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CrackingFanDuel

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Copyright©2016bySportsguys,LLCAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,distributed,ortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,includingphotocopying,recording,orotherelectronicormechanicalmethods,withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionofthepublisher,exceptinthecaseofbriefquotationsembodiedincriticalreviewsandcertainothernoncommercialusespermittedbycopyrightlaw.Forpermissionrequests,emailthepublisheratCrackingFanDuel@Footballguys.com.

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Contents

Foreword...............................................................................................................................viii

1.Introduction..........................................................................................................................1

1.1.FantasyFootball.............................................................................................................2

1.2.WhatisDFS?..................................................................................................................5

1.3.AdvantagesofDFSOverTraditionalLeagues................................................................7

1.4.FanDuelHistoryandPositionintheIndustry................................................................9

2.TypesofContests...............................................................................................................10

2.1.TheBasics....................................................................................................................11

2.1.1.Scoring...................................................................................................................11

2.2.CashGames.................................................................................................................13

2.2.1.50/50s...................................................................................................................13

2.2.2.DoubleUps............................................................................................................14

2.2.3.Head-to-Heads......................................................................................................14

2.2.4.Head-to-HeadMatrixContests.............................................................................15

2.3.Tournaments...............................................................................................................16

2.4.Hybrids.........................................................................................................................19

2.4.1.Multipliers.............................................................................................................19

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2.4.2.Leagues.................................................................................................................19

2.4.3.Satellites................................................................................................................20

2.5.GameSelection............................................................................................................23

2.5.1.Choosinggames....................................................................................................23

2.5.2.Choosingopponents.............................................................................................24

3.LineupConstruction...........................................................................................................26

3.1.UnderstandingExpectationandVariance...................................................................27

3.2.CashGames.................................................................................................................31

3.3.Tournaments...............................................................................................................36

3.3.1.Forgetcash-gamementality.................................................................................36

3.3.2.Value,upside,andtherightcombinationofboth................................................36

3.4.TellaConsistentStory.................................................................................................42

3.5.FitLineuptoContest,orContesttoLineup?...............................................................45

3.6.OtherConsiderations...................................................................................................46

3.6.1.Thursdayvs.Sundaycontests...............................................................................46

3.6.2.Early-Yearpitfalls..................................................................................................49

3.6.3.Impactofweather.................................................................................................52

3.6.4.Enteringcontestsearlyandthenadjustingdummylineups.................................53

3.6.5.Sundayinactivelists..............................................................................................55

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4.EvaluatingPlayers...............................................................................................................57

4.1.Differentmindsetfromtraditionalredraft..................................................................58

4.2.PlayerSalaries..............................................................................................................59

4.3.Heuristics.....................................................................................................................60

4.3.1.FanDuelPricingAlgorithm.....................................................................................60

4.3.2.TheHypothesis......................................................................................................61

4.3.3.Quarterbacks.........................................................................................................61

4.3.4.RunningBacks.......................................................................................................63

4.3.5.WideReceivers......................................................................................................65

4.3.6.TightEnds..............................................................................................................66

4.3.7.Kickers...................................................................................................................68

4.3.8.Defenses................................................................................................................69

4.3.9.GoingForward.......................................................................................................70

4.4.Roundtables.................................................................................................................71

4.4.1Quarterbacks..........................................................................................................71

4.4.2.RunningBacks.......................................................................................................74

4.4.3.WideReceivers......................................................................................................75

4.4.4.TightEnds..............................................................................................................77

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4.5.Projections...................................................................................................................80

4.5.1.Usingpointspreadsandover/unders...................................................................80

4.5.2.Projectingoffensiveplaysandrun-passratios......................................................81

4.5.3.Estimatingrushesandtargetsforeachoffensiveplayer......................................82

4.5.4.Estimatingefficiencystatsforindividualplayers..................................................83

4.5.5.Consideringstrengthofopponent........................................................................84

4.5.6.Distributingtouchdowns.......................................................................................84

4.5.7.Aligningpassingandreceivingstats......................................................................85

4.5.8.Puttingitalltogether............................................................................................85

4.6.H-Value........................................................................................................................87

4.6.1.WhyisH-Valuebetterthantraditionalvaluemeasures?.....................................87

4.6.2.HowisH-Valuecalculated?...................................................................................87

4.6.3.HowshouldH-Valuebeused?..............................................................................89

4.7.UsingtheInteractiveValueCharts..............................................................................90

5.MoneyTalk.........................................................................................................................92

5.1.SiteCommissions(akaRake).......................................................................................93

5.2.Overlays.......................................................................................................................94

5.3.Bankrollmanagement.................................................................................................95

5.4.FreePlayContests.....................................................................................................103

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5.5.Bonuses......................................................................................................................104

5.6.ReferralsandPlayerPoints........................................................................................105

5.6.1.FanDuelreferralbonuses....................................................................................105

5.6.2.FanDuelPoints....................................................................................................105

6.AdvancedLineupManagement........................................................................................106

6.1.Adviceaboutnumberoflineupsperweek................................................................107

6.1.1.Cashgames.........................................................................................................107

6.1.2.Tournaments.......................................................................................................107

6.2.Managingalargenumberoflineups.........................................................................108

6.3.ExposurePerPlayer...................................................................................................110

7.IntroductiontoNBA.........................................................................................................114

8.IntroductiontoMLB.........................................................................................................123

9.DFSGlossary.....................................................................................................................133

Contributors.........................................................................................................................142

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Foreword

ByJoeBryantandDavidDoddsWelcome,Footballguy!Ifyou’rereadingabookforeword,you’reourkindofguy—thekindwhowantstoknoweverything.You’regoingtolovethisbook.DailyFantasySports(DFS)isthebiggestthingtohitfantasyfootballsince,well,fantasyfootball.DFShasexplodedinpopularityandhaseveryoneinourvibrantcommunitytalking.It’sclearlynolongerthenewgameintown;it’sthepreferredwaytoplayfantasyfootballforagrowingnumberofpeople.AndFootballguysisheretogiveyoutheedgeyouneedtodominate.Inmanyways,DFSiscomplementarytoseason-longfantasyfootball,asdetailedandaccuratestatisticalprojectionsarethefoundationforboth.That’sgreatnews,asFootballguyshasaproventrackrecordofaccurateprojections,butthere’smuchmoretoconsistentlywinningDFSthanjustgoodprojections.Justlikewiththeseason-longgame,it’snotonlyabouttheprojections;it’saboutwhatyoudowiththem.Andasthegamebecomesmorepopular,thecompetitionbecomesmoreintense.Now,morethanever,youneedanedgetowin.Withthisbook,we’regivingyouthatedge.We’regoingtotellyouindetailwhatwe’vedonetoconsistentlywininDailyFantasyFootball.Butfirst,letustellyouhowwegothere.Since2000,Footballguyshasbeeninstrumentalinhelpingoursubscriberswintheirleagues.Fromlocalleagueswithmodestentryfeestothehighestofhigh-stakesleagueswithhundredsofthousandsofdollarsontheline,Footballguyshasbeenthego-tosecretweaponforwinners.WhenDFScameontothesceneafewyearsago,wequicklyrealizeditwasheretostay.Twoyearsago,oneofus,DavidDodds,deposited$50,000ofhisownmoneyintoFanDuelandsetouttolearntheinsandoutsofDFS,knowinghe’dacceleratethelearningcurvewithskininthegame.Daviddocumentedhisthoughtsandprocessesalongthewayonhisblog:http://50percentds.blogspot.com.TosayDavidhasbeensuccessfulisanunderstatement.Inhisfirsttwoyears,heearnedmorethan$63,000inprofitfromFanDuel’sdailyfantasyfootballcontests.

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Nowwe’rereadytosharewhatwe’velearnedwithyou—andnotjustDavid’slessons.ThestrengthofFootballguyshasalwaysbeenourteam.OurstaffboastssomeofthebestDFSmindsinthegame,includingfivemorestaffersaddedthisyeardedicatedtotheDailygames.ThisbookisacollaborativeeffortfromtheFootballguysteam,puttingourheadstogetherwithonegoalinmind:deliveringyouthekeystohelpyouconsistentlydominateDFSfootball.Mostsectionswerewrittenbytwo-manteamsofstafferswithinputfromanother20staffersalongtheway.Twoheadsarebetterthanone.Inourcase,22headsarebetterthantwoaswe’vecrackedthecodeforwinningandwe’resharingitwithoursubscribers.Whyshare?It’safairquestion.WillwewinlessplayingDFSourselvesbysharingoursecrets?Probably.Bythesametoken,however,we’llbesmilingeartoearwhenwehearoneofoursubscribersjustcashedfor$100,000inabigguaranteedprizepool.OurbusinessatFootballguysishelpingourcustomerswin.Period.Sorestassuredthatnothingisheldbackaswe’relayingeverythingwehaveonthetabletohelpyouwin.That’stheFootballguysway.Andit’llgetevenbetterwithyourhelp.Justaswecollaborativelycreatedthecontenthere,Ihavenodoubtwe’llrefineitfurther.Youcanhelpbysubmittingfeedbackandcriticismathttp://footballguys.com/fdbook.php.Wewelcomedisagreementanddiscussion.Footballguyshasalwaysbeenaboutourcommunity,andmanyofourbestfeaturesovertheyearshaveevolvedfromdiscussionandfeedbackfromoursubscribers.Thisbookwillbenodifferent,soletusknowwhatyouthink.Withallduerespecttotheotherbooksoutthere,wethinkthisisthebestbookeverwrittenonDFS.Withyourhelp,itcanbeevenbetter.Let’shearit.Andwiththat,let’sjumpin.Goodluckandmayallthebouncesgoyourway!JoeBryant&DavidDoddsOwners,Footballguys.com

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1.Introduction

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1.1.FantasyFootball

ByJoeBryant

“Whatalongstrangetripit’sbeen...”—TheGratefulDead

Theyearwas1988.KenGriffeyJr.wascalled“TheKid”notbecauseitwasacatchynickname.Butbecausehewas19yearsold.ThetopNFLquarterbackslookedlikeaCBSsetwithBoomerEsiason,DanMarino,andPhilSimmsatoptheleaderboards.Yes,thoseguysplayed.Andprettywell.RobGronkowski,AndrewLuck,andRussellWilsonhadn’tbeenbornyet.NeitherhadtheWorldWideWeb.Onthefamiliarside,ChrisBermanwasalreadyatESPN.Andhishairwasglorious.FantasySportswasclawingitswayoutoftheprimordialsoupwithanestimated500,000peopleparticipatingin1988.Theexactoriginsoffantasysportsareabitmurky.Forme(andagreatmanyothers)theworkofDanielOkrentandhisRotisserieLeagueBaseballbookwasthegatewaydowntherabbit

hole.Theymadepopulartheconceptofdraftingplayersandmanagingateam.Finallywehadananswerto“CouldyourunateambetterthanMargeSchott?”Andletmetellyousomethingelse.Fantasysportsweren'tquiteascoolbackthen.Neitherwasbeinganentrepreneur.Andthatwasmeonbothcounts.In1988,fantasysportshadalmostasmuchincommonwithDungeons&DragonsastheydidSportsCenter.Andtheguysbecomingentrepreneursweretheguyswhocouldn’tlandjobsatIBM.Today,fantasysportshavebeenfeaturedonthecoverofTheWallStreetJournal;andTVshowslikeSharkTanktoptheratingsbyglorifyingsmallbusinesses.Iliketosayitjusttookawhileforsocietytocatchup.

Todaytherearemorethan57millionpeopleplayingfantasysportsinNorthAmerica,accordingtotheFantasySportsTradeAssociation.Andthatnumberisgrowing.

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Why?Becauseofpeoplelikeyou.Andme.Andprettymuchmosteveryoneyouknow.Playingfantasysportsisfunbecauseitscratchestheitchmostofushave—callingtheshots.We’veallfeltthestingasourfavoriteteamletsitsbestplayergetaway.Orpayswaytoomuchforthewasheduphas-been.Orpassesonthehidden-gemrookietodraftthecombinestarwhoweknowwillbeoutoftheleagueinthreeyears.Withfantasysports,forbetterorforworse,wearetheDecider.

Wemakethecalls,gettheglorywhenwe’reright,andblameunforeseenforceswhenwe’rewrong.PrettymuchlikerealNFLOwnersandGMs.Asthehobbygrew,fantasyfootballownerswouldgatherinthesummeranddrafttheirteams.Oncetheseasonwasunderway,they’dscourthewaiverwiretryingtoseparatetheone-weekwondersfromthedevelopingtrends.Allthewhiletradingplayerswithasmuchdeception,cunning,anddeceitastheirmoralscouldstand.Anditwasgood.

Variationsoftheseason-longformatinevitablydeveloped,mostnotablythroughtheuseofdifferentscoringsystems.Basicleagueswouldawardpointstoplayersforjustactualscoringplays.Thencamemoreperformance-basedscoringsystemswhereplayerscouldearnpointsforyardsgainedorreceptionsorfumblesrecovered.Orprettymuchanythingyouliked.Alongwiththeevolutioninscoringsystemscamechangesinrosterrequirements.Someleagueslikedtostarttwowidereceivers.Somepreferredthreewidereceivers.SomeleagueslovedaflexplayerwhocouldbeWRorTE.Ofcourse,somethenpushedtheflexevenfurthertoincludeRB/WR/TE.Andwhenfansofdefensefeltleftout,leaguesadoptedrulestoincludeIndividualDefensivePlayers(IDP).Nottomentionthevariationsforassigningplayers.Mostleaguespreferredadraftsystem.Butmanyleaguessworebyanauctionformat.Andbothformatswouldallowsomedegreeofdynasty-buildingwhereplayersarecarriedoverfromyeartoyear.Thebeautyoffantasysportssoonbecameevidentinthatyourleaguecouldcreatewhateversystemyouwanted.Thiswasyourleagueandthatmeantyoubuiltitthewayyouwanted.Andthatwasgoodtoo.Evenwithallthevariationsinscoringandformat,thecommonfactorremainedthatthefantasyseasonmirroredtheNFLseasonforthemostpart.ThefantasyseasonstartedwithWeek1oftheNFLseasonandfinishedusuallyinWeek16or17oftherealseason.

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Thencametherubthatoftenrearsitshead:sometimesbadthingshappen.IfyouspentatononTomBradyin2008,JamaalCharlesin2011orAdrianPetersonin2014,yourseasonwasinserioustroublenearlybeforeitstarted.Andthatwasnotsogood.Fantasyownersbegantoaskifthereweren'tabetterwaytoplay.FanDuelofferedacompellinganswer.Withtheadventofthedailyformat,fantasyownerswerenolongersaddledforanentireseasonwithapoordraftchoice.Andownerswereneversnipedbyarivalstealingacovetedplayerbeforetheirdraftturn.FanDuelsetsalarieseachweekforeveryplayeranditwasuptoeachownertocraftalineupunderthesalarycap.Andownerscouldplayasmuchoraslittleastheywanted.Wasitsuccessful?FanDuelstartedinthesummerof2009andhadonlyafewthousandactiveusersupuntil2011.Bytheendof2011,thepaidactiveusershadgrowntojustover17,000andtheyeclipsed$1millioninrevenue.Today,FanDuelhasmillionsofactiveusers.I’dsayitwassuccessful.Andcontinuestobe.ThispastDecember,120qualifyingfinalistscaughtpassesfromJoeMontanaandDanMarinoattheFanDuelWorldFantasyFootballChampionshipinSanDiego.Roman“Longbottoms”Edmundtookhomethe$3milliontopprize.Anditdoesn’tlooklikethemomentumisslowinganytimesoon.Thedailyspacecontinuestogrowasmorepeoplejumpbothintofantasysportsasawholeandspecificallyintothedaily-gameformat.Ifyou’vereadthisfar,I’massumingyou’reoneofthose.Welcomeandlet’sgetbusy.

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1.2.WhatisDFS?

ByMarkWimerandJustinBonnemaReadersnewtodailyfantasysports(DFS)areencouragedtoskimtheglossarybeginningonpage133beforecontinuing.We'vetriednottolitterthisbookwithunnecessaryjargon,buttheregularuseofcertaintermsspecifictothishobbyprovedunavoidable.Dailyfantasysportsareaspin-offoftraditionalfantasysports,buteachcompetitionlastssomewherebetweenafewhoursandafewdaysratherthanawholeseason.Andinsteadofusingasnakeorauctiondrafttoallocateplayers,DFSownersselectanycombinationofplayerstheywantsolongastheyfitunderthesalarycap.Salarycapisthekeyconcept.Allownershavefullaccesstothesamepoolofplayers,meaningmultipleteamsmay,asanexample,selectAntonioBrown(thenumberoftimesagivenplayerisselectedinacontestisreferredtoasownershippercentageorexposure,whichwe’lldiscussinlaterchapters).FanDuelNFLcontestshavea$60,000salarycapandrequireninestarters:onequarterback,tworunningbacks,threewidereceivers,onetightend,onekicker,andonedefense.Yourgoalistobuildacompetitivelineupwithoutexceedingthecap.Asyoucanimagine,starplayerscostalotmorethanaverageplayers.WhatmakesDFSsomuchfunisfindingabalancebetweenthetwo.FanDuelgeneratessalariesthatmakeitimpossibleforanyonetobuildoflineupofonlystarplayers.Skillfulcontestantsexcelatbargainhuntingandfindingvalue.Onamacrolevel,DFSisnotallthatdifferentthanseason-longleagues.Whiletheendgoalofseason-longistobechampioncomeseason’sclose,it’sstillaseriesofweeklygames.Nowimagineifeveryweekyourleaguereleasedallplayersintoapoolandredrafted,usingtheparametersdescribedabove.That’sthespiritofDFS.Allfantasyplayershavethesameopportunity,withwinnersdecidedbythetotalpointseachlineupgenerates,andareawardedapredeterminedprize.Sohowmuchdoesitcosttoplay?Technically,nothing.Therearefreeplaycontestsalmosteveryweekopentoallusers.Butifyouwanttoconvertyourfavoritehobbyintoapotentialstreamofincome,you’llneedtomakeadepositandplayinreal-moneycontests.

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Howmuchtoinvestisentirelyuptotheuser.Somemayplaywith$100,others$10,000ormore.Mostsiteshaveaminimumdepositamount,anywherefrom$5to$10,butafterthatit’swhateveryoucanaffordandwhateveryou’recomfortablewith.What’smoreimportantthanhowmuchyoudepositishowyoumanagethatdeposittogetareturnonyourinvestment.We’llcoverbankrollmanagementinSection5.3.Fornow,allyouneedtoknowisdailysportsworkslikeasmallbusinesswhereyouaretheCEOandCFO.Youdecidehowmuchtoinvest,wheretoinvest,andwhentocashout.SohowdoyoumakemoneyplayingDFS?Thatisagreatquestion—andit’swhatthisbookisprimarilyabout.Honestly,youareprobablynotgoingtobecomeamillionaire,andyou’lllikelyhavetokeepyourjobnomatterhowgoodyouareatfantasyfootball.ButthegreatthingisthatDFSprovidesanopportunitytoconvertfantasyfootballfromjustahobbyintoaprofitableventure,possiblyevenintoacareer.ProfitinginDFSisacomplicatedbusiness.It’smorethanjustselectingthebestplayersandthrowingoutabunchoflineupseachweek.Severalfactorsplayastrategicrole,includingsalaryallocation,gameselection,andbankrollmanagement.Andastheindustrygrows—asitsurelywill—thecompetitionwillgettougher.Readingthepagesthatfollowwillgoalongwaytowardstayingaheadofthecurve.

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1.3.AdvantagesofDFSOverTraditionalLeagues

ByAustinLeeWeloveplayingseason-longfantasyfootball,especiallywhenit’swithagroupofpeoplewhoarecompetitive,fun,andenjoythesameleaguesetupaswedo.Eveninouridealleague,however,thereareseveralaspectsoftraditionalfantasyleaguesthatbugus.TheterrificthingaboutDailyFantasySportsisthatitgetsridofalmostallofthoseannoyanceswithoutsacrificingtheaspectsofthegamewelove.DFSoffersimmediacy,simplicity,andflexibilitythatyear-longleaguescan’tcompetewith.Theimmediategratificationofdailyfantasyiseasytoidentify.Youcangofrombuy-intowinnerinasinglethree-hourgameslateonSundays.Thelongestgameslatesusuallymaxoutat100hoursfromthestartofThursdayNightFootballtothecompletionofMondayNightFootball.You’rebeholdentoeachteamyoucreateforlessthanfivedays,andthenyoutossitasidewithoutthinkingtwiceaboutit.Injuriesandunderperformingplayersarewipedcleanfromyourslateinsteadofbeingayear-longdrain.DFSisabigwinwhenitcomestoshortcommitmentsandquickpayouts.

Dailyfantasyalsosimplifiestheannoyinglogistics,whichyou’llespeciallyappreciateifyou’veeverbeenthecommissionerofaseason-longleague.Youdon’thavetocreatealeagueconstitution,pesterpeopleformoney,orchasedowndeadbeatmanagerswhostartbye-weekplayers.Fightingaboutcollusion,vetoes,andfairnessalldisappearbecausetheDFShostsitehandlesallofthecommissionerdutiesforyou.Theirrulesarefair,clearlyexplained,andhavebeenperfectedovermanyyears.DFSclearsthewaysothattheonlydramayoufaceisonthefootballfield.

Thebiggestareawheredailyfantasyshinesisinitsflexibility.Youhavetoalwaysbeonyourtoestowinyourseason-longleague,beatingyourcompetitiontothelatestnews,thebesttrades,andthehottestpickups.Youandyourcompetitionconstantlyfighttobeateachothertothepunch.Conversely,withDFSyoucanplayonyourschedule.Ifyoulike,youcancompletelyignorefootballfromTuesdaytoSaturdayanddoallofyourpreparationonSundaymornings.There’snorushbecauseeveryonecanownthesameplayer.You’renolongeraslavetothewaiversscheduleortimedtraderesponses.

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Havearemoteweekendgetawayplanned?Skipaweek.Whenyou’rereadytojoinacontest,youdon’thavetocoordinatewithanyone.It’seasytofindagame,andyoudon’tneedanevennumberofteams.Youcanplayagainstoneopponentor100,000opponents.It’syourchoice.Withdailyfantasyyouneverfeel“outofit”withayear-longteamthathasaterriblefirsthalfoftheseason.Youdon’targueaboutthe

lopsidedratioofpointsfortopointsagainstanditsimpactonyourleaguestandings.Youdon’tgetburnedbyabadplayoffmatchuponyourepicchampionshiprun.DFSisthefaster,simpler,moreflexibleversionofthefantasyfootballgamethatyou’velovedforyears.Itdoesn’thavetoreplaceyourseason-longleagues,butitofferswelcomevariety.

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1.4.FanDuelHistoryandPositionintheIndustry

ByKyleWachtelandAustinLeeInJanuaryof2008,theteambehindFanDueloriginallycreatedHubdub.com,whichessentiallyturnednewsintoagamebyallowinguserstopredictfutureevents.Atthe2009SouthbySouthwestFestivalinAustin,Texas,thefounderschoseanewdirection:dailyfantasysports.BackedbySeriesAfundingof$1.2millionfromPentechVenturesandScottishEnterprise,FanDuelwasborn,launchinginJuneof2009.WhileFanDuelwasnotthefirstdailyfantasysite,ithasbeenthetruepioneer,leadingthechargeinoneofthefastestgrowingareasoffantasysports.NigelEccles,FanDuel’sCEO,hasbeenreferredtoasthe“GodfatherofDailyFantasySports.”FanDuelisanofficialpartneroftheNationalBasketballAssociationandhasexclusiveallianceswith16NBAteamsand15NationalFootballLeaguefranchises.

Withitsrapidgrowth,theprizepoolsforFanDuel’spremiertournamentshaveskyrocketed.ThelivefinalfortheinauguralFanDuelFantasyFootballChampionship(FFFC)in2010offered$50,000inprizes,whilethe2015FanDuelWorldFantasyFootballChampionship(WFFC)awardedawhopping$12millioninprizes,including$3milliontofirstplacealone.

FanDuelfounderandCEONigelEccles

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2.TypesofContests

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2.1.TheBasics

ByRyanHesterandAustinLeeBeforecoveringthedifferenttypesofcontestsordivingdeeplyintostrategy,let’sgetyougroundedinthebasics.EachFanDuelfootballlineupthatyoubuildhasspecificrosterrequirementsandasalarycap.Avalidlineuphasonequarterback,tworunningbacks,threewidereceivers,onetightend,onekicker,andoneteamdefense.

Thetopplayerscanhavesalariesover$10,000,whileplayersexpectedtoscorefewfantasypointscanberosteredforthe$4,500minimum.Youmustfilleverypositioninyourlineupwithoutgoingoverthe$60,000salarycap.Yourlineupcanalwaystotallessthan$60,000,butifyougooverthelimitorfailtofillalloftherosterspots,yourlineupwillnotbeaccepted.

2.1.1.Scoring

Thelineupthatyoucreateaccumulatesfantasypointsaccordingtothescoringsystemoutlinedbelow.Yourlineup’spointtotaliscomparedtothescoresofyouropponents’lineupsinthesamecontest.Themorepointsyourteamscores,thebetteryourchancesofwinning.FanDuel’sscoringsystemisprettystandard,butit’simportanttokeepthehalfpointperreceptioninmindwhenevaluatingplayers.

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Offense Points Defense Points

rushing/receivingyard 0.1

sack 1rushing/receivingtouchdown 6

recoveringopponent'sfumble 2

reception 0.5

safety 2passingyard 0.04

blockedkick 2

passingtouchdown 4

extrapointreturn 2interception -1

interception 2

fumblelost -2

fumble/interceptionreturntouchdown 6rushing/receiving/passing2-ptconversion 2

kickoff/puntreturntouchdown 6

kickoff/punt-returntouchdown 6

0pointsallowed 10ownfumblerecoveredfortouchdown 6

1-6pointsallowed 7

fieldgoalmadefrom0-39yards 3

7-13pointsallowed 4fieldgoalmadefrom40-49yards 4

14-20pointsallowed 1

fieldgoalmadefrom50+yards 5

28-34pointsallowed -1extra-pointconversion 1

35+pointsallowed -4

PlayingatFanDuelmeansmakingalotofchoices.Youcanchoosehowoftenyouplay,howmanyopponentsyoucompetewith,andhowmuchtimeandmoneyyouinvest.Entryfeesrangefrom$0.25to$10,600,andyoucanevenwinrealmoneyplayinginfreeplaycontests.FanDuelalsoallowsyoutocreateyourownpublicorprivatecontests.Themajorityofdailyfantasycontestsfallintotwocategories:cashgamesandtournaments.Cashgamesofferaconservativeinvestment.Tournamentsarehardertowinbuthavehugeprizes.Botharefuntoplay,buttheyrequiredifferentapproaches.Thenexttwosectionswillhelpyouunderstandcashgamesandtournaments,andthevarietyofcontestsavailablewithineachcategory.

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2.2.CashGames

ByChadParsonsandMaurileTremblaySeveraltypesofdailyfantasycontestscanbebroadlyclassifiedascashgames.Thesecontestsaresaferinvestmentsandofferlowerbankrollvolatilitythantournaments.Allcashgamesmeetthefollowingthreecriteria:

1. Eachprizeislessthanorequaltodoubletheentryfee.2. Theprizepoolislevel.Allwinnersearnthesameprizeregardlessofwhethertheyhave

thehighest-scoringteamorthelowest-scoringteaminthepayoutzone.3. Morethan40%oftheentrantswinaprize.

FanDuelhostsfourkindsofcashgames:50/50s,DoubleUps,head-to-heads,andmatrixcontests.

2.2.1.50/50s

50/50contestsareoneofthemoststraightforwardofferingsinDFS.Regardlessofthesizeofthecontest,theteamsthatscoreinthetop50%ofthefieldwillcash.Winnersdoubletheirmoney,minusFanDuel’scommission.FanDuel’scommissionvariesfromcontesttocontest,but

if10%,youwouldget$1.80forwinninga50/50witha$1entryfee.Because50/50winnerstypicallyseeanetprofitof80%oftheirbuy-in,they’llhavetowinatleast55.6%ofthetimetogrowtheirbankroll.50/50contestsofferavarietyofcompetition.Noprofessionalhigh-volumeplayercanscoopallofyouraction,soit’seasiertoavoidone-on-oneactionagainstthesharks.Playitsafebyrosteringconsistent,low-riskplayers.

FanDueloffershundredsof50/50contestseachweekoftheNFLseason.From$1allthewayuptohigh-stakesentryfees,50/50scanquicklybecomethestapleofamedium-tohigh-volumeDFScash-gameplayer.

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2.2.2.DoubleUps

DoubleUpsarecloserelativesof50/50s.While50/50sofferprizesoflessthandoubleaplayer’sentryfee,DoubleUpsofferwinners100%returns.Thetradeoffislessthanhalfofthefieldwins.Forexample,ifFanDuel’scommissionis10%,45winnerswilldoubletheirmoneyina100-playercontest.BecauseFanDueltypicallycreatesDoubleUpcontestswithahighermaximumnumberofcompetitorsthan50/50s,andbecausetheprizepoolsinDoubleUpsareguaranteed,DoubleUpsarelistedintheirTournamentssectioneventhoughDoubleUpsdon’thaveatournament-styleprizestructure.Whenchoosingbetweensimilarcashgames,playthelargerfield.Whilethereareboundtobeafewmoresharksinthewater,theirpresenceismorethanoffsetbyplentyofnewplayersandweaklineupspaddingthebottomoftheleaderboard.

2.2.3.Head-to-Heads

Head-to-headcashgamesarebasicallytwo-person50/50contests.Theypitonepersonagainstanother,andthehigherscorewins.Thissimplicityhasprosandcons.Ahead-to-headplayercanwindow-shoptheavailablelistings.Youcanclickonplayerprofilestoscoutforless-experiencedopponentsandspreadoutentriesoverthecourseoftheweek.Alternatively,creatingyourownhead-to-headcontestsopensyouuptoasharkscoopingupone—orall—ofyourlistings,puttingyouatadisadvantageoutofthegate.Ifyouaregoingtoenterthesamelineupinmultiplecontests,enteringhead-to-headcontestswillreduceyourvariance(i.e.,risk)comparedtoenteringlarge50/50sorDoubleUps.Thisisbecausethescorerequiredtowinonelarge50/50willgenerallybeveryclosetothescorerequiredtowinanyotherlarge50/50.Soifyouenterthesamelineupinmultiplelarge50/50s,youarelikelytoeitherwinprettymuchallofthemorloseprettymuchallofthem,dependingonhowmanypointsyourteamscores.ThesameistrueforDoubleUps.Butthescorerequiredtowindifferenthead-to-headmatchupsmayvarygreatlybecauseyourdifferentopponentswillscoredifferentnumbersofpoints.Soevenifyourteamscoresthesamenumberofpointsineachcontest,itislikelythatyouwillwinsomewherearound,say,40%or(morehopefully)60%ofyourcontests,insteadofallornothing.

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Assessingtheweek’spricingcaninfluencethetypesofcontestsaDFSplayerwillenter.Ifyou’reexcitedaboutthevaluesofasmalllistofplayers,youmightconsiderhavinglessvarietyinyourlineupsandenteringmorehead-to-headcontests.Ontheotherhand,ifyouseealotofvaluesandwanttogenerateawidevarietyoflineups,you’llprobablyentermore50/50sandDoubleUps.

2.2.4.Head-to-HeadMatrixContests

Thehead-to-headmatrixcontestsuseaformatwhichessentiallypackagesagroupofhead-to-headcontestsintooneentry.Asanexample,let’sconsidera21-playerhead-to-headmatrixcontestwitha$25entryfee.Inthiscontest,youwouldbefacing20uniqueopponentswheretheprizestructuremimicsthepayoutsyou’dreceiveifyouplayedeachofthose20playersina$1.25head-to-headcontest.Thispayoutstructuresoftenstheblowofabadshowing,butthetradeoffisifyoufinishinthetophalf(butnotinfirstplace),youwillwinlessthanyouwouldhavewonina50/50.Matricesaretheconservative,mutualfundinvestmentsoftheDFSworld.They’retheone-stopshopforhead-to-headdiversity,whichcansavetimebetterspentbuildinglineups,researchingmatchups,andminingthebestvalueplaysoftheweek.MatrixcontestscanbefoundusingFanDuel’sLeaguesfilter.

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2.3.Tournaments

ByJohnLeeandJeffPasquinoIfyou’repracticingsoundbankrollmanagement,cashgameswillrepresent80-90%ofyourweeklyaction,butit’stheother10-20%ofyourplayintournamentsthatcanchangeyourlifeinaninstant.Tournamentsliveontheoppositeendoftherisk-rewardspectrumfromcashgamesandmeetthefollowingthreecriteria:

1. Theprizepoolisguaranteed.Evenifthecontestdoesn’tcompletelyfill,theguaranteedprizepool(GPP)willstillpayoutthetopfinishersasifthecontestwerefilledcompletely.Forthisreason,peopleoftenrefertotournamentsasGPPseventhoughsomecashgamesalsohaveguaranteedprizepools.

2. Theprizepoolisnotlevel.It’stiered,withfirstplacereceivingthelargestprizeandthentheprizesdescenddownward.

3. Fewerthan30%oftheentrantswinaprize.Thesmallesttournamentsusuallyhavenofewerthan45entrantsandarereservedfortheheftiestbuy-ins.Thelargestcontestsexceed100,000entries,andthebuy-insforthesemassive

tournamentsgenerallyrangefrom$1to$25.Theprizestructurewillvaryfromcontesttocontest,soreadthedetailscarefullybeforeentering.Playingintournamentscanbeabitdauntingatfirstwiththousandsofentriesandatop-heavyprizestructure.Sometimesyou’llhaveastrongweekandstillnotcash.That’swhyit’swisetospendasmallpercentageofyourbankrollontournaments,butdon’tavoidthementirely.Prizepoolshavegrownrapidlyovertheyears,andthelargest

tournamentsnowawardseveralmilliondollarsinprizes.Since2010,FanDuelhasbeenofferingatriptocompeteintheirannualFanDuelWorldFantasyFootballChampionship(WFFC)livefinal,whichisthegranddaddyofallfootballcontests.Lastyear’swinnertookhomeawhopping$3millionafterplayingcatchwithJoeMontanaandDanMarino.

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Inlatersections,we’lloutlineplentyofstrategiesforincreasingyouroddsofatop-tiertournamentfinish,butlet’sfirsttakeatourofsomeofFanDuel’stourneys:

Entry Players Total Prizes TopPrize Winners Rake$1 1149 $1,149 $1,000 $100 18.0% 13.0%$1 5747 $5,747 $5,000 $400 18.1% 13.0%$1 34,479 $34,479 $30,000 $2,500 17.9% 13.0%$2 574 $1,148 $1,000 $125 18.1% 12.9%$2 11,494 $22,988 $20,000 $2,000 16.5% 13.0%$2 57,471 $114,942 $100,000 $8,000 18.7% 13.0%$5 229 $1,145 $1,000 $150 18.3% 12.7%$5 919 $4,595 $4,000 $500 17.2% 12.9%$5 4,597 $22,985 $20,000 $1,750 15.5% 13.0%

$10 114 $1,140 $1,000 $200 18.4% 12.3%$10 1,379 $13,790 $12,000 $2,000 14.1% 13.0%$10 2,298 $22,980 $20,000 $2,000 18.6% 13.0%$25 45 $1,125 $1,000 $300 17.8% 11.1%$25 6,896 $172,400 $150,000 $20,000 18.2% 13.0%$50 45 $2,250 $2,000 $600 17.8% 11.1%$50 224 $11,200 $10,000 $1,000 19.6% 10.7%

$100 61 $6,100 $5,500 $1,200 16.4% 9.8%$200 555 $111,000 $100,000 $15,000 18.2% 9.9%$535 20 $10,700 $10,000 $4,500 20.0% 6.5%

$1,065 50 $53,250 $50,000 $15,000 18.0% 6.1%Total/Avg: 6417 $615,113 $543,500 14.2% 17.8% 11.6%Thisisn’tanexhaustivetable,butitshowsFanDuel’svarietyoftournamentsizesandbuy-inamountswhilehighlightingsomeprizestructuresimilarities.Allwinnersinthesecontestswillatleastdoubletheirmoney,whichisn’talwaysthecasewithtournamentsonotherhostsites.

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Roughly18%ofentrantswillwin,andfirstplacewillwalkawaywithabout14%ofthetotalprizepool.FanDuel’scommissionstartsat13%,dropsdramaticallyforhigh-rollers,andislessthan12%overthisentiresample.Inordertoachievethesemassiveprizepools,DFSsitesoftenallowmulti-entering,whichletsasinglepersonentermultiplerostersintothesamecontestinordertoincreasetheiroddsofwinningthegrandprize.Thispracticeisoftenfrowneduponbynovicesbecauseitwouldappeartobeanunfairadvantageforthoseplayingwithlargebankrolls,butdon’tletmulti-entryintimidateyou.Multi-enteringisbasedonbuildingadditionallineupsthataresuboptimal.Ifyouentermorethanonelineupintoacontest,everyentryafterthefirstonewillincludeplayerswhoyouoriginallythoughtwouldbelesslikelytowinthetournament.Inalatersection,we’lltalkaboutthesweetspotforthenumberofrostersthatwillincreaseyouroddsofwinningalargeGPP,butfornowjustknowthatthereisathresholdfordiminishingreturns.Ifthenotionofcompetingagainstmultipleentriesfromasinglepersondissuadesyoufromenteringsuchcontests,youcanentersingle-entrycontestsinstead.Justknowthattheprizepoolsforsingle-entrytournamentswon’tbenearlyasbigastheepic,multi-entrycontests.

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2.4.Hybrids

ByJohnLeeandJeffPasquinoMostofDFSfocusesoncashgamesandtournaments,butthereareafewothertypesofconteststhatarehybridsofthosetwoclassifications.Multipliers,leagues,andsatelliteshaveuniquesetupsthatcombineelementsfromthecashgameandtournamentworlds.Dependingonhowtop-heavythepayoutstructureis,you’llhavetoblendcashgameandtournamentstrategytoincreaseyouroddsofwinning.

