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Present by

General Ekkachai Srivilas

Director of the Office of Peace and Governance of King Prajadhipok’s Institute

CHINA - ASEAN Integration

in social and culture context

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• The People's Republic Of China : China

• the Central Military Commission of the People's Republic of China (Vice President)

• Studies Geopolitics

• Individual Research National Defence College : The People's Republic Of China and Thailand Security

• Study Megatrend Asia : The Eight Asian Megatrends that are changing the world.

Presentation

Pivot Area

Heart Land and Rim Land Strategy

http://www.tortaharn.net/contents/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=63&Itemid=75&ccdate=6-2008









CHAINA and SOUTH EAST ASIA

www.kpi.ac.th

Using state of art in each time period

Military Conduct

Political Conduct

Economic Conduct

Social Psychology Conduct

Culture and Religion

Media Power

Facebook, Line,Twitter, Vdeo link, Mobile Phone,

TV and Radio online

Using of national resources

The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) will not be

achieved, if not learn the fundamental of social and cultural of the community (Multicultural Society and

Culture).

Adapting to the different contexts of ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community.

Promoting the peace process in the management of cultural diversity.

Learning more about ASEAN Culture

Interesting issues

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Identity of ASEAN is Diverse identities

Geopolitics

Different Political and Administrative

System of ASEAN Countries (5 systems)

Religious diversity: Buddhist,

Islam and Christianity

More than 700 race and

ethnicity groups

Speaking more than 500 languages

Different education systems

Population more than 600 million

people

Interesting issues (Cont.)

One country, two systems" is a basic

state policy of the Chinese government

People generally respected ancestors

Racial and ethnic diversity

297 languages in china

Different Education Systems

Population more than 1,300 million people

ASEAN CHINA

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Each country conditions in ASEAN

• The differences in levels of development.

• Reliance on outside the region

• Different capacities

• The diversity of political systems

• Cultural Diversity

• Nationalist feelings

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• Look at the ASEAN economic dimension alone

• Do everything to exploit its neighbors

• Not understanding cultural diversity

• The border viewing is a national problem

• Lack perspective of equality and humanitarian

Weaknesses of Thailand

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• China has the largest population in the world 1300 million.

• Most Chinese citizens traveling to Thailand each year 2.5 million people.

• Aimed to develop logistics system in ASEAN and connecting to Europe

• China is the leading country among the BRIC nations (

Brazil Russia India China ) nearly half of the world's most populous. China is becoming the largest economy in the world.

Oportunity of Thailand

Country PopulationChina 1,347,350,000India 1,210,193,422Brazil 200,826,000Russia 143,100,000

The Big Four BRICs country

The Eight Asian

Megatrends that

are changing the world.

From Megatrend 2000 and Megatrend Asia of John Nibitt

• Prediction of global prosperity will flow back to Japan, China, Korea and ASEAN.

• World Bank analysts say the year 2025 China will be the world's No. 1 economic power, followed by the US, India and Germany.

• US cooperation with the European Union tries to block the economic growth of China.

• Incorporating the new world order is coming under pressure environment, human rights, democracy and free trade.

• China fighting unyieldingly, the Chinese yuan is not yet in the global financial system.

• Robert Mundell,a professor of economics at Columbia University in New York. He was awarded Nobel Prize in Economics in 1999 and delivered lecture on the topic “Global Currency: Dollar, Euro, Renminbi (Yuan)” at the United Nations Conference Centre, Bangkok on December 7, 2011.

• He said that the next 4-5 years China’s yuan will be currency of the regional and global. The yuan currency's 3rd largest global currency to replace the Japanese yen. And future euro-dollar And the yuan as an international currency. The yuan currency is 3rd largest global currency to replace the Japanese yen and future euro-dollar and yuan will be as an international currency.

• ASEAN has agreed to cooperate with China and Japan in the currency. The currency of China or Japan could be major currencies of the region. It may include a basket of currencies of the region

The Chinese yuan is a currency exchange in the region and the world.

• Asia still has not a single currency because it can not be combined perfectly with the EU on many issues.

• In the next 4-5 years, China will allow Yuan is a currency that can be exchanged at both the regional and global levels. And a basket of major currencies, will help establish the ASEAN.

• In the future, China will raise Shanghai to be World Financial Centre. That can be associated or compared with London and New York.

