1800’s France – Guerry Wealthiest regions have more property

crime, less violent crime▪ Opportunities – more things to steal

Lack of education not related to crime 1800’s France – Quetelet

Men more likely to commit crime▪ Especially poor, unemployed, undereducated

Opportunities important▪ Poor areas had less crime▪ Crime more likely to occur in better off areas, committed by poor▪ Inequality within richer areas might breed resentment

Crime consequence of moral character; virtues break down if poor Problem – reporting

Was crime in poor areas under-reported? Undercounted?

More crime during economic slumps Pratt and Lowenkamp: Homicides 1976-94

negatively associated with economic activity(as one rises, the other falls)

Less crime during economic slumps, or no relationship Great Depression (1928-1940) – Henry and Short

▪ General crime rate did not increase; crimes of violence declined Cho 1970: % below poverty level in 49 largest cities not associated with index

crimes During the 1960’s, as the economy expanded, crime and delinquency increased During the 1990’s, as the economy expanded, crime and delinquency decreased

2011 Census Bureau Report 2010 median income was $49,445, 2.3

percent less than 2009 Poverty rate (less than $22,314 for family of 4)

15.1 percent, up from 14.3 percent in 2009 46.2 million in poverty, up from 43.6 million in 2009, a rise of 5.9

percent Highest rate since 1993, 7.3 percent lower than in 1959, first year rate

was computed 11.7 percent of families in poverty, up from 11.1 percent in 2009 22 percent of children under 18 live in poverty, up from 20.7 percent in

2009 Number without health insurance coverage in 2010 about the same

26.9 percent of households with incomes less than $25,000 have no coverage

8 percent of households with incomes of $75,000 or more have no coverage

http://cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/us/2011/09/13/tsr-sylvester-poverty-in-america.cnn.html

Do economic conditions affect crime?

Study times of economic depression

Look at crime over time, during periods of prosperity and downturns

Does unemployment affect crime?

Does economic inequality affect crime?

Compare crime rates in wealthy and poor areas

Is inequality more important than income? Are poor areas that exist in or near wealthy areas particularly affected?

Issue: economic factors supposedly don’t address individual characteristics

But they influence environmental variables such as nutrition and educational opportunities, which affect human development

Strong positive association between povertyand crime – the more of one, the more of theother

Ehrlich - 1940, 50, 60 – association betweenproperty crime and poor households

1974 - Loftin and Hill’s index of structuralpoverty

▪ Infant mortality, education, income, singleparent families

▪ Strongly correlated with State homicide rates

Lee – 1990 - concentration of poverty is important

Stretsky – The more concentrated the poverty, the more robbery and homicide

Brookings map – Areas where 40% or more of residents are under poverty line

▪ 1990 – 14.1 percent of all poor people lived in these areas; 2000 – 9.1 percent; 2009 – 10.5 percent

http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2011/11/03-poverty-kneebone-nadeau-berube

In St. Louis, homicides fell from 267 in 1993to 113 in 2012, a 60 percent drop

But in North St. Louis, in the abysmally poor27th Ward, murders increased from five in2009 to 17 in 2012

Residents are gripped by fear. Even armedgang members are afraid.

Like problems pervade areas of Chicago and entire other cities, including Detroit, Newark and Camden

Economic problems – the effect of declining property values – have battered city revenues, reducing public services and slashing the numbers of police

NY Times article: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/20/us/in-neighborhoods-like-north-st-louis-gunfire-still-rules-the-night.html

2014 report by the Southern California Associationof Governments (SCAG) Poverty in Southern California increased between

1990 and 2012 Six counties measured: L.A., Orange, San Diego, Riverside, Imperial,

Ventura Number of persons living in poverty increased from 1.9 million in 1990 to

3.2 million in 2012 Poverty increase – 69 percent – was nearly three times higher than the

population increase – 26 percent Eighteen percent of residents and 25 percent of children live in poverty Of those without a high school diploma, one in four lives in poverty Poverty statistics are based on income, not cost of living. So the situation is

likely worse. Poverty less of a problem in Northern California, with a more educated

workforce Link at

http://www.scag.ca.gov/Documents/PovertyGrowth_EconSummit120413.pdf

Hypothesis: Unemployment poverty crime

Adult unemployment effect on delinquency

Glaser and Rice: adult unemployment reduces delinquency, maybe because parents are home

Weatherburn and Lind: delinquency high when adult unemployment high

Youth unemployment effect on delinquency

Several studies report strong positive correlation between delinquency and youth unemployment (go up and down together)

Ihlanfeldt -- More than 20 percent of difference in property crime between black and white neighborhoods caused by lack of job opportunities for black youth

By early 1980’s studies had shown a weak positive relationship between unemploymentand crime

In a 1987 review of 63 studies, Chiricos found asignificant positive relationship between unemployment and crime, especially after 1970 More unemployment, more crime Easier to discover in small units (e.g., cities) because they are more

homogeneous than larger units (e.g., States and regions) Disagreeing, Land, McCall and Cohen found the opposite for homicides

As unemployment increased, homicides decreased Land, Cantor and Russell found a weak negative relationship between

unemployment and crime between 1960-1980 As unemployment increased, crime decreased Said that the positive relationship found by Chiricos is more likely to

be found in smaller units of analysis and for property crime

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6987699n&tag=segementExtraScroller;housing

Compare 1982 – 1992 – 2009/10 Is there a relationship between unemployment and crime? Is it perfect? Does the data generally support the theory? Could the recent uptick in inner-city violence represent a lagged effect

of unemployment on crime?

