yukari yamashita - eneken.ieej.or.jpeneken.ieej.or.jp/data/5340.pdf · 1 . cnpc-ieej ws. 12 dec....

1

CNPC-IEEJ WS

12 Dec. 2013, Beijing, China

Yukari Yamashita

Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2013

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ)

IEEJ: January 2014. All rights reserved.

Outlook Assumptions: Primary Energy Prices

(Note 1) Prices are for calendar years. Forecast prices are in 2012 dollars.

(Note 2) Japan’s energy prices are on a CIF import basis.

2

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990

2000

2012

2020

2030

2040

LNG (right scale)

Crude oil

Steam coal (right scale)

$/t

← →

$/bbl

History Forecast

Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ


Scenarios

Reference Scenario

Advanced Technology Scenario

Enhanced Unconventional Resources Development Scenario

This scenario reflects past trends as well as energy and environment policies that have been introduced so far. This scenario does not reflect any aggressive policies for energy conservation or low-carbon measures.

In this scenario, energy conservation and low-carbon technologies are promoted for maximum impacts, as each country is assumed to implement powerful policies to enhance energy security and address climate change issues.

Using the Reference Scenario as a starting point, this scenario maximizes the development of unconventional fossil fuel resources, including shale oil and gas. This scenario identifies the global impacts of such development on energy supply and demand.

3 Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013) All Rights reserved IEEJ


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,0001

97

1

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

11

20

20

20

30

20

40

石油換算百万トン

Primary Energy Demand by Region Reference Scenario

Asia

North America

OECD Europe

Non-OECD Europe

Latin America Middle East

Africa

Oceania

Average annual growth

’80-’11 ’11-’40

World 1.9% 1.4%

Asia 4.1% 2.0%

North America

0.7% 0.2% 5.1 Btoe

8.9 Btoe

4

Mtoe



0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040

Mtoe

Global Primary Energy Consumption

Oil 32%→29% [28%]

Coal 29%→25% [20%]

Natural gas 21%→25% [22%]

Nuclear 5.1%→6.0% [9.7%]

Other renewables 11%→13%[18%]

Hydro 2.3%→2.0%[2.5%]

Share: 2011-2040 (Reference) [2040 (Adv. Tech)]

Solid line ------Ref. Scenario Dotted line・・Adv. Tech.



’80-’11 ’11-’40

Total 1.9% 1.4%

Coal 2.4% 0.9%

Oil 0.9% 1.2%

Natural gas 2.7% 1.9%


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040

Mtoe

Asian Primary Energy Consumption

Oil 24%→24% [23%]

Coal 50%→41% [34%]

Natural gas 9%→17% [15%]

Nuclear 2.2%→5.2%[9.8%]

Other renewables 13%→11%[16%]

Hydro 1.8%→1.7%[2.3%]

Share: 2011-2040 (Reference) [2040 (Adv. Tech)]

6 Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013)

Solid line ------Ref. Scenario Dotted line・・Adv. Tech.

All Rights reserved IEEJ


’80-’11 ’11-’40

Total 4.1% 2.0%

Coal 5.6% 1.3%

Oil 3.0% 2.0%

Natural gas 7.5% 4.0%


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040

China India Japan

Korea Taiwan Indonesia

Malaysia Philippines Thailand

Vietnam Singapore Hong Kong

Other Asia Adv. Tech.

Mtoe

17%

14%

37%

China

India

Japan

41%

21%

7%

Oil Demand by Region (Asia)

0.39 bil.toe (19％) Reduction

7

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1971 1980 1990 2011 2020 2030 2040

million vehicles

Other Asia

China

India

Japan

46%

24%

35%

29%

22%

8%

8%

28%

530mil.

270mil.

800mil.

Ownership rate in 2040

Japan：58％

India：11％

China：26％


Car Ownership(Asia)

2011年 2040年 Ref. Scenario

1.2 Btoe 2.1Btoe

(24.5MB/D) (43.0M B/D) Adv. Tech.

1.7Btoe

(35.1M B/D)


Natural Gas Demand by Country (Asia)

Reference Adv. Tech.

8

0

500

1000

1500

1971 1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040

China India Japan Korea

Taipei Indonesia Malaysia Philippines

Thailand Vietnam Singapore Hong Kong

Other Asia Tech. Adv.

