TYNDP assessment Findings for NW region

Resilience Denmark/Sweden, Luxembourg

Supply dependency South of France

Network adaptability no issues

Supply source diversification Denmark/Sweden

Projects resolving aforementioned issues

For Denmark/Sweden: solved by Project Ellund, see section 4.3.1 and 4.3.2

For Luxembourg: work in progress, see section 4.3.3

For South of France: work in progress, see section 4.3.4

In depth analysis of TYNDP issues

1

Resilience

2

Supply Source Dependency

3

Supply Source Diversification

4

Resilience Assessment Potential investment gaps Germany, Denmark (and Sweden)

TYNDP Project EllundCapacity extension from Germany to Denmark would solve this issueProjects were identified through an Open Season in 2009FID-project Step 1 increase capacity from Oct. 2014 at a level of 310,000 m³/hNon-FID project Step 2 increase capacity in 2016 at a level of 500,000 m³/h

Update GRIP 2013Step 2 is now also FID No investment gap

Chapter ‘In Depth Review of TYNDP Identified NW Issues’: Example

5

Procedures followed to define investment projects

Past and present projects (FID)

Possible future projects (non-FID)

Maps

Matrix

Explanation how the matrix works in conjunction with the appendix

Background to NWE Projects

6

Matrix – how it works

7

Step 1: look up the IP number on capacity map

Step 2: goto matrix and find IP number (ascending order)

Step 3: find TYNDP code(s) of project(s)

Step 4: with TYNDP code and country goto appendix (countries in alphabetical order, within country in alphabetical order of TYNDP code)

S&DDemand uncertainty

Energy efficiency measures taken in member states are part of the demand figures of the NW GRIP report

But major uncertainty in heating market is outside temperatures. Elasticity for domestic heating market on price is low.

Implementation of draft RCC feedback September 4th

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Matrix – how it works

9

Step 1: look up the IP number on capacity map

Step 2: goto matrix and find IP number (ascending order)

Step 3: find TYNDP code(s) of project(s)

Step 4: with TYNDP code and country goto appendix (countries in alphabetical order, within country in alphabetical order of TYNDP code)

TSOs are aware of TYNDP identified issues

Germany/Denmark/Sweden solved, RFO 2016

Vulnerable position of Sweden improved but not solved. Solutions identified but not decided

Luxembourg congestion identified but not solved

Price spread between PEG Nord and PEG South identified, solutions being analysed

Enduring importance of gas, but increasing import dependency

Depleting L-gas sources in Germany and the Netherlands trigger L-gas market conversion

Role of gas in power generation and increasing contribution of RES adds to the challenges in flexible gas supply and transmission

Further challenges to network development due to decreasing long term transmission capacity commitments

Conclusions

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NW GRIP 2013 Timeline - future

Publish report, start consultation phase

GRIP workshop ENTSOG

GRI NW presentation

End consultation phase

Review of feedback

ENTSOG discussions future GRIPs

New NW GRIP 2015

Nov 2013

26 Nov

28 Nov

1st Jan 2014

2014

2014

2015

Questions?

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