Unemployment Rate (percent) 1970-2010ages 16 years and over - Bureau of Labor Statistics

2010 – 9.6 pct.

1982 – 9.7 pct.

1992 – 7.5 pct.

Crime rates 1970-2009 - UCR

1991 – 758.2

1980 – 5353.3

1991 – 5140.2

1980 – 596.6 Violent

Property

Are things especially bad in the Northeast because of the decline in manufacturing?

White – 1970 -1990: Decline of manufacturing jobs increased poverty and unemployment increased robberies, burglaries, drug offenses Police Issues : “A Tale of Three Cities”

Shihadeh – 1970 -1990: decline of low-skilled jobs increased poverty increased violence

But – property crime rates may have bottomed out in 2011 Is this the sign of a “lagged”

effect of The Great Recession?

Recent rising violence in major cities National Youth Gang Survey:

Gang violence in large cities on the upswing in the 2000’s. In Chicago and Los Angeles, more than half of killings in 2010 were gang-related.

As of the end of June 2012, New York City property crime down 7%. BUT: violent crime is up, with murders jumping 11%, rapes 13% and shootings 7%

Major differences

Start from drastically different levels

Oakland and Newark higher in 2010 than in 2005

New York City remains low but increased 2009-10

Might the flattening out of the downtrend or the recent increases be a “lagged” effect from the Great Recession?

Relative to locale Relative to who’s measuring Relative to how it’s measured Unemployment is an inexact concept

People not actively seeking work are not counted Count the under-employed, poorly paid dead-end jobs, bad

working conditions How people feel about their jobs isn’t measured

Poverty Crime OR Opportunities Crime

Traditional view: Poverty causes crime

Good economy, low crime; bad economy, high crime

Oppositional view: Crime is driven by opportunities

Good economy greater criminal opportunities more crime

Ploscowe - 1931: support for positive relationship betw. economy & crime

Crime increased during 150-year period when the economy improved

Gurr – 1977: support for positive and negative relationships

Crime “increases” may be due to better police reporting

Different causal processes may be at work in each time frame

▪ 19th. Century - economic activity positively related to crime

▪ 20th. Century – economic distress had no effect, but as total productivity increased, so did crime

It takes time for unemployment to cause crime to increase Unemployed don’t feel the full brunt of being out of work until other

sources of support are exhausted Perhaps there is no corresponding “lag time” for increased opportunities

to commit crime Economic improvements immediately increase criminal opportunities

Cantor and Lang - 1946-1982 - US unemployment rates and crime index Immediate “opportunity” effect and lagged “motivation” effect. As

unemployment increased…▪ Robbery, burglary and theft immediately decreased but then

increased the next year▪ Homicide and auto theft decreased, did not increase the next year▪ No effect on rape and assault

Local conditions are very important

In economically stagnant inner cities, there may be declining amount of legal work and increasing amount of illegal work (e.g., dealing drugs)

Involvement in crime and incarceration may limit opportunities

Alienation and diminished expectations

Low-paying work is stigmatized

Violence substitutes for normal social controls

Once people are socialized into illegal activities, they may continue them

High crime areas have many variables thatmight cause crime Poverty Unemployment Single-parent households High density Poor schools

Many are intercorrelated – related to each other – so their unique individual contributions are hard to measure

Land - the most important determinants of homicide were clustered in one factor (group of intercorrelated variables): “resource deprivation/affluence” This factor includes measures for...

▪ Poverty & income inequality

▪ Percent African-American

▪ Percent children not living with both parents

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7371392n&tag=segementExtraScroller;housing

Poverty: fixed concept – below a fixed level of incomeor material goods

Inequality: relative deprivation

Consistent findings

Economic inequality associated with homicide

Economic inequality associated with violent crime

▪ Firearms violence strongly correlated with inequality after controlling for poverty and access to firearms

Is it a specific kind of inequality (e.g., white/black)?

Messner and Golden (1992): increased inequality between blacks and whites associated with homicide

Other studies report mixed results

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/10/nyregion/de-blasio-could-help-the-rich-see-the-poor-living-next-door.html

Comparisons between lowest 20%, middle 20% and top 20% of earners

1979 adjusted after-tax income (as % of total income)

Lowest 20 percent: 15,300 (6.8)Middle 20 percent : 44,100 (16.5)Top 20 percent: 101,700 (42.4)

2007 adjusted after-tax income (as % of total income)

Lowest 20 percent: 17,700 (4.9)Middle 20 percent : 55,300 (14.1)Top 20 percent: 198,300 (52.5)

1979-2007 change in adjusted after-tax income Lowest 20 percent of earners up 16%

Middle 20 percent of earners up 25% Top 20 percent of earners up 95%

(source: Congressional Budget Office and Inequality.org)

Economics may have most direct affect on crime within the urban “underclass” – pockets of extreme poverty

Strong association between poverty and violence

Economic inequality is associated with violent crime

Key factor may not be how many poor, but how many wealthy

When only poor people are around, crime may be lower

Direct effect of poverty on crime is mediated by many other variables

High-crime communities have a host of factors – poverty, unemployment, single-parent households, poor schools

These factors may be a more proximate cause of crime than poverty

For example:

Poverty poor schools unemployment broken homes crime