Practicum Site : North Albion Collegiate Institute

Subject : CGW4U Instructor : Mr. Ellis

A population is a group of organisms of the same species that live in a particular area. The world population is the total number of humans alive at a given time.

Demography - This is the study of human population

dynamics/characteristics. Demographics include birth rate, death rate, immigration, age, income, sex, education, occupation, religion, nationality, …

- - It also looks at populations change over time due to the birth, death, fertility, migration rates and ageing of the population.

Population Growth: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b98JmQ0Cc3k&feature=related

1) Rate of Natural Increase: birth rate – death rate = rate of natural increase

Two of the most basic factors that affect Population change are the Birth rates and Death rates – called Vital Statistics.

Birth rate: number of live births per 1,000 population per year.

Death rate: number of deaths per 1,000 population per year.

Birth and Death rates typically are stated as numbers per 1000 population per year. Eg. If a country has a birth rate of 8, this means that out of every 1000 people in that country 8 babies will be born in one year.

Calculate birth and death rates pg 169 “Making connections: Grd 9 GEO text

Is expressed as a percentages Eg 6/1000 ……a population’s natural

increase rate is 0.6% An important concept in most countries

since it’s the most important reason why the population increase (or decrease).

2) Migration rates Net migration = (immigration – emigration)/total population x

1000

Immigration rate: number of people entering a country per 1,000 population per year. Eg the immigration rate for Canada is 7/1000 (0.7%).

Emigration rate: number of people entering a country per 1,000 population per year. Eg 2/1000 (0.2%) for Canada

Net migration = 7- 2 = 5/1000 or (0.5%)

3) Population Growth Rate: This is a combination of the rate of natural

increase and the net migration rate. Population growth rate = natural increase rate + net

migration rate = 6 + 5 = 11/1000 or 1.1 %

Eg from pg 170 Making Connections

Net Migration = Net migration = (immigration –

emigration)/total population x 1000 =(7- 2) = 5/1000 or (0.5%)

• A population in an area/country can also change in other ways

• Two are: the total fertility rate (TFR) and the life expectancy at birth.

• The total fertility rate is the number of children a woman would have during her reproductive life if she experienced the prevailing rates of fertility at each age (or during child bearing age- 15 to 45 yrs)

• In other words “the average amount of babies a woman will have based on that countries statistics.

• High-fertility countries may have birth rates of 40 or even 50 per 1000 population (per year); corresponding levels of the TFR would be 5 to 7 children per woman.

• Low-fertility countries have birth rates of 15 to 20 per 1000 and TFRs of about 2.

Doubling time: the time its takes for a population to double at its current population growth

Rule of 70 : used to estimate how many years the population will take to double

It is arrived at by dividing 70 the population growth rate

Eg. Canada has a population of an estimated 30,000,000 people and a growth rate of 1.1% and Togo has a population growth of 3.6%

Using the rule of 70: = (70/1.1) = 63. 6 ……64NB: It will take 64years for Canada to double

its population, while Togo will take approx. 20 years

4) Population density :is the number of people living per square kilometer in an area/country.

Video Clip: The Malthusian Theory Explained

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhkPjXyIRak&feature=related

THOMAS ROBERT MALTHUS

• Thomas Malthus: English economist - 1766 to 1834

• Witnessed huge population increases in European cities (England) due to Industrial Revolution.

• Wrote An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) in which he argued that populations grow geometrically (exponentially) – 1,2,4,8,16,32… but food supply only arithmetically - 1,2,3,4,5,6,….

• Population would soon outstrip food supply.

Stage Food supply Population

A 1 1

B 2 2

C 3 4

D 4 8

E 5 16

etc.

Thomas Robert Malthus argued that there are “natural checks” on population growth that would make the population and food supply be in balance once again: War Famine Disease

Core Principles of Malthus Food is necessary for human existence. Human population tends to grow faster than

the power in the earth to produce subsistence, and that

The effects of these two unequal powers must be kept equal.

Since humans tend not to limit their population size voluntarily (“preventive checks” in Malthus's terminology), population reduction tends to be accomplished through the “positive checks” of famine, disease, poverty and war.

Problems with Malthusian Theory: • Malthus lived in a pre-industrial society.• Theory does not consider the technological

revolutions in agriculture and medicine.• Mathematically biased – humans as baby-

producing machines. Nonetheless, a renewed and updated

Malthusian theory argues that population in some parts of the world is currently outgrowing available food supply, leading to poverty, urban crowding, disease, and social unrest.