China

India

Japan

Mtoe

7%

42%

16%

11%

23%

21%

340 Mtoe

(23％) Reduction

AAGR China India Japan Korea Taipei Singapore

1980-2011 7.3% 12.6% 5.1% － 7.5% －

2011-2040 6.3% 5.5% 0.2% 0.8% 2.7% 1.7%

Indonesia Malaysia Phi l i ppines Thailand Vietnam Other As ia

6.5% 8.9% －－－ 6.2%

3.4% 2.7% 4.6% 4.1% 5.4% 3.6%



0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1971 1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040

TWh

AAGR

’80-’11 ’11-’40

Total 6.8% 2.9%

Coal 10.0% 2.4%

Oil -1.3% 0.2%

Gas 8.8% 4.1%

Oil-fired 4%→2% [1%]

Coal-fired 63%→54% [38%]

Gas-fired 13%→18% [15%]

Nuclear 5%→10% [18%]

Other Renewables 3%→7% [16%]

Hydro 12%→9% [12%]

9

Power Generation Mix by Source (Asia) Solid line: Reference Dotted line: Adv. Tech.

Share2011→2040

Reference [Adv. Tech.]



51%49%

47%44%

30%23%18%15%

12%

13%

15%

18%

26%25%

28%32%

15%

16%

18%

20%

27%38%

42%43%

23%

21%

20%

18%

17%14%

13%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

19

71

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

11

20

20

20

30

20

40

Others

Europe

North

America

Asia

Gt

CO2 Emission by Region (World, Asia) Reference

10

Increase in 2011-2040

8.9

-0.3

4.3

0.1

Asia NorthAmerica

Europe Others

68%33%

28% 22% 17% 9% 6% 5% 4% 3%6% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2%8%

7% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5%10% 8% 10% 12% 14%

16%

9%12%

14%13%

15%

18%

22%

26%

46%

47%

46%

62%

61%

58%

54%

49%

3.3

5.0

7.0

13.8

16.6

19.8

22.8

25.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1980

1990

2000

2011

2020

2030

2040

2050

China

India

ASEAN

Other Asia

Korea

Japan

Gt



52% 61% 59%

68% 60% 55% 51%

44%

15%14%

19%

16%

19%20% 20%

19%

4%

8%

12%14%

13%

3%

5%

6%

10%

2%

2%

2%

3%

30%23%

18%

9%

8%

7%

8%

11%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Adv. Tech.

1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040

Mtoe

Renewables

Hydro

Nuclear

Gas

Oil

Coal

Primary Energy Demand in China Reference Adv. Tech.

11

775 Mtoe (17.5％)

Reduction

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

19

90

20

05

20

11

20

20

20

30

20

40

86

187

100

53

28

20

(2005=100)

47

30

37

47％ decrease

from 2005 level


53％ decrease

from 2005 level

National Target : 40 to 45% reduction by 2020



7.7

8.6

12.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040

Energy Saving (47%)

Biofuel (2%)

Wind, Solar,etc (9%)

Nuclear(13%)

Fuel Switching (5%)

CCS(24%)

Gt-CO2

Reference

Adv. Tech.

CO2 Emissions in China

2040

▲ 4.5 Gｔ-CO2

(▲ 37％)

CCS 24%

Energy saving

47%

Fuel Switching

29%




CO2 World Emissions (by Reduction Measure)

13

Ref. Scenario Adv. Tech. & CCS Scenario


35%

37%


-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

GtCO2

CO2 Emission Pathways for the Overshoot Scenario

(Source)

Clarke et al. (2009), “International climate policy architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios”, Energy Economics, vol. 31, pp. 64-81.

14

Reference Scenario

Advanced Technology Scenario

The range for the 450 ppm CO2-eq.

scenarios in EMF22

Gt-CO2

• At the 22nd Working Group of the EMF (Energy Modeling Forum), the world’s 10 major integrated assessment models participated in considering long-term GHG concentration and the presence or absence of an overshoot.

Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013)

IEA 450 scenario 21.6 Gt by 2035

*

*


*


II. Analyzing Changes Induced by the Shale Revolution

Nikkei (13 November 2013)

Share of global export market for energy-intensive goods

Today 36% 10% 7% 7% 3% 2%

European Union

United StatesChina IndiaMiddle East

Japan

-3%

-10%

+3%

+2% +2%+1%

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013

Japan and EU will lose Export Share by 30%: IEA’s Outlook for 2035

Japan faces Two Challenges (Interview with Mme. van der Hoeven )


-10 -5 0 5 10

North America

Latin America

China

Oceania

Other Asian countries

FSU

Africa

Middle East

Mb/d: Mb/d of oil equivalent

Natural gas

Oil

１６

Changes in Oil/Natural Gas Output

2040 Changes in the Enhanced Development Scenario from the Reference Scenario



17

Assumed Crude Oil/Natural Gas Prices

Enhanced Development and Reference Scenarios

Crude oil

Natural gas (Japan)

Natural gas (U.S.)

Natural gas (Europe)

Na

tura

l g

as (

$2

01

2/M

Btu

) C

rud

e o

il ($2

01

2/b

bl)

Reference

Enhanced Development



Natural gas

Oil Coal Biomass and

waste

Nuclear Wind, solar, etc.

Hydro


Unconventional

Conventional

Reference

18

Primary Energy Consumption Growth

2011-2040 in the Enhanced Development Scenario



19

Energy-related CO2 Emissions

2040

0.2

0.10.0

0.4

-0.8

44.8444.77

43.6

43.8

44.0

44.2

44.4

44.6

44.8

45.0

Reference Fuel switching Nuclear drop Drop in solar, wind, etc.

Biofuel drop Consumption growth through

price drops


Gt



20

Changes in Net Oil/Natural Gas Imports

Oil

Natural gas

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Latin America

North America

Oceania China Other Asian countries

European countries

FSU Africa Middle East

Mb/d2011

2040Reference

2040Enhanced

DevelopmentNet export growth or shifting to net exports

Net import drop Net import growth

Net export drop

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

Oceania Africa North America

Latin America

China Other Asian countries

European countries

Middle East FSU

Bcm2011

2040Reference

2040Enhanced

DevelopmentNet export growth or shifting to net exports Net import drop Net import growth

Net export drop



21

Impact on Real GDP

Changes in 2040 from the Reference Scenario

Note: Effects of a shift from the Reference Scenario to the Enhanced Development Scenario

Reference: Accumulation after U.S. shale revolution

Latin America

India

Oceania

China

Southeast Asia

USA

Japan

Europe

FSU

Middle East



22

Conclusion

Enhanced unconventional energy resources development

• The expansion of unconventional natural gas production will lower prices and as such, promote fuel switching from all other energy sources to natural gas as well as growth in natural gas consumption. The deceleration of nuclear and renewable energy power plant development also limit the CO2 emission cut to a very small level.

• Progress in the development of unconventional resources including shale gas and oil will benefit most of the world economies, facilitating the energy supply-demand balance and dropping prices.

• A net fossil fuel export increase will have a great impact on the Americas. Net importers including China will benefit from slower import value growth. Japan will expand natural gas imports in volume while reducing them in value thanks to price drops. Japan will also economically benefit from export growth in line with greater global economic growth.

Energy conservation and climate change measures (CO2 emission reduction)

• The maximum promotion of energy conservation and non-fossil energy introduction is required to address climate change issues. Reducing fossil fuel consumption through conservation measures will lower CO2 emissions and stabilize energy supply markets.

• The maximum promotion of existing energy conservation and climate change measures and the introduction of CCS technologies will allow energy-related CO2 emissions in 2050 to be cut by 20% from 2011. But the target of halving emissions by 2050 will fail to be attained.

• It would be difficult to reduce the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases to 450 ppm (CO2 equivalent) by the end of the 21st century. However, it will still be possible. To substantially reduce CO2 emissions, innovative technologies including bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) and carbon capture and use (CCU) technologies like artificial photosynthesis will have to be developed and diffused.

Toward developing future energy systems

• Global energy consumption will increase 1.5-fold over the next 30 years. Particularly, Asia will remarkably expand energy demand and raise its import dependence rate, increasing its presence as an energy consumer in the international energy market.

• How to use energy is greatly changing due to progress in unconventional resources development and non-fossil energy promotion trends. Nevertheless, pursuing objectives such as the Three Es plus S (energy security, environmental protection and economic efficiency plus security) remain important.

