应用 precis 生成用户友好型气候情景数据 generating user-friendly climate scenarios...
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应用 PRECIS 生成用户友好型气候情景数据 Generating User-friendly Climate Scenarios with PRECIS. Yinlong XU (许 吟隆)中国农业科学院 Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDA), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
应用应用 PRECISPRECIS 生成用户友好型气候情景数据生成用户友好型气候情景数据Generating User-friendly Climate ScenGenerating User-friendly Climate Scen
arios with PRECISarios with PRECIS
Yinlong XU Yinlong XU (许 吟隆)中国农业科学院(许 吟隆)中国农业科学院Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IEDInstitute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture (IED
A), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)A), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS)Beijing, ChinaBeijing, China
Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel & Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel & Fax: +86 10 8210 6012 E-mail: E-mail: [email protected]@ami.ac.cn
3-5 March, 2010
提 纲 提 纲 OutlineOutline
工具和方法 工具和方法 Model and MethodologyModel and Methodology 气候变化情景结果分析 气候变化情景结果分析 Some Analysed ResuSome Analysed Resu
lts on Climate Change Scenarioslts on Climate Change Scenarios 情景数据的订正 情景数据的订正 Correction of Climate ScenCorrection of Climate Scen
arios outputsarios outputs 气候情景的验证和应用 气候情景的验证和应用 Validation of the CorrValidation of the Corr
ected Climate Scenariosected Climate Scenarios 应用举例 应用举例 Examples of ApplicationsExamples of Applications 存在问题及未来工作展望 存在问题及未来工作展望 Problems and ProsProblems and Pros
pects for Future Workpects for Future Work
降尺度分析示意图降尺度分析示意图 /Downscaling/Downscaling
GCMs
Horizontal resolution:
hundreds km
ImpactsModels
Downscaling
Localdetails
A demo for RCM downscalingA demo for RCM downscalingHadAM3H
PRECIS
降尺度分析示意图 A demo for RCM downscaling
PRECISPRECIS 模型模型 /What is PRECIS?/What is PRECIS? PRECIS—Providing Regional Climates for ImpacPRECIS—Providing Regional Climates for Impac
ts Studiests Studies Purpose 1: to develop the regional-level SRES clPurpose 1: to develop the regional-level SRES cl
imate scenarios over the worldimate scenarios over the world Purpose 2: to provide the datasets for the impacPurpose 2: to provide the datasets for the impac
ts assessments of climate change at the regionats assessments of climate change at the regional-levell-level
目的一、发展区域水平的、高分辨目的一、发展区域水平的、高分辨 率的率的 SRESSRES 气候情景气候情景 目的二、为评价模型提供高分辨率目的二、为评价模型提供高分辨率 的的 SRESSRES 气候情景气候情景
运行界面 /PRECIS Interface
The climate change scThe climate change scenarios in China are enarios in China are developed based on Sdeveloped based on SRES socio-economic RES socio-economic assumptions of SRESassumptions of SRES
SRES: IPCC 2000, Special Report on Emission ScenariosIPCC 在 2000 年出版排放情景特别报告( Special Report for Emission Scenarios )。 SRES 由四个情景系列( family )、六个情景组( group )、总共 40 个情景( scenario )组成。
PRECISPRECIS 区域区域 /Domain of PRECIS/Domain of PRECIS
PRECIS PRECIS 作业现状作业现状 /PRECIS Job Status/PRECIS Job Status NCEP re-analysis data:NCEP re-analysis data: 1979-20031979-2003 ECMWF re-analysis data:ECMWF re-analysis data: 1957-20011957-2001 ECMWF re-analysis data:ECMWF re-analysis data: 1979-19931979-1993 HadCM3HadCM3 (英国)(英国) Baseline (1961-1990):Baseline (1961-1990): No1No1 No2 No3No2 No3 A2 (2071-2100):A2 (2071-2100): No1 No2 No3No1 No2 No3 B2 (2071-2100) :B2 (2071-2100) : No1No1 A1B (1961-2100):A1B (1961-2100): No1 No1 No2 No3No2 No3 ECHAM4ECHAM4 (德国)(德国) A2 (1961-2100):A2 (1961-2100): No1No1 B2 (1961-2100) :B2 (1961-2100) : No1No1
最高气温最高气温 /Maximum Temperature/Maximum Temperature—— 拉萨拉萨 /Lhasa/Lhasa 、成都、成都 /Chengdu/Chengdu
辐射辐射 Solar Radiation—Solar Radiation— 西安西安 /Xi’an/Xi’an 、郑州、郑州 /Zhengzho/Zhengzhouu
B2B2 情景下中国区域气候变化响应的统计分析情景下中国区域气候变化响应的统计分析—— 740740 个台站—最高个台站—最高 // 低气温低气温
Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario—Maximum/minimum temperatureB2 scenario—Maximum/minimum temperature
B2B2 情景下中国区域气候变化响应的统计分析情景下中国区域气候变化响应的统计分析—— 740740 个台站—降水个台站—降水
Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 Cliamte Change Responses over whole China under B2 scenario----precipitationscenario----precipitation
A2A2 情景下气候情景下气候变化的响应变化的响应 CliCliamte Change amte Change Responses ovResponses over whole China er whole China under A2 scenunder A2 scenario (2080s vsario (2080s vs
1961-1990)1961-1990)
Temperature precipitationTemperature precipitation
Annual AnnualAnnual Annual
Winter WinterWinter Winter
Summer SummerSummer Summer
Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1气候极端事件的指标—之一气候极端事件的指标—之一
CriteriaCriteria DefinitionDefinition
HDHD Daily maximum temperature > 35 ℃Daily maximum temperature > 35 ℃
FD FD Daily minimum temperature <0 ℃Daily minimum temperature <0 ℃
WDWD
the number consecutive days with daily the number consecutive days with daily precipitation > 1mm precipitation > 1mm
R20mm R20mm
extreme precipitation events with daily extreme precipitation events with daily precipitation amounts greater than or equal to precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 20 mm 20 mm
CriteriaCriteria DefinitionDefinition
RX5day RX5day maximum precipitation amount for the 5-day interval maximum precipitation amount for the 5-day interval
SDII SDII
ratio of the daily precipitation amount for wet days (daily ratio of the daily precipitation amount for wet days (daily precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 1 mm) to the precipitation amounts greater than or equal to 1 mm) to the number of wet day number of wet day
CDD CDD
CWDCWD
Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the number Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the number consecutive days with daily precipitation below 1mm consecutive days with daily precipitation below 1mm
Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the number Consecutive dry days is calculated base on the number consecutive days with daily precipitation greater 1mmconsecutive days with daily precipitation greater 1mm
TX95 TX95
put daily maximum temperature of one year in a increase put daily maximum temperature of one year in a increase order, then TX95 is defined as the 95 percentage of the order, then TX95 is defined as the 95 percentage of the maximum temperature of this year maximum temperature of this year
Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1Extreme Climate Events Criteria-1气候极端事件的指标—之二气候极端事件的指标—之二
1 2 3-4 5-8 9-12 13-16 17-24 25-32 33-40 41-590
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Freq
uncy
Duration(days)
K
(a)
0
1
2 1 2 3-4 5-8 9-16 17-32 33-64 65-96 97-128129-299
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
Fre
quen
cy
Duration (days)(b)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
K
0 1 2 3-4 5-8 9-16 17-23 24-32 33-39 40-48-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
Fre
qu
en
cy
Duration(days)
(c)
mm
/day
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8-12 13-24 25-36
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Fre
quen
cy
Duration(days)
(d)
0
2
4
中国区域未来 A2 情景下,连续高温日数 (HD)(a) 、霜冻日数 (FD)(b) 、干期 (CDD)(c)和湿日数 (WD)(d) 持续期的频率变化分布。折线是每一个持续期对应的平均的最大 (a) 、最小温度 (b) 和降水量 (d) 的变化。 /Changes of Extreme Climate Events of HD, FD, CDD, and WD under A2 Scenario. 2080s vs 1961-1990
HD HD
FD
CDD WD
中国区域 2080s 年平均 1. R20mm, 2. 最大 5 日降水量 (RX5dayRX5day), 3. 简单日降水强度 (SSDII)DII) 相对于 1961 ~ 1990 年气候态的变化 ( 单位: %) a. A2 情景 , b. B2 情景
(b1)
(a1)
(b2)
(a2)
(b3)
(a3)
Changes of Extreme Climate Events of R20mm, RX5day under A2, B2 Scenarios2080s vs 1961-1990
(b1)
(a1)
(b2)
(a2)
(b3)
(a3)
中国区域 2080s 年平均 1. 最长连续干期 (CDD), 2. 最长连续湿期 (CWD), 3. 湿日数 (WD) 相对于 1961 ~ 1990 年气候态的变化 ( 单位: %) a. A2 情景 , b.