An anti-Malthusian school of thought believes that people will adapt to their environment in order to sustain population growth.

The use of antibiotics and vaccination to prevent disease or the coming of the Green Revolution which supplied the world with food are examples of how people can adapt to support larger population.

Because of examples such as these, the Adaptation Theory has found greater acceptance in modern times.

Core Principles of the Adaptation Theory Food is necessary for human existence. Human population tends to grow faster than the

power in the earth to produce subsistence, and that

These two unequal powers may made equal through human efforts.

Since humans tend not to limit their population size voluntarily, we must find ways to grow more food, and prevent disease in order to sustain the population.

Paul Ehrlich is a neo-Malthusian

• In 1968 he published a book “The Population Time Bomb”

• He believed rapid population growth would cause mass famine and economic catastrophe

Check the population through the use of contraceptives (pills, condoms etc)

• In his book, he predicted millions of people would starve to death during the 1970s and 1980s.

• This did not occur because food production increased faster than population growth during these times.

• Currently he is focusing on the impacts of overpopulation , over consumption and damaging technologies may have on the environment – global warming, acid rain, ozone depletion, starvation, malnutrition, war, crime and disease.

• Population size and environmental problems are not linked to developing nations only

• The U.S. is a good example – population problems occur in rich countries as well – the blackout, pollution, crime etc.

• Ehrlich does not believe that science will save us. Science has helped in increasing food production, but it has not improved the distribution of food and science has destroyed the soil through fertilization and pesticide use.

• Humans are subject to the earth’s carrying capacity – the maximum number of individuals that a habitat can support.

• The optimum global population will be determined by levels of energy consumption – especially fossil fuels. Wow, this is an amazing prediction based on the blackout of 2003!

• Rich countries consume 70% of all energy. If the world’s population grows to 10 billion, the energy consumption in the developed world will jump to 90%.

• He believes that the earth is already 2 billion people over based on the current energy consumption levels.

• Even if populations are reduced through education, health care and birth control, it would be difficult to convince the developed world to decrease their affluence. (again what happened during the blackout of 2003)

• Ehrlich believes there are too many people consuming too much!

Getting control of birth and death rates can be illustrated through the Demographic Transition Model 1930s American Warren Thompson Countries are at different stages… all countries

will eventually pass through all stages Shows dynamics of population change over time Based on Western European experience Can less developed regions achieve

demographic transition today given new circumstances?

TIME(in years)

50

40

30

20

10

0

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5

Birth rate

Death rate

Naturalincrease gap

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEJ6J6-nYVE&feature=related

Explanative PHASE ONE: “Pre-Modern Era”

Birth rates and death rates are high. The natural increase gap is small - population grows slowly. Little access to birth control

High infant mortality rate so parents have more children to compensate

Children needed to work the land High death rate due to disease, famine, lack of public

health Religious or cultural basis for having large families

No country is really in stage one.

Explanative PHASE TWO: “Industrializing Era”

Death rate declines and birth rate remains high. The natural increase gap becomes larger – population explosion.

Improvements in health care, sanitation, and water supply Production of food rises Transportation and communication improve movement of

food and medical supplies Decrease in infant mortality

Many developing countries are currently in stage 2 or 3.

Explanative PHASE THREE: “Mature Industrial”

Birth rate begins to decline and the death rate remains low. The natural increase gap narrows – population explosion slows.

Increased access to birth control Lower infant mortality rate realized – less need to

have a large number of children Fewer labourers needed due to mechanization Change of desires to material possessions from

large families Equality of women

Many developing countries are currently in stage 2 or 3.

Explanative PHASE FOUR: “Post-Industrial”

Birth rate and death rate tend to be low and steady. The natural increase gap is small – slow population growth.

Steady population Many developed countries are currently in stage 4.

PHASE FIVE Not part of original model Many developed countries are seeing declining rates of

natural increase and are focusing on immigration to fill jobs

A few developed countries are in stage 5.

Population density movie: http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=fg6jusw1UW0

Date Population8000BC 5M

4000BC 87M

1AD 250M

1650 500M

1850 1.1B

1930 2B

1950 2.5B

1970 3.6B

1988 5.1B

1999 6B

2015 approx 9B

Overpopulation occurs when an organism exceeds the carrying capacity of its habitat. Carrying capacity is the number of individuals in a population that the resource of a habitat can support. In other words these cities, especially in South East Asia, have more people than the amount of resources available.