• Japan can play great roles in leading the world and Asia to achieve sustainable development. Japan must further enhance energy conservation and low-carbon technologies (including renewable and nuclear energy technologies and their security) to meet the needs and expand their deployment.



Thank you very much for your attention!

Summary and PPT available on IEEJ website! http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/whatsnew/413.html Asia / World Energy Outlook 2013


Major Assumptions: Gross Domestic Product

24

10.0

6.2

2.1

6.2 5.8

5.2

2.7 2.62.1

3.2 3.4

2.4

4.1

7.5

2.9

5.26.1

1.4

2.7 2.5

4.6

2.3

3.2

1.5

4.5

3.1

1.9

4.44.9

2.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12C

hin

a

Ind

ia

Ja

pa

n

Ko

rea

Ta

iwa

n

AS

EA

N

No

rth

A

me

rica

La

tin

A

me

rica

OE

CD

E

uro

pe

Afr

ica

Mid

dle

E

ast

OE

CD

No

n-

OE

CD

Asia

excl.

Ja

pa

n

Wo

rld

1980-2011 2011-2040

Average annual growth rate (%)

• The overall world economy is assumed to continue to grow steadily over the medium to long term by almost 3%.

• China’s economic growth is anticipated to decelerate over time, primarily reflecting a decline in its currently abundant working population.

• Meanwhile, India and ASEAN countries with younger populations, are expected to benefit from a growing labor force and will achieve higher economic growth through 2040.



0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Ch

ina

Ind

ia

Ja

pa

n

AS

EA

N

Oth

er A

sia

n

co

un

trie

s

No

rth

A

me

rica

La

tin

A

me

rica

OE

CD

E

uro

pe

No

n-O

EC

D

Eu

rop

e

Afr

ica

Mid

dle

Ea

st

Oce

an

ia

1980 2011 2040Million persons

• Population is expected to increase mainly in developing (non-OECD) countries. • China’s population will gradually age and peak out around 2030. Meanwhile, population will rapidly increase in

India and Africa, thanks to medical technology and food nutrition improvement. • India will replace China as the most populated country in Asia (and the world) around 2025; population should

reach 1.59 billion in 2040.

2011

1.34 bln ↓

2040

1.41 bln (Up 0.07)

China

India

2011

1.24 bln ↓

2040

1.59 bln (Up 0.35)

＊Prepared based on U.N. population projections, etc.

2011 2040

World 7.0 bln 9.0 bln

Asia 3.8 bln 4.6 bln

Major Assumptions: Population



Advanced Technology Scenario Assumptions

【Demand Side Technology】 ■ Industry Under sectoral and other approaches, best available technologies on industrial processes (for steelmaking, cement, paper-pulp and oil refining) will be deployed globally

■ Transport Clean energy vehicles (highly fuel efficient vehicles, hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles) will diffuse further.

■ Building Efficient electric appliances (refrigerators, TVs, etc.), highly efficient water-heating systems (heat pumps, etc.), efficient air conditioning systems and efficient lighting will diffuse further, with heat insulation enhanced.

In this scenario, each country will further enhance policies on energy security and address global warming. Technological developments and international technology transfers will be promoted to further expand the diffusion of innovative technologies.

【Supply Side Technology】 ■ Renewable Energy Wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation, CSP (Concentrated Solar Power) generation, biomass power generation and bio-fuel will diffuse further.

■ Nuclear Energy Promotion Nuclear power plant construction will be accelerated with operating rates improved.

■ Highly Efficient Fossil-fired Power Plant Technology Coal-fired power plants (USC, IGCC, IGFC) and natural gas MACC (More Advanced Combined Cycle) plants will diffuse further.

■ CCS CCS deployment will expand in the power generation sector (new and old coal-fired and gas-fired plants) and the industrial sector (steelmaking, cement and other plants that emit massive GHGs).

Introducing and Enhancing Environmental Regulations and National Targets

Environment Tax, Emissions Trading, RPS, Subsidy Provisions, FIT, Efficiency Standards, Automobile Fuel Efficiency Standard, Low Carbon Fuel Standard, Energy Efficiency Labeling, National Targets, etc.