The Chinese yuan is a currency exchange in the region and the world.

The trend of world economic powers• Rich nations must adapt to these two countries. Before

everything is too late

• Goldman Sachs, famous investment banker forecasts that in 2050 GDP of China will grow from a total value 2 to 48.6 trillion dollars.

• GDP of India currently is less than 1 trillion dollars but it will rise to 27 trillion dollars.

• GDP of US will increase from 13 trillion dollars to only 37 trillion dollars which is less than China 10 trillion dollars.

• The economies of China and India in 2050 is likely to grow by up to 22 times, while the G7 nations is expected to expand only 2.5 times.

• China and India come to invest heavily in Africa

(James Wolfensohn, former President of the World Bank speaking at the University of New South Wales, Sydney)

• Burma close links with China and India

• Near Kolkata between Delhi and Bombay, Shanghai, Hong Kong

• India's northeastern including Myanmar , Yunnan , Sichuan , Chongqing, Bangladesh, West Bengal = population of 500 million people.

• Lao has hydropower station and is landlocked nation, near the sea of Vietnam

and attached with the countries with high economic growth.

• Lao is regional transport corridor.

• Vietnam has a long coastline on the upper ASEAN and has the most populous. Moreover Vietnam fear China the most.

• Cambodia is the most loved China and it is the smallest country of the upper ASEAN. Cambodia is most closely with China.

• Thailand attached Indochina with the Malay Peninsula and connect the Indian and Pacific Ocean

• Thailand control the land route which connects all of Asia to Malaysia and Singapore. The route is the Buddhist world that connect with the world's Muslims live in South.

• Thailand is an important state of Tai - Tai - Laos race combined100 million people spread in China, India, Myanmar, Laos, Vietnam and Thailand. As Turkey is a state of the nation of the turkic peoples who spread across Central Asia.

The geographical proximity between China, India and ASEAN upper

• The long border between China - India - ASEAN upper

BoundaryThe length of the

border (km).

China-India 3,380China-ASEAN upper 3,889India-ASEAN upper 1,463

China's transport network

Strategic of moving to South China

• China wants to develop Yunnan.

• China wants to exit to the Indian Ocean

• China's demand energy and minerals from the upper ASEAN.

• China wants to influence in ASEAN.

• China is moving into the third path.

West China build road of China-Myanmar Transport Corridor.

Nort-South China build the Greater Mekong Subregion.

South-East of China implement Pan-Beibu Gulf Economic Cooperation (PBGEC)

China aimed at the West Wing of ASEAN

• China use Myanmar into the Indian Ocean to avoid the Malacca Strait

• Myanmar to transport oil and gas from Africa and Persian Gulf into Yunnan.

• China link oil and gas with Myanmar.

• China blockade India

The construction of the Trans-Asian Railway of China

• In 2011, the construction of the Trans-Asian Railway (with Kunming as a starting point) was officially begun. This is the first high-speed railway connecting China and Southeast Asia. Its four routes include the eastern line (from Kunming to Singapore), the mid-eastern line (from Nanning to Vientiane), the middle line (from Dali to Bangkok), and the western line (from Kunming to Yangon).

• This network also links up with railway lines in Burma and India. The terminal stations on these lines (Ho Chi Minh and Singapore on the eastern line, Bangkok on the middle line, and Yangon on the western line) are all international ports.

• The economic impact of the railway will also boost the economy of the Indo-West Pacific area, and as a result, Kunming’s economic importance in Southeast Asia will increase.

• The North – South wing of ASEAN

• Balconies line North – South which have Kunming - Chiang Rai –Bangkok line across Laos and Myanmar line, Kunming - Hanoi -Hai Phong, Nanning – Hanoi line.

• The East wing of ASEAN

• Pan-Beibu Gulf Economic Cooperation (PGB) Zone covers the Chinese provinces of Guangxi, Guangdong and Hainan, and Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Indonesia and Brunei.

• The main strategy of China in the economic area

1. Connect the Gulf of Tonkin to ASEAN

2. Take Guangxi to help develop western regions such as Guangxi, Yunnan is China's only

county that is landlocked to the West.

