© 2010 evalueserve, ltd. all rights reserved - privileged and confidential ip valuation april 2010...
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© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and Confidential
IP Valuation
April 2010
Dr. Rahul Verma, Assistant Vice President,
Intellectual Property and Legal Support [email protected]
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 2
Presentation Plan
Case StudyCase Study
AppendixAppendix
IP Valuation OverviewIP Valuation Overview
IP Valuation ApproachesIP Valuation Approaches
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 3
Presentation Plan
Case StudyCase Study
AppendixAppendix
IP Valuation OverviewIP Valuation Overview
IP Valuation ApproachesIP Valuation Approaches
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 4
• The Indian biotechnology industry is estimated to be more than USD 2.6 billion. This accounts for about 3% of the global biotechnology sector.
• The revenues for the industry have grown from Rs. 2,345 crores in 2002 – 03 to Rs. 12,137 crores in 2008 – 09.
• It can be divided into the following five segments: BioPharma, BioServices, BioAgriculture, BioIndustrial and BioInformatics.
• The Indian biotechnology industry is estimated to be more than USD 2.6 billion. This accounts for about 3% of the global biotechnology sector.
• The revenues for the industry have grown from Rs. 2,345 crores in 2002 – 03 to Rs. 12,137 crores in 2008 – 09.
• It can be divided into the following five segments: BioPharma, BioServices, BioAgriculture, BioIndustrial and BioInformatics.
Sources: Link1, Link2, Link3
Biotechnology Industry in India (1/2)
BioPharmaBioPharma
• Includes medicines prepared by recombinant DNA technology
• Revenue – Rs. 7,883 crores in 2008 – 09
• Includes medicines prepared by recombinant DNA technology
• Revenue – Rs. 7,883 crores in 2008 – 09
BioServicesBioServices
• Includes clinical research, contract research organizations and custom manufacturing
• Revenue – Rs. 2,062 crores in 2008 – 09
• Includes clinical research, contract research organizations and custom manufacturing
• Revenue – Rs. 2,062 crores in 2008 – 09
BioAgricultureBioAgriculture
• Includes manufacturing commodities for human and livestock consumption
• Revenue – Rs. 1,494 crores in 2008 – 09
• Includes manufacturing commodities for human and livestock consumption
• Revenue – Rs. 1,494 crores in 2008 – 09
BioIndustrialBioIndustrial
• Includes enzyme manufacturing
• Revenue – Rs. 478 crores in 2008 – 09
• Includes enzyme manufacturing
• Revenue – Rs. 478 crores in 2008 – 09
BioInformaticsBioInformatics
• Includes computer software tools for data management, database creation, data mining and data warehousing
• Revenue – Rs. 220 crores in 2008 – 09
• Includes computer software tools for data management, database creation, data mining and data warehousing
• Revenue – Rs. 220 crores in 2008 – 09
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 5
• Apart from the above mentioned five sectors of the Indian biotechnology industry, there are other emerging sectors like Biosimilars, Nanotechnology and Stem Cell Research.
• Biosimilars – This includes biotechnology-based drugs similar to biologic drugs that enter the market after the innovator drug goes off patent. The biosimilars market in India is expected to reach USD 2 billion in 2014.
• Stem Cell Research – This market is expected reach USD 540 million in 2010.
• Apart from the above mentioned five sectors of the Indian biotechnology industry, there are other emerging sectors like Biosimilars, Nanotechnology and Stem Cell Research.
• Biosimilars – This includes biotechnology-based drugs similar to biologic drugs that enter the market after the innovator drug goes off patent. The biosimilars market in India is expected to reach USD 2 billion in 2014.
• Stem Cell Research – This market is expected reach USD 540 million in 2010.
