Impacts of the economic crisis: experience from rapid, qualitative assessments

Carrie Turk, World Bank 2010

Motivation Rapid generation of information on

impacts on specific groups Complement to quantitative

exercises that were underway Initially conceived as one-off

exercises (then changed) Originally intended to provide info

ahead of G-20 (now responding to demand from regions)

Implementation so far

Diversity in timing, frequency, scope, scale and cost($5,000-$40,000 per round)

Diversity in internal and external partners

Diversity in funding arrangements

Diversity in audience

research rounds so far

research rounds by end of FY

Azerbaijan 0 1Cambodia 4 4CAR 1 2Ghana 1 3Kazakhstan 0 2Lao 2 3Mongolia 2 4Philippines 1 3Romania 2 2Senegal 1 2Serbia 1 1Thailand 2 3Turkey 1 1Ukraine 1 3Vietnam 1 3

20 37

Similarities in approach

Focus group discussions & in-depth interviews

Participatory techniques Local research partners Emphasis on rapid results, not polished

product Returning to same/similar groups Findings illustrative & indicative, not

representative As such, most useful when supplemented

with other data

Example of outputs

Grades Roma sett lements, Belgrade, urban

Integrated Roma, rural, Jaša Tomić and Batočina

Cardboard settlement, urban, Kragujevac

Roma IDPs, integrated and collective centers, Bujanovac

Total

1 – much worse 2 22 8 16 48

2 13 2 15

3 1 1

4

5 – much better

Paid work Unpaid work

Who is doing more (and what)? Who is doing more (and what)?

Who is doing less (and what)? Who is doing less (and what)?

Findings highly context specific, but some general themes

A mix of vulnerabilities and resilience is evident in coping strategies, depending on household situation

EVIDENCE OF RESILIENCE Return to

education/training Living off savings Adapting business

strategies Expansion of income

generating activities Constrain

consumption of luxuries

Extending working hours

EVIDENCE OF VULNERABILITY

Cutting back basic consumption

Sale of assets Accumulation of

unserviceable debt School dropouts and child

labour Forgoing health care Some shifts into high-risk

income generating activities

Forgoing health expenditures

Contrary to ex ante hypotheses, the poor have been affected

FIRST ROUND IMPACTSSECOND ROUND IMPACTS

Some have been so severely affected that participation in recovery will be difficult

Livelihoods are undermined and asset bases diminished by:

•Sales of land, livestock and housing

•Accumulation of unsustainable debt

•Foregone investments in human capital (nutritional intake and health seeking behaviour)

Sell all cashmere at low price

Diminished purchasing power of income from cashmere and meat

Non-crisis shocks –seasonal price

change, school fees

More animals sold, asset

base reduced

In a recovering economy….

Participant Amount of Debt

1 Borrow from two loan sharks with the total amount of 3,000 baht. Each day she would earn about 200 baht or less. She has to pay 50 baht for one loan and another 40 baht for another loan.

2 Used to have a lot of debt but asked his father to help pay off.3 Borrowed from three loan sharks: 7,000, 6,000, and 3,000 baht4 Borrowed from three loan sharks: 6,000, 4,000, and 3,000 baht. She has to pay

interest each day.5 No debt6 Borrowed from two loan sharks. Not the total amount has exceeded 50,000 baht.

7 Borrowed from so many sources. Cannot remember any more, but think that the amount should be around 50,000 baht now.

8 An older man of 72 years old. Borrowed for the first time in this life for 6,500 baht.

9 No debt

Price shocks remain dominant sources of stress

BOTH FALLING PRICES… … AND RISING PRICES

Mutual support and social networks extremely important

often the only provider of assistance in the face of severe deprivation

many, many examples: loans, gifts, funeral groups, faith-based groups, phone-pooling, taxi-pooling, communal cooking, security, job search etc etc

Very little evidence of outreach of formal social assistance

Range of non-material impacts is evident

Crime and violence: high levels of brutality in some places

Stress and tension in the household Tension between groups Drugs and alcohol Delinquency and gang activity,

frustration among the youth

Gender impacts: a nuanced story

Reflections on methods Tailoring to country contexts vs

standardised methodology Findings date quickly – repeated rounds

analytically easier with certain techniques Hands-on management generally needed

for quality control Benefits of working alongside quantitative

data collection Focus on crisis may miss the point in

some countries – purposive sampling may overstate impacts