CHAPTER VI

VOTING BEHAVIOUR

The electoral study is very pertinent to India which is the largest democracy in the

world. India’s Constitution-Makers adopted the system o f parliamentary government as best

suited to the genius of the people. A parliamentary government is sustained by electorate

casting its votes freely at periodic General elections to choose between candidates normally

representing rival political parties. The party which wins (or is able to command the support

of) a majority of seats in the legislature in a General election forms the government.

The Indian constitution specifically lays down that the council of Ministers in the

Union shall be the collectively responsible to the House o f the people (Lok Sabha) and

the council o f Ministers in a state shall be collectively responsible to the Legislative

Assembly o f the state The elections to the Lok Sabha and every state Legislative

Assembly are direct and on the basis o f adult suffrage : every Indian citizen- male and

female who is not less than 18 years of age is entitled to vote at any such elections.

The choice of the government thus vests ultimately in the voters, for the government is

answerable to the electorate through the Lok Sabha (at the centre) and the state Legislative

Assembly (in a state)

The constitution lays down that there shall be one general electoral roll for every

territorial constituency; the preparation of electoral rolls based on religion, race, caste or sex

is forbidden. The electoral rolls for a constituency ( Parliamentary or Assembly)shall contain

the names of all the persons eligible to vote at an election in that constituency. The

preparation and maintenance of complete and accurate electoral rolls are essential pre­

requisites for the holding of elections. The electoral roll is divided into convenient

numbered parts, according to areas or localities.

The electoral process has certain essential components. These may be candidatures,

franchise, method and techniques of election etc. The candidate is a person offering

himself or herself, for the suffrage o f the elections. He or she is normally a member of one

of the political parties contesting an election and is chosen by the party organization. A person

may also stand as an Independent with or without the backing of any political party

115

Franchise is the important step in any system of election. Ever since elections have

been known there has been an experiment of franchise. Franchise may defined simply as

the ‘right’ or “eligibility” to vote. The natural rights theory regards all men and women

equal and free hence all should be entitled to the right of franchise equally.

For the purpose of holding elections, the country or the state is usually divided

into a number of electoral districts which may or may not correspond with the

administrative divisions. These electoral districts are known as “constituencies”

Election plays a key role at the scale of ideology in channeling conflicts safely

into constitutional arenas Hence one needs to consider electoral geography but not

necessarily in its usual form Electoral geography has come to include' geographical

analysis of referendum, votes in international, national, and regional bodies. Electoral

geography is the study of the spatial voting patterns or voting behaviour or the study of

the spatial distribution of political phenomenon of voting in different elections. Vote cast

are measures of attitude, perceptions and biases o f electorates. When vote return are

mapped, the resulting distributions give indications o f place to place or region to region or

constituency to constituency difference in voting behaviour. The goal o f most studies seems

to be nothing more than understanding the particular situation under consideration. If a

state is considered a study area, the constituencies (constituency may be Parliamentary,

Legislative State Assembly, Panchayat etc.); within the state are spatially distributed ‘unit

areas’. Each constituency has unique spatial location.

The correlation technique is used to compare one set of measure with another In

voting behaviour research, the concern it with “why the voters for a candidate are

distributed over a space and time in the manner shown in a map. The map being explain

the spatial distribution of votes The voter’s turn out are the “dependent variable” for (he

correlation model. That is why, they vary one piace to another or one time to another,

dependent on socio-economic variables like age, sex, religion, caste, ethnicity, literacy, place

of birth, marital status, nature o f family and income, ideas and aspiration o f the voters and

the political considerations he makes final expression in his decision to cast vote for a

particular candidate. The analysis begins with the selection of a second measure like age,

sex, religion, literacy, caste etc. that may explain the spatial distribution of voters’ turn

out The second measure is called ‘independent variable’.

I'lie area! variation in social and economic class, religion, nationality and race were

among the prime factors which have important bearing o f voting pattern..Using such

methods easy to explain the foundation of voting patterns, for whole states or

constituencies and able to predict how pattern would change franchise altered or as

migration occurred

The study of voting behaviour is highly promising in three ways. First, the act of

voting itself is considered as an overt form o f political participation and objective

manifestation o f the political make-up o f the voters. Each voter projects his ideology,

political orientation, judgement and attitude and expectations is an effort to identify the

most viable o f the alternatives. Second, the account of election results objectively shows

the numerical strength of the various political forces struggling for power and dominance

in the constituency/state/country. Third, and final, the voting preference can be used as a

check against the 'hiding o f truth’ tendency among the respondents their ideologies and

political attitudes.

Influencing Factors Behind the Trends and Patterns in State Assembly Elections

An analysis o f the voting pattern in the Assam State Legislative Assembly elections

revealed that several factors have directly influenced the voting behaviour o f the electorates

since the first Assembly election in 1952.

Geographical Influence o f Voting

There are four basic processes that may lead to local influence on voting decision •

I “Candidate voting or friends - and - neighbours effect”, which have commonly been

found to occur in the Legislative Assembly elections in Assam. Friends - and -

neighbour effect makes a particular contextual effect in electoral geography,

whereby voters favour local candidates. Some models o f the effect associate it with

the spatial diffusion o f information about candidates away from their home area, so

that election result displays a density gradient o f support around a candidate

homes, i e. support decreases progressively with distance from their homes

2. Since 1952 Legislative Assembly elections, issues are multiple and have a wide

coverage in their aspects Before focusing the issues highlighted by the different

political parties, it is imperative to understand the political arrangement of different

117

political groups who contested the election. “Issue voting” occurs where a particular

topic in an election is of more importance to some areas than others

3 “Campaign effects” reflects the differential influence o f the campaign. A great

variety o f issues, national and local got prominence in the campaign meetings In

different Legislative Assembly elections in Assam , the election meeting influenced

the electorates voting behaviour in some constituencies.

4. “The neighbourhood effect” is the most studied geographical influence in voting

The neighbourhood effect is form a local social influence. In the caste

consciousness Assamese society, the neighbourhood effects plays the most decisive

role in the voting decision o f the people. The neighbourhood effect postulates the

following process : For any individual in an election campaign there are two

sources o f information. The general information from the ‘mass media’ available to

eveiybody and the particular information derived from ‘local contacts’ General

information will go through partisan filter in the voting decision making processes

The result will be that “all” classes living in working class areas (Urban area or

Industrial areas) will be more likely to vote for the “natural party” o f the area

and “all” classes living in middle class areas will be more likely vote for the

“natural” party o f that area.

Apart from the above four basic processes there is one more process predominant in

Assam This process may be called “process o f relocation effect”, which also leads to

geographical influence of voting decisions, ft is the migration of the people which creates

the relocation effect and which does have certain decisive effects on the voting decisions

Voting habits in most o f the constituencies in char areas and immigrants areas o f Lower

and Central Assam have been largely motivated by the relocation effect, largely as a

result o f the relocation o f Bangladeshi immigrants in these constituencies

Influence of Some Demographic Variables on Voting

(i) Regional Disparities in VotingRegional disparities in the direction of voting behaviour was found in most of the

electoral studies conducted India and abroad. Each state / region / constituency had its own

118

peculiarity with regard to its socio-economic and political complexion which on their own

have tremendous impact on the political attitude and political behaviour of the individual

For example in 1985 Legislative Assembly election in Assam, the newly formed regional

parties the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) was acquired a considerably large share o f votes

from the Brahmaputra valley while the Indian National Congress (INC) acquired a

considerably large share of votes from the Barak plain. Although AGP monopolized over

the voters o f Assamese speaking community in the Brahmaputra valley in 1985 Assembly

election, but Indian National Congress received proportionately a majority o f votes from all

the regions.

(ii) Rural /Urban Distribution o f Voting Pattern

Another of regional stability is the pattern of established by the conflict between

Urban and Rural interests. People of urban areas have different voting habits from those

in rural areas for many reasons. The source of income is the most important rural-urban

differences even more important than amount o f income and that intrinsically reflects in

voting behaviour. Other rural-urban differences includes most of the variables commonly

associated with voting “age5' - average ages in urban areas are lower than the rural areas,

females in urban areas participate in election whereas the rural women dissociate

themselves from voting. Level of average number o f school years completed are generally

higher in urban areas than in rural areas, average incomes are higher in urban areas rather

than m the rural areas. These differences cause differences in attitudes that are manifested

in voting behaviour.

(Hi) Socio-Economic Status and Voting Pattern

A good number o f studies have suggested that “class” is a major determinant of

voting behaviour if no other cleavage happens to be salient. Establishment o f casteless

society is an established and pronounced goal o f every major political party. But the same

time, caste and caste system is very much well rooted in socio-economic and political

structure o f our society. Today a series of problem with which people are faced is as to

what is the relationship o f caste and politics in Assam. Is the hold o f caste on politics to

weakening ? It is the caste exerting its heavy pressure on politics o f Assam ? When caste

became active and influencing factor in political life and voting behaviour then these lose

their character Similarly when caste take part in the labour movement or in trade

119

unionism, they then still retain their character as caste. These are some of the serious

problems which face people today in so fur caste and politics are concerned.

The predominant feature o f the social structure in Assam is the caste system. The

caste system is its most general but a fundamental aspect is an descriptive system of status

and hierarchy. It is purposive and ail embracing and is known for controlling defining all

social, economic and political relationships for the individual.

Tire other socio-economic variables like age, sex, religion, language, literacy, place of

birth, marital status and income also closely connected with the voting pattern.

Geography of Voter Participation in Assam

Political participation is the process through which the individual plays certain

political roles in a society. A political role is the pattern o f behaviour which

characteristics one’s political activities It embodies different forms, levels and degree of

intensity. A significant proportion o f electorates who were politically “very active” came

from Upper middle class. Making a dichotomy between political active and inactive was

found that about 74 per cent o f electorates o f upper class and upper middle class are

active. Conversely more than 80 per cent of politically inactive electorates were identified

from middle and lower class categories About 57 per cent o f males and urban

population were active in politics and against 10 per cent o f the female and about 20 per

cent o f rural population. No election is meaningful unless the people participate in it There

is considerable spatial variation in the voter participation in the state. It may be very high

in some constituencies and very low in some other constituencies Even within a constituency

itself significant spatial variations in the turn out can be seen. It is particularly true in the

Parliamentary constituency wherein different Assembly segments usually witness marked

spatial variations in voter participation

There are many factors which account for the differences in voting participation

from place to place. Even there is differences in the male-female participation. Surveys and

election data have shown that men arc more likely to vote than women This is true not

only in the state of Assam but also in the other states in India. In Muslim dominated

constituencies o f Assam voter participation is more than Hindu dominated constituencies.

