average annual growth rate 2000-10: 10% from 1990 to 2009, moved from net exporter of oil to...
TRANSCRIPT
The Two Giants: Energy Policy in China and the United States
Energy System - China
China’s boom
Average annual growth rate 2000-10: 10%
From 1990 to 2009, moved from net exporter of oil to world’s second largest net importer
World’s largest producer and consumer of coal –46% world’s coal consumption
Projected to be top importer by 2014
Electricity system - China
China - Coal
Economy size
US 16 trillion China 12 trillion and gaining
Population US: 316 million China 1.4 billion
Oil, Coal consumption – US v China
COAL
US 2012 – o.9 billion short tons (declining)
China 2012 – 4.0 billion short tons (rising)
OIL
US 2013 – 18.9 million bpd
China 2013 – 10.7 million bpd
Renewable share in electricity – US v China
CHINA 2012
Hydro – 22% capacity
Other renewables 6.2% capacity
US 2013
Hydro 6.6% energy 7.4% capacity (summer
2012) Other renewables
6.2% energy 7.2% capacity (summer
2012)
Growing share of global GHGs
China still modest per capita
Gilley: Authoritarian vs. Democratic Environmentalism
Authoritarian –concentrates authority in few executive agencies manned by capable and uncorrupt elites seeking to improve environmental outcomes
Democratic--spreads authority over several levels and agencies of government, including representative legislatures, and that encourages direct public participation from a wide cross-section of society
Gilley: Authoritarian Environmentalism in China
“Citizen participation is limited to learning and obeying state policies.” p. 291
“A Renewable Energy Law was completed in 2004 after fewer than nine months of drafting and then passed into law with no amendments by an unelected national legislature in 2005” p. 290
China – energy governance National Development and Reform
Commission (NDRC) -primary policymaking and regulatory authority in the energy sector,
National Energy Administration (NEA) (formed 2008) key energy regulator for the country approves new energy projects sets domestic wholesale energy prices implements central government's energy policies,
National Energy Commission (formed 2010) – coordinate energy policy among the various agencies under the State Council
China – National Oil Companies China National Petroleum Corporation
(CNPC) - leading upstream player in China publicly-listed arm PetroChina, together account for roughly 60 % domestic oil
and 80% natural gas output China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation
(Sinopec) downstream activities (refining and distribution)
China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC): offshore oil exploration and production
China GHG policy
Reduce emission intensity of GDP 40-45% by 2020 (over 2005 levels)
At Durban , China agreed to negotiate a legally binding treaty (including the possibility of an absolute emission cap) by 2020
Does authoritarian work?
Can produce a rapid response to problem
But if fragmentation remains, can undermine implementation due to illegitimacy Federalism issues
Low social concern makes authoritarianism more necessary and more difficult
US Energy Policy
US energy system Institutions Policy
US energy system (2011)
http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/pecss_diagram.cfm
US energy system 2012
US energy system
US energy system
US GHG emissions at 1996 levels
US governance
Federalism: gives extensive powers to 50 states
Separation of powers Congress▪ 2 equal chambers▪ House – 435 seat elected every 2 years▪ Senate – 2 seats per state elected every 6
years President – elected separately every 4
years Courts
US governance: extraordinary majorities
House: 50% +1 Senate: effective majority is 60% Treaties: 2/3rd of Senate requires President needs to sign laws passed
by Congress If president vetos, 2/3rd of both
houses can overturn
US governance: extraordinary majorities
Congress and president same party: working majority is 60%
Congress and president different party: working majority is 67%
Note contrast to Canada, China
Party Balance in Congress - Obama
2009-10 House and Senate Democratic
2011-2014 House Republican, Senate Democratic
Current Senate: 55 D – 45 R Current House: 201 D – 231 R
US energy policy history
1973 oil shock prompted Creation of Department of Energy 1977 Strategic Petroleum Reserve Corporate Average Fuel Economy
Standards Every president developed a plan
but little coherence
2013 Inaugural: We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations.
The path towards sustainable energy sources will be long and sometimes difficult. But America cannot resist this transition, we must lead it. We cannot cede to other nations the technology that will power new jobs and new industries, we must claim its promise. That’s how we will maintain our economic vitality and our national treasure -- our forests and waterways, our crop lands and snow-capped peaks. That is how we will preserve our planet, commanded to our care by God. That’s what will lend meaning to the creed our fathers once declared.
Automobile efficiency standards
2001 – US cars and trucks averaged 24.7 m.p.g.
2011 --29.6 m.p.g. New regs: up to 55 m.p.g. by 2025
Feb 2014: announces intention for new heavy duty vehicle standards
Sustainable Energy Policy 34
Obama agenda
Try Congress first – cap and trade Use administration action if that fails
Core focus on auto standards Emerging focus on coal▪ Strong standards on new plants▪ New coal plants essentially off the table
▪ New commitment to regulate existing plans, but timing uncertain
Climate Legislation - federal 2009 – House passes Waxman-Markey
17% reduction by 2020 Riddled with concession
2010 Senate Coalition building required giving everything away Coalition of senators fell apart when initiative got
framed as “gas tax” “on climate change, Obama grew timid and gave
up, leaving the dysfunctional Senate to figure out the issue on its own”
Personal impact
State initiatives: renewables
As of early 2014, 38 states have RPS or Alternative Energy Portfolio Standards; another six have voluntary standards (source)
California most aggressive – 33% by 2020
State initiatives - GHG
California leadership 1990 levels by 2020 (30% reduction) 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 Cap and trade program now in place
Reflections on Two Giants
Global leaders in power, energy, emissions
2/5 of global GHG emission Different stages on carbon path Chinese growth core driving force
emission intensity: >factor of 2 difference
Starkly different political systems If they cooperated, enormous
change possible Prospects for meaningful
cooperation?