103 12

103 103~112

u0270842-1R0

...................................................................................... 1

.................................................................................................. 1

...................................................................................... 1

.................................................................................................. 1

.......................................................................................... 3

............................................................. 4

......................................................................... 4

................................................................................. 4

......................................................................... 9

............................................................... 17

........................................................... 19

............................................................................... 19

............................................................................... 21

....................................................................... 23

............................................................... 23

....................................................................... 24

102 112 ....................................... 25

.................................................................................... 33

2-1 103122 ........................................................... 7

2-2 103122 ..................... 9

2-3 ..................................................... 12

2-4 103122 ............................... 16

2-5 102122 ............................... 18

3-1 ............................................................................. 19

3-2 102~112 . 22

3-3 102112 ....................... 23

3-4 102112 ................... 24

3-5 102~112 ................................. 26

3-6 102112 ........................... 27

3-6 102112 1 ............ 28

3-6 102112 2 ............ 29

3-7 102112 ........................... 30

3-7 102112 1 ............ 31

3-7 102112 2 ............ 32

2-1 103122 ............................................. 5

2-2 103122 ......................................... 6

2-3 103122 ................................................. 6

2-4 ............................................. 10

2-5 103122 ................................... 13

2-6 103122 ................................... 13

2-7 103122 ....................................... 14

2-8 103122 ........................................... 14

2-9 103122 ........................................... 15

2-10 103 ................. 17

2-11 103122 ............................... 18

3-1 - ............ 20

3-2 - 21

1

93 7

94

20

15

2

101 15% 16%

-

100%

IPP 1

1

101 6 15

1

3

15% 8 3

9 17 15%102

15%

103

GDP

(103

GDP 103 8

)

4

103

104 2

105 TaiSEND

103

103 3.41% 104 3.51%

122 1.96% 20

2.52% 2-1

2 103 103104 103 8 15 102

103 3.41% 3.51%

5

102 103~122

2-1 103122

GDP 102

1.33% 122 0.93% 20

0.72% GDP 102 36.55%

122 39.81% 20 2.96%

GDP 102 62.12% 122

59.26% 20 2. 28% 2-2

6

102 103~122

2-2 103122

103 8 103 150

102 23,374

110(23,561)12223,110

103-122 -0.06% 2-3

102 103~122

2-3 103122

7

4~10 28

28

()

4-10

80-102 Empirical

Orthogonal Function; EOF EOF 10

15 4~10

7-8

122 34.26 5,574

2,575 2-1

2-1 103122

() () ()

() ()

()

102 33.73 4,988 2,141 113 34.02 5,441 2,416

103 33.76 5,089 2,228 114 34.05 5,455 2,434

104 33.78 5,111 2,241 115 34.08 5,461 2,449

105 33.81 5,140 2,255 116 34.10 5,460 2,463

106 33.84 5,176 2,272 117 34.13 5,456 2,476

107 33.86 5,217 2,291 118 34.16 5,456 2,489

108 33.89 5,261 2,311 119 34.18 5,469 2,505

109 33.92 5,305 2,333 120 34.21 5,507 2,525

110 33.94 5,348 2,355 121 34.24 5,540 2,550

111 33.97 5,386 2,376 122 34.26 5,574 2,575

112 34.00 5,418 2,397

102 103 ~122

8

3

4

102

103 122 102 2.84

102 2.58 5

ARIMA

20

122 403.6

122 199.7

603.3 2-2

3=/ 4

CPI

WPI 5102

9

2-2 103122

102 3.4 351.3 7.0 143.8 10.4 495.1 103 3.1 354.4 3.1 146.9 6.2 501.3 104 3.0 357.4 3.8 150.7 6.8 508.1 105 3.0 360.4 3.7 154.4 6.7 514.8 106 3.0 363.4 3.6 158.0 6.5 521.3 107 2.9 366.3 3.4 161.3 6.3 527.6 108 2.9 369.2 3.3 164.6 6.1 533.7 109 2.8 372.0 3.1 167.7 5.9 539.7 110 2.8 374.7 3.0 170.7 5.8 545.4 111 2.7 377.4 2.9 173.6 5.6 551.0 112 2.7 380.1 2.8 176.4 5.4 556.4 113 2.6 382.7 2.7 179.1 5.3 561.7 114 2.5 385.2 2.6 181.6 5.1 566.9 115 2.5 387.7 2.5 184.1 5.0 571.8 116 2.4 390.1 2.4 186.6 4.9 576.7 117 2.4 392.5 2.4 188.9 4.7 581.4 118 2.3 394.8 2.3 191.2 4.6 586.0 119 2.3 397.1 2.2 193.4 4.5 590.5 120 2.2 399.3 2.2 195.6 4.4 594.9 121 2.2 401.5 2.1 197.7 4.2 599.1 122 2.1 403.6 2.0 199.7 4.1 603.3