Political aspect is the main reason behind the high percentage o f voters’ turn out in Muslim

120

dominated constituencies. It has been observed that constituency with homogenous

population (homogeneity o f religion, race, ethnicity, language, social custom and tradition

etc.) register relatively higher voter participation than those which have heterogeneous

population. Lack of literacy among the voters o f Assam in some constituencies also stands

in the way o f the participation o f election. In some constituencies, the voters’ turn out is

extremely low because of the lack of political maturity and political consciousness among

the electorates that they fail to realized the political significance o f the right Sometimes

ignorance on the part o f the electors leads to considerable variation in the turn out As

for example, ignorancy is the prime factors behind the low turn out in tribal dominated

constituencies o f Assam. Distance to polling station/polling booths is another factor,

causing to the voters’ turn out difference. In every elections the districts o f Karbi-Anglong

and North Cachar Hills district voters’ turn out is very low comparison to all Assam voters’

turn out due to long distance to polling stations There are many more factors for

differences in voter participation in Assam. Thus, there is Geography o f voter

participation.

Socio-political situation of a region also responsible for the variation o f voters’

turn out. As for example the State Legislative Assembly and the Parliamentary elections of

Assam 1983, was extra-ordinary for its timing, for its conduct and less participation o f voter

in the election process. A kind o f fear psychosis was generated in the minds of people of

Assam , so that they felt safe by keeping away from elections. In 16 Assembly

constituencies poll had been adjourned. The percentage o f voters’ tum out was only 32.74

percent. In 29 Assembly constituencies the percentage o f vote poll was been one per

cent to 10 percent. In many polling stations of the Brahmaputra valley, not a single ballot

paper was inserted in the ballot boxes and empty ballot boxes were submitted by the

polling officials to election officers. Needless to say that the 1983 elections was in practice

a non-election and therefore no case for the study o f voting behaviour. In Assam

percentage of voter participation highly increases from 1985 Legislative Assembly

elections. In India, if the tum out approaches or exceeds 90 per cent it then assumed that

malpractices, such as rigging and booth capturing have occurred. In Assam, such situation

occurred in some constituencies after 1985 elections.

In Assam, voter participation comparatively is more than the all India averages of

voter participation since the 1952 Legislative Assembly elections in spite o f widespread

12!

illiteracy and ignorance Both “constant” or “long term” influences and “situational”

influences have been affecting in voters’ participations in Assam since 1952 General

election. The factor which motivates an individual to cast his or her vote is “constant or

long-term” motivation. On the other hand “situational” motivation occurs during only one

particular election. In the constant motivations includes the voter general interest in political

matters, consciousness, sense of duty or commitment to particular political party which is

contesting the election, and loyalty to particular political ideology which the party is

carrying forward. It is Marxist philosophy which has been, for long, motivating the

Religious minority voter to vote the Congress in different elections o f Assam Until 1978

Legislative Assembly elections constant or long-term influence predominant among the

minds of the people of Assam. Up to 1972 Legislative Assembly elections in Assam most

of electorates caste their votes in favour o f the Indian National Congress party. It was a

“long term” or “constant influence”.

Another motivational factor for the individual that may occur once situation is

dependent on the circumstances o f a particular election. Possibly there is one issue or one

candidate that the person feels strongly about - so strongly that he will make an extreme

effort to vote for or against the issue or candidate. During the 1977 parliamentary election

in India the long-term or the constant influence to a particular political party (i.e. Indian

National Congress) was changed in the minds o f the people of India after nearly 19

months of “Emergency” (declared on June 26, 1975) This was a “situational influence” It

may be the only time some people ever vote, or it may be occur numerous times.

Possibly the individual voter knows the political party or the candidates personally, but

whatever circumstances, there are elections that are special interest to some individuals

This kind o f situational influence was clearly conspicuous among the voters’ mind in the

1978, 1983, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Legislative Assembly elections in Assam.

In the 1978 Assembly election, there was the “emergency issue” that motivated the

electorates of Assam to vote against the Indian National Congress Party, in the 1983

Assembly election it was the “foreign national” issue that motivated the electorates to

boycott the all election process or in the 1985 Assembly election it was the “Assam

Accord” and “All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) wave”, that motivated the electorates of

Assam (specially in the Brahmaputra valley) to vote the “Asom Gana Parishad” (AGP) and

the “United Minority Front” (UMF). At the 1985 Assembly election, two new

122regional parties called Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and the “United Minority Front”

(UMF) were formed, the former representing the majority Assamese Community generally

and the latter Muslim and other minorities. The AGP was the product o f the Assam

Movements and the political Child o f All Assam Student’s Union and AH Assam Gana

Sangram Parishad. The UMF on the other hand was formed with the intension of

countering the programme and politics o f AGP concerning “Assam Accord”. People in,

mostly those belongings to the Assamese speaking Hindus, voted in enbloc to the AGP in

1985 Assembly election because o f safeguard o f their language, culture and identity from

foreign infiltration

The situational motivations that affect groups of people could include the campaign

excitement promoted by particular candidate and the particular political party. Debates

between rival political parties on the electronic media before the elections usually

generated much interest in that election, leading to unusually high voter participation. The

election campaign effect and the debates of rival political parties also associated with the

high voter participation in Assam. Also, particular issues, especially those related to social

tension, economic problem, insurgency problem, disturbed law and other situation,

corruption, unemployment etc., affect people directly, and can generated unusual interest,

resulting in the high voter participation turnout in 1985, 1991, 1996, and 2001 Assembly

elections in Assam (Fig. 6.1). Lowering o f voter age from 21 years to 18 years has

already affected the turn out in all over India. The number o f voters has increased which

have also led to an increase in turnout. (Table6.1).

T ab le-6 .1

Trend of Electorates in Assam (1952-2001)Year Total electorates/voters

1952 49,29,0041957 53,68,1311962 47,42,8161967 55,85,056\912 62,96,1981978 79,74,3951983 86,55,0561985 98,83,3041991 1,18,92,0681996 1,25,85,7122001 1,44,26,221

Source: Slate Election Report (2001)

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Voter’s turnout or voter participation in different Assembly elections (from 1952-

2001) in Assam is not homogeneous. Voter participation in General elections in the state

had been increased from one General election to another General election. Above 50 per

cent of electorates exercised franchise in all the General elections excepting the 1957 and

1983 Legislative Assembly elections in Assam, However, in the 1985 Assembly elections

record number of voters (78 6 per cent) of the electorates participated (Table 6.2).

124

Table-6.2

Voter’s Turnout in the Assembly Elections in Assam ( 1952 -2001)

Year of election

Total voters Total votes polled

Votesrejected

Percentage of votes rejected

Valid votes Polled

Percentage of votes polled

1952 49,29,044 25,04,179 55,289 2.2 24,48,890 50.00

1957 53,68,138 25,60,704 36,734 1 4 25,23,970 47 7

1962 47,42,816 26,08,483 1,64,327 6.3 24,44,161 55.0

1967 55,85,056 33,69,249 2,62,065 7.8 31,07,184 60 3

1972 62,96,198 38,49,821 1,36,051 3.5 37,13,700 61 8

1978 79,74,395 53,31,402 1,66,150 3.1 51,65,252 66.8

1983 86,55,056 28,30,203 62,264 2.2 27,67,939 32.7

1985 98,83,304 77,69,233 4,06,436 5.2 73,62,797 78.6

1991 1,18,92,068 88,01,776 5,14,287 5.8 82,87,489 74,0

1996 1,25,85,712 95,64,434 4,71,663 4.9 90,92,800 76.0

2001 1,44,26,221 98,21,305 2,95,160 3.1 95,26,145 68.0

Source .Compiled from State Election Reports (2001)

Regional Realignments o f Political Parties and Political Decision o f Voter

Regional stability or regional instability may occur in voting patterns. As for

example voters in West Bengal have voted the Left Front with overwhelming majority in

the six successive Assembly elections, which were held in 1977, 1982, 1987, 1996 and

2001 Voting patterns established in 1977 in the West Bengal have persisted to this day.

Similarly, in Assam, the Assamese voters had always expressed their loyalties to the

Congress party up to 1972 Legislative Assembly elections and also there was an

125

extraordinary stability in the regional voting patterns in the state up to 1972 Assembly

elections If we see the district wise stability of voting patterns in Assam, the voters of

the Dibrugarli district have always expressed their loyalties to the Congress party since First

Legislative Assembly election in Assam

Another form of regional stability is the pattern established by the conflict between

urban and rural interest. People o f urban areas have different voting behaviour from those

in rural areas for many reasons. Most urban dwellers have income from salaries, whereas

village dwellers cam income from what they produce. The source of income is the most

important rural-urban differences and this difference reflects in the voting behaviour. Other

rural-urban differences in voting behaviour include population composition like age, sex,

level of education etc The regional stability depends on (a) the homogeneity o f the area

(b) inherited vote (c) the committed voters (d) the common interests of the people o f the

area (e) loyalty to one political philosophy. But in Assam due to some socio-economic,

demographic and political reasons change its political make-up and largely impact on

regional stability Regional stability in voting behaviour is mostly in a bi-party system,

whereas in a multi-party system like India, it is not a common phenomenon.

