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Matt Gates

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Forecast sprawl Guide long-range population and employment forecasts o For the region o For individual counties Allocate growth to County subdivisions o Municipalities o Traffic Analysis Zones Test policies o Highway vs transit investment o VMT tax o Purchase development rights

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General purpose land use planning, analysis, and forecasting tool Integrates demographic, employment, land use, and transportation data within GIS Identifies vacant land that will be developed o No infill o No redevelopment Links to Travel Demand Model o No direct connection o No feedback loop o Single future year outcome (no interim years)

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Highway Congestion Transit Network GIS Map of New Development Patterns MCD & TAZ Tabular Summaries

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1. Determine amount of population and employment growth 2. Define Allocation Areas 3. Remove Development Masks from Allocation Areas 4. Determine development Attractors and Discouragements 5. Run synthetic auction

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Population and Housing o Total population o Persons per household o Percent of units by household density type o Average lot size by household density type Employees and Jobs o Employment per household o Percent of jobs in employment density type o Average Square footage by employment density type GIS layers o Buffer (area of influence) o Weight (magnitude of influence)

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Existing open space o Vacant o Agricultural o Wooded Planned Growth Areas As of Right or Proposed Zoning

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Parks, Military, Protected Areas (NJ Pine Lands, Farms) Environmental Conservation Areas Water Bodies, Streams, and Wetlands Existing Development

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Transportation Infrastructure o Freeway Interchanges o Other Major Roadways o Rail Stations and Bus Lines Similar Existing Development (Clustering) Favorable Government Policy Highway Congestion (Commercial Only)

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Montgomery County, PA

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Preservation Areas Flood Plains and Wetlands Steep Slope Unfavorable Government Policy Highway Congestion (Residential Only)

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Allocation Area Wooded Vacant Agricultural Masks DiscouragersAttractors Congestion Steep Slope Municipal Policy Coefficients Water Features Existing Development Protected Lands Similar Type Development (Clustering) Transportation Facilities Sewers Municipal Policy Coefficients

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UUPlan allocates New Footprint Development by bidding priority oIoIndustrial highest bidder oRoResidential high density oCoCommercial high density oRoResidential medium density oCoCommercial low density oRoResidential low density- lowest bidder oRoResidential v. low density

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UPlan allocation without NJ 55 UPlan allocation with NJ 55 1990-2005 land use change Legend !. FreewayInterchange !. FreewayInterchange (Unbuilt) Freeway Major Arterial Minor Arterial 1990 Existing Development Undevelopable Land Land Use Commercial Industrial High-Density Residential Medium/Low-Density Residential Gloucester County, NJ N

Slide 15 "high density" everywhere else High degree of differentiation within each county">

Magnitude of total demographic and employment growth determined by user Existing development is fixed. User defines where redevelopment can occur Weak transportation linkage County-level densities can be confusing in final presentation o Low-density" in Philadelphia > "high density" everywhere else High degree of differentiation within each county