© 2005 the mitre corporation. all rights reserved the telemetry spectrum crunch: an economist’s...
TRANSCRIPT
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
The Telemetry Spectrum Crunch: The Telemetry Spectrum Crunch: An Economist’s PerspectiveAn Economist’s Perspective
ITC 2005ITC 2005Las Vegas, NVLas Vegas, NV
Carolyn A. KahnCarolyn A. KahnThe MITRE CorporationThe MITRE Corporation
[email protected]@mitre.org312-828-9196312-828-9196
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
2
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
Outline
Introduction Context & scope Overview of economic model Methodology Preliminary results
3
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
Introduction
The flight test community faces a telemetry spectrum crunch Amount of spectrum now allocated for ATM is not sufficient to meet
needs and requirements have been steadily growing
ATM spectrum is vital to both commercial and military flight testing There are economic implications associated with the allocation of
spectrum for ATM Economic considerations are important to the proposal currently
before the ITU– Agenda Item 1.5 of WRC 2007 calls for the allocation of additional
spectrum for wideband ATM in the 3-30 GHz band
ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; MHz: Megzhertz; Kbps: Kilobits per second; ITU: International Telecommunication Union; WRC: World Radio Conference; GHz: Gigzhertz
4
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
Context & Scope
MITRE tasked to build a model to evaluate the economic importance of having adequate accessibility to ATM spectrum
MITRE team developed robust economic analysis methodology to forecast future scenarios– Exercised conservatism in modeling costs
ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry
5
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
Overview of Economic Model
Economic model incorporates: Robust bottoms-up ATM bandwidth demand model (BDM) Estimation of probable future scenarios on a test range
over 20+ year period (2004-2024+)– Annual comparison of estimated demand and supply of ATM
spectrum on a range – Calculation of resulting deficiency Gap
Estimated cost impacts of the Gap
Insight gained from the economic model substantiates the criticality of spectrum augmentation
ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; MHz: Megahertz
6
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
ATM bandwidth demand model (BDM)
Developed time series analysis based on statistical approaches and elements of Sarnoff model
BDM consists of two types of ATM spectrum demand– Future On-Going (FOG): average day-to-day requirements to
support routine flight test operations– Max User: requirements to support major new project
Incorporates efficiency gain expected from Tier 1, Tier 2, and iNet
Example Demand Forecast
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Year
MH
z
ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; MHz: Megahertz; BDM: Bandwidth Demand Model; iNet: Integrated Network Enhanced Telemetry
7
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
Future Scenarios Developed scenarios to evaluate potential spectrum
environment in future Investigated 10 cases of ATM spectrum demand
– BDM model uses built-in toggles to explore sensitivities of various scenarios
Range operations base: number of simultaneous operations/users Range operations factor: allows the exploration of the effects of
growth in the number of simultaneous operations iNet usage factor: fraction of spectrum expected to be used for iNet iNet bandwidth reduction factor: expected percentage of reduction
in amount of data a vehicle needs to send as compared to current methods
Maximum user factor: multiplier to vary max user data as percent of original estimate
Tier 3 toggle: incorporates efficiency gain of a Tier 3 technology
Examined 5 cases of ATM spectrum supply– WRC augmentation of 0, 60, 200, 425, or 600 MHz
Analyzed sensitivities among the cases
ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; MHz: Megahertz; WRC: World Radio Conference;iNet: Integrated Network Enhanced Telemetry
8
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
Identified and estimated cost impacts of the Gap
Analyzed multiple scenarios to understand sensitivities
Cost Impacts of Gap
TechnologyInvestments
Test Delays
InadequateTesting
Test Infrastructure Enhancements
2
1
3
4
Nominal Case
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Year
Ba
nd
wid
th -
MH
z
WRC 0
WRC 60
WRC 200
WRC 650
WRC 425
MHz: Megahertz; WRC: World Radio Conference
9
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
There are costs and potential benefits of investments in technology research initiatives
Estimated annual investment costs for ARTM, Tier 1 & 2 technologies, iNet, use of higher frequency bands, and other unforeseen, promising technologies
Potential benefits (e.g., improved efficiencies) of these investments are incorporated within growth rates of demand data
Technology Investment1
ARTM: Advanced Range Telemetry; iNet: Integrated Network Enhanced Telemetry; GHz: Gigahertz; $M: Millions of Dollars
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
Year
Tec
hn
olo
gy
Inve
stm
ent
(in
$M
)
10
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
There are costs associated with unplanned test delays due to insufficient ATM spectrum access
There are unplanned delays on a test range today– One large test delay per week costs $1M– Three small test delays per week cost $50K x 3 = $150K
Today, test delays due to insufficient ATM spectrum access cost $60M per year!
Cost of Delays2
ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; M: Million; K: Thousand
11
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
Examined cost to provide new or additional range resources for flight testing in different geographic areas– Huge cost to programs and national economy
Issues remain:– Are there alternative ranges available far enough away from
existing ranges to allow for spectrum reuse?– Will legal, environmental, and political consent be given to
provide new range resources far enough away from existing ranges accessing ATM spectrum to allow for spectrum reuse?
In the present environment, these are not realistic options!
Test Infrastructure Enhancements3
ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry
12
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
Model incorporates cost of inadequate testing Lack of access to ATM spectrum leads to test point shedding
which leads to reduction in test quality At some point, not testing results in catastrophes and fatalities Based on specific cost of inadequate testing case
30 lives lost!*– GAO: in part due to inadequate test & evaluation**
To meet cost and schedule targets, actual testing conducted was less then a third of that originally planned
$1.6B per incident!*
Inadequate Testing4
ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; B: Billion; *Calculation based on Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation data in internal DoD document; **GAO, 20 February 2001, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d01369r.pdf
13
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved
Preliminary Results
Model does not incorporate the risk of depending on test infrastructure enhancements– Legal, environmental, political, and large upfront investment hurdles may not be overcome– In present environment, not a realistic option
WRC spectrum augmentation of 650 MHz is only scenario in which requirements are met in base case over next 20 years
Our choices today will determine how we will flight test in the futureWill we be able to efficiently develop innovative aerospace products?
Costs are significantly mitigated by:– Reducing testing delays (via spectrum augmentation and/or test infrastructure
enhancements)– Decreasing inadequate testing
WRC: World Radio Conference; MHz: Megahertz;