Regions tend to remain politically stable, but they can change one partisan loyalty

to another Usually, the change is gradual, but it can occur from one election to another

election. Once an elected representative takes office, however, his constituency is more or

less “stuck” with him until the next election. Regional realignment means the change in the

voting habits or voting behaviour o f a region or a state. It occurs mostly as a result of

(a) migration into an area (migration may be Intra-national or International), (b) conflict in

political philosophies from which particular candidates or political parties benefit, (c)

localism, (d) communal and caste cleavages , (e) linguistic cleavages and (f) groups of

people not confined to a particular regional changing loyalties from one political party to

another political party. All o f these are potential factors for changing regional realignment in

Assam. Of course, there are other reasons for regions to experience political changes ,such as

changes in political perceptions, increase in their political maturity and consciousness, the

neighbourhood effect and changes in economics etc also responsible for the change of

voting habits in Assam since 1985 Assembly elections. Realignment is the most common

electoral phenomenon in Assam A curious features of Indian politics as it is developing

126

since (he 1967 General election, is possibility of changing policies by the political parties

in power or out of power after elections without reference to voters. This type of changing

politics was also introduced since 1978 Legislative Assembly election in Assam

The first national / regional level realignment in the voting habits in Assam occurred

in 1977 parliamentary election, when people voted the non-congress parties to power. The

traditional Congress votes went to the non-Congress parties effecting a major change in the

regional voting behaviour Since then change became a more common phenomenon in the

election scenario in India. It was in 1978 that the first realignment occurred at the state

level when the people o f Assam voted the Janata party to power. Nevertheless, the change

was more common in the Brahmaputra valley rather than in the other regions o f the state

Realignment also occurred in Assam in 1985, 1991, 1996 and 2001 Assembly elections,

Assam witnessed four realignments during 1985-2001, the first occurred in 1985, when the

people voted the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), the second realignments occurred in the

year 1991 Assembly election when the voters favoured the Indian National Congress (I),

in the year 1996 Assembly election a new coalition called the AGP - Communist coalition

was voted to power and again in the year 2001 Assembly election, people of Assam

voted in favour o f Indian National Congress (1). In 2001 Assembly election, people of

Assam rejected the AGP-BJP alignments. One o f the major realignments in the Assam

electoral politics, in the 2001 Assembly election, has been that o f the Assamese speaking

Hindus having switched over their loyalty to the Indian National Congress (I). Large scale

Bangladeshi immigration to Lower Assam had its impact on the voting behaviour in the

region. They expressed their loyalty to the political party which did not oppose to their

immigration (Fig. 6.2 & 6 3).

Individual migrants tend to change their attitudes to conform to their new areas but

when large number o f peoples with similar political perceptions move into an area they

can “overwhelm” the local political attitudes. Thus regional alignment can be caused by

migration, but peculiar circumstances are necessaiy, such as the isolation of new arrivals

through discrimination or the movement o f large number of people into previously

uninhabited areas

The first and foremost issue raised by Asom Gana Parishad what that o f a foreign

nationals who should be detected and deported as per the terms of the “Assam Accord”

127

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the Indian National Congress (I) keep silence about the issues raised In the \<il‘

Hence, the minority groups (specially Muslims and Hindu Bengalis) expiessed then

loyalties to the Indian National Congress in Assam after 1985 Assembly election^

The immigrants are in absolute majority in eight o f the 15 Assembly constituencies

in the district o f Dluibri, Bongaigaon and Goalpara. In five more constituencies (lies are

numerous enough to be crucial for an electoral victory. There is similar transformation m

the Barpeta, Darrang, Kariinganj, llailakandi and Nagaon districts o f Assam People rame

to feel that certain national political parties having vested interests in the foieigneis vokw

their “ vote banks' - were responsible for stalling the process o f detection o f foreigners l>\

raising the bogey o f “harassment o f Indian citizens".

Geography of Representation

Ihe geography o f representation has been a particularly fruitful area ol eiagine m

countries that use a plurality system of voting such as USA and Britain in tins

system a candidate is elected to a Legislature on the basis o f obtaining most voles m an

electoral district

Geography of representation has been concerned with the 'districting problems

This states that different patterns o f electoral district boundaries will produce ditleieni

election results in terms o f Legislative seats “ even if the underlying pattern of voting

remains the same" Since there are many different ways o f dividing up an area into a

given number o f electoral districts, it follows that there are many different results eveni it

it hold the actual voting constant. This has led to two types o f electoial abuse

reapportionment and gerrymandering. In the former case districts o f different population are

designed to favour one political party over another. However, it is gerrymandering which

has been the main concern o f recent research since it has been shown that election iesu11v

can be easily manipulated without any need to resort to malappointment Gerrymandering

involves drawing the boundaries o f electoral districts in such a way that favours one pam

or candidate over another. The spatial manipulation o f votes through constiiuencv

delimitation is known as “electoral abused" which is based on the underlying concepi nt

“electoral bias". Electoral bias is measured as the difference between the peicentaee "i

seats o f a party wins and the percentage o f votes polled in their favour

130

In the case of reapportionment, the districts of different population are designed to

favour one party over another. The most common form that this takes is to favour

nirai areas and hence political parties with rural support, which have been found in some

districts o f Assam. A stacked gerrymander for instance, is one in which an opposing

party’s votes are largely concentrated in just one or two districts which they win with a

large majority, but which leaves them with few votes and therefore seats elsewhere. The

general idea is to make votes as affective as possible in winning seats while wasting the

other party’s votes either in surpluses in large majorities or else in losing district. There

are many examples of this abuse in the Assam Legislative Assembly elections since 1978.

Interpreting the State Elections and Determinants of Voting Behaviour

After every election to parliament or State Legislature, these goes on an exercise

within the political parties and their leaders and by the press and the public to interpret

the outcome of the results. Like the poll surveys and the forecasts, the interpretations also

widely vary underlying the exercise is the belief that there is some reason, some logic or

at least some thinking behind the voting pattern. Election surveys and analysis have

brought in usage certain terms - some applicable and some inappropriate.

In the present study before the examining the socio-economic status factors like

Age and voting preference, Religion and voting preference, Caste and voting preference,

Language and voting preference, Rural-urban disparity and voting preference, Sex and

voting preference. Territorial mobility and voting preference, Income and voting preference,

Occupational status and voting preference, etc. researcher also examined how political

factors like candidate orientation, issue orientation and party identification of the voters

had influenced their voting preferences in Assembly elections, 2001' in Assam.

Candidate Orientation

In Assam where the Indian National Congress had been the dominant party until

1977, the party rather than the candidate was perhaps the most vital factor influencing the

voter’s choice in the earlier Lok Sabha and State Assembly elections in Assam. This trend

reappeared in 1983, 1991 and 2001 Assembly elections when INC (I) party swept these

elections Under such a situation, candidate orientation o f the voters as a political factor

has the least influence in the voter’s choice

In 2001 when the Assembly election in Assam was scheduled, the political

atmosphere in the state had many important trends like anti-AGP wave, the spate of

secret killing, insurgency problem done by ultra outfits etc. Under such an atmosphere of

uncertainty as to which party would form the Government, the voter was supposed to have

a wide range of choice o f candidates and hence candidate orientation might have

influenced the choice o f voting to certain degree.

In order to ascertain the extend o f candidate orientation that might have taken

some form in the 2001 Assembly election, researcher put a number o f questions to the

respondents viz., (i) “Do you know the names o f the candidates who contested the 2001

Assembly election in your constituency”?, (ii) “How many candidates had during the

campaign personally approached you”? (iii) “Did agents of any candidates solicit your vote

for their candidates”? and (iv) “Did you exercise franchise because your vote was sought

for personally by the candidates or by their agents”? There had two fold intention in

putting these questions to the respondents.

(1) For finding out the extend of candidate orientation o f the voters and for finding

out their personal knowledge of the candidates contesting the election.

(2) To ascertain if a vigorous door to door campaign was launched by the

candidates which might have given a candidate orientation to the voters.

The responses to the first question as to “whether the voters knew the names of

the candidates” are displayed in table 6.3.

Table 6.3

131

Awareness of the Voter Regarding the Name’s of the Candidates

Responses (in PC.)

High Caste Hindu voters (in P.C.)

Muslim voters (in P C.)

Tribal voters (in P.C.)

Tea Mazdoor voters (in P C.)

Very high(l 00-

76)

5.2 18.6 1.5

High (7 5 -5 1 ) 13.6 14.2 3.8 1 5

Medium (50 - 25) 40.7 45 3 25.6 137

Low (Below 25) 31.3 19.6 50.1 20 8

No response 9.2 2.3 190 64.0

Source • Calculated on (he Basis oj Survey Data, 2001

The degree of awareness o f the names o f the candidates has been indicated in the

form of “very high” (i.e. respondents who would name 76-100 per cent of contesting

candidates in 2001 Assembly election), “high” ( 5 1 - 7 5 percent), “medium” (25-50 per

cent), “low” (below 25 per cent) and No response. It appears from the above table that a

significant percentage o f respondents of Muslim voters (18.6 per cent) were highly aware of

the names of the candidates followed by high caste Hindu voter (5.2 percent) While

such awareness was not observed in the tea Mazdoor voters. The majority of tribal voters

were aware o f the names of a few candidates. The majority o f the upper caste Hindu

voters and the Muslim voters had also known the names o f some o f the candidates. But a

very high percentage of voters in the tea community (64.0 per cent) was totally ignorant

about the candidates. An overall trend, however, was that the majority o f respondents have

low to medium awareness

The second question as to “whether the respondents were approached by the

candidates personally during the election campaign” is displayed in table 6.4 \

132

Table 6.4

The Views of the Respondents Regarding the Mode of Approach of Candidates

Response In high caste dominated areas

InMuslim domina­ted areas'

Tribal areas Tea Garden areas

(in P.C.) (in P.C.) (in P.C.) (in P.C.)Yes 70 30 20 11

No 30 70 80 89

Source: Calculated from Primary Data Collected from the Sample Comtituencies, 2001

The table 6.4 indicates that the vast majority o f the respondents (70 per cent)

particularly in high caste dominated areas were approached by the candidates personally

and the vast majority of the respondents, particularly in the tea garden areas (89 per cent)

were not approached by the candidates personally. Even in Muslim community and Tribal

dominated areas, where the voters could be personally approached easily, (lie vast

majority o f them were not at all approached by the candidates This implies that the

candidates remained personally remote to the voters.

The third question as “did agents of any candidates solicit your vote for their

candidate” are displayed in table 6.5.

Table 6.5

The Views of the Respondents Regarding Solicitude of Candidates

133

Responses In upper caste Hindu Dominated areas

(in P.C.)

