® copyright © 2000 by oss inc. all rights reserved 1 non-traditional threats georgetown university...

Copyright © 2000 by OSS Inc.All Rights Reserved

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Non-Traditional ThreatsNon-Traditional ThreatsGeorgetown UniversityGeorgetown University

21 September 200021 September 2000

Non-Traditional ThreatsNon-Traditional ThreatsGeorgetown UniversityGeorgetown University

21 September 200021 September 2000

[email protected]

People (Diplomacy)Regional Deference

Government (Justice)Home Front Defense

Military (Defense)911 Swarm Total Force


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®Conflict Facts for 2000

26 LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman


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Conflict Specifics for 1995-2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000HIC Levels Off

LIC Business is Good

Internal Political & Ethnic Violence Goes Through the Roof

High-Intensity Conflict Low-Intensity Conflict Internal War

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman


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3. Area ofEthnic Fault Lines 2000

Roughly 18 Genocides Today, 16 Emerging

Source: Dr. Greg Stanton


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Collateral Specifics for 2000Complex Emergencies29 Countries

Refugees/Displaced67 Countries

Food Security27 Countries

Child Soldiers42 Countries

Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising

Peacekeeping Forces18 UN, 20 Other

Landmines62 Countries

Torture Common94 Countries

Corruption Common78 Countries

Censorship Very High63 Countries

*State of the World Atlas (1997), all others from PIOOM Map


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Water & War

Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53

Hyper-Arid

Sub-Humid

Arid

Semi-Arid

Water Pollution

1

2

34

5

6


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I Think, Ergo I Save

I am constantly being asked for a bottom-line defense number. I don't know of any logical way to arrive at such a figure without analyzing the threat; without determining what changes in our strategy should be made in light of the changes in the threat; and then determining what force structure and weapons programs we need to carry out this revised strategy.

Senator Sam Nunn


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Four Threat Types

PHYSICAL

STEALTH,

PRECISION

TARGETING

NATURAL

STEALTH,

RANDOM

TARGETING

CYBER -

STEALTH,

DATABASE

TARGETING

IDEO -

STEALTH,

MASS

TARGETING

GUERRILLAWAR

CULTURALWAR

HIGH TECH

BRUTES

(MIC / HIC)

LOW TECH

BRUTES

(LIC)

HIGH TECH

SEERS

(C3I WAR)

LOW TECH

SEERS

(JIHAD)

MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS

POWER BASE

KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY

TERRORISMECONOMICWAR


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HIC/MRC1/3 leap forward*

1/3 anti-old technologies1/3 focus on people

SOLIC/LEA1/3 sensing technology*

1/3 peace/civil technology1/3 focus on people

IO/ECON1/3 electronic security*1/3 counterintelligence

1/3 economic intelligence

MINDWAR1/3 historical thinking1/3 cultural thinking1/3 strategic thinking

RMA in Context

*RMA today hits only 3 of 12 strategic investment needs.


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HIC/MRCCurrent: $276BNeeded: $286B

SOLIC/LEACurrent: $25BNeeded: $35B

IO/ECONCurrent: $5BNeeded: $10B

MINDWARCurrent: $25BNeeded: $45B

Spending Imbalances

*RMA today hits only 3 of 12 strategic investment needs.


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HIC/MRC80% of the DoD Budget

75% Active/25% Reserve75% USG/25% Private

SOLIC/LEA20% of the DoD Budget

50% Active 50% Reserve50% USG/50% Private

IO/ECON10% of the DoD Budget (+)50% Active/50% Reserve25% USG/75% Private

MINDWAR10% of the DoD Budget (+)25% Active/75% Reserve50% USG/50% Private

Transformative Spending


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1 + iii (four forces, four slices)

Intelligence + Strategy = Will

Support to Diplomatic Operations

SOLIC, PKO, and TCF

Global and Regional Conflict

ViolentStates

ViolentNon-States

Non-ViolentNon-States

Home Defense


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TIME IMPACT SHORT

TIME IMPACT

LONG

MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL

EQUITIES

SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION

EQUITIES

LEADERS DECIDE

PEOPLE DECIDE

TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL

SECRET SOURCES & METHODS

BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING

OPEN SOURCES & METHODS

OBVIOUS DETAIL

OBSCURE DETAIL

OLD

NEW

21st Century “C4I”


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Executive

Congress

Law Enforcement

Diplomacy

Military

Judiciary

Private Sector

AlliesNational Power

21st Century Civil-Military Relations


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From the Sea...


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Minimalist Budget Fixes

Program 50 Modifications• Kill 2+/JV 2010 (-5.0)

• Kill Missile Defense (-3.0)

• Kill new attack sub (-2.0)

• Kill Fancy TacAir (-5.0)

• Kill CVN & DD 21 (-5.0)

• Build 450-ship Navy (+5)

• Build the iii in 1+iii (+5)

• TOTAL: -10B/Year Net

Program 150 Increases• Digital Marshall Plan (+2)

• DGNI & GKF (+2)

• State Operations (+1)

• AIDx2 Water Focus (+2)

• Peace Corps x5 (+1)

• USIA + Culture (+1)

• NGO Subsidies (+1)

• TOTAL: +10B/Year


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450-Ship NavyACTUAL ACTUAL PLANNED DESIRED

U.S. Navy Ship Type 1987 Navy 1998 Navy 2010 Navy 2010 Navy Notes

Ballistic Submarines 37 18 14 15Attack Submarines 102 65 50 50Troop/Attack Submarines 0 0 0 15 1Aircraft Carriers (Blue Water) 14 12 12 8Aircraft Carriers (Littoral Ops) 0 0 0 4 2Battleships 3 0 0 2Cruisers 36 29 27 36Destroyers 69 50 73 59 3Expediters (Modified DDs) 0 0 0 25 4Frigates 115 38 16 33Amphibious Warfare Ships 63 40 36 36 5Patrol Craft/Brown Water Ops 6 13 14 75 6Mine Warfare Ships 22 16 26 20 7Combat Logistics Ships 56 39 18 18Mobile Logistics Ships 19 19 9 9Fleet Support Ships 24 11 7 7Strategic Auxiliaries 6 1 7 5Other (AGF-LCC) 14 11 9 9Assistance Ships (Large) 0 0 0 8 8Assistance Ships (Small) 0 0 0 8 8Hospital Ships (Large) 2 2 2 3 9Hospital Ships (Small) 0 0 0 5 9

USMC Focus (%) 11% 11% 11% 14%Littoral Focus (%) 5% 9% 13% 31%TOTAL SHIPS 588 364 320 450 0


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Presidential Trade-Offs$100 million will buy:

1 Big Platform (Air or Sea) or

1,000 Potential George Kennan’s or

10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or

1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water


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I Think, Ergo I Save

• Nature of War is Fundamentally Changed

• RMA/Net Assessments Fall Woefully Short

• Organization of Government Must Change

• Civil-Military-Reserve Triad Must Change

• Transformation through “Thinking People”

• National Security begins with Day-to-Day Good Will--Peace Corps, AID, USIA, State


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Online & Contact Information

Contract Information:

Mr. Robert D. Steele, CEOOPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS Inc.Post Office Box 369Oakton, VA 22124-0369Voice: (703) 242-1700Fax: (703) 242-1711Email: [email protected]: www.oss.net

Record copy of this brief with notes:

www.oss.net/Papers/white/Strategy.ppt

® copyright © 2000 by oss inc. all rights reserved 1 non-traditional threats georgetown university...

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