3. While the Mekong sub-region, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) pioneered China was

the only participant but in the economic zone around the Gulf Pei Pu, China is a leading full

4. Access to oil and minerals in ASEAN.

5. Reduce tensions in the conflict in the South China Sea.

6. China initiate Pan-Beibu Economic Community which China wants to become another high-growth economies in the Western Pacific. And China might initiate East Asia Economic Community (EAEC) in the future.

China’s Strategic on Burma

China's Maritime Transport, Energy Route Map

The China-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline project

Department of International Trade Promotion

China at a glance

• China now became the 2nd largest top economy (GDP in trillion dollars : China 5.879, US 14.6 and Japan 5.474)

• China became the world’s largest exporter and the 2nd largest importer• Growing China middle class 50 million in 2010, approximately 130 million in

2020• Economic development has progressed further in coastal province than in the

interior • Wealth disparity• 2.8 % of chinese’s income or 21.5 million under poverty line(90 USD/year)

and 35.5 million less than 125 USD/year


• China is the World Factory• Major Global Market Place• GDP 2011 yoy increase 9.2%= 7 trillion USD

China at a glance


• The 12th Economic and Social Development plan • “Go West” Policy :To Develop China’s western regions• Economic growth not less than 7% • Protect the environment and improve energy efficiency• Domestic consumption instead of exports• Improve the lives of Chinese citizens• Develop 7 priority industries : energy saving and environmental

protection; new energy; clean energy vehicles, and biotechnology; new material; new IT; high end manufacturing

China at a glance


• Foreign exchange reserve 3.2 trillion USD• Yuan displacing USD as a medium of exchange• With ASEAN, India, Brazil etc.• China announced $11 billion currency swap agreement with

Thailand

China at a glance


• Trade surplus continue declined Trend (Billion USD)

2011 2010 2009 2008

155.14 183.1 196.07 295.47

China at a glance


China Vs Thailand• Trade between China

and Thailand also increase

• China replaced the US as Thailand’s top export destination(11% of all Thai export)

Total % export % import %

31,278. 26.9 12,127 35.5 19,105 22

Trade bet. China and Thai 2011 (Jan – June)

Source : China’s Customs Statistics

Unit : Million USD


China VS Asean • An economic region of 1.9 Billion

consumers and combine trade 4.5 Trillion USD

• Asean-China trade grow much faster are 20.4%/year

• China Asean FTA effective since 2010

• Trade between China and Asean increase

• 2011 (6 months) total trade 171.1 Billion increased 25.4% export 80 Billion import 90 Billion


Western China

• Including 12 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions

• Area: 6.85 million sq km accounting for 71.4% of China

• Population: 360 million accounting for 26.9% of the national total

• GDP in 2010 : 7.4343 trillion RMB, or 18.68% of the national total.


Yunnan map


Yunnan vs Asean

• Yunnan is the nearest province of Asean.The Province share a 4,060 kilometers border with Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam


Yunnan Vs Asean(2011)

• Total Trade 59 thousand million yuan increased 28.7%

• Export from Yunnan 35.46 thousand million yuan increased 22.4%

• Import to Yunnan 23.5 thousand million yuan increased 39.8%

• Yunnan export Chemical, processing products, machinery


Yunnan

• The Bridgehead Project was launched in 2009 in order to communicate and co-operate with South-east Asia and South Asia and Mekong Valley Area

• Go west policy vs 12th five year economic plan (2011-2015)

a plan project to have 5 targets increase

GDP 10%,Fixed asset investment 15%,

Local fiscal revenues 13%, Retail

sales revenues of consumer products 16%, total trade 17%


• Pan Asia: Rail and Road • High way 65,800 km• China – India (Stiwell Road)• Guangtong – Dali Railway to Myanmar,India and Bangladesh• Kunming – Daluo Highway• Yunnan – Vietnam Railway• Kunming – Bangkok (1,800 km) Highway

Bridgehead opening towards Southwest China


Thai fruits in supermarket China

Strategy of Thailand

• Implementing a land bridge to link the Indian Ocean with the Pacific.

• Development of Chiang Rai, Nong Khai, Bueng Kan is the aviation hub connected to China, Myanmar and Vietnam.

• Connecting Satun with Sumatra. As Satun is a province in the south of Thailand and is a part of the Strait of Malacca.

• Implementing Phuket island connect with India

• Connecting south of Thailand connected with ASEAN

• Focus on cultural diplomacy to build a relationship Thailand - Laos

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