Biotechnology Industry in India (2/2)
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 6
The On-Off Evolution Matrix
Business Outsourcing OpportunityBusiness Outsourcing Opportunity
Tec
hnol
ogy
Out
sour
cing
O
ppor
tuni
ty
Tec
hnol
ogy
Out
sour
cing
O
ppor
tuni
ty
NoNo YesYes
NoNo
YesYes
In-houseOn Shore R&D Centers
On-Shore Markets
In-houseOn Shore R&D Centers
On-Shore Markets
CaptivesOff-Shore R&D CentersOn/Off-Shore Markets
CaptivesOff-Shore R&D CentersOn/Off-Shore Markets
Licensing/Marketing Partnerships
On-Shore R&D CentersOff-Shore Markets
Licensing/Marketing Partnerships
On-Shore R&D CentersOff-Shore Markets
Technology ScoutingOff-Shore Technology
PartnersOn/Off-Shore Markets
Technology ScoutingOff-Shore Technology
PartnersOn/Off-Shore Markets
Borderless Innovation
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 7
The Chindia Story
• In 2009 – Despite global economic downturn, the Chinese Patent Office (SIPO) received a total of 976,686 patent applications, with a growth rate of 18% over the previous year.
• During 1999 – 2009: About five million patent applications were filed
• If the current growth rates remain the same, China will surpass the US in 2012 with respect to the invention patent application filings
• In 2009 – Despite global economic downturn, the Chinese Patent Office (SIPO) received a total of 976,686 patent applications, with a growth rate of 18% over the previous year.
• During 1999 – 2009: About five million patent applications were filed
• If the current growth rates remain the same, China will surpass the US in 2012 with respect to the invention patent application filings
ChinaChina
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 09
Invention Utility Model Design
• 20-21% annual increase in patent filing
• IP awareness is spreading among Indian companies
• IPR reforms reflect seriousness of the government
• 20-21% annual increase in patent filing
• IP awareness is spreading among Indian companies
• IPR reforms reflect seriousness of the government
IndiaIndia
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
No
. of
Pat
ent
Ap
pls
Year
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 8
The patent filing in India has been on the rise in the last few years. The Figure below illustrates the increase in the filing activity in various technical fields of the life science domain over the last five years.
Patenting trends in India
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 9
India ranks 30th out of 134 countries on Prevalence of Foreign Technology Licensing
Two Perspectives of Technology Licensing in Indian ContextTwo Perspectives of Technology Licensing in Indian Context
MNCs partnering with Indian companies
with innovations
MNCs partnering with Indian companies
with innovations
MNCs entering the Indian market
MNCs entering the Indian market
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 10
MNCs partnering with Indian companies with innovations
MNCs partnering with Indian companies with innovations
• Imtech licensed a new drug molecule to Nostrum Pharmaceutical for USD 3 million in 2009.
• Imtech, a CSIR laboratory licensed a clot-busting therapeutic protein to US-based Nostrum Pharmaceutical for USD 20 million in 2006
• Shasun, Indian drug manufacturing firm, sign non-exclusive license with Merck.
• Indoco Remedies Ltd., a Mumbai-based generic company, announced a technology licensing agreement to produce generics with Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Watson will file an ANDA for US FDA approval.
• Pfizer entered into licensing agreements with India’s Strides Arcolab, Aurobindo and Claris LifeSciences for supply of generic products and injectibles
• Imtech licensed a new drug molecule to Nostrum Pharmaceutical for USD 3 million in 2009.
• Imtech, a CSIR laboratory licensed a clot-busting therapeutic protein to US-based Nostrum Pharmaceutical for USD 20 million in 2006
• Shasun, Indian drug manufacturing firm, sign non-exclusive license with Merck.
• Indoco Remedies Ltd., a Mumbai-based generic company, announced a technology licensing agreement to produce generics with Watson Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Watson will file an ANDA for US FDA approval.
• Pfizer entered into licensing agreements with India’s Strides Arcolab, Aurobindo and Claris LifeSciences for supply of generic products and injectibles
MNCs entering the Indian marketMNCs entering the Indian market
• Evolving Indian market and customer feel the need for advanced and world-class products and services
• Automatic permission for foreign technology agreements in a few industries
• CSIR has signed a MOU with San people of South Africa for commercialization of Hoodia, as a blockbuster anti-obesity drug.
• Eisai, a Japanese pharma major to set up manufacturing and research base in India.
• Evolving Indian market and customer feel the need for advanced and world-class products and services
• Automatic permission for foreign technology agreements in a few industries
• CSIR has signed a MOU with San people of South Africa for commercialization of Hoodia, as a blockbuster anti-obesity drug.
