topographic map of the refuge marsh (figure provided by dr. e.a. meselhe based on usgs topography...
TRANSCRIPT
Recent LTL Excursions?? Extraordinary...??
W. WalkerTOC Workgroup August 18, 2009
? ?
“..substantial evidence that exceedance is due to error or
extraordinary natural phenomena…”
? ?
• Refuge hydrologic variables within range of data from previous sampling events (rainfall, stage, stage increase, flow, TP load) on a 30-day & 7-day basis
• Inflows & hydraulic gradients within ranges observed in previous excursions
• Antecedent hydrologic conditions of limited use for evaluating causal relationships because of the complexity and long time scales associated with loading, storage, recycling, and transport of P in the marsh.
August 2008 & September 2009 Sampling Events
Phosphorus Fluxes over Yearly Stage Cycle
Rising Tide Falling Tide
RainfallInflow Outflow
Uptake Recycle
Dryout Phase
Burial
Water Level
Water
Plants Soils
Water
Plants Soils
Water
Plants Soils
Highest Riskof Excursion
WWW TOC Presentation, Nov 2004
~ June 2009 Excursion
~ Nov 2008 Excursion
Restoration time scale following reduction in external load ~3 years for P stored in water column & vegetation;
Longer if P is recycled from soils
Interior Marsh Water Quality, Stage, & Rainfall Sites
9 8 76
5
43
1615
14
1312
11
10
Rim Stage
Marsh Stage
LOX WQ Site
S362_T
LOX_N
1-8T
LOX_S
G310_T
G301_TG300_T
S10C_HS39_H
G338_T 1-9
1-8C1-7
G251_T
S39
S6
S5A
Rim Stage
Marsh Stage
Rainfall
7-Day Rainfall & Daily Stage, 2006-2009
7-Day Rainfall & Daily Stage Jan 2006 - June 2009 Vertical Line: Marsh GM > LT Level
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1/1/
2006
3/2/
2006
5/1/
2006
6/30
/200
6
8/29
/200
6
10/2
8/20
06
12/2
7/20
06
2/25
/200
7
4/26
/200
7
6/25
/200
7
8/24
/200
7
10/2
3/20
07
12/2
2/20
07
2/20
/200
8
4/20
/200
8
6/19
/200
8
8/18
/200
8
10/1
7/20
08
12/1
6/20
08
2/14
/200
9
4/15
/200
9
6/14
/200
9
Rain
inch
es
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Stag
e ft Average of Rain_7
Average of MarshAverage of Rim_Mean
Marsh = Sites 7 & 9 Rim = 1-8C, S362, G300, G301, G338, G310, G251
Nov 2008 June 2009
7-Day Inflow Volume & Daily Stage, 2006-2009
7-Day Rolling Average Inflow Volume & Stage Jan 2006 - June 2009 Vertical Line: Marsh GM > LT Level
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1/1/
2006
3/2/
2006
5/1/
2006
6/30
/200
6
8/29
/200
6
10/2
8/20
06
12/2
7/20
06
2/25
/200
7
4/26
/200
7
6/25
/200
7
8/24
/200
7
10/2
3/20
07
12/2
2/20
07
2/20
/200
8
4/20
/200
8
6/19
/200
8
8/18
/200
8
10/1
7/20
08
12/1
6/20
08
2/14
/200
9
4/15
/200
9
6/14
/200
9
Flow
kac
-ft
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Stag
e ft Average of Flow_7
Average of MarshAverage of Rim_Mean
Marsh = Sites 7 & 9 Rim = 1-8C, S362, G300, G301, G338, G310, G251
Nov 2008 June 2009
7-Day Inflow TP Load & Daily Stage, 2006-2009
Marsh = Sites 7 & 9 Rim = 1-8C, S362, G300, G301, G338, G310, G251
Nov 2008 June 2009
7-Day Rolling Average Inflow Volume & Stage Jan 2006 - June 2009 Vertical Line: Marsh GM > LT Level
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1/1/
2006
4/1/
2006
6/30
/200
6
9/28
/200
6
12/2
7/20
06
3/27
/200
7
6/25
/200
7
9/23
/200
7
12/2
2/20
07
3/21
/200
8
6/19
/200
8
9/17
/200
8
12/1
6/20
08
3/16
/200
9
6/14
/200
9
TP L
oad
kg
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Stag
e ft Average of Load_7
Average of MarshAverage of Rim_Mean
Load
Refuge Topography
E.A. Meselhe (2009) based on USGS topography data. Elevations in feet, NGVD29.