2.4.1.Multipliers

Wealreadydiscussedonetypeofmultipliercontest,theDoubleUpcashgame.TheothertwotypesofmultipliersthatFanDuelhosts,triple-upsandquintuple-ups,arehybridsbecausetheyhavealevelprizestructurelikeacashgame,butlessthanathirdoftheplayersgetpaid,similartoatournament.Multipliersareusually—ifnotalways—guaranteed,andyoucanfindthemallinFanDuel’sTournamentssection.Inatriple-up—alsoknownasa3xcontest—thetop30%ofthefieldwilltripletheirmoney,making200%profit.Inaquintuple-up,roughlythetop18%ofthecompetitorswillwinfivetimestheirentryfee,yieldinga400%profit.

2.4.2.Leagues

FanDuelrunsleagueswith3,5,10,20,and100players.Leaguesdon’tmeetthetournamentdefinitionweoutlinedpreviouslybecausetheirprizepoolsaren’tguaranteed.Iftheydon’tfill,they’recancelled,andeveryonehastheirentryfeefullyrefunded.Leaguesdon’thavealevelpayoutstructure,butthepayoutsinlargercontestsaresometimessteeplytiered.Asyoucanseeinthetablebelow,theprizestructureisabittop-heavy,evencomparedtosometournaments.Leaguesaresortoflikenon-guaranteedtournamentsdesignedforamuchsmallerfield.

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FanDuelLeaguePayoutsBasedonNumberofPlayers:

Themultipliersrefertohowmucheachplacewinscomparedtotheirentryfee.Forexample,thewinnerofathree-personleaguewitha$1entryfeewillwin$2.70fora170%profit.Theother$0.30isFanDuel’s10%commission.Youcancreatecustompublicorprivateleagueswithanywherefrom3to20players,soagroupoffriendscouldplaytheirownleaguecontestwiththeresultscalculatedbyFanDuel.Alsobeawarethatsome100-personleaguesallowmulti-entry.

2.4.3.Satellites

Asatellitecontest—or“satty”asit’scalledintheindustry—isaspecialkindofhybridcontestthatusuallyrequiresatournament-styleapproachtowinning,butthestrategycanvaryagreatdealfromcontesttocontest.Satellitesoriginallybecamepopularinthepokerworldwhenbuy-insforcertaintournamentswereprohibitivelyhigh.Asasolutiontoallowlower-bankrolledplayerstoenterthosehigh-dollartournaments,casinos—andlater,onlinesites—offeredsatellitetournamentswheretheprizeforwinningwasnotacashprize,butinsteadanentryintoahigh-dollartournament.Liketournaments,satellitesareguaranteedandusuallypayasmallpercentageofthefield;butlikecashgames,thepayoutislevelforthosewhofinishamongthewinners.Thelevelpayoutcomesintheformticketsforahigher-pricedtournament.FanDueloffersnumeroussatelliteseveryweekoftheNFLseason,andtheyoffersignificantupsideatminimalrisk.Forexample,ifapersonwinsa10-personsatellitefor$11,hecouldturnthesubsequententryintoa$100tournamentintotensofthousandsofdollarswithoutriskingmorethantheoriginal$11.

Players: 3 5 10 20 1002.7x 4.5x 4.5x 10x 25x— — 2.7x 5x 15x— — 1.8x 3x 10x

— — — 8x— — — 6x

— — 5x— — 4x— — 4x— — 4x— — 3x

— 3x— 3x— —

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5th

6th

7th

8th

9th

10th

11th

12th

13th

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Thereareavarietyofsatellites,soit’simportanttounderstandeachcontest’sprizestructure.ThetablebelowcomparestwosetsofFanDuelsatellites.Youcanwina$25ticketbyenteringasatelliteinthe$2to$10range,oryoucouldaimfora$200ticketbywinninga$2to$50contest.SampleofFanDuelSatelliteContests

Entry Players Total #ofTickets TicketValue Winners Rake$2 359 $718 25 $25 7.0% 13.0%$3 239 $717 25 $25 10.5% 12.8%$5 143 $715 25 $25 17.5% 12.6%

$10 71 $710 25 $25 35.2% 12.0%$2 229 $458 2 $200 0.9% 12.7%

$10 114 $1,140 5 $200 4.4% 12.3%$25 45 $1,125 5 $200 11.1% 11.1%$50 22 $1,100 5 $200 22.7% 9.1%

Avg:

13.7% 11.9%Thesecontestshaveanincrediblybroadrangeofwinningpercentages.Youcouldtrytofinishinsidethetop1%ofa229-personcontesttoturnyour$2intoa$200ticket,oryoucouldbeatjust65%ofthefieldina$10contesttowina$25ticket.Theseextremescallforverydifferentstrategies,andthistablerepresentsjustasmallsampleofhowsatellitesaresetup.Besurethatyouunderstandthepayoutstructurebeforecraftingyourlineup.Satellitesalmostalwaysallowmultipleentries,andthesharksusethisoptionliberally.Inmosttournaments,peoplewillenteravarietyoflineupsintothesamecontest,butwhenenteringsatellites,itcanbemorebeneficialtouseamulti-entrystrategyknownas“runningatrain.”Thismeansputtingtogetherasinglerosterthatyoulikeandenteringitmultipletimesintothesamesatellitecontest.Thetheorybehindthispracticeisthatyoucansecurealargequantityofentriesintoabigtournamentatareducedpriceifthatsinglerosterdoeswellinthesatellite.Forexample,ifyouentera10-teamtrainintoasatellitethatpaystothe200thposition,andyourentryfinishes150th,thenyourtenteamswouldfinish151st,152nd,andsoontothe159thposition,therebysecuringtenseatsinthesubsequenttournament.Runningatrainissomewhatriskybecauseitrepresentsanall-or-nothingapproachtosecuringentriesintoamoreexpensivetournament,butalongwiththatriskcomesimmenseupside.Fromabankrollmanagementperspective,satellitesshouldbegroupedwithtournaments,andyoushouldlimityourexposuretosatellitestolessthan20%ofyourbankroll.

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Whilerunningatrainisaneffectivestrategyforaccumulatingentriesviasatellites,it’saterriblepracticefortop-heavy,non-levelpayoutstructures.Why?Thelikelihoodoffinishinginthetoptenofagianttournamentisextremelylow—lessthan0.05%inmostcases—andsubmittingmultipleentrieswiththesamerostergivesyouthesameoddsofwinningasenteringasinglerosterwiththosesameplayers.Ifthewinnertakeshomemorethan20%oftheprizepool,theresimplyisn’tenoughleftfortheotherhigh-levelfinisherstosubstantiaterunningtrainsintothattypeofcontest.

Keepinmindthatyou'repayingacommissioninboththesatelliteandinthetournamentthatitfeedsinto,sotheeffectivetotalcommissionwillgenerallybeover20%.Ifsatellitesareagoodvalue,it'sbecauseyouraverageopponentinasatelliteisweakerthanyouraverageopponentelsewhere;ithasnothingtodowithrake-avoidance.Ithinkpeopleoftenthinkofsatellitesthewrongway.Theythink,"IwanttoplayinthisbigGPP,butIcan'tresponsiblypaymywayintoitgivenmycurrentbankroll,soI'lltrytowinasatelliteintoitinstead.ThatwayI'mnotriskingverymuch."That'sbadbankrollmanagement.Ifyoucan'taffordtobuyyourwayintothebigGPPbeforewinningasatellite,thenyoushouldn'tbeplayinginthebigGPPafterwinningasatellite,either.Imean,yeah,you'venowgotatickettoit—butthevalueofthatticketwouldbebetterspentinsmallercontests,notthebigGPPthat,byhypothesis,isaboveyourbankroll.Ifa$10GPPistoorichforyourcurrentbankroll,insteadofspending$2onasatelliteintoa$10GPP,youshouldspendthat$2onaquintuple-upforcash.Thenifyouwin,spendthe$10ongamesthatareproperlywithinyourbankroll.Therightwaytothinkaboutasatellite,inmyopinion,is:"IwanttoplayinthisbigGPP.It'swithinmybankrolltojustbuymywayintoit.ButIthinkIcanbeattherakeinasatellite,soit'sactuallylesscostlyforme,onaverage,toplaymywayinviaasatellite.IfIspent$10toentertheGPP,I'dhaveexactlyoneentry.ButifIspend$10onfive$2satellites,I'llendupwithsomethinglike1.1entries,onaverage."—MaurileTremblay

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2.5.GameSelection

2.5.1.Choosinggames

ByJohnMamulaGameselection—playinginprofitablegamesratherthanunprofitableones—isoneofthemostimportantconceptswhenplayingdailyfantasysports.Eventhebestplayerswillgobrokeiftheydonothaveaplan.MostprofessionalDFSplayersprefertocompeteagainstinexperiencedcompetitionbecausetheyaremoreapttomakelineupmistakes.ForFanDuelhead-to-headcontests,werecommendnotcreatinganycontestsinthelobbyuntilyouhaveatleast1,000gamesplayed.Ifyouareanewplayerandyoucreatecontests,yourgameswilllikelygetscoopedupbymuchtoughercompetitionlookingtogainacompetitiveadvantage.Youmaywanttowaituntillateintheweek(SaturdaynightandSundaymorning)toselectmanyofyourhead-to-headopponents.Bywaitinguntilafewhoursbeforelineuplock,youwilloftenfindopponentswhohavejustregisterednewaccountsovertheweekend.ForFanDuel’scash-gamecontests,werecommendfocusingonthelargest50/50sandDoubleUpsavailable.Theoverallskilllevelincreasesatthe$25buy-inamountandabove.Ifyouhave$50allocatedforcashgamesinagivenweek,youshouldnotlooktoenterjustone$50contestortwo$25contests.Itwouldbebettertoentermultiplelarge-fieldDoubleUpsand50/50swithentryfees$5andbelow.

IhavehadmygreatestsuccessatFanDuelinDoubleUps(conteststhathave300+entries)and100-man50/50s.FanDueltakesalargercommission(12%)intheDoubleUps,butIfeelat300+entriestheedgeistoogoodtopassup.The$1,$2,and$550/50scanallbeplayedwith100entries(andonlyoneentryperperson).Thisensuresyouwon’tbestackedagainstatonofprosandisyourbestbettoincreaseyourbankrollconsistently.—DavidDodds

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2.5.2.Choosingopponents

ByChrisFeeryandJamesBrimacombeLastyear,toomanynewplayersdidn’tknowhowtoidentifyexperiencedplayersinFanDuel’shead-to-headlobby.Youusedtoclickonplayers’namestoseewincountspersportontheirprofilepages.Buttoimprovediscoverability,FanDuelreplacedthatfeaturewithanewthree-leveldesignationsystemcalledHighlyExperiencedPlayer(HEP)badges.Newplayershavenobadge,andDFSveteransarenowclearlyidentifiedwithoneofthefollowingtwoshieldsnexttotheirname:

Thesedesignationsappearinallcontesttypes,makingiteasyseehowmanyexperiencedplayersareinacontestataquickglance.Reactionstothechangeshavebeenmixed.Whilechangeswereneededtobenefittheoverallecosystem,thesetwodesignationsleaveroomforalotofinterpretation.AvastmajorityofplayersonFanDuelfitintooneofthesetwocategoriesandhaveashieldnexttotheirname,whichmakesinexperienceduserswithoutabadgestickoutlikeasorethumb.Additionally,manyweakplayershavebadges.Theshieldslumpplayersofvaryingskilllevelsintothesamecategories,andvolumeisthelargestdeterminingfactoronthelevelattained.Afteryouplay1,001contests,you’relabeledas“highlyexperienced”regardlessofwinrate.Inthenewenvironment,perhapsagoodruleofthumbforselectinghead-to-headopponentsistolookathowmanygamestheuserpostedinthelobby.Directlynexttotheirname,lookforamultipliersignfollowedbyanumber(e.g.x18,x4,etc.),whichtellsyouhowmanygamesthatuserhasavailableatthatbuy-inlevel.Ifyouaretryingtodecidebetweentwoplayerswiththesameexperiencedesignation,takeontheplayerwithfewergamesposted.Auserwithx20nexttotheirnamewouldappeartobemoreconfidentintheirabilitiesthanauserwithx5.Thatconfidencemaybemisplaced,butgenerallythemoreskininthegame,themoretimetheuserwillspendonresearch.Itisnotaperfectgaugeofexperience,butFanDuelofferslittleelsesinceremovingplayerprofilepages.

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AnothertoolforfindingmoreinformationaboutyouropponentsissearchingthroughtherankingsatRotoGrinders.comtoseeiftheyhaveaccountsthere.IftheyhaveaRotoGrindersaccount,youcanclicktheirusernamestoseewheretheyrankintheRotoGrinderscommunityandhowgoodtheyhavebeenthroughouttheyearateachindividualDFSsport.

Notabletoughopponentslurkonhead-to-headDFSboardseveryhourofeveryday.Creatingyourowncontestopensyouuptothepossibilityofoneofthecirclingsharkstakingyourgame.However,playingabroadspectrumofcontests(bothhead-to-headandotherwise)diversifiesyouropponents.Includingevensmaller-size(20-50players)cashgames,like50/50sandDoubleUps(ortheHead-to-HeadMatrixstyleonFanDuel),isanotherwaytoroundouttheweeklyportfoliowithoutbeingexposedtosingularsharksgobblingupanumberofhead-to-headcontests.—ChadParsons

Head-to-headisasucker’sbetforallbutthebestplayersintheworld.Ihaveawinrateoneverylineiteminmycashspreadsheet,butIfinishedtheyearwithanegativeROIat$25andaboveinhead-to-headcontests.Atlevels$25andabove,youarecompetingagainstthebestofthebest.PersonallyIdon’tthinkit’sworthit.Ifyoudon’thaveaHighlyExperiencedPlayer(HEP)badge,theprosaregoingtoeatupyouraction.Heads-upat$5andbelow,though,doesnothavealotofproplayerssinceFanDuellimitsthenumberoflow-pricedcontestsplayerscanenter.—DavidDodds

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3.LineupConstruction

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3.1.UnderstandingExpectationandVariance

ByMaurileTremblayWhenweprojectKeenanAllentoscore9.5pointsinFanDuel’sscoringsystem,whatdoesitmean?Itdoesn’tmeanthatweexpecthimtoscoreprecisely9.5points.That’spossible,butit’sveryunlikely.Evenif9.5ismorelikelythananyotherspecificnumber,thatexactoutcomeoccupiesanexceedinglysmallsliceofprobabilityspace.WhatitmeansintheoryisthatifyoutakeeachfantasypointtotalAllencouldconceivablyget,multiplieditbytherespectiveprobabilityofgettingthatscore,andaddallofthoseproductsup,you’dgetasumof9.5.(Usingthesameprocedure,we’dprojecttherollofasix-sideddietoproduceavalueof3.5,because1*1/6+2*1/6+…+6*1/6=3.5.Eventhoughthedielacksasidewith3.5onit,3.5isagoodprojectioninthesensethatitwouldbethefairover/underatevenodds.)Isay“intheory”becausenobodyactuallydoesprojectionsthatway.Ifyouconsultthesectiononprojections,youwon’tseeanyoneestimatingtheprobabilitythatKeenanAllenwillscore0.0points,andthendoingthesamefor0.1points,0.2points,andsoonallthewayupto60+pointsbeforedoingsomemultiplicationandadditiontogetaprojectionof9.5points.Rather,9.5pointsrepresentsadecentestimateofhispointsifthegamegoesthewayweexpect—ifAllencatchesanexpectednumberofpassesforanexpectednumberofyardsandtouchdowns,basedonallthefactorsoutlinedinSection4.5onprojections.Butwecanreverseengineerthat9.5-pointprojectiontotellussomethingabouttheimplieddistributioncurvecomprisingallthoseotherpossibilities.Ifyouknowwhatanormaldistributionis—sometimescalleda“bellcurve”—thedistributionofprobabilitiesimpliedbyaplayer’sprojectionwillshareanumberoffactorswiththat.(Aplayer’sdistributionofpointprobabilitiesisnotactuallyanormalcurve.Anormalcurveisbilaterallysymmetrical,butaplayer’sfantasy-pointdistributionwillbeabitskewedbecauseitextendsfurthertotherightthantotheleft,whereitreachesafairlyhardwallatzero.Ifyouwanttonerdout,aplayer’sfantasy-pointprobabilitydistributionismorelikeagammadistributionthananormaldistribution.)Foronething,aplayer’sfantasy-pointprobabilitydistributionwillgenerallybeunimodal,whichisafancywayofsayingthatitgenerallyhasjustonepeak.Andthatpeakwillgenerallyberoughlyequaltotheprojectionitself.SothatmeansthatwhileitisunlikelythatKeenanAllenwillscoreexactly9.5points,heismorelikelytoscore9.5pointsthan10or11or12points,orthan8or7or6points.Thefurtherawaytheprojectiongetsfrom9.5,thelesslikelythatparticularpointtotalwillbetooccur.

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Differentplayers,however,willhavedifferentlyshapeddistributionseveniftheyhavethesameprojectedpointtotal.Inagivenweek,KeenanAllenandAnquanBoldinmaybothbeprojectedtoscore9.5points.ButAnquanBoldin’sdistributioncurvemightberelativelytallandskinnywhileKeenanAllen’sisrelativelyshortandfat.Whatthatwouldmeanisthatwhilebothplayersshouldscorearound9.5pointsonaverage,Boldinislikelytoscorebetween7and12points,whileAllenislikelytoscorebetween4and15points.Whilebothplayers’projectedpointtotalshavethesameexpectation,Allen’sprojectionhasagreatervariance.Justasanyindividualplayer’sprojectedpointtotalwillhaveanexpectationandvariance,sowillanygroupofplayers.Infact,thegroup’sprojectedtotalwilljustbethesumoftheindividuals’totals.Aslongasnoneoftheplayersareplayinginthesamegames,thesameistrueforvariance.Youfindthegroup’svariancebysummingthevarianceoftheindividuals.Keepinmindthatwhenmultipleplayersfromthesamegroupareplayinginthesamegame,thevarianceofthegroupcannotbereachedthroughasimplesum.Thegroup’svariancecanbegreaterthanorlessthanthesumoftheindividualplayers’variance,dependingonhowtheperformancesoftheindividualsarecorrelatedwitheachother.Forexample,aquarterback’sperformanceandhisprimaryreceiver’sperformancearepositivelycorrelatedwitheachother—meaningthatwhenonedoeswell,theotherwillusuallydowell;andwhenonedoespoorly,theotherwillusuallydopoorly.Inthissituation,thevarianceofthetwoplayersasagroupisgreaterthanthesumoftheirindividualvariance.Bythesametoken,aquarterback’sperformanceisnegativelycorrelatedwiththatofthedefenseopposinghim.Toputitanotherway,whenonedoeswell,it’sbadnewsfortheother.Whenconsideringaquarterbackandthedefenseopposinghimasagroup,thegroup’svariancewillbelessthanthesumofthevarianceofthecomponentplayers.Here’ssomethingthat’strueofvarianceacrossalloflife’suncertainactivities:fortheunderdog,varianceisafriend.It’stheonlythinggivingtheunderdogachancetowin.Forthefavorite,varianceistheenemy.It’swhatgiveshisopponentsachancetobeathim.HowcanweusethatbitofwisdominourDFSexploits?Considerthedifferencebetweencashgamesandtournaments.

ProjectedPointsDistributionExample

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Inacashgame,let’ssaywethinkwe’llhavetoscore110fantasypointsinordertofinishinthemoney,andlet’ssaythatweconstructalineupthatisexpectedtoscore116points.Thatmakesusthefavorite!Ifourexpectationsarecalculatedcorrectly,we’llwinmorethanhalfthetimenomatterwhat.Andinfact,ifitweren’tforvariance,we’dwineverytime.Withzerovarianceandacorrectlycalculatedexpectationof116points,we’dscore116pointswith100%certainty—nevermore,neverless—andautomaticallybeatourgoalof110.Zerovarianceisimpossibleinfantasyfootball(unlessyoustartonlyplayerswhoareinactive,whichwedon’trecommend),butaslongasyourexpectationisabovetheprojectedcutofftofinishinthemoney,lessvarianceisbetterthanmorevariance.Intournaments,ontheotherhand,yourexpectationwillnearlyalwaysbeoutofthemoney.Let’ssaywethinkwe’llhavetoscore140pointstocashinaparticulartournament,forexample,butourbestlineupisexpectedtoscoreonly116points.Withzerovarianceinthiscase,we’dbetoast.Theonlyreasonwehaveachancetofinishinthemoneyisbecauseofvariance—becauseofthefactthatsometimeswe’llscorewellabove116points,andsometimeswe’llscorewellbelow116points.It’sthe“above”partthatwecareabouthere.Evenifourteamscoresonly116pointsonaverage,withahighenoughvariance,wemayscoremorethan140pointsasoftenas25%ofthetime.Thatwillmakeusmoneyifonly20%ofthefieldgetspaid.Soweseethat,incashgames,wewantahighexpectationwithalowvariance;andintournaments,wewantahighexpectationwithahighvariance.Thatmeansthatinacashgame,wegenerallywanttofillourrosterwithlow-varianceplayers,whileintournaments,we'rehappytoincludemorehigh-varianceplayers.Howcanyoudistinguishbetweenlow-varianceplayersandhigh-varianceplayers?Thereisn’tamagicstatisticthatgivesitaway.Thesimplestruleofthumb,ifyouareagenerallywellinformedNFLfan,istoaskyourselfhowwellyouthinkyoucanpredictaplayer’sperformanceintheupcominggame.Ifyouthinkyou’reprettysureyoucanpindownhislikelyproductionintoafairlynarrowrange,he’salow-varianceplayer.Ifyouhaveonlyawildguessratherthanawell-groundedestimate,he’sahigh-varianceplayer.Inmoreconcreteterms,high-varianceplayersarelikelytofitintooneofthefollowingcategories:(1)Hisroleintheoffenseisuncertainduetoateammate’sinjury.AnexamplewouldbeCincinnati’sGiovaniBernardifJeremyHillisbangedupandmaynotplayhisusualrole.(Incidentally,Hillhimselfwouldbehigh-varianceinthatsituationaswell,butsinceFanDuelgenerallydoesnotsignificantlydiscountaplayer’ssalaryifheisbangedupbutexpectedtoplay,injuredplayersgenerallydon’tprovidegreatvalue,andshouldusuallybeavoidedeveniftheyofferhighvariance.)

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(2)Hisroleintheoffensevariessignificantlybasedongamescript.MaybetheGiants’ShaneVereenwillgetalotoftouchesifhisteamgetsbehindearly,butfewtouchesifhisteamisprotectingalead.TheprospectoftheGiantsgettingbehindearlymaybeaworthwhilegamble.(3)Heisagoal-linespecialistwhoisn’tabigpartoftheoffensebetweenthetwenties.Thisfitstheboom-or-bustparadigmbecausetheplayercouldscoremultipletouchdowns,butifhefailstofindtheendzonehe’llbenearlyworthless.(4)Heisacomplimentaryplayerinanoffensethatisexpectedtoscorealotofpoints.Ifagamebecomesashootout,evenateam’sNo.3widereceivercouldhaveabigday.Lookforgameswithhighover/unders.

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3.2.CashGames

ByJohnLeeFailingtoappreciatethedifferencesbetweenacash-gamerosterandatournamentrostercanbeanexpensivelessonforthebeginner.Tobeclear,itisfollytoconstructDFSlineupsforcashgamesinthesamemannerastournamentlineups.Tohelpyoucircumventthatlengthy(andcostly)learningcurve,thenextfewparagraphswilldescribethefactorsandstrategiesthatshouldguideaplayer’sthinkingprocesswhenbuildingeachtypeoflineup.ThereisanarttoconstructingDFSlineups.Indailyfantasycircles,theideaofvalueisperhapsthemostfrequentlydiscussedtopic.Abeginnerwillputtogetherarosterthathethinkswillscorealotofpoints;aveteranknowsapproximatelyhowmanypointsheneedstowinandusesvalueasameanstodetermineexactlywhomtoselectforhislineup.Butwhatexactlyisvalueandwhyisitimportant?Tounderscoretheimportanceofvalue,let’sfirstdiscussitspresenceinoureverydaylives.Withourincomes,weseekoutvalueinthematerialthingsandservicesthatwepurchase.Iftherearetwogasstationsnexttooneanother,doyoucomparepricesandgiveyourbusinesstothecheaperofthetwo?Whenconsideringcableoptions,doyoupricecompareandtrytonegotiateabetterdealbetweencompetitors?Whenpurchasingacar,doyoutrytohaggletheaskingpricetoalowerlevelbeforeagreeingtoasale?Thecommondenominatorinallofthesesituationsisthatyou,thebuyer,areattemptingtomaximizethevalueofyourdollar…muchlikeaninvestortriestodoonWallStreetbybuyinglowandsellinghigh.Thevaluethatoneachievesintheseexamplesisknownasreturnoninvestment,orROI.TheROIindailyfantasyismeasuredinpointsperdollarandistheprimarybasisfordecision-makingduringrosterconstruction.Theterm“value”isthereforeameasureusedtodescribethenumberofexpectedpointsperdollarthataplayercanpotentiallyreturninanygivenweek.Therearetwocomponentstovalue:first,site-specificsalary,andsecond,projectedpointsinthesite-specificscoringsystem.Thefirstcomponentofthatformula(salary)willbecomeavailableonFanDuelonSundayevening.Derivingthesecondcomponent(projectedpoints)willbediscussedindetailinSection4.Ifyouarenotinclinedtogenerateyourownprojections,FootballguysprovidesallsubscribersdetailedprojectionsbyWednesdayofeveryweekduringtheseason,whichdramaticallylessenstheworkloadforanotherwisebusyplayer.

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Withthesetwopiecesofinformation,onesimplyhastodividetheplayer’sprojectedpointsbyhissalarytodeterminethatplayer’spointsperdollar.ManysuccessfulplayersbuildanExcelspreadsheettosortallplayersbytheirvalueseachweek.Oncevalueisdeterminedonapoint-per-dollarbasis,itbecomesfairlysimpletosortthiscolumnfromlowesttohighest.Viewingthislist,eventhemostinexperiencedDFSplayerscanidentifythebestvaluesfortheupcomingweek.IfyouhaveneveropenedanExcelspreadsheet,if

yourpersonalandprofessionallifecannotpermitsuchactivities,orifyoujustcannotbebotheredtospendthetimetoputtogethersuchatool...theInteractiveValueChartsonFootballguys.comaccomplishthisverytaskbyTuesdayofeveryweek,therebyeliminatingtheneedtoperformthisweeklyactivityonyourown!Withvaluedeterminedonapoint-per-dollarbasis,itisnowpossibletobeginworkingbackwardstoconstructasolidcash-gameroster.AtFanDuel,youshouldaimfor120pointstowinyourcashgames.AretrospectiveanalysisofFanDuelcashgamesoverthepastseveralyearshasdemonstratedthatascoreof120orabovewillwincashgamesapproximately90%ofthetime.Witha$60KsalarycaponFanDuel,itbecomesasimplemathexercisetorecognizethatawinningDFSplayermustachieve2pointsforevery$1,000spentonplayersalary.Thus,whenselectingpotentialplayersforacash-gameroster,theprocessshouldincludedividingthatplayer’ssalaryby1,000andsubsequentlymultiplyingby2todeterminethenumberoffantasypointsheneedstoscoretoreachvalue.Forexample,ifDrewBrees’salaryis$9,800,hewouldneedtoscore19.6fantasypointsinordertojustifyhissalaryforcashgames.$9,800/1,000=9.8x2=19.6Nowthatthescoringgoalhasbeenset,strategicplayerselectionbecomesthenextobjective.Therearetwomainconsiderationsforoptimalcash-gameplayerselection:(1)ahistoryoflowvariance,and(2)ahighfloor.Ahistoryoflowvariancecanbemoresuccinctlydefinedasconsistency.Forcashgames,werequireaconsistent,reliableperformancefromweektoweek.Startingaplayerwhoisconsistentwillensurethatyourrosterwillnotsufferfromaone-catch,six-yardperformancefromyourwidereceiveroranine-carry,18-yardperformancefromyourrunningback.Cashgamesareall-or-nothingpropositionswithtightlyclusteredscoresinthemiddleofthefinalstandings.Sufferingapoorgameatanypositionisoftenthedifferencebetweenwinningandlosing.Itisthereforeimperativetorosterplayerswhoareheavilyinvolvedintheiroffensiveschemestoensureconsistencyofscoring.Logically,forwidereceiversandtightends,attentionshouldbegiventohighlytargetedreceivers(forexample,AntonioBrownin2015).Forrunningbacks,considerplayerswhoroutinelytouchtheball20ormoretimesoutofthebackfield(bonus

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pointsforpass-catchingbackslikeDevontaFreeman).Forquarterbacks,usethoseguyswhowillthrowtheballoften,regardlessofthegameplan(forexample,DrewBreesandPhilipRiversin2015).Thesecondcomponentofselectingsolidcash-gameplayersistochoosethoseindividualswithahighfloor.Aplayer’sfloorisdefinedastheminimumnumberoffantasypointsrealisticallyprojectedtobescoredintheupcominggame,barringunforeseenevents(namelyaninjury).Notsurprisingly,thisparameteriscloselyrelatedtothefirstrule,whichstatedthatacash-gameplayershouldexhibitlowvariancefromweektoweek.Aplayerwhoisheavilyinvolvedinhisteam’soffenseshouldscorefantasypointsthroughsheervolumeofopportunity.Whentouchdownsaresoheavilyweightedinthescoringsystem,yetalsounpredictable,itisessentialtorosterplayerswhosereceptionsandyardagecanbelooselypredictedbasedontheirusageandimportancetotheirteam’soveralloffensivescheme.Asageneralrule,itisadvisabletoassumethataplayerwillnotscoreatouchdown.Thiswillyieldanabsolutebasementnumberforthatplayer’sfloorthatweek.Oncethefloorhasbeendeterminedforeachplayeratagivenposition,particularlyinthecontextofvalue,thenumberofviableoptionsforcashgamesbecomesquitelimited.Beforemovingontootherconsiderationsforcashgames,itisimportanttostressthatyoumustexercisesimplecommonsensewhenemployingtheaforementionedstrategies.Forexample,ifaWR2hasbeenheavilytargetedforseveralconsecutivegameswhiletheWR1forthatsameteamhasbeeninjured,donotexpectthattrendtocontinuewhentheWR1returnsfrominjury.Similarly,ifatop-tierquarterbackgoesdowntoinjuryandisreplacedbyarookiequarterback,everybodyintheoffenseshouldbesignificantlydowngradedtoreflectthelossofleadership,experience,andoverallabilityonthefield.Ontheoppositeendofthespectrum,donotbeafraidtorosteraninexpensivebackupplayeratagivenpositioniftheprimaryplayeratthatpositionisannouncedasinactive;thecaveatisthatyoumusthaveconfidencethatthereplacementplayerwillstillseesignificantactioninthenewrole.TherearemanypotentialmistakesthatnoviceDFSplayerscanmake,butconsultingwithareliablesetofprojectionscanoftenhelpavoidpoordecisions.OneoftheintriguingaspectsofplayingNFLDFSisthattherearealwaysasignificantnumberofinjuriesfromweektoweekthataffectvalueateachposition.Forthisreason,itisessentialthataplayerfirstcapitalizesonmispricedplayersduetoinjuryorsite-specificpricingmistakes(ithappensfromtimetotime).Afterthoseextremevalueplayersfindtheirwayontoyourroster,youshouldbelookingtoincorporatefurthervaluewithconsistentplayerswhoprojecttohavehighfloorsforthatweekend.

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Allthingsbeingequal,thepositionthatconsistentlydemonstratestheleastamountofvarianceisthequarterbackposition.Why?Becausetheyaretheonlyplayerwhothrowstheballinthepassinggame,whereasrunningbackstendtosharerushingdutieswithotherrunningbacksandreceiversaresubjecttosimilarrestrictions(matchups,sharingtargets,etc.).Thus,itoftenmakesalotofsensetospendasubstantialamountofyoursalary(afterfirstearmarkingextremevalueasdescribedabove)ontheQBpositionbecauseitisthepositionwheretheexpectedROIismostlikelytooccuronaconsistentbasis.Thatsaid,itiscompletelyinadvisabletospendsomuchattheQBpositionthatyouleavetoolittlesalarytostrategicallyfilltheremainingrosterslots;oneshouldthereforeexercisecautiontoensurethattheselectionofanysingleplayerisnottooexpensivesuchthatitprohibitsrosteringotherlikelyproductiveplayers.OfalltherequiredpositionsforDFSfootball,thekickeranddefensepositionsremaintheleastpredictablefromweektoweek.InSection4.3,wedescribearetrospective-basedsystemtohelpreasonablyprojectfantasyoutputatthosepositions,butthoseprojectionsarestilllimitedbythehighlyvariantscoringnatureofthoserosterpositions.Inotherwords,itisadvisabletoconstructyourcash-gamerosterswithskillpositionsfirstandaddthekickeranddefenseasancillarycomponentstoyourprimaryrosterthereafter.Anoften-overlookedstrategicparameterofcash-gamerosterconstructionistheavoidanceofnegativelycorrelatedplayers.Anegativelycorrelatedplayerisonewhoseon-fieldproductionreducesthefantasyoutputofanotherplayeronthesameteam.Forexample,ifAaronRodgershasanexcellentdaythrowingtheballforGreenBay,itishighlyunlikelythattheNFLdefenseheisfacingwillalsohaveastrongperformance.Incashgames,whereconsistencyandguaranteedpoints(floor)arevalued,itrarelyislogicaltorosteraQBandateamdefensefromopposingteamsbecausethosepositionsareoftennegativelycorrelated.Positivelycorrelatedplays(e.g.,aQB-WRcombination)aregenerallyusedintournamentrosters(seethefollowingsection),butthereisapositivecorrelationplayortwothatcanbeemployedforcashgames,thefirstofwhichispairingarunningbackandteamdefense.ItiscommonpracticeintheNFLforteamstobuildanearlyleadandleanontheirworkhorserunningbackinthesecondhalfto“runtheclock”soastoforcethetrailingteamintodesperationmodelateinthegame.Whenlosingteamsareforcedintobecomingone-dimensional,theyoftenmakemistakesthatleadtosacks,turnovers,anddefensivetouchdowns,allofwhichbenefitthefantasyprospectsoftheopposingdefense.Forthesereasons,ifyoufeelstronglyaboutarunningbackplayingforaheavyfavorite,stackingarunningbackandteamdefenseisasolidpositive-correlationplayforcashgamesandtournamentsalike.

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Anothercorrelatedplaythatcanbeemployedforcashgamesistorosterarunningbackandakickerfromthesameteam.ThisworksbestwhenVegaspredictsthepair’steamtoscorealotofpointsontheirwaytovictory.Initially,thisstrategymightappeartobeanegativelycorrelatedplay,butitmitigatesriskwithoutsacrificingmuchupside.Theduoislikelytobeplayingwiththelead,whichwillincreasetherunningback’scarries,especiallyintheredzone.Withaconservativegameplanlateinthegame,theteamisalsomorelikelytokickafieldgoal—somethingatrailingteammightforgotomakeupground.Iftherunningbackdoesn’tscore,thenyourkickergetspointsforthefieldgoal.Iftherunningbackdoesreachpaydirt,yourteamalsogetstotackonanextrapoint.Whenthegamescriptplaysoutasexpected,it’sawin-winscenarioforcashgames.

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3.3.Tournaments

ByJeffPasquino

3.3.1.Forgetcash-gamementality

ForDFSplayerswhoareusedtoplayingcashgames,wherethegoalistojustgetawinningscore,tournamentscanposeabigchallenge.Playershavetoforgetallabouttryingtoputtogetheralineupthathasvaluableandsafeplayerswhowilldefinitelyproducearespectablescoreinordertocash.Thekeydifferenceonemustrealizeisthat,inatournament,firstplacehasextremevalue.Thebiggestupsideacash-gameplayerhasisdoublinghisentryfee.Tournamentprizescanbehundredsoreventhousandsoftimestheentryfee.Sowhatchangesdoesacash-gameplayerhavetomake?First,donotjustputacash-gamelineupinatournament.Whilethereisachancethatthelineupcouldearnaprizeinanygiventournament,aproperlyconstructedcash-gamelineupisparticularlyunlikelytotakefirstplace.Acash-gamelineup,filledwithsteady,high-floorplayers,willbeupagainsttournamentlineupswithmoreupside.Winningtournamentlineupsdonotplayitsafe:theyembracevolatilelineups,knowingthatiftherightcombinationhits,thepayoffishuge.Insummary,thephilosophyofacashgameistowinoneoftheprizes,astheyareallthesamevalue.Thefirst-placewinneristhesameasthelastteamtowinaprize,sothereisnoincentivetowelcomerisk.Safe,solidlineupswinmoreoftenthannot,andthatisthelineupstyleofchoiceinacashgame.Tournamentphilosophyiscompletelydifferent,asthegoalistofinishashighintheconteststandingsaspossibletoearnthosebigprizesgivenouttothebestscores.Takingonriskhereisnotonlysuggestedbutrequired.Anappetiteforrisk,however,shouldnotbeconfusedwithrecklessabandon.SelectingalineupconstructedwithsomeplayerswhocanhititbiginagivenweekcanresultinaTop1%finishandabigprize.Withouttakingonsomelevelofrisk,achievingafirst-placescoreisalmostimpossible.

3.3.2.Value,upside,andtherightcombinationofboth

Therearemanywaystobuildalineupforagivencontest.BystudyingthemostsuccessfulstrategiesthathaveresultedintopfinishesinGPPtournaments,severalthemescanbeextracted.Combiningtherightgroupsofplayerswhomeetcertaincriteriaisnotnecessarilyaguaranteeforsuccess,butbyconsideringhowtobuildalineupforatournament,wecanincreaseourchancesofwinningitbigandtakinghomeatopprize.

