© crown copyright met office wgne activities and plans andy brown and christian jakob wgne...

© Crown copyright Met Office

WGNE activities and plansAndy Brown and Christian Jakob

WGNE co-chairs


Role of WGNE

• Working Group on Numerical Experimentation

• Jointly established by the WCRP and the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS)

• Responsibility of fostering the development of atmospheric circulation models for use in weather prediction and climate studies on all time scales and diagnosing and resolving shortcomings.

• A distillation of the Terms of Reference…..

• Advice, liaison

• Co-ordinated experiments

• Workshops, publications, meetings


Liaison


• WWRP: YOTC/MJO, grey-zone project with Mesoscale WG, Joint Working Group on Verification

• THORPEX: PDP workshops, DAOS

• WGCM : Transpose-AMIP, metrics, model errors

• GEWEX (GCSS, GABLS, GLASS): MJO, grey-zone

• SPARC and WGSIP: stratospheric modelling? model errors?

• Operational centre reports and progress reviews


Co-ordinated experiments and projects


• Transpose-AMIP GOOD PROGRESS

• SURFA DATA FROM MORE CENTRES

• Grey-zone NEW

• Cloudy-radiance DONE

• High resolution AMIP ?

• Verification

• NWP performance (eg TCs, precipitation) ONGOING

• Polar (CBS-style; ConcordIASI intercomparsion) NEW

• Climate metrics GOOD PROGRESS


Transpose-AMIP: testing climate models in NWP mode

• Core experiment is to run 64 hindcasts, each 5 days long, initialised from ECMWF YOTC analysis.

• Optional experiment to repeat the same set of hindcasts with NASA MERRA re-analysis or own analysis.

• The hindcasts spread through the annual and diurnal cycles and chosen to tie in with YOTC and coincide with some of the IOPs in:

• VOCALS (SE Pacific stratocumulus)• AMY (Asian monsoon)• T-PARC (mid-latitude Pacific)

• 9 centres committed to submit data

© Crown copyright Met Office www.transpose-amip.info

Proposed diagnostic subprojects

• MJO dynamics in the Transpose-AMIP II hindcasts: (PI: Mitch Moncrieff)

• Water budget analysis (PI: Gill Martin)

• Comparison of methodologies (initial tendency using own analysis vs 5-day forecast using alien analysis) (PI: Mark Rodwell)

• Cloud regimes (PI: Keith Williams)

• Intense extra-tropical windstorms (PI: Peter Knippertz)

• Relationship between short and long timescale model errors (PI: Shaocheng Xie)

• Regional investigation into model tendencies (PI: TBD)

• VOCALS analysis (PI: TBD)

• 2009 SE Asian monsoon analysis (PI: TBD)

• More desirable – valuable database to be used alongside TIGGE etc. PDP interest?


SURFA

• Real-time provision of ECMWF and DWD data for several years

• Within last year, JMA, Meteo-France data added for 2008 and 2009

• Ge Peng et al, A comparison of various equatorial Pacific surface wind products. For submission to GRL.


Planned comparison of models with buoy and cruise flux data (Chris Fairall)

• STRATUS/DART 2 buoys, Chilean coast (+ cruise data)

• NTAS N. Atlantic Trade wind (+cruises planned)

• WHOTS Hawaii (+cruises planned)

• KEO Kuroshio Extension

• PAPA NW Pacific

Cloudy infrared radiances: Intercomparison exercise

Sponsored by ISSWG and WGNE

Coordinators: Lydie Lavanant, Florence Rabier

Contributors: Arlindo Arriaga, Thomas August, Sylvain Cros, Nadia Fourrié, Antonia Gambacorta, Sylvain Heilliette, Fiona Hilton, Min-Jeong Kim, Tony McNally, Hidenori

Nishihata, Ed Pavelin, Ben Ruston, Claudia Stubenrauch

12

Comparison of IASI Cloud Products for cloudy radiance assimilation

Rationale:IASI data for temperature and humidity sounding are now assimilated in

clear conditions at many operational meteorological centres.

However, a large amount of situations, more than 80% on the whole globe, are covered by clouds.

The first step is to detect and characterize the clouds in the footprint of the sounder.

