenly it is not so improbable. If the president were to be removed from his position, and the taps at national level closed off, the new party would then fight for control of the provinces where Zuma’s allies hold sway and control resources.

It is one thing to risk losing votes because of he reputational damage Zuma has caused to the ANC; it is a whole other matter to have the ANC split, lose its majority at national level and lose control of several provinces. Although the strength of the “premier league” faction in the ANC is untested, they are currently in control of the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, North West and Mpumalanga. Combined with the ANC

Youth League and ANC Women’s League, this faction could do serious damage to the ANC if the party decided to bite the bullet and remove Zuma.

So while there might be informal discussions about an exit plan for Zuma after the August local government elections, as reported in the Sunday Times, there are inherent dangers if these talks continue. The ANC cannot have these discussions openly as Zuma and his allies sit on every national structure in the party. Should those in the party advocating for a post-election exit want to eventually broach the subject, they risk being shunned and marginalised.

But even if this plan gains traction, the Zuma-Gupta-premier league network will never simply surrender. They will fight the plan and continue their mission to have a candidate of their choice appointed as Zuma’s successor. But if Zuma is kicked out prematurely and someone else is appointed to serve out the rest of the term, the faction backing Zuma will be disorientated and could lose their grip of sections of the state. The only way for them to fight back for control of the state might be from outside the ANC.

Zuma might give the impression that he would be willing to do what’s best for the ANC and that he will remain devoted to the organisation even if he is removed as its leader or recalled as state president. But behind the scenes, there would be a retaliation plan being hatched should such a prospect arise.

The Gupta family has no loyalty to the ANC even though some members of the family hold membership cards. It has been disclosed previously that they provided funding to the Democratic Alliance. Their loyalty and friendship seems woven to Zuma, his family and his allies, and they will continue to fund whoever serves them politically.

For now it seems the ANC is stuck with the decisions it has made. There will be no further discussion about Zuma’s future and his “apology” for the Nkandla confusion should be accepted and explained to ANC structures. Focus must remain on the local government election campaign for which the ANC must project a united front and parade its leaders on the ground the way it always does.

The ANC thought that was a workable plan – until it got to Nelson Mandela Bay.

The standard formula of deploying the national executive committee and top six officials to build momentum and excitement ahead of a big rally did not work so well. People appear to be fed up with the bad leadership and corruption that have plagued the region and were not interested in more empty promises from a compromised national leadership. Some leaders, like ANC Women’s League president and Social Development Minister Bathabile Dlamini, experienced people’s anger first hand – and it seemed a bitter pill to swallow.

The normal pulse that defines big ANC events seemed to be absent in the stadium. ANC rallies are normally a show of force and a demonstration of the love and loyalty

people have for the party. The abundance of empty seats emerged as the biggest talking point from the event. Many people who did make the journey to the stadium decided it was not worth their while to be there and left while Zuma was delivering his address.

The ANC top six officials, sitting on the main stage, looked distraught for most of the programme. There was no way for them to escape the consequences of their bad leadership and bad decisions as it was on display for the world to see.

In time to come, there will be many more indicators of the ANC’s failures and penalties for wanting to exist in splendid isolation from reality. When it comes to hard decisions, the threat of a pro-Zuma breakaway will seem more daunting than ridding the party and the country of its biggest liability. It will take a lot more than emptying stadiums for the ANC to confront its own folly.

http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-04-18-threat-of-pro-zuma-breakaway-emerges-as-reality-bites-anc-at-manifesto-launch/#.VxXnbE3lrIU

#ZExit: There must be 50 ways to lose your President

Stephen Grootes, Daily Maverick, 19 April 2016

Since the start of the year, the big political question has not been the local government elections, or what really happened at the Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium. The big political question is a simple: “Will President Jacob Zuma stay, or will he go?” Coming after the firing of Nhlanhla Nene, and then the Constitutional Court’s Nkandla ruling, it’s no surprise that there is more pressure on Zuma than ever. But those who think it’s easy to kick someone out are misguided. That said, there are several scenarios that could play out over the next few months.

At the moment the end of the Zuma era looks almost inevitable. Surely no one political figure can go through as many scandals as Zuma has, and survive? And yet, his most fanatical of supporters (well-known democrats like the ANC Women’s League, the ANC Youth League and their peace-loving, CIA-admiring friends at the Umkhonto we Sizwe Veterans Association) are certain that he will stay on.

