© Copyright 2014, First Solar, Inc.

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Solar PV in 1954: “the technology of the future”

Yuma County, Arizona

Customer: NRG Energy & MidAmerican

Size: 290MW (AC)

Construction Time: 2010—2014

Acres: ~2,400

Modules: ~5 million

“Solar Project of the Year” — Renewable Energy World

2.0 Miles

3.0

Mile

s

San Luis Obispo County, California

Customer: MidAmerican

Size: 550MW (AC)

Construction Time: 2011—2015

Acres: ~7,800 site

Modules: ~9 million

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U.S. Utility Scale Installations (MW)

53 73 176

798

1,342

2,842 2,772 2,765 2,828

2,304

4,193

53 125 301 1,099 2,441

5,283

8,056

10,821

13,649

15,953

20,145

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cu

mu

lati

ve V

olu

me

(MW

)

An

nu

al V

olu

me

(MW

)

Utility-Scale (Annual)

Utility-Scale (Cumulative)

Source: IHS Global, Projects 5MW and higher are considered Utility Scale

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The Audacious Goal of 6c/kWh by 2020

From: Feb. 2014 DOE Progress Report: Advancing Solar Energy Across America Data courtesy of National Renewable Energy Lab. Chart by Daniel Wood.

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The Audacious Goal of 6c/kWh by 2020

From: Feb. 2014 DOE Progress Report: Advancing Solar Energy Across America Data courtesy of National Renewable Energy Lab. Chart by Daniel Wood.

-19%/Yr

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An Audacious Goal of 6c/kWh by 2020

From: Feb. 2014 DOE Progress Report: Advancing Solar Energy Across America Data courtesy of National Renewable Energy Lab. Chart by Daniel Wood.

-19%/Yr

2016

Total: 6 c/kWh

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Where are the Gains Coming From?

From: Feb. 2014 DOE Progress Report: Advancing Solar Energy Across America Data courtesy of National Renewable Energy Lab. Chart by Daniel Wood.

2016

Total: 6 c/kWh

?

-30%/Yr

-10%/Yr

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Module Price Curve

12

Module Price Curve

18 Yrs

13

Module Price Curve

18 Yrs

9 Yrs

14

Module Price Curve

18 Yrs Massive capacity

expansion (poly to module) 9 Yrs

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Where are the Gains Coming From?

From: Feb. 2014 DOE Progress Report: Advancing Solar Energy Across America Data courtesy of National Renewable Energy Lab. Chart by Daniel Wood.

2016

Total: 6 c/kWh

?

-30%/Yr

-10%/Yr

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Variable Components of LCOE

Based on First Solar estimates of LCOE components over time

2016

BoS–Variable 15%

Module 17% Financing

33%

Dev 8%

OpEx 15%

BoS–Fixed 12%

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Which Opportunities Should we get EXCITED About?

Based on First Solar estimates of LCOE components over time

• Energy Density (Efficiency and Yield)

• Installed Cost Financing

33%

Dev 8%

OpEx 15%

• Installed Cost • Losses

• Technical Risk (Prediction and Reliability)

• Policy

• Availability • Operations

BoS–Variable 15%

Module 17%

BoS–Fixed 12%

18 NREL

Funded Research

Established Technology Platform

19 NREL

Funded Research

Established Technology Platform

Pure Corporate R&D

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Power Grid

Opportunities for Innovation Abound

Real-time Controllers Satellite Imagery

Transformer

Inverters

PV Module Arrays

Combiner Boxes

Power Conversion Station (PCS) Photovoltaic Combining

Switchgear (PVCS) Substation

Plant SCADA system

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What Works - from an Industry perspective?

• Basic science at Universities and National Labs

— The seeds of technology innovation take patience to nurture (not what we’re good at)

• Support for radical and disruptive concepts (high risk, high reward)

— Cost share and infrastructure support to entrepreneurs and innovators

— Goals must be fundamentally disruptive, not incremental

• Independent validation to reduce perceived risk (and resulting FINANCE COSTS)

— Testing and evaluations

— Well designed technical standards

• Demonstrations addressing constraints to adoption

— Projects showing that perceived integration risks can be addressed

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What Doesn’t Work - from an Industry perspective?

• Incremental goals and innovation should be left to the private sector

— Let the market work

• Localization of manufacturing is driven by state and national industrial policy, not technology

— Competition for jobs is global

— Technology can kick-start, but not sustainable

• The “Red Light, Green Light” game

— Business and science both need predictability

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53 73 176 798 1,342

2,842 2,772 2,765 2,828 2,304

4,193

53 125 301 1,099 2,441

5,283 8,056

10,821 13,649

15,953 20,145

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Vo

lum

e (M

W)

An

nu

al V

olu

me

(MW

)

Utility-Scale (Annual)

Source: IHS Global, Projects 5MW and higher are considered Utility Scale

10% of Total Generation Capacity

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powered by clean, affordable solar electricity.

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