Hence overpopulation occurs when there are more people in an area/city/region is greater than the available and accessible amount of resources (education, health care, social amenities/infrastructure, jobs etc

 

Human Population: Fundamentals of Growth Population Growth and Distribution                                                                                                                                                                                                            

World Population Growth, 1750–2150

                                                                                                                                                                                                           

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 1998 Revision; and estimates by the Population Reference Bureau.

911

14

18 18

26

23 23

27

London Tokyo New York

Sao Paulo

MexicoCity

Tokyo Mumbai(Bombay)

Dhaka Tokyo

1960 2000 2015

Millions

United Nation Report, 2003

Most parts of the world is uninhabited while certain areas are overpopulated.

RankRank Country/regionCountry/region PopulationPopulation

11 ChinaChina 1 306 313 8121 306 313 812

22 IndiaIndia 1 080 264 388

33 European UnionEuropean Union 456 953 258

44 United StatesUnited States 295,734,134

55 IndonesiaIndonesia 241,973,879

66 BrazilBrazil 186,112,794

77 PakistanPakistan 162,419,946

88 BangladeshBangladesh 144,319,628

Total World Population

6,446,131,4006,446,131,400

July 2005 est.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uN58TeT9EA&feature=related

Majority of the population lives: In cities Along the 49th parallel (Cities along the

Canada-US border) Cities along the Windsor Corridor

NB: The Canadian north is sparsely settled

Population density is the total number of persons living in area per square kilometer (Km2 )

Population density = total population Area

Eg Canada

Population density = total population Area = 31,612,897/ 9 984 670 square Kilometers = 3.1 /Km2 So in Canada there is an average of 3 individuals in each Km2. OR simply the

population density in Canada is 3.1 /Km2

Would Ontario’s population density be smaller or larger than that of Canada?

Lets Check it out

Population density = total population Area

Eg Ontario

Population density = total population Area = 11, 410,046/1, 076, 395 square km = 10.6 /Km2

Would Ontario’s population density be smaller/larger than that of Canada?

Ans: Larger. More people live in cities

Population Density Comparison by Country United States 75  people per square mile India 750   Japan 800   Bangladesh 2250    

Population Density Comparison by City Los Angeles 9000   New York 11,000   Mexico City 40,000   Mumbai 127,000

More than half the earth has densities < 1/km2

Much of the earth is basically uninhabited - central and northern Asia, the interiors of Australia, South America, Africa – mountains, deserts and polar regions.

Population density is very misleading as it varies greatly even within countries, like Canada or Egypt.

Cost of and accessibility of birth control

- At least 150 million couples throughout the world want, but do not have, access to reproductive health services.

- 1.45 billion women are in their childbearing years- 210 million of these women become pregnant each year

63% of pregnancies result in live births 22% in abortions 15% in miscarriage 1/3 of the population growth in the world is the result of

incidental or unwanted pregnancies.

Cultural barriers : men wanting many children; - In some countries (esp. in rural areas of China

and India there is a preference of having boys. Religious beliefs : Catholics (conservatives

Catholics) do not believe in the use of contraceptives. So religion results in little choice for women

High death rates, so overcompensation with the number of births.

Why so many children? Parents expecting some of their children to

die at an early age would have 8 to 10 children, hoping 5 or 6 would survive.

Reducing infant and child mortality makes parents more open to the idea of smaller families, eliminating the need for an insurance effect.

Many people still want more than enough children to replace themselves.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7wiU_o4UlA&feature=related

Famine Urbanization Shortage of jobs Poverty Shortage of space Shortage of natural resources (water, etc) Pollution Conflict / war Lack of provision of government services

Technology and innovation- Eg increasing the production of food (Genetically

Modified Food) Sex education

Abstinence Rhythm method Birth control

Liberalizing abortion Improved education of women Improved access to birth control Laws limiting number of children people can have Natural checks (?!)

LESSON 4:

VIDEO: “WORLD POPULATION ISSUES:HOW MANY IS TOO MANY” (27mins)

Countries: India and China

Groups

1. What are the Facts 2. Note the things that are good about the

programs/laws used to control population3. What is negative about the laws or programs?

Will it/will it not work (Are they sustainable?)4. Emotions laws/programs to control population

make you feel? Could it work here in Canada? Why or Why not?

5. What extensions could be added/ taken away from the programs to make it work better.