In Muslim dominated areas

(in P.C.)

Tribal areas

(in PC.)

Tea Garden areas

(in P C )

Yes 97 85 68 20

No 2 10 20 60

Noresponse

1 5 12 20

Source: Calculated on the Basis of Primary Data Collected from the Sample Constituencies,200/

it is evident that from the above table (Table 6.5) that the campaign through agents

was very vigorous in the upper caste Hindu voter dominated areas where 97 per cent of

the respondents were approached by agents o f different candidates. Similarly the percentage

of respondents so significant in Muslim and Tribal areas but such percentage in the tea

garden areas was negligible only 20 percent In the tea garden areas 60 per cent of the

respondents were not approached by agent of different candidates or different political

parties

The last question had put in this regard was “Did you exercise franchise because

your vote was sought for personally by the candidate or by their agents” are displayed in

table 6.6.

Table 6.6

The View of the Respondents on Franchise

Response In Upper caste Hindu dominated areas

(in P.C.)

In Muslim dominated areas (in P.C.)

Tribal areas (in P.C.)

Tea garden areas

(in P .C )Yes 21 5 15 70No 60 10 35 15No

response19 85 50 15

Source • Prepared on the Basis of the Analysts of Primary Data Collected through Village Survey, 2001

134While the upper caste Hindu voter and the Tribal voter (60 per cent and 35 per

cent respectively) gave an emphatic reply in the negative, the vast majority of the Muslim

respondents (85 per cent) refused to reply. The tea garden respondents had been guided

by the local leaders of their community.

The general trend was that irrespective o f the degree of awareness of the names of

the candidates, respondents in Hindu, Muslim, Tribal and Tea community voted for the

Indian National Congress. However, a sipificant percentage o f the respondents voted for

the ABSU’s candidates in the Tribal dominated areas of Bhabanipur Assembly

constituency. In the Muslim dominated Jonia Assembly constituency, the vast majority of

respondents, irrespective o f the degree o f awareness of the names o f the candidates voted

for the Indian National Congress candidate. It therefore, appears that there was a little

correlation between the voter’s awareness o f the name o f the candidates and their voting

preference.

Issue Orientation and Voting Behaviour

Since 1952 Legislative Assembly election in Assam issues are multiple and have a

wide coverage in their aspects. In the following text, an attempt has been made to analyse

the issues taking 2001 Legislative Assembly election as an empirical base. Before focusing

the issues highlighted by the different political parties it is imperative to understand the

political arrangement of different political parties who contested the election.

As stated already, during the election campaign certain important issues such as

problem of illegal immigration from Bangladesh, IM (DT) Act, the chronic financial crisis of

the state, secret killings, insurgency problems, corruption etc. raised by the political parties.

Such issues were brought to the notice by the electorates through the press and other mass

media. Along with these special issues, solution o f unemployment problem, formation o f a

Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC), solution o f Bodo problem, industrialization, were give

adequate publicity.

In order to ascertain the extent o f issue orientation that might have taken some form

in the 2001 Assembly election, put a number o f questions to the respondents Four

questions were put to the respondents with a view to examining their reactions on these

vital issues With the help of respondents’ reaction also examine if these issues had

influenced the voting preference of the respondents Table 6,7 displays their response to

the first question

135

Table 6.7

The Views of the Respondents on the AGP-led Government

Do you think that failure of the AGP - led Government o f fulfill the aspirations of the people was the most important factor influencing the people’s mandate?

Response Hindu Voters (in P .C )

Muslim Voters (in P.C.)

Tribal Voters (in P.C )

Tea Community Voters (in P .C )

Yes 71.3 68.6 85.6 65.7No 15.7 10.2 7.5 8.1

Non-response 13.0 21.2 6.9 26.2

Source: Based on primary Data calculated by Scholar

The bulk of Tribal voter (85.6 per cent) thought that failure o f the AGP-led

Government to fulfill the aspiration of Bodo people was the most important factor

influencing the change of people’s mandate in Bodo dominated areas o f Assam. 71.3 per

cent of the Hindu voters also did not support the manner in which the AGP-led

Government administered the state of Assam. A considerable percentage o f the Muslim and

Tea community voter believed that failure of the AGP-led Government was the main cause

behind the change of people’s mandate.

The second question related to the “Secret killing” during the AGP-led government

Table 6.8 displays their response to the second question.

Table 6.8

The Views of the Respondents on “Secret Killing”

Do you support the manner in which the “secret killing” programme was implemented by the AGP-led Government during when AGP in power ?

Response Hindu Voters Muslim Voters Tribal Voters Tea Community(in P.C.) _(in P.C.) (in P.C.) Voters (in P.C.)

Yes 6.2 87 8.5 95No 80.6 60.3 71.7 61.5

Non-response 13.2 31.0 19 8 29.0

Source. Calculated by Researcher from Survey Data, 2001

The table 6.8 indicates that the vast majority o f respondents, particularly in the

Hindu and the Tribal voters did not support the “secret killing” programme implemented

during AGP-led government rule. Even in the Muslim and Tea Mazdoor voters also

opposed such activities. The credit accruing the AGP-led government for increasing success

in tackling insurgency and in unmasking the IS l conspiracy and gun running was large

offset by the spate o f “secret killings”. Here also intended to ascertain the views of

respondents on certain vital economic issues raised by most o f the political parties in

their manifestoes The first suggestion was “without industrialization economic progress of

the state is not possible.

Their responses were recorded in the form o f “strongly agree” , “agree”, “disagree”,

“strongly disagree” and “do not know”. Table 6.9 shows the views o f the respondents on

industrialization.

Table 6.9

The Views of the Respondents on industrialization

136

Response Hindu Voters (in P.C.)

Muslim Voters (in P.C.)

Tribal Voters (in P.C.)

Tea Community Voters (in P.C.)

Strongly agree 15 20 16 13

Agree 70 50 55 52

Non-response 3 - - 6

Strongly disagree 1 - “ 3

Do nor know 11 30 29 26

Source • Calculated on the Basts of Primary Data Collected from Sample Constituencies during 2001 Assembly Election.

If take up the percentage o f respondents who “strongly agreed” and just “agree”

together, it seems that majority o f the respondents supported industrialization. An

overwhelming majority of the Hindu voters (85 per cent), the Muslim voters (80 per cent),

the Tribal voters (71 percent) and the Tea community voters (65 percent) fully agreed

with the suggestion put forwarded by different political parties

The last question related to the emotive issue “the illegal immigration from

Bangladesh to the entire North-East India and the controversial illegal migrants

(Determination by Tribunals) IM (DT) Act. (Table 6.10). The Assam agitation lasting for more

than six years making dozens of promising young men martyrs and mining the careers of

thousands of young men - produced the Assam Accord containing dangerous provision for

enactment of a piece of legislation (later on known as the IM (DT) Act. 1983, and that

the agitation leaders were too quick to sign the Assam Accord. The issue of repeal of the

most infamous Illegal Migration (Determination by Tribunal) Act. 1983 is currently

occupying the central position in the minds of the conscious citizens throughout the

country and specially in the state of Assam before the 2001 Assembly election.

137

Tabic 6.10

The Views of the Respondents on IlVf(DT) Act, 1983

Do you think the repeal of the most infamous Illegal Migration (Determination by Tribunal) Act is necessary for detection and deportation of foreigners ?

Response Hindu Voters Muslim Voters Tribal Voters Tea Community(in P.C.) (in P.C.) (in P.C.) Voters (in P.C.)

Yes 71 1 75 55

No 25 99 5 10

Do not know 4 - 20 35

Source. Calculation Based on Data Collected from the Sample Constituencies Before the 2001 Assembly Election in Assam.

The above table (Table 6.10) reveals certain interesting facts. The bulk of the Hindu

voters respondents (71 percent) wanted to the repeal o f most infamous IM (DT) Act for

detection and deportation o f foreigners. Of course, majority o f the respondents in the

Muslim voters (99 per cent) did not support the repeal of IM (DT) Act. The vast

majority of respondents in the Tribal Community (75 per cent) also supported the repeal of

IM (DT) Act., 1983

The correspondence between the voters’ perception of the issues relating to failure

of AGP-Ied Government, secret killing, economic issues, repeal o f the Illegal Migration

(Determination by Tribunal) Act, 1983 and their voting preference shown in table 6.11.

138

Table 6.11

Overall Views of the Respondents Based on Different Issues

Voter Segment Voting Preference (in percentage)INC (I) AGP BJP Independents and Others

Hindu 40 20 12 28Muslim 70 5 1 24Tribal 10 13 7 70Tea Community 62 23 5 10

Source : Calculation Based on Data Collected from the Sample Constituencies Before the 2001 Assembly Election in Assam.

The table 6.11 projects a pro-Congress trend in voting preference of the respondents of Hindu, Muslim and Tea community. On the other hand majority of the Tribal voters decided to vote for the independent candidates.

Party Identification

In order to examine the extent of party identification on the part of sample respondents had put the following questions •

1 To which party you feel closer?2. Are you a member of any political party ?3. Did you care a good deal about which party wins the elections?4. Whom did you vote-the candidates, the party or the election symbol ?

Table 6.12

The Views of the Respondents which Political Party felt closer

To which party you feel closer?

Voter segment Response : closer to (in percentage)INC (I) AGP BJP Communist Not at all Non response

Hindu 17.5 6.3 21 0.7 46.3 27 1Muslim 35.7 2.2 0.3 1.5 21.7 38.6Tribal 7.5 6.3 1.1 1.8 35.3 48.0Tea community 41.3 10.5 _ 2.2 1.2 21.3 23.5

Source : Calculation Based on Data Collected from the Sample Constituencies Before the 2001 Assembly Election in Assam.

The table 6.12 shows that the number of respondents o f Tea community and

Muslim voters who had felt closer towards the Indian National Congress (I) than the

number o f respondents who had felt closer to the same party in the Hindu and the Tribal

voters About 41.13 per cent of the Tea community voters felt closer to the Indian National

Congress (I), while 35.7 per cent o f the religious minority Muslim voters identified with

the INC ( I ) . About 46.3 per cent o f the respondents in Hindu voters did not identify with

any o f the political party.