B2 情景
Changes of Extreme Climate Events of CDD, CWD, and WD under A2, B2 Scenarios2080s vs 1961-1990
高温热浪发生频率和持续时间高温热浪发生频率和持续时间Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990
Duration Frequent
高温热浪发生频率和持续时间高温热浪发生频率和持续时间Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990Changes of Heatwave, 2080s vs 1961-1990
数据应用数据应用 (( 一一 ))Application of the climate scenarios -1Application of the climate scenarios -1
observationcurrentsituation
futuresituation
assessment
BaselineFuture
observation impa
ct m
odel
baselinecurrentsituation
futuresituation
assessment
impa
ct m
odel
future
corrected
corrected
数据应用数据应用 (( 二二 ))Application of the climate scenarios-2Application of the climate scenarios-2
Baselineclimate scenario
数据订正方法数据订正方法How to correct the scenarios dataHow to correct the scenarios data
Observation
Baseline
Futureclimate scenario
comparison
数据订正结果比较数据订正结果比较Comparison of the corrected and non-corrected resultsComparison of the corrected and non-corrected results
图 3-1 1979 ~ 1993 年宁夏地区年极端温度值的年际变化 (a, b :年最高温度的极端高、低值; b, d :年最低温度的极端高、低值,单位:℃ )
(a)
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993(a)年份
(℃
)最
高温
度的
极端
高值
观测 模拟 订正
(b)
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993(a)年份
(℃
)最
高温
度的
极端
低值
观测 模拟 订正
(c)
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993(a)年份
(℃
)最
低温
度的
极端
高值
观测 模拟 订正
(d)
-24
-22
-20
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993(a)年份
(℃
)最
低温
度的
极端
低值
观测 模拟 订正
图 1979 ~ 1993 年 15 年均宁夏地区日较差的空间分布 (1 :观测; 2 :模拟; 3 :订正,单位:℃; d/a)
Rice sites
Wheat sites
Maize
Rice,wheat
Maize,wheat
Rice,wheat ,maize
KM
GY
SX
CSNC
HK
NNGZ
FJ
HLJ
JLXJ
QH
NMG
XZ
DH
The distribution of agricultural crop stations selected in this study in China24 wheat experiment stations
19 rice experiment stations
13 maize experiment stations
成熟期
120
140
160
180
200
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993
年份
日数
观测ERAERA- m
产量
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993
年份
(kg/
ha)
产量
观测ERAERA- m
成熟期
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993
年份
日数
观测ERA
ERA- m
产量
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1981 1984 1987 1990 1993
年份
(kg/
ha)
产量
观测ERAERA- m
山西太谷
(冬小麦)
Winter wheat
青海湟源
(春小麦)
Spring wheat
R = 0.9894
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
实测成熟期( d)( a)
模拟
成熟
期(d
)
R = 0.7479
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
0 3000 6000 9000 12000
实测产量( kg/ hm2)( b)
模拟
产量
(kg/
hm2 ) R = 0.6438
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
实测千粒重(g)(c)
模拟
千粒
重(g
)
R = 0.8009
0
10000
20000
30000
0 10000 20000 30000
实测粒数(粒/m2)
(d)
模拟
粒数
( 粒/m
2)
R = 0.995
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