102

1.2.

20

2-4

10

2-4

2-3

1.

()()

(

)

6

6

11

2.

3.

()

(%)

100

1

12

2-3

A

()(

)

B

(

)

C=A+B

D

E=C+D

() F

(

)

G=E+F

1.(3/3)2012;2.

102 594.2

122 590.2 20 -0.03% 2-5

102 1,666.0 122 2418.8

20 1.88% 2-6

1022,260.5

122 3,009 20 1.44%

2-7 102 2,431.1 122

3,530.7 20 1.43% 2-8

13

102 103 ~122

2-5 103122

102 103 ~122

2-6 103122

14

1. 102 103 ~122

2.

2-7 103122

1. 102 103 ~122

2.

2-8 103122

15

102 2,521.9

122 3,356.4 20 1.44% 2-9

102 103 ~122

2-9 103122

16

2-4 103122

% % % % % % % % %

102 594.2 0.3 1,666.3 1.2 2,260.5 1.0 170.6 2,431.1 0.8 2,521.9 0.7 28,788.6 0.7 39,623.1 2.6 72.7 3.60

103 601.9 1.3 1,713.2 2.8 2,315.1 2.4 181.7 2,496.8 2.7 2,596.1 2.9 29,636.2 2.9 40,339.9 1.8 73.5 3.83

104 613.9 2.0 1,753.4 2.3 2,367.2 2.3 185.0 2,552.2 2.2 2,655.7 2.3 30,315.7 2.3 41,847.5 3.7 72.4 3.89

105 621.4 1.2 1,808.0 3.1 2,429.4 2.6 188.1 2,617.5 2.6 2,722.2 2.5 31,075.0 2.5 43,269.1 3.4 71.8 3.85

106 626.7 0.8 1,855.7 2.6 2,482.4 2.2 191.0 2,673.4 2.1 2,778.3 2.1 31,715.5 2.1 44,531.8 2.9 71.2 3.78

107 628.4 0.3 1,895.5 2.1 2,523.9 1.7 193.5 2,717.3 1.6 2,820.9 1.5 32,201.8 1.5 45,630.4 2.5 70.6 3.67

108 629.5 0.2 1,934.9 2.1 2,564.4 1.6 195.7 2,760.1 1.6 2,865.1 1.6 32,706.3 1.6 46,480.7 1.9 70.4 3.66

109 630.0 0.1 1,977.5 2.2 2,607.5 1.7 197.9 2,805.4 1.6 2,914.5 1.7 33,270.8 1.7 47,250.5 1.7 70.4 3.74

110 628.8 -0.2 2,016.4 2.0 2,645.2 1.4 200.0 2,845.3 1.4 2,957.7 1.5 33,763.6 1.5 47,968.5 1.5 70.4 3.80

111 627.2 -0.3 2,051.4 1.7 2,678.6 1.3 202.1 2,880.7 1.2 2,994.3 1.2 34,181.7 1.2 48,648.6 1.4 70.3 3.79

112 624.4 -0.4 2,086.4 1.7 2,710.9 1.2 204.2 2,915.1 1.2 3,030.4 1.2 34,593.3 1.2 49,270.9 1.3 70.2 3.80

113 620.4 -0.6 2,119.5 1.6 2,739.9 1.1 206.3 2,946.2 1.1 3,060.3 1.0 34,935.2 1.0 49,832.9 1.1 70.1 3.73

114 616.0 -0.7 2,148.9 1.4 2,765.0 0.9 208.3 2,973.3 0.9 3,088.1 0.9 35,252.5 0.9 50,372.8 1.1 70.0 3.72