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Valueplaysdomatter,butupsidemattersmore

Whenfindingtherightplayerstoputinyourtournamentlineup,manywilltargetvalueplaysfirst.That’sagoodstartingpoint,asthesecanbethefoundationofasolidscorethatleadstoaTop1%finish.Mostweeks,ifvalueplayscanbefoundforcashgames,butakeyquestionhastobeaskedfirst—whatdoesitmeantobeavalueplayforatournamentcontest?Backinthediscussionofcashgames,wedefinedavalueplayeras“2xplayer,”whichmeansthattheplayerisexpectedtoscoreatleasttwiceasmanyfantasypointsashissalarydividedby$1,000.Thatmeansa$7,000widereceiverhastobeexpectedtoscore14ormorefantasypointstoreachvalueforacashgame.Fortournaments,thebarneedstoberaised.AsonelearnsbystudyingsuccessfultournamentlineupsatFanDuel,lineupscoresintherangeof180totalpointsarerequiredforaTop10finish,sothattranslatestoatournamentvalueplayertobea“3xplayer”orbetter.Thatseverelyreducesthepopulationofvalueplayerseachweek.

Thisguidelinecanhelpaplayernarrowthelistofplayerswhocanbeconsideredfortheirweeklylineup.Tofindplayerswhocanreachtournamentvalue,aplayershouldcalculatewhatitwouldtakeforaplayertoreachafantasyscoreinaccordancetotheneededmultiplierofhissalary.Goingbacktoourearlierexampleofa$7,000widereceiver,heneedstogetto21pointstogetfulltournamentvalue.Onewaytoseewhatthatwouldtakeistostartwithabaselineof100yardsandatouchdownandseewhatthatwouldworkouttobeinpoints.Let’sassumethisplayerneedssixcatchestogetto100yardsandfindtheendzone.

WithFanDuel’shalf-point-per-receptionscoring,a6-100-1statlineyieldsthreepointsforthesixcatches,10pointsfor100yards,andsixmoreforthescore—atotalof19points.Thatisnearlyvaluerightthere,sotweakingthenumbersalittleto7-115-1gives21points.Sothequestionaplayerneedstoaskaboutagiven$7,000widereceiveristhis:howeasilycanheattainastatisticalperformanceof7-115-1thisweek?Iftheansweristhathecandoitprettyeasilyorthatthereisastronglikelihoodofgetting7-10catches,100-120yardsandatouchdown,thenhepassesthetestandcanbeontheshortlistofoptionsforyourtournamentlineups.

Upside

Anotherwaytofindplayerscapableofmakingpointsfortheweekistoconsiderupsideplays.Theseareplayerswhotypicallydonotcostasmuchasnormalweeklystartingfantasyoptions,butgiventheirlowersalariestheycanreachvaluewiththeirmatchupforthecomingweek.Atypicalexampleisabackuprunningbackwhoisexpectedtoseefarmoreactionthanexpectedduetoaninjurytothenormalstarter.A$5,000runningbackwhoshouldget20-25touchesisnotnormal,butwhenitdoeshappen(andithappensfarmoreoftenthanmostrealize)thenheimmediatelygetsonthatshortlistforDFStournamentconsideration.

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Notethatthissameplayerislikelytobeoncash-gamelistsaswell,andforgoodreason.Anyplayerwithahighprobabilityofgettingtotournamentvalueis,bydefinition,acash-gameoption.Thisgoesbacktothementalitydiscussionearlierinthissectionwhereyouhavetorememberwhatyourgoalisforeachandeverylineupyoucreate.Someplayerswillpassthecriteriaforbothcashandtournamentrosters,butthatdoesnotmeanthatallofthecashplayerswillbeworthatournamentlineupspot.TrueupsideplaysoftencomefromopportunitiesthatariseduringanNFLweek.Injuries,suspensions,benchings,anddepthchartchangescanturnaminimallypricedplayeratthebottomoftheDFSsalarylistintoaplayerwithupsidevalue.Itisnothardtoimagineanewstartingplayerwithabargainbasementsalarythathasstartersnapsandproductiontohaveamuchhigherlikelihoodtoreachtournamentvaluebasedonthatnewstatus.Theseplayershavetobeatthetopofaplayer’sweeklylistforlineupconsideration.

VarianceandVolatility

Becausetouchdownsarerelativelyrare,thereissubstantial,inherentvarianceinDFSfootballproduction.Thisvolatilityinproductionisoftenconsideredanegativewhenitcomestocashgames,asacash-gameplayerwantstohaveasafeandproductiveroster.Unlikecashgames,tournamentsforceaplayertoconsidervarianceapositivefactorandtoembracethevolatilityinscoring(withinreason).Rosteringawidereceiverthatonlyscoresonceinawhileisariskyplayinacashgame,butatournamentplayerisaneternaloptimist,focusingonhisteam’spotentialwhenthestarsalignandhisplayersdohititbig.

Uniqueness

Itgoeswithoutsayingthatifyoufinishatthetopofatournament,youdefinitelydonotwanttosplitthattopprizewithanyoneelse—butthatisnotthemainreasonyouwanttohaveauniquelineup.IfaDFSrosterhasaplayerwhoisnotownedbymanyotherteamsandthatplayerhasahugegame,thatteamisthatmuchfurtheraheadofthecompetition.Immediatelyafteratournamentbegins,FanDueldisplaystheownershippercentageofeachplayer—thepercentageofteamsinthattournamentthattheplayerison.Forexample,ina1,000-entrytournamentthathas100teamsusingtheSeattledefense,theSeahawks’10%ownershipwillbeshown.

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Onewaytothinkaboutuniquenessistoremembertheoldsaying,“Arisingtideliftsallboats.”Ifaplayerisoneveryone’sroster,hisperformancehelpsallteamsbythesameamount—whichistosaythatithelpsnoone.Ifjustafewteamslackthatplayer,thoseteamswillfindthemselvesaheadorbehindthegreatmorassofteamsthatdohavehim(dependingonhisperformance)andthatisagoodsituationforthosefewteams.Beingoneofthetopfewteamshalfthetimeandoneofthebottomfewteamshalfthetimeisbetterinatournamentthanbeingstuckinthemiddleallthetime.Uncommonlyownedplayersaretheoneswiththegreatestpotentialtopullyouawayfromthemiddleandseparateyoufromthecrowd.Thisiswhereasavvyplayercanimprovehischancesbyfindingplayerswhoarelikelytobeoffthebeatenpath.Arunningbackwhoissuddenlyactiveatthelastminute(orstartingduetoalast-minutescratch)couldincreaseyouruniqueness,justlikeowningaplayerwhoiscomingoffofaninjurythatmanywillwanttoavoid.Thekeyistofindplayerswhowillbeuncommonlyownedforreasonsotherthanthattheyarepoorvalues.Rosteringauniqueplayerwhoperformspoorlywilluniquelyhurtyourteam,soyou’relookingforplayerswithdecentvaluethatothersareoverlooking…notforplayerswithterriblevaluewhomothersarerationallyavoiding.DiscussionsaboutthevalueofuniquelineupscontinueinDFScircles,asitisnotclearwhetherauniquelineupistrulynecessarytowinthetopprizeinaGPPcontest.Thereisnoquestionthatwinnersofmajorconteststypicallyhaveatleastonehigh-performingplayerwhoisnotwidelyowned.Itisalsotruethatwinningrostersdonottypicallyhaveagreatnumberofsuchplayers—usuallythreeattheverymost.Evenintournaments,thereissuchathingastoomuchrisk.

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Stacks

TournamentlineupsthatfinishatornearthetopofGPPcontestsoftenhavewhatareconsidered“stacks,”whichareteammatepairingsofquarterbackandeitherawidereceiverortightend.Thetheorybehindthisgoesbacktoembracingupside,asabiggamebyareceiverortightendforagiventeamassuresagoodgamebythequarterback.Lineupsthathaveoneofthebestwidereceiverperformancesoftheweekwillgreatlyincreasethechancesofhavingaprize-winningroster,butthatlikelihoodsignificantlyincreasesifthelineupcontainsthatreceiver’squarterbackaswell.AnotherstackingconceptthatissometimesusedbysuccessfullineupsispairingsomecombinationofanNFLteam’srunningback,kicker,ordefense.Ateamwithabigleadandastrongdefensiveshowingwilllikelyruntheballinthesecondhalfofthegame,resultinginbiggernumbersfortheleadrusher.

Correlations:PositiveandNegative

Thereasonitmakessensetostackaquarterbackwithhiswidereceiver(orarunningbackwithhisdefense)isthattheirperformancesarepositivelycorrelatedwitheachother.Thismeansthattheperformanceofoneofthepairistiedcloselytotheother,andthatthedirectionoftheperformancesisthesame(agoodgamebyoneusuallymeansagoodgamebytheother).Players’performancescanalsobenegativelycorrelatedwitheachother:agoodgamebyoneusuallymeansabadgamebytheother.Forexample,takingtworunningbacksfromthesameNFLgame(usuallyopposingstartingrunningbacks)cangiveanegativecorrelation.Whileitisquitepossiblethatoneofthetwobackswillhaveabiggame,itisrarefortwobacksinthesamegametobothputupbignumbers.Intournaments,positivecorrelationsaresoughtafter,whilenegativecorrelationsaretobeavoided.

Correlations

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Oneofthebest(andeasiesttoavoid)examplesofnegativecorrelationisateamdefenseoppositeyourstartingquarterback.Ifthequarterbackhasabiggame—exactlywhatyouwant—thenthedefenseisnotgoingtohaveagoodperformance.Similarly,whenthedefensehasagreatgame,thequarterbackprobablywon’t.Ingeneral,youshouldavoidrosteringateamdefensethatfacesanyofyouroffensiveplayers.

WhichGamestoTarget;VegasIsYourFriend

Playerswhoscorealotofpointscangenerallybefoundinhigh-scoringgames,sothat’sagoodplacetolookforthem.Whichgameswillbehigh-scoring?Wecan’tknowforsure,butwecangetaprettygoodcluefromthesportsbooks.Bylookingatthebettinglinespublishedonanynumberofsites,youcanfindboththeexpectedpointtotal(i.e.,over/under)andthepointspreadforeveryNFLgameinthecomingweek.Bydoingsomesimplemath,youcancalculatetheexpectednumberofpointsateamisexpectedtoscoreforeachgame.Hereisanexample:Philadelphia(51)Dallas(-3)The51representsthetotalexpectedpointsfortheEagles-Cowboysclash.Dallasisfavoredbythreepointsasshownbythe“-3”nexttoDallas,sobysubtractingthatnumberfromthetotalwehave48points.DividethatevenlytotheEagles(24)andDallas(24)andaddingbackthethreepointsthatDallaswasgivenbyLasVegasandweseethattheexpectedpointsforthisgameisCowboys27,Eagles24.Nowthatisnotaguaranteebyanymeansoftheoutcomeofthatcontest,butitisaverygoodindicationofwhatLasVegasexpectstoseeasthemostlikelyoutcome.

Bydoingthemathforallofthecomingcontestsfortheweek,we’llseethatseveralteamsarelikelytobeatornear30pointsormore.Thosearetheteamsthatshouldbetargetedforoffensiveplayers.Takingplayersincontestswithtotalsnearthehigherend(usually50pointsormore)isalsoagoodidea.Buildingalineuparoundplayersinhigh-scoringgamesisaworthwhiletactic.

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3.4.TellaConsistentStory

ByMaurileTremblayTellingaconsistentstorymeansthatyourlineup'ssuccessshouldnotdependonmutuallycontradictoryoccurrences.Forexample,don'tpickahigh-pricedquarterbackandalsopickthehigh-pricedNFLdefenseheisgoingagainst.Foreachofthoseselectionstoreachvalue,they'llbothhavetohavegreatgames;butagreatgamebyaquarterbackandthedefensehefacesiscontradictory.Thequarterback'ssuccesscomesatthedefense'sexpenseandviceversa.Incashgames,thestoryyourrosterreliesonshouldbeconsistentbecauseitshouldgenerallybethesamestorythatistoldbytheVegasspreadsandover/unders.Intournaments,thestoryyourrosterreliesonmayvaryfromthestorytoldbytheVegasspreadsandover/unders,butitshouldvaryinaconsistentway.Consideratoygamewemightplaywithasix-sideddie.Youcanselectanyrealnumberyouwant,andyourscoreisdeterminedbyhowfaroffyouarefromtheresultofrollingthedie.Ifyoupick5andthedielandson2,forexample,youwerethreeoff,soyourscoreisminus-three.Inahead-to-headcontest,choosing3.5wouldbeaperfectlygoodstrategy,butpicking6wouldbeterrible.Ifyoupick3.5,you'llbeoffby1.5,onaverage,andyou'llneverbeoffbymorethan2.5.Ifyoupick6,you'llbeoffby2.5,onaverage,andyou'llsometimesbeoffby5.Someonewhopicks3.5willbeatsomeonewhopicks6two-thirdsofthetime.Nowconsideramid-sizedwinner-take-alltournamentinsteadofahead-to-headcontest.Picking6becomesadecentstrategywhilepicking3.5ishorrible.Towin,you'reprettymuchgoingtohavetonailtheexactresult.Thatmeans6willwinaboutone-sixthofthetimewhile3.5willwinnever.Youmayhavededucedthatthebeststrategyinthisgameistopicktheintegerbetweenoneandsix(inclusive)thatyourcompetitorsareleastlikelytopick.Ifyoucanfindanumberthatispickedbyfewerthanone-sixthofthefield,youwillhaveapositiveexpectation(ignoringanyrake).Let'stranslatewhatthatmeansforDFSgames.

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ThestorytoldbytheVegasspreadsandover/underscanbethoughtofasthemostlikelyscenario.Inacashgame,youwanttoplayitsafeandconstructarosterthatisconsistentwiththemostlikelyscenario.Inatournament,however,especiallythosewithtop-heavypayoutstructures,youwillnotwanttoplayitsafe.AlthoughtheVegaslinesmightrepresentthemostlikelyscenario,theactualresultsfromtheNFLgameswilllikelydepartfromtheVegaslinesinanumberofways.ThecontestantsthatfinishhighinDFStournamentswillbetheoneswhoselineupsdepartfromtheVegaslinesinthesamewaythattheactualNFLresultsdo.Tooversimplifythingsinwhatishopefullyaninstructiveway,considerthreescenarios:ScenarioA:ResultsfromNFLgamescloselymirrortheVegaslines(andmainstreamprojectionsconsistentwiththoselines).ScenarioB:ResultsfromNFLgamesmostlymirrortheVegaslines,exceptthePackersscorefarmorepointsagainsttheBearsthanexpected.ScenarioC:ResultsfromNFLgamesmostlymirrortheVegaslines,exceptthePackersscorefarfewerpointsagainsttheBearsthanexpected.Let'sgiveScenarioAaprobabilityof40%,andlet'sgiveScenariosBandCprobabilitiesof30%each.Ifyouropponents'lineupsaredistributedevenly,suchthatone-thirdofthemareconsistentwitheachscenario,itisapparentthatthebulkofyourlineupsshouldbuyintoScenarioA.Yourchanceoffinishinghighinthestandingsisproportionaltotheproductof(a)thereciprocalofthefractionofthefieldgoingwiththesamescenarioyouare,and(b)theprobabilitythatyourscenarioistherightone.(Thereciprocalofafractionjustreversesthenumeratoranddenominator,sothereciprocalof1/3is3/1,thereciprocalof2/5is5/2,etc.)Inthiscase,ScenarioA(3*40%=1.2)givesyouabetterexpectedresultthanScenarioB(3*30%=0.9)orScenarioC(3*30%=0.9).ButinDFScontests,evenintournaments,youropponents'lineupswillnotbeevenlydistributedacrossallscenarios:theywilltendtoclusteraroundscenariosmostconsistentwithmainstreamprojectionsthatarebasedontheVegaslines.Solet'ssaythatinsteadof33/33/33,youropponents'lineupsaredistributedasfollows:50%areconsistentwithScenarioA,30%areconsistentwithScenarioB,and20%areconsistentwithScenarioC.Inthiscase,yourbestbetistosubmitalineupconsistentwithScenarioC.ScenarioC(5*30%=1.5)ispreferabletoScenarioA(2*40%=0.8)orScenarioB(3.33*30%=1.0).GoingwithScenarioChereissimilar,inthetoy-gameexampleabovewiththedie,topickingthenumber6whenfewerthanone-sixthofthefieldisdoingso.Thegeneralruleisthatifyou

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thinkthereisanX%chancethataparticulardeparturefromtheVegaslinewillcometofruition,andyouthinkthatY%ofthelineupssubmittedbyyouropponentswillbeconsistentwiththatdeparture,itmakessensetosubmitalineupbasedonthatdepartureaslongasX>Y.(Pokerplayersmightfindananalogyheretotheconceptofpotodds.)Thekey,though,isthatanydepartureordeparturesfromtheVegaslinesthatoneofyourrostersisbasedonmustbeself-consistent.IfyouareadoptingScenarioCabove,thatdoesn'tmeanonlythatyoushouldbelesslikelytoincludeAaronRodgersinyourlineup.ItalsomeansthatyoushouldbelesslikelytoincludeJordyNelsoninyourlineup,andmorelikelytoincludetheBearsdefenseinyourlineup.Don'tsimplyaddtoorsubtractfromoneplayer'sprojectedpoints.Playersinthesamegameareinterrelated,andifyou'readdingtooneplayer'sprojectedpoints,youmustaddtoorsubtractfromotherplayers'projectedpointsinawaythatisconsistentwiththestoryyou'recreating.(Theconceptofstackingcanbederivedfromthiswayofthinking.)

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3.5.FitLineuptoContest,orContesttoLineup?

ByMaurileTremblayandMarkWimerWhenitcomestofantasyfootballofanysort,there’srarelyasingle,correctwayofdoingthings.SomeDFSlineupsarebettersuitedforcashgames,andothersshouldbeusedintournaments.Ultimately,therecanbeseveralmethodsforgeneratingthesamelineup.Consideraplayerwhoonlyenterscashgames.Hecouldmakealistof20solidlineupswithoutoptimizingthemforcashgames—he’sjusttryingtomaximizeexpectedpoints.Afterhehas20lineups,hecanselecttheonesthatarebettersuitedforcashgamesandenterthemintohiscontests.Thatstrategywillprobablyworkjustfine,butthatseemslikealotofunnecessarywork.Whynotoptimizethoselineupsforcashgamesinthefirstplace?HecouldavoidQB-WRstacksandchooseSteadyEddiesoverboom-or-bustplayersfromthestart.Whyconstructfivetimesasmanylineupsjusttothrow80%ofthemout?Ontheotherhand,considersomeonewhoisplanningtoenterbothcashgamesandtournaments.Noweitherstrategybecomessensible.Hecouldconstructalineupdesignedtomaximizeprojectedpointsanddecidelaterwhichtypeoftournamenttoenterbasedonthecharacteristicsofthelineup.Alternatively,hecouldconstructonelineupthatheknowsisdestinedforacashgameandthenbuildanotherlineupspecificallyforatournament.It’ssimplyamatterofpreference,andreadersareencouragedtotryitbothwaystoseewhichsuitsthembetter.

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3.6.OtherConsiderations

3.6.1.Thursdayvs.Sundaycontests

ByPhilAlexanderThursdaynightcontestsusethesamerulesandscoringsystemsasSunday-Mondaycontestsbutallowyoutobuildrosterswithplayersfromeverygameontheweeklyslate.Thoughtheyaddonlyonegameandafewplayerstoyourpreparation,thereareimportantreasonswhyThursdaycontestsrequireadifferentapproachfromSunday-Mondaycontests:ThursdaycontestsmeanThursdaynightrosterlocks.YourrostercannotbechangedoncetheThursdaynightgamekicksoff.BreakingdevelopmentsimpactplayervaluesbetweenThursdaynightandgametimeonSundayeveryweek,presentingyouwithanobviousdilemma:Shouldyouchanceusingaplayerifyou’reuncertainabouthisplayingstatus?Thursdayconteststestyourdiscipline.Oncefootballseasonisinfullswing,threedayswithoutanNFLgamecanfeellikeaneternity.BythetimeThursdayrollsaround,it’snaturaltobecravingalittleaction—andwhatbetterwaytoscratchtheitchthanwatchingyourfantasyplayersintheThursdaynightgame?Here’swhereyouhavetobecarefulwithThursdaytournaments.Ifyouallowtheurgetogetsomeskininthegametocloudyourjudgment,you’llmakepoorrosterdecisionsandsinkyourlineups.ThursdayNightFootballcanbeuglyfootball.Whetherit’sbecausetheschedulemakersjusthaveaknackforshowcasinglousyormismatchedteams,theteamsdon’thaveenoughtimetoprepare,ortheplayersdon’thavelongenoughtorecoverfromthepreviousgame,ThursdayNightFootballcanbedreadful.EnoughdataexiststosuggestThursdaygamesaredetrimentaltofantasyperformance,withthoseinvolvedinthepassinggameathighestrisk.Fortunately,thereareseveralstrategiesyoucanemploytoavoidthetrapsofThursdaycontests,capitalizeonthemistakesofothers,andconsistentlyturnaprofit.

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TheThursdayNightFade

Ifyoutakeonlyonelessonfromthissection,makeitthisone:Inlarge-fieldtournaments,itwillalmostalwaysbecorrecttoavoidplayersfromtheThursdaynightgame.NoviceandcasualDFSuserscannotresistwatchingtheirfantasyplayersonnationalTV.Theirthirstforaction(anddisregardforgoodprocess)willtypicallyinflatetheownershippercentagesofThursdayplayers,regardlessofwhetherornotthecircumstancesactuallywarrantit.Asyoureadintheearliersectionontournamentplay,there’svalueinowningatleastafewuniqueplayers.Forthisreasonalone,fadingtheThursdaynightgamewillgenerallybethecorrectplayintournaments.Perhapsmoreimportantly,recenttrendsshowfantasyscoringtobeworseonThursdaynight.Thisisparticularlytrueforpassingproduction.UnlesstheThursdaynightgameincludesatleastoneelitepassingoffense,itmakessensetofadetheseplayers.Since2012,whentheNFLexpandeditsThursdaynightpackagefrom8to13games,fantasyproductioninthepassinggameisdownabout4.5%onThursdaynightscomparedtoothergames.

APositiveNoteonThursdayRunningBacks

Ifyoucan’tresisttheurgetouseaplayerfromtheThursdaygameinyourlineup,choosearunningback.Overthelastfouryears,fantasyproductionintherunninggameisabout8%higherinThursdaygamesthaninSundaygames.RushingtouchdownshavebeenespeciallymorefrequentonThursdaynights.Acrossthefour-yearsample,therewere1.74rushingtouchdownspergamescoredonThursdayversus1.42pergameonSunday--a20%increaseinrushingtouchdownspergame.

AvoidQuestionablePlayers...MostoftheTime

SinceyoucannotmakeanychangestoyourlineupaftertheThursdaygamekicksoff,youareforcedintoanearlydecisiononplayerswhoseinjurystatusesarestillunknown.YoumustdecideonThursdaywhetheraninjuredplayerisworthriskinginyourlineup.You’realsoforcedtodecidewhethertotakeachanceontheplayerswhostandtobenefitmostiftheinjuredplayerisinactiveorineffective.It’sdifficultenoughtosetawinninglineupwhenyouhavealltheinformationyouneedreadilyavailable.Whenyou’reessentiallyflyingblindregardingaplayer’sSundayavailability,thecorrectplayistofadeboththeinjuredplayerandhisteammates,especiallyincashgames.Ifyouincludeaninjuredplayerinyourlineupandheendsupsittingout,yourrosterwillbedealtacripplingblow.

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Azeroinyourlineupallbutguaranteesyou’llhavenoshotatadeepruninaGPP,andmakesitverylikelyyou’llfallbelowthecashlineaswell.Likewise,iftheinjuredplayersuitsuponSundayandyourosteredhisbackup(orateammatewhowasinlineforabiggerrole),yourteam’sceilinghasbeenloweredappreciably.Thisisn’ttosaythattakingachanceonplayerswithinjuryconcernsorquestionableworkloadsinaThursdayGPPcan’tpayoffinabigway.MostDFSplayerswilltaketheconservativeapproachandavoidusingplayerswithunclearSundayoutlooks.Ifyou’reoneofthefewwhotakesabigswing,andtheSundaymorningnewsworksoutinyourfavor,you’llberewardedwithalesser-ownedplayerwithhugeupside.Whichstrategyyoudecidetouseshoulddependonyourrisktoleranceandpercentageofbankrolldevotedtothecontest.

GainingIntelforSundayTournaments

Whenyouenteralarge-fieldThursdaytournamentonFanDuel,you’regettingmoreforyourentryfeethanjustachancetowinashareoftheguaranteedprizepool.You’realsogaininganinvaluableresearchtooltohelpyoumakeeducatedguessesatplayerownershippercentagesinSundaytournaments.AftertheThursdaynightgamekicksoff,you’llbeabletoseetheownershippercentagesofallplayersonyourroster.WhileThursdayownershippercentageswillnotexactlymatchtheownershippercentagesofSundaycontests,theyprovideareliableguidetohowthecrowdvaluesparticularplayersinanygivenweek.AwinningGPPlineupusuallyincludesatleastoneortwolesser-ownedplayers,andyou’llnowhaveaneasiertimeidentifyingwhichplayersaretheonesflyingunderyouropponents’collectiveradar.You’llonlybeabletoseeownershippercentagesforplayersonyourownroster.Tocollectownershipdataforlotsofplayers,you’llneedtoentermultiplelineupsthatincludealltheplayersyou’recuriousabout.Ifthissoundstooexpensive,rememberthatFanDueloffersmulti-entrytournamentsthatbeginonThursdaynightforaslittleasadollar.Ifyouconstructyourlineupscarefully,there’sastrongchancethese“exploratory”lineupswillcash(oratleastbreakeven).Ifyou’drathernotinvestapercentageofyourbankrollinThursdaytournamentstogaugeownershiprates(orlackthetimetoorganizethedata),you’llhaveaccesstothisvaluableinformationwithaFootballguyssubscription.OurteamcollectsandanalyzesThursdayownershipdataandexplainshowtobestuseitinclearandconcisearticleseveryweek.

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3.6.2.Early-Yearpitfalls

ByMarkWimerandJamesBrimacombeTheNFLoffseasonbringsninemonthsofdramaticreshufflingaroundtheleague.Coachingchanges,schemeadjustments,free-agentmovement,playerreleases,draftpicks,ongoingrecoveriesfromlastseason’sinjuries,depthchartreversals,newinjuries,suspensions,andotherchangesensurethattheNFLlandscapeinSeptemberwilllookmuchdifferentthanitdidthepreviousDecember.TheidentityofeachNFLteamstartstoformduringorganizedteamactivitiesinMayandJune,andcontinuestoevolvethroughtrainingcampandpreseasongamesinJulyandAugust.AstuteDFSplayerscanlearnfromnewsblurbsandpreseasongames,buttherewillbemisleadingdistractionsalongtheway.OffensiveveteranshavetheirpracticetimemanagedduringOTAsandcamppractices,andtheyrarelyseemeaningfulplayingtimeinpreseasongames.Limitsonpracticetimemaystrainoffensivechemistry,especiallyforteamsinstallingnewoffenses.Weoftenreadreportsduringthepreseasonthatsomeplayeroranotherisinlineforabiggerroleintheoffensethisseason,butsuchreportsoftenproveoverlyoptimistic.Defensesarealsostillworkingoutkinkslateinthepreseason.Coordinatorsplatoonalongthedefensivelineandinthesecondarymoreoftenthanever.Everyyear,defensesprojectedtobegoodfallflatwhiledefensesprojectedtobepooroverachieve.Allofthisleadstomoreuncertaintyaboutplayerperformanceinthefirstmonthoftheseasonthaninlatermonths.Playerprojectionsbuiltonthisuncertaintyarethereforemorespeculativethanlater-seasonprojections,whicharebuiltonbetterdataandsurertrends.

NavigatingtheEarlyUncertainty

Uncertaintyshouldn’tscareyou.Infact,someplayersexploitandthriveonuncertainty—whentheycorrectlyrecognizeit.SomeDFSplayersturnaprofitincashgamesandGPPsintheearlyweeks.Aretheyexploitingtheuncertaintywithasoundstrategywecanapplyduringtheseearlyweeks?Notnecessarily.Unfortunately,theobservationthatsomepeoplewinduringtheearlyweeksdoesnotmeanthatthereisawinningstrategyduringtheearlyweeks.Itdoesnotmeanthatanybodywasplayingwithapositiveexpectation.Afterall,somepeoplewinstatelotteries—butthereisno

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suchthingasawinningstrategyforthat,andnobodyplayswithapositiveexpectation.Sometimesthewinnerssimplygotlucky,whichisnotareproduciblestrategy.Nonetheless,youcanstillrecognizeandplanfortheextrauncertainty:

Ibelieveyoushouldlimityourexposureintheearlyweeks.Waitfordefensivestrengthsandweaknessestoshowthemselvesandprovidethedataneededtoexploitmatchup-pricinginequalities.Inthefirstfourweeksoftheseason,Isuggestbettingonlyaboutaquarteroftheamountyou’dtypicallywagerlaterintheseason.Trendswillemergeandyouwillhaveampleopportunitytoleveragemoreofyourbankrollwhenyouredgeisgreater.—DavidDodds

Bankrollmanagementiscriticalearlyintheseason.Self-restraintcanbedifficultwhenyouhavebeenwaitingeightmonthsforthegameyoulovetogetbackonthefield.Butyoumustavoiddiggingyourselfintoaholeorbustingyourbankrollearly.Waitforexploitabletrendstoemergebeforeyouriskahighpercentageofyourbankroll.—JamesBrimacombe

DFStakesskill,evenintheearlyweeks.Somepeoplewillhaveagreaterexpectationthanothers.EvenifaDFSplayerdoeshaveapositiveexpectationintheearlyweeks,however,it’slikelytobelesspositivethaninlaterweeks.Wageringalower-than-normalpercentageofyourbankrollintheearlyweeksisthereforewarranted.—MaurileTremblay

Ifyouarehighlyanalyticalandbuildyourlineupsbasedonprojections,itmakessensetogolightinthefirstquarteroftheseasonuntilyouhavemorereliabledata.Ifyouaremoreobservationalthananalyticalinyourapproach,itmaybecorrecttobemoreaggressiveearly.—DanHindery

Incompleteinformationmakesprojectionslessaccuratefromtoptobottomintheearlyweeks.OftenthatmeansthetotalpointsneededtofinishinthetoptenoflargeGPPsissignificantlylowerduringtheseearlyweeks.Theminimumthresholdtocashwillalsobelower.ThebestchancetotakedownalargeGPPmaybeduringthefirstfourweeks.—BJVanderWoude

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Uncertaintyduringtheearlyweeksmakesithardertoprojectplayerperformanceaccurately.Thatmeansawiderrangeofexpectationforallplayers,regardlessoftalentandopportunity.Awiderrangeofexpectationmeanshighervarianceinyourlineups.Andvariance,usually,istheenemyofyourbankroll.So,itmakessensetostronglyconsiderlimitingyourexposureduringtheseearlierweeks.Butyourdecisionshouldbebasedonyourpersonalphilosophyofbankrollmanagementandconfidenceinyourlineupinanygivenweek.Ifyoufeelyou’reflyingblindwithoutmultipleweeksoftrendstoconsider,youmaychoosetositoutthefirstweek(ormore)entirelyandsaveyourbankrollforweekswithahigherpositiveexpectation.Ifyou’reconfidentthatyou’veputtogetherahigh-floorlineup,youmaybecomfortableexposingahigherpercentageofyourbankrollbutstillkeepingitunderyourusualweeklyexposure.Ifyou’reahigh-varianceGPPplayer,youmaywelcometheuncertaintyoftheearlyweeksandnotchangeyourapproachmuch,ifatall.Regardlessofhowaggressiveyouchoosetobe,approachtheseweekswithalevel-headedplaninplace.Yourbankrollwillthankyou.

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3.6.3.Impactofweather

ByAlessandroMiglioandMaurileTremblayFantasyandDFSownersgenerallyoverestimatetheeffectsofweatheronplayerproduction.Precipitation,whetherrainorsnow,doesn’tnegativelyimpactoffensesasmuchasyou’dthink(thoughitdoesadverselyaffectkickers).Awetenvironmentmaymakeithardertocarry,throw,runroutes,catch,orcutwiththefootball.Butitmayalsomakeitmoredifficultfordefensivebackstocoverreceiversandfordefensiveendstopass-rush.Warmtemperaturescancausecrampingandcoldtemperaturescanmakeitdifficulttohandlethefootball.Buttheriseofdomedstadiums,coolingfans,sidelineheaters,halftimeIVs,andotherinterventionshavelargelyremovedtemperatureasalimitingfactorforoffenses.Whatdoesseemtoaffectplayerperformance,though,iswind.Passingoffensesareparticularlynegativelyaffected,withtheleagueproducingfewerpassingandreceivingyardsandtotalpointsinthecoldermonthsoftheseason.Conversely,windishelpfulforfantasydefenses.Teamspasstheballlessaswindspeedsincrease.Atspeedsover20milesperhour,teamshavegenerallypassedonaverage10%-15%lessthanusual.Therehasbeennosuchdecreasewithcoldertemperatures.Therehasalsobeenasmalldecreaseinyardsperpassattemptaswindspeedincreased.Ifyouuseover/underlinesandplayerpropsorasetofprojectionsthattakesweatherintoaccount,windspeedandtemperatureandprecipitationarealreadypricedintoplayervalue.ButasmalledgecanswingthebalanceofyourDFScontest—cashorGPP.Weather,especiallywindspeeds,canaffectboththefloorandceilingofaplayeryou’reconsidering.Ifthere’sevenasmallchancethatunexpectedlybadweathermaydecreasepointpotential,it’sworthconsideringacomparablypricedandsimilarlyprojectedoptioninbetterweather.

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3.6.4.Enteringcontestsearlyandthenadjustingdummylineups

ByJamesBrimacombeandSteveBuzzardFindingandexploitingsmalledgesisakeypartofasuccessfulcash-gamestrategy.Improvingyourchancesofwinningbyjustapercentagepointortwocanturnalosingweek(orseason)intoawinningone.Oneofthemostoverlookedwaystoimproveyourreturnoninvestmentistobeginsigningupforcontestsearlyintheweek.Ifyou’reahigh-volumecash-gameplayer,you’llneedtoentertheearlyweekcontestsbynecessity.It’stheonlywaytoensureyoucanenterthenumberofgamesatthepricepointyouwant.Buttherearealsogoodreasonsforsmall-volumeplayerstoconsiderenteringearlyweekgames.Signingupforcashgames,especially50/50sandDoubleUps,assoonastheyarepostedoftenpitsyouagainstplayerswhoputinalineupearlyintheweekbutthenforgettoadjustthatlineupforinjurynews,depthchartupdates,andweatherchanges.Playingagainstthosesuboptimallineupscangiveyouasignificantadvantage.WaitingtoentercontestsuntilSundaymorning,ontheotherhand,oftenmatchesyouupagainstplayersconfidentlyenteringtheirmostoptimallineups.Thesearetheconteststhesharksareenteringasoftenaspossibleaftermakingtheirlast-minutechanges.Ofcourse,youmustsubmityourownsuboptimallineupwhenenteringtheseearlyweekcontests.Besureyou’llbeavailabletomakeimprovementstotheselineupslaterintheweek.Whileyoucanenteryourcurrentbestlineup,it’seasiesttoenterthesameplaceholderlineupforeachcontest.Asimplewaytodothisistochoosearosterfulloflow-salaryplayersyouhavenointerestinusing.YoucantweakjustoneoftheselineupsonSaturdayandthenexportthatlineuptoyourothercontestsquicklyandeasily.Let’sconsiderareal-lifeexampleofthisduringWeek3ofthe2014footballseason.LeadinguptothekickoffoftheThursdaynightgame,twosignificantinactiveswereannounced.Both,whilenotshocks,wereslightlysurprisingasitwasannouncedRoddyWhiteandDougMartinwouldn’tbeplaying.WealsofoundoutthattherewasnowachancethatJamaalCharleswouldplayonSunday,whereitwaspreviouslypredictedthathewouldnotbeplaying.ThissignificantlychangedthevaluesofJulioJones,HarryDouglas,BobbyRainey,andKnileDavis.Duetothesechanges,Iquicklyreshuffledmyprojections,whichinturnchangedmyvaluerankings.WhichtypeofDFSplayerisgoingtobeinthebestpositiontotakeadvantageofsuchchangesinvalue?TheplayerwhosubmittedhislineuponTuesdaymorningandisnowsittingatthebarhangingoutwithhisfriends,ortheplayerwhoissittingathomesigningupforgames?

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Personally,Iwanttoplayagainstopponentswhodon'tupdatetheirrostersshortlybeforekickoff,whichusuallymeansplayerswhosigneduponTuesdaymorning.Tofullyillustratethisspecificexample,let’sdigalittledeeper.IwasinsomeDoubleUpsthatspecificweekthathadopenedupearlyintheweekandsomethathadopenedupjusthoursbeforegametime.Let’slookatthedifferenceinplayerselectionforsomeofthekeyplayersmentionedabove.

Player EarlyWeekOwnership ThursdayOwnershipBobbyRainey 5% 45%JulioJones 10% 32%HarryDouglas 1% 9%KnileDavis 11% 1%

Weseeexactlywhatwasexpected.Manypeoplewhobuilttheirrostersearlyintheweekdidn’tupdatetheirlineupswhennewinformationpresenteditself.Theymissedoutonvaluebyfallingasleepatthewheel.Lineupssetclosertokickoffaremoresuccessfulbecausetheyreflectthelatestnewsandinjuryupdates.Bysigningupearlyintheweekwithplaceholderlineupsandupdatingyourrostersclosetogametime,you’llincreaseyourchancesofwinningbyfacingweakeropponentswithoutdatedlineups.YoucanalsoentertheseplaceholderlineupsintoGPPsearlyintheweek,especiallyforthosetournamentsyouknowarelikelytofilleachweek.Youcanimprovetheseplaceholderlineupsandexportthemasyouwouldyourcash-gamelineups.Usingplaceholderlineupsisasmartwaytoincreaseyourweeklybankrollexposureincashgamesandtournaments.Whileyouwillundoubtedlyseesomehighvolumeandhighlysuccessfulusernamessignupalongsideyou,thepercentageofweakerDFSplayers(andlineups)willbehigher,too.Ifyouarecertainyou’llbeabletoadjustyourearlyweekentries,gettingintonumerousgamesagainstopponentswithweakerlineupsshouldbeapartofyourweeklystrategy.