139

Table 6.13

The Views of the Respondents about their Political Party’s Membership

Are you Member o f any political party ?

Voter segment Yes (in PC.) No (in P.C.) Non response (in P C )

Hindu 5.6 80 7 13.7

Muslim 10.7 75.3 14.0

Tribal 3.2 85.3 11.5

Tea community 3.6 91.7 4 7

Source • Calculation Based on Data Collected from the Sample Constituencies Before the 2001 Assembly Election in Assam

The table 6,13 clearly indicates that the vast majority o f respondents in all voter

segments did not belong to any political party. An insignificant percentage o f respondents of

the Muslim voters (10.7 percent) however, had party membership.

Table. 6.14

The Views of the Respondents about which Party Win the 2001 Assembly Election

Did you care a good deal about which party wins the elections?

Voter segment Yes (in P.C.) No (in P.C.) Non response ( in P.C.)

Hindu 60.1 30.3 9.6

Muslim 70.3 10.2 19.5

Tribal 65.3 15.3 19.4

Tea community 23.7 60.3 16.0

Source : Calculation Based on Data Collected from the Sample Constituencies Before the2001 Assembly Election in Assam

From the above table (Table 6.14) it appears that the majority o f respondents in

the Muslim (70 3 percent), Tribal (65.3 per cent) and the Hindu (60.1 percent) voters cared

a lot as to which party would win the election. It indicates that they were psychologically

attached to one or the other party. However, vast majority o f the Tea community voters

(60.3 percent) did not have a similar attachment to any political party.

Table 6.15

140

The Views of the Respondents on the Candidate, the Party or on the Election Symbol

Whom did you vote the candidate, the party or the election symbol ?

Voter SegmentResponse (in percentage)

TheCandidate

The Party The Symbol Both the Party and Candidate

Non Response

Hindu 20.1 60.7 0.3 7.5 11 4

Muslim 22 5 62.8 10.1 3.2 1 4

Tribal 57 71 6 3.5 10.5 87

Tea Community 2 7 38.3 31.2 2.1 25 7

Source • Calculation Based on Data Collected from the Sample Constituencies Before the 2001 Assembly Election, 2001.

The above table (Table 6.15) portrays an interesting profile o f voting behaviour. A

sizeable section o f the respondents in the Hindu, Muslim and in the Tribal voters (60.7,

62 8 and 71.6 percent respectively) voted for the party. Maximum candidate orientation

was noticed in the case o f the Muslim voters (22.5 per cent), while the Hindu voters (20 1

percent) came nearer to the Muslim counterparts in this respect. The most interesting

aspect o f the profile was that 31.2 per cent o f Tea Garden respondents voted on the basis

o f the election symbol.

The table 6.16 projects an interesting picture. In the Muslim voters 75.3 per cent of

the respondents close to the INC (I) voted in favour of the Congress Party, while only 5.6

per cent o f them voted for the AGP. A vast majority of the Tea Community voters (71.6

per cent) who closer to the Indian National Congress (I) and only 10.5 per cent of

respondents voted for the AGP. A similar degree of consistency in party identification and

voting behaviour was found in the case of Hindu voters It is noteworthy that there

Table 6.16141

Overall Views of the Respondents on Voting Preference ( in Percentage)

Voter Segment Voting Preference in PC.

INC (I) AGP BJP Communist IND and Others

Voted but did not disclose

Hindu 50.5 20.5 12.6 2.6 10.0 3 8

Muslim 75 3 5.6 1.2 2.7 50 10.2

Tribal 10.5 6.7 2.1 1.8 71.6 7.3

Tea Community 71.6 10.5 i o. i 0.9 - '7.3

Source : Calculation Based on Data Collected from the Sample Constituencies During the 2001 Assembly Election

was only 10 5 percent o f Tribal respondents felt closer to the Indian National Congress

(I). As regards the respondents feeling closer to the Independent candidates which supported

by the All Bodo Student’s Union.

Most o f the respondents who did not feel at all close to any political party and the

respondents who did not disclose their party identification voted for the Indian National

Congress (I) in all sample constituencies. It is evident from the foregoing analysis that the

sample respondents voted for the party they identified with and the variation that has

been fond in this respect appears to be negligible. It therefore, appears that party

orientation was one of the determinants o f voting behaviour in 2001 Assembly election in

Assam

The political factors apart, certain socio-economic factors have a role influencing the

voter’s choice. An attempt has been made in following pages to analyse the correlation

between socio-economic status o f the voters and the voting behaviour o f respondents with

reference to the Legislative Assembly Election, 2001.

Sex and Voting Preference

It would be logical to assume that in a male dominated society like ours the

voting behaviour of the female respondents should not normally differ from that of the

male respondents. But in practice, one notices a differences between the voting preference

of the female and that of the male respondents within the elite Hindu voter segments. In

the Muslim, Tribal and the Tea garden areas such differences was almost negligible.

Table 6.17 shows the findings with regard to correspondence between sex composition and

voting preferences.

Table 6.17

142

Sex and Voting Preferences (in Percentage)

VoterSegment

SexGroup

INC(I) AGP BJP Communist Ind. & Others

Voted but did not disclose

HinduMale 51.5 21 2 10.5 - 15.6 1 2

Female 35.6 30.5 6.7 - 18.7 85

MuslimMale 72.1 5 1 - - 8 6 14 2

Female 73.5 2.2 - - 7.7 16,6

Tribal

TeaCommunity

Male 25 1 7.1 1.5 - 60.6 5.7

Female

Male

12.3

71.6

5.2

10 2 '

1.2

” 5.5' -

61.7

5.1

19.6

7.6

Female 73.1 8.2 6.1 - 5.2 7.4

Source: C a lcu la tio n B ased o n D a ta C o lle c te d fro m the S a m p le C on s titu en cies A fte r

the 2001 Assem bly E le c t io n

The table 6.17 reveals that the percentage of the male respondents casting votes in

favour of the INC (I) was higher than that o f the females who voted for the same

political party. On the other hand the percentage of male respondents who voted for the

AGP was less then that of the female counterparts among the Hindu voters. In the Muslim

and in the Tea community voter segments, the voting behaviour o f the male and the

female respondents was similar so far as the INC (I) was concerned but a slight variation

was notice in their preferences for the AGP. In all the voters segments (Hindu, Muslim,

Tribal and Tea Community) not a single male or female respondents vote for the

Communist patty. In the Tribal dominated areas, the male and female respondents voted

alike for theABSU’s supported Independent candidates.

Age and Voting Preference

It is generally found that political aspirations and ideas o f the younger generation

may not be similar to those of the older generation. The validity of the assumption that

age is one of the determinants of voting behaviour was tested in this study (Table 6 18)

143

Table 6.18

Age and Voting Preference ( in Percentage)

VoterSegment

Age Group INC (I) AGP BJP Communist Ind. & Others

Voted but did not disclosed

18-30 32.6 43.7 7.5 - 14.5 1 7

3 1 -4 0 31.3 41 5 5 3 - 16 3 5.6

Hindu 4 1 -5 0 33.2 35.7 6.7 - 18 3 5.9

51 and above 37.2 34.1 6.5 - 15.3 6.9

18-30 72.5 6.6 - 1.5 8.5 10 9

31 -4 0 73.3 6 1 - 1.1 6.1 13.4

Muslim 41 -5 0 75.3 3.5 - - 7.1 14.1

51 and above 76.5 4.1 - - 8.9 10.5

18 -30 6.5 10.5 2.5 1.2 75 0 4.3

3 1 -4 0 7.1 13.6 1.5 2.1 72.1 3.6

Tribal 4 1 -5 0 6.7 11.3 - - 74.1 7.9

51 and above 7.3 12.5 - - 75.2 5.0

18 -30 71 I 5.1 1.5 - - 22.0

TeaCommunity

31 -4 0 73.1 6.5 1.1 - - 193

41 -5 0 76.3 6.6 1.2 - - 15.9

51 and above 90.1 2.3 - - - 7.6

Source • Calculation Based on Data Collected from the Sample Constituencies After the Assembly Election, Assam, 2001

The table 6.18 shows that majority of youngest respondents (18 -3 0 ) of the Hindu

voter segments voted for the AGP In the Muslim and in the Tea community voter

segments in the age group of 51 and above voted for Congress (I). Similarly 75.2 percent

of 'the same age group of Tribal voter respondents voted for the Independent candidates of

their community. Respondents who supported the INC (I) mostly belonged to the youngest

and oldest age groups. Among the Hindu voter respondents 7 5 per cent of youngest

respondents voted for the BJP while 32.6 per cent of them voted for the Congress (I)

Party.

144

Religion and Voting Preference

Religion in India plays an important role in influencing the voting preference of

the electorates It is also generally held that the minority religious groups, more particularly

the Muslims, vote en bloc in favour of the INC ( I ) . The validity o f the existing theory

stated above was tested in the sample constituencies during 2001 Assembly election

Majority of the respondents irrespective o f their religious belief voted for the INC(I)

Among the Hindu voters a sizeable proportion preferred the Asom Gana Parishad. The

Muslims were the second largest religious group in Assam that fully supported the Congress

(I) party. Almost two-thirds o f the Hindus exercised their franchise in favour o f the INC

(I) while 17 3 per cent of them preferred the AGP - BJP alliance. It should also be noted

that non-voting occurred only in the case o f Hindu respondents There was no uniform

pattern in the Muslim voting behaviour in some constituencies and the bloc voting did not

take place in the 2001 Legislative Assembly election. It fine, religion did not appear to be

a more significant determinant of voting behaviour o f the sample respondents.

Literacy and Voting Preference

The table 6.19 shows the association between the levels o f literacy and voting

preference o f the respondents. Table shows that an overwhelming respondents in the

Muslim and the Tea community voters irrespective o f their levels o f literacy, voted for

INC (I). Whatever little support the Asom Gana Parishad got in the Muslim and Tea

community voters came from the group of respondents whose level o f literacy was above

graduation, While the Bharatiya Janata Party failed to enlist the support from the Muslim

voters of this group. In the Hindu voter respondents with higher levels o f literacy tended to

vote, in larger number for the Congress (I) party. It should also be mentioned that majority

of illiterate Hindu voters also preferred the Congress (I) party while the rest of the group

voted largely for the either INC (I) or the Asom Gana Parishad or the Independent

candidates (Fig. 6.4, 6 5, 6.6 & 6.7 ). The Tribal voters were found to be overwhelmingly

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candidates. It should be noted that the percentage of non-voting was the highest among the

highly educated respondents.

