Security of gas supply Gert-Jan Heerens

TNO - Energy

Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research “TNO”

Founded in 1932 by act of parliament Independent source of expertise Approximately 4.400 staff~ €580 M turnover

OUR MISSIONTo apply technological knowledge with the aim of strengthening the innovative power of industry and government

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TNO organization

6

Mechanics, Materials & Structures

Building Engineering & Civil Engineering

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High Performance Energetics

Advanced Concepts & Products

Process Modelling & Control

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Flow Control

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Envir. Sust. TransportTNO Technical Sciences

1-1-2011

Expertise groups Technical Science

Business focus Energy

Gas infrastructure• Production• Transport• Storage• Distribution

Security of gas supply; dealing with events

Consumers

Event

Event

Security of gas supply; dealing with events in war like scenarios

Prevention

Minimizing impact

Minimizing the effect of the impact

Defence / security

Defence / Energy

Energy

Expertise from:

Design and construct infrastructure

$Many requirements to be balanced:• Security of supply• Safety• Minimum environmental impact• At affordable costs• Capacity• Future developments, biogas.• Resilience, threats, failure• Storage• Legislation, regulation, tax• Technology, • …

Model based scenario analysis as part of the design process

Changes only possible with high investment.

Key aspect of scenario analysis to support the design for critical gas infrastructure:

• Provide comprehensive data to support decision making process.

“Inline” real time prediction of gas distribution in complex gas network systems.

The Gas Distribution Network in the Netherlands

Discovery of the largest natural gas field of Europe in 1959 (Groningen Field, 100 TCF)

led to a fine mazed gas distribution network supplying industry and practically all households with gas (currently 40 TCF reserves)

Current national policy aims at strengthening sustainable gas production (biogas production) in the network

High pressure pipelines in the Netherlands

Current Situation for Gas Distribution Providers

• Responsible for gas supply (at specified pressure) to its customers

• Single gas supplier

• Constant gas quality

• Predictable gas usage of industry and households67/40 bar

8 bar

4 bar

8 or 4 or1 bar

100/30 mbar

New Developments for Gas Distribution Providers

• Local biogas providers feed into the network

• Variable Demand (Dynamic)• Local heat generation• Local power generation

(coupling E and G markets)

• More flexible Gas Supply Market

• Green for Grey Government Policy

• Increased Gas Quality bandwidth

• Higher uptime

67/40 bar

8 bar

4 bar

8 or 4 or1 bar

100/30 mbar

Biogas Feed

Solution: Direction Decision Center

One-Column Format

Paper SPE 160748 “Prediction and dynamic operation of gas distribution networks” R.J.P. van der Linden

Old

New

Decision Center Tasks • Network Monitoring of

• Pressure, flow, Voltage, Current• Transport quality (delivery reliability)• Gas quality• Network quality

• Event handling

• Short Term Forecasting with multiple scenarios

• Maintenance planning and control

• Balancing

Slide 17

Monitoring, Prediction and Balancing the Gas Network

• Need of a real-time network prediction model

• Available Models and Tools are developed for network capacity design (not real-time, no real-time field input, …)

Slide 18

New dynamic simulation versus linear calculations

Slide 19

• TNO developed software for dynamic simulation of (plant) networks (PULSIM)

• Includes mass, impulse and energy balance• Includes models for compressor machinery

Real-Time Network Simulation Base Case (Regional Ne twork)

Slide 20

Several hundreds km of pipelines, 254 stations, >8000 users, 81000 pipe segments

Flow Prediction for two scenarios

Slide 23

Normal Situation Pipe out of operation north of de Koog

Role of the Real Time simulation in Decision Suppo rt

Slide 24

Meteo

Controls

Demand Pattern

SupplyPattern

Netwerk events

Planned(Maintenance)

Unplanned(Failures)

Operational Network

Netoperator-BC

Sensors Operator Support

Modellen

Data >information

Prediction

Diagnostics

Balancing

Proces

Actie

Advice (4-24-48 h)

Status

HistoriandatabaseData

Performance

MPCCustomers

Paper SPE 160748 “Prediction and dynamic operation of gas distribution networks” N.E. Ligterink & R.J.P. van der Linden

Conclusion

• A fast simulator was developed for prediction flow, pressure and gas mixture composition at any point in a gas distribution network

• Enables real-time prediction of network behavior

• Designed for use in an operator support system,

• Enables to scenario analysis for cost effective design.

• Tested with off-line data of a regional network and a communal network

• Current developments:• Pilot implementation (2013)

• Can support war like scenarios

Slide 25

Paper SPE 160748 “Prediction and dynamic operation of gas distribution networks” N.E. Ligterink & R.J.P. van der Linden

Gas network dealing with events war like scenario’s

Prevention

Minimizing impact

Minimizing the effect of the impact

Defence / security

Defence / Civil

Civil

27

Mechanics, Materials & Structures

Building Engineering & Civil Engineering

Communication & Information

Physics & Electronics

Fluid Mechanics Chemistry & Energetics

Flow & Structural Dynamics

High Performance Energetics

Advanced Concepts & Products

Process Modelling & Control

Separation Technology

Flow Control

Innovative Materials

Instrumentation

Power Trains

Space & Science

Radar

Transceivers

Nano-instrumentation

Acoustics

Optics

Computer Vision

Intelligent Imaging

Distributed Sensor Systems

Sonar

Electronic Defence

Corrosion & Anti-fouling

Lab for Ballistic Research

Weapon Systems

Materials Performance

Holst

Multilayer Devices

Rapid manufacturing

Precision Motion Systems

Personal Monitoring

Vehicle Dynamics

Mechanical & Maritime Constructions

Greenhouse Fieldlab

Building Innovation

Structural Assessment & Building Lab

Energy, Comfort & Indoor Quality

Cooling and Heating Systems

Business Information Services

Service Enabling & Management

Security

Multimedia Technology

Planning, Performance & Quality

Connectivity

Access Network Technology

Vibrations & Noise

Building Materials

Material Performance, Risk & Reliability

Network & Service Control

Envir. Sust. TransportTNO Technical Sciences

1-1-2011

Cross fertilisation, combine expertise's.

Defence ��Ènergy

Materials Gas physicsMech

design

29

Events: Accidents and terroristic threats

30

Terroristic Attacks on LNG tankers and storages

• Risk assessment• Damage extent for all weapon effects• Cascading effects• Passive & active counter measures

Close-in explosion

Gas leakage scenarioGas dispersion (source and weather conditions)Gas explosion overpressure

TNO CFD code AutoReagas

31

Calculation of pressures from gas-explosions,

pres

sure

32

Various application scales, distances and materials

33

Blast study (SBM) for topside structure

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Structure under blast load (study for Bluewater and vanDam)

• New advanced blast walls to withstand higher pressures

from more gas throughput (FLNG)

• Effective (low mass and cost) design of blast walls by means of

developed failure mechanisms in FEM

• Check of existing structure and components under blast load

35

Test facilities

GEC (Schaik)

LBR (Ypenburg)

Blast simulator (Rijswijk)

Front End Engineering & Design study – TNO’s contribution / support

Gas leakage dispersion & gas explosion overpressure

Risk analysis

Piping arrangement & deck layout

Position of blast walls

Choice and Development of blast walls & blast doors

Transient structural response due to blast (Siemens)

PFP (passive fire protection) optimisation

7/12/2013

36

Innovation according to some others….