查理.芒格的智慧 (1)
TRANSCRIPT
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27
Wasco Financial 38
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48
60
61
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Wasco 2008 64
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1994 4 14
Grandmas Law
Latticework of Models
90% 80% 90% 80%-90%
Compound Interest
-
Permutation & Combination
/
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Natural swing
Carl Braun
C. F. BraunBraun
Braun
BraunBraun
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whyBraunwhy
WHY
why
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Bell Shaped
Curve
backup systembreakpoint
critical mass
20
advantage of scale
90%
-
informational advantage
40 30
social proof
winner-take-all
situation
Saturday Evening Post
Motorcross
-
CBS
CBSPaley
Paley
CBS
Bill Paley 10
CBS PaleyPaley
24
Sears Roebuck
42
42
-
Kitty Hawk
15% 40%
Kellogg 60%
-
3 20
4%
NCR
John H. Patterson
Patterson
NVR Patterson
Patterson
Bemidji
2/3
-
Iron Rule 20% 15%
32 1001
17%
17%
17% 10% 17%
harness racing
17%
17%
Santa Anita
off-track betting
-
20 20
20
50%
1/3
IBM 6
IBM
1/3
excess
value
20 30
600
600
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IBM IBM
IBMIBM
IBM6
Mr. Market
2-3
2
3
40
56 2-3
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40 6% 40
6%
18%
Eisner
Wells
Marks &
Spencer
15%30 35% 13.3%
15% 35% 9.75%
3.5% 303.5%
10% 35% 30 8.3%
35% 6.5%
2%
200
1 2
1%
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50
5060 70 IBM
Eisner Wells
Sees Candies
Coizueta
Keough
20%
1/5
1973-1974
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1973 1974
90%GEICO
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GEICO
GEICO
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1996 4 19
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fitness landscape
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404 100 200
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DoranNader
Psychological denial
3
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Milgram experiment
2/3.
ABCD
multimodular
10
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lollapalooza effect
lollapalooza effect
C
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consistency principleoperant
conditioning
incentive-caused bias
incentive-caused bias
social proofSerpico
referral scheme
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2%
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98%
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1995 7 31
autocatalysis
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Pocahontaslion king
50
19621965
100
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marginal utility consideration
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20
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900
10-11%
15
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preponderance
of the evidence,
CEO
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Robert Cialdini B. F.
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Utility-applicability
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Filters and Rules
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What do I specifically and measurable want to achieve and avoid and when and why?
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What is the cause of that?
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Degree of sensitivity if I change the
assumptions
* Has my goal different cause
short-term and long-term
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What available alternatives do I have to achieve my goal?
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What are the consequences?
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Bias
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The hypothesis
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1.
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11.deprival super-reaction syndrome
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2008 9 29 . MidAmerican(
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Charlie Monger
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Socratic solitaire
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lollapalooza effect
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insurable interest[2]
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--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1]1905-1982
[2]
[3]19511953
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[5]
[6]
[7] 1997 1 15
1986 Hayward School
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Samuel Johnson)
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A B
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0-1 1
186
47 26 5 5.2
(Variability)
(
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40
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2 ()
1/2 50%
(Relative Frequency)
1000 400
()
() 400/1000 2000 900
900/2000
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90%
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A BP(A)P(B)
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A A
1 4 6
4 6
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4 6 1-48.2%51.8%
n m
nm 4
3 5
60
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----------
3216
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n(6) n-1(5) n-2(4)
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n r n r
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610/610-6210
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n k
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n
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98% 94.1%( 0.980.980.98)
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(3-2)(0.98)2(0.02)1=99.8816% 0.1184%
845
4
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(0.98)4 (0.02)0+4 /3 (4-3) (0.98)3 (0.02)1+4 /2 (4-2) (0.98)2
(0.02)2=99.996848% 0.003152%
31,726
150 49 6 49/(49-6)!613,983,816
24 1440 365 525,6001400 27
159 (0.8)626%
160 10 0.01%( 0.410)
99.4%(1-0.610)
161 86.5%(1-0.9992000)
() 1
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162 0.05% 50
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95% 50 7.7% 50
92.3%
162 3.9%(1-0.99940) 10
33%(1-0.96110)
162 3.2%((1-p)30=38%) 5
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165 1,048,576( 210)
2.8 1/1,000,000 280 (1/1,000,0002.8
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165 365 365
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36536436334349.3%
36523
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178 10(10000.510)
180 10 10/(10-2)245 45(0.8)2
(0.2)80.007%
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GAAP
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. 1994
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90%
40 30 10
social proof
4
AT&T
IN-BASKET
.
-
20% 15%
3:2
100:1
17%
10% 17% 17%
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