Table 6.19

148

Literacy and Voting Preference (in Percentage)

VoterSegments

LiteracyGroup

INC(I)

AGP BJP Communist Ind. & Others

Voted but did not

disclosed

Hindu

Illiterate 60.2 15.6 6.6 - 12.6 5.0

Up to primary 45 3 25.3 3.5 - .20.3 5.6

Below HSLC 43.7 27.2 3 1 - 18.5 7.5

Above HSLC 43.1 28.3 2.7 - 19.5 6.4

Graduate and above

44.3 28.1 3.1 - 16.5 8.0

Muslim

Illiterate 86 2 2.1 - - 7.5 42

Up to primaiy 83.3 2.2 - - 6.5 8.0

Below HSLC 81.4 2 1 - - 6.7 97

Above HSLC 83.5 2.7 - - 7 1 68

Graduate and above

80.3 5 7 “ 5 1 8.9

Tribal

Illiterate 7.7 9.5 2.1 - 70.1 106

Up to primaiy 7.9 10.5 2.2 - 71 1 83

Below HSLC 7.1 9.3 2.1 - 72,2 94

Above HSLC 10.5 10.3 1.5 - 70.1 7.6

Graduate and above

10.1 9.8 - - 71.5 8.6

TeaCommunity

Illiterate 67.7 18.5 2.5 - 3.2 8 1

Up to primaiy 70.1 17.5 23 - 5.1 49

Below HSLC 70.2 18.1 2.1 - 6 1 3.5

Above HSLC 69.6 20.2 1.7 - 5.3 32

Graduate and above

67.7 21.2 22 - 4.5 4.8

Source Calculation Rased on Data Collected from the Sample Constituencies During the 2001 Legislative Assembly Election in Assam.

149

Caste and Voting Preference

Caste also influenced the party performance in 11th Assembly election in Assam,

particularly at local levels The role of the caste at the state level is insignificant. Political

organization and leadership constantly cut across existing loyalties and cleavages of caste

create new loyalties in political association. The Congress party and the Asom Gana

Parishad also do not command substantial support among the tribal people o f Assam The

Asom Gana Parishad is rapidly losing the support o f minorities such as Muslim, Bengali

Hindus and the backward classes. These minorities feel that the AGP is unable to protect

their interest (Table 6.20).

Table 6.20

Caste and Voting Preference (in Percentage)

Caste Group INC(I) AGP BJP Communist Ind. & Others

Voted but did not disclose

Upper Caste 50.2 33.5 10.7 - 4.1 1.5

OBC 41 3 19 3 8.6 1 2 122 186

MOBC 42.3 20.1 6.8 1.1 15.1 146

ST 5 1 5.3 1.7 - 68.6 193

SC 32.1 18.5 2.8 1.3 30.1 15.2

Others 38.5 20.1 10.6 - 19.2 12.6

Source- Calculation Based on Data Collected from Sample Constituencies During the 2001 Legislative Assembly Election in Assam.

The data display in the table 6.20 shows that cross-caste voting among the

respondents.. 50.2 percent of the upper caste respondents voted for the INC 1) and 33.5

per cent of the same caste group voted for the AGP candidate. It is also noteworthy that

41.3 percent o f the OBC group respondents voted for the INC (I) while 19.3 per cent of

them voted for the AGP candidate. The same picture is also seen in case of the MOBC

group o f respondents. Majority o f the respondents who belong to the ST voted for the

Independent candidates belonging to their own community. The SC respondents appears to

have voted for the INC (I) (32.1 per cent), their choice for the AGP was also not

insignificant as 18.5 per cent of them decided to vote for the AGP.

This leads one to assume that the caste of the candidate as an independent variable

did not have dominant role to play in deciding the choice of voters. But a

combination o f caste, issues orientation and party orientation o f the voters certainly a

determinant o f the voting behaviour of the sample respondents.

Income and Voting Preference

It is generally held that income of the voter is one o f the major determinants of

his or her voting preference, fable 6.21 presents the correlation between income and

voting preference of the respondents. The table 6.21 is presents an interesting picture. The

Indian National Congress (I) secured the highest percentage o f voters o f the respondents

belonging to the higher (Rs. 5000/-and above) and low (Rs. 0 - 1000/-) monthly income

groups It was also found that a majority o f the respondents having a monthly income of

Rs. 1000-5000/- (the middle income group) voted for the Asom Gana Parishad and a

sizeable section of this income group voters franchise in favour o f Indian National

Congress (1). It should be noted percentage of votes polled by the INC (I) and the AGP in

the tribal dominated areas belonging to any income groups recorded a declining trend In the

tea garden areas 85 per cent of the respondents belonging to the middle income group voted

for the Indian National Congress (I) while a division o f voters, though not very significant,

occurred in the case o f respondent in the , lower income groups.

150

Table 6.21

Income and Voting Preference (in percentage)

Income group INC (I) AGP BJP Communist IND &others Voted but did not disclosed

Rs 0 -1000/- 47.5 20 2 103 1.3 13.6 8.4

Rs. 1000/-- 5000/- 35 3 39.6 7.8 - 11.3 6.0

Rs, 5001/-& above 43.7 18.3 105 - 137 11 8

Source ■ Calculation Based on Data Collected from Sample Constituencies During the 2001 Legislative Assembly Election in Assam.

It was also found that respondents belonging to any income groups (Low, Middle or

High) voted for the BJP not veiy significant (less than 10.5 per cent). The percentage of

votes polled by the Independent candidates was the highest among the respondents

belonging to the high income group (15.7 percent)

151Occupational Status and Voting Preference

Although religion, literacy, caste, linguistic and regional feelings are prevalent in

certain areas, rural-urban and occupational status of the voters also obvious in some areas

of the state In the urban areas 90 percent of the respondents in the Secondary and

Tertiary occupational status groups voted for the Indian National Congress (I) The vast

majority o f the production workers also voted for the Indian National Congress (I) while an

insignificant percentage of them voted for the Asom Gana Parishad.

In the rural areas, respondents who were agriculturists (primary occupation) voted in

a massive way for the Indian National Congress (I), and 21.5 per cent respondents voted for

the Asom Gana Parishad. There were 30 respondents who did not disclose their occupation

and they voted for the Indian National Congress (1) Forty per cent of the agricultural

labours which numerical strength was 31 voted for the Independent candidates while 10 3

per cent voted for the Asom Gana Parishad.

As regards tea garden voters, it was found that 75.3 per cent o f the tea mazdoor

voters exercised their franchise in favour o f the Indian National Congress (I) and 10.5 per

cent supported the Asom Gana Parishad.

From the foregoing discussion it appears that a significant shift had taken place in

the voting preference o f the Hindus, the Scheduled Caste and the Scheduled 1 ribes in

Assam. These communities in the past (General elections held in 1985 and 1996) had

wholly supported the Asom Gana Parishad but in 2001. Legislative Assembly election they

appeared to have withdrawn their support from the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and

extended their support largely to the Indian National Congress (I). It was also found that

the Assamese speaking Hindu voters in the Brahmaputra valley had no longer voted en

bloc for the Asom Gana Parishad (like 1985 and 1996 Assembly elections) and that a

serious crack occurred in their monolithic support for the Asom Gana Parishad.

Introduction of the Sample Legislative Assembly Constituencies

Here, in the present analysis attempts have been made to illustrate the voting

behaviour o f the electorates from three sample Assembly constituencies of the Barpeta

district and from one sample Assembly constituency o f the Tinsukia district in the

Brahmaputra valley o f Assam. The sample Assembly constituencies, namely 41 No. Bhabanipur,

152

42 No. Patacharkuchi and 44 No. Jonia all falling within the administrative jurisdiction o f

Barpeta district and 125 No. Doom Dooma Assembly constituency is falling within the

administrative jurisdiction of Tinsukia district in Assam. These four Assembly constituencies

were selected for the survey in order to make a comparative study of the voting

behaviour o f the electorates in the Eighth, Ninth, Tenth and Eleventh General Elections to

Assam Legislative Assembly held in 1985, 1991.1996 and 2001 respectively.

The selection of sample constituencies was confined strictly on electorate

composition.lt should be noted that 41 No. Bhabanipur Legislative Assembly constituency

had mixed voters make-up like Hindu, Muslim and Bodo voters, 42 No. Patacharkuchi

Legislative Assembly constituency had highest concentration o f Hindu voters, 44 No. Jonia

Legislative Assembly constituency had highest concentration o f Muslim voters and 125 No

Doom Dooma Assembly constituency had highest concentration o f tea community voters

(Fig. 6.8). The main purpose of the survey was to study the voting behaviour o f the

Assamese Hindu voters, Religious Minority voters, Bodo or Scheduled Tribe voters and

tea garden Mazdoor voters in 2001 Assembly election. A pre-poll survey of the voters

living in these four Assembly constituencies was conducted. The findings o f the pre-poll

survey predicted the victory o f the Indian National Congress (I) candidates from the 41 No.

Bhabanipur, 44 No. Jonia and 125 No. Doom Dooma Assembly constituencies and a

Independent candidates from Patacharkuchi Assembly constituency.

Voters' structure in the sample Assembly constituencies during 2001 Assembly

election shown below (Table 6.22).