115 611.6 -0.7 2,182.0 1.5 2,793.6 1.0 210.2 3,003.8 1.0 3,119.6 1.0 35,611.3 1.0 50,939.6 1.1 69.9 3.71

116 606.9 -0.8 2,216.8 1.6 2,823.7 1.1 212.0 3,035.7 1.1 3,152.4 1.1 35,986.0 1.1 51,517.1 1.1 69.9 3.70

117 602.0 -0.8 2,251.1 1.5 2,853.0 1.0 213.8 3,066.8 1.0 3,184.4 1.0 36,351.9 1.0 52,090.3 1.1 69.8 3.69

118 596.9 -0.8 2,283.0 1.4 2,879.9 0.9 215.5 3,095.4 0.9 3,216.2 1.0 36,714.7 1.0 52,663.5 1.1 69.7 3.76

119 591.8 -0.9 2,314.4 1.4 2,906.2 0.9 217.2 3,123.4 0.9 3,245.1 0.9 37,044.9 0.9 53,236.0 1.1 69.6 3.75

120 591.1 -0.1 2,350.3 1.5 2,941.4 1.2 218.7 3,160.1 1.2 3,283.1 1.2 37,478.4 1.2 53,894.4 1.2 69.5 3.75

121 590.7 -0.1 2,385.4 1.5 2,976.1 1.2 220.3 3,196.3 1.1 3,320.6 1.1 37,906.1 1.1 54,550.6 1.2 69.5 3.74

122 590.2 -0.1 2,418.8 1.4 3,009.0 1.1 221.7 3,230.7 1.1 3,356.4 1.1 38,314.6 1.1 55,202.4 1.2 69.4 3.74

103-122 (%)

-0.03 1.88 1.44 1.32 1.43 1.44 1.44 1.67

102 103 ~122

17

IPP

103

103

3,482.1 102 3,395.7 86.4 2.5%

2-10 103 7

35% 39%

2-10 103

7

345KV 87

10 29 ()

18

102 3,395.7

122 4,799.5 20 1.75%

2-11 2-5

102 103 104 ~122

2-11 103122

2-5 102122

()

(%)

()

(%) (%)

102 3,396 - 113 4,315 1.2 103-107 3.04

103 3,482 2.5 114 4,363 1.1 108-112 1.58

104 3,603 3.5 115 4,416 1.2 113-117 1.17

105 3,732 3.6 116 4,469 1.2 118-122 1.21

106 3,846 3 117 4,521 1.2 103-122 1.75

107 3,943 2.5 118 4,572 1.1

108 4,018 1.9 119 4,622 1.1

109 4,085 1.7 120 4,682 1.3

110 4,148 1.6 121 4,741 1.3

111 4,209 1.5 122 4,800 1.2

112 4,265 1.3

102103 104 ~122

19

10310

10302 8

910

( 3-1)

~ 40 20

~ 40

3-1

- 44.9% 45.6%()

45.8%- 62.07% 63%(LHV)

800

20

103 9 104 4,509MW

109 6,574MW114 9,933MW119 13,750MW

124 15,664MW

104 8,624MW109 9,617MW

114 10,263MW119 10,847MW124 11,217MW

CCS 114 90 CO2e

GHG

8 10302 103.06.23

9 101 6 15

15% 8 3 9 17

15% 101 15%

20

SMAGE-II (Simulation Model for

Aggregate Generation Expansion Planning II)

SMAGE-II

( 3-1)

102

( 3-2)

3-1 -

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112

MW

21

3-2 -

102 4,118.1

102~112

1,671.0 102~112

527.4 1143.6

112 5,261.8

~ 40 112

851.6 324.2

4 90

2,031.0 102~112

3-2

102~112

452.6 27.1%

2.0 0.1%

450.6 27.0%

1,218.4 72.9%

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

2,400

2,800

3,200

3,600

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

100

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

115

116

117

118

119

120

121

122

123

124

125

126

127

128

129

130

131

132

133

134

135

136

137

138

139

(MW

()

22

400.0 23.9%

10.6 0.6% 807.8

48.3%

4 90

452.6 22.3%

2.0 0.1%

450.6 22.2%

1,578.4 77.7%

400.0 19.7%

10.6 0.5% 1,167.8

57.5%

3-2 102~112

()