• Eisai, a Japanese pharma major to set up manufacturing and research base in India.
Foreign Technology Licensing in India
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 11
Presentation Plan
Case StudyCase Study
AppendixAppendix
IP Valuation OverviewIP Valuation Overview
IP Valuation ApproachesIP Valuation Approaches
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 12
Increased focus of industry and markets on knowledge-based market
Source – Ned Davis Research
Components of S&P 500 Market Value
83%68%
32%20%
17%32%
68%80%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1975 1985 1995 2005
Years
Tangible Assets Intangible Assets
Growing Importance of IP Valuation
• There is an increasing need for shifting research focus from valuing tangible assets to valuing intangible assets.
• There is an increasing need for shifting research focus from valuing tangible assets to valuing intangible assets.
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 13
Monetizing IP – Patents
Patent Monetizing IdeasPatent Monetizing Ideas
Aggressive Marketing of Products
Aggressive Marketing of Products
Patents as a Business Concept
Patents as a Business Concept
Portfolio of Stocks with Strong Patent
Portfolio
Portfolio of Stocks with Strong Patent
Portfolio
Adobe markets its key
product, Adobe Reader
7.0, with 51 utility US
patents, 4 US design
patents, and patent
pending legal notices
A 2002 study by the
Equipment Leasing and
Finance Foundation
listed the market value of
patent-based licenses at
USD 1 trillion in the US
Ocean Tomo 300™
Patent Index, the first
equity index based on
the value of corporate IP
of 300 diversified
companies, was
launched in 2006; it is
published by Amex
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 14
Licensing DealsLicensing Deals
Small and Medium Enterprises in Hi-Tech Domains
• Pharmaceutical Companies
• Electronics and Computer Hardware Firms
Small and Medium Enterprises in Hi-Tech Domains
• Pharmaceutical Companies
• Electronics and Computer Hardware Firms
Sale of IPSale of IP • IP Brokerage Firms and Medium-Sized Enterprises• IP Brokerage Firms and Medium-Sized Enterprises
M&A DealsM&A Deals• Consulting Firms
• Investment Banks
• Private Equity Funds
• Consulting Firms
• Investment Banks
• Private Equity Funds
Infringement Lawsuits
Infringement Lawsuits
• Infringement Support Law Firms
• Plaintiff/Defendant
• Infringement Support Law Firms
• Plaintiff/Defendant
Financing/Securitization
Financing/Securitization
• Banks
• Private Equity Funds
• VCs
• Banks
• Private Equity Funds
• VCs
Context for IP Valuations
Tax/Financial Reporting
Tax/Financial Reporting • Any• Any
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 15
• Patent and product valuation go hand in hand. To estimate the value of a patent or product, knowledge about the related product or patent and the associated market/legal boundaries is helpful.
• Patent and product valuation go hand in hand. To estimate the value of a patent or product, knowledge about the related product or patent and the associated market/legal boundaries is helpful.
Patent Valuation and Product Valuation
Patent ValuationPatent Valuation
• Valuation methods, particularly early in the life of a patentable idea
• Lifecycle of a patent
• Future and uncertainties of the technology, e.g., new and ongoing research, lifecycle/term of a patent, and income attributable to a patent
• Legal issues on jurisdictions
• Valuation methods, particularly early in the life of a patentable idea
• Lifecycle of a patent
• Future and uncertainties of the technology, e.g., new and ongoing research, lifecycle/term of a patent, and income attributable to a patent
• Legal issues on jurisdictions
Product ValuationProduct Valuation
• Valuation methods, before launching a product in the market
• Cost of OEMs
• Future and uncertainties of the product market, e.g., growth trends, lifecycle of a product and competing products available in the market
• The whole world is a potential market
• Valuation methods, before launching a product in the market
• Cost of OEMs
• Future and uncertainties of the product market, e.g., growth trends, lifecycle of a product and competing products available in the market
• The whole world is a potential market
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 16
Factors for IP Valuations of Biotechnology Invention
Novelty of the technology
Competitive technologies/products in the domain
Benefits of the technology over the competing technologies
IP Landscape in the domain
Regulatory requirements
Efficacy of the product
Target Market
Market acceptance
Cost of the product
Marketing Strategy
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 17
Process Flow in a Typical IP Valuation
• How powerful is the IP in terms of the existing IP
• Will it sustain an invalidation attempt by competitors
• How does the IP fare in comparison with competing technologies, in terms of major advancement or minor adjustment
AssessingIP-Centric Factors
AssessingIP-Centric Factors
• How broadly does the IP claim
• In which jurisdiction is the IP applicable
• What is the remaining life of the IP
• Are there any risks associated with government rules with the IP
IdentifyingMarket for IPIdentifying
Market for IP
• What is the market for the technical domain in the specific jurisdiction
• What is the growth trend of the market
• What is the lifecycle of the IP
Building Valuation Model
Building Valuation Model