Table 6.22

Voters Structure of the Sample Assembly Constituencies

42. No. Patacharkuchi Legislative Assembly Constituency

1. High Caste Hindu Voters :

2 Scheduled Caste (Kosh-Rajbangshi) Voters •

3. Scheduled Tribes (Bodo) Voters

4 Muslim (Religious Minority) Voters :

5. Others :

43%

31%

10%

8%

8%

Table 6.22 (contd.)153

41 No. Bhabaninur Legislative Assembly Constitaencv

1. High Caste Hindu Voters :

2. Scheduled Tribes (Bodo) Voters

3. Muslim (Religious Minority) Voters :

4. Scheduled Caste Voters

5. Others :

44 No. Jonia Legislative Assemblv Constituency

38%

26%

20%

12%

4%

1. Muslim (Religious Minority) Voters 90%

2. Hindu Voters : 9%

3. Others : 1%

4. Doubtful (D) Voters

125.No. Doom Dooma Legislative Assemblv Constituency

9097 (total)

1. Tea Community Voters : 64%

2. Hindu Bengali Voters : 11%

3. Assamese speaking Voters 16%

4. Hmdi speaking Voters : 6%

5. Others 3%

Source : Compiled from Electoral Rolls Published by the Government o f Assam

Table 6.23

Electoral Hold of the Political Parties in the Sample Constituencies from 1985 to 2001Legislative Assembly Elections

Name of the ConstituenciesPolitical Parties

1985 1991 1996 2001

Patacharkuchi . AGP Independent AGP PLP

Bhabanipur AGP Independent AGP INC (I)

Jonia UMF INC (I) UMF INC (I)

Doom Dooma INC(I) INC (I) INC (I) INC (I)

Source : Legislative Assembly Election Report - 1985, 1991, 1996, and 2001, Published by the Govt, of Assam.

Fig. 6

.0

155The Sample Assembly Constituencies and the Sample

Patacharkuchi The Pataciiarkuclii Legislative Assembly constituency is predominantly a

rural one The proportion of urban population in the constituency is found to be only 5 per

cent, Pathsala is the only urban center in the constituency with a total population of

10,222 (2001), In 2001, the Patacharkuchi constituency had 1,07,421 voters of whom 6.5

per cent were urban voters. More than 70 per cent o f the total population in

Patacharkuchi constituency are getting their means o f livelihood from agricultural sector

Literacy rate is found to be significantly high in comparison to neighbouring Assembly

constituencies.

The Congress (I), the AGP, the PLP and the Samajbadi party put up their candidates

in this constituency in 2001 Assembly election. In addition to them there were 9

Independent candidates. In Patacharkuchi constituency there were 1,07,421 voters o f whom

76,448 voted in the 2001 election (The number o f invalid votes was only 994) The PLP

candidate won the election by defeating his nearest Independent rival by a narrow

margin(only 99 votes) In the eight Genera! election held in 1985, the AGP candidate won

the election by defeating his nearest Congress (I) rival with a record margin(more than

sixty thousand) From this constituency, in 1991 election, was returned a Independent

candidate and in 1996 election won the seat by a AGP candidate. The INC (I) hold over

the electorates of the constituency had be considerably reduced since 1978 Assembly

elections The Congress party was worst affected in this constituency since 1985 Assembly

elections The constituency was one o f the AGP strongholds and in all the earlier

elections (since 1985), the party was in a very comfortable position.

The first regional level realignment in the voting habits in Assam occurred in 1985,

when people voted the Asom Gana Parishad, a regional political party to power in several

constituencies. The traditional Congress voters o f this constituency were also went to the

AGP, elTecting a major change in the regional voting habits. Since than change become a

more common phenomenon on the electoral scenario in this constituency. Assam witnessed

two realignment during 1985 - 2001, but in this constituency four realignments dumg 1985-

2001. The first occurred in 1985 when people voted the AGP but soon it collapsed and the

second realignment occurred in the year 1991 Assembly election when voters favoured a

strong Independent candidate and the third realignment occurred in 1996 Assembly election,

when the people again voted the AGP and again in 2001 Assembly election when the

voters favoured the another regional party called the Purvanchaliya Loka Parishad (PLP)

Besides examining the shift support structure o f the political parties also examine

socio-economic status factors as determinants of voting beiiaviour and also examine if

political factors like candidate orientation, issue orientation and party identification of the

voters had influenced their voting preferences in the 2001 Legislative Assembly election in

this constituency

156

Bhabanipur: The Bhabanipur Legislative Assembly constituency is also predominantly an

rural, there is no any urban center. More than 80 per cent o f the total population o f this

constituency engaged in agricultural activities. In Bhabanipur Assembly constituency there

were 93,936 voters of whom 75,569 voted in the 2001 Assembly election (573 voters were

found invalid). There were five candidates in the Assembly election 2001, of whom two

were Independents. Both the Indian National Congress (I) and the Asom Gana Parishad

contested the election from this constituency. All Bodo Student’s Union (ABSU) also set

up their candidates in this constituency as Independent candidate. The Congress (I)

candidate won the election by defeating his nearest ABSU rival by a margin o f 5,565 votes

The number of votes secured by the Congress (I) was 33,974 as against 28,409 votes

secured by the ABSU candidate

The Eighth General election held in 1985, the AGP candidate won the election by

defeating his nearest Congress (I) rival In the Ninth General election held in 1991, the

sitting AGP member was defeated by the Independent candidate. But in the 1996

Assembly election, again won the seat by the AGP candidate defeating his nearest

Congress (I) candidate

The electorates of this constituency has given a decisive verdict for change. The

return o f Congress (!) candidate to power in 2001 Assembly election with massive support

fiom different sections o f people cannot be explained only by attributing it to anti­

incumbency factors even through that possibly played the most important role in this

constituency. Besides examining the change in the support o f electorates in different

Assembly electrons, caste anu religion as determiiiaitis of voting behaviour were also

taken up for scrutiny. Local issues like Buuoiami Territorial Council, 8LT anu NDPS

activities, liarassments of religious minority groups by the Bodo extremist was also

consideration.

Jonia : The Jonia Legislative Assembly constituency is one of the Muslim dominated

constituencies of Assam. More than 90 per cent of electorates belongs to Muslim

community. It is predominantly a rural constituency and more than 95 per cent of total

population engaged in agricultural activities

The Joma Assembly constituency had in total number of 1,05,839 voters. In the

2001 Assembly election, 79,350 voters exercised their franchise Altogether 10 candidates

contested the election in this constituency . Four o f them were Independents. The Congress

(I), the AGP, the CPI (M), the NCP, the SJP and the UMF set up their candidates

in this constituency in 2001 election. The Congress (I) candidate, won the Assembly seat

in 2001 election by defeating his nearest Independent candidate by a margin o f 3,406

votes.

157

Since the first Assembly election held in 1952 had been returning a Congress

candidate (excepting 1985 and 1996 Assembly elections) and therefore, it could be treated

as a safe seat for the Congress. In 1985 and 1996 Assembly elections this seat was won by

UMF candidate but in 1991 Assembly election from this constituency was returned a

Congress (I) candidate

Doom Dooma : The Doom Dooma constituency is falling within the district jurisdiction of

Tinsukia. The Doom Dooma constituency there were 1,04,693 voters o f whom 72,238 voted

in the 2001 Assembly election There were only two candidates in this Assembly election.

Direct contest occurred between the Indian National congress (I) party and the Asom Gana

Parishad in this constituency In the 2001 Assembly election, the Congress (I) secured

52,845 votes while the AGP secured only 14,968 votes. This represent75 percent and 23

per cent o f the total vote cast. This indicates that there was a strong Congress base in this

constituency. The Indian National Congress had monopoly over the constituency since the

first Legislative Assembly eiection( 1952). In every elections this seat won by the Congress

candidates. So, Doom Dooma is a safe seat for the Congress party.

The Doom Dooma constituency is predominantly dominated by tea gardens and 64

percent of the total voters belonging to tea community. The tea garden Mazdoor voters of

158

constituency generally used to vote en bloc in favour of the Congress candidates in every

elections. For the purpose of the survey, two tea gardens were selected on the basis of the

highest concentration of Tea Mazdoor voters there. These two tea gardens were Tara and

Dangari with 4,125 and 3,972 voters respectively. Random sampling was used to select 100

respondents from the Mazdoor or tea community only from each o f the two tea estates

Methodology

The present study intends to cover four segments o f the sample (high caste Hindu,

SC & ST, Religious minority and Tea community) in order to present a comparative

profile o f the voting behaviour o f four different categories o f people. With that end in view

the high caste Hindu and Scheduled Caste dominated constituency o f Patacharkuchi, high

caste Hindu and Scheduled Tribes (Bodo) dominated constituency o f Bhabanipur, the

Religious minority (Muslim) dominated constituency o f Jonia and the Tea community (tea

garden labours) dominated constituency o f Doom Dooma were selected as the field of

observation.

Just as these sample constituencies had been selected mainly on purposive basis, an

optimum number of 200 respondents were selected in each o f the constituencies So

randomization in strict sense could be followed. In Patacharkuchi constituency, Pathsala town

and its neighbouring area had the highest concentration of urban as well as rural voters

Pathsala town was selected for random sampling because it is the only urban center o f this

constituency. The survey intended to include among the urban respondents, members o f the

business community and also of heterogeneous groups o f people. In this process 100

respondents were selected from the Pathsala town. Similarly 100 respondents were

selected from the neighbouring rural area of Pathsala town In Bhabanipur constituency

Galiya village and the Rupahi village was selected because Galiya village predominantly a

high caste Hindu village on the other hand the Rupahi village predominantly an Bodo

community. In this process 100 respondents were selected from the Goliya village and

similarly 100 respondents were selected from the Rupahi village. In Jonia constituency,

Kalgachiya area was selected because it was the most populous area with semi-urban

activity. Kalgachiya is the nerve center of Jonia constituency. In Doom Dooma

constituency, Tara and Dangari Tea Estates were selected for sampling. Tara Tea Estate is

situated near an urban centre, Doom Dooma, and the voters in this Estate were supposed

to have at least some access to modem means of mass communication. The sample

exposure was not available to the voters in Dangari, which is 17 km away from Doom

Dooma, the nearest town.