R&D Investment Expansion, International Cooperation on Energy Efficient Technology (steelmaking, cement and other areas), Support for Establishing Energy Efficiency Standards, etc.

Promoting Technology Development and International Technology Cooperation



58

229

446

668

905

1,710

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2005 2011 2020 2030 2040 2040

GW

History Forecast

Asia

OECDEurope

N. America

Tech. Adv

Photovoltaic and Wind Power Generation (World)

• Renewable energy power generation will expand due to technological development and supportive measures such as feed-in tariff systems and subsidization. •In the Reference Scenario, global photovoltaic generation capacity will expand six-fold from 2011 to 548 GW in 2040 and wind power generation capacity will increase four-fold from 2011 to 905 GW in 2040. Photovoltaic and wind power generation’s share of global generation will increase from 2.3% in 2011 to 5.9% in 2040. •In the Advanced Technology Scenario, photovoltaic power generation capacity in 2040 will be 2.7-fold more than in the Reference Scenario, standing at 1,458 GW. Wind power generation capacity will be 1.9-fold more at 1,710 GW.

2011 229 GW

↓

2040 Ref. Adv. Tech.

905 GW 1,710GW

(Up 4-fold) (Up 7-fold)

Wind Power Photovoltaic (PV)

Wind Power

Photovoltaic (PV)

World Asia

World Asia

2011 61 GW

↓


390 GW 801GW

(Up 6-fold) (Up 13-fold)

2011 9.0GW

↓


172 GW 453GW (Up 19-fold) (Up 50-

fold)

2011 89 GW

↓


548 GW 1,458GW (Up 6-fold) (Up 16-fold)

27

5 89

226

351

548

1,458

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2005 2011 2020 2030 2040 2040

GW

History Forecast

Asia

OECDEurope

N. America

Tech. Adv.

Africa

Source: IEEJ (Asia/World Energy Outlook 2013)



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Adv. Tech.

1980 2013 2020 2030 2040 2040

GW

Asia

North America

OECD Europe

FSU, non-OECD

Europe

Middle East, Africa

Latin America

23%

31%

33%

11%

41%

22%

20%

13%

47%

17%

18%

11%

History← →Forecast

Global Nuclear Power Generation Capacity

• Global nuclear power generation capacity in 2040 will grow by 235 GW in the Reference Scenario and by 495 GW in the Advanced Technology Scenario. Asia will lead the growth and account for nearly half of the global capacity in 2040 in the Advanced Technology

Scenario.

2013

389 GW

↓

2040

Reference

624 GW (Up 235 GW)

Adv. Tech.

885 GW (Up 495 GW)

World

495 GW

235 GW



2011

36MB/D

↓

2040

53MB/D

(up 17MB/D)

2011

48MB/D

↓

2040

62MB/D

(up 14MB/D)

OPEC Non-OPEC

Share in Increase of

Global Oil Production

OPEC 54% (up 17MB/D )

Non-OPEC 41% (up 14MB/D)

More than half of the increase in global oil demand will be supplied by OPEC production. OPEC share will increase to 45% by 2040. Middle East is facing domestic oil demand increases. If the efforts towards more efficient use of energy or swift investment to add production capacity are delayed, global oil demand and supply balance will be tightening in the future.

29

Oil Production Outlook


Mb/d

2011 2030 20402011-40

(%)

OPEC 36 46 53 1.4

Middle East OPEC 26 33 38 1.3

Non-Middle East OPEC 10 14 15 1.7

Non-OPEC 48 59 62 0.9

North America 12 17 17 1.4

　 Latin America 7 10 11 1.4

EU, Eurasia 17 19 21 0.6

Middle East 2 2 2 0.0

Africa 2 3 3 0.7

Asia 8 8 8 0.1

China 4 4 5 0.5

Indonesia 1 1 1 0.3

India 1 1 1 -1.1

Oceania 1 1 1 2.4

Process Gain 2 3 3 1.7

World Total (Reference) 86 108 119 1.1

World Total (Enhanced Scenario) 107 117 1.1

Reference Enhanced Scenario


30

To meet the increasing demand for natural gas, 2/3 of the production increase will come from the Middle East, CIS, Africa, China and Australia. Commercial production of unconventional natural gas including shale gas will increase in Argentina, Mexico, Middle East and CIS. The share of unconventional gas in natural gas production will reach 25% by 2040.