• What is the discount rate for the DCF modeling
• How sensitive is the value on the estimations used in the model
Assessing IP Strength
Assessing IP Strength
• Understand how is the IP different from other existing IP in the market
• What are the competing companies and technologies
• What does the IP uniquely add to the market
• What factors of market demand does it satisfy
Understanding IP
Understanding IP
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 18
Approaches for IP Valuation
ComparableApproach
ComparableApproach
Cost Approach
Cost Approach
Income ApproachIncome
Approach
Valuation ApproachesValuation Approaches
Value Estimate
Multiples or prices of
market transactions
involving the sale of
comparable IP
Value Estimate
Reproduction/ replacement
cost adjusted for
depreciation and
obsolescence
Value Estimate
Present value of earnings
attributable to the IP or
costs avoided as a result
of owning the IP
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 19
Comparables Approach
Approach usage rationaleApproach usage rationale
• Comparing the IP to comparable assets recently exchanged under similar circumstances
• Comparing the IP to comparable assets recently exchanged under similar circumstances
Disadvantage Disadvantage
• Finding a comparable asset in same technology domain as the IP to be valued can be difficult
• Comparing two different IPs, even the ones in the same domain can be difficult
• Finding a comparable asset in same technology domain as the IP to be valued can be difficult
• Comparing two different IPs, even the ones in the same domain can be difficult
Advantage Advantage
• Comparatively simpler method of valuation• Comparatively simpler method of valuation
ProcessProcess
• Establish IP comparability: type of asset, industry relevance, geographical constraints, timeframe, financial characteristics of underlying operations
• Locating similar licensing deals
• Establish IP comparability: type of asset, industry relevance, geographical constraints, timeframe, financial characteristics of underlying operations
• Locating similar licensing deals
This method is very easy to use and estimates the value of IP based on past occurrences
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 20
Cost Approach
Approach usage rationaleApproach usage rationale
• Determine the value of patent by aggregating the costs involved in its development
• Determine ‘Reproduction Cost’ to reproduce the same asset
• Determine the value of patent by aggregating the costs involved in its development
• Determine ‘Reproduction Cost’ to reproduce the same asset
Disadvantage Disadvantage
• Cost based approach provides a benchmark for management to control cost of development and not a fair value of the IP
• The data is not publicly available
• Cost based approach provides a benchmark for management to control cost of development and not a fair value of the IP
• The data is not publicly available
Advantage Advantage
• It is a simple method
• It is easy to use
• It is a simple method
• It is easy to use
ProcessProcess
• Collect and analyze IP R&D cost client data
• Review comparable cost data of similar IPs
• Identify direct cost and multiples for allocation of indirect cost
• Prepare a cost sheet for the IP R&D project
• Collect and analyze IP R&D cost client data
• Review comparable cost data of similar IPs
• Identify direct cost and multiples for allocation of indirect cost
• Prepare a cost sheet for the IP R&D project
This method is useful in identifying the floor value of IP
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 21
Income Approach
Approach usage rationaleApproach usage rationale
• Establish ability of patent to generate economic benefits over the property’s useful life
• When discount rate for the IP can be known with certainty but not cash flows
• Establish ability of patent to generate economic benefits over the property’s useful life
• When discount rate for the IP can be known with certainty but not cash flows
Disadvantage Disadvantage
• Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) is a static model
• It only captures the expected cash flows and does not account for uncertainty
• Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) is a static model
• It only captures the expected cash flows and does not account for uncertainty
Advantage Advantage
• Gives a very objective value of the IP in relation to the market
• Gives a very objective value of the IP in relation to the market
ProcessProcess
• Proportion of the revenue attributable to the subject IP
• Estimating size and growth rate of relevant industry
• Estimate revenue, risk and growth associated with the IP proportion of the revenue attributable to the subject IP
• Application of DCF, Monte Carlo and option pricing techniques
• Proportion of the revenue attributable to the subject IP
• Estimating size and growth rate of relevant industry
• Estimate revenue, risk and growth associated with the IP proportion of the revenue attributable to the subject IP
• Application of DCF, Monte Carlo and option pricing techniques
This method is useful in identifying the intrinsic value of IP
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 22
Presentation Plan
Case StudyCase Study
AppendixAppendix
IP Valuation OverviewIP Valuation Overview
IP Valuation ApproachesIP Valuation Approaches
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 23
Case Study*: How do we actually value a patent?