Hydraulic Gradients Between Rim Canal & Marsh SitesMay 2006- June 2009
Units: feet. Rim = Average of 1-8C, S362, G300, G301, G338, G310, G251
Mean Rim Stage - Marsh Stage at Various Sites Period: 200605-200906 Vertical Line: Marsh GM > LT Level
-2
-1
0
1
5/1/
2006
5/31
/200
66/
30/2
006
7/30
/200
68/
29/2
006
9/28
/200
610
/28/
2006
11/2
7/20
0612
/27/
2006
1/26
/200
72/
25/2
007
3/27
/200
74/
26/2
007
5/26
/200
76/
25/2
007
7/25
/200
78/
24/2
007
9/23
/200
710
/23/
2007
11/2
2/20
0712
/22/
2007
1/21
/200
82/
20/2
008
3/21
/200
84/
20/2
008
5/20
/200
86/
19/2
008
7/19
/200
88/
18/2
008
9/17
/200
810
/17/
2008
11/1
6/20
0812
/16/
2008
1/15
/200
92/
14/2
009
3/16
/200
94/
15/2
009
5/15
/200
96/
14/2
009
Average of Rim-Marsh_NAverage of Rim-Marsh_7Average of Rim-Marsh_9Average of Rim-Marsh_SAverage of Rim-Marsh_8T
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
6/29
/197
8
12/2
9/19
80
12/7
/199
9
11/6
/200
0
12/4
/200
1
11/5
/200
2
9/9/
2003
10/1
8/20
04
8/8/
2005
6/12
/200
6
7/9/
2007
5/14
/200
8
3/9/
2009
Antecedent Conditions for Each Sampling Event1978-1983 & 1999-2009
30-Day Rainfall (Inches) S5A+S6+S139
Nov 2008
June 2009
1978-1983
Marsh P > Long-Term LevelMarsh P < Long-Term Level
30-Day Average Marsh Stage ft 1-7 & 1-9
30-Day Average Rim Canal Stage ft
30-Day Increase in Marsh Stage inches 1-7 + 1-9
30-Day Increase in Rim Canal Stage ft
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
30-Day Rainfall inches S5A, S6, S139
30-Day Inflow Volume kac-ft
30-Day Inflow Load mt
30-Day Inflow Conc ppb
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
30-Day Antecedent Conditions for Each Sampling Event, 1978-1983 & 1999-2009Rainfall, Inflow Volume, TP Load, TP Conc, Marsh & Rim Stage, Increase in Marsh & Rim Stage
Nov 2008
June 2009
1978 - 1983
Marsh P > Long-Term LevelMarsh P < Long-Term Level
7-Day Rainfall inches S5A, S6, S139
7-Day Inflow Volume kac-ft
7-Day Inflow Load mt
7-Day Inflow Conc ppb
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
7-Day Average Marsh Stage ft 1-7 & 1-9
7-Day Average Rim Canal Stage ft
7-Day Increase in Marsh Stage ft 1-7 + 1-9
7-Day Increase in Rim Canal Stage ft
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
17.5
18
18.5
7-Day Antecedent Conditions for Each Sampling Event, 1978-1983 & 1999-2009Rainfall, Inflow Volume, TP Load, TP Conc, Marsh & Rim Stage, Increase in Marsh & Rim Stage
Nov 2008
June 2009
1978 - 1983
Marsh P > Long-Term LevelMarsh P < Long-Term Level
30-Day Increase in Stage vs. Rainfall
Marsh Stage = Sites 7 & 9, Rainfall = Mean ( S5 + S6 + S39 ); Monthly Sampling Events, 1999-2009
Greater risk of Marsh TP > LTL following heavy rainfall & rising stage in periods with positive net inflow vs. periods with net outflow.
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
30 Day Rainfall inches
30-D
ay S
tage
Incr
ease
ft
Marsh GM < LTLGM > LTLNov-08Jun-0912 in = 1 ft~Fit
Offset ~ Evapotranspiration, Seepage
Net Inflow - Outflow
12 in = 1 foot
• Given long time scales of P storage & recycling, causal factors & progress are best evaluated by tracking long-term trends in the marsh following long-term reductions in external loads.