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3.6.5.Sundayinactivelists

ByMaurileTremblayAlltheworkweputintoformulatingourlineupsduringtheweekcanberenderedmootwhenaplayerisunexpectedlydeclaredinactive90minutesbeforegametime.Ifwe’vegotDeMarco

Murrayin20%ofourlineupsandwefindoutonSundaymorningthathe’snotplaying,we’vegottoadjust—fast!ExactlyhowbigaproblemthisisdependsonyourstyleofDFSplay.Ifyoutendtoplayonjustonesiteandenteronlyafewcontestseachweek,youcangenerallyreformulateyourlineupsfromscratchonSundaymorningbasedonthelatestsetsofprojections.Inactivelistsgenerallycomeout90minutesbeforegametime,andtheprojectionsatFootballguys.comaregenerallyupdatedatleast50minutesbeforeSunday’skickoffs.Ifyou’reonlyadjustingfourorfivelineups,youshouldhavetimeto

checktheseprojectionsandstartoverifyouneedtoonSundaymorning.IfyouwillnotbeavailabletoadjustyourlineupsonSundaymorning,werecommendthatyoumainlysticktoThursdaycontests.ItisaseveredisadvantagetobeunabletoadjustyourlineupsonSundaymorningwhenmanyofyouropponentswillbedoingso.ButifyouareplayinghundredsofcontestsacrossnumerousDFSsites,youwillnotbeabletoreformulateeachofyourlineupsfromscratch.You’llneedtoengageinabitoftriage.Ifyoulosearunningback,asintheDeMarcoMurrayexample,youmaybeabletofindanotherrunningbackyoulikenearlyasmuchforthesameprice.Inthatcase,asimpleacross-the-boardsubstitutionwillsolveyourproblem.ButyoumightchoosetoswitchMurrayoutforhisnow-promotedNFLteammate,DerrickHenry,whohappenstohaveacheapersalary.Younowhaveextramoneytospendatotherpositions.It’seasytogetcaughtupmakingmultiplechangestoyourlineupinthatscenario,tryingdifferentcombinationsatlotsofdifferentpositions.Theproblem,ofcourse,isthatkickoffisfastapproaching,andyoucan’tdawdlearoundmakingfourorfivesubstitutionsperaffectedlineup.

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Thebestwaytohandleacriticallast-minuteadjustmentistoflagallthelineupsaffectedbyalatescratch.Thenstartwiththelineupwiththegreatestdollaramountridingonit(whetherinasinglecontestorinmultiplecontests).Ifyouhavetime,andifyou’rewellorganized,youcankeepthecharacteristicsofthislineupthatgaveititspurpose—maybeitwasaMattRyan-JulioJonesstackyouwanttoanchorallyourtournamentlineups,ormaybeitwasdiversifyingawayfromArianFosterbecauseotherwisehe’sintoomanyofyourlineups.Ifyouhavetime,goaheadandkeepRyanandJones,orgoaheadandexcludeFoster,andstartbuildingyourlineupbackupwithDerrickHenry.Whenyoustarttorunlowontime,youmayhavetogiveupyourmeta-lineupconsiderations,likeusingtheAtlantastackordiversifyingawayfromArianFoster.JustclearyourlineupswithMurray,andimportnon-Murraylineupsintheirplaces.Youmayendupwithmorecopiesofthesameimportedlineupsthanyou’dlike—andwithlessdiversificationthanisoptimal—butthat’sbetterthanincludingascratchedplayerinyourlineup.Thesesurpriselate-scratchsituationswillhappentoeventhebestDFSplayers.Ifthelatescratchwasn’tasurprise,youshouldn’thavehadthatplayerinyourlineuptobeginwith.Youcan’tplanforaspecificscratchinaspecificweek,butyoucanhaveageneralplantohandlethesesurpriseswhentheyoccur.Makesureyou’reavailabletomakelast-minuteadjustmentstoyourlineupwhenneeded.

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4.EvaluatingPlayers

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4.1.Differentmindsetfromtraditionalredraft

ByMaurileTremblayIntraditionalleaguesyouacquireplayerswhomaynotbefantasystarters,butwhowillbecomeworthwhilelater.Talentandopportunityarebothimportant,butinthelongrun,talentwinsout.Yourscoutingeyeuncoversdiamondsintheroughwhoenduphavingtremendousvalueoncetheyshowsomepolish.Indailyfantasy,noneofthatmatters.Thelongrunisirrelevant.Ifaplayerisworkinghiswayintoafeaturedrolebutisstillafewweeksaway,forgetabouthim.YougainnoadvantagefrombeingabetterscoutthanyourDFSopponents,identifyinglong-termpotential,andbuyingbeforeotherscatchon.MuchlikeNFLcoachestelltheirplayers,wearefocusingonlyonthiscomingweek.

Butshouldn’twerosterplayerspoisedtobreakoutthisweek?Asarule,no.Indailyfantasywevalueprovenperformersoverbreakoutcandidates.Tobesure,therearesituationswhereaplayerisgettinghisfirststartduetoateammate’sinjury,andhe’sterriblyunderpricedbecausetheinjurywasconfirmedafterhissalarywassetonSundayevening.Theseplayersareoftenworthrostering,butit’snotbecausewe’reexpectingabreakoutperformance.It’sbecausethey’repricedsolowthatevenarun-of-the-millperformancewillprovidesolidvalue.

Identifyingandgrabbinggenuinebreakoutcandidateshasbothahigherriskandalowerrewardindailyfantasythanitdoesinyear-longleagues.Theriskishigherbecauseyouhavetoidentifyboththerightplayerandtherightweek.Ifyou’reaweekortwoearlyinseason-longleagues,theplayerwillstillhelpyoueventually.NotsoinDFS.Ifyouidentifytherightplayeraweekearly,youdon’tgetpartialcredit.Youlose.EvenifyoutotallynailabreakoutpredictioninDFS,you’llbenefitforexactlyoneweek.Thisisn’tatraditionalfantasyleaguewhereyoureaptherewardsfortherestoftheseason.Oncethecatisoutofthebagindailyfantasy,everyoneelsecanstarthimforthesamepriceyou’llhavetopay.There’snodiscountforanearlybuy-in.Becausetheriskishigherandtherewardislower,tryingtoidentifysleepersmakesmuchlesssenseinDFSthanitdoesintraditionalfantasyleagues.Letyouropponentsgoonthissnipehunt,whileyoufocusonrosteringreliablevalue.

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4.2.PlayerSalaries

ByJeffPasquinoWhenitcomestimetocreateyourDFSlineupeachweek,oneofthefirstconsiderationshastobeplayersalaries.FootballisuniqueinDFSinthatthereistypicallyaverylongtime(approximatelyafullweek)thatagivensetofsalariesisineffect,whichcanallowforalotofvaluestoemerge.PricesaresetlateSundayonFanDuelforthefollowingweek,soagreatdealcanhappentoaffectprojectionsbeforekickoff.Startingplayerscanchange,injuriescanoccur,andsurprisesonSundayandMondayNightFootballcanallimpactthevalueofagivenplayer.Moreover,howefficient(thatis,accurateaccordingtogoodprojections)theoverallpricingisinagivenweekcangreatlyimpacthoweasyordifficultitisforagoodDFSplayertogainapositiveexpectation.Iftherearefewbargains,thepricingmodelforaDFSsiteisconsidered“tight,”whileifbargainsareeasytocomeby,thepricingisconsidered“loose.”GoodDFSplayersarehappiestwhenthepricingisneitheroverlytightnoroverlyloose.Ifthepricingistootight,therewillbetoofewinefficienciesforgoodplayerstoexploit.Itdoesn’tmatterifI’mbetterthanaverageatfindingbargainsiftherejustaren’tanytobefound.Conversely,ifthepricingistooloose,thebargainswillbesoobviousthatevenanunskilledplayerwillfillhisrosterwiththem.Ideally,therewillbeinefficienciestoexploit,buttheywillbefewenoughorsubtleenoughthatonlyexperts—includingreadersofthisbook—willreliablyidentifythem.Sohowcanyoudetermineifagivenweek’spricingistightorloose?Anexperiencedplayercangobyfeel.Ifit'sparticularlyeasytoconstructastronglineupbecausethebestvaluesstandoutasbeingobvious,thepricingmaybeoverlyloose.Ifit'sespeciallydifficulttofilloutyourlineupbecausethereareagreatnumberofplayersbunchedcloselytogetheratthetopofthevaluechart(wherevalue=pointsperdollar),withfewornonestandingoutfromtherest,thepricingmaybeoverlytight.Withoutrelyingonfeel,youcanusetheFootballguys’InteractiveValueCharts(seeSection4.7)asaguide.Sortbyvalue(eitherbypositionoroverall,eitherbypointsperdollarorH-value),andseewhethertheorderofthelistchangesmuchdependingonwhoseprojectionsyouareusing.Ifalloftheprojectorsagreeonwhothetopvaluesare,thatindicatesloosepricing.Ifthetopvaluesaresignificantlydifferentbasedonwhichindividualsetofprojectionsyouareusing,thatindicatestightpricing.Ifthepricingisparticularlylooseorparticularlytightinagivenweek,youmayconsiderinvestingasmallerpercentageofyourbankrollthannormalinthatweek.

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4.3.Heuristics

By David Dodds Peoplewhoplaydailyfantasygamesarealllookingforthatsilverbullet,themagicalformulacombiningallrelevantcriteriatooutputplayerswhowillwincontests.Ihavespentcountlesshourscombiningmultipledatasets(FanDuelpricing,myprojections,Vegaslines,andactualperformance)inhopesoffindingaconsistentapproachtotheselectionofplayers.AndIwanttosharemyfindingswithyou.Butbeforewejumpdeepintothedata,IshouldexplainsometermsIwilluseoften.Ratio–CalculateRatiobydividingprojectedpointsbysalary(inthousands).Forexample,ImightprojectDrewBreestoscore23.3pointswhenhissalaryis$9,200.Hisratiowouldthenbe23.3/(9200/1000)=2.53.Multiplier–ThiscalculationisthesameasRatiobutusesactualfantasypointsscoredinsteadofprojectedpoints.H-Value–Takeprojectedpointsraisedtothesquarerootofthree,dividebysalary,andthenmultiplyby2,000.IntheDrewBreesexampleabove,hisH-valuewouldbe50.8.PointSpreadorLine–Bothrefertoateam’smarginofdefeatasprojectedbytheLasVegassportsbooks.Over/Under–Thisreferstothetotalpointsexpectedtobescoredbybothteamsinagame(asestablishedbytheVegassportsbooks).Expected(Team)Points–Youcancalculateeachteam’sprojectedVegastotalusingPointSpreadandOver/Under.IfNewOrleansisfavoredby3pointsinagamewitha53pointOver/Under,theirexpectedteamtotalwouldbe:(53-3)/2+3=28points.

4.3.1.FanDuelPricingAlgorithm

Idon’tknowtheexactformulaFanDuelusestocreatepriceseachweek,butIdoknowithaslittletodowiththeupcomingmatchup.Theirpricingstrategyseemstofactorinthesetwovariables:

• Didtheplayerimproveuponhisfantasypointspergamesincelastweek?• Wastheplayerhighlyownedthisweek?

Withthiskindofpricingmodel,therearesignificantpriceanomalieseachweek.ThosebecomethevalueplaysweprojecttohavelargeRatiosandH-Values.

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4.3.2.TheHypothesis

Ifmyprojectionsaresound,IwouldexpectthatchoosingplayersIhavepredictedtohavehighRatiosandH-Valueswouldyieldbetterthanaverageresults.Let’stearintothedatatoseeifmyhypothesisholdstrue.

4.3.3.Quarterbacks

Overthecourseof17weekslastseason,FanDueloffered1,281quarterbackchoices.Ofcourse,themajorityofthesewerenevergoingtoplay.ScottTolzien,forexample,wasneverarealisticoption.Narrowingthefielddowntoquarterbacksprojectedtoscoreatleast10fantasypointsinaweekyielded502options.Choosingrandomlyfromthese502playerswouldhaveproducedokresults:

• Averagecost=$7,350• Averageproduction=17.24FP• Multiplier=2.35

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Asyoucansee,quarterbacksroutinelyhittwicetheirsalary(asmeasuredinthousandsofdollars).Thisisanimportantmeasurebecauseyoursalarycapis$60,000,andscoring120pointsinacashgamewillusuallyputyouinthemoney.You'rethereforelookingforeachplayertoscoretwicetheirsalary.Wecandoalotbetterthanrandomthough,andthedatahelpspointustowardsasolution.

Category Cost FP Entries Multiplierall $7,350 17.24 502 2.35

ratio=2.35+ $7,128 18.10 252 2.54H-Value=37.4+ $7,649 19.10 244 2.50

ExpPts=22.75+ $7,812 19.07 245 2.44home $7,330 17.82 250 2.43

favored $7,720 18.77 248 2.43O/U $7,756 18.51 224 2.39

combos ratio,H $7,398 19.19 185 2.59

ratio,H,home $7,387 19.11 109 2.59ratio,H,fav $7,655 19.69 110 2.57ratio,H,Exp $7,650 20.18 125 2.64

ratio=2.45+,H,Exp $7,431 20.26 75 2.73ratio=2.50+,H,Exp $7,265 20.45 57 2.81

Bylookingnearthemidpointofabunchofourvariables,weseeinthetablethatallofthesefactorsimproveourselectioncriteria:Ratio,H-Value,ExpectedPoints,Home,Favored,andOver/Under.Theseallmakesensetome.RatioandH-ValuearethebestindicatorstoshowFanDuelpriceanomalies.PlayersthatIhaveflaggedasthemostsignificantlyunderpricedcorrelatehighlytooutperformingarandomplayer(wheremostarecorrectlypriced).Home,Favored,highOver/Undergames,andhighExpectedTeamPointsallwilllikelyproduceagreaternumberofoutstandingperformances,skewingthedataupwardaswell.SinceExpectedPointsisacombinationofbothPointSpreadandOver/Under,IwascuriouswhattheintersectionofthesemidpointsofRatio,H-Value,andExpectedPointswouldlooklike.Fromthetable,thatproduced125choiceswiththeseresults:

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• AverageCost=$7,650• Averageproduction=20.18FP• Multiplier=2.64

IwasabletolowertheaveragecostoftheplayerwhileincreasingfantasyproductionbytighteninguptheRatioevenfurther.AtRatio=2.50+,H-Value=37.4+,andExpectedPoints=22.75+,thedatasummarizedasfollows:

• 57choicesforweeks1-17• Averagecost=$7,265• Averageproduction=20.45FP• Multiplier=2.81• Dollarsperpoint=$355• 45of57hit2xvalue(78.9%)• 21of57hit3xvalue(36.8%)

4.3.4.RunningBacks

Overthecourseofa17-weekregularseason,FanDueloffered2,331runningbackchoices.Ifapersonthrewdartsataboard,theywouldhavereachedthecash-gamegoalof2xjust12.6%ofthetime(293times).Wecandobetterthanarandomdartthrow.Consideringonlyrunningbacksprojectedtoscoreatleasteightfantasypointsinaweekyielded587options.Choosingrandomlyfromamongthese587playerswouldhavestillproducedsub-parresults:

• AverageCost=$6,696• Averageproduction=11.13FP• Multiplier=1.66

Butwecandowaybetterthanrandom,andthedatahastheanswers.

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Category Cost FP Entries Multiplierall $6,696 11.13 587 1.66

ratio=1.79+ $6,879 12.49 290 1.82H-Value=21.9+ $7,210 12.72 289 1.76

home $6,667 11.39 295 1.71ExpPts=23+ $6,710 11.38 294 1.70

favored $6,750 11.15 307 1.65O/U $6,687 10.87 274 1.63

combos ratio,H $7,083 12.89 253 1.82

ratio,H,home $7,052 12.69 109 1.80ratio,H,Exp $7,253 13.71 116 1.89

ratio=1.90+,H,Exp $7,178 13.97 89 1.95ratio=1.95+,H,Exp $7,164 14.44 76 2.02

Again,thesignificantvariablesareRatioandH-Value.Surprisingly,Over/UnderandFavoredcategoriesactuallyledtoworsedatasetsin2015.ThebestdatasetagaincomesfromtheintersectionofRatio,H-Value,andExpectedTeamPoints.Fromthetable,thatcombinationoffactorsproduced116choiceswiththeseresults:

• AverageCost=$7,253• Averageproduction=13.71FP• Multiplier=1.89

Iwasabletolowertheaveragecostoftheplayerwhileincreasingfantasyproductionbytighteninguptheratioevenfurther.Atratio=1.95+,H-Value=21.9+,andExpectedPoints=23.0+,thedatasummarizedasfollows:

• 76choicesforweeks1-17• Averagecost=$7,164• Averageproduction=14.44FP• Multiplier=2.02• Dollarsperpoint=$496• 33of76hit2xvalue(43.4%)• 15of76hit3xvalue(19.7%)

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4.3.5.WideReceivers

Muchliketherunningbackposition,ifaDFSplayerweretorandomlychoosehiswidereceivers,hewouldbefacinglongoddsatgrabbingonethatwasvaluable.FanDueloffered3,221receiversoverthecourseoftheregularseason.Thesereceiverscostanaverageof$5,243whileyieldingjust4.4fantasypoints.Consideringonlywidereceiversthatwereprojectedtoscoreatleasteightfantasypointsinaweektightenedthelistto763optionsinthatspan.Choosingrandomlyfromamongthese763playerswouldhaveproducedaverageresults:

• AverageCost=$6,777• Averageproduction=11.60FP• Multiplier=1.71

Guesswhat?Wecandoalotbetterthanrandom.

Category Cost FP Entries Multiplierall $6,777 11.60 763 1.71

H-Value=20.5+ $7,387 13.80 377 1.87ratio=1.72+ $7,032 12.79 374 1.82

ExpPts=23.25+ $6,902 12.27 369 1.78favored $6,860 12.06 399 1.76home $6,774 11.78 383 1.74O/U $6,833 11.81 393 1.73

ratio,H $7,276 13.50 316 1.86

ratio,H,Exp $7,398 13.88 182 1.88ratio,H-val=23+,Exp $7,605 14.53 151 1.91

Again,thesignificantvariablesareRatioandH-Value.It’sworthnotingthatthebestdatacamefromH-value.ThismakessenseasH-Valuerewardshigherpricedoptions,andmuchofwidereceivers’valuecomesfromtouchdowns.ThebestdatasetagaincomesfromtheintersectionofRatio,H-Value,andExpectedTeamPoints.Fromthetable,thatcriteriaproduced182choiceswiththeseresults:

• AverageCost=$7,398• Averageproduction=13.88FP• Multiplier=1.88

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IwasabletoproduceamoreelitesetofdatabyscreeningH-Valuefurtherto23+.AtRatio=1.72+,H-Value=23+,andExpectedPoints=23.25+,thedatasummarizedasfollows:

• 151choicesforweeks1-17• Averagecost=$7,605• Averageproduction=14.53FP• Multiplier=1.91• Dollarsperpoint=$523• 63of151hit2xvalue(41.7%)• 22of151hit3xvalue(14.6%)

4.3.6.TightEnds

TightEndsareroughtoroster.Youhavetochooseoneeachweek,andthey’regoingtoletyoudownalotofthetime.Exceptforacoupleofelitetightends,mostoftheplayersatthispositionwillonlyachievetwicetheirvalueiftheyscoreatouchdown.Aswiththeotherskillpositions,ifyouweretochooseatightendrandomly,youwouldbefacinglongoddsofgrabbingonethatwasvaluable.FanDueloffered1,691choicesduringthe2015regularseason,andtheycostanaverageof$4,815whileyieldinganaverageofjust2.9fantasypoints.Consideringonlytightendsthatwereprojectedtoscoreatleastsixfantasypointsinaweekyielded338options.Choosingrandomlyfromamongthese338playerswouldhaveproducedaverageresults:

• AverageCost=$5,636• Averageproduction=8.83FP• Multiplier=1.57

Andyouguessedit.Wecandoalotbetterthanrandom.

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Category Cost FP Entries Multiplierall $5,636 8.83 338 1.57

H-Value=15.0+ $6,063 10.32 169 1.70ratio=1.57+ $5,996 10.15 175 1.69

ExpPts=23.25+ $5,686 9.42 169 1.66favored $5,715 9.89 176 1.73home $5,628 9.67 166 1.72O/U $5,701 9.00 164 1.58

combos ratio,H $6,060 10.25 164 1.69

Ratio,H,fav $6,266 10.88 82 1.74ratio,H,Exp $6,251 10.98 74 1.76

Themostsignificantvariablesfortightendsareshoesizeandnumberofcalorieseatenthreehourspriortogametime.Justkidding.It’sRatioandH-Valueagain.It’sworthnotingthatthebestdatacamefromH-value.ThismakessensetomeasH-Valuerewardshigherpricedoptions,andlikewidereceivers,alotofatightend’svaluecomesfromscoringtouchdowns.TheintersectionofRatio,H-Value,andExpectedTeamPointsprovidesthebestdatasetagain.Fromthetable,thatproduced74choiceswiththeseresults:

• 74choicesforweeks1-17• Averagecost=$6,251• Averageproduction=10.98FP• Multiplier=1.76• Dollarsperpoint=$569• 29of74hit2xvalue(39.2%)• 10of74hit3xvalue(13.5%)

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4.3.7.Kickers

FanDuelcontinuestousethekickingpositionintheirdailycontests,soweareanalyzingithere.ScreeningforkickersthatIprojectedtoscoreatleastsixfantasypointsyielded489options.Choosingrandomlyfromamongthese489playerswouldhaveproducedaverageresults:

• AverageCost=$4,719• Averageproduction=8.07fantasypoints• Multiplier=1.71

Wecandoalittlebetterthanrandom,evenwithkickers.

Category Cost FP Entries Multiplierall $4,719 8.07 489 1.71

ratio=1.76+ $4,770 8.43 248 1.77H-Value=16.5+ $4,790 8.46 248 1.77

favored $4,776 8.29 245 1.74ExpPts=22.75+ $4,776 8.38 242 1.75

home $4,710 8.20 246 1.74O/U=45+ $4,743 8.20 254 1.73

combos ratio,H $4,785 8.47 235 1.77

ratio,H,fav $4,809 8.47 180 1.76ratio,H,Exp $4,797 8.47 192 1.77

ratio=1.9+,H,Exp $4,841 8.61 102 1.78

ThebestdatasetagaincomesfromtheintersectionofRatio,H-Value,andExpectedTeamPoints.FurthertweakingtheRatio(Ratio=1.9+)criteriayieldsslightlybetterdata:

• 102choicesforweeks1-17• Averagecost=$4,841• Averageproduction=8.61FP• Multiplier=1.78• Dollarsperpoint=$562• 38of102hit2xvalue(37.3%)• 12of102hit3xvalue(11.8%)

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4.3.8.Defenses

Aswithkickers,manyplayersstressoverhowtoidentifyatopdefense.Andaswithkickers,identifyingtopdefensesisnotasrandomasitseems.In2015,FanDuelgaveplayers505optionstochooseduringtheregularseason.Ofthose505teamdefenseperformances,only112scoredtwicetheirsalary(thedesiredoutputforcashgames),andjust46reachedthreetimes(desiredlevelintournaments).Arandomselectionyieldedthefollowing:

• AverageCost=$4,390• Averageproduction=6.8fantasypoints• Multiplier=1.55

Andthetablebelowcontainsdatatohelpusoutperformthatmultiplier.

Category Cost FP Entries Multiplierall $4,500 7.46 502 1.66

ratio=1.92+ $4,614 8.36 249 1.81H-Value=18.4+ $4,651 8.41 248 1.81

favored $4,669 8.44 249 1.81ExpPts=22.75+ $4,633 8.22 245 1.77

home $4,494 7.51 251 1.67O/U $4,462 7.14 260 1.60

combos ratio,H $4,643 8.46 236 1.82

ratio,H,fav $4,706 8.74 192 1.86ratio,H,Exp $4,728 8.82 163 1.87

ratio=2.10+,H,Exp $4,748 9.47 99 1.99

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ThebestdatasetagaincomesfromtheintersectionofRatio,H-ValueandExpectedTeamPoints.Furthertweakingtheratio(Ratio=2.10+)criteriayieldsslightlybetterdata:

• 99choicesforweeks1-17• Averagecost=$4,748• Averageproduction=9.47FP• Multiplier=1.99• Dollarsperpoint=$562• 39of99hit2xvalue(39.4%)• 25of99hit3xvalue(25.3%)

4.3.9.GoingForward

AlthoughIlookedbackwardsat2015data,onecaneasilyapplythissamecriteriagoingforward.Foraposition,simplyperformthesetwosteps:

1. Fromareliablesetofprojections(Iwouldsuggestusingmine),notethemeanvaluesofH-Value,Ratio,andExpectedTeamPointsforallplayerswithaminimumthresholdofprojectedfantasypoints(QB=10,RB/WR=8,TE/PK=6).

2. Sortthelisttoincludeallvaluesabovethemeanforallthreeofthekeyvariables(H-Value,Ratio,andExpectedTeamPoints).

Thisisnowasolidlistforyoutodigdeeperintothedata.Homegamesaregenerallybetterthanawaygames.Playersgenerallyscoremorefantasypointsasfavorites,athome,withhighExpectedTeamPoints.AndhigherRatiosandH-Valuesusuallyyieldbetterresultsaswell.

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4.4.Roundtables

4.4.1Quarterbacks

JohnLee:Ofalltheskilledpositions,thequarterbackpositionistheonerosterslotwithwhichIammostselective.Why?Because,frankly,itisthesinglepositionthatIbelieveismostpredictablefromweektoweek.Runningbackswillbesubstitutedonthirddownplays,widereceiverscanexperiencesuboptimalmatchupsandbeforcedtosharetargets,andtightendsarealltoooftenacrapshoot;butquarterbacksneversplitpassattemptswithanotherquarterback,theycanscorefantasypointswiththeirarmsandtheirlegs,andtheirinvolvementintheoffenseisquitepredictableafteranalyzingVegas’gamescript.Soforacashgame,Iwantaquarterbackwhoconsistentlyaverages35ormorepassattemptsperweek,regardlessofgamescript;thoseopportunitiesequatetofantasyoutput.ChoosingaGPPquarterbackisabitdicier,asitshouldbe.Whenconsideringtournamentquarterbacks,Iamlookingforoneofseveralscenarios:

1. aquarterbackwhowillbeplayingfrombehindformostofthegameandwillbeforcedtoairitouttokeeppacewiththeopposingoffense

2. aquarterbackwhoisgoingtobedramaticallyunder-owned(<5%ownership)duetorecencybiasorprice,buthastheabilitytoreachGPPvalue

3. acheapbackupquarterbackwhodoesnotneedtoputupbignumberstoachievevalue4. aquarterbackfacingasecondarythathasnotdemonstratedanabilitytoslowdownan

opposingpassinggame5. asavvyquarterbackwhowillbeaskedtocarryanadditionalloadafterakeymemberof

therunninggamehasbeenannouncedasinactiveforthatgivenweek.Ineachofthesecases,IamfocusingonupsideandemphasizinglikelylowownershiptoincreasetheimpactofabigperformanceonmyoverallstandingintheGPP.

MarkWimer:Ifirstlookatwhichquarterbacksgettofacetheworstpassdefenses.Ifstudquarterbackshavedrawnlamepassdefenses,thatvaultsthemtothetopofmylist.ThenIconsidercheaperquarterbackswhoarelessconsistentbutstillhaveupside.IalsoconsultFootballguys’projectionsbyDavidDodds,MaurileTremblay,andSigmundBloom.AndIdigintoBobHenry’sSleepersarticleandMattBitonti’sOffensiveLineNotes.Ifaquarterback’soffensivelineisfallingapartduetoinjuries,he’llhavepassprotectionissues,soIliketomonitorthehealthofthebigguysupfront.Finally,Imakesuretherearenocurrentinjuryworrieswitheachquarterback’stopthreereceivers.

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JeffPasquino:There’snobetterplacetofindvalueonapoints-per-dollarbasisonFanDuelthanatthequarterbackposition.Nominally,basedonprojectionsthatwealluseatFootballguys,thequarterbackpositionprojectstoproducethemostfantasypointsper$10Kofanyposition.Eachweekabout10quarterbacksareprojectedtoscore23fantasypointsper$10K,whileeliteRBsandWRshovercloserto20.Thatmeansthereisagreatdealofincentiveto“payup”andbuyanelitequarterbackonFanDuel,justbecauseyouaregoingtogetmorebangforyourbuckatquarterbackthanatanyotherposition.Asfaraswhichquarterbackstochoose,IamallaboutusingtheLasVegastotals(lookingforthehighestprojectedscoringgames)andtheweakmatchups.Ifanelitequarterbackisgoingtobeinacontestthatprojectstohave48+pointsscoredthatweek,hemakesmyshortlist.Ialsoconsiderhowstrongtherungameisforthatteam,andiftheyhaveissuesattherunningbackposition.Iwantateamthatalmosthasnochoicebuttothrow.Iwanttofindthat300+yardpassingquarterbackwhohasagoodshotatthreetouchdowns.Anotherpointthatshouldnotbeoverlookedisthequarterbackwiththeabilitytorun,especiallynearthegoalline.Arushingtouchdownisworthtwomorepointsthanapassingtouchdown.WhilenottheprimarygoalofQBselection,rushingabilitybreaksanythingnearatieforme.

DanHindery:IapproachbothGPPandcash-gameQBselectionverysimilarlywithonlythreerealdifferences.First,IammoreconcernedwithprojectedownershiptotalsinselectingaGPPquarterback.IammorelikelytotakeatopQBwithwhatisperceivedtobeamoredifficultmatchupinaGPPifIfeelhewillbelessownedandthereisahighceilingforhisproduction(evenifthereisalowerfloorthannormal).Second,IammorelikelytoworktofindaslightlycheaperQBinaGPPthaninacashgame.IusuallywillnotbelookingtosavetoomuchmoneyatQBinanyformat,butIammorelikelytoworktofindan$8,000optionversusa$9,500optioninaGPPthanIaminacashgameduetoaneedforallofmypositionstoputuphugenumbersinaGPP.Lastly,foreaseofstackinginGPPs,IpreferaQBwithoneortwostrongreceiversversusaQBwhospreadstheballaround.

IntermsofhowIapproachtheQBposition,threerulesIliketofolloware:1.Don’tgettoocuteatQB.WhiletherewilloftenbeatemptationtotrytouseacheapQBwhohasanicematchuponpaper,IwillfightthisurgeandstickwithprovencommoditiesatthepositionevenifIhavetopayupfortheprivilege.Nomattertheformat,theoddssayitisgenerallyworthspendingmoreonQBandfindingbargainsatotherpositions.Itismucheasiertofindlower-pricedoptionsatRB,WRandTEthanatQB.

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2.PayattentiontoCBinjuriesontheopposingdefense.ItishardenoughundertheNFL’scurrentrulestocoverwidereceiversandslowdownthetopquarterbacks,butitbecomesalmostimpossiblewhenadefensehastorelyonbackupcornerbackstogetthejobdone.Everyonewillbeawareofquarterbacksfacingweakpassdefenses,butnoteveryonewillspottheusuallysoliddefensethatwillstruggleduetoinjuries.3.TargetQBsplayingagainstanothertopQB.Whilethestrengthoftheopposingpassdefenseisobviouslyafactor,gamescriptcanoftenbedeterminednotbythestrengthoftheopposingdefense,butbythestrengthoftheopposingoffense.Coacheswillalwaysbemoreconservativeintheiroffensiveplaycallingwhenfacingaweakpassingoffensethatisunlikelytoscorealotofpoints.Inaddition,ifyourQB’steamgetsouttoanearlylead,theplaycallingwillgetevenmoreconservativeasthefearofacomebackislowagainstaweakQB.Ontheotherhand,whenmatchedupagainstastrongoffensewithaneliteQB,theplaycallingismuchmorelikelytobeaggressivewiththeneedtoscorealotofpointstohaveachancetowin.JeffPasquino:There’ssomethingIwantedtoaddtothisdiscussion,whichisthedebateoverwhetherornottotakeacheapquarterbackinagivenweek.First,cheapstartingquarterbacksdon’tcomealongtoooften.Usuallyitisabackupgettingasurprisestart,eitherduetoinjuryorabenchingofthenormalstarter.Thatleadstoanopportunitytogocheapatquarterback,whichaffordsyoumoresalarybudgettotargethigher-pricedskill-positionplayers.Sothedebateisthis—doyoutakeadvantageofthatcheapquarterback,ordoyougowithahigher-pricedoptionthatweek?Forme,itcomesdowntoafewsimplequestions.First,isthischeapoptionarookieoraveryinexperiencedquarterback?Ifheis,Iamdoneandnottakingthischeapoption.FartoooftenIhaveseennewerquarterbackswiththe“deerintheheadlights”lookintheireyesintheirfirstfewstarts,andthefantasyperformancesaretypicallytrainwrecks.Ifthebackupthatgetsthrustintothestartingroleisaveteran,Iammuchmoreinclinedtoconsiderthecheapplay.AustinLee:Asothershavementioned,studyingVegaslinesisakeypartoftheprocessforselectinganyposition,andquarterbackshavethemostdirectconnectiontohowthosegamescriptsplayout.Whenlookingatquarterbackmatchups,IusemyNormalizedStrengthofScheduletool,availableatFootballguys.com.Insteadoflookingattherawdata,Iprefertolookatsummarydatathathasalreadyadjustedforthequalityofopponents.Withmytool,youcanquicklyseethepercentagesthatdefensesallowopponentstoover-performinopportunities,yardage,touchdowns,andtotalfantasypoints.

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IalsolovewhatDanmentionsaboutpayingattentiontotheinjuriesinanopponent’ssecondary.Thatcanleadtoafantasyexplosion.MyapproachforchoosingpassersfortournamentsissignificantlydifferentfromhowIchooseaquarterbackforcashgames.Fortournaments,Ialmostexclusivelythinkintermsofstacksandbarelybotherwithrankingquarterbacksbythemselves.There’snopointingettingexcitedaboutapasserbeingaslightvalueifallofhispass-catchersareoverpriced.Ifthere’sanextremevalue,therecanbeexceptions.Anotherexceptionisifaquarterbackisareallystrongplaywithoutagoodstackpartner.

KeepinmindthatFanDuelgivespassersonepointper25yards,notonepointper20yards,likesomeothersites.Theyalsoonlydeductonepointperinterception.Thisgivesaslightbumptosloppyrushingquarterbackscomparedtosomeotherscoringsystems.

4.4.2.RunningBacks

JamesBrimacombe:OnethingIamalwayslookingforinchoosingarunningbackisopportunity,i.e.,thenumberoftouchesIbelievehewillreceive.Astheseasongoesonitisalsogoodtolookatmatchups:whichdefensesgiveupthemostrushingyards,touchdowns,andreceivingyardstorunningbacks?AlsoIthinkthePPRangleonFanDuelisoftenblownoutofproportionwithonly0.5pointsperreception.Touchdownsarestillkingwiththesix,andtryingtoidentifytherunningbackswhoareinthepositiontofindtheendzoneismoreimportantthanlookingatarunningbackwhomightcatchfourorfivepasses.JeffPasquino:Ialsolookforthebestmatchups.Iwantagoodbackgoingagainstadefensethatisbadagainsttherun.It’sespeciallyenticingwhentherunningback’soffensetypicallyfeaturesahighrun-passratio.Inthatsituation,Iseefactorsfavoringbothgoodproduction(higherceiling)andalotofvolumeintouches(highfloor).AfterthatIlookforcheapstarters.Ifthereisachangeonthedepthchart,signmeupforabackupwithtalentthatgetsthrustintoastartingrole,especiallyifthegamescriptfavorsrunningtheball.Expectedgamescriptisabigfactoraswell.Iftherunningback’steamisfavoredbyLasVegas,thatusuallyindicateshewillgetplentyofcarriesthroughoutthegameandhelpmilktheclockinthefinalquarter.Lastly,Ioftenlooktodoastackwithmydefense.IfIthinkateamwithastrongdefensewillpitchashutoutordominateanopponent,theirprimaryballcarrierwilllikelyhaveagreatdayaswell.

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PhilAlexander:ThereareseveralfactorsIlookatwhenselectingarunningback:1.Scoringpotential-especiallyonFanDuelwhereyou’renotgettingafullpointperreception,touchdownsarecritical.They’remuchtoughertopredictthancarriesandyardage,butredzoneandgoallinecarriesaredecentdatapointstodrawconclusionsfrom.BothcanbefoundbyusingtheFootballguysDataDominator.2.Workload-Obviously,themoreopportunitiestherunningbackhastoscorefantasypointsthebetter.Projectingopportunityisn’tjustamatteroflookingbackatpastgamelogs.Snapcounts(foundoneachteampageonFootballguys)areimportantandsoistheprojectedgamescript,whichbringsmeto…3.Vegaslines-Ideally,therunningback’steamwillbeaVegasfavorite(theheavierthebetter)withahighprojectedteampointtotal.Thisimpliedgamescriptnotonlysuggestshightouchdownpotential,butalsoincreasedworkloadfortherunningbackashisteamattemptstorunouttheclockinthesecondhalf.4.Home/RoadSplits-I’malwayswillingtobumparunningbackplayingathome,especiallyifthey’veshowndrastichome/roadsplitsinthepastand/ortheimpliedgamescriptisatleastneutral.I’vehadsuccesspickingcontrarianrunningbacksinGPPsprioritizingthisfactoroverdefensivematchupsincethecrowdislikelytofadeeventhebestrunningbacksifthey’regoingupagainstatopdefense.5.OpposingDefense-TheFootballguysGameLogDominatorisagreattooltoseehowdefenseshavefaredagainstopposingrunningbacksintheirpreviousgamesandspottrendsthatcanbeexploited.