101 4,097.7

102 4,118.1

112 5,261.8

(5,297.6)

102~112 -527.4

(-851.6)

102~112 1,671.0

(2,031.0)

() ()

() 452.6 27.1%

(22.3%)

1-1

2.0

0.1%

(0.1%)

1-2 450.6 27.0%

(22.2%)

() 1,218.4

(1,578.4)

72.9%

(77.7%)

2-1

400.0 23.9%

(19.7%)

2-2 10.6 0.6%

(0.5%)

2-3 807.8

(1,167.8)

48.3%

(57.5%)

() 0.0 0.0%

1,671.0 100%

1. 101 102 2.( )

23

40

30 20 ~

40

102 112

527.4 ~

851.6 112

831.74 3-3

3-3 102112

() ()

#1~#2 60.00 103

#1~#3 76.38 104

~#5 125.00 105

#1~#2 100.00 106

#1~#2 127.20 107 108

14.00 109

#1~#2 197.00 110 112

#4~#5 74.40 109

#1~#2 57.76 112

831.74 102112

1.2. #4 103

2.8 102 (102 #4~5

74.4 )

702.78 0.8

667.78

18.8 0.8

24

14.60 (103)

3-4

3-4 102112

()

()

0.80 105

267.78 106108

240.00 105106108

160.00 105106

0.70 104

3.30 105

10.8 109

4.00 107

0.80 103104

14.60 103

702.78 1. 10302

(103.06.23 )

2.#7(90 )#4(90 )

10302

102 3,395.7 112 4,264.8

10 869.1 10 2.31%

#1 105

102 17.5% 105 6.7%

#2 #2 #1

106 7.8%107

5.1%109 #3

#2~3 8.2%110

15%

25

13.5%~16% 110~112

6

40

#1~2 107 108 #1~2 110

112 #1 107 12

108

110

15%

13.5%~16% 108~109

3.2% 110~112

10 4

3-5

102 112

15% 3-6

3-7

26

3-5 102~112

()

() ()

(%)

()

102 3,395.7 3,990.9 17.5%

103 3,482.1 3,995.1 14.7% #1~#2 (-60)

104 3,602.6 3,975.0 10.3% #1~#3 (-76.38)

105 3,732.2 3,982.3 6.7% #1 (+80)#1 (+80)

#3~#5 (-125)

106 3,846.0 4,144.4 7.8% #2 (+80)#2 (+80)

#1 (+89.26)#1~#2 (-100)

107 3,943.5 4,145.7 5.1% #1 (-63.6)

108 4,017.7 4,320.5

(4,189.0)

7.5%

(4.3%)

#2~#3 (+178.5)#3

(+80)

#2 (-63.6)

109 4,084.8 4,421.2

(4,289.7)

8.2%

(5.0%) #1#4 (-14)#4~#5 (-75.68)

110 4,148.2 4,781.9

(4,738.6)

15.3%

(14.2%) #1 (-98.5)

111 4,209.1 4,795.8

(4,826.2)

13.9%

(14.7%)

112 4,264.8 4,896.9

(4,912.6)

14.8%

(15.2%) #1~#2 (-57.76) #2 (-98.5)

1.

2.

3.( )

1. 103

20

2.

27

3-6 102112

()