This is of course the scariest scenario. If Zuma remains in charge, if he and the people around him are able to stay on in power and govern as they have been, after all of this – after the Gupta scandal, the probable reinstatement of corruption charges, the Nkandla ConCourt ruling – then surely those people will have the power to decide who will win the ANC’s 2017 leadership election.

In other words, if Zuma and his faction can survive all of the above, they will be able to possibly decide the direction South Africa will take even until 2029. And that could

mean then, that the patterns of governance, the mismanagement, the corruption, will just be entrenched. Something would have to break.

If you were not sober when you started reading this, you probably are now.

But that is only the beginning of our possibilities.

If we assume, for the sake of argument, that one of the issues that drives Zuma’s behaviour is the fear of jail, the fear that he could be prosecuted for the matters arising out of the conviction of Schabir Shaik, then we can presume that this can also be used as a carrot. So, perhaps, some sort of political deal could be struck where he is assured that he will not be prosecuted. In return, a move that could take all of the political heat off him would be to announce, publicly, that he is going to step down as State President after the ANC’s 2017 leadership election.

This would solve a number of problems. One of the reasons that Zuma seems safe from a recall at the moment is that he is leader of the ANC, and there is an ANC resolution that the president of the ANC should be president of the country. That means it could require a special conference to get him out, and if that were held, that could be the conference at which the ANC would split. (Such a conference could also take place only by the end of the year, which is an aeon in today’s politics – many things could fundamentally change by then, possibly to Zuma’s benefit). His announced pre-resignation could get around all of that, while setting a timetable for his exit as president. It would mollify his critics, and give everyone in the ANC time to manage it. It would also ensure that any fight among those who want to take over from him is contained in some way, in that it would have a specified end-date.

But Zuma’s problem is that he cannot trust anyone that the deal will stick. Liberia’s Charles Taylor went to Nigeria on the assurance that he would not be sent off to The Hague for commiting crimes against humanity. He is currently in jail. Zuma has the same problem. Even if Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma assumes the throne next year, it’s a brave man who would trust his freedom to his ex-wife. Especially as she has shown some Mbeki-ite tendencies in the past.

There are those, including Max du Preez, who think that some sort of legal solution exists to this problem. He believes that perhaps an act of Parliament that indemnifies a sitting president could be introduced, with the hope that that act would then be withdrawn when a new president is elected. But that seems impractical. First, the Constitution specifies that, “Everyone is equal before the law and has the right to equal protection and benefit of the law.” Any law that treats one person differently to everyone else would surely fall foul of that. And of course, it would be a vain hope that any sitting president would ever feel it was in their interests to repeal such an act.

But an option that could work is that of the presidential pardon. They do not appear to be reviewable – in other words, who the president pardons is pardoned, full stop. But there may be a complication in that Zuma has not been convicted of anything.

Perhaps a more likely scenario that could play out over the next two years is that Zuma is told by those forces ranged against him that he can stay on but he has to change how he governs. He essentially loses the power to make big decisions on his own, and by “consultation” the ANC will now really mean consultation. The problem with this is that we may never actually know that this has happened. That could end up sending conflicting signals. Zuma’s allies, including the increasingly nonsensical Women’s League, will claim that he has all the power, while his enemies will claim that he does not. It will also be very difficult to tell who made important decisions and why, which will make it harder to predict what will happen in the future. And of course, there would be constant tension between Zuma and Luthuli House.

That can hardly be the best option.

The option that many in the Gauteng ANC-supporting middle classes are hoping for, the exit of Zuma some time before the end of the year, seems to be receding. But, the local polls could provide a shock or two for the ANC, and end up forcing some kind of urgent action. It’s getting harder and harder for the party to justify itself on the campaign trail. Were leaders to start feeling that anger for themselves, were Bathabile Dlamini to be reduced to tears more often, perhaps people might start thinking about life after Zuma. And of course, a ruling that the NPA must reinstate the corruption charges emanating from the Shaik case would strengthen the case for action.