4.4.3.WideReceivers

JeffPasquino:ChangesonanNFLteam’sdepthchart,whetherduetoinjuryorforotherreasons,oftenleadtogoodvalues.Ifateam’srunninggameisstruggling,thewidereceiversshouldgetmoretargetsastheteamleansmoreonitspassinggame.Thisisn’talwaysreflectedinFanDuel’ssalaries.Ialsosometimeslookforplayerswho’vebeenheavilytargetedinrecentweekseveniftheyfailedtoturnthosetargetsintosolidproduction.(Maybehejustmissedonalongtouchdownorhadabiggaincalledbackduetoapenalty.)Itmayjustbeamatteroftimebeforehegetsonthesamepagewithhisquarterback.Ontheotherhand,Ilooktoavoidmatchupsagainstshutdowncorners.Ialsotrytofadereceiverswithquestionablequarterbacksituations.

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JustinHowe:I’mlookingfordifferentcharacteristicsdependingonwhichsalarytierawidereceiverfallsinto.Amongthemostexpensivewidereceivers,Iwantguyswhoproduceconsistentlyanddon’thaveredflags(injury,cornerbackmatchup,gamescript,etc.)headingintothecurrentweek.

Inthenexttierdown,I’mwillingtoconsiderplayerswhomaynotbeconsistenteveryweek,buttheyhaveupsideinaproductivepassingoffense.MaybetheyaretheWR2ortherearequestionmarksaboutwheretheyfallinthepeckingorderontheirownteam.Butforthemostpart,thisisatierIavoid.I’dratherpayalittleextraandgetaclearWR1orpayalittlelessandfindbettervalue.Thethirdtierconsistsofboringguysnobodywants.Thisismyfavoritetiertodrawfrom:receiverswithlittleweeklyhypeorfanfare,butatrackrecordofsignificantproduction.Thewideoutsinthistiermaybeolderorperceivedasinjury-prone.

Thefourthtierconsistsoflotterytickets—typicallyguyswithhighupsidesbutlowerprobabilitiesofachievingthem.TheseguysarebettersuitedforGPPlineupsthanforcashgames.PhilAlexander:JeffandJustinhavecoveredalotofgoodground.OnethingJefftouchedonwasindividualWR-CBmatchups,whichIwanttoexpandonabit.WhilemostcasualDFSplayersknowafewcornerbacksbyreputationandunderstandtoavoidreceiversthey’rematchedupagainst,notnearlyasmanypeoplearefamiliarwithhowlesser-knowncornerbacksperform.Spottingbadcornerbacks(andfiguringoutwhichwidereceiversarelikelytolineupagainstthem)doesrequireabitmorehomeworkonyourpart.Therearemorestatisticstopourover,andadmittedlyalittleguessworkinvolvedwithexactlyhowoftenaparticularreceiverwilldrawaspecificcornerincoverage.Butthere’sanedgetobegainedinDFSbyunderstandingyourwidereceiver’sopponentonadeeperlevelthanjusthowmanyfantasypointstheteamdefenseallowsversustheposition.MarkWimer:ThefirstfactorIconsiderwhenlookingatprospectsformyDFSlineupsistheirmatchup.Whenconsideringwidereceivers,IwanttoselectplayersonteamsthatfacetheworstpassdefensesintheNFL.Afterdeterminingwhichteamshavedrawnasoftmatchup,Ithentakealookattheoffensivetendenciesofthevariousteamsinquestion.Anycircumstanceswhichwouldtendtoincreaseateam’srelianceonpassingwillelevatetheirreceivers’prospectsinmybook.Next,IcrosscheckmylistofwidereceiverprospectswithDavidDodds’,MaurileTremblay’sandSigmundBloom’sprojections.Ifthosethreealsoreallylikeone(ormore)ofthereceiversonmy

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preliminarylistoverothersthere,I’llfeaturethereceiver(s)thatwe’veallconvergedonmoreprominentlyinmylineupcombinations.IalsolookatBobHenry’sSleepersarticleatFootballguysforthecurrentweekasheoftenhighlightsoneortwoplayerswhomIskippedinmyfirststep.Itisalwaysvaluabletocrosscheckyouropinionsagainstotheranalystswhomyourespect.Finally,Ireviewtheinjuryinformationfortheteamsandplayersonmylistofprospects.Isakeypass-catchingtightendorrunningbackanticipatedtobeoutforthecurrentweek?Theabsenceofthoseothertargetscouldresultinmoretargetsfortheteam’swidereceivers.Detailedfactorsthatimpactwidereceivertargetscanbecomplicatedbutarewellworthyourtimetoevaluate.

4.4.4.TightEnds

JeffPasquino:Tightendsareatoughpositiontoselectingeneral.Quiteoften,IamgoingtostartwiththetopfivetosevenprojectedtightendseachweekandjustplaythebestvalueifIcanaffordhim.IfIcan’taffordatop-tiertightend,Ilookforacheaperoptionwithafavorableoffensivescheme,gameplan,andlikelygamescript.Whilethetoptwoorthreetightendseachweekarelikelytobeveryexpensive(andoftendeservedlyso),findingthatnexttierperformerwhocangiveyouabiggamecanprovidetwoadvantages—salarysavingsanduniqueness.Allofthatsaid,IwouldnotstrayawayfromthetoptierifIcanaffordoneofthem.Studtightendsareexpensiveforareason,astheyusuallyproduceconsistently.JustinHowe:Honestly,consideringthestateofthetightendpositionatthemoment,I’mgenerallyfinejustsortingallplayabletightendsbyredzone-targetshareandgoingfromthere.Afterall,we’renotnecessarilygunningfor8-90-2linesfromourtightends.Infact,inaGPPcontest,we’reonlyonesnapawayfromreachingourTEbenchmarksfortheweek—aTDhereorafluky40-yardcatchthere,andweprettyconfidentlyhaveasolidTEline.Forexample,onagivenweek,Igenerallywon’tconsiderthehighest-pricedtightends.Ialsowon’tconsideranyonewithlow-to-zeroredzoneopportunityorusagelately,regardlessofsalary.Withabout12-15realoptionsremaining,I’llcompareredzoneprojections,teamoffensiveperformance,andscoringlikelihood,andtoalesserextent,defensivematchups(LB,SS,andNBquality).Andguesswhat?Eachweek,Iseefourtosixmid-andlow-pricedTEoptionswithsimilarprojections—oratleastsimilarceilingsandfloors—totoptiertightends.SowhywouldIpayapremiumforabigname?I’lloftenjustrostertheguywiththebestcombinationofteamredzonepotentialandpersonalredzoneshare.

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Whenplayingacashgame,wherepredictabilityandconsistencyaresokey,I’malittlemorelikelytospendononeofthosetopsalaries.Idon’tdoitasarule,butI’mmoreopentotheoptionofrosteringahigh-pricedTEincashgames—providedheprojectswell,ofcourse.

PhilAlexander:Ifocusontargetsandtouchdowns.Tightendiseasilythemostvolatileoftheskillpositions—allbutaselectfewseesignificantlylessopportunitytoscorefantasypointsthanrunningbacksandwidereceivers.Thebestwaytomitigatethatvolatilityincashgamesistochasetargets.Sincetouchdownsaredifficulttopredict,you’llwanttolookatredzonetargetstogaugeweeklytouchdownupside—boththenumberofredzonetargetsthetightendusuallyreceives,aswellasthenumberofredzoneattemptstheopposingdefenseusuallysurrenders.UsingtheFootballguysDataDominatortochecktargetsfrominsidethe10-yardlinehelpstoo.

Incashgames,I’mmorelikelytopayupforthemorepredictablepositionsthatofferthehighestfloors(QBandRB)whichmeansIrarelyendupwithaveryexpensivetightend(unlessIcanfindenoughvalueattheotherpositionstoallowforit).JohnMamula:Overthepastfewseasons,thetightendpositionhasbeenmoredifficulttopredictcomparedtotheotherskillpositions.ThisisduetothelackofconsistencyattheTEposition.ForFanDuelcashgames,lastseason,sortoftheoppositeofPhil,Ichosetopayupforreliablepointsandconsistentproduction.Inhead-to-headcashgames,consistentproductionwillgiveyouasignificantadvantageoveropponentswhotrytosaveattheTEposition.DanHindery:WhileIagreewithJohnonthebenefitsofrosteringtoptiertightendsincashgames,Idon’tusuallyrosterthemostexpensivetightendsinGPPs.Theirownershipratestendtobetoohigh.InGPPs,mystrategyistotargetaTEwithapriceof$6,000orless(preferablyascloseto$5,000aspossible)withagoodmatchupandasolidchanceofscoringatouchdown.Withthelower-pricedoptions,itismucheasiertohitthe3xmultipletargetrange.Forexample,a$5,000TEneedstoputtogetheronlya5-65-1linetoscore15points,whichwouldbeconsideredastrongreturnoninvestmentfortheTEpositioninaGPP.Thehighest-pricedTEsusuallyneedeithermultipleTDsorhugeyardagetotals(thatarerarefromtheTEposition)toprovidethe2.5-3xreturnthatyouarelookingfor.AnothermoveworthconsideringinGPPsisstackingyourQBwithhisprimaryTEregardlessofwhetheryouarealsostackingoneoftheWRs.ThepathtoabigGPPpaydayalmostinvariablyrequiresahugeperformancefromyourQBandaminimumofthreepassingTDs.IfyouassumethenthatyourQBofchoicewillthrowthreeormoreTDs,thenit’salsoaprettygoodbetthatyourTEgetsasolidsliceofthatproductionandhasastrongchanceoffindingtheendzone.

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AustinLee:Withallthistalkofredzoneefficiency,whichIagreeiscriticalfortightends,itwouldbeworthwhiletoconsiderOpportunityAdjustedTDsasasuperiormetric.MikeClayofESPNintroduceditafewyearsago,andit’sfantastic.ItcanbeusedtobetterpredictTD-scoringregressionandnormalizesbetterthanthearbitrary20-yardcutoffforredzonedata.MarkWimer:Myfirsttouchstonewhencreatingalistofprospectsattightendistheweeklymatchups.ThenextstopformeisreviewingMattBitonti’sOffensiveLineNotes.Iftherehasbeenarashofrecentinjuriesalongtheoffensiveline,atightendisoftenrequiredtostayinandhelptheremixedoffensivelinepass-blockformostofthesubsequentgame(orgames,dependingonhowthenewlineconfigurationperforms).Sometightendsaremostlypass-catchers,whileothershaveahybridrole,whichmeansitpaystomonitortherelativehealthandeffectivenessoftheoffensivelinethatthetightendlinesupnexttofromweektoweek.IalsoconsultBobHenry’sSleeperarticleeachweekwhenwinnowingmylistoftightendprospectsonanygivenweek.Bobisanoutstandingevaluatoroffantasyproductionacrossallpositions.ThenextstopisDavidDodd’s,MaurileTremblay’sandSigmundBloom’sprojections.Wheremylistofbestprospectsconvergeswiththeiropinions,IselectthoseplayerstofeaturemoreprominentlyinmyweeklyDFScombinations.AustinLee:Mark,greatpointaboutoffensivelineinjuriesoftenreducingthenumberofpassingroutesrunbyblockingtightends.Similarly,tightendswillsometimesrunfewerrouteswhenplayingagainstanopponentwithastrongpassrushorifahealthyoffensivelinehasbeenstrugglingthepastcoupleofgames.Ifadefensehasweakdeepcoverage,thetightendmightblockmoreoftentobuyaquarterbacktimetoexploitthisweaknessaspartofateam’soffensivegameplanthatweek.Sometimesyouhavetoreallydigdeeplyintothematchuptopredicthowoftenablockingtightendwillbeusedasapass-catcher.

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4.5.Projections

ByMaurileTremblayAfewpeoplereadingthisbookwilldotheirownprojectionseachweek.Mostwillnot.ThissectionisintendedtosetforththebasicmethodthatweatFootballguysusetodoprojectionsfortworeasons:(a)wehopeitwillgiveyouconfidencethatwe'reconsideringtherightsortsofinputs;and(b)ifyoudecidetouseourprojectionsasastartingpointbutadjustthemtoputyourownstamponthings,itwillhelpyoutoknowhowourprojectionsweregenerated(sothatyourvariationsfromthemcanavoidaccidentallydouble-countingcertainfactors,forexample).

4.5.1.Usingpointspreadsandover/unders

Inlastseason'sSuperBowl,thePantherswerefavoredby4.5points,andtheover/underwas45.5points.ThisgivesusanimpliedscoreofPanthers25,Broncos20.5.Obviously,thatexactscoreisimpossible,butyoucanthinkofitasthePanthersbeingaboutaslikelytoscoremorethan25pointsastheyaretoscorefewerthan25points,andtheBroncosbeingslightlymorelikelytoscoremorethan20pointsthantheyaretoscorefewerthan20points.Howaccurateisthisestimate?Arebetterestimatespossible?Sincesomesportsbettorsplaywithapositiveexpectation,itispossibletoprojectNFLscoresmoreaccuratelythanthesportsbooksdo.Butit’snoteasy.It’sprettymuchafull-timejobinitself.Ratherthanspending40hoursaweektryingtobe5%moreaccuratethansportsbooksatprojectingNFLscores,wethinkit’sbettertospendfiveminuteslookinguppointspreadsandover/undersfromthebooks,freeingupmoretimeforustospendonindividualplayerprojections.

Usingthepointspreadsandover/undersfromthesportsbooksallowsustoprojectthetotalnumberofpointsateamwillscoreinitsupcominggame,andalsohelpsusprojectthenumberofoffensiveplaysitwillrun,anditsrun-passratio.Projectingthetotalnumberofpointsateamwillscore

alsogreatlyhelpsusinestimatingthenumberofoffensivetouchdownsitwillscore,aswellasthenumberoffieldgoalsandextrapointsitwillgetfromitskicker.

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4.5.2.Projectingoffensiveplaysandrun-passratios

Estimatingthenumberofoffensiveplaysateamwillruninagivengameisdifficult.Butit’simportant,becausethemoreplaysitruns,themoreyardsitsplayerswillaccumulate,andprojectingyardsisessentialtoprojectingfantasypoints.Ingeneral,thenumberofoffensiveplaysateamrunsispositivelycorrelatedwiththenumberofpointsitisexpectedtoscore,andthemarginofvictoryitisexpectedtowinby.Wecanrunaregressionanalysistoquantifytheleague-widerelationshipbetweenthosevariablesandthenusethepointspreadandover/undertoprojecttheexpectednumberofoffensiveplaysateamwillruninitsupcominggame—butthatisactuallynotveryhelpful.Theproblemisthateveryteamisquitedifferent.Let’sgobacktothePanthersinlastyear’sSuperBowl—theywereexpectedtoscore25pointsandwinby4.5points.Basedonleague-wideaverages,ateamthatisexpectedtoscore25pointsandwinby4.5willrun,onaverage,about63offensiveplays.(Forourpurposes,ateam’soffensiveplaysconsistofpassattemptsplusrushattempts;theydonotincludesacks.Sackswouldnormallybeconsideredoffensiveplays,ofcourse,butforthenarrowpurposeofprojectingindividualoffensivestatistics,theyarenotpartofouruniverse.)Intermsofoffensiveplaysrunpergame,ifwecontrolforpointsscoredandmarginofvictory,thePanthersareveryslightlyaboveaverage,andwecanimproveourprojectionsifwetakethatintoaccount.Ratherthanusingleague-widenumbersasthebasisforourregressionanalysis,wecandobetterbyevaluatingeachteam’spropensitiesindividually.Iuse32differentformulasforthe32differentteams—partiallybasedonaregressionanalysisusingpointsandmarginofvictory,andpartiallybasedonsomeotherfactors.Itwouldbepointlessformetolistthe32formulasrightnow,becausetheywillchangeeachweek.HeadingintoWeek1ofthe2016season,theywillbebasedonstatsfrom2015.Duringthenextfourweeksofthe2016season,theywillbebasedonacombinationofstatsfrom2015and2016.Andafterthat,theywillbebasedstrictlyonnumbersfrom2016.ButIwillbere-runningandrevisingtheformulaseachweekoftheregularseason,soanyformulasIlistherewouldbeobsoletebyWeek2.AndaswithalloftheprojectionsIdothatarebasedstrictlyonstats,theresultingnumbersareadefaultstartingplaceonly.Iwilladjustthembyhandiftherearegoodreasonsto.Forexample,teamsliketheEagles,Browns,Titans,49ers,andDolphins,amongothers,mayrunsubstantiallydifferentoffensivesystemsin2016,and2015statisticsfromthoseteamsmayproveuseless.SoImayprojectthenumberofoffensiveplaysandrun-passratiosforthoseteamssomewhatfromthegut,ratherthanusingpreviousstats,forthefirstmonthofthe2016NFLseason.WhiletheaverageNFLteamexpectedtoscore25pointsandwinby4.5mightrun63offensiveplays,myformulaforthe2015Pantherssaystheyshouldbeexpectedtorun64offensiveplays

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underthosecircumstances,onlyaslightdifference.Withotherteams,however,thedifferencecouldhavebeenmuchmorepronounced.Ifthe2015Texansand2015Ramswereeachexpectedtoscore25pointsandwinby4.5,Iwouldprojectthoseteamstorun69offensiveplaysand55offensiveplays,respectively—sotherecanbehugevarianceamongdifferentNFLteamseveninsimilargamesituations.Thesameistrueforrun-passratios.Allteamsrunmoreofteningamesthattheywinbyalotthaningamesthattheylosebyalot.Marginofvictoryispositivelycorrelatedwithrun-passratio.Buttherelationshipbetweenthosevariables,aswellasthebaselinerun-passratio,isdifferentforeachNFLteam.Insteadofusingleague-widestatisticstotrytopredictrun-passratiobasedonprojectedmarginofvictory,Iuse32differentformulasforthe32differentteams—andtheformulaschangeeachweekbasedonthemostrecentlyavailabledata.Projectingnumberofoffensiveplaysandrun-passratioforeachteamintheirupcominggamesgivesusthetotalnumberofrushattemptsandthetotalnumberofpassattemptsthattheywillbeexpectedtoperform.Thenextstepistodistributetheteam’srushesandtargetstoindividualrunnersandreceivers.

4.5.3.Estimatingrushesandtargetsforeachoffensiveplayer

Thisisthemostsubjectivepartofmyprocessofdoingprojections.Thereisnowaytocomeupwithautomateddefaultestimatesforhowtherushesandtargetswillbedistributedtoindividualplayersonagiventeaminagivenweek.Itmustbedonebyhand.Foreachteam,Istartbylookingatthegamelogsfortheseason-to-date.Somepatternswillappearobvious.ItmightbethatthedistributionofcarriesamongRBslooksprettymuchthesamefromweektoweek—meaningthattherehavebeennoinjuriesatthepositionsofar,andnomajorchangesinthedepthchartorinthewaythattheindividualplayersareusedintherunninggame.Thatmakesprojectionsfairlyeasy—myprojectionsforthecurrentweekcansimplyreflectthepercentageofcarrieseachrunningbackhasgottensofarontheseason.Well,notsofast.Idohavetocheckthenewsforthatteamfirsttoseewhetheranyinjuriesweresufferedinthemostrecentgame.Butassumingthereweren’tany,distributingthisweek’srushingattemptstotheindividualrunningbacks(andquarterbacksandwidereceivers,totheextentapplicable)willbefairlyeasy.Butitmightbethatthedistributionofcarriesamongrunningbackshasnotbeensimilareachweeksofar.ThefeaturedbackmighthavegivenwaytoanRBBCsituationinrecentweeks.Oroneoftherunningbacksmayhavebeeninjuredandanotherhasreceivedmorecarriesinhisplace.Inthesesituations,Itrytofigureoutwhichpreviousweeks,ifany,thecurrentweekwillbemostsimilarto—andIusethoseweeksasmyguide.Sometimes,ifamajorinjuryjustoccurredattheendofthemostrecentgame,therewillbenopreviousweektoserveasareliableguide,andI’llhavetowingitabitbasedonmygut—andbasedonnewsreports,ofcourse.

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IdistributetargetstoreceiversusingthesameprocessIusetodistributecarriestorunners.Ilookatgamelogsfrompreviousweeksandlookatnewsreportstotrytofigureoutwhichpreviousweeksaremostsimilartothecurrentweekintermsofplayerusage.Ifigureoutwhatshareofthetargetswillgotowhichposition,andtowhichindividualplayerswithineachposition,basedonasubjectivecombinationofpreviouspatterns,trends,newsreports,andsoon.Thisisthepartofdoingprojectionsthatinvolvesthemostartandtheleastscience,butitisalsothesinglemostimportantpartofdoingprojections.Ifyoulookatanynumberofreasonablesetsofprojectionsforagiventeaminagivenweek,theywillprobablybewithin20%ofeachother—andoftenmuchcloserthanthat—intermsoftotaloffensiveplaysrun,totaloffensivetouchdowns,yardspercarryforanygivenrunner,yardsperreceptionforanygivenreceiver,andprettymucheveryothercomponentoftheprojectionsexceptforthenumberofcarriesorthenumberoftargets(orreceptions)foragivenplayer.Itisquitecommonforprojectionsfromrespectedsourcestodifferbymorethan20%inthenumberofcarriesthatFrankGoreisexpectedtoget,orthenumberofreceptionsthatJordanMatthewsisexpectedtoget,forexample.Becausethedistributionofrushesandtargetsisthemostvariableaspectofdecentprojections,itisalsoprimarilywhatseparatesverygoodprojectionsfromjustso-soprojections.

4.5.4.Estimatingefficiencystatsforindividualplayers

Efficiencystatsarethingslikeyardsperrush,touchdownsperrush,completionsperattempt,receptionspertarget,touchdownsperreception,etc.Theyareameasureofhoweffectiveaplayerisataccumulatingfantasypointsgiventhenumberofopportunitieshegets.BecausedifferentprojectionsforLeSeanMcCoy’syardspercarrywillnotvarynearlyasmuchasprojectionsforthenumberofcarrieshe’llget,theformerarenotasimportantasthelatter—buttheyarestillimportant.IfMcCoyisexpectedtocarrytheball20times,thedifferencebetweenprojecting4.4yardspercarryand3.9yardspercarryisafullfantasypoint,whichisoftenalargeenoughdifferencetoaffectwhetherhe’sinyourlineupornot.Soit’simportanttobeasaccurateaspossible.IprojectallefficiencystatsforeachplayerusingBayesianinferenceanalysis.That’saslightlyfancywayofsayingthatItakeintoaccounttheirefficiencysofarintheircareers,especiallyinthecurrentseason,andregressittowardtheNFLmeandependingonhowextremelyithasdivergedfromthemeansofar,andonthenumberofopportunitiestheplayerhashadsofar.Ifaplayerhasaveraged5.0yardspercarryon200attempts,thatismuchmoreimpressivethanaveraging5.0yardspercarryon20attempts.Thefirstguy,Imightprojecttorushfor4.6yardspercarryagainstanaveragedefensenextweek,whilethesecondImightprojecttorushfor4.2yardspercarry.Theyhavebothlikelyoutperformedtheirtruelong-termaverageintheirlimitednumberofcarriessofar,butthefirstguygetsamuchgreaterbenefitofthedoubtbecausehe’sbeendoingitlonger.

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IwillnotgointothedetailsofBayes’Theorembutinverybroadterms,eachplayerbeginstheseasonwithanexpectedyards-per-carrybasedonhiscareertodate.Thisexpectationisupdatedeachweekbasedontheresultsfromthemostrecentgameinawaythatappropriatelytakesintoaccountthecurrentseason’sstats,thedistributionoflong-termYPCstatsofplayersathispositiongenerally,andthestandarddeviationinyardspercarrygenerally.Idothesamewithallefficiencystatsthatarecomponentsofaplayer’sfantasyprojections:completionpercentage,yardspercompletion,touchdownspercompletion,interceptionsperpassattempt,yardsperrush,touchdownsperrush,receptionspertarget,yardsperreception,andtouchdownsperreception.Idothiseachweekforeachefficiencystatforeachplayerindividually—butittakesonlyafewsecondsbecauseit’sallautomated.Thankgoodnessforcomputers.

4.5.5.Consideringstrengthofopponent

TheefficiencystatsIgetfromapplyingBayes’Theoremaregenericstatsagainstanaverageopponent.ButLeSeanMcCoywillnotfaceanaverageopponentthisweek:Hewillfaceaspecificopponentthatallowsaspecificnumberofyardspercarryaboveorbelowtheleagueaverage.Anydecentsetofprojectionsmusttakethisintoaccount.IftheBroncosaregivingupnearlyafullyardlessperrushthantheNFLaverage—astheydidin2015—ourprojectionforLeSeanMcCoyagainsttheBroncos’defensemustbeadjusteddownward.Butaswithoffensiveefficiencystats,ateam’sdefensiveefficiencystatsmustbeappropriatelyregressedtotheNFLmeanaswell.IftheBroncoshavegivenup3.2yardspercarryovertheirfirst10games,thatdoesn’tmeantheyarelikelytogiveuponly3.2yardspercarryindefinitely.It’smorelikelythatthey’vebeenperformingbetterthantheirownlong-termaveragethanitisthatthey’vebeenperformingworsethantheirownlong-termaverage—meaningthattheirprojectedlong-termaveragewillbeabitabove3.2yardspercarry.(Itwillbeverymuchabove3.2yardspercarryifthey’vebeendoingitforonlythreegamesinsteadof10.)UsingthesameprocessofBayesianupdatingforteamdefensesthatIusedforindividualoffensiveplayers,Iderivestrength-of-defensenumbers(separatelyforrushingandpassing)thatI’llusetoadjustprojectionsfortheoffensiveplayersfacingthem.

4.5.6.Distributingtouchdowns

Distributingtouchdownsamongoffensiveplayersisamulti-stepprocess.First,usingtheprojectednumberofteampointsfromthepointspreadandover/under,wemustdividethosepointsinto(a)offensivetouchdowns,(b)fieldgoalsandextrapointsbythekicker,and(c)returntouchdownsbythedefenseandspecialteams.TheprocessIuseistofirstsubtractouttheexpectedpointsfromreturntouchdowns(usuallyjustundertwopointspergame,thoughitvariesabitbasedonteam,weather,etc.),andthensubtractoutthepointsexpectedfromthekicker(usuallyabout35%oftheremainingpoints,thoughitvariesabitbasedonteam,weather,etc.).What’sleftispointsexpectedfromoffensivetouchdowns.

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That’satop-downprojectionbasedoninfofromsportsbooks.I’vealsogotabottom-upprojectionbasedonmyindividualprojections.If,foreachplayer,Imultiplyhisexpectedrushesandhisexpectedreceptionsbyhisexpectedtouchdowns-per-rushandtouchdowns-per-reception,respectively,andsumtheresults,that’sanotherwayofprojectingtotaloffensivetouchdownsbytheteam.Iplacemorestockinthefirst(top-down)projectionthaninthesecond(bottom-up)projectioninthiscase.SoifI’mprojecting2.3touchdownsbasedonthefirstmethod,and2.1touchdownsbasedonthesecondmethod,Iwillmultiplyeachplayer’stouchdown-basedefficiencystatsby2.3/2.1sothattheytotal2.3touchdowns.

4.5.7.Aligningpassingandreceivingstats

Myquarterbackprojectionsarebasedonthenumberofpassattemptsthequarterbackislikelytothrow,multipliedbyhisper-attemptefficiencystats.Myreceivingstatsforrunningbacks,widereceiversandtightendsarebasedonthenumberoftargetseachplayerislikelytoreceivemultipliedbyhisper-targetefficiencystats.Whatifthepassingprojectionsandreceivingprojectionsadduptodifferentnumbers?Ifaquarterbackisexpectedtocomplete25of39passattemptsfor263yardsand1.7touchdowns,buthisreceiversasagroupareprojectedtocatch24of39passattemptsfor251yardsand1.6touchdowns,thensomethingisn’tquiteright.Inthissituation,Iadjustthequarterback’sprojectionsineachcategory(completionpercentage,yardspercompletion,touchdownspercompletion)andthereceivers’projectionsineachcategory(receptionspertarget,yardsperreception,touchdownsperreception)sothat,whensummedbyweight,theymeethalfwayinthemiddle.Thismeansthatwhenabackupquarterbackisprojectedtostart,andheislessefficientthanthestarter,thereceivers’numberswillbereduced.Likewise,whenastartingwidereceiverisoutandalesserbackuptakeshisplace,thequarterback’snumberswillbeadjusteddownwardaswell.Thisisasitshouldbe.

4.5.8.Puttingitalltogether

OnceI’vegonethrougheachofthestepsoutlinedhere,I’vegotprojections.I’vegotprojectionsineachstatisticalcategoryforeachoffensiveplayer(andforkickers,too),andthoseprojectionscanbeconvertedintoprojectedpointsinagivenDFShostsite’sscoringsystem.Thelaststepistoordertheplayersateachpositionbasedontheirfantasypointsandmakesuretherankingsmakesense.WhenIamprojectingLeSeanMcCoy’sfantasypoints,theprocessdoesnotinvolveMarkIngram’sfantasyprospectsatall,orviceversa.IfI’vedoneagoodenoughjobofeachplayer’sprojectionsindividually,theresultinglistofrankingsfortheweekshouldbesensible,andshouldlargelyaccordwithmygutfeelings.

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Butsometimestheydon’t.SometimesIgetfinishedwithmyprojections,lookattheresultinglistofrankings,andwonderhowIngramcanberankedaheadofMcCoy.Itforcesmetoretracemystepsandlookforanassumptionthatshouldbereconsidered.Sometimestheprocessofretracingmystepsleadsmetoconfirmthatmyprojections,onfurtherreflection,makedecentsenseeventhoughmyinitialgutreactiondisagreed.Butsometimesitleadsmetochangesomeofmyassumptions,recalculatethings,andgenerateanewsetofrankingsthatisn’tsoloopy.Thisprocessisiteratedallweek,asIcontinuetomakeadjustmentsupthroughSundaymorning.

AtFootballguys,wetaketheaccuracyofourprojectionsveryseriously.Ispendbetween15and20hoursaweekmodelingthenumbersthatweuseatFootballguys.MyprocessdiffersslightlyfromMaurile'sonthefrontend(tocreategamescripts),butisnearlyidenticalonthebackend.Therearenoshort-cuts.Ittakesgreatprojectionstodoeverythingwellinfantasyfootball(includingbeatingthedailygames).—DavidDodds

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4.6.H-Value

ByDanHinderyH-ValueisameasureofhowmuchvalueaplayercontributestohisDFSrosterbasedonhissalaryandprojectedpoints.ItwasdevelopedcollaborativelybytheFootballguysstaff,andisbuiltintotheInteractiveDailyChartsavailableeachweekatFootballguys.com.

4.6.1.WhyisH-Valuebetterthantraditionalvaluemeasures?

EvenaDFSnovicewillimmediatelyrealizethatplayersprojectedtoscorealotofpointsmakedecentDFSoptions.Pointsaregood,andmorepointsarebetter.Thatsamenovicewillquicklylearn,however,thathecannotfillhisDFSrosterwiththeplayersprojectedtoscorethemostpointsateachposition.Thehighest-scoringplayersarealsousuallyamongthemostexpensiveplayers,andFanDuel's$60,000salarycapisasignificantconstraint.Justasmorepointsarebetterthanfewerpoints,alowersalaryisbetterthanahighersalary.Toaccountforbothpointsandsalaryusingasinglemetric,manyDFSplayersdividepointsbysalarytocalculatethemostcommonmeasureofvalue:pointsperdollar.Thebenefitofusingpointsperdollarasameasureofvalueisthatit'sverysimpletocalculate.Thedrawback,however,isthatitskewstooheavilytowardstheleastexpensiveoptions.Whyisthis?Everyweektherewillbeplayersneartheminimumsalaryof$4,500whowillbeprojectedtoscore10ormorepoints.Meanwhile,playerswithsalariesnear$9,000willveryrarelybeprojectedtoscore20ormorepoints.Intermsofpointsperdollar,thelessexpensiveplayershaveaclearadvantage.AlistofthetopFanDuelplaysoftheweekbasedontraditionalvaluemeasureswillconsistlargelyofplayerspricedunder$6,000,whichisnotveryhelpfulinassemblingalineupthatmaximizestotalpoints.Touseananalogy,imaginethatyouareaCstudentinbiology.Whatismorelikelytohelpyouearnahighergrade:anAonaquizthataccountsfor10%ofyourfinalgradeoraB+onthefinalexamthataccountsfor40%ofyourfinalgrade?Ifyouassumethattherestofyourgradesarenearaverage,thentheB+onthefinalexamwillactuallyleadtoahigheroverallgradethantheAonthequiz.Similarly,ahigh-pricedplayerwithahighmultipleofpointsperdollarwillbemorehelpfultoyourchancesofwinningthanalower-pricedplayerwiththesamemultiple.

4.6.2.HowisH-Valuecalculated?

H-Valueisequaltoprojectedpointsraisedtothesquarerootofthree,dividedbysalaryandthenmultipliedby2,000.Itsoundsabitfancierthanitreallyis,butwecollaboratedandexperimentedtocomeupwithaformulawefeltbestidentifiedthemostvaluableplayersandbestoptionseachweek.Theidea

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behindthecalculationisthatpointsperdollarputsalittletoomuchemphasisonthe“perdollar”partandnotenoughonthe“points”part.Sowetriedsquaringpoints,whichwasbetter,butputalittletoomuchemphasisonpoints.Raisingtoapowerof3/2wentabittoofarbackintheotherdirection.Throughaprocessoftrialanderror,wefiguredoutthatraisingtoapowerofaround1.7to1.75gavethemostaccuraterankings.Thesquarerootofthree(~1.73)isintherightrangeandseemsmoreelegantthanjustsaying“1.73,”sothat’stheformula.Afterdividingbysalary,wecanmultiplyordividebyanyconstantwewant,andthevalueswillstayproportionaltooneanother.Sowemultiplyby2,000justtogetnumbersthatareeasiertoread—e.g.,24.3ratherthan0.01215.TheformulaworkswellandgivesDFSplayersagreatideaofwhichplayersaremostlikelytobestrongplaysinagivenweek.SimplysortingtheFootballguysprojectionsbyH-Valueforquarterbacks,forexample,andlookingatthetopfiveplayersprovidesagreatlistforthefocusofyourweeklyresearchbeforechoosingafewofthemtofeatureinyourlineups.Arealexamplepickedatrandomfromthe2014seasonillustratesthestrengthofH-Valueasawaytoranktheoveralltopplaysateachposition.Let’slookattheprojectionsgoingintoWeek13oftheseasonandthetopfiveQBsasrankedbythetwomostcommonmeasures:

Rank Points Pointsperdollar1 AndrewLuck RyanFitzpatrick2 AaronRodgers GenoSmith3 PeytonManning DrewStanton4 BenRoethlisberger BenRoethlisberger5 TomBrady BlakeBortles

ThetopfiveQBsrankedbyprojectedpointsyieldedfivehigh-pricedplayerswithanaveragesalaryof$9,620.That'salottopayforaquarterback,andnotallofthoseguysweregoodvalues.Meanwhile,thetopfiveQBsbasedonpointsperdollaryieldedagroupofverylow-pricedoptionswithanaveragepriceof$6,200.Thislist,however,wasmostlyfilledwithbargain-basementQBswhoweren'tprojectedtoscoremanypoints.Arosterfullofsuchplayerswouldbefeeble.NeitherofthesemeasuresusedalonegaveaverygoodideaofthetopDFSoptions.Let’slookattheWeek13top5QBsrankedbyH-Value:Player H-ValueRank PointsRank ValueRank FinalScoringLineBenRoethlisberger 1 4 4 435PassYards,2PassTDsAndrewLuck 2 1 10 370PassYards,5PassTDsRyanFitzpatrick 3 23 1 358PassYds,6PassTDsDrewStanton 4 11 3 294PassYds,1PassTDAaronRodgers 5 2 14 368PassYds,2PassTDs

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Ifyoulookedonlyatthehighest-projectedlist,you'dhavemissedoutonRyanFitzpatrick,whowasthe#1fantasyQBthatweek.Ifyou'dlookedonlyatthebest-valuelist,you'dhavemissedoutonAndrewLuck,whowasthe#2fantasyQBthatweek.H-valuerecognizesthemeritsofbothlists,andcombinestheminawaythattakesbothpointsandvalueintoaccount.Intheaboveexample,BenRoethlisbergerwastheonlyquarterbacktoappearonbothlists,andhewasthe#1playerasrankedbyH-value.(HealsoledtheNFLinpassingyardsthatweek.)

4.6.3.HowshouldH-Valuebeused?

EveryoneusestheFootballguysstaffprojectionsalittledifferentlyandaddstheirownresearchtotheoverallpuzzleofchoosingalineup.OnegreatwaytoleveragethefantasticprojectionsofDavidDodds,MaurileTremblay,andSigmundBloomistousethemasatooltogreatlylimitthepotentialplayerpooleachweek.Thissmallerplayerpoolprovidesanefficientstartingpointforweeklyresearch.MostDFSplayerssimplydon'thavethetimetoconductexhaustiveresearchofeverymatchupforeveryplayerandeveryteam.Butifyoucanquicklydeterminethe20to25bestplayseachweekbylookingatthelistofplayerswiththehighestH-values,itismucheasiertoresearchjustthoseplayers’specificmatchupsinmoredepth.Furtherresearchallowsyoutonarrowdownyourlisttofiveortenplayerswhowillconstituteyourtopplaysoftheweek.Thoseplayersbecometheprimarybuildingblocksforconstructingweeklycash-gameandtournamentlineups.ThetopoftheH-valuerankingsalsogivesfantasyownersagoodideaofwhatpricerangetherealvalueplayswilllieinthatweek.Someweeks,thevaluewillbeontheextremeendsofthespectrum,withsomehigh-pricedplayersexpectedtoposthugefantasynumbersandasmatteringoflow-pricedplayersprovidingenoughvaluetosuccessfullyfillouttherestoftheroster.Otherweeks,amorebalancedapproachwillbeidealiftheleadersinH-valueareplayersclosertothemiddleofthepricerange,providingbothgreatvalueandhighprojectedpointtotals.