(%) 102 3,395.7

4,118.2 3,990.9 17.5%

103 3,482.1 () 1~7 8.50 4,092.2 1.70 3,995.1 14.7%

#3 1 0.00 1.29

() 2,7 1.84 0.11

CCGT#4 6 2.80 2.74

7 0.00 -1.32

(#1,#2 ) 9 -60.00 -48.20

( I) 12 0.50 0.10

12 13.10 1.27

10 12 2.70 1.05

104 3,602.6 1 10.00 4,051.4 0.60 3,975.0 10.3%

1 1.50 0.09

1 24.00 4.80

1 0.20 0.10

1 0.15 0.10

3.6*10MW 1 0.00 3.60

7 0.00 6.81

(#3~4 ) 10 -0.10 -0.08

( cc#1~#3 ) 11 -76.38 -74.85

(#4 ) 12 -0.03 -0.01

(#5 ) 12 -0.11 -0.06

105 3,732.2 1 10.00 4,122.8 0.60 3,982.3 6.7%

1 24.80 4.96

1 0.30 0.15

1 0.20 0.10

1 0.20 0.13

#1 1 80.00 75.20

1 0.80 36.80

7 0.00 8.61

(#3~4 ) 7 -75.00 -71.12

(#5 ) 7 -50.00 -48.30

#1 7 80.00 75.20

#6 12 0.15 0.13

106 3,846.0 1 10.00 4,309.1 0.60 4,144.4 7.8%

1 0.10 0.05

1 25.00 5.00

1 0.40 0.20

1 0.25 0.13

1 0.20 0.13

#2 1 80.00 75.20

#7 6 0.15 0.13

#3~4 6 0.30 0.26

7 0.00 5.02

#2 7 80.00 75.20

(#3~4 ) 10 -0.10 -0.08

cc#1 10 89.26 87.47

(#1~2 ) 11 -100.00 -97.00

(#5 ) 12 -0.05 -0.04

#5~6 12 0.77 0.65

10 103 100MW 210MW

1MW 1MW 10302 7

103 12

28

3-6 102112 1

()

(%)

107 3,943.5 1 8.00 4,344.3 0.48 4,145.7 5.1%

1 0.20 0.10

1 25.00 5.00

1 1.50 0.75

1 0.25 0.13

1 0.20 0.13

7 0.00 3.70

108 4,017.7 1 7.00 4,658.6 0.42 4,320.5 7.5%

1 20.50 1.23

1 0.40 0.19

1 26.00 5.20

1 1.30 0.65

1 0.25 0.13

1 0.20 0.13

cc#2 4 89.26 87.47

#3~4 6 0.20 0.17

7 0.00 4.05

#3 7 80.00 75.20

cc#3 10 89.26 87.47

109 4,084.8 1 3.60 4,605.7 0.22 4,421.2 8.2%

1 10.00 0.60

1 0.40 0.19

1 27.00 5.40

1 3.00 1.50

1 0.25 0.13

1 0.30 0.20

7 0.00 4.96

(#1~3 ) 11 -3.13 -2.40

(#1~4 ) 11 -3.16 -2.48

(#1,4 ) 11 -14.00 -13.94

( cc#4~#5 ) 11 -77.20 -75.65

110 4,148.2 1 10.00 5,103.7 0.60 4,781.9 15.3%

1 35.00 7.00

1 1.40 0.70

1 0.31 0.16

1 0.30 0.20

#1~5(*3+*2) 1 450.00 441.00

#9 4 1.00 0.85

#10 7 1.00 0.85

7 0.00 3.83

(#4 ) 11 -1.04 -0.80

111 4,209.1 1 20.00 5,158.4 1.20 4,795.8 13.9%

1 37.00 7.40

1 1.60 0.80

1 0.31 0.16

1 0.40 0.26

#11 4 1.00 0.85

#12 7 1.00 0.85

7 0.00 3.22

(#5~10 ) 11 -6.60 -5.92

29

3-6 102112 2

()

(%)

112 4,264.8 1 4.90 5,261.8 4.17 4,896.9 14.8%

1 30.00 1.80

1 0.10 0.05

1 39.00 7.80

1 1.90 0.95

1 0.31 0.16

1 0.30 0.20

#6(*1) 1 90.00 88.20

7 0.00 3.67

(#5~10 ) 11 -2.20 -1.97

(#5~8 ) 11 -3.30 -2.59

( cc#1~2 ) 11 -57.76 -54.60

#8 12 0.15 0.13

1. 103

40 20

2.

30

3-7 102112

()

(%)