To present comparative profile of the voting behaviour, the following socio­

economic variables have been selected to highlight some of the characteristics which are

considered relevant for a study of this kind. These are : (i) age (ii) sex (iii) religion (iv)

language (v) caste (vi) literacy and (vii) income

159

Table 6.24

Distribution of Respondents According to Age (in Percentage)

Age Group Hindu Muslim Tribal TeaCommunity

Total Sample

18 -30 30 35 50 38 38 2531 -4 0 25 30 25 30 27.5041 -5 0 20 25 15 22 20 5051 and above 25 10 10 10 13.75

Total 100 100 100 100 100.00

Source : Prepared on the Basts of the Analysts o f Primary Data Collected through Village Survey, 2001

Table 6.25

Distribution of Respondents According to Sex (in Percentage)

Sex Hindu Muslim Tribal Tea Community Total

Male 70 80 80 85 78.75

Female 30 20 20 15 21.25

Source: Prepared on the Basts of the Analysts of Primary Data Collected through Village Survey, 2001

160

Table 6.26

Distribution of Respondents According to Religion ( in Percentage)

ReligionName o f Assembly Constituency

Patacharkuchi Bhabanipur Jonia Doom Dooma Total Sample

Hindu 92 70 5 94 65,25

Muslim 7 20 95 1 30 75

Christian 1 7 - 4 3 00

Others - - - - -

No Answer - 3 - 1 1.00

Source: Prepared on the Basis o f the Analysis o f Primary Data Collected Through Random Sample Survey from the Sample Constituencies, 2001

Table 6.27

Distribution of Respondents According to Caste (in Percentage)

Caste Hindu Muslim Tribal Tea Community

Upper Caste 60 - - -

S.C. 10 - - -

S.T. 15 - - -

O.B.C. 5 - - -

M.O.B.C. 5 - - 95

Others 5 - - 5

Source: Prepared on the Basis o f the Analysis o f Primary Data Collected Through Random Sample Survey from the Sample Constituencies, 2001

Table 6.28161

Distribution of Respondents According to Language (in Percentage)

Language Hindu Muslim Tribal Tea Community Total Sample

Assamese 90 60 10 80 60 00

Bengali 3 40 - 20 15 75

Bodo 7 - 90 - 24.25

Source : Prepared on the Basis o f the Analysis oj Primary Data Collected ThroughRandom Sample Suiyey from the Sample Constituencies, 2001

Table 6.29

Distribution of Respondents According to Literacy (in Percentage)

Literacy Level Hindu Muslim Tribal Tea Community Total Sample

Illiterate 5 10 20 75 27 50

Up to Primaiy io io ” ' 20 ’ io 12.50

Below HSLC 20 30 25 7 20.50

Above HSLC 45 30 15 5 23.75

Graduate & Above 20 10 10 3 10.75

No Response - 10 10 - 5.00

Source : Prepared on the Basis o f the Analysis o f Primary Data Collected ThroughRandom Sample Survey from the Sample Constituencies, 2001

Table 6.30

Distribution of Respondents According to Income (in Percentage)

Income Group(per month) Hindu Muslim Tribal Tea Community Total Sample

Rs. 0 - 1000/- 20 45 50 70 46.25

Rs. 1000/- - 5000/- 60 40 35 25 40 00

Above Rs.- 5000/- 20 15 15 5 13 75

Source : Prepared on the Basis of the Analysis o f Primary Data Collected ThroughRandom Sample Survey from the Sample Constituencies, 2001

The questionnaire and the interview schedules prepared for the pre-poll survey were

meant to interview a particular set voters. After the completion of the interviews, replay

of each question was tabulated in the form of coding For this purpose a consolidated

coding sheet was prepared in which all the replies of a respondent were put in the form

of codes in one line of the sheet. This method made it possible to have a picture of

voting behaviour of the respondents at a glance.

162

Table 6.31

Number of Selected Sample Respondents and Completed in Interviews

Sample Constituency No. of Sample No. of CompletedRespondents Interviews

I Patacharkuchi (Upper Caste) 200 190

2. Bhabanipur (Mixed) 200 170

3. Jonia (Religious Minority) 200 155

4. Doom Dooma (Tea Community) 200 120

Source : Prepared on the Basis o f the Analysis o f Primary Data Collected ThroughRandom Sample Survey from the Sample Constituencies, 2001

ft would appear from the table above (Table 6 31) that the rate o f response was

higher in Patacharkuchi, on the other hand rate o f non-response was higher in Doom

Dooma constituency. The political atmosphere and other socio-economic factors at that time

of survey was mainly responsible for the variation o f rate o f response.

Socio-Economic Status of the Respondents: This part is denoted to an analysis of the

socio-economic status of the sample electorates interviewed during the field work. The

description and interpretation has been presented in relation to Hindu/Muslim/Tribal/Tea

community affiliation of respondents. A description o f this kind would help in

understanding the socio-economic status of the electorates and to draw conclusions

accordingly. The socio-economic variable like age, sex, religion, language, caste, literacy

and family income taken into consideration for interpreting the voting behaviour o f the

respondents

The total sample of the study as shown in preceding chapter consisted of 635 Of

these 190 were drawn from the Hindu electorates, 170 were from the Muslim electorate,

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155 were from the Tribal electorates and 120 were from the Tea community electorates

(Table 6.31). A division of age groups into four categories, viz. from 18-30, 31-40, 41-50 and

51 and above revealed that the respondents were by an large fairly distributed in all the

four categories though there were some differences in their respective number. For example

respondents belonging to the 18-30 age group were the highest in number (38.25 per cent)

followed by the 31-40 age group (27 50 per cent) and then the 41-50 age group (20.50 per

cent) and the 51 and above age group (13.75 per cent) respectively. Thus the maximum

representation was the young people who were 18-40 years old. In terms of

Hindu/Muslim/Tribal/Tea community affiliation of the respondents, electorates belonging to

18-30 years were maximum in Tribal community followed by the 31-40, the 41-50 and 51

and above age groups. Among the Tea community respondents, the highest number was in

the 18-30 age groups. The next larger group was the 31-40 age group followed by the

41-50 age groups and 51 and above 51 and above age group respectively. Among the

Muslim community respondents, the highest number was in the 18-30 age groups and

followed by the 31-40 age group, the 41-50 age group and the 51 and above age groups

respectively. Among the Hindu community respondents the largest group was from 18-30

age groups The next largest groups belong to 31-40 and 51 and above age group and were

minimum in the 41-50 age groups(Tab!e 6.24).

In the Hindu/Muslim/Tribal/Tea community affiliation of respondents, belonging to

male by and large similar In the Tea community, however, the female population

represented only 15 per cent as against 30 per cent female population represented by

Hindu community The number o f female respondents who constituted only 21.25 per cent

was not a substantial number as against 78 75 per cent males in all the communities

(Table 6.25).

The sample drawn for the study bad 65.25 percent Hindus,30 75 per cent Muslims,

3.00 per cent Christians and other while 1 per cent respondents did not mention their

religion (Table 6 26). Therefore, the entire sample was marked by the predominance of the

Hindu respondents. The number of the Muslim respondents was not less The Hindu

respondents the highest number in the three Assembly constituencies, viz. Patacharkuchi,

Bhabanipur and Doom Dooma. On the other hand the Jonia Assembly constituency

represented the highest number of Muslim respondents (90 percent). The pattern of

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religious affiliation in the four constituencies was however, different. Hindus constituted in

the Patacharkuchi constituency 92 per cent, in the Bhabanipur constituency, 70 per cent in

the Doom Dooma constituency, 94 per cent and in the Jonia constituency it was only 5 per

cent( Table 6.26).

The linguistic classification o f the respondents in the sample constituencies shows

the Assamese speaking people constituted the dominant linguistic group (60 per cent)

followed by the Bodo speaking group (24.25 per cent). The Bengali speaking constituted

15.75 percent o f the total respondents The Assamese speaking respondents was largely

confined in the Patacharkuchi, Bhabanipur and Doom Dooma Assembly constituencies. On

the other hand the Bodo speaking respondents and the Bengali speaking respondents were

confined in the Bhabanipur and Jonia Assembly constituencies respectively( Table 6.28)

In the Patacharkuchi and the Bhabanipur Assembly constituencies, the maximum of

the respondents was from the upper castes as the constituted 60 per cent o f the

respondents. The representation o f SC and ST population was 10 per cent and 15 percent

respectively. The number of OBC respondents was 5 per cent, the -number of MOBC

respondents constituted also 5 per cent and that o f others was 5 per cent (Table 6.27). The

Muslim population is shown with the respondents who did not disclose their castes. A large

number o f the sample electorates in the tea community are belonged to MOBC with regard

to the total sample, it is observed that the respondents belonging to the MOBC were the

highest in number (95 per cent). The Doom Dooma Assembly constituency was largely

inhabited by the MOBC and the Bhabanipur Assembly constituency was largely inhabitant

by the ST and SC respondents. Illiteracy was rampant among the tea community

respondents (75 per cent), followed by the Tribal community (20 per cent). The Hindu

respondents were educated followed by the Muslim respondents. Illiteracy was almost nil in

the Hindu respondents, it was only 5 per cent. In the total, the illiterate voters

constituted 27.50 percent, as against 12.50 per cent who were educated up to primary

level, 20.50 per cent who had educated below HSLC level, 23.75 percent o f the sample

respondents had educated above HSLC level and 10.75 per cent had achieved education up

to graduate level. 5 per cent did not reveal their educational status (Table 6.29)

The respondents having an income ofRs. 1000 or less per month were 46.25 per

cent between Rs. 1000/-- 5000/- per month were 40 per cent, 13.75 per cent respondents

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had an income of Rs. 5001/-or above. In the Hindu community 20 per cent had income

Rs. 1000/- or less per month. 60 per cent o f the respondents had an income o f Rs 1000/- -

5000/-per month. The respondents having an income of Rs. 5001/- or above per month

were 20 per cent. In the Tea community as many as 70 per cent of the respondents

belonged to the income group o f Rs. 1000/- or less per month. The respondents having

an income of Rs. 5001/- and above per month were 5 per cent only. In the Muslim

community 45 per cent had income of Rs 1000/- or less per month, 40 per cent of the

respondents had an income ofRs, 1000/-- 5000/- per month. The respondents having an

income o f Rs. 5001/- and above per month were 15 per cent A fairly good number of

respondents (50 per cent) of Tribal community had an income of Rs. 1000/- or less per

month. 35 per cent belonged to the income group between Rs. 1000/-- 5000/-per month

and 15 percent respondents had an income of Rs. 5001/- or above (Table6 30).