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4.7.UsingtheInteractiveValueCharts

ByMaurileTremblayInteractiveValueChartsarepublishedeachweekduringtheNFLseasonatFootballguys.com.AswecoveredinSection2,DFScontestscanbelooselydividedintocashgamesandtournaments.Cashgamescomprisecontestsinwhichroughlyhalfofthefieldfinishesinthemoney.Tournamentscomprisecontestsinwhichamuchsmallerpercentageofthefield—generallybetween10%and20%—finishinthemoney.Anylineupiscapableofscoringawiderangeofpoints.Thetopendofthatrangeisoftenreferredtoastheceiling,whilethebottomendisreferredtoasthefloor.Yourprimaryconcernsinputtingtogetheratournamentlineuporacash-gamelineupare:

(a)toselectplayerswhopresentgreatvalueasmeasuredbyexpectedpointsperdollar;and

(b)tospendmostorallofthesalarycap.

Followthoserules,andyourteamwillbeexpectedtoscorealotofpoints,whichishowyouwinbothcashgamesandtournaments.Therearesomedifferencesbetweenlineupsbestsuitedforcashgamesandthosebestsuitedfortournaments,however.AswasdiscussedindetailinSection3,thebasicideaisthatincashgamesyouaremoreconcernedwithachievingahighfloor,whileintournamentsyouaremoreconcernedwithachievingahighceiling.Ingeneral,alineupexpectedtoscoresignificantlymorepointsthanacompetinglineupwillhaveboththehigherfloorandthehigherceiling,soputtingtogetheralineupwithanabove-averageexpectedscoreisthefirstorderofbusinessineithertypeofcontest.Wewillwanttoconcentrateonvalueratherthanrawpoints,sothefirststepistoclickon“Value”(or“H-Value"—seetheimmediatelyprecedingsection)fromamongtheoptionsabovethechartinblue.Thenwe’llsorttheplayerpoolfromhighestvaluetolowestusingwhicheversetofprojectionsyouprefer.Todoso,clickontheappropriateinitialsinthetableheader.(MT=MaurileTremblay;DD=DavidDodds;SB=SigmundBloom.)Clickonthevariouspositionaltabsandlookforplayersnearthetopofthelistwhostandoutashavinglargesalaries.Thosearetheplayerswe’remostinterestedinbecausethey’llhelpusachievebothofourgoalsatonce—findinggreatvaluesandusingupourcapspace.

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Onceyou’veinsertedafewsuchplayersintoyourlineup,lettheappfillintheremainingspots.Itssuggestionswillmaximizetotalexpectedpoints,butattimesyouwon’tbehappywithitschoicesforwhateverreason.Removeanyplayersyou’renotcomfortablewith,excludethemfromconsideration(byclickingonthegreen“o”nexttotheirnamesintheplayerpool),andlettheappdoitsthingagain.Repeatuntilyou’rehappywiththeresults.Ifyouareenteringmultiplecontests,youwilllikelywanttodiversifyyourlineupsratherthanchoosingthesameplayersoverandoveragain.ThemultiplesetsofprojectionsweofferatFootballguyscomeinhandyhere.Youmay,forexample,wanttochoosesomerunningbacksbasedonmyprojections,chooseaquarterbackbasedonDavidDodds’projections,andthenfillintheremainingspotsusingSigmundBloom’sprojections.Tofindasecondlineupwithdifferentplayers,selectaquarterbackusingSigmund’sprojections,somewidereceiversusingtheaverageprojections,thenfillintheremainingspotsusingDavid’sprojections.Foryournextlineup,tryadifferentcombination.

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5.MoneyTalk

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5.1.SiteCommissions(akaRake)

ByDanHinderyThestandardcommissionatFanDuelis10%forHead-To-Headcontestswithentryfeesof$50orlower.Forexample,ina$50Head-To-Headmatchup,thewinnerreceives$90withacommissionof$10(10%).Asentryfeesincrease,FanDuelreducesthepercentageofthecommission.Forexample,ina$109Head-To-Heador50/50contest,thewinnerreceives$200andthecommissionis$18(8.3%).A$270Head-To-Headpaysout$500withacommissionof$40(7.4%).Atthe$1,065entrylevel,thecommissiondecreasesto6.1%,andatthe$5,300entryfeelevel,thecommissionisonly5.7%.ThestandardcommissionatFanDuelforlargeguaranteed50/50contestswithentryfeesof$25orlessis12.0%.A$10entryfee50/50with2,840entriespaysout$25,000withacommissionof$3,400(12.0%).Unguaranteed50/50contestsonFanDuelhavethesamepayoutstructureasHead-To-Headcontestswiththestandardrateof10%commissiononsmallerentryfeecontestsanddecreasingpercentagesastheentryfeerises.ThecommissioninguaranteedprizepoolcontestsonFanDuelalsodecreasesastheentryfeeincreases.ThestandardcommissiononGPPswithentryfeesof$25orlessis13.0%.Forexample,a$25entryfeecontestwith12,643entriespaysout$275,000withacommissionof$41,075(13.0%).InaGPPwithanentryfeeof$200with694entriesandapayoutof$125,000,thecommissiondecreasesto9.9%.Ofcourse,iftheseGPPcontestsdonotreachthemaximumnumberofentries,theresultisalowercommission.Iffewenoughenter,overlaysarepossible(whichisessentiallyanegativecommission).

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5.2.Overlays

ByJustinBonnemaAnoverlay,asitpertainstoDFS,occurswhenasitehostsacontestwithaguaranteedprizepool(GPP)butfailstofillthatcontestwithenoughentrantstocoveritscost.Forexample,ifatournamenthasabuy-inof$5andguaranteesapayoutof$5,000,itneedsatleast1,000entriestobreakeven.Ifthesitefallsshortofthatexpectation,thecontestresultsinanoverlay.Asplayers,wewanttotargetthesesituationssince,withanoverlay,evenamerelyaverageplayerwillhaveapositiveexpectation.How,when,andwheretofindtheseopportunitiesisamatterofcontestscouting.Contestscouting,whenpartofyourSundaymorningroutine,caneasilygeneratelow-riskinvestments.Theprocessissimple:GototheFanDuellobby,selectTournaments,andsortthembythenumberofentries.Whenyouidentifycontestswithlowentrynumbersrelativetoallowedentries(shownas1290/3500,forexample),openthemasseparatetabsinyourbrowserandprogramyourlineupasatemporaryplaceholder.Thebesttimetobeginthisprocessisabout30minutestoanhourbeforerosterslock.Bythispointmostinjurysituationsareclearedup—orbecomeasclearasthey’regoingtoget—anditisunlikelyanymajornewsisgoingtodisrupttherosterswe’vespenthoursbuilding.Commitmentisakeyingredient.Knowyourlineupsbeforeevenbeginningyourscoutingprocess.Thelastthingyouwantistostillbefloppingbetweenplayersandmissanopportunity.Haveyourlineupsreadytofire,soifyouseeanunder-filledcontestwithaguaranteedprizepool,youcanquicklyselecttheplayersyouwantandsubmityourlineupbeforerosterslock.Patienceisimportant.It’seasytogetcarriedawayhuntingoverlaysandmistakenlyenterabunchoflineupsoverafewcontestsonlytoseethosecontestsfillupatthelastminute.Youwanttowaitaslongaspossiblebeforesubmitting.Youalsoneedtoshowdiscipline.Don’tgetsuckeredintoovercommittingyourbankrolljustbecauseyoufoundabunchoftournamentsthatare“only”80%full.Ifyou’rediligentanddisciplined,contest-scoutingminutesbeforetheclosingbellprovidesaneasypathtopositiveexpectedvalue.

Beyondbankingonacontestoverlayingwithtimeleftontheclock,it’sworthnotingthatweshouldn’tbeenteringcontestsjustbecausethereisoverlay.Sure,havingbetteroddsisnice,butyouwon’twinwithoutagoodlineup.Thisismoreimportanttorememberinlineupsthatfullylockwhenthefirstgamestarts(likeFanDuelcontests),butit’sjustgeneralgoodpractice—don’tentercontestsjustforthesakeofenteringthem.—AlessandroMiglio

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5.3.Bankrollmanagement

ByMaurileTremblayBankrollmanagementwillmeandifferentthingstodifferenttypesofplayers.Manyplayersplayfantasysports,includingDFS,onlyasahobby.Ideally,theybetonlywhattheycanaffordtospendonentertainment—justassomeonewhoskisforahobbywillspendonlywhatshecanaffordonlifttickets—andanywinningswilljustbeahappybonus.��

SomeplayersplayDFSforaliving.Forthem,bankrollmanagementisofutmostimportance.Theymustbetanamounteachweekthattakesintoaccounttheirexpectedreturn(themoreoftheirbankrolltheybeteachweek,themoremoneytheycanmake),butisappropriatelybalancedagainsttheirriskofruin(themoreoftheirbankrolltheybeteachweek,themorelikelytheyaretogobroke).Forfull-timeprofessionals,winningsarenotmerelyabonus.Theyarerent,carinsurance,andfood.Aprofessionalwillneedtotakeagenerally-somewhat-fixedamountoutofhisbankrolleachmonthinordertomeetlivingexpenses.Aplayer’sbankrollisnotsimplywhathehascurrentlyondepositinhisDFSaccounts.Foreitherthehobbyistortheprofessional,we’lldefinehisbankrollastheamountofmoneyhehassetasidetowagerinDFScontests,suchthatifhelostthatamount,he’dbeunabletoplaceanymorebetsuntilhefindsanoutsidesourceofadditionalcash—apaycheckfromanotherjob,aloanorfundingarrangementwithabacker,etc.��

Nowthatwe’vedefinedbankroll,weneedtodefineriskofruin.It’swhatitsoundslike—it’sthechancethataplayerwillgobrokeoveragivennumberofbets.Soundbankrollmanagementmeansincreasingourbankrollbythegreatestamountpossibleoverthelongrun.Thisnecessarilymeanstakingourriskofruinintoaccount,andhere’swhy.Supposewehave$100towageronacoinflip.Heads,wedoubleouramountwagered;tails,weloseouramountwagered.Howdowemaximizeourexpectedreturnifthecoinisfair?Wecan’t.Whetherwebet0%,32%,71%,100%,oranyotherpercentageofourbankroll,ourexpectedreturnwillalwaysbezerodollars,becausetheamountwewinwhenvictoriousisexactlyequaltotheamountwelosewhendefeated,andwe’llwinhalfthetime.Butnowsupposethatit’saweightedcointhatcomesupheads60%ofthetime.Nowhowdowemaximizeourexpectedreturn,measuredindollars,onagivenbet?Itshouldbeobviousthattheanswerisbybetting100%ofourbankroll.Whenwebet$100,weexpecttowin$20on

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average.(Supposeweplayfivetimes,winning$100threetimesandlosing$100twice,foranetgainof$100.Againof$100overfiveflipsis$20perflip.)Anyotheramountwillproducealesserreturn:ifwebet$50,forexample,wewillwinonly$10onaverage.

Ifweareallowedtoplayanygameonlyasingletime,andifwehaveapositiveexpectationinthatgame,wemaximizeourexpectedreturnbybetting100%ofourbankroll.Butnowsupposethatweareallowedtoplaythegamemorethanonce.Supposeweareallowedtoplayasmanytimesaswewantunlessanduntilwegobroke.Dowestillmaximizeourexpectedreturnbybetting100%ofourbankroll?

No,wedon’t.Ifwebet100%ofourbankrollonthefirsttrial,there’sa40%chancethatwe’llgobroke.Thenwe’llhavetositonthesidelinesfortherestofourliveswinning$0whilewewatchourfriendscontinuetomakemoneyinthispositive-expectationgame.Goingbrokeisterriblebecauseitdeprivesusoftheopportunitytokeepwagering,andtokeepmakingmoney(onaverage).That’swhywehavetobalancetwocompetinginterests:wewanttomaximizeourexpectedreturninagiventrial,butwealsowanttominimizeourriskofruin.Wecan’tdobothatonce,itturnsout,soweneedtofindanappropriatecompromise.ThisiswheretheKellyCriterioncomesin.

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AccordingtotheKellyCriterion,thepercentageofourbankrollthatweshouldbetinagivencontestisequalto(bp-q)/b,wherebisthenetoddswearebeingoffered(e.g.,1-1inaneven-moneycontest,or2-1inafair-oddsgamethatwewillwinonly33%ofthetime),pistheprobabilityofwinning,andqistheprobabilityoflosing.(Sinceweignorepushes,q=1-p.)Forthesepurposes,oddsarereducedtoavaluesuchthatoddsofX-Y,oftenwrittenX:Y,haveavalueofX/Y.Sooddsof1-1haveavalueof1,oddsof2-1haveavalueof2,oddsof3-2haveavalueof1.5,oddsof2-3haveavalueof0.667,andsoon.Notethatwhenthefirstnumberisgreaterthanthesecond(e.g.,3-2),wearetalkingaboutanunderdog.Whenthefirstnumberissmallerthanthesecond(e.g.,2-3),wearetalkingaboutafavorite—i.e.,aneventthatismorethan50%likely.TheKellyCriterionoriginallycomesfromtheworldoffinance,butitisjustasusefulinanytypeofwageringsituation.BettingusingtheKellyCriterionmaximizesourmedianbankrolloverthelongrun.Let’sreturntotheexampleabove,wherewehave$100tostartwithandcanbetasmanytimesaswewant(untilwegobroke)onacoinflipthatwilllandonheads60%ofthetime.Itturnsoutthatwewillmaximizeourlong-runrateofreturnbyalwaysbetting20%ofourcurrentbankroll.(SeeKellyCriterionformulaabove.)Soourfirstbetwillbejust$20,wellshortofthe$100we’dbetifweweretryingtomaximizeourreturnononlyasinglewager.ThisisaspecialcaseoftheKellyCriterion:inanygamethatpaysevenodds,thepercentageofyourbankrollthatyouwagershouldbeequaltoyouradvantageinthegame.Whenwewin60%ofthetimeandlose40%ofthetime,wehaveanadvantageof20%,andshouldthereforebet20%ofourbankrolloneachtrial.(1*0.6-0.4)/1=0.2Ifthegamechangessuchthatheadsoccursonly55%ofthetime,weshouldbet10%ofourbankrolloneachtrial.(1*0.55-0.45)/1=0.1Ifheadsoccurs51.5%ofthetime,weshouldbet3%ofourbankrolloneachtrial.(1*0.515-0.485)/1=0.03AndherewehaveourfirstapplicationtoDFS—specificallytoDoubleUpcontests.InaDoubleUp,thegamepaysevenodds.Whateveryourentryfeeis,that’showmuchyouwinonnetwhenvictorious,andit’salsohowmuchyoulosewhendefeated.SoifyouknowwhatpercentageofthetimeyouexpecttofinishinthemoneyinaDoubleUp,youalsoknowwhatpercentageofyourbankrollyoushouldbetoneachindependentcontest.Justdoubletheamountbywhichit’sover50%.

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NoticethatIsaidineachindependentcontest.DifferentDFScontestsarenotalwaysindependentofeachother.Totakeanextremeexample,supposeyouenterthesamelineupin20differentlargeDoubleUpsinsomeparticularweek.Supposeyoubelieve,basedonyourtrackrecord,thatyouhavea54%chanceoffinishinginthemoneyineachcontest,apparentlyjustifyinganinvestmentof8%ofyourbankrollinagivencontest.(1*0.54-0.46)/1=0.08Ifthecontestswereindependentofeachother,you’dexpecttowinaround11oftheminatypicalweek.Butinfact,inthisexample,youareusuallygoingtowineither20ofthemor0ofthem.Youwillhardlyeverwinanythinglike11ofthem.Ifyourlineupisawesomeinthefirstcontest,itwillbeawesomeintheothersaswell—becauseit’sthesamelineup.Therefore,youdonotwanttoenter8%ofyourbankrolloneachindividualcontest;rather,youwanttoenter8%ofyourbankrolltotalinallsuchcontests.Ifmultipleeven-moneycontestswith54%successratesaretrulyindependentofeachother(say,youareenteringtwocontests—onefor1p.m.gamesonlyandanotherfor4p.m.gamesonly)thenyoucanspend8%ofyourbankrolloneachofthem,for16%total.Butthemorethatthetworostersoverlapwitheachother,themoreyou’llhavetodropdownfrom16%totaltoward8%total.Bythesametoken,thelessthetworostersoverlap,themoreyou’llbeabletomoveupfrom8%totaltoward16%total.Alsobesuretokeepinmindthedirectcorrelationbetweenskilllevelandpriceofcontest.Contestswithhigherentryfeesandbiggerprizepoolsattractstiffercompetition.Thisiswhybankrollmanagementandgameselectiongohand-in-hand.Younotonlywanttoplayconteststhatmatchyourbankrollrequirements,butyoualsowanttomaximizeyourchancesofwinningbyplayingcontestsaligningwithyourskilllevel.Thereisnoshameinplaying20$1contestsinsteadofone$20contest.Egohurtstoomanyplayers’ROI.Consistentlyfindingsuccessisnotasprint,butratheramarathon.Theeasiestwaytowin$10,000istofirstwin$1,000.MovingontoothercontestsbesidesDoubleUps...Supposeweplaya50/50.It’seasiertofinishinthemoneyina50/50thaninaDoubleUp,butwedon’tgetpaidasmuchwhenwedo.Inastandard50/50wherewewager$10towin$8,supposewecanexpecttowin60%ofthetime(comparedto54%inaDoubleUp—givingusa20%advantageovertheaverageplayerineachcase).PluggingthenumbersintoourKellyformula,we’dbejustifiedinwagering10%ofourbankrollinsuchacontest.Sowiththesame20%advantageina50/50asinaDoubleUp,we’rejustifiedinwageringmoremoneyinthe50/50(10%ofourbankrollasopposedto8%).Let’sgototheotherextremeandconsidersomeGPPswithtop-heavypayouts.

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Let’sfirstconsideracontestwith100entriesthatpaysthetop30spots.Theaverageplayerhasa30%chanceoffinishinginthemoney,butinkeepingwithour20%advantage,let’sassumewehavea36%chanceoffinishinginthemoney(since30%*1.2=36%).Ifwepaya$10entryfee,andthetop30spotsgetpaid,theaveragewinnerwillnet$20.(The$1,000inentryfees,afterthecommission,willconstitutea$900prizepool.That$900willbespreadover30winners,sothemeanwinwillbe$30,whichisanetwinof$20overtheentryfee.)Thatmeanstheaveragewinnerisgetting2-1odds.($30-$10)/$10=2PluggingallofthatintotheKellyformula,weshouldwager4%ofourbankrollinthissortofcontest.(2*0.36-0.64)/2=0.04That’sabouthalfasmuchaswe’denterinaDoubleUpwithasimilaradvantage.Let’sgoallthewaytotheextremeandconsidera$10winner-take-allcontestwith100entries.Theaverageplayerhasa1%chanceofwinning.Inkeepingwithour20%advantage,thatgivesusa1.2%chanceofwinning.Ifwewin,wegetpaid$900(afterthe$100commission)foranetof$890.Sowe’regettingoddsof89-1.PluggingthosenumbersintotheKellyformula,weshouldwageronly0.0009%ofourbankrollinthiscontest.Howdoyouknowwhetheryouradvantageoverthefieldis0%,10%,20%,orsomethingelse?That'satrickysubjectinitself.IfyouhavealonghistoryofplayingDFSfootball,andifyou'vekeptgoodrecords,yourROIincashgameswouldbethemosttellingclue.(Tournamentresultsarelessprobativebecauseofthehighervariance.)Exceptthat(a)noneofushasalongenoughhistoryatthisrelativelynewstyleoffantasyfootballtobeconfidentinapreciseestimateofouradvantage,andanyway(b)thequalityoftheoverallfieldisalwayschanging,sosolidtrackresultsinthepastdonotguaranteeacurrentedge.(Similarly,poorresultsinthepastdonotmeanthatyouhaven'tgainedground.)Acknowledgingthatthereisguessworkinvolved,myguessisthatifyouworkyourwaythroughthisbookanduseasolidsetofprojectionsandlineup-constructiontools—whetheryourown,ours,orsomeoneelse's—itisnotunrealistictogainabout12%edgeoverthefieldwithoutmuchinthewayofpreviousDFSexperience.(A12%edgewouldmeanbeingexpectedtocash56%ofthetimein50/50s.)Asyoucontinuetoplay,thinkaboutthegame,andimprove,youredgeshouldgrow.Keepstatsasyouplay,andifyou'recashinginfewerthan56%ofyour50/50s,adjustyourestimatedownward.Ifyou'recashinginmorethan56%ofyour50/50s,adjustyourestimateupward.Ifyoualreadyhaveasolidtrackrecord,youmayhavereasontobelievethatyouhavealargeredge.Whateveryourcurrentestimateofyouredgeis,bewillingtoadjustitupwardsordownwardsbasedonyourmostrecentresults.Behonestwithyourself,though,anddon'tsuccumbtothetemptationtobelievethatyourwinsareduetogreatskillwhileyourlossesareduetobadluck.

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Solet’srecapwhatwe’velearned.1.Goingbrokeisbad,sodon’twageryourwholebankroll,oranythingclosetoit,onasinglecontest.2.Thebiggeradvantageyouhaveinacontest,themoreofyourbankrollyoucanwageronit.Ifyouhavea10%edge,youcanwagertwiceasmuchasifyouhavea5%edge.3.Ifyouareenteringmultiplecontests,youcanincreasethetotalamountyouwageronlytotheextentthatthedifferentcontestsareindependentofeachother.Ifyourrosteroverlapiszero,goaheadandbettwiceasmuch(total)ontwocontestsasyou’dbetononecontest.Butifyourrosteroverlapistotal,youshouldbetthesameamount(total)ontwocontestsasyou’dbetonone—sohalfasmuchpercontest.Ifyourrosteroverlapispartial,betsomewhereinbetween.(Thisisabitofanoversimplification.Contestsarenotcompletelyindependentjustbecausethereisnorosteroverlapiftherostersweremadeusingthesamesetofprojections.Butit’sprobablycloseenoughforourpurposes.)4.Holdingyouradvantageoverthefieldconstant,youcanwagermoreinconteststhatpayoutalargerpercentageofthefield.Ifyouhavea20%edgeovertheaverageplayer,forexample,you’dbejustifiedinbetting10%ofyourbankrollina50/50orhead-to-headcontestthatpays50%oftheentrants,8%ofyourbankrollinaDoubleUpthatpays45%oftheentrants,4%ofyourbankrollinaleagueortournamentthatpays30%oftheentrants,andjust0.0009%ofyourbankrollinawinner-take-allthatpays1%oftheentrants.5.Asaroughapproximation,foranyspecifiedamountyouintendtowagerinagivenweek,adecentruleofthumbistoputabout80%ofitintocashgamesandabout20%intotournaments.

Besuretokeeptrackofyourinvestment.

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ThefollowingchartsshowthepercentageofbankrollyoushouldputintoplayineachindependentcontestaccordingtotheKellyCriterion,giventhespecifiedadvantageyouhaveoverthefield.Witha10%edgeoverthefieldorless:

contesttype players entry prizepool winners %ofbankrollH2H 2 10 18 1 0.00%50/50 100 10 900 50 0.00%

DoubleUp 100 10 900 45 0.00%Tournament 100 10 900 30 0.00%

Winner-Take-All 100 10 900 1 0.00%(Thosearenottypos.Ifyouhavea10%edgeinahead-to-headcontest,forexample,youwillwin55%ofthetimewhileyouropponentwins45%ofthetime.Butifyouwinonly55%ofthetime,youarefailingtobeattherake,whichmeansthatyouwilllosemoneyonaverage,soyouroptimalwageriszero.)Witha15%edgeoverthefield:

contesttype players Entry prizepool winners %ofbankrollH2H 2 10 18 1 4.37%50/50 100 10 900 50 4.37%

DoubleUp 100 10 900 45 3.50%Tournament 100 10 900 30 1.75%

Winner-Take-All 100 10 900 1 0.04%Witha17.5%edgeoverthefield:

contesttype players entry prizepool winners %ofbankrollH2H 2 10 18 1 7.19%50/50 100 10 900 50 7.19%

DoubleUp 100 10 900 45 5.75%Tournament 100 10 900 30 2.88%

Winner-Take-All 100 10 900 1 0.06%

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Witha20%edgeoverthefield:

contesttype players entry prizepool winners %ofbankrollH2H 2 10 18 1 10.00%50/50 100 10 900 50 10.00%

DoubleUp 100 10 900 45 8.00%Tournament 100 10 900 30 4.00%

Winner-Take-All 100 10 900 1 0.09%Witha22.5%edgeoverthefield:

contesttype players entry prizepool winners %ofbankrollH2H 2 10 18 1 12.81%50/50 100 10 900 50 12.81%

DoubleUp 100 10 900 45 10.25%Tournament 100 10 900 30 5.13%

Winner-Take-All 100 10 900 1 0.12%

Youcandownloadafree"BankrollTracker"spreadsheetforMicrosoftExcelfromRotoGrinders.

Ibelieverecordsandstat-keepingtobethemostunderratedaspectsofbankrollmanagement,especiallyforbeginners.Alargepartofrecord-keepingisbeingproactive.Thismeansplanningoutyourweekaheadoftime,andinmanycaseshavingatleastabi-weeklyplan.Keeptrackofthetypeofcontest,thebuy-in,thenumberofplayersand(+/-)profit.Thisalsogoeshandinhandwithgameselection,asyoushouldbebrowsingthecontestsaheadoftimeandthencomingupwithaplanforthatweek.Record-keepingisalsothebestwaytobeimpartialonwhenyoushouldbemovingupanddownstakes.—BJVanderWoude

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5.4.FreePlayContests

ByMarkWimer

Inadreamscenario,allcontestswouldbefreeandawardlargeprizesforwinning(orevenjustforplaying).HowitusuallyworksisDFSsiteslikeFanDuelgeneratetheirrevenuethroughcommissionsonpaidcontests.Butfreeplaycontestsareexceptions,don’thaveentryfees,andareessentiallygiveawaysforthesites.Theychalkituptomarketingcosts.Freeplaycontestsexistasarisk-freewayfornewplayerstogainexperienceandasarewardtoregularplayers.FanDueloffersfreeplaycontestsatvarioustimeswithvariousformats,andpartnersites,likeFootballguys,sometimeshavespeciallinkstofreeplaycontests.

WhenyouplaypaidcontestsonFanDuel,youwillbegintoaccrueFanDuelPoints(orFDPs),whichallowaccesstothefollowingmonthlyfreeplaycontests:

• Bronze:$2,000freeplaycontest,requires1,000FDPearnedinamonth• Silver:$3,000freeplaycontest,requires5,000FDPearnedinamonth• Gold:$5,000freeplaycontest,requires15,000FDPearnedinamonth• Platinum:$8,000freeplaycontest,requires50,000FDPearnedinamonth

YoudonothavetospendFDPstoenterthesecontests,andyoucanenterallofthecontestsforwhichyouqualify.Forexample,ifyouearn16,000FDPsinacalendarmonth,youcanentertheBronze,Silver,andGoldcontests.Thesimplestwaytofindfreeplaycontestsistoenterthelobby,clicktheNFLTournamentstab,andslidethemaxentryfeebuttonallthewaytotheleftsotheentryrangeshows$0minto$0max.AndFanDuelusuallysendsareminderemailwhenyouqualifyforanFDP-relatedfreeplaycontest.

Inadditiontofreeplaycontests,FanDuelalsoallowsplayerstoplayinfreecontests.Althoughthesefreegamesdonotofferprizeslikefreeplaycontestsdo,theydoallowplayerstoearnvaluableexperiencewithoutriskingmoneytogainthatexperience.Ifyouareplayingonalimitedbankroll,Iwouldhighlyrecommendyoutrysomeofthestrategiesinthisbookinthesefreecontests.Youcancompareyourscorestothosewhosucceededinreal-moneygames.Then,ifyoufindthereisaspecifictypeofstrategyyouexcelat,youcantaketheplungeandfocusonusingthosespecificstrategiesinpaidentrygames.—SteveBuzzard

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5.5.Bonuses

ByWillGrantFanDuelhasrevampedtheirdepositbonusstructureforthe2016NFLseason.ThenewdepositbonusplaniscalledTheFanDuel5-Pack.The5-Packisawardedtonewuserswhocreateanaccountanddepositatleast$10.ItgivesthenewownerfivefreeentriesintoNFL50/50contests.Thevalueofthecontestsisbasedonthedepositamount:• Deposit$10-$24.99andreceive5free$0.25entriesintoNFL50/50Contests• Deposit$25-$99.99andreceive5free$1entriesintoNFL50/50Contests• Deposit$100-$199.99andreceive5free$5entriesintoNFL50/50Contests• Deposit$200ormoreandreceive5free$10entriesintoNFL50/50ContestsThese50/50contestswillbeofferedeveryweekoftheseason,soifyoujoinafteracoupleweeks,you’llstillbeabletogetthe5-Packdepositbonus.Thecontestswillbeawardedatarateofoneperweek.Eachweekanemailwillcometoyourinboxwithalinktothefreeentry.PerFanDuelrules,youmustuseallfiveentrieswithinthefirst35daysafterdeposit.Besuretolookforthoseemailsanddon’tmissanyweeks.Note:Somedepositbonusesundertheoldsystemdidnothaveanexpirationdate,soifyoureceivedadepositbonusbeforethe5-Packchange,youmaystillhavesomeleft.CheckwithFanDuelSupportifyouhavequestionsaboutanolddepositbonus.

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5.6.ReferralsandPlayerPoints

ByAustinLeeandKyleWachtelOnalldailyfantasysites,youmustreadthefineprint,asterisks,andlegalesetogetthereallowdownonreferralbonusesandplayerrewards.It’sallsubjecttochange,butwe’veboileditdowntothecurrent,quickversiontogetyoustartedandletyouknowwhattoexpect.

5.6.1.FanDuelreferralbonuses

FanDuelgivesbothyouandyourreferrala$10bonusoncethenewplayerenters$20worthofcontests.The$10bonuscanbeappliedtoentryfeesandmustbeplayedthroughbeforewithdrawal.Whenloggedin,you’llfindtheReferralCenterlinkundertheMyAccounttab.Thereareafewdifferentwaystoreferfriends.YoucanentertheiremailsintheReferralCentertosendthemyourreferrallink,oryoucancopy,paste,andsendyourreferrallinktothemdirectlythroughanyformofmessaging.Besuretogivethemyourusernameaswell.Whentheyjoin,itmaybeeasiestforthemtoclickthe“GotaPromoCodeorReferralUsername?”linkandsimplyenteryourusername.

5.6.2.FanDuelPoints

AnotherwaytogetfreebiesistoearnandredeemFanDuelPoints,whicharealsoknownasFDP.Foreverydollarinentryfees,usersareawarded10FDP.UsersarethenabletouseFDPtoenterpaidcontestsinlieuofmoneyattheconversionrateof2,400FDPperdollar.Putanotherway,you’llearnafreedollarforevery$240youspend.TheoptiontoswitchfromcashentrytopayingwithFDPisnexttothe“Enter”buttononthecontestpagewhereyoupickyourinitiallineuppriortoentering.Asanaddedbonus,FanDuelrewardsitsplayerswiththefollowingtieredmonthlyfreeplaycontestsbasedontheamountofFDPyouaccrueeachmonth:

• 1,000FDPforentryintotheBronzefreeplaycontest• 5,000FDPforentryintotheSilverfreeplaycontest• 15,000FDPforentryintotheGoldfreeplaycontest• 50,000FDPforentryintothePlatinumfreeplaycontest

Usersareabletoenterintoallofthefreeplayconteststheyqualifyfor,andthosefreeplaycontestsnormallytakeplacewithinthefirst10daysofthefollowingmonth.You’llbeabletofindthemintheFanDuellobby,andanemailwillbesentprovidinglinkstothefreeplaycontestsyouqualifyfor.

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6.AdvancedLineupManagement

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6.1.Adviceaboutnumberoflineupsperweek

ByMaurileTremblayThere’sultimatelynorightorwronganswer—howmuchtimeyouwanttospendenteringlineupseachweekdependsonyourgoalsandpreferences.Buttherearesomeguidelines.

6.1.1.Cashgames

Themoreyoudiversifybyenteringdifferentlineups,themoreofyourbankrollyoucanwager,and—aslongaseachlineupis+EV—thegreateryourreturnwillbe(notasapercentageofamountwagered,butinabsolutedollaramount).Theproblemisthatyoursecond-bestlineupwon’tbeasgoodasyourfirst-best,andyourthird-bestwon’tbeasgoodasyoursecond-best,andsoon.Sothere’satrade-offbetweenquantityandquality.Ifyou’regoingtospend10%ofyourbankrollonasinglelineupinagiventime-slot,youcanprobablyspend8%oneachoftwolineups(16%total),6%oneachofthreelineups(18%total)...theexactamountsdependonhowmuchyourrostersoverlap,andeventhere,thereisatrade-off.Thelesstheyoverlap,themorediversificationyou’regetting(justifyingahighertotalamountofwagers),butthelesstheyoverlap,thelessthey’llgenerallyincludetheverybestvalues,givingyoualowerEVonthelesserlineups(militatingtowardalowertotalamountofwagers).

6.1.2.Tournaments

Aswithcashgames,youcandiversifybyenteringmultiplelineups—andthere’satrade-offbetweenquantityandquality.Butthetrade-offisabitdifferentwithtournaments,andgenerallyagreaternumberoftournamentlineupsiswarranted.Whenyougotoyoursecond,third,andfourthlineupsandbeyond,yourfloorgenerallydropsfasterthanyourceiling.Andwithtournamentswe’reprimarilyinterestedinceiling—sowe’renotlosingasmuchinthewayofEVaswewouldbewithourNthlineupinacashgame.

AsIimprovedasaDFSplayer,IstartedtoparedownthenumberoflineupsIused.PartofitwasthefactIbegantoentermorecontests,particularlycashgames—itquicklybecameabandwidthissue.Practicallyspeaking,thediminishingreturnsbecamereadilyapparent—Ididmyselfnofavorsbyenteringsub-optimallineups,asfunasitmighthavebeentoseeabunchofdifferentlineupsgoingatonce.—AlessandroMiglio

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6.2.Managingalargenumberoflineups

ByDavidDoddsMyphilosophyonFanDuelistoplayalotoflower-priced50/50games.SomeweeksIhavealsotakenasmanyas20shotsontheSundayMillion.SohowdoesonemanagesomanyrostersandnotgetintroubleshouldakeyplayerscratchonSunday?Itcanbetricky,buthereismyapproach.IcreateadummylineupforeverytypeofcontestIwanttoplay.EnterthesebeforetheThursdaygamestarts:

• Thursday-Monday• Sunday-Monday(Cash)• Sunday-Monday(GPP)

AftertheThursdaygamestarts,theseadditionaloptionsbecomeavailable:

• SundayOnly• Sunday1p.m.Start

AndthenaftertheSun1p.m.gamesstart,onecanalsoenter:

• Sunday4p.m.• Late(4p.m.,SNF,MNF)• andevenPrimetime(SNF,MNF,andTNF)

Thekeytoallofthisisthedummylineups.Don’tcreate15differentrostersforaparticularslatetostarttheweek.Therewillbetimetochangetherosterslater.Ifyoudon’twaittosetrosterslater,itsoonbecomesunmanageableifsomethinglikealatescratchimpactsmultiplelineups.TheoneexceptionIwillmakeisIliketomakeonedummyGPPlineupsoIcaneasilyseparateallofmyGPPsatonetime.Thebiggest(andmostpopular)GPPsareloadedupearlyintheweek(Sundaynight),soIgenerallywilljustenterinthisdummylineuptosecurethespotbeforethecontestsellsout.Togetnearly2,000gamesinplaywiththebeststructures(100+man50/50s,largeDoubleUpsof300+people),Igenerallylooktoenternewcontestseveryfour-to-sixhoursfromWednesdayon.MyplanistohavecompletedenteringconteststomatchwhatIwanttowagerfortheweekbySaturdaynight.

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6.2.1SwitchingfromDummytoRealLineups

BeforetheThursdaygamestarts,Iwillcrafttwo-to-fourlineupsfortheThursday–Mondayslate.Iliketopre-planmystrategysothatIdonothavetoomuchexposuretooneplayeroronegame.Forexample,sayIamplanningtowager$600onmyThursdaygamesbetweenthreelineups.Imightfurtherchoosetoput$250onLineup1,$200onLineup2,and$150onLineup3.UsingFanDuel’sexportlineupfunction,it’seasytothenreplacethedummylineupswithrealonesalotclosertothegamestart.(Igenerallydoitaftertheinactivesareannouncedoraboutonehourbeforethestartofthegame.)Bypushingfromthedummylineuptothenewlineup,youcaneasilyviewhowmuchactionyouhavemovedovertoeachlineup.Alittlebitoftweakinghereandthereandyouhaveyourdesiredoutputof$250forLineup1,$200forLineup2,and$150forLineup3.Sincemostofmyactionisingamesfrom$1-$5,Idon’tcareabouttheexactnumberofcontestsforeachlineup.(Iammanagingtothedollarexposure.)Idothisfortheotherslatesattheappropriatetimeaswell(usuallySaturdaynightfortheSundaystartingcontestsandthenagainifnecessaryafterinactivesareannouncedonSundaymorning).ForGPPs,IactuallyliketousetheFootballguysInteractiveValueChartsandwritethelineupsintoaspreadsheet.BecauseIroutinelywouldgowith20differentlineupsintheSundayMillion,IusuallywaituntillateSaturdaynighttochangemydummyGPPlineups.Thisallowsmetoalsoquicklyviewmystacksandexposuretocommonplayers.Idoitthiswaysothoselineupsarenotcollidingwithenteringadditionalcashgamesandforcingmyselftomaneuverthrough20-30lineupseachtimeIputanadditionallineupinplay.