But probably more important is the process that seems to be under way in ANC branches. The Gauteng ANC is talking up its branch meetings, probably secure in the knowledge that ordinary members will back their play against Zuma. It’s surely impossible for Luthuli House to act against branches and regions and provinces that simply reflect the wishes of their members. To punish people for doing that is to provoke a split, all but inviting further punishment at the polls further down the line. It is possible, but probably unlikely for the moment, for this rebellion by branches to spread. Were that to happen, part of the party could become almost ungovernable for Zuma, which could lead to some kind of action against him.

No matter which scenario plays out, it’s clear that our politics is going to be fairly unstable for a while. In fact, probably until at least the end of next year. It is only then that we can hope to get any stability back into the system. However, after that, things could look a lot better, in that the ANC is surely going to get punished at the polls. And that would then strengthen the incentive for whoever takes over from Zuma to govern better and more responsibly, though that is not much of a difficult task right now.

Or, Just slip out the back, Jake.

http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2016-04-18-zexit-there-must-be-50-ways-to-lose-your-president/#.VxXmyU3lrIV

The right stuff: apply the laws of the land

Neels Blom, Business Day, 18 April 2016

NOW that the African National Congress (ANC) has shot itself in the foot and, apparently, will not stop shooting until all that remains of the so-called liberation movement is a smear of sleaze leading to kitsch palaces and worked-out coal mines, it is time for the collective to decide what to do next.

Extreme violence comes to mind, especially when the cost to the economy of the energy axis’s elaborate load-shedding hoax is contemplated, or when you consider how much paper and effort is wasted on final demand notes for e-toll payments, but we should probably dismiss that in the interests of decorum. Besides, someone always has to clean up the mess afterwards and that can be tedious. Instead, says the South African Public Service Union (Sapsu), citizens should engage in nonviolent civil disobedience until President Jacob Zuma, his Cabinet and members of Parliament resign.

Now there’s an idea, even if it is not exactly new. Sophocles, for his own safety, gave us the notionally fictional Antigone, who defied the monarch of Thebes so that she might do the right thing and, declaring that she understood the law, but that her actions insulted neither the gods nor justice, only the decree of an unjust man.

Rousing, isn’t it? Antigone inspired lots of people, as listed by Wikipedia to include Gandhi and the personal favourite of the member (of the Upper Jukskei Flyfishing Collective), Henry Thoreau. And it can be effective. Gandhi is now credited with decolonising India, and closer to home, the ANC’s defiance campaign and the 1956 women’s march in particular, marked the beginning of the end of apartheid.

Sapsu, a breakaway union from the Democratic Teachers’ Union and replete with licence since November last year, has grasped the moment and issued a press release to sundry neo-liberal media houses, and craftily ropes in one Prof Deon Rossouw, the CEO of EthicsSA.

In the main, the statement admonishes the collective to behave ethically, but also handily lists a progression of protests commensurate with the wrath of the disaffected.

It means we may skip the polite and respectful phases of debate and demonstration. We have been there and done that. The next step, says Prof Rossouw, is boycotting, which may be considered drastic and "a strong message", but considering the

wickedness visited upon the collective, it too is inadequate; it demands invective far stronger than namby-pamby prosody.

Ethically speaking that leaves us with civil disobedience, or as Gandhi would have it, civil resistance, although the nature of such a protest needs to be interrogated. The final and most drastic level of protest is civil disobedience but, says Prof Rossouw, "(we) need to be clear about what type of protest is appropriate, and what the consequences of that protest are. At all costs, we have to steer clear of attacking the foundations of our democracy by the way we protest. Unlike other forms of protest, civil disobedience is about changing the law, and to do that, it takes the grave step of breaking the law."

Right there is the problem with Sapsu’s proposal. Apartheid was propped up by unjust laws and it was just and ethical to break the law to see the end of that ideology, but the gangster state that is the making of the ANC is not propped up by law. The fiefdom created by President Jacob Zuma and the ANC is the consequence of the wilful and deliberate defiance of the just laws of the land. To remedy that, South Africans need not break the law or invoke the uncertain principles of civil disobedience. All we need to do is the right thing: apply the law.

• Blom is a freelance journalist. He likes to flyfish

http://www.bdlive.co.za/opinion/columnists/2016/04/18/on-the-water-the-right-stuff-apply-the-laws-of-the-land