Experimental settings:All methods are applied to a 12-h global acquisition on 18 Nov. 2009.

13

First results over the globe

The grey color corresponds to clear situations or undetermined cloud heights.

The main meteorological structures have been retrieved by all the schemes but the cloud heights can be very different.


Grey zone project


How to parametrize physical processes in the “grey-zone” (1-10km)?

• Of interest to

• Operational mesoscale NWP

• Many already running at resolutions of a few km but room for more systematic testing to complement existing assessments of parametrization choices?

• Future global models

• What to do as global models enter this range?

• Regional climate models


12/10/00 flood event Peak rainfall rates within 60x60km squares over 12 hours 4km gridlength forecasts

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

mm/hour

No convection scheme With convection scheme CAPE dependent

Too high Too low Closer to

radar

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

mm/hour

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

mm/hour

Example of testing of existing 4km convection closure


Convection closure

• 4km CAPE limited CAPE closure

• 1.5km No convection scheme

• Both models add significant value to coarser models (surface forcing; shower advection)

• Convection decisions based on case-studies / verification scores

• Role for idealized work to supplement case study / verification work (metrics need care)


Proposed case: cold-air outbreak

• Designed to be relevant to and to engage as broad a range of communities as possible

• Mesoscale modellers

• Global modellers

• LES/CRM/parametrization development community (GCSS)

• Case to be run across whole range of resolutions (from convection resolved to fully parametrized)

• Back diagnose fluxes at different resolutions from high resolution ‘truth’

• Idealized case with periodic boundary conditions

• Looking at parallel inflow-outflow option for mesoscale models for which the above is difficult


CONSTRAIN: Cold air CONSTRAIN: Cold air outbreak 31 Jan 2010outbreak 31 Jan 2010


Dx=333m333kmx167km


Aside: Interest also for existing global models (weather and climate)

Williams et alIllingworth et al.

ISCCP analysis Cloudnet


Workshops, publications, meetings


WGNE-THORPEX PDP

Joint expert meeting on “Diagnosis of Forecast Errors” held in Zurich, July 2010

State of the art models still suffer from substantial errors

Diagnostic work (+dynamical expertize) has potential to inform developers at process level to guide development

Future activities on application of diagnostic techniques to monsoon problems and cyclonic systems

ECMWF/Met Office working together on monsoon and planning to extend invitation, through WGNE, for input from other centres when work sufficiently mature

WGNE/PDP/ECMWF workshop on model error, June 2011


Other forthcoming meetings

YOTC Science Symposium (Beijing, May 2011)

Annual WGNE meeting (NCAR, October 2011)

Joint session with WGCM

Physics of weather/climate models (JPL, Spring 2012)

With WWRP, WCRP partners

Oceans for NWP (2012?)

Planning joint workshop with GODAE/OceanView to look at current knowledge of pros/cons of ocean coupling for NWP, and consider need for co-ordinated experimentation

Aerosol/chemistry for NWP (2013?)

As above for question of what level of aerosol/chemistry is necessary for NWP. Need to engage with GAW community.

WGNE systematic errors meeting (2013?)


Summary

WGNE hosts a wide range of activities in support of model evaluation and development.

Enhanced collaboration with WWRP/THORPEX.

Meso-scale group, THORPEX PDP and DAOS, YOTC, JWGV, ...

Enhanced links to WCRP (SPARC, WGCM, WGSIP)

Model and DA development remains at the heart of better forecasts at all ranges and needs to remain a high priority!


Membership changes

• Outgoing

• Pedro Silva Dias

• Pierre Gaultier

• Jim Hack

• Martin Miller

• Proposed new members

• Julio Bacmeister

• Saulo Freitas

• Jean-Noel Thepaut

• Ayrton Zadra

• Proposed ex-officio membership

• WWRP Mesoscale WG Chair (Jeanette Onvlee)


Questions?

© crown copyright met office wgne activities and plans andy brown and christian jakob wgne...

Documents

alien analysis pi

tbd vocals analysis

model tendencies pi

analysis vs

ecmwf yotc analysis

long timescale model

iasi data

mark rodwellcloud regimes