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6.3.ExposurePerPlayer

ByAustinLeeandChadParsonsForourpurposes,exposureislooselydefinedashowmuchyouhaveinvestedinaparticularoutcome.Themoreconfidentyouareinyourprediction,themoreyou’rewillingtoincreaseyourexposuretoit.Theconceptofexposurecomesupregularlyinfinanceandbusiness,butitalsoshowsupinsmalldecisionswemakeeveryday.ShouldIfillthepartyfridgewithonetypeofdrinkthateveryonelovessoIdon’trunout?OrshouldIbroadenthedrinkselectiontobesureIgetmostpeople’sfavorite?DoItrusttheweatherforecasterswithmylimitedluggagespaceandpackonlyshortsformyvacation?OrdoIswapshortsforjeansandriskhavingtodolaundrysooner?ShouldIspendallofmytimedevelopingoneconcept?OrshouldIsplitthattimetoexploremultipleideas?Allofthesedecisionsinvolvecalibratingexposure.IntheworldofDFS,eachweekisfilledwithhundredsofpredictions,andeachpredictionistiedtoaloworhighpercentageofthemoneyyou’llspendenteringconteststhatweek.Themoreyoudiversifyyourlineups,themoreyouflattentheswingsinyourbankroll.Somefantasyplayersunderstandthisinstinctively,butmanydon’tanalyzetheirexposureuntiltheyhaveabadweekandrealizetheyhadthesameunderperformingplayerinalmostalloftheirlineups.Analyzingexposureinadvanceensuresthatyourfavoriteplayersgettheexposuretheydeservewhilelimitingtheusageofplayersyou’relessexcitedabout.Becausethemathissimpler,itcanbeeasytofallintothetrapofcalculatingexposurebynumberoflineupsorentriesinsteadoftotalentryfees,butit’sallaboutthemoney.Forexample,ifyouhaveRunningBackAinone$100contest,hehasthesameexposureasRunningBackBinfive$20contestsanddoubletheexposureofRunningBackCin10$5contests.Ifyou’replaying$250worthofconteststhatweek,thenyourexposuretoRunningBackA(1*$100/$250)andRunningBackB(5*$20/$250)is40%each.AndyourexposuretoRunningBackC(10*$5/$250)is20%.

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Mostexposurecalculationsfocusonindividualplayers,butit’simportanttoalsoconsidermultiplayerexposuretoaspecificgamescriptprediction.Forexample,ifthePackersareaseven-pointfavoriteovertheColtsinagamewithahighover/under,youcoulduseEddieLacyinsomelineupsandastackofAndrewLuckandT.Y.Hiltoninothers.YoumightevendiversifyyourinvestmentintheColts’passingattackbystackingLuckwithDonteMoncriefinsomelineups.NoticehowallofthesechoicesplaytothegamescriptoftheColtspassingfrombehindandthePackersrunningtheclockontheground?Ifthegamedoesn’tplayoutthatway,relyingtooheavilyonthatgamescriptcankilltheproductionofalloftheplayersyourosteredfrombothteams,and—inturn—killalargepercentageofyourlineupsfortheweek.DiversificationisnotlimitedtoaspecifictypeofDFScontest.Whetheryou’reenteringacashgameoralargetournament,creatinguniquerosterswithsoundweightingincreasesaDFSplayer’sweeklyoutcomefloorwhilestillgeneratingpositivegains.Becauseyourexposureplancanbeimpactedbyseveralfactors,therearen’thardandfastrulesforhowyoumanageexposure.Yourexposurestrategywillchangedependingonthetypesofcontestsyouenjoy.Ifpricingistight,you’lllikelyhavemoreexposuretoasmallersetofplayers.Butifpricingisloose,you’llhaveexposuretoalotofplayersandnothavehighexposuretoanyofthem.MostDFSplayersdon’twanttoputaplayerintomorethan50%oftheirlineups.Butsomerisk-takerswillgobeyondthatmarkwithregularity.Moreconservativeplayerswillspreadtheirmoneyacrossmoreinvestments,toppingoutinthe30%-40%rangefortheirtopplayersateachposition.EachweekIgenerateseparatecash-gameandtournamentrankingsforeachposition.Cash-gamerankingsarebasedonplayerfloors,andtourneyrankingsarebasedonprojectedceilings.Someplayersappearinbothsetsofrankings.Eachpositionallistcontainspricingdiversity,whichallowsformorepossibilitiesformixingandmatchingduringlineupconstruction.Ialsorankmyfavoritestacksaspartofthetournamentrankingprocess.Whenthelistsarecomplete,Ihavecashandtourneymenusofatleastsixrunningbacks,10widereceivers,andfourplayersateachoftheotherpositionstochoosefrom.Inaperfectworld,mypositionalexposurewouldmatchthechartbelow.

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ThehorizontalaxisinthischartistherankingforthetotalmoneyIhaveinvestedinaplayerinallcontesttypes.It’snotareferencetothecashortourneyrankingsIcreatebeforeconstructinglineups.Playerswhoappearonbothmycashandtournamentrankingslistsarelikelytobeatthetopofmycombinedexposurerankingseveniftheyaren’thighlyrankedoneitherlist.Asyoucanseeinthechart,Igenerallydon’thavemorethan50%exposuretoaplayer.IfIhavehimrankedhighlyforbothcashgamesandtournaments,however,Imaythrowcautiontothewindandrosterhiminasmuchas70%ofmyinvestments.Likethepirate’scode,thischartismoreofaguidelinethanarule.Someweeksthepricingandprojectionswilltellaverydifferentstorythantheidealexposurecurvecansupport.Tightendsandquarterbackstypicallyhavecrowdeduppertiers,meaningI’lluseonlytwoorthreeoptionsacrossallofmylineups,increasingmyexposuretothemintothe20-40%range.Forrunningbacksthereisoftenamid-weekorweekendscratchthatcreatesaglaringvalueplaythatdemandsexposureover50%.Ontheflipside,Iusealargegroupofwidereceiversmostweeks.Thereareseveralpracticalwaystomanageexposureasyouconstructyourlineups.Themoststraightforwardwaytodiversifyistousemultiplesourcesforprojections.AtFootballguysweofferprojectionsfromafewdifferentexperts—aswellasanaverageofthoseforecasts—soyouhavedifferentperspectivestochoosefrom.Youcanalsoleveragecontesttimesandmorelimitedplayerpoolsasthestartingpointforlineupconstruction.IusuallyplayThursday,Sunday-Monday,Sundayonly,1p.m.,andlatelineups.

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ThevarietyofconteststarttimesallowsforaDFSplayertosegmenttheirplayerusagebasedonavailability.AttractiveThursdayNightFootballoptionsarenaturallylimitedtocontestslockingearlyintheweek.Therefore,thosetargetplayerswouldrequireahigherownershiplevelinthoseconteststobalanceouttheentireweek’sportfolioofplayershares.Thesametheoryappliestoprimetimeorotherlate-startingcontests.LiketheThursdaynightgames,thisallowsforbalancingoutplayerswithshiftingvaluemetricsfromearlierintheweekoradevelopinginjurysituation.Anotherpracticalapproachistobuildyourlineupsaroundyourtopstacksoftheweek.Istartbypairingquarterbackswithpass-catchersandaddingthehighestvaluekickerfromeitherteaminthatgame.Afterexhaustingmyquarterbackstacks,I’llstartcombiningdefenseswithrunningbacksorkickers.Onefinalwaytoconstructdiversifiedlineupsistoanchorkeypositionswithcertainpricingtiers,whichwillinfluencehowyoufillouttherestofyourlineup.Forexample,startwithastudquarterbackandtightendwhenconstructingonelineup,beginwithastudrunningbackandwidereceiverforthenextlineup,andkickoffathirdlineupwithastudwidereceiverandtightend.Generallyspeaking,pickingtwostudsatdifferentcombinationsofpositionsasyourstartingpointwillyieldnewandinterestinglineupchoices.Youcouldalsoflipthisconceptonitsheadandchoosecheapcombostostartwith.IfyouplanonenteringmultiplelineupsintolargeGPPs,doseparateexposurecalculationsforeachmulti-entrycontestinadditiontoyourtotalexposurefortheweek.Thiswillensurethatyouhavebothmicroandmacrodiversification.Hopefullythisgivesyounumerousoptionstomixandmatchasyoucreatelineupsandbalanceexposure.Themostimportantthingistobeawareofyourexposuretoensurethatitreflectsyourplayerrankingsfortheweek.

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7.IntroductiontoNBA

ByDevinKnottsFormostofus,thelast17Sundaysoftheyeararethebest.Sure,theNFLalsohasThursdayandMondaynightsandsprinklesinafewSaturdays,butatleasthalftheweekislitteredwithgaps.Thankfully,Footballguysisexpandingtheir2016coveragetofillthemidweekvoidsandkeepyourDFStrainrollingaftertheNFLseasonends.Forthefirsttime,FootballguyswillventureoutsideofthefootballworldtocoverNBADFS.Atthehighqualityyou’vecometoexpectfromFootballguys,wewillprovideNBAtoolstohelpnewplayerslearnthegameandexperiencedplayersimprovetheirskills.WehopeNBADFSbecomesanotherfunwaytogrowyourbankroll.Inthischapterwewillbreakdownthegameandofferstrategiestoprepareyoufortheupcomingseason.

NBABasics

LikeNFL,NBAhasa$60,000salarycapspreadacrossninepositions.Italmostresemblesanactualbasketballgame,whereyouselecttwoateveryposition(pointguard,shootingguard,smallforward,powerforward)exceptcenter.IfyouhaveneverplayedNBA,thescoringsetupiscriticalandcantakegettingusedto.ThebiggestlearningcurvefornewDFSplayersisfindingplayerswhofillasmanystatisticalcategoriesaspossible.Thepointsystemheavilyfavorsrebounds,assists,steals,andblocksoverreal-lifepointsscored.BelowisanexampleoftwoplayersinactualgameslastyearwhereDraymondGreenscoredonlysixactualpointsinthegamebutoutscoredMontaEllis’26pointssolelybecauseGreenscoredenoughinothercategoriestooffsetthe20-pointdifference.

Player Points Rebounds Assists Steals Blocks Turnovers FanDuelPoints

DraymondGreen 6 10 9 4 2 1 43.4

MontaEllis 26 1 3 2 1 3 37.4

ScoringCategory FanDuelPoints

3-ptFG 3

2-ptFG 2

FT 1

Rebound 1.2

Assist 1.5

Block 2

Steal 2

Turnover -0.1

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OfallthesportscurrentlyofferedonFanDuel,findingNBAplayernewsandstartinglineupsisthemostcritical.UnliketheNFLandMLB,theNBAdoesnotrequiretheirteamstosubmitastartinglineuporactive/inactivelistshoursbeforethegame.Insteadyouhavetoleanonpeopleatthestadium,likebeatwritersattendingmorningpractices.Footballguyswillbetrackingalloftheselatebreakinginjuriesandhowtotakeadvantageofthemaspartofournewcoveragethisseason.Oneofthebiggestfactorstoconsiderwhencreatinglineupsisuncertaintywhetheraplayerisinthestartinglineupornot.Thiscreatesbothanopportunityandarisk,astheplayersinthelatergamewillinevitablybeunder-ownedcomparedtothosethatareguaranteedtobestartingintheearlygame.Goingwithalatelineupwilloftendifferentiateyourselffrom

thecrowd,asyouroppositionwillbescaredoffbytheriskofstartingaplayerwhomaynotbeplaying.Alotofthetimetheavoidanceoflateplayersisunjustified,sounlesstheplayerisquestionableormissedapracticeearlierintheweek,goaheadandstarttheplayeryouaretargeting.Theremaybelatescratchesthroughouttheyear,butthesesituationsarerareandcanhappeninnearlyanygame.

HowNBADFSDiffersfromNFLDFS

Mostofusgrewupplayingseason-longfantasyfootballorbaseball,butbasketballisrelativelynewinthefantasylandscape.Eachsporthasdifferenttacticsthatcanbeutilizedtobecomeasuccessfulplayer,butatthecore,allfantasysportsaresimilarenoughthatyoushouldnotbeintimidatedbytryinganewone.Onceyoumasteronesport,theskillsyouhavedevelopedtransitionrelativelyeasilyovertoanewsport.Attheendoftheday,wearelookingforplayers’productiontoexceedtheirsalary.NBAisthesportwiththeleastamountofvariancewhencomparedtoNFLandMLB.Wewilldiscusskeytacticslaterinthischapter,butifyouareabletoestimateminutesplayed,calculateaveragefantasypointsperminute,andadjustfortempochanges,youwillbeabletoprojecttheplayer’slikelypointrange.NFLscoringisdrivenbycatches,yards,andtouchdowns.Andtouchdownshighpointvaluemakesthemasignificantvariableinpredictingsingle-gamescoring.NBAplayersaremorelikerunningbacksinafantasyleaguewhereyouonlygetpointsforyardsgained.NBAscoringisbasedonahighvolume,lowimpactnumberofplaysaddingupthroughoutthegame.Topplayersscore45-50points,andthemosttheycanscoreonasingleplayisthreepoints.That’sonly6-7%oftheirtotalscore.TherearenoNBAvariancesituationscomparabletoanNFLplayercatchinga50-yardtouchdownpass,instantlydoublinghisfantasyscore.

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Regardingspecifictargetscores,youareaimingtoscore5xplayers’salariesincashgamesanda7xmultiplierintournaments.Incashgames,thiswillmeansometimessacrificingupsideforplayerswithalowerfloor,aseachplayerhasadifferentrangeofoutcomes.ForGPPs,youmayhavetouseaplayerwithalowerfloorwhohastheupsidetogettoreach7x.Everyplayerinyourlineupdoesnotneedtohitthe5xor7xthresholds,butacrosstheboard,youwillneedtohitthesemarkstofindFanDuelNBAsuccess.

LineupConstructionandPlayerAnalysis

NowthatwehavecoveredtheNBAbasics,let’sdivedeeperbylookingatsomekeylineupbuildingstrategies.Attheendoftheday,lineupconstructionandplayeranalysisarecrucialtobeingasuccessfulNBADFSplayer.Aswementionedbefore,makingabadselectioncanbedifficulttoovercomebecausenoHailMaryscoringplayexiststoturnyourbadplayintoagreatone.Instead,ittakesanentiregameforaplayertoevolveintoagreatplay.Belowisagraphshowingthenumberofpointsscoredbypositionin2015.

Ithelpstobeawareofthetypesofplayerswhoscorethemostpointsbasedonopportunity,butthisgraphisnotmeanttoleadyoutopaybigbucksforthehighestscoringpositions.Oftentimestheoppositeistrue.Ifyoucanrosterashootingguardorsmallforwardwhoscoresover40points,thenyouhaveabiggeradvantageovertheaverageplayersatthesamepositions.Pointguardsandcentershavethemostopportunityforpoints.Pointguardshavetheballintheirhandsthemost,andcentershavethemostopportunitiestoreboundandblockshotsduetotheirproximitytothehoop.

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Whenbuildingyourlineup,startbyidentifyinginjurysituationsandconsidertheirimpactonotherplayers.Themajorityofthevalueyouwillfindisbasedonaplayerseeinganincreaseinminutesoropportunityduetoanotherplayernotplaying.Sincethereare82gamesinaseason,thepricingalgorithmhasaplayer’sbaselineprettywellestablishedbasedonseason-longaverageandrecentgamehistory.Ifastartingplayerisoutandtypicallyaverages35minutespergame,howhavethoseminutesbeenallocatedwhenthatplayerhasbeenoutinthepast?Hasitbeenanalmostone-for-oneswapofthebackupgettingallofthoseminutes,orishistimesplitbetweenafewdifferentplayers?Ifitisthelatter,thisdoesn’tcreateagreatvaluesituationasitishardtogetupsidewithaplayerwhomayonlyget15-20minutespergame.Belowisachartshowingthedirectcorrelationbetweentotalminutesplayedandfantasypointsscored.

Paceofplayisanothercomponentcriticaltoestablishingyourlineups.Unlikeothersports,theNBAhasashotclockwhichessentiallyguaranteesthat24secondsfromnowtherewilleitherbeashottakenorachangeinpossession.Someteamsutilizemoreofthatclockthanothersastheyuseaslowtempoaspartoftheirstrategy.Otherteamspreferafastpacedtempo.Lastseasontherewasaneight-possessionspreadbetweentheteamaveragesforpossessionpergamewithSacramentoleadingwith103.7andUtahat95.4.Ifyourplayerfacesateamwithahighnumberofpossessionspergame,youwillbenefitfromthemreceivingmoreopportunitiesthanusual.FanDueldoesnotrevealthedetailsoftheirsalaryalgorithm,butweknowthesalariesdonotfluctuatemuchonanight-to-nightbasis.Players’pricestypicallyaligntotheirrecentaverage.Soifaplayerisfacingateamwithahightempo,thereisanopportunitytotargethim.

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2015TeamswithMostPossessionsperGame

Team PossessionsperGame

PointsperGameAllowed

Sacramento 103.7 109.1

GoldenState 103 104.1

Boston 102.6 102.5

Phoenix 101.9 107.5

Washington 101.8 104.6

2015TeamswithFewestPossessionsperGame

Team PossessionsperGame

PointsperGameAllowed

Utah 95.4 95.9

Toronto 96.2 98.2

SanAntonio 96.4 92.9

Cleveland 96.4 98.3

Miami 97 98.4

Vegastotalsareanothergreatindicatorofwhattypeofgamethisisgoingtobe,asyoucaneasilyderivethetotalnumberofpointsthatateamisexpectedtoscorebasedontheO/Uandthepointspread.Agame’sover/undercanvarywildly,allthewayfrom188pointsinamatchupbetweenslowpaced,inefficientoffenses,tothe230wesawlastyearwhenOklahomaCityplayedGoldenState.Theaveragetotalofagamewillbearound200,sopaycloseattentiontogamesdeviatingsignificantlyhigherorlower.Pointspreadscanalsoalertyoutosituationswherekeyplayersmightsitoutthefourthquarter.Startersoftenrestduringtheendofthethirdquarterandthebeginningofthefourthquarterbeforereturningtoplaymostofthelastperiod.Butifateamleadsby15ormorewhenthestarterswouldordinarilyreturntothegame,thenyouruntheriskofthemonlyplayingafewmoreminutesornotcomingbackatall.Thisobviouslyhinderstheirfantasyvalueaswewantthemaximumnumberofminutesaplayercanplay.SoifaplayersuchasLebronJamesaverages1.4pointsperminuteandonlyplays30minutesinsteadofhisusual36,youcouldmissoutonthe8.4fantasypointshewouldhavescoredinthefourthquarter.

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Theremainderoftherosterbuildingprocesswillinvolveselectingplayerswiththebestvalue-basedprojectionsatpositionswhereyourrosterisstillempty.ThebesttoolforthejobisFootballguys’InteractiveValueCharts,whichuseourdailyplayerprojectionsandbuildanoptimallineupbasedonyourinitialselections.

GameSelection:CashGamesversusTournamentStrategies

Understandinggameselectionandgametheoryisasimportanttoyouroverallstrategyasbuildinglineupsandevaluatingplayers.JustlikeotherDFSofferings,cashgamesincludeheadtohead,50/50,doubleup,orthreemancontestswhereyouonlyhavetobeatasmallpercentageofthefieldtomakemoney.Incashgamecontestsyouarelookingtomakeasafelineupwithahighceilingbutalsoahighfloor.Youwilllikelybewillingtosacrificesomeoftheceilingsaslongasthefloorishighertoguaranteeyourselfpoints.ATournament(commonlyreferredtoasaGPP)isacontestwhereamuchsmallerpercentageofthefieldwins,makingitcriticaltodifferentiateyourselffromthecrowd.InaGPPyouwilllikelytakemorerisksasyouneedthemostpossiblepointstobeateveryoneinthecontest.Sounlikecashgames,youneedtotakesomerisksintournamentsonhigh-ceilingplayerswithlowfloors.IncashgamesforNBA,youaregoingtowanttoselectthebestvalueplaysofthedaynomatterhowpopulartheyare.Theseplayersoftenfillinforinjuredplayersorseeincreasedminuteswhenafellowstarterisout.RussellWestbrookisthebestexampleofastarterbenefittingwhenanotherstarterwasinjured.Let’slookathowheperformedwithandwithoutKevinDurantoverthelasttwoseasons.

RussellWestbrook GM MPG PPG RPG APG TO Steal Block FG%

withKevinDurant 99 33.9 23.2 7.6 9.8 4.1 2.0 0.2 44.9%

withoutKevinDurant 48 35.4 30.5 7.6 9.2 4.8 2.2 0.4 42.6%

AsyoucanseewhenDurantwasout,WestbrookaveragedsevenpointspergamemorewhenDurantwasabsent.Unfortunately,wewon’tbenefitfromunderstandingthissituationin2016asDurantmovedtoGoldenState.Butthekeyistoidentifytrendslikethisandadjustaccordinglyifastarplayerisoutofthelineup.ForNBAtournaments,afewstrategiescanincreaseyouroddsofsuccess.Thefirstistodifferentiateyourteamfromthecrowdbybeingcontrarian.Eachplayerhasarangeofoutcomes,andeveninthebestmatchup,theymaynotperform.Theymaygettheopportunitieseveryoneexpected,buttheshotsstillhavetogointhebasketforthemtoperformfromafantasyperspective.TheDFSworldhascaseswherepeoplesufferfromgroupthink.Sometimeseveryonerostersthesameplayerbecausehestatisticallyprojectstobethebestplayofthenight.Butprojectionsarebasedonthemostlikelyscenario,notthefullrangeofoutcomes.If40%ofpeoplehaveoneplayerwhoyoufadeandhesignificantly

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underperforms,thenallofasuddenyouhaveasignificantadvantageover40%ofthefield.Anotherstrategyisgamestacking.Whilethisisn’taspopularintheNBAasitisforMLBorNFL,itcanstillwork,especiallywhenstackingopponentsagainsteachother.Whileitisalmostimpossibletopredictovertimegamesotherthanselectingaclosegametostack,gettinganextrafiveminutesfrommultipleplayersinagameyoustackedwillpaydividends.Let’stakealookatagamelastseasonbetweenGoldenStateandOklahomaCity.Whileitwouldbeunlikelyyouwouldbeabletofitalloftheseplayersintothesamelineup,havingacoreoftheseplayersinyourGPPwouldhavemadeforaverygoodnight.

Theprimaryreasonstackingisnotapopularchoiceisthatitisuncommontoseesomanyteammatesreachvalue.Remember,wearetryingtoget7xthesalaryforGPPplayers.Ifoneplayerreachesthe7xmarkitoftenimpactshisteammates.Thereareonlysomanyrebounds,assists,andpointstogoaround.Itispossible,butthepointsarenotascorrelatedasNFLorMLB,aseachteamislikelytoscorewithinamuchsmallerrangeoftotalpoints.ForMLBorNFL,youarelookingforateamthatcangocrazyandoverperformtheirtypicalrange,butyoureallydon’tseetheextremevarianceinNBAtotalpointsscoredtomakestacksaspopularastheyareinothersports.

OklahomaCity FantasyPoints

KevinDurant 64.4

RussellWestbrook 57.2

SergeIbaka 46.4

GoldenState FantasyPoints

StephCurry 61.3

DraymondGreen 59.5

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BankrollManagement

GoingfromNFLtoNBAisabigchangefromabankrollmanagementstandpoint,andtherearestrategiesyoushouldusetowithstandtheupsandthedowns.Belowaresomeguidelinestohelpyourecoverfromrandomvariancesoyourskillcanwinoutinthelongrun.Mostimportantly,startslowifitisyourfirsttime.TherehavebeenfartoomanyinstanceswherepeoplehaveasuccessfulNFLweek,andbythetimethenextNFLweekcomesaround

theyeitherhavetoredepositorplaywithlessthanwhentheystarted.ManyDFSplayersfallintothetrapofplayinginthesamestakesineverysporteventhoughtheyaresignificantlybetterinsomesportsthanothers.Withoutasmuchseason-longpopularityasNFLandMLB,fantasyNBAisrelativelynewformostpeople,sothelearningcurveissteeper.Makesureyoubecomefamiliarwiththegamepriortosteppinguptothestakesyouplaywithmorefamiliarsports.Evenifyouareahuge

NBAfan,thefantasygameisdifferent.Rememberhowlongittookyoutobecomeafantasyexpertintheothersportsyouplay.StudythelineupsofwinningDFSplayersandtrytoreverseengineertheirrosterstobetterunderstandthereasoningandstrategybehindtheirpicks.Besuretolimittheamountyouwagereachday.Atruebankrolldoesn’tmeantheamountinyourFanDuelaccount.Itistheamountyouarewillingtoinvest,andifyouloseit,youwillnotredeposit.Thegoalistomaintainabankrollthroughoutaseasonandevengrowit.Forcontext,theNFLseasonis17weeksexcludingtheplayoffs,andfortheNBAthereare180days.Therearemorethan10xasmanyslatesforNBAasthereareforNFL.YoucanhaveasuccessfulyearinNFL,butoverthecourseof17weeksitmaylargelybeduetovariance.Youwouldneedafewyearstodetermineifyouareagoodplayerbasedonhotandcoldstreaks.ForNBA,youwillhaveseveralhotstreaksandcoldstreaksthroughouttheyearifyouplayeverysingleday.Thekeyhereisnottoincreaseyourpercentageofbankrollinplaysolelybecauseyou’reonahotstreak,butinsteadkeepthesamepercentagethroughouttheyear.Asyourbankrollgrows,playmore.Ifyourbankrolldecreases,lowertheamountyouplaybutkeepthesamepercentage.Wecan’tgiveyouanexactpercentageofhowmuchtoplay,buthereisatablewithsomegeneralguidelines.

Cash GPP BankrollRisked

100% 0% 8-10%

50% 50% 3-5%

0% 100% 2-3%

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Summary

TheintentofthischapterwastoprovideanoverviewofhowtoapproachandemploywinningstrategiesforNBADFSonFanDuel.AswegetclosertothestartoftheNBAseason,wewillreleaseadditionalcontentcoveringthesetopicsinmoredepth.

1. MonitorTwitter,beatreporters,andourlineupalertpagetodeterminewhenaplayerisoutandwhichplayersbenefitthemost.

2. Monitorteamsbenefittingfromup-tempomatchups.3. Startwiththevalueplays,thenselectplayerslikelytooverperformbasedonmatchup.

Thentargetplayersprojectedtoperformwellwhohavetheupsideorfloorthatstrategicallymatchesyourcontesttype.

4. Ensureyourcashgameplayersarestartingandreceivingsignificantusage/minutes.Oftentimestherearemustplaysincashgames.

5. Withgamesthatstartlate,besuretheplayerisstartingincashgames,otherwiseavoidanyplayerindoubtasazerowillalmostbeanautomaticloss.

6. Utilizeoptimizers,projections,andarticlestoensurethatyourlineupagreeswithquantitativeanalysis.

7. Ifyouwanttostack,stackplayersonbothsidesofthegame.UnlikeNFLandMLB,ittakestwoteamstoproduceahighscoringNBAgame.Stackingisconsideredaveryriskystrategy.

8. BankrollmanagementstrategiesshouldbedifferentthanNFLastheseasonislonger,andthereismorevariance.

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8.IntroductiontoMLB

ByJohnLeeAsaFootballguyssubscriber,youassuredlyaremoreinformedthantheeverydayfantasyfootballplayer.Youraccesstothebestmindsinfootballhaslikelyledyoutomultipleseason-longchampionshipsand,becauseyouarereadingthisbook,somesuccessindailyfantasycontests.Theunfortunatetruth,however,isNFLseasononlylastsfourspectacularmonths,whichmeansyouwilleitherbeforcedtotakeaneight-monthhiatusfromDFSorbecomeanexpertinanalternativesport.Thisshortchaptershouldhelpyouwiththebasicsofmajorleaguebaseball(MLB)andputyouonapathtobecomeaprofitableplayerforasportthatisplayedoverhalftheyear.

MLBBasics

WhenenteringanMLBcontestonFanDuel,youwillfirstnoteyoursalarycapisonly$35,000(versus$60,000forNFL).Acrossninepositions,thatequatestolessthan$3,900perplayertospendyourentiresalarycap.FanDuelisveryintuitivefromastandpointofrostercompositionsincetherosterspotsarethesameasanMLBlineup—astartingpitcher,catcher,firstbaseman,secondbaseman,thirdbaseman,shortstop,andthreeoutfielders(outfieldersarenotsplitintoleft,center,andrightfield).ScoringforFanDuel’sMLBproductwasalteredintheSpringof2016togeneratehigherscoring.Theprimaryresulthasbeenwinningscoresroutinelysurpassing150points,asopposedto40pointsrepresentingawinningscoreinyearspast.Scoringisbrokendownintotwobroadcategories:pitchingandhitting.Pitchersobviouslygeneratepitchingpointsandhittersaccumulatepointsforwhattheydoattheplate.

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Pitchersdonotcollectpointsforwhattheydowhenbattinginanycircumstance.SeebelowforspecificsregardingFanDuelMLBscoring:

HitterScoringCategory FanDuelPoints PitcherScoringCategory FanDuelPoints

Single,Walk,orHitbyPitch 3 Win 12

Double 6 EarnedRun -3

Triple 9 Strikeout 3

HomeRun 12 InningPitched 3*

RunBattedIn(RBI) 3.5

Run 3.2

StolenBase 6 *fractionalscoringperout

OfallthesportscurrentlyofferedonFanDuel,weatherisprobablymostimportantforMLB.WhenplayingNFLDFS,forexample,weatherisafactorwhendetermininghowyouwanttoapproachacertainplayer(likenotpayingtopdollarforaquarterbackinawindythunderstorm),butgamesarealmostnevercanceledaltogetherinNFL(orNBA).InMLB,youmustmonitortheweathereverydaytoensureyoudonotfallvictimtothedreadedrainout,whichwillnetyouatotalofzeropointsforanyplayersinvolvedinthatgame.Onaverage,thereareonly35-40rainoutsperseason,whichrepresentsasmallfraction(~1.5%)ofthetotalgamesplayed,butthereareconsiderablymoregameswithraindelaysthatcanalsoaffectyourfantasyprospects.Thislatterconcern(raindelays)ismostprominentwhenyouareconsideringastartingpitcherfromagamewherethereareweatherconcerns.Ifagamestartsat7PMandgoesonlyafewinningsbeforeraincausesthetarptobeputontothefield,itisnotuncommonforthestartingpitchertoberemovedfromthegameentirelyaftera30-minute(orlonger)delay.Sincethestartingpitchercanoftenrepresentonethirdofyouroverallsalarycapandpossiblepointproduction,thisisariskrarelyworthtaking.Alwaysconsultlocalradarmapsforthegameinquestion,checkthehourlyprecipitationforecasts,andensureyoudonotrosterapitcherwhocouldgetpulledearlyduetoweather.Forpositionalplayers,thelineofdistinctionisnotasclear-cut.Iftherearereasonablealternativesforthepositionyouareconsidering,youmightwanttotakethesaferouteandrosteroneofthosealternatives;however,ifthegameisatCoorsField,whereteamtotalsareroutinely25%higherthanatypicalballpark,youmightwanttoabsorbtheriskassociatedwiththeweatherpossibilitiestogainexposuretothatupside.AsimilardebatecouldbeobservedforcashgamesversusGPPs,whereplayingitsafewithweatherismoreadvisableincashgames,butgainingexposuretoplayersinapotentialrainoutcouldyieldsignificantupsideifownershiplevelsarelowenough.Asageneralruleofthumb,youshouldstartpayingattentiontoweatheratathresholdof30%chanceofshowers.Abovethatnumberandyoucouldbeinriskofdelaysand/oranoutrightcancellation;rosteringplayersfromgameswherethechanceofrainisbelowthatnumbertendstobefairlysafe.

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Lastthingaboutweather:Alwaysconsiderthepossibilityofmakeupgameswhengauginghowcommittedateammightbetohaveagameplayedinsuboptimalweather.Ifitisthelastgameofathree-gamesetbetweentwoteamswhomeetonlyonceayear(i.e.,interleagueplay),thoseteamsaregoingtobefarmorewillingtowaitoutatwo-plushourraindelaythantwoteamswhohaveanothertwoseriesschedulednextmonth.Inotherwords,aninterleaguegameinmid-Augustwithashakyforecastisalmostassuredlygoingtobeplayed,whereasarainydivisionrivalryinAprilbetweentwoteamswhoarescheduledtoplayeachother15+moretimesisfarmorelikelytobecancelledandplayedasadouble-headeronanotherday.

HowMLBDFSDiffersfromNFLDFS

UnderstandingthenuancesofeachDFSsportwillultimatelybeessentialtoimprovingone’sreturnoninvestment(ROI),butitisfirstnecessarytorecognizethemajordifferencesbetweenthosesportsonastrategiclevel.Luckily,noneofthosedifferencesareoverlycomplex,buttheyshouldbediscussedbeforewedelvedeeperintorosterconstructionandoverallstrategy.ThefirstmajordifferencebetweenNFLandMLBDFSisvariance.WehavediscussedatlengthhowNFLscoringishighly-variantcomparedtoNBAscoring,butneitherofthosesportscomesclosetotheamountofvarianceobservedinmajorleaguebaseball.Thinkaboutit—thebesthittersintheleaguefail70%ofthetimeandonlyget(onaverage)fouropportunitiespergametoscorefantasypoints.IntheNFL,theWR3foranygiventeamroutinelygetsthatmanyopportunitieseachgamebutarerarelyconsideredstrongplays.Forthisreason,bankrollmanagementisprobablymostimportantforMLB,particularlywhenonetakesintoaccountthatthereare180+daysofMLBDFSeachseason.

DirectlyrelatedtotheheightenedvarianceassociatedwithMLBscoring,thereisgenerallynospecifictargetscoreforMLBcontests.WithNFLDFScontests,westartwith$60,000andhopetogeneratearostercapableofscoring120pointstowincashgamesand180pointstobecompetitiveintournaments;forbaseball,thosenumbersaredramaticallydifferentduetonightlyvariance.Oncertainnights,youmayneed250+pointstowinaGPP,butasmallergameslatewithmoderatescoringmightrequireonly170pointstopulldownatournament.Thesamecouldbesaidforcashgames,where150pointscouldwinyoumoneytonightbutloseyoumoneytomorrow.Wewilldiscussrosterconstructioninanupcomingsectiontohelpbuildthebestrosterpossible,butitisworthnotinghowextremevarianceisinMLB.YoursuccessshouldbemeasuredoverafarlargersamplesizethanwithNFL(orNBA).

WhenplayingMLBDFS,youwillalmostalwaysbuildyourrosteraroundyourstartingpitcher.Theprimaryreasonisthepitcherhasthemostscoringpotentialofanyplayeronthefieldduetosheeropportunity.Ifthepitcherhasagreatouting,hewillthrow27outs,eachofwhichwill

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earnhimapoint,nottomentionthevalueofastrikeout(3points)andawin(12points);evenonthebestofnights,abatterwillrarelyearnmorethanfiveatbats,whichseverelylimitshisabilitytoaccruefantasypoints.Inessence,apitcherprovidesascoringfloor,whichisessentialforconsistentsuccessinMLBwherefailureoccursatsuchahighrate.AllofthisisindirectcontrasttoNFLDFS,wherethereisnoreasontobuildaroundaspecificpositionbecausenosingularpositioncarriestheequivalentweightofthestartingpitcher.ThelastmajordifferencebetweenNFLandMLBDFSissheerfrequencyofgames.InNFL,wehavetowaitanentireweekbetweengamesandthereareonly17opportunitiestocapitalizeonourresearch;inMLB,therearegamesalmosteverydayforsixconsecutivemonths.Thisrealityhasbothprosandcons.ThebiggestproisprofitableDFSplayerscangettheirmoneyintoplayeverynighttomaximizetheirROI.Thatrealityiscontrastedagainsttheamountofresearchandeffortthatgoesintoanalyzingmatchupseverynight;itcanbecomeagrindeventothemostdedicatedofDFSlovers.Forthesereasons,thebestapproachistoearmarkspecificdayswhereyoutakeabreakfromplayingtokeepyouredgeandrefreshyourmind.YoumightconsiderThursdays,wheremanyteamsaretravelingandthegameslatesaremorelimited,andpossiblyadayoffovertheweekendtospendtimewithyourlovedones.Whateveryoudecide,donotbeafraidtobackawayfromthekeyboardtokeepyourmindsharp.

LineupConstructionandPlayerAnalysis

ThereiszerodoubtthatlineupconstructionisthesinglemostimportantskillinbecomingaprofitableDFSplayer.Knowinghowtoaccuratelyprojectplayeroutputandbuildwinningrostersisalearnedskill.ThissectionwillbegintotouchuponthestepsyouneedtotakewhenbuildingrostersandconsiderationssuccessfulDFSplayerstakeintoaccountonadailybasis.Asdiscussedabove,thereisalmostnosituationwhereyouwanttobuildarosterwithoutslottinginyourstartingpitcherasyourroster’sbackbone.ThestartingpitcherisgoingtobethemostpredictableplayeronaMLBDFSroster;thinkofnameslikeClaytonKershaw,NoahSyndergaard,andMadisonBumgarner,allofwhomroutinelypickupastrikeoutperinningandputtheirrespectiveclubsintoapositiontopickupthewin.Meanwhile,MikeTrout,whoisarguablythebestoffensiveplayerintheworld,willstillfailmorethanhesucceedsattheplate,makinghimafarriskierDFSplaythantop-endpitchingoptions.Forthisreasonalone,youwillalwayswanttospendthebulkofyoursalaryonpitcherswhoyouperceivetobeinagoodspottoperformfavorably.Inaprevioussection,youreadthereisnospecifictargetscoreforMLBcontestsonFanDuel.Forthatreason,buildingrostersforMLBdoesnotincludetakingintoaccount“multipliers”aswehaverecommendedforbothNFLandNBA.ForNFLcashgames,themultiplieris2x,

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wherebyaplayerwitha$9,000salaryisexpectedtoscore18fantasypointstojustifyrosteringhim;forNBAcashgames,themultiplieris5x,whichmeansLeBronJames’$10,000salarynecessitateshimreturning50fantasypointstoensureagoodreturnonthatinvestment.InMLB,thesemultipliervaluesarelargelynon-existentbecauseofvariance.However,itisgood

practicetotargetpitchersprojectedtoachieve4xtheirsalaries(i.e.,a$9,000pitchershouldbeprojectedtoscore>36fantasypoints).Thereasonthisrulecanbeappliedtopitchersisbecausetheyarefarmoreconsistentperformersthanhittersbecauseofthegeneralsuccessratesofbothparties(pitchersandhitters).Whenrosteringapitcher,itisadvisabletoconsiderthosewhoareprojectedat4xorhigherfromtheirrespectivesalariesandultimatelychoosethehighest-pricedpitcherwiththebest(Vegas-based)oddsofpickingupthe12-pointwinintheircontest.Choosingthehighest-pricedpitcherwiththoseparametersensuresyouaregettingthehighestpercentageofyoursalaryaspossibleintoathemostfavorablesituation;itissimilartoH-value(discussedearlierinthisbook)wherebytwo

playerswithsimilarmultipliervaluescanbequalitativelyseparatedbasedonsalary,withthemoreexpensiveplayerbecomingmorevaluableduetooverallnumberoffantasypointsreturnedfortheinvestment.Asanexample,ifJakeArrieta’sprojectionsindicatethathewillscore44pointsforhis$11,000salary,youwouldalmostalwayschooseArrietaoveralesser-talented,lower-pricedpitcher(i.e.,JimmyNelsonwith30projectedpointsata$7,500salary)whoalsohasa4xmultipliervalue.Overaprolongedsamplesize,takingthemostexpensivepitcherwiththehighestprojectedvaluewillyieldthemostconsistentlyhigh-scoringrosters.Afteryouhaveselectedapitcherwithwhomyouarecomfortable,youwillhaveanideaofhowmuchsalary(perplayer)youhaveremainingfromwhichtoroundoutyourroster.Generallyspeaking,itisadvisabletoidentifythebestvalue-basedoptionsontheentireslatetoensurethatyouaremaximizingyourscoringpotential.Theseextremevaluestendtobetheresultofoneofseveralfactors:aplayerwhowasmovedfromthebottomtothetopofthebattingorder,aminorleagueprospectwhoisnotyetappropriatelypricedbyFanDuel’ssalaryalgorithm,oraplayerwhoexcelsincertainsituations(i.e.,onewhohitsleft-handedpitchersverywell)andismakingaspotstartforthatreason.Inmostcases,theseplayerscanbefoundatornearsite-minimumsalary($2,000),wheretheopportunitycostislowandaffordssalaryflexibilityatotherpositions.Atthispoint,youwillhaveidentifiedastartingpitcherandslottedsomeextremevalueplayersintoyourlineup.Theremainderoftherosterbuildingprocesswillinvolveselectingplayerswiththebestvalue-basedprojectionsatyourremainingemptyrosterpositions.Thisismost-easilydoneusingasoftwareprogramlikeExcelSolver,buttherearethird-partyapplications(i.e.,FantasyCruncher,InteractiveValueChartsonFootballguys,etc.)thatcanalsodefinethehighest-projectedlineupusingyourprojections.

