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Chris West, Director, UK Climate Impacts Programme

UKCIP08 Scenarios, Climate Change Impacts in Scotland, and

Adapting to the Impacts

Sustainable Development Commission for Scotland,

29 October 2008, Edinburgh

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CCIRG91 CCIRG96 UKCIP98 UKCIP02 UKCIP08 UKCIPNext

Scenarios Background UK climate scenarios produced since 1991 UKCIP published climate scenarios in 1998 and 2002 Each became more detailed, building upon:

improved scientific knowledge & computing power stakeholder requirements

Each represented best science at that time

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Uses of Climate Models

Climate model

Predictions ProjectionsForecasts

Grounding in reality

Huge set of assumptions

Acknowledgement of uncertainties

Understanding

Testing against data

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Uses of Climate Models

Climate model

Predictions ProjectionsForecasts

Grounding in reality

Huge set of assumptions

Acknowledge all uncertainties

Understanding

Testing against data

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What Users wanted from UKCIP08

Improved consideration and quantification of associated uncertainties – probabilistic What users wanted in UKCIP08 information

Improved spatial and temporal detail

Improved accessibility (dedicated online user interface)

More information about climate change in the marine environment

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?

VERY UNLIKELY LIKELY VERY UNLIKELY

X

Some climate variable

Probability

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• 25km grid

• Pre-defined areas

•Administrative

•River basins

• Observed climate datasets including daily max and min temperature

• Weather Generator to provide statistical expressions of future daily conditions consistent with the climate projections

•More time periods

Greater spatial & temporal detail

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Components of UKCIP08

Probabilistic climate projections

Information on future climate, provided in probabilistic terms

Probabilistic climate projections

Information on future climate, provided in probabilistic terms

Historical climate information

Information on present UK climate and recent trends, based on observations

Historical climate information

Information on present UK climate and recent trends, based on observations

Marine projections

Information on modelled future changes below the surface of sea areas around UK

Marine projections

Information on modelled future changes below the surface of sea areas around UK

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UKCIP08 productsA set of high-level headline messages will give a national overview of the main changes described by UKCIP08

Reports including:• User guidance• Climate trends• Probabilistic changes of climate• Marine Projections• Summary Report• Pre-prepared maps and graphs

Individual maps, probabilistic plots (PDFs, CDFs), plume diagrams, etc

Customised data products such as GIS-format files and sampled projections to input into impact models

It will also provide access to an integrated Weather Generator

The UKCIP08 User Interface will allow users to create:

•

•

•

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Supporting the use of UKCIP08

Training

Have completed a series of awareness workshops; training material on our website

Post-launch training events – big programme of familiarisation and learning workshops and e-learning support – watch this space!

Worked examples

Set up using dummy data for now; currently being reviewed – will be updated once real data is available

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UKCIP and UKCIP08

UKCIP is the UK Climate Impacts Programme www.ukcip.org.uk

UKCIP08 are the climate scenarios, published by UKCIP

More information is available at UKCIP’s Scenarios Gateway www.ukcip08.net

UKCIP08 will be launched in the Spring

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Rainfall and rain days 1971-2000

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Trend in total rainfall 1961-2006

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Trend in rain days 1961-2006

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Mean temperature

1971-90 mean 1961-2000 rise

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Impacts in Scotland

• Not all negative – some opportunities

• Opportunities may need work to be realised

• Impacts being discovered now

• Persisting uncertainties

• Reactive adaptation pathways needed

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Climate Change

Human Beings

Mitigation

Adaptation

Causation

Impacts

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Climate change responses

Not alternatives!

Response

:

Mitigate Adapt

Resemble

s:

Public health Medical

treatment

Benefit: Global, deferred Local,

immediate

Concept: Easy Hard

Slope: Increases Eases

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Balanced responses

1. The climate change we expect in the next 30-40 years will be due to our past greenhouse gas emissions.

2. Climate change later this century is being determined by the emissions we allow now.

3. We need to alter our way of life so that we can both:

• adapt to the changes that are already in the climate system….

• limit our future greenhouse gas emissions.

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Need for a balance between….

Mitigation & Adaptation

Present vulnerability & Future impacts

Changes in extremes &Steady climate change

Climate information & System information

“predict, optimise, relax”

&“assess, hedge, review”

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Present Climate

• Are we well-adapted to the present?

• Is perfect adaptation possible? – desirable?

• Do we manage present climate risks adequately?

• Part of adapting to climate change is managing the extremes of the present climate

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Do we notice the weather?

Yes

Farmers

Sailors

Operators

No

Boards

Directors

Finance Officers

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“predict, optimise, relax” *

Focus on Climate Change – assumes “today” is OK

Led by physical science model developers

Uncertainty remains a barrier to decision-making

Climate remains a separate issue

Decision-makers will always need better data

* Thanks to Lenny Smith

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“assess, hedge, review” *

Focus on Climate Risks –assumes “today” needs

attention

Led by decision-makers

Assess and manage current risks, then turn to future

Uncertainty is made explicit and addressed

Climate easier to mainstream into everyday

Immediate benefits to “day job”* Thanks to Lenny Smith

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1. Include the hard to cost impacts of what you do to the environment in your plans

2. Be kind to the environment – you may need it one day

3. Address the needs of today while at the same time not compromising the needs of tomorrow

4. Keep on doing business despite the environment’s impacts on what you do

5. The environment, through climate change, has the power to shut you down – deal with it!

Sustainability

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Sustainable Adaptation

Don’t transfer risk to:

Others in society

The natural environment

The future

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Adaptation in Government

Research on Impacts and Adaptation is funded by Defra (CEOSA) on behalf of Devolved Administrations.

Defra’s new Adapting to Climate Change Programme (ACC) deals with policy – remit covers only England.

UKCIP budget comes from both these sources.

Some of CEOSA has moved to DECC, but domestic adaptation research will join ACC within Defra

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• PFI is intended to shift financial risk to private sector (better

at managing it?)

• PFI contracts will see significant climate change.

• PFI can be a mechanism for managing climate risk.

• BUT risks must be identified, assigned, and costed.

• Public sector failure? business opportunity?

Private Finance and Climate Risk

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www.ukcip.org.u

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