102 3,395.7

4,118.2 3,990.9 17.5% 103 3,482.1 () 1~7 8.50 4,092.2 1.70 3,995.1 14.7%

#3 1 0.00 1.29

() 2,7 1.84 0.11

CCGT#4 6 2.80 2.74

7 0.00 -1.32

(#1,#2 ) 9 -60.00 -48.20

( I) 12 0.50 0.10

12 13.10 1.27

11 12 2.70 1.05

104 3,602.6 1 10.00 4,051.4 0.60 3,975.0 10.3%

1 1.50 0.09

1 24.00 4.80

1 0.20 0.10

1 0.15 0.10

3.6*10MW 1 0.00 3.60

7 0.00 6.81

(#3~4 ) 10 -0.10 -0.08

( cc#1~#3 ) 11 -76.38 -74.85

(#4 ) 12 -0.03 -0.01

(#5 ) 12 -0.11 -0.06

105 3,732.2 1 10.00 4,122. 0.60 3,982.3 6.7%

1 24.80 4.96

1 0.30 0.15

1 0.20 0.10

1 0.20 0.13

#1 1 80.00 75.20

1 0.80 36.80

7 0.00 8.61

(#3~4 ) 7 -75.00 -71.12

(#5 ) 7 -50.00 -48.30

#1 7 80.00 75.20

#6 12 0.15 0.13

106 3,846.0 1 10.00 4,309.1 0.60 4,144.4 7.8%

1 0.10 0.05

1 25.00 5.00

1 0.40 0.20

1 0.25 0.13

1 0.20 0.13

#2 1 80.00 75.20

#7 6 0.15 0.13

#3~4 6 0.30 0.26

7 0.00 5.02

#2 7 80.00 75.20

(#3~4 ) 10 -0.10 -0.08

cc#1 10 89.26 87.47

(#1~2 ) 11 -100.00 -97.00

(#5 ) 12 -0.05 -0.04

#5~6 12 0.77 0.65

11 103 100MW 210MW

1MW 1MW 10302 7

103 12

31

3-7 102112 1

()

(%)

107 3,943.5 1 8.00 4,280.7 0.48 4,145.7 5.1%

1 0.20 0.10

1 25.00 5.00

1 1.50 0.75

1 0.25 0.13

1 0.20 0.13

7 0.00 3.70

(#1 ) 12 -63.60 -61.89

(#1 ) 12 0.00 -3.82

108 4,017.7 1 7.00 4,531.4 0.42 4,189.0 4.3%

1 20.50 1.23

1 0.40 0.19

1 26.00 5.20

1 1.30 0.65

1 0.25 0.13

1 0.20 0.13

cc#2 4 89.26 87.47

#3~4 6 0.20 0.17

7 0.00 4.05

(#2 ) 7 -63.60 -61.99

(#2 ) 7 0.00 -3.82

#3 7 80.00 75.20

cc#3 10 89.26 87.47

109 4,084.8 1 3.60 4,478.5 0.22 4,289.7 5.0%

1 10.00 0.60

1 0.40 0.19

1 27.00 5.40

1 3.00 1.50

1 0.25 0.13

1 0.30 0.20

7 0.00 4.96

(#1~3 ) 11 -3.13 -2.40

(#1~4 ) 11 -3.16 -2.48

(#1,4 ) 11 -14.00 -13.94

( cc#4~#5 ) 11 -77.20 -75.65

110 4,148.2 1 10.00 4,968.0 0.60 4,738.6 14.2%

1 35.00 7.00

1 1.40 0.70

1 0.31 0.16

1 0.30 0.20

#1~6(*5+*1) 1 540.00 529.20

#9 4 1.00 0.85

#10 7 1.00 0.85

7 0.00 3.83

(#4 ) 11 -1.04 -0.80

(#1 ) 12 -98.50 -98.84

(#1 ) 12 0.00 -3.92

32

3-7 102112 2

()

(%)

111 4,209.1 1 20.00 5,202.7 1.20 4,826.2 14.7%

1 37.00 7.40

1 1.60 0.80

1 0.31 0.16

1 0.40 0.26

#7~8(*1+*1) 1 180.00 176.40

#11 4 1.00 0.85

#12 7 1.00 0.85

7 0.00 3.22

(#5~10 ) 11 -6.60 -5.92

112 4,264.8 1 4.90 5,297.6 4.17 4,912.6 15.2%

1 30.00 1.80

1 0.10 0.05

1 39.00 7.80

1 1.90 0.95

1 0.31 0.16

1 0.30 0.20

#9~10(*2) 1 180.00 176.40

(#2 ) 3 -98.50 -98.92

(#2 ) 3 0.00 -3.92

7 0.00 3.67

(#5~10 ) 11 -2.20 -1.97

(#5~8 ) 11 -3.30 -2.59

( cc#1~2 ) 11 -57.76 -54.60

#8 12 0.15 0.13

1. 103

2.

33

NIMBY

8