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GameSelection:CashGamesversusTournamentStrategies

Ifyouarereadingthisbook,youhavealreadylearnedthattherearedistinctdifferencesinhowtoconstructacashgamerosterversusatournamentrosterforNFL-baseddailyfantasygames.Consistencyandopportunityarethebasisforcashgames,whereasstackingandrosteringhigh-upsideplayersconstitutesoptimalGPPstrategy.ThegoodnewsisthatMLBstrategiesmirrorNFLstrategiesinmanycases,soifyouareanexpertatgeneratingthosetypesoflineupsforNFLgames,theapproachwillbesimilarforMLB-basedgames.ForcashgamesinMLB,youwillwanttorosterthebestpitcherwithanoptimalmatchupwhooddsmakersprojectasthebiggestfavorite.Thattrifectaisthekeystoneofawinningcashgamelineup.Ifyourcashgamepitcherconsistentlynets40+pointsinasomewhatpredictablefashion,yourrosterswillhavegeneratedasizeablescoringfoundationfromwhichyourhitterscangetyouabovethecashline(for50/50contests);if,however,yourcashgamepitcherfails,

thereistoomuchgroundtomakeupwithyourhitterstoconsistentlycash.Forthisreason,youmustmakethestartingpitcherthefoundationofyourcashgamelineups.Afteryourcashgamepitcherischosen,youwillwanttocompleteyourrosterwithplayerswhoareprojectedtoachievemaximalvalue(projectedpointsperdollar).Animportantcaveatistotrytorosterplayersforyourcashgameswhoarebattinghigherinthelineup.Itcertainlyis

openfordiscussion,butageneralrule-of-thumbistoonlyrosterplayersbatting5thorhigherbecausethosebattersaremostlikelytogetadditionalatbatsasthegamewindstoaclose.Ofcourse,ifyourprojectionsdemonstratethatashortstopbatting8thatsite-minimumisagreatplay,youshouldgivethatplayerseriousconsiderationbecausethoseprojectionsshouldhavehisbattingpositionincorporatedintohisfinalprojectionnumbers.ForMLBtournaments,thereareanumberofpossiblestrategies,allofwhichareviableapproaches.Firstandforemost,stackingisamustacrossallapproaches.Stackingistheprocessofrosteringplayersintandemwhosefantasyoutputispositively-correlated.InNFLgames,stackingaWRwithhisQBishighly-correlatedbecauseinorderfortheWRtocatchatouchdownpass,theQBwillhavetobetheonetothrowit;inessence,anytouchdowntothatreceiverisworth10points,insteadof6points.InMLB,stackinginvolvesrosteringplayerswhoareadjacenttooneanotherinthelineup.Iftheleadoffbattergetsadouble(6points),theplayerfollowinghimiswalked(3points),andthebatterinthethree-holehitsahomerun(12pointsplus10.5pointsforRBI’s),yourrosterwillamassaquick41.1FanDuelpointsbecauseeachplayerwillhaveearnedhiswayonbaseandsubsequentlyscored(9.6points).StackingisapowerfultoolinMLBDFSandwinningGPPlineupsalmostalwaysemploythisstrategyinoneformatoranother.

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FanDuelallowsamaximumoffourplayersperteam,whichmeansyoucanstacktwooffenseswithapitcherfromathirdteamtocompleteaGPPlineup.Thisapproachiscommonlyreferredtoasthe“TwoTeamMini-Stack”strategy.Withthisstrategy,theDFSplayerisbettingthetworosteredoffenseswillscorealotofruns;ifeitheroffensestruggles,thelineuphasnochanceofcashingevenatthelowerendofthescale.Thisstrategylikelyrepresentsthehighest-upsideapproachtoMLBrosterbuilding,butitisarguablythetoughesttoperfectbecausenailingthosetwohigh-scoringoffensesandasuccessfulpitcherwithinthesalarycapisarareevent.Thelineuptotheright,stackedwithOriolesandMets,isarepresentativeexample.YuDarvishanchoredthelineupwithmorethana4xmultiplier,andmultipleplayersineachteam’sstackhadstrongoutings.

AnotherapproachtobuildingaGPPlineuponFanDuelistotakea“ModifiedTwoTeamMini-Stack,”wherebytheDFSplayerrostersseveral(lessthanfour)positively-correlatedoffensiveplayersfrommultipleteamsandroundsouttherosterwithhigh-upsidehittersfromotherteams.ThisisprobablyoneofthemorepopularapproacheswithintheDFScommunitybecauseitaffordstherosterbuildertheabilitytospendallofone’savailablesalary,particularlywhenatwoteammini-stackapproachistooexpensiveorleavestoomuchsalaryonthetable.Thelineupontheleftisagoodexample,whereBusterPoseyandShin-sooChoowereusedasfilleraroundthethree-batterTwinsandOriolesstacks.

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Onestrategythatcanbeprofitableistochooseahigh-upsidepitcher,asingleteamstack,andthencompletetherosterwithcashgameplayers.Thebenefitofthisapproachisyouonlyhavetohitasingleteamstack,whichisfareasiertopredictthanhavingtwoteamsscoreanexcessofruns.Ifyourteamstackperformswell,youarethenrelyinguponcashgameplayerstomeetorexceedyourprojections;whilethoseplayersarelikelynotpositively-correlated,thereiscredenceinthisapproachbecausethoseplayersarepresumablythosemostlikelytosucceedonthatparticularslate.Intheexampleontheright,theDFSplayerpaidupforYuDarvishatpitcher,stackedfourOrioles,andfilledtherestofhisrosterwithplayersfromthreedifferentteams.ThelastapproachapersoncouldjustifyforGPPcontestsonFanDuelistouseacashgamelineupincertainoccasions.Generallyspeaking,usingacashgamelineupintournamentsisanegativeexpectedvalueendeavoroverthelongterm,butincertainsituations,playingacashgamerosterinaGPPcanbeadvantageous.First,playingacashgamerosterinasmall-fieldGPP

(<300entries)canbelucrativebecausehalfofthoseentrieswilllikelybestacksthatdonotscorealotofruns,whichmeansyourcashgamerosteronlyhastobeat150entriestowinand90entriestocash(mostGPPspayouttothe20thpercentile);ifyourcashgamerosterhasagoodnight,itisnotunreasonabletoseeitscoreenoughpointstowinasmallerGPP.AsecondaryplacewhereacashgamerostercouldbinkaGPPisonnightswherethereareonlyahandfulof

games.Inthosesmallergameslates,ifnoneoftheteamsscoresmorethansixruns(orthereabouts),stacksinvolvingthoseteamswillnotachieveenoughpositivescoringcorrelationtoachieveahighscore;inthoseinstances,asolidcashgamelineupcouldbeenoughtofinishnear(at)thetoptopullofftheupsetwin.

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StackingiscertainlyakeydeterminantinconstructingwinningGPPlineups,buthowshouldweapproachpitchingforGPPs?ThebiggestkeyforchoosingapitchertoheadlineyourGPPlineupisupside.Ifyourpotentialpitcherhasnotthrownmorethan85pitchesallseason,thereislittlereasontobelievethathewillmakeitpastthefifthorsixthinningtonight.Likewise,iftheaveragepitcherinMLBstrikesout~20%ofbattersandyouareconsideringapitcherwithan11%strikeoutrate,heprobablydoesnotpossesstheupsideyouneedtowinaGPP.Youshouldalwaysbesearchingforupward-trendingpitcherswhohavedisplayedupsideinthepastandarefacinglackluster,strikeout-proneoffenses;consideringlow-upsidepitcherssimplybecauseyoubelievetheywillbelow-ownedwillrarelygarnerthetypeoffantasynumbersnecessarytowinaGPPandthereforeshouldbeavoidedasageneralprinciple.

BankrollManagement

Thehighly-variantnatureofMLBDFSdictatesthatstrictbankrollmanagementbeemployedtowithstandtheinevitablesustainedlosingstreaksthataccompanyasix-monthseason.WithNFLDFS,onecouldmaketheargumentthatalessernumberofcontestsoverthecourseoftheseasonmandatesgettingahigherpercentageofone’sbankrollintoplayeachweekend;thatnumber,dependingonwhomyouask,couldbeanywherefrom8%to20%ofone’sentire

bankroll.InMLB,thereisrarelyareasontoplaymorethan10%ofone’sbankrollinanygivennightsimplybecauseitisentirelypossibletoloseforfiveormorenightsinarow,evenforthebestDFSplayersintheworld.Withthattypeofvarianceinplay,riskingmorethan10%ofone’sbankrollatatimeisadangerousproposition,althoughthelevelofinherentriskiscertainlycorrelatedtothetypesofgamestheDFSplayerenters(head-to-heads,50/50’s,GPPs,multipliers,etc.).ThereisnomagicformulafordeterminingtheperfectgamedistributionforaMLBDFSplayerbecauseeachplayerhashisownpredeterminedrisktolerance.SomeplayersplayDFStoincreasetheirlevelofinterestinthegamesandpotentiallygrindoutasmallprofit.Othersaremerelyplayingforthepossibilityofabigfive-figurepayday(orhigher).Whateveryourgoals,youshouldhaveaplaninplacetoachievethosegoals.Ifyouarelookingtobealong-term,profitableplayer,youshouldfocusatleast75%ofyouractioninlarge-field50/50’swithaminorportionofthatmoney(~10%)going

towardssmallerdenominatormultipliers(triple-ups).Theremaining10%to25%ofyouractionwouldgotowardstournamentswithanemphasisonthoseofthesmaller-field,single-entryvariety.Asyougainexperienceanddemonstratelong-termprofitability,youmightjustifyenteringlarger-scaletournamentswithmultipleentries,buttheinitialsuggestionistostartsmallandexhibitsuccessbeforeplayinginthosetournamentswithmoreestablishedplayers.

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Summary

TheintentofthischapterwastoprovideanoverviewofhowtoapproachandemploywinningstrategiesforMLBDFSonFanDuel.Subsequentversionsofthischapterwillbeexpandedandultimatelycraftedintoafree-standingbookonMLBDFS,butuntilthathappens,besuretorememberthesekeypoints:

1. Alwaysmonitorweatherforecastsforgameswhereyouareconsideringplayers.2. MLBisthemostvariantofthemajorDFSsports,whichmeanssoundbankroll

managementisessentialforlong-termprofitability.3. Thestartingpitcheristhefoundationofcashgamerosterconstruction.4. Becauseopportunityisthebasisforfantasyscoring,pitchersarealwaysmore

predictablethanhittersinMLBDFS.5. WhilemultipliersarenotasimperativeforrosterconstructionasinNFLandNBA,

targetinga4xmultipliervalueforpitchersisagoodguideline.6. Forcashgamepitchers,alwaysrosterthemostexpensivepitcherwitha4xmultiplier

projectionvaluewhoismostfavoredtowinhisgamebyVegasoddsmakers.7. Utilizesoftware,suchasExcelSolver,togenerateoptimallineupspredicatedonvalue-

basedprojections.8. StackingisessentialforconstructingwinningGPPlineupsinthevastmajorityof

instances.9. NeverrosterapitcherinGPPlineupswhohasnotdisplayedanabilitytoaccrue

significantfantasypoints.10. BankrollmanagementstrategiesshouldbeinlinewiththeDFSplayer’sshort-andlong-

termgoals.

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9.DFSGlossary

Thisglossarycontainstermsandphrasescommonlyusedinthecontextofdailyfantasysportswhetherornottheyappearinthisbook.50/50contest:Acontestinwhichtheprizepoolissplitevenlyamongthetop50%oftheentrants.Forexample,agamewith50entrantswouldhave25winners.Theamountofcashwonbyeachpersonisslightlylowerthandoubletheentryfee,anditdependsonthesite’scommission.Forexample,acontestwitha$50entryfeemighthavea$90prize.Action:Competitioninacontest.Playerswhocreatehead-to-headmatchupsthatareawaitingopponentstojointheircontestsaresaidtobetryingtocreateorgetaction,thusincreasingtheamountofdollarsinplayfortheirDFSlineupsthatweek.Bankroll:TheamountofmoneyaDFSplayerhassetasidetowagerincontests,suchthatifhelostthatamount,he’dbeunabletoplaceanymorebetsuntilhefindsanoutsidesourceofadditionalcash.Bearish:Afeelingagainstornotlikingaplayerorcontest.Forexample,thebeliefthatagivenplayerorteammaynotperformwellorthatacontestmaynotofferaverygoodpayoutstructure.Theoppositeofbullish.Boom/Bust:Aplayerwhohasthepotentialtohaveareallybigperformance(“boom”)orvirtuallynocontribution(“bust”)fortheupcomingweek.Aboom/bustplayeroftenprojectslowdespitehispotentialtopostahighscorebecausehe’slesslikelytoboomthanbust.Bracketchallenge:AtermborrowedfromtheNCAAMarchMadness,whereafieldofteamsispairedupagainstoneanotherwiththewinneradvancingontothenextround.ForDFS,thisusuallyinvolvesafieldofplayerswhoarematchedupinhead-to-headcontestswherethewinneradvancesuntiltherearejusttwoteamsleft.Thosetwoteamsfaceoffinafinalhead-to-headmatchuptodeclareawinnerofthebracketchallenge.Prizesvaryforthesetypesofcontests,thoughpayoutstypicallyfavorthelastfoursurvivingteams(“FinalFour”)andespeciallythewinner.Bullish:Afeelingtowardorlikingaplayerorcontest.Thebeliefthatagivenplayerorteammayperformwellorthatacontestmayofferaverygoodpayoutstructurewouldbetwoexamples.Theoppositeofbearish.Buy-in:Seeentryfee.Cash(verb):Towinmoneyinacontest.E.g.:"Ienteredfour50/50s,andIcashedinthreeofthem."

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Cashgame:Typically,acashgameisacontestinwhichatleast40%oftheentrantsearnaprize.Forexample,a50/50contestisconsideredacashgamebecausehalftheentrantswinaprize,whichisdoubletheentryfeeminusthesite’scommission.Ceiling:Thehighestlevelofproductionwithinaplayer’srangeofrealisticoutcomes,orhisbest-casestatisticalscenario.Chalk:Aplayerconsideredtobeaconsensuspickora“muststart”optionforagivenDFScontest,especiallyincashgames.Commission:Themoneycollectedbythedailyfantasysportssiteandkeptforprofit.Itissometimesreferredtoasapercentageoftheentryfee.Thepercentagevariesbysiteandcontestsize.Ahighercommissioneithermeanslessmoneytothewinnersorfewerpayoutpositions.Dartthrow:Alsoreferredtoasa“lotteryticket,”asmallinvestmentinaplayerwithasimilarlysmallprobabilityofsuccessbutparticularlydynamicupside;alow-risk,high-rewardinvestment.Dartthrowsareoftentargetedwhensalarycapspaceisheavilyallocatedtohigh-dollarplayers,forcinganentrantto“throwadart”atlow-pricedoptions.(Seepunt.)DepositBonus:Thebonusyoureceiveformakingadepositwithasite.DFS:Anacronymfor“dailyfantasysports,”fantasyconteststhatcanberundailyorweeklybasedonaslateofgameswithinthattimeframe.Diversify:TousemultiplelineupsandplayersacrossseveralDFSentries.Awaytohedgebetsbycompilingmultiplerosterswithdifferingplayers.DPP:Dollarsperpoint.Aplayer’ssalarydividedbythenumberoffantasypointsaplayerhasscored,orisprojectedtoscore,inagivenweek.Sometimesusedasameasureofvalue,withfewerdollarsperpointindicatinggreatervalue.Entrant:Anypersonwhoentersadailyfantasysportscontest.Entryfee:Sometimescalledthe“buy-in,”thisistheamountofmoneyyoumustpayinordertoenteracontest.Thisfeeincludesthecommissioncollectedbythedailyfantasysportssite.Exposure:Ownershipofaplayer.Thetermismostcommonlyusedasameasureofhowoftenaparticularplayerisrosteredacrossseveralentries(e.g.“limitingone’sexposuretoPlayerX”).Fade:Topurposelyavoidexposuretoaspecificplayerorplayers,foranynumberofreasons.

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FDPs:Standsfor“FanDuelPoints.”PlayersearnFDPsbyenteringreal-moneycontestsatFanDuel.Youcanusethesepointsinlieuofcashtoenterpaidcontests.IfyouaccrueenoughFDPs,youwillalsobeeligibletoentercertainmonthlyfreeplaycontests.Fieldsize:ThenumberofentrantsinagivenDFScontest.Flex:Astartingpositioninsomefantasyleaguesthatallowsplayersfrommultiplereal-lifepositionsratherthanjustone.Forexample,afantasyfootballleaguemightallowownerstofilltheFlexpositionwiththeirchoiceofaRB,WR,orTE.TherearenoflexpositionsatFanDuel.Floor:Thelowestlevelofproductionwithinaplayer’srealisticrangeofpossibleoutcomes;hisworst-casestatisticalscenario.Aplayer’sactualfloorissubjective,ofcourse,sothetermismostaccuratelyusedindefinitelytodescribethegeneralneighborhoodofaplayer’slowestexpectations.Freeplaycontest:Acontestthatdoesnotrequireanentryfeetoparticipate.Somefreeplaycontestsofferreal-moneyprizestothewinners,someprovidefreeentryintoothercontests,othersgiveawayFanDuelPointsasprizes,andsomearejustforfun.Freeroll:Seefreeplaycontest.Fish:AninexperiencedDFSplayer.Theexperiencedplayers(“sharks”)aresaidtofeedonfish,seekingoutnewandinexperiencedplayerswhomaysubmitweaklineups.FullPPR:Afantasyfootballscoringmethodwhereaplayergetscreditedwithonefantasypointperreception.Gamescript:ApredictedsetofoutcomesforagamebasedonasetofdataliketheVegasline,offensiveanddefensiverankings,recenttrends,andeventeamhistories.Thegamescriptcanhelpdeterminevalueforcertainplayersbasedonhowthegameisexpectedtounfold.Forexample,ateamthatisexpectedtolosebyawidemargininagamewidelyexpectedtohaveahighpointtotalmighthaveagamescriptthatsaysthequarterbackisgoingtothrowmorepassesthanusualbecausehewillbeplayingfrombehindearly.Gamevariants:Typesofcontestsofferedbydailyfantasysportssites.Theyincludehead-to-headcontests,50/50s,qualifiers,multipliers,andguaranteedprizepool(GPP)contests.GPP:Standsfor“GuaranteedPrizePool.”Itisatypeoftournamentforwhichthedailyfantasysportssitepromisesaspecificprizepoolamounttobedividedamongthewinnersregardlessofentrycount.Theprizepoolisusuallylarge(e.g.$1million),asisthenumberofentrantsallowedtojoin.Prizestructurescanvarywidely,buttheTop10%to20%usuallywinsomething.Thesecontestssometimesfeatureanoverlaywhenthemaximumnumberofentriesisnotreached.

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Grinder:ADFSplayerwhoplaysdailyfantasysportstoearnaprofitinanylegitimatemannerpossible.Theyplayoften,managetheirbankroll,lookfor+EVsituationssuchasoverlays,andlooktomaximizereturnoninvestment(ROI)ontheirDFSplayatalltimes.HalfPPR:Afantasyfootballscoringmethodwhereaplayergetscreditedwithone-halffantasypointperreception.Head-to-head,H2H,orHeads-up:Atypeofcontestinwhichthereareonlytwoentrants.Thewinnertakestheprizepool,minusthehostsite'scommission.Hedge:Tooffsetpotentiallossesbyalsowageringonanopposingoutcome.Forexample,aDFSplayerwhoplaysasemi-injuredwidereceiverwithunknownplayingstatusinonecontestmightplayhisbackupinanothertomitigaterisk.Highstakescontests:Contestswithrelativelyhighentryfees,often$100ormore.Highlyexperiencedplayer(HEP)badges:Iconsnexttoplayernamesidentifyingtheirexperiencelevels.SeeSection2.5.2.Lateswap:AnoptiononsomeDFSsitestoswapoutaplayerinalineupafterthecontesthasstarted,butbeforethatplayer’sgamehasstarted.FanDueldoesnotallowlateswaps.Large-fieldcontest:Acontestthatpermitsanunusuallylargeorunlimitednumberofentrantstojoin.Lean:Ashort-termpreferencetowardagivenplayer,lineup,orcontest.AleanmayrepresentaDFSplayer’sfavoredchoicebetweentwoormoreplayers,suchasleaningtowardPlayerXoverPlayerY.Aleancanalsoreflectanexistingfondnessforaparticularlineuporcontest,asinleaningtowardLineupAoverLineupBorContest1overContest2.Lineuplock:Thetimeatwhichanentirelineupcannolongerbechanged.SitesthatallowlateswapslockinonlythoseplayerswhosegameshavestartedLotteryticket:Seedartthrow.Minimumsalary:ThelowestsalaryavailableforaparticulartypeofpositionalplayeronagivenDFSsite.Thesenumbersvaryfromsitetosite.Forexample,theminimumsalaryforawidereceiveris$4,500atFanDuel.Multi-entry,ormultipleentry:AcontestthatallowsmultipleentriesbyagivenDFSplayer.Themaximumnumberofentriesallowedperplayermayvaryamongcontests.

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Multi-positioneligibility,orMPE:Describesaplayerwhoiseligibletobeinsertedintoalineupatmorethanoneposition.Forexample,aWR/TEMPEplayercanbeusedaseitherawidereceiverortightend.Multiplier:Acontestwhichsetsitspayoutsasamultipleofitsentryfee.Forexample,thewinnersofa5xmultiplierearnfivetimestheirentryfee.Over/under,ortotal:ReferstothenumberprovidedbytheLasVegascasinosportsbookorothersportswageringvenuethatreflectstheexpectedtotalscoreofthecontest.Overlay:Manydailyfantasysportssiteshostguaranteedprizepooltournamentsinwhichaspecifiedamountofprizemoneyismadeavailabletothewinners.Thesitehopesthattheentryfeesfromtheparticipantswillcovertheprizepool.Iftherearetoofewentrants,theDFSsitemustcontributeitsowncashtocoverthedeficit.Thedeficitisknownastheoverlay.OverlaysarehighlydesirableeventsandDFSplayersshouldtargetthesevalueplays.Payingup:Deliberatelypayingapremiumtorosteranexpensiveplayerwhoisprojectedtoscorealotofpoints.DFSplayerswhowishtorosterhighlyregardedstudplayerstypicallymustpayuptodoso.Playerpool:ThetotalpopulationofplayersavailabletochoosefromforaDFSlineupatagivenDFSsite.Playerpropbet:AwagerofferedbyaVegassportsbookorothersportswageringvenuethatisbasedontheperformanceofanindividualplayer.Forexample,apropbetforawidereceivermaybesetatover/under99.5receivingyards.Thebettormaywagerthatthewidereceiverwillgainmoreorfewerthan99.5receivingyards.PropbetsareusefulinDFSasanestimateofexpectedplayerperformance.Intheexampleabove,awidereceiverwithanover/underpropbetsetat99.5receivingyardsisprojectedtogainapproximately100yardsreceivinginthatweek’sgame.PPR:Pointsperreception.Afantasyfootballscoringmethodwhereaplayerscoresfantasypointseachtimehecatchesapass.CommontypesofPPRscoringincludefullPPRandhalfPPR.Prizepool:Theentiresumofmoneyupforgrabsinadailyfantasysportscontest.Exceptforcontestswithoverlays,theamountofthepoolisequaltothesumoftheentryfeescollectedfromtheparticipantslesstheDFSsite’scommission.Pivot:AchangemadetoanexistingDFSlineup.Apivotmaybeintendedasacontrarianstrategytoincreasetheuniquenessofalineup—switchingfromachalkplayertoanothersimilarlypricedplayer,forinstance—ortoaccountforalateplayerinjuryordeactivation.

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Punt:Todisregardproductionatonepositionorstatisticinordertoallocatehigherspendingtoanother.Anentrantmightopttorostertop-salariedplayersatafewpositionswhileentrustingotherstoextremelylow-costoptions.Qualifier:Acontestinwhichthewinnersearnaseatatafuturecontest,typicallyonewitharelativelyhighentryfee.Seealsosatellite.QuintupleUp:AparticulartypeofDFScontestortournamentwherethewinnersareawardedaflatprizeoffivetimestheirentryfee.Thisquintuplestheirinitialinvestment,hencethequintuple-upor5xreferencetothesetypesofgames.Thelineuptypicallymustfinishinthetop18%ofthefieldtowintheprize.Rake:Seecommission.Recencybias:Thephenomenonofhigherorlowerownershipthatfollowsafteragivenplayerhasperformeddramaticallywellorpoorlyinrecentweeks.Reach:Inseason-longfantasyfootball,todraftaplayerconsiderablyearlierthanhewasexpectedtobedrafted.Inanauction,tobidconsiderablybeyondaplayer’swidelyacceptedvalue.InDFS,torosteraplayerwhoisunlikelytomeetorexceedthelevelofproductionimpliedbyhissalary.Regressiontothemean:ForDFSpurposes,regressiontothemeanisthetendencyforaplayer’sweeklyproductiontoapproachtheweeklyaverageofhisprojectedyearlyproductionoverthecourseofaseason.Forexample,anestablishedwidereceiverwhoaveragessixtouchdownsperseasonwilltendto“regresstothemean”afterscoringthreetouchdownsinonegame.ROI:Standsforreturnoninvestment.It’sgenerallyexpressedaseitheranabsoluteprofitamountorprofitpercentage:(winnings-entryfees)/entryfeesor(accountbalance-deposit)/deposit.Roster:ADFSlineup(noun),ortoaddaplayertoaDFSlineup(verb).RotoGrinders:Awebsitelocatedathttps://rotogrinders.com/thatprovidesinformationandtoolsforuseindailyfantasysports.Salarycap:ThetotalamountofmoneyDFSplayershaveattheirdisposaltoassembletheirlineupsinasingleDFScontestentry.Allteammanagershavethesamesalarycapandtheyusethesameplayersalariestoassembletheirteams.Thesalarycapvariesbysiteandsometimesbysport.Satellite:ADFStournamentwhoseprizeisanentrytoalargerDFStournament.Prizesaresometimesreferredtoas“tickets”towardthelargerDFStournament.Seealsoqualifier.

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Season-long:Fantasyconteststhatextendformost,ifnotall,oftheNFLregularseason.Thetypicalseason-longleaguesrunbetweenweeks1-16,thoughtheactualnumberofweekswillvarybyleague.Shark:AnexperiencedfantasyorDFSplayer,usuallyagrinder,whoknowshowtooptimizeDFSlineupsforcashgamesandtournaments.SharksrangefromtoughcompetitorstoDFSexpertstoprofessionalswhoearntheirlivingplayingDFS.Single-entry:DFStournamentsand/orconteststhatonlypermitonelineuptobeenteredperDFSplayer.Sleeper:AplayerwhohasthepotentialtoexceedhisexpectedvalueinaDFScontestwhileremainingunlikelytobewidelyrostered.Strategically,sleepershelpDFSplayerscreatemoreuniquelineupsandtheyareoftenconsideredcontrarianplays.Ontheotherhand,asleeperwhoiswidelydiscussed(“talkedup”)intherun-uptothecontesttendstolosetheiruniquenessasmoreandmoreDFSplayerstargetthemfortheirlineups.Spread:Alsoknownasthe“pointspread,”theprojectedscoredifferentialinagame.SeeVegasline.Stack(asahedge):AddingtwocomplementaryplayerstoaDFSlineupinanattempttoraisetheircombinedfloor.Forexample,itmayseemcounterintuitivetostackthestartingrunningbacksfromtwoteamsplayingeachotherhead-to-headinanNFLgame.Butconsiderthatwhileitisunlikelythatbothhavehugeperformancesinthesamegame,itisprobablethatatleastoneofthetwopostsasolidperformance.Stack(asahigh-risk,high-rewardplay):Rostering2-3playersfromthesameNFLteamwiththehopethatifoneplayerperformsextremelywell,thentheother1-2playerswillalsobenefit.Stackingisnormallydoneintournamentsasthisisahighvariance(i.e.“risky")waytobuildaroster.TypicalstacksareQB-WR,QB-TE,QB-WR-WR,QB-WR-TE,andRB-DEF,althoughsomeotherpermutationsdoexist.Stake:AfundingprocesswherebyaninvestormakesamonetaryinvestmentintoagivenDFSplayer’sbankrollinexchangeforapre-determinedpercentageofthatplayer’slong-termwinnings.Steps:SimilartoaBracketChallenge,astepsformatinvolvesmultiplecontests.DFSplayerscreatetheirrosterforthefirststepandthewinnersadvancetothenextstep.Thisprocessisrepeateduntiltheprizeisawardedatthefinalstep.Thestepsformatissimilartoasatellitequalifierexceptthistakesmorethanone“step”toqualifyforthefinaltournament.

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StudsandDuds,StudsandScrubs,orStarsandScrubs:ThecommontermforaDFSlineupconsistingofamixtureofstarandweakplayers.Thesalariesofthestarplayersforcetheotherrosterspotstobefilledwithplayersatornearminimumsalaryplayers,hencethe“duds”label.Inauctiondrafting,thisreferstothestrategyofpayingforafewhigh-costplayers,forcingownerstopaylowpricesfor“duds”laterinthedraft.SurvivorTournament:Amulti-contesttournamentformatthattypicallyattractsmanyentrants.Aspecifiedpercentageofthehighest-scoringDFSplayers“survive”eachweektocontinueontothenextround.AllsurvivingDFSplayerscreateanewrostereachweekuntilthetournamentiscomplete.Themajorityoftheprizepoolisawardedduringthefinalweekofthetournament.Sweat:Tofollowafriend'soracquaintance'scontestwithgreatinterestintheoutcome.Ticket:Theprizeofaqualifier(orsatellite)tournament.Thisticketprizegivesthewinneranentryintoabiggertournamentthatwouldcostmoretodirectlyenter.SometournamentsareonlyavailabletoDFScompetitorsthatwinatickettoenter.Tier:Agroupingofplayerswhoareconsideredtobeverysimilarintermsoftheirvalue.Playersinagiventiershouldclearlyprovidemorevaluethanthoseinthenexttierdownanddecidedlylessvaluethantheprevioustierup.Tilt:AslangtermusedtodescribeaperiodoftimewhenaDFSplayerpracticespoorjudgmentwithregardstobankrollmanagement,particularlyfollowingmultiplelosingefforts.Tournament:ADFScontestthatconsistsofalargefieldofDFScompetitors.Thetournamentcanbea50/50,multiplier(2x,3x,5x,etc.),oraGPPtournament.Train:Enteringmultipleidenticallineupsinatournament.Thishasextrariskandextrarewardallatonce,asthelikelihoodishighthatalloftheentrieswinorloseinthetournament.Thereisasmallchancesomewinandsomeloseifthelineupscoreisnearthecashcutoffforprizeawards.Triple-up:AparticulartypeofDFScontestortournamentwherethewinnersareawardedaflatprizeofthreetimestheirentryfee.Thistriplestheirinitialinvestment,hencethetriple-upor3xreferencetothesetypesofgames.Thelineuptypicallymustfinishinthetop30%ofthefieldtowintheprize.Upside:Atermdescribingtheupperportionofaplayer'srealisticrangeofproduction.Aboom/bustplayerhashighupsidebydefinition.Valueplayersincashgamesmayalsohaveupside,butnormallysomewhatlessthanboom/bustplayers.Seeceiling.

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Valueorsalarymultiplier:Aplayer’ssalarymultiplierisoftenusedasameasureofhisweeklyvalueinDFScontests.Thesalarymultipliercanbecalculatedbydividingaplayer’sprojectedfantasypointsfortheweekbyhisweeklysalarycapnumberinthousandsofdollars.Forexample,aplayerwouldrepresenta2xvalueonaweekwherehecosts$7,100againstthesalarycapandisprojectedtoscore14.2fantasypoints(14.2/7.1=2).Aplayerissaidto“representgoodvalue”ifhissalarymultiplierisgreaterthanthecommonlyacceptedvaluethresholdbasedonhisposition,thetypeofcontest,andtheDFSsite.Valueplay:Aplayerwhooffersgoodvaluebasedonprojectedfantasypointsinrelationtohissalarycapnumberfortheweek.Valuepick:Aplayerwhoisconsideredtobemorevaluablethanhissalaryimplies.Goodvaluescanoftenbefoundamongplayerscomingoffofabadstreakorarecentinjury.Inbothcases,theplayers’salariesareoftenlowerthantheyshouldbegivenhowproductivetheyhavebeenthroughouttheircareers.Vegasline:Referstothepointspreadsandover/undertotalsprovidedbytheLasVegascasinosportsbooksoneachNFLgame.The“pointspread”inaVegaslinereferstotheexpectedscoredifferentialofagivenNFLcontest,whereasthetotalor“over/under”reflectstheexpectedtotalscoreofthecontest.Viable:Aplayerwhohasastronglikelihoodofachievingvalueforacashgameisconsideredaviableoptionforthattypeoflineup.Tournamentlineupsusuallyhaveamuchlongerlistofviableplayers,astheyincludeplayerswhoarebothlikelytoreachvalueandalsocouldhaveabiggameundertherightcircumstances.Whale:ADFSplayerwhohasahugebankrollandiswillingtoplayatanypricepoint.Theseplayersoftenplayalargeramountofvolumeeachweek.

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Contributors

Editors

AllesandroMiglioMiglio@footballguys.comTwitter:@AlexMiglioAustinLeeLee@footballguys.comTwitter:@AustinNFLChrisFeeryFeery@footballguys.comTwitter:@cm_feery

DaveLarkinLarkin@footballguys.comTwitter:@davlar87DavidDoddsDodds@footballguys.comTwitter:@FBG_DoddsJeneBramelBramel@footballguys.comTwitter:@JeneBramel

MattBitontiBitonti@footballguys.comTwitter:@DraftDaddyMaurileTremblayTremblay@footballguys.comTwitter:@maurile

PhotosandGraphics

AllesandroMiglioMiglio@footballguys.comTwitter:@AlexMiglioAustinLeeLee@footballguys.comTwitter:@AustinNFL

DavidDoddsDodds@footballguys.comTwitter:@FBG_DoddsJeffPasquinoPasquino@footballguys.comTwitter: @JeffPasquino

CoverArt

KyleLebedaLebeda@footballguys.com

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Authors

AllesandroMiglioMiglio@footballguys.comTwitter:@AlexMiglioAustinLeeLee@footballguys.comTwitter:@AustinNFLBJVanderWoudeVanderWoude@footballguys.comTwitter:@SundayTzuChadParsonsParsons@footballguys.comTwitter:@ChadParsonsNFLChrisFeeryFeery@footballguys.comTwitter:@cm_feeryDanHinderyHindery@footballguys.comTwitter:@HinderyDavidDoddsDodds@footballguys.comTwitter:@FBG_DoddsDevinKnottsKnotts@footballguys.comTwitter:@ohiostate241JamesBrimacombeBrimacombe@footballguys.comTwitter:@JamesBrimacombeJeffPasquinoPasquino@footballguys.comTwitter:@JeffPasquino

JoeBryantBryant@footballguys.comTwitter:@Football_GuysJohnLeeJohn.Lee@footballguys.comTwitter:@TipandPickJohnMamulaMamula@footballguys.comJustinBonnemaBonnema@footballguys.comTwitter:@JustinBonnemaJustinHoweHowe@footballguys.comTwitter:@JustinhoweFFKyleWachtelWachtel@footballguys.comTwitter:@KyleWachtelMarkWimerWimer@footballguys.comTwitter:@mpwimerMaurileTremblayTremblay@footballguys.comTwitter:@maurilePhilAlexanderAlexander@footballguys.comTwitter:@PhilTWRRyanHesterHester@footballguys.comTwitter:@RyanHester13

SteveBuzzardBuzzard@footballguys.comTwitter:@SteveBuzzardWillGrantGrant@footballguys.comTwitter:@FBGWILL