50 100 150 200 250 300 350
实测成熟期( d)( e)
模拟
成熟
期(d
)
R = 0.8301
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
0 3000 6000 9000 12000
实测产量(kg/hm2)
(f)
模拟
产量
(kg/
hm2) R = 0.8259
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
实测千粒重(g)(g)
模拟
千粒
重(g
)
R = 0.8591
0
10000
20000
30000
0 10000 20000 30000
实测粒数(粒/m2)
(h)
模拟
粒数
( 粒/m
2)
综 合 验 证 /Validation
( a ) ~ ( d ) : 订正前模拟值与实测值比较 /No Correction
( e ) ~ ( h ):订正后模拟值与实测值比较
数据应用方法数据应用方法Data application methodData application method
观 测 值observation
基准 Baseline未 来 情 景
Futureclimate scenario
农业影响评估流程图农业影响评估流程图 //ImpactImpactss AssessmentAssessmentss of Climate Change on of Climate Change on ChinChin
ese ese AgricultureAgriculture
PRECISDaily
Tmax/min, Pre, Srad
CropVarieties
SoilData
ManagementData
Cropmodels
YieldChanges,
etc
应用应用 PRECISPRECIS 格点情景数据进行影响评估流程图格点情景数据进行影响评估流程图Flowchart of Impacts Assessments with PRECIS Gridded ScenariosFlowchart of Impacts Assessments with PRECIS Gridded Scenarios
GIS technology
气候变化情景
中国边界图( scale 1:1,000,000 )栅格图( 50×50km )
土地利用图
土壤数据图
品种分布
种植措施
模型运行
栅格产量结果
确认
作物影响评价作物影响评价CO2 肥效作用(小麦 -A2 ) With CO2 fertilization( Wheat-A2 )
不同水分条件(玉米— CO2 ) Different water conditions( maize—with CO2 fertilization )
不同气候情景(水稻 -- 灌溉) Different scenarios( Rice--irrigation )
无 有
灌溉雨养
A2 B2
熊伟、居辉博士提供
极端气候事件对生态系统的影响 Extreme events have extreme impacts on natural ecosystems in China
The impacts of extreme events on natural ecosystems in China
under B2 scenario
The impacts of extreme events on natural ecosystems in China
under A2 scenario
对径流的影响 /Changes of runoff in China
黄河流域的干旱 / 长江流域的洪涝都将加剧A2
B2
Similar to A2 scenario, but amplitude is not so large as A2 scenario
The drought would be enhanced along the Yellow River
While the potential flooding risk along the Yangtze River would increase under SRES A2 scenario
存在问题及未来工作展望存在问题及未来工作展望 Problems and future workProblems and future work Just PRECIS-generated scenarios used Just PRECIS-generated scenarios used 仅仅 PRECISPRECIS 情景应情景应
用于项目影响评估研究用于项目影响评估研究 Problems: uncertainties Problems: uncertainties 问题问题 :: 不确定性分析不够不确定性分析不够
To generate more climate scenariosTo generate more climate scenarios 产生更多情景数据产生更多情景数据 To produce much more user-friendly datasetsTo produce much more user-friendly datasets 生成用户友生成用户友
好的数据库好的数据库
What’s the next-step work? What’s the next-step work? 下一步的工作下一步的工作 :: More GCMs More GCMs 更多的更多的 GCMGCM 数据数据 More RCMs-PRECIS, RegCM3 More RCMs-PRECIS, RegCM3 更多的更多的 RCMRCM 数据数据 More scenarios: more jobs for SRES A1BMore scenarios: more jobs for SRES A1B more RCPs scenariosmore RCPs scenarios Resolution: 50kmResolution: 50km25km25km 增加分辨率增加分辨率 Daily-levelDaily-levelhourly levelhourly level