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1/5/09 5:42 PMBlu-ray Format Struggles With Uncertain Prospects - NYTimes.com
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Supporters say Blu-ray had abreakout year, crowned by “The DarkKnight,” which sold 600,000 Blu-raycopies in one day.
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Blu-ray is returning to the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, where last year it won the DVD format war.By MATT RICHTEL and BRAD STONEPublished: January 5, 2009
The biggest news at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas last
January was not the birth of a new product but the death of one.
A decision by Warner Brothers to
withdraw support for the HD DVD
video disc format sent shock waves
through the electronics industry and
appeared to hand the future of home
entertainment to Blu-ray, a rival
format.
The move set the stage for this year’s Consumer
Electronics Show, which starts Wednesday under the dark
cloud of a recession and a sharp downturn in consumer
spending. Nearly two million square feet of convention
hall will be stocked with the latest mobile phones,
portable music players, digital cameras and expensive flat-
screen televisions.
But many eyes will be on Blu-ray, which for the first time
has the floor largely to itself as the heir apparent to the
DVD. Over the last decade, DVD players and discs have generated tens of billions of
dollars for Hollywood and the consumer electronics industry, so the pressure for a
blockbuster sequel is high.
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1/5/09 5:42 PMBlu-ray Format Struggles With Uncertain Prospects - NYTimes.com
Page 2 of 4http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/technology/05bluray.html?_r=1
This year will be crucial for the new format. Heavy holiday discounting and the natural
decline in electronics prices over time have pushed prices for some Blu-ray players
under $200, a drop of well more than half in the last few years — and into the realm of
affordability for many. At the same time, Blu-ray’s backers, including Sony and the Walt
Disney Company, face a growing chorus of skeptics that says the window for a high-
definition disc format may be closing fast.
One reason is that discs of all kinds may become obsolete as a new wave of digital media
services starts to flow into the living room. On Monday, for example, the Korean
television maker LG Electronics plans to announce a new line of high-definition
televisions that connect directly to the Internet with no set-top box required. The
televisions will be able to play movies and television shows from online video-on-
demand services, including Netflix.
“The Blu-ray format is in jeopardy simply because the advent of downloadable HD
movies is so close,” said Roger L. Kay, president of Endpoint Technologies Associates. a
research and consulting company. “Streaming video from the Internet and other means
of direct digital delivery are going to put optical formats out of business entirely over the
next few years.”
Blu-ray’s supporters have another view. They say the technology had a breakout year,
crowned by the holiday success of “The Dark Knight,” which sold 600,000 Blu-ray copies
in one day. They also say that Blu-ray players are selling faster than DVD players did at
a comparable time in their emergence.
“What we saw in 2008 was increasing adoption of Blu-ray along with decreasing
hardware prices,” said Reed Hastings, the chief executive of Netflix, which has persuaded
more than half a million members to pay an extra dollar a month to rent Blu-ray discs.
“The window of opportunity for DVD and Blu-ray discs is longer than most people think.
But it’s not going to last forever.”
The Consumer Electronics Association predicts that North American consumers will
spend $1.3 billion on Blu-ray players in 2009, outpacing the projected $1.2 billion that
will be spent on regular DVD players, although Blu-ray players are two to three times
more expensive.
Last year “was a launching pad, and 2009 is going to be our growth year,” said Andy
Parsons, the chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association, a consortium of the format’s
backers. “We think this year we’ll start to see the format really take off into the mass
market.”
But evidence exists that many people either do not know enough about Blu-ray to buy or
do not think the more expensive players and discs are worth the extra investment.
Going from the whirring VCRs of yore to a DVD player was a big leap in picture quality
and convenience, while the jump from DVD to Blu-ray is subtler, at least for those who
do not have the latest and largest high-definition televisions.
Americans are still expected to buy more standard DVD players next year than Blu-ray
players, according to the Consumer Electronics Association. People like Erik Swenson, a
37-year-old interior designer in San Francisco, represent one reason. “I’ve heard of Blu-
ray, but I don’t know much about it,” he said, shopping last week at a Best Buy for a
DVD player. “I’m a little behind with this tech stuff.”
Blu-ray’s backers acknowledge that they have a tougher sell with Blu-ray than they did
with DVD, particularly in light of the sour economy.
“Satisfaction with DVD is very high, and sales figures for the DVD, though the market is
contracting, are very strong,” said Chris Fawcett, vice president for the home audio and
video division of Sony Electronics, which has lowered growth projections for Blu-ray to
account for the downturn in consumer spending.
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1/5/09 5:42 PMBlu-ray Format Struggles With Uncertain Prospects - NYTimes.com
Page 3 of 4http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/05/technology/05bluray.html?_r=1
More Articles in Technology »A version of this article appeared in print on January 5, 2009, on pageB1 of the New York edition.
But Mr. Fawcett also said that technology companies, electronics makers, movie studios
and retailers have made a significant investment in developing and promoting the
format and are largely united in their determination to see it succeed.
That commitment has been on display recently. In November, a group of studios and
electronics manufacturers began a $25 million barrage of television commercials, using
the theme “Tru Blu” and promoting Blu-ray as “the best way to watch movies at home.
Ever.”
On Black Friday, the crucial shopping day after Thanksgiving, electronics manufacturers
coordinated with retailers to heavily discount Blu-ray players. As a result, sales surged.
The continued push for Blu-ray will be a central theme at the Consumer Electronics
Show, as manufacturers introduce new players and continue to cut prices on older
models. Analysts say they expect companies to announce more support for a feature
called BD Live (as in Blu-ray disc live), which lets people download additional material
from the Internet and interact with friends in text chats that appear on the television
while playing a movie.
Consumers must buy adapters to bring most Blu-ray players online, though devices to be
unveiled at the show may have Internet access built in.
Integrating the Internet may be a matter of survival for Blu-ray, because the Internet is
shaping up to be its biggest rival. More services are popping up that let people download
high-definition movies and shows directly to their televisions and home computers.
There are 1,092 discs available in Blu-ray format, mostly new movies like “The Dark
Knight” and “Wall-E.” Apple’s iTunes Store introduced high-definition movies a year ago
and already has 600 titles available to rent or download. A similar Internet-connected
box, Vudu, can access about 1,400 high-definition films.
“When Vudu popped up and had more high-definition movies than Blu-ray, it was a
warning sign,” said Rob Enderle, president of the Enderle Group, which advises
technology companies like Microsoft and Toshiba. “I think Blu-ray can sustain itself as a
transition technology, but, at the end of the day, I don’t think it will ever replace the
DVD.”
Still, for some consumers, nothing beats the crisp, clear picture of a Blu-ray disc. “It’s a
huge difference,” said Gary Tsang, 31, a computer network engineer in San Francisco
who bought a $299 Blu-ray player in October and was among the shoppers who rushed
out to buy “The Dark Knight” last month.
Mr. Tsang added that Blu-ray made a real difference only when viewed on a good high-
definition television, like the one his family bought in February for $2,700. “We’re not
bleeding edge, but we’re cutting edge.”
Download the historic Nov. 5 issue of The New York Times Electronic Edition.
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