• Indications of long-term improvement in marsh conditions:– Decreasing frequency of marsh GM > LTL.– Decreasing trends in TP concentrations at some sites– Effects of reduced loading confounded with drought
• Indications that CD objectives have not yet been achieved:– Exceedance of LTLs for Interior Marsh– Interior GM > long-term objective (7 ppb) in each Water
Year (2000-2009).– Exterior Marsh not restored
Long-Term Perspective
Trends in Rainfall & Refuge Inflows, WY 1996-2009
Treated & Untreated TP Loads mt/yr
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sum of Lin_UntreatedSum of Lin_Treated
Treated & Untreated Infows kac-ft/yr
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Sum of Qin_UntreatedSum of Qin_Treated
Inflow TP Conc. ppb
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Treated & Untreated TP Loads mt/yr
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Treated & Untreated Infows kac-ft/yr
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Refuge Mean Rainfall inches/yr
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10-Year Trend in Marsh Geometric Mean TP vs. Consent Decree Goal ( < 7 ppb )
Consistent with Achieving Long-Term Levels
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Geo
met
ric
Mea
n pp
b
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
TP L
oad
mt
LoadGM7 ppb
Trends in Marsh Total P & Conductivity, WY 2000-2009
Monthly Flows & TP Concentrations – STA 1E Inflows & OutflowsMay 2001 – June 2009
Site = S319, Var = TP
1
10
100
100020
0005
2002
05
2004
05
2006
05
2008
05
Conc
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Mea
n Fl
ow (c
fs)
Site = S361, Var = TP
1
10
100
1000
2000
05
2002
05
2004
05
2006
05
2008
05
Conc
051015202530354045
Mea
n Fl
ow (c
fs)
Site = G311, Var = TP
1
10
100
1000
2000
05
2002
05
2004
05
2006
05
2008
05
Conc
050100150200250300350400450
Mea
n Fl
ow (c
fs)
Site = S362, Var = TP
1
10
100
1000
2000
05
2002
05
2004
05
2006
05
2008
05
Conc
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Mea
n Fl
ow (c
fs)
Inflows
Outflow
Inflow
Monthly Flows & TP Concentrations – STA 1W Inflows & OutflowsMay 2001 – June 2009
Site = S5A_P, Var = TP
1
10
100
100020
0005
2002
05
2004
05
2006
05
2008
05
Conc
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Mea
n Fl
ow (c
fs)
Site = G251, Var = TP
1
10
100
1000
2000
05
2002
05
2004
05
2006
05
2008
05
Conc
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Mea
n Fl
ow (c
fs)
Site = G302, Var = TP
1
10
100
1000
2000
05
2002
05
2004
05
2006
05
2008
05
Conc
0200400600800100012001400160018002000
Mea
n Fl
ow (c
fs)
Site = G310, Var = TP
1
10
100
1000
2000
05
2002
05
2004
05
2006
05
2008
05
Conc
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Mea
n Fl
ow (c
fs)
Inflows Outflows
Trends in Yearly Flow and TP Concentration at S5A Pump Station & Inflow to STA1W
Site = S5A_P, Var = TP
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Conc
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Flow
(kac
-ft)
Site = G302, Var = TP
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Conc
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Flow
(kac
-ft)
WY 2010 data for May-June Only
Design Assumption for STA1W Inflow TP Conc, EAA Regional Feasibility Study ~ 160 ppb
12-Month Rolling STA 1W Inflow TP Loadvs. Existing Operational Envelope
April 2000 – June 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000
04
2000
10
2001
04
2001
10
2002
04
2002
10
2003
04
2003
10
2004
04
2004
10
2005
04
2005
10
2006
04
2006
10
2007
04
2007
10
2008
04
2008
10
2009
04
TP L
oad
mt/
yr 36-Year Maximum
Mean
Deja Vous?
• Continue tracking compliance & trends in marsh• Focus on load reduction measures• Recent increases in STA outflow concentrations may
cause reversal of favorable marsh trends:– Overloading of both STA’s relative to existing &
future operational envelopes– Problems with depths & vegetation in STA-1E
• Re-evaluate proposed remedy (EAARFS):– Increasing trends in S5A TP Concs (200-250 ppb vs.
EAARFS assumed 160 ppb)– Predicted pulsed inflows to STA-1W - risk of bypass
& P spikes to marsh.– Plans will not meet QBEL (max yearly < 17 ppb)
required to restore exterior marsh– Risk to Refuge water supply
Recommendations