“Moving from Upstream to Midstream: Response Tools for

Genocide and Atrocity Crimes Prevention”

Dr. James Waller, KSC/AIPR and Ms. Samantha Capicotto, AIPR

November 2015

Continuum of Genocide Prevention Strategies

• Primary Prevention– Upstream Prevention– “Before” Analysis of

Structural Risk Factors• Secondary PreventionSecondary Prevention

– Midstream PreventionMidstream Prevention– Immediate, Real-Time Immediate, Real-Time

Relief Efforts During CrisisRelief Efforts During Crisis• Tertiary Prevention

– Downstream Prevention– “After” Efforts to Foster

Resiliency in Post-Genocide Society

Learning Objectives

• Understand the…– (1) political, economic, legal, and military

preventive response tools available to help halt and reverse escalating threats of genocide and mass atrocities;

– (2) clear benefits of early preventive action over more costly remedial efforts;

– (3) importance of strategic planning, contingency preparations, realistic exercising, and learning from the past.

Spectrum of Influence for Response Tools

Target Groups for Response Tools

What are the political, economic, legal, and military preventive

response tools available to help halt and reverse escalating

threats of genocide and mass atrocities?

Midstream Tools for Genocide Prevention

Political Response Tools

Cooperative• Diplomatic Legitimization

and Recognition Benefits• Resources for Enabling

Dialogue• Political and Field

Missions• Support for Human

Rights Promotion, Monitoring, and Documentation

Political Response Tools

Cooperative• Diplomatic Legitimization

and Recognition Benefits• Resources for Enabling

Dialogue• Political and Field

Missions• Support for Human

Rights Promotion, Monitoring, and Documentation

Coercive• Threat or Application of

Political or Diplomatic Sanctions

• Condemnation (Unilateral or Multilateral)

• Sporting or Cultural Boycotts

• Proscription of Individuals and Organizations

Midstream Tools for Genocide Prevention

Economic Response Tools

Cooperative• Lifting of Existing

Sanctions or Embargoes• Debt Relief or Increased

Aid• New Funding or Investment• Trade Incentives (Tariff

Reductions, Direct Purchases, Favored Status, Subsidies, Import/Export Licenses, etc.)

Economic Response Tools

Cooperative• Lifting of Existing Sanctions

or Embargoes• Debt Relief or Increased Aid• New Funding or Investment• Trade Incentives (Tariff

Reductions, Direct Purchases, Favored Status, Subsidies, Import/Export Licenses, etc.)

Coercive• Targeted or “Smart”

Financial Sanctions• Trade Embargoes• Freezing or Seizing of

Monetary Assets of Elites Responsible for Atrocities

• Divestment or Aid Conditionality

Midstream Tools for Genocide Prevention

Legal Response Tools

Cooperative• Monitors to Observe

Compliance with Human Rights Standards and Law

• Offers of Amnesty or Immunity

• Domestic Support of Dispute Resolution Mechanisms

• References to Existing International Law and Norms

Legal Response Tools

Cooperative• Monitors to Observe

Compliance with Human Rights Standards and Law

• Offers of Amnesty or Immunity

• Domestic Support of Dispute Resolution Mechanisms

• References to Existing International Law and Norms

Coercive• Action by UN Organs• Human Rights

Investigations• Threats of Referral or

Actual Referral for Criminal Prosecution (Domestic or International)

• Exercise of Universal Jurisdiction

Midstream Tools for Genocide Prevention

Military Response Tools

Cooperative• Military Aid or Training• Confidence and Security-

Building Measures• Security Guarantees for the

Protection of Civilians (Safe Havens or Evacuation)

• Consensual Preventive Deployment

Military Response Tools

Cooperative• Military Aid or Training• Confidence and Security-

Building Measures• Security Guarantees for the

Protection of Civilians (Safe Havens or Evacuation)

• Consensual Preventive Deployment

Coercive• Restricted Arms,

Movements, and Communications

• Heightened Military Presence in the Region

• Credible Threat of Military Force

• Use of Military Force for Nonconsensual Coercive Intervention

Lessons Learned

• Clear benefits of early preventive action (upstream and midsteram) over more costly remedial efforts (downstream).

• Importance of strategic planning, contingency preparations, realistic exercising, and learning from the past.