What is patented?What is patented?
• A biosimilar drug molecule for treatment of autoimmune diseases.
• A biosimilar drug molecule for treatment of autoimmune diseases.
Objective and NeedObjective and Need
• You need to present the patented idea to a pharmaceutical company to sell the patent.
• They are already convinced that there is a market that can be tapped.
• You need to identify the target market and what value should you go to the negotiation table with.
• You need to present the patented idea to a pharmaceutical company to sell the patent.
• They are already convinced that there is a market that can be tapped.
• You need to identify the target market and what value should you go to the negotiation table with.
What methodology will you follow to identify the price of the patent?
What methodology will you follow to identify the price of the patent?
• Assess the strength of IP and the competing IP in the space
• Identify market targeted by the IP based on IP centric parameters
• Identify licensing amount
• Assess the strength of IP and the competing IP in the space
• Identify market targeted by the IP based on IP centric parameters
• Identify licensing amount
*: Indicative numbers have been used in this case study*: Indicative numbers have been used in this case study
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 24
• The market size was calculated to be more than USD 9 bilion in 2013. The calculation is based on the market for the original drug of which biosimilar has been invented.
• The market figures were confirmed by surveys with Subject Matter Experts or secondary sources in the biosimilar market and forecast status of market.
• The market penetration and price discount was calculated on the basis of a report by CAGW on target market penetration and price discount for biosimilar.
• The market size was calculated to be more than USD 9 bilion in 2013. The calculation is based on the market for the original drug of which biosimilar has been invented.
• The market figures were confirmed by surveys with Subject Matter Experts or secondary sources in the biosimilar market and forecast status of market.
• The market penetration and price discount was calculated on the basis of a report by CAGW on target market penetration and price discount for biosimilar.
Market Parameters for Valuation (1/2)
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 25
• Based on IP analysis, and competitive intelligence you can determine if your new drug is a high-range, medium-range or low-range drug.
• Assuming it to be a medium-range biosimilar, you can expect a market penetration of 3% in the year of launch and 40% after 6 years.
• Again for a medium-range biosimilar the price of the product will also be reduced based on price discount
• The market share for intermediate years was calculated on the basis of S-curve.
• The cost of conducting clinical trials for FDA approval will require approximately USD 25 million over the next 4 years.
• The average royalty rates on sales in the pharmaceutical sector have been found to be 6%.
• The discount rate has been assumed based on the industry standard for pharmaceutical sector. This has been confirmed by the risk assessment matrix or the SWOT analysis of the technology.
• Based on IP analysis, and competitive intelligence you can determine if your new drug is a high-range, medium-range or low-range drug.
• Assuming it to be a medium-range biosimilar, you can expect a market penetration of 3% in the year of launch and 40% after 6 years.
• Again for a medium-range biosimilar the price of the product will also be reduced based on price discount
• The market share for intermediate years was calculated on the basis of S-curve.
• The cost of conducting clinical trials for FDA approval will require approximately USD 25 million over the next 4 years.
• The average royalty rates on sales in the pharmaceutical sector have been found to be 6%.
• The discount rate has been assumed based on the industry standard for pharmaceutical sector. This has been confirmed by the risk assessment matrix or the SWOT analysis of the technology.