2040: Gas Production

5,411Bcm

Increase from 2011

2,017 Bcm

Share in

increase

Middle East &

CIS

35％

America

23％

Unconventional

Share

Year 2011

11％

↓ Year 2040

27％

Gas Production Outlook

Bcm

2011 Actual 2040 Reference Scenario

of whichUnconven

tional

Share ofUnconventional (%)

of whichUnconven

tional

Share ofUnconventional (%)

North America 808 364 45% 1,043 782 75%

Latin America 218 0 0% 449 127 28%

Middle East 523 0 0% 871 24 3%

EU 287 0 0% 300 19 6%

CIS 868 0 0% 1,229 66 5%

Africa 200 0 0% 420 80 19%

China 103 0 0% 352 127 36%

India 46 0 0% 96 29 30%

Asean 203 0 0% 385 80 21%

Indonesia 81 0 0% 126 22 17%

Malaysia 56 0 0% 85 8 10%

Other Asia 75 0 0% 74 5 6%

Australia 51 6 12% 193 103 53%

World Total 3,384 370 11% 5,411 1,442 27%


Reference


89119

442

645

783

866

108138

200 195 210 234

(19) (20)

242

449

573 631

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1980 1990 2011 2020 2030 2040

Demand Production Net Import

Mtoe

-21%-16%

55%

70%

73%

Dependency on Imported Oil

73%

Oil Demand and Supply in China

Adv. Tech.

Net Oil Import

2011 5.0MB/D

↓ 2040

Reference

12.9MB/D

(2.6times)

Adv. Tech.

10.1MB/D

(2.0times)

Net oil import is projected to expand from 242 million ton (5.0mb/d) in 2011 to 631million ton (12.9 mb/d) in 2040. As a result, net oil import ratio will reach 73% in 2040 from 55% in 2011. In the Adv. Tech. Scenario, oil demand will grow at a relatively slow rate, but net oil import ratio will still increase to 71% in 2040. In order to sustain domestic oil production, continued investments are required to explore and develop oil fields in the western part of China and offshore.


71％


Final Energy Demand in China

Energy demand of heavy industry which has been strong up to now will grow relatively slowly in the future. By contrast, energy demand of the household, buildings, and transport sectors will increase substantially. Although the share of the household and commercial sectors will reach 34% in 2040 (from 31% in 2011) , the per capita energy demand of those sectors will still be lower than the OECD average. In the Tech. adv. Scenario, energy demand of the household, building, and transport sectors is expected to have big potential for reduction.

32

38% 37% 40%

48% 42% 38% 35%33%

5% 5%10%

13%18%

20% 21%

22%

55%52%

42%

31%

31%

32%34%

33%

2%6%

8%

8%

9%

10%

10%

11%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Adv. Tech.

1980 1990 2000 2011 2020 2030 2040

Mtoe

Non-energy

Building etc.

Transport

Industry


432 Mtoe (16％)

Reduction



31

733

1,266

743

157

99

132

195217

348

423

54

408

756

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1980 2011 2040 2040

2,312

1,032

2,216

71％

55％

34％

Coal

Nuclear

Gas

Hydro

Renewables

Adv. Tech.

66

164

3,723

6,100

3,579

837

527

954

1,406699

1,096

1,332

700

1,122

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1980 2011 2040 2040

Coal

Nuclear

Gas

Hydro

Renewables

79％

4,716

9,695

Adv. Tech.

7,974

63％

45％301

Power Generation Sector (China)

Total power generation capacity will increase on average by 44 GW per year, from 1,032 GW in 2010 to 2,312 GW in 2040. The share of coal-fired power plant will gradually decline to 55% in 2040, still representing almost half of the world coal-fired power generation capacity. Total power generation will more than double, increasing from 4,716 TWh in 2011 to 9,695TWh in 2040. Power generation from gas-fired, nuclear and renewables will substantially increase, while hydro power will represent moderate growth. The share of coal-fired will decline from 79% in 2011 to 63% in 2040. In the Adv. Tech. Scenario, generation from nuclear, hydro and renewable energy will sharply expand to substitute a further decline in coal-fired generation.

【Capacity （GW）】【Power Generation （TWh）】

Reference Reference



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