Market Parameters for Valuation (2/2)
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 26
• IP Landscape analysis was conducted to identify relevant IP in the domain. Intensive IP analysis, such as broadness of claims, details of office actions can help in identifying the share of the market that can be attributed to current technology.
• Active companies in the technology domain were identified as they can influence the market captured by the current biosimilar.
• Both these parameters have been factored in the risk assessment matrix while calculating the discount rate that can be offered.
• IP Landscape analysis was conducted to identify relevant IP in the domain. Intensive IP analysis, such as broadness of claims, details of office actions can help in identifying the share of the market that can be attributed to current technology.
• Active companies in the technology domain were identified as they can influence the market captured by the current biosimilar.
• Both these parameters have been factored in the risk assessment matrix while calculating the discount rate that can be offered.
IP Parameters for Valuation
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 27
Risk Assessment/SWOT analysis
Parameter Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5
Demand LevelNo existing
demandSpurious demand Low demand Medium demand High demand
Customer Segment
UnidentifiableIdentified and growing slowly
Identified and small size
Identified and moderate size
Identified and huge size
TechnologyNew and not
tested
New and tested but with marginal
results
New but positive results
Existing and growing rapidly
Existing and well established but not
growing rapidly
ProductNew and not tested in the
market
New and tested but with marginal
results
New but positive feeling
ExistingOld product, re-
launch
Substitute Products
Numerous and very good
Number fairly highFew and very
goodFew but with old
technologyNo substitutes
Strength of the patents
Low; Clustered domain of patents
Moderate; Numerous other
patents
Moderate; Few patents in the
domain
High; Few patents in the domain
Very High; Are key patents
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 28
Life Cycle Analysis
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 29
(Amounts in USD million) ValuesCurrent Forecasted
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Overall Market Size 0 0 0 9516 10372 11300
Market Penetration 0% 0% 0% 3% 12% 22%
Price Discount % 0% 0% 0% 20% 29% 34%
Target market 0 0 0 228 883 1668
Market Share of invention 0 0 0 91 353 667
Market Share 10%
Royalty Earnings 0 0 0 5.5 21.2 49.2
Licensing/Milestone payments 2.5 5 7.5 10
Royalty Rate 6%
Discount Rate 25%
Present Value 6.7 8.9 11.2 2.8 9.2 10.7
DCF Valuation Model (1/3)
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 30
(Amounts in USD million)Forecasted
2016 2017 2018 2019 Terminal Value
Overall Market Size 11532 11760 12002 12239 24,475
Market Penetration 31% 36% 40% 43%
Price Discount % 37% 39% 40% 41%
Target market 2226 2612 2879 3073 6146
Market Share of invention 890 1045 1152 1229 2458
Market Share
Royalty Earnings 75.0 93.5 107.0 117.0 233.3
Licensing/Milestone payments
Royalty Rate
Discount Rate
Present Value 22.5 23.5 22.3 20.3 33.8
DCF Valuation Model (2/3)
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 31
Pre-Tax Net Present Value 117.84
R&D Success Probability (FDA approval Probability) 60%
Post Tax Net Present Value USD 52 million
DCF Valuation Model (3/3)
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 32
Presentation Plan
Case StudyCase Study
AppendixAppendix
IP Valuation OverviewIP Valuation Overview
IP Valuation ApproachesIP Valuation Approaches
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 33
• Valuation of IP requires knowledge of both IP and finance
• Knowledge of IP helps in determining the parameters that affect revenue streams, volatility, and other risk factors
• Important to understand IP factors as they play a crucial role in determining financial parameters that affect valuation
• Knowledge of finance necessary to identify the number associated with the IP factors
• Combination of IP and finance also helps in understanding how real option pricing and Monte Carlo Simulations can be used to assess the impact of estimations on valuation
• Valuation of IP requires knowledge of both IP and finance
• Knowledge of IP helps in determining the parameters that affect revenue streams, volatility, and other risk factors
• Important to understand IP factors as they play a crucial role in determining financial parameters that affect valuation
• Knowledge of finance necessary to identify the number associated with the IP factors
• Combination of IP and finance also helps in understanding how real option pricing and Monte Carlo Simulations can be used to assess the impact of estimations on valuation
Highlights various parameters on which IP valuation can be dependent, such as jurisdiction for legal protection, duration of protection, market attributable to an IP, and risk factors involved
Highlights various parameters on which IP valuation can be dependent, such as jurisdiction for legal protection, duration of protection, market attributable to an IP, and risk factors involved
Help in understanding the various parameters for modeling a valuation solution, such as forecasting revenue streams, royalty rate estimations, accounting for risk premiums in discount rate calculations, sensitivity analysis, real-option pricing, and Monte Carlo Simulations
Help in understanding the various parameters for modeling a valuation solution, such as forecasting revenue streams, royalty rate estimations, accounting for risk premiums in discount rate calculations, sensitivity analysis, real-option pricing, and Monte Carlo Simulations
Structure of IP Valuation Curriculum
Intellectual Property Programs
Intellectual Property Programs
Financial Programs
Financial Programs
IP + FinanceIP + Finance
Intersection of Intellectual Property and Finance ProgramsIntersection of Intellectual Property and Finance Programs
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 34
The National Law University, Jodhpur, is the first university in India to offer Masters Degree, and Honors and Distance Education Programs in IPR. IPR Honors program has eight papers, one of which is IP Valuation.
The National Law University, Jodhpur, is the first university in India to offer Masters Degree, and Honors and Distance Education Programs in IPR. IPR Honors program has eight papers, one of which is IP Valuation.
The PSB Academy, an institute in Singapore, offers a one-day lecture-cum-enhanced learning through case studies training program–Intellectual Property Management for Enterprise Managers. Their training on IP Valuation comprises purpose of intangible asset valuation, commonly-used IP valuation approaches, and IP asset valuation criteria.
The PSB Academy, an institute in Singapore, offers a one-day lecture-cum-enhanced learning through case studies training program–Intellectual Property Management for Enterprise Managers. Their training on IP Valuation comprises purpose of intangible asset valuation, commonly-used IP valuation approaches, and IP asset valuation criteria.
Bournemouth University, Center for Intellectual Property Policy & Management, specializes in copyright, industrial design, patents, trade marks, law & policy, IP exploitation, and legal education. It offers Customized IPR Short Courses—a half-day, a one-day and a two-day course, including IP licensing and IP valuation.
Bournemouth University, Center for Intellectual Property Policy & Management, specializes in copyright, industrial design, patents, trade marks, law & policy, IP exploitation, and legal education. It offers Customized IPR Short Courses—a half-day, a one-day and a two-day course, including IP licensing and IP valuation.
Telestrat Education is a worldwide leader in continuing education seminars. It provides a half-day course on IP Valuation, which includes valuation basics, valuation methods, discount rate, and cost of capital knowledge.
Telestrat Education is a worldwide leader in continuing education seminars. It provides a half-day course on IP Valuation, which includes valuation basics, valuation methods, discount rate, and cost of capital knowledge.
Existing Curriculums
© 2010 Evalueserve, Ltd. All Rights Reserved - Privileged and ConfidentialSlide 35
Research Topics and References
• Estimating growth rate of revenue streams from an IP by using SWOT analysis based on IP-specific risk parameters
• Accounting for IP parameters, such as FDA approvals in the case of a biotech IP, as risk premiums
• Estimation of royalty rates for IP in various technical domains
• Real-options and binomial approach—when treating patents as an asset with an option of creating products based on the patents now or later
• Estimating growth rate of revenue streams from an IP by using SWOT analysis based on IP-specific risk parameters
• Accounting for IP parameters, such as FDA approvals in the case of a biotech IP, as risk premiums
• Estimation of royalty rates for IP in various technical domains
• Real-options and binomial approach—when treating patents as an asset with an option of creating products based on the patents now or later
Research TopicsResearch Topics
• Strategies for Investing in Intellectual Property by David S. Ruder
• Essentials of Licensing Intellectual Property by Alexander I. Poltorak, Paul J. Lerner
• Intellectual Property Assets in Mergers and Acquisitions by Melvin Seminsky
• Strategies for Investing in Intellectual Property by David S. Ruder
• Essentials of Licensing Intellectual Property by Alexander I. Poltorak, Paul J. Lerner
• Intellectual Property Assets in Mergers and Acquisitions by Melvin